Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, LA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest Late. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Patchy Fog Late This Evening And Early Morning. Showers With Thunderstorms Likely Late This Evening. Thunderstorms Likely. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Thursday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Saturday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1140pm CST Wednesday Feb 8 2023
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night)
Wx map shows high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast, surface low over the ArkLaTex, with the cold front extending south TYR to just west of IAH. The continued tight pressure gradient across the area keeping south winds 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph at most observations this afternoon with the Wind Advisory continuing. Higher gusts likely with the passing TSRA (thunderstorms with rain), as noted at New Iberia with a 47 mph. Radar showing several clusters of showers and thunderstorms across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern Louisiana, and adjacent coastal waters out 60 nautical miles.
A robust mid to upper level shortwave/low over West Texas/Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon will rapidly lift east northeast across the remainder of North Texas/Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex this evening, and more northeast across AR/MO early Thursday. This is continuing to generate sufficient lift, coupled with the available deep layer moisture off the Gulf, to yield numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon and expected to continue this evening. Special 19z LCH sounding indicates the marine layer (at least inland) has eroded away with the sufficient mixing, Surface CAPE of 3138 J/kg, PW 1.35", and 1-3km SRH around 167 m2/s2. Storm Prediction Center continues a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for most of the area, except Avoyelles Parish where an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) and points northeast into NE LA/MS. Damaging wind gusts appear the highest probably of severe weather threat at 15%, with a 5% on the Tornado threat along and north of the U.S. 190 corridor in Louisiana, and 10% for Avoyelles parish.
For precipitation forecasts, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall over the area. Preliminarily rainfall estimates range from 0.5-1.0 inches over SE TX, and 1.0-2.0 inches for C and S LA, with locally higher amounts possible in the heavier thunderstorms.
The cold frontal passage will end the precipitation from west to east over Southeast Texas by sunset, Central and Southwest Louisiana by late evening, and early Thursday morning over South Central Louisiana. Some training of the thunderstorms may occur over Lower Acadiana later this evening/early morning when the shortwave exits the region and the cold front slows up a bit. Do expect the front to eventually push through during early Thursday morning. Clearing skies expected over Southeast Texas, Central and Southwest Louisiana toward daybreak, coupled with diminishing winds, may lead to some patchy to areas of fog. Guidance is mixed with this formation, but will leave patchy fog wording in forecast.
Decreasing cloudiness expected during the day Thursday over most of the area, except lower Acadiana region where lingering cloudiness will linger into the late morning hours. Another deep layer mid/upper level trough will dig further south across the midwest Thursday night and Friday. This will set up a more predominate northwest flow aloft over the region and bring a much stronger cold front late Thursday night into early Friday morning. No precipitation expected with this frontal boundary, but will be followed by colder and drier air filtering across the region.
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Surface high pressure begins to settles over the Ark-La-Tex as we head into the weekend, allowing the pressure gradient to gradually relax overhead. Aloft, an impressive closed low over the north- central Gulf will slide east of the region on Sat, allowing lingering cloud cover to clear out through the mid-day. As a result, a mostly sunny and somewhat breezy afternoon is on tap, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 50s. As winds continue to relax Sat night, combination of light winds and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling, with a light freeze expected to occur generally along and north of I-10. Heading into Sunday, surface high pressure becomes situated directly overhead, providing a very pleasant and seasonal end to the weekend with afternoon highs expected to top out around 60 degrees area-wide amid sunny skies.
As surface high pressure continues to slide east late Sun, winds turn back to the south in its wake, allowing for a steady increasing in low level moisture ahead of our next low pressure system which is expected to arrive late Mon/early Tues. Cloud cover quickly fills in overnight Sunday into early Mon, followed by a return of isolated to scattered showers Monday late morning/early afternoon. Rain chances look best across SE TX on Monday, closer to the approaching low, but will begin to spread east later in the day into the overnight period. By early Tues, the next mid/upper level low is expected to be situated over central TX, while its surface companion will be near the DFW region with a cold front draped along the S TX coast. As both of these features slide east through the day Tues, expect another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Still a bit too early to determine any further details however, this set up looks very similar to the last few systems which brought severe weather to the region.
Satellite imagery now shows SHRA/TSRA and clouds obscuring the areas of dense marine over the near shore coastal waters. Latest short term visibility guidance continues to show 1SM or less visibilities through the remainder of the afternoon for the 0-20 nm zones and Vermilion/Atchafalaya Bays. Last river pilot report had 1/2 mile at Cameron shortly after noon. Thus, keeping the Dense Fog Advisory for these areas through 6 PM.
Otherwise, onshore flow will continue this afternoon and tonight ahead of the cold front. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds and waterspouts. Ending of the showers and thunderstorms from west to east, followed by offshore flow, will occur this evening and overnight with the frontal passage. A secondary, stronger cold front will move across the coastal waters on Friday with strong offshore flow and building seas developing behind the front Friday into Friday night.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.