James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1248am EST Monday Jan 20 2020
Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region tonight through Tuesday night...with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 1000pm EST Sunday... A cold front has moved south of the region tonight. Temperatures quickly fell early behind the front under clear skies. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20s across most of the area. Wind Chill values will be in the teens (some upper single digits) later on tonight with wind N 5-15 mph.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through Wednesday
As of 230pm EST Sunday... Strong cold air advection continues Monday with brisk NW winds combining to result in a raw day across the region despite a mostly sunny sky. Bay-streamer clouds are possible downstream (south and southeast) of the Ches bay on Monday as cold, dry air interacts with the relative warmth of the waters.
High temperatures will only warm into the mid to upper 30s with wind chill values staying in the upper 20s for the majority of the area. Winds decrease over land areas on Monday night but remain elevated over the water. Overnight lows range from the mid-upper teens west of I-95 to mid and upper 20s SE.
Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal. Thickness tools in agreement with cool side of MOS guidance envelope, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s despite a mainly clear/sunny sky. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20s...to near 30 SE.
Models suggest the formation of a cut-off low near the GA/SC coast Tuesday night. However, models are in good agreement in taking this wave well offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area, thus minimizing any sensible weather impacts across the local area.
Behind this wave, modifying surface high builds over the Mid- Atlantic and northeast Conus on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend. Slightly less cold on Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
As of 230pm EDT Sunday... Medium range period characterized by dry conditions and gradually moderating temperatures. Rain chances increase by late in the week into the weekend. Forecast period begins with high pressure at the surface and aloft in place over the region Wednesday evening, with quiet weather persisting through Thu night. Highs in the 50s Thu/Fri. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s Wed/Thu night, mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night.
Our next weather maker will come from a developing upper trough over the central Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, with that system then lifting northeast Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. Remaining dry Wednesday night through Friday morning, with rain chances ramping up Friday night and Saturday. Kept Probability of Precipitation in the chance range at this time with typical temporal differences between the deterministic models, though models are reasonably clustered with ensembles for this time range. PWs
Other big story weather-wise will be with quickly moderating temperatures. Pre-frontal warm front will lift across the region over the course of next weekend, with temperatures moderating back toward then above normal Saturday and Sunday (highs in the 50s to low 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s). The attendant surface cold front approaches and crosses through the area sometime late next weekend...but with the Pacific origins of that airmass, expect temperatures to only fall back to around climo normal. In short, outside of the chilly temperatures in the short term, no chances of wintry weather to be found over the next 10 days.
As of 300pm EST Sunday... Latest surface analysis reveals low pressure tracking ewd near the Canadian Maritimes, with the initial cold front now just south of the waters. Winds are now out of the N-NW at 15-20 kt. Seas are 4-6 ft N/4-5 ft S, with waves of 2-3 ft on the Ches Bay. The primary Cold Air Advection then arrives this evening into tonight and NW winds will increase to 22-27 kt with some gusts to ~30 kt for the Bay/ocean (even a few gusts to ~35 kt possible off the MD coast and across the northern Ches Bay with the initial Cold Air Advection this evening). Solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected for the remainder of the night, with 22-25 kt sustained winds over the bay/ocean, and 18-20 kt winds over the rivers/Currituck Sound. Seas build to 4-6 ft tonight across all marine zones, with a few 7 ft seas possible 20 nm offshore. Waves on the Bay build to 3-4 ft tonight. Seas Monday range from 4-5 ft N to 5-6 ft S. The wind is expected to become NNW at around 20 kt for the ocean/Bay/Sound and diminish to ~15 kt on the rivers. However, it looks like winds will fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria for only a few hours on Monday on the Lower James River. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been extended through 12z/7am Tuesday for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, southern three coastal zones, and Currituck Sound. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the upper rivers have only been extended through 15z/10am Mon, as wind gusts should diminish below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds during the day on Monday and remain just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Monday night.
High pressure remains NW of the region Monday night, and another (weaker) push of low-level Cold Air Advection should maintain a N wind of 15-20kt, thus the extension of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Ches Bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters (mainly for seas). There is not enough confidence attm to extend SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island, but there is a chance that 5 ft seas linger for at least part of Monday night across the northern two coastal zones. High pressure slowly builds toward the region Tuesday into Wednesday before becoming centered from PA to the mountains of VA by 12z/7am Wed. 12z/19 models continue to show low pressure developing off the GA/SC coast on Tuesday before tracking ewd to a position well offshore of the southeast CONUS coast by Wed. The wind will become NNE by early Wedam with speeds of ~15 kt N to ~20 kt S, and could reach 20-25 kt off the Currituck Outer Banks. This will likely maintain at least 5-6 ft seas S of Cape Charles through at least Wednesday AM. Seas could certainly reach 7 ft off the NE NC coast during this time. Seas subside to 3-4 ft N of Cape Charles by Tue, with 2-3 ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and slowly slides offshore Friday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ650- 652.