Marine Weather Net

Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, LA Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ455 Forecast Issued: 1030 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet In The Morning, Then 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.
Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.
Thursday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Friday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.
Friday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.
Saturday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1133pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022

For the 05/18/2022 0600 UTC TAF package.

/issued 1031pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022/

The grids are on track with current observations. No updates needed. 87

/issued 629pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022/

For the 05/18/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION... Just some high level clouds and fair weather cu across the forecast area with VFR conditions. Expect the VFR conditions to last through the night with the exception the potential for reduced visibility at KAEX at MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) levels.

On Wednesday, somewhat breezy south winds will develop during the day. However, atmosphere still looks capped, so not expecting too much in the way of cloud cover or convection and VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all terminals.

/issued 325pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022/

Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday
Mid-afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure sitting over the cntl Gulf ridging nwd toward the coast and on inland through Texas...while a stationary boundary was noted from southern MS through the ArkLaMiss and ArkLaTex to low pressure over the southern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level ridging holding in place from the Mexican Plateau to the southern Plains/Ozarks. Visible imagery and surface observations indicated just scattered/broken fair weather cu in place this afternoon, especially across our LA zones. Just now beginning to see a little convection breaking out across sern LA...closer to home, nothing yet as the ridging aloft continues to put a lid on convective development locally.

Not many changes to the going forecasts this afternoon. As stated this morning, there is a very slim chance for a shower or storm popping up over the lower Atchafalaya Basin through sunset as capping from the ever-present ridge aloft may be weak enough to allow for an isolated cell to develop. Thereafter, the main story for tonight will again be the warm muggy overnight conditions with lows forecast to run 5-7 degrees above the mid-May norms. Fog is not expected to be an issue either, although latest high res guidance does indicate the possibility for some light fog to develop in the good radiating conditions over the northern zones prior to sunrise.

Dry and hot conditions look to linger into Wednesday as the mid/upper-level ridge axis drifts ewd, centering more directly overhead, helping further cap the forecast area. Another round of highs mainly in the mid 90s are progged, except slightly cooler near the coast. With dewpoints topping out around 70, heat index values are forecast to approach 100F before plateauing with drier air aloft briefly mixing down. Wednesday night looks like a repeat of tonight, but maybe a degree or two warmer.

The ridge is forecast to begin breaking down on Thursday as shortwave energy aloft pushes ewd across the center of the country, flattening the mid-level flow. However with very dry conditions persisting aloft, along with lingering weak capping, still not looking at much in the way of rain chances for then. Temps are forecast to remain very warm.

LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]... The long term period will be denoted by a frontal system that will be expected to move through the area over the weekend. The frontal system will bring significant chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will be the potential for shortwave energy to make its way through the area over the weekend. The GFS is indicating thunderstorms in Texas early in the weekend. A convective complex could form and make its way into our area.

Cooler temperatures will be expected over the weekend into early next week with additional cloud cover expected as the frontal system moves through. Since temperatures have been well above average recently, temperatures will be near average over the weekend into early next week.

55

Marine
Inserted SCEC headlines on the warning coastal waters for late tonight into tomorrow morning as the nocturnal jetting increases winds to near 20 knots after midnight. Otherwise our persistent onshore flow should continue into the weekend with winds after tomorrow staying a little more elevated as a series of surface lows slip through the southern Plains, maintaining a tighter gradient, especially for the warning waters. Winds will shift to a more erly/nerly direction for Sunday as a cool front slips into the nwarning Gulf.

25.

NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10am CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-470.