Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, LA Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. South Swell Up To 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Southeast Swell Up To 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. Light Swells.|
|Thursday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Light Swells.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Light Swells.|
|Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Light Swells.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Light Swells In The Evening.|
|Saturday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 330am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the northern Plains continuing to ridge swd to the warning Gulf Coast, while our old frontal boundary remains stationary over the n-cntl/nern Gulf. And of course, Major Hurricane Ian is noted off the swarning FL coast. Water vapor imagery shows trough.ing in place over the ern CONUS while mid/upper-level ridging was noted from Mexico/warning Gulf up to the Rockies. Combo of these features was maintaining a very dry airmass over the forecast area, which was corroborated by our special 06z KLCH sounding, which showed a mean RH of 25-30 percent and a PWAT (Precipitable Water) below the 10th percentile at 0.6 inches. Thusly, satellite imagery showed clear skies prevailing. Surface obs showed very pleasant conditions ongoing (if you like cool weather, that is) with temps ranging from the mid 50s across much of the northern 1/2 to mid 60s mainly near the coast. Local 88Ds were PPINE.
No significant changes to previous forecast thinking this morning. Consensus continues that surface high pressure will continue dominating over the region through the entire short term as the core of the high gradually shifts ewd. Aloft, ridging will gradually build over the region. Forecast soundings show that moisture will remain rather scant with forecast soundings indicating PWATs (Precipitable Waters) falling to less than 1/2 inch and remaining that way through Friday. Ongoing Cold Air Advection will allow temps to fall a little lower over the coming days, with highs on Thursday topping out in the lower 80s over sern TX...likely staying in the upper 70s for the eastern 1/3 of the forecast area. Forecast mins remain in the 50s for the bulk of the CWA.
(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 330am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
Pleasant weather will persist through the long term period with little day to day changes anticipated. At the start of the period, low/mid level ridging will be diagonally situated from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains, while to our east Ian will be located over the SErn US. Ian will lift northeastward along a frontal boundary through the weekend, allowing the ridge to our west to broaden out and expand across the forecast area. This will result in a couple more mild and dry days, with highs in the mid-80s amid sunny skies.
Heading into the new week, a shortwave moving out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains will bring about a more zonal flow pattern that will continue through the end of the period. Periods of weak onshore flow will resume through the mid week, allowing moisture to slowly creep up and, in turn, a gradual warming trend to commence. Although moisture will be on the increase, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) will remain around average for this time of year (rather than the current well below average) so we should continue to see dry and sunny weather through the end of the period. Temperature wise, afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s Mon-Wed, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s.
(Today and Thursday) Issued at 330am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
Given the lack of overlap between RH values into the upper 20s/lower 30s percent and sustained nerly winds exceeding 10-15 knots, am electing at this time to hold off on any fire weather products again today. Will maintain a mention of elevated fire danger in the morning FWF issuance similar to yesterday.
Issued at 238am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
Extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the coastal waters through 12z tomorrow based on latest blended guidance for forecast wind speeds over the nwrn Gulf. Would not be surprised if later forecasts have to further extend the advisory as the gradient is forecast to remain somewhat tight given the presence of Ian over the sern Gulf/FL Peninsula over the coming days.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.