James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 629pm EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain have decreased for the early week system. Timing for precipitation onset Monday has also been delayed. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. 2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. As of 230pm EST Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and drier conditions are expected for the weekend. Low-level cloud cover has been gradually scouring over central VA this afternoon with a few peaks of sunshine filtering through the cirrus deck aloft. However, the frontal system which brought the widespread rain yesterday has now stalled just offshore of the Carolina coast. This is allowing scattered showers to persist over far srn/SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are coolest across the SE (mid- upper 40s) and "mildest" to the N and W (lower-mid 50s). Low-end PoPs remain in the forecast for far SE VA and NE NC into early tonight, with dry conditions then expected thereafter. Depending on cloud cover and winds, fog could also develop late. Guidance is honing in on three specific locations for the potential: 1) NE NC, especially near the Albemarle Sound; 2) portions of the Piedmont W of I-95; and 3) the MD Eastern Shore. Confidence isn't particularly high in dense fog, so limited it to the "patchy" wording at this time. The weekend will generally be mild and dry. Saturday's highs will trend a few degrees above average with mid 60s expected inland. Closer to the coast, a sea breeze off the chilly water will likely keep those near the immediate coast cooler and in the 55-60 F range. Another good shot at above normal temps is expected Sunday, especially early in the day. Uncertainty remains higher than usual due to a backdoor cold front that is forecast to drop south in the afternoon and evening. A quicker passage would yield cooler temps for the day and vice versa for a slower passage. Regardless, the warmest temps are across for southern and southwest forecast of the forecast area (generally SW of the US-460 corridor) with upper 60s to lower (potentially mid) 70s. Further NE toward the I-64 corridor and Northern Neck, temps likely stay in the 60s. The Eastern Shore will be the losers in this setup as temps struggle to get out of the 50s. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abrupartly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather makes a return Monday through the midweek period. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air will be very important in determining the precipitation type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft. The trend in the model guidance today has been for a slower arrival of precip, along with lighter precipitation overall. This delays much of the precipitation onset until later Monday and Monday night. The slower arrival also means the low-level cold air will be very shallow, likely favoring sleet or light freezing rain/drizzle. Even so, temperatures will be marginal (31-32 F at most) for much, if any, impact. Correspondingly, probabilities from all modeling systems (NBM/GEFS/EPS) have trended down, with the still-aggressive GFS (Global Forecast System) not as aggressive as of 12z. Some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces, could still develop for the Tuesday morning commute. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. After the cooler, wetter start to the week, warmer weather is on the horizon. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large, anomalous upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. For now, have kept temperatures on the warmer side of things as this is more supported. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. Marine As of 230pm EST Friday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions with relatively light flow through Sunday morning. - A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, with strong high pressure building NE of the area through Monday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely for much of the region. Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front now offshore of the southeast coast, with winds over the local are generally NNE ~10kt. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. Weak high pressure centered north of the local waters will continue to ridge down the east coast through this aftn/evening. Winds remain ~10 kt or less through this evening, eventually backing to the NNE late tonight and early on Saturday. Similar conditions expected for Saturday, as weak low pressure slides NE along the front off the Carolina coast, keeping winds in the 5-10 kt range. Winds briefly veer around to the SSE late Saturday, turning offshore to the SSW and Sunday morning ~10 kt ahead of the next system. That next system arrives Sunday, and will bring some rather abrupt sensible weather changes! Sprawling cold high pressure builds S from central Canada into the upper Great Lakes, nudging a backdoor cold front south through the local waters Sunday afternoon and evening. Cold air advection behind that front, along with enough of a compressing pressure gradient will combine for quickly increasing N/NE winds late Sunday afternoon through Monday. In-house wind probabilities are near 80-100% for winds >18kt Sunday night into Monday morning, and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions appear likely for much of the marine area, though winds are a bit more marginal for the upper rivers. On the coastal waters, building wind waves allow seas to increase to 4-5 ft N and 5- 7 ft S Sunday night through at least Monday night, into Tuesday morning over southern waters). 5-6 ft seas over southern waters well into the day Tuesday, before seas finally subside by the middle of next week. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected to return for the latter half of next week. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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