Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, LA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening. A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Overnight. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Friday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: South 2 Feet At 6 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 2 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Wave Detail: East 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. Showers With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 232pm CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...NewARINE,Fire Weather .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain chances will be increasing into the weekend as an upper level ridge will be replaced with an upper level trough and a surface boundary. -There will be an increase in the potential for heavy rainfall over the weekend as the upper level trough and frontal system meet up with tropical moisture and slowly move across. -A secondary surface front on Monday will bring lower rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures closer to the climo norm for early next week. (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 226pm CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Latest upper air analysis shows height falls across the region as the upper level ridge that has been overhead continues to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level low is opening up as it moves into the Southern Plains with a stream of tropical East Pacific moisture ahead of it. Also, a surge of rich moisture from the northwest Caribbean is moving up into the Gulf between an upper level low over the Yucatan and and an upper level ridge east of Florida. With the weakening upper level ridge, moisture values at increasing with the latest upper air data and Goes sounding showing PWAT (Precipitable Water) now over 2 inches. Southerly flow allowing for very warm above normal temperatures. Shower activity has developed with the daytime heating and this activity is expected to decrease by sunset. Overnight into Friday, very moist air mass will be in place creating hot and muggy conditions. Nocturnal shower activity will move onshore before daybreak with an increase in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, again decreasing after sunset. Over the weekend there will be the potential for heavy rainfall with some flood risk. The upper level trough from the open upper level low will push eastward, also moving a surface front into the forecast area on Saturday. Meanwhile, the East Pac tropical moisture and the deep rich moisture from the Caribbean will merge into the region ahead of the trough and frontal boundary. The weakness aloft, and any daytime heating, will work with the deep moisture to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon into evening. A very highly anomalous atmosphere is expected for Saturday into Sunday. Consensus of the guidance shows precipitable water values between 2.3 and 2.5 inches, with the high end guidance depicting PWAT (Precipitable Water) up to 2.7 inches. These values are well above the 90th percentile climo value of 1.94 inches and at or above the max moving average and daily climo max. The 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity will be over 80 percent, and with warm cloud layers projected to be around or above 15k feet depicting good warm rain processes for the convection, the activity that develops will have the potential to be highly efficient precipitation producers, The question is still how widespread for any heavy rain and the timing. That will depend on the lift associated with the upper level trough and surface frontal boundary, and how much instability develops. At this time, the best lift and instability is noted from Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning as the surface frontal boundary moves through. Still, the overall guidance is depicting the strongest lift to be just offshore and into southeast Louisiana. That may limit the strength of the showers and storms. however projected CAPES are still in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range. Therefore, this situation still needs to be respected with the copious amounts of tropical moisture. The forecasted rainfall total amounts through Sunday are averaging between 1.5 and 2.75 inches, with the highest amounts for the southeast portion of the forecast area. Meanwhile, 90th percentile or the reasonable highest amounts are in the 2.5 to 4.5 inch range. Therefore, a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) Potential or between a 15 and 25 percent chance of seeing excessive rainfall that may lead to flash flooding will be outlined for much of the forecast area for Saturday with a Marginal Risk extending into Sunday. At the very least, there is above an 80 percent chance of seeing a wetting rain of over 0.25 inches that is much needed and should help with fire weather concerns. High temperatures over the weekend will be little cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s due to the cloud cover and rain. As an upper level ridge builds over the western US, the northern stream will take a dip to the southeast and allow a secondary frontal system to move across on late Monday into Tuesday that is expected to bring drier conditions along with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s and closer to the seasonal norm. 07/ Marine Issued at 226pm CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The gradient between low pressure over the Plains and high pressure over the southeast US will bring moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas into the start of the weekend. Over the weekend, widespread rain and storms will impact coastal waters, reducing visibility and causing locally higher winds and waves as a frontal boundary nears the coast. This front will move out into the coastal waters early next week with a period of moderate to strong offshore flow. Fire Weather Issued at 226pm CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A very moist and tropical like air mass is expected to move into the region through the weekend. This will increase rain chances and humidity levels. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to be over 50 percent on Friday and over 60 percent for the weekend. Also, the probability for a widespread wetting rain is over 80 percent through the weekend. This should help reduce fire danger as we move into early October. NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. |
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