James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers And Tstms Likely After Midnight.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906pm EDT Sat July 20 2019
Synopsis: High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states through Monday. A strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, with high pressure building in from the north Wednesday through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8am SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Latest analysis indicating a weak surface trough across the area with a strong upper level ridge centered from the southern Plains to the mid-Atlantic region. One cluster of tstms is ongoing over northern VA but generally looks to be struggling to hold together while moving slowly ESE. Will have 15-20% PoPs over the far NE portion of the CWA though around midnight in case this is able to maintain itself, otherwise just mostly clear and hot with temperatures still holding mostly in the mid 80s to around 90F as of 9pm (locally even a few lower 90s in the more urban areas of SE VA w/ heat indices still ~105F). It is a bit cooler W of I-95 where most areas are in the lower 80s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s over the Piedmont, and 75-80F elsewhere (some lower possible urban areas of SE VA and the eastern shore with heat index values not much below 85-90F). Certainly a good shot at challenging or setting new record high mins for Sunday 7/21 (see climate section).
.SHORT TERM /8am SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330pm EDT Saturday... H5 ridge remains strong enough to keep the excessive heat going and limit any convection thru 21Z Sun. Models show sct convection dvlpng along a surface trof across the Blue Ridge then drifting se into the warning Piedmont late. Will maintain slight chance Probability of Precipitation across warning most zones. Otw...mstly sunny, hot/humid. Highs mid 90s-lwr 100s with HI values 110-115, highest east of I95.
Still very warm/humid Sunday night. Sct convection across the northern half of the fa due to a weak trof moving east across northern VA. Lows 75-80, warmest once again in urban areas.
H5 ridge begins to break down Monday as a cold front approaches from the NW. Another mstly sunny/hot day before any convection develops in the aftn. Highs in the mid-upper 90s. Grids would suggest a heat advsry will be needed along and east of I85 for heat index values 105-110. Dew points may mix out across the Piedmont holding HI's to arnd 100. Convection develops to the NW then moves se across the region in the aftn. Lowered Probability of Precipitation with 20-40% across the nw two thirds of the local area, remaining dry across the se.
Cold front apprchs Monday night with showers/tstms overspreading the fa north to south thru the night. Will carry high chance to likely Probability of Precipitation attm. Lows upper 60s NW to mid-upper 70s se.
Cold front slowly crosses tracks se across the area Tue. Models show copious amounts of moisture with this bndry along with enough lift to produce some mdt to hvy rainfall. This will end the heatwave with highs upper 70s west to mid 80s se
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 345pm EDT Saturday... The upper trough and associated cold front slide southeast of the area late Tuesday through Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with the timing of the frontal passage, with the majority of any precipitation coming to an from NW to SE through the day on Wednesday. The front likely lingers just to the SE of the area late Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, have a slight chance for a shower or storm across the far SE into the day on Thursday. High pressure will be building in from the north behind the front, leading to drier conditions across the entire region late this week and into next weekend. Wednesday will start out as the coolest day of the forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s across much of the area. Low temperatures will dip back into the 60s with even some upper 50s across the NW Wednesday night. A gradual warming trend is anticipated Thursday and Friday with temperatures climbing back into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will also trend warmer with values in the mid to upper 60s (lower 70s along the immediate coast).
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft remains anchored off the coast with southwesterly flow in place across the region. Winds are somewhat variable with 5-10 knots noted across the Bay and 5-15 knots for the offshore zones. Waves are around 1 ft and seas are running 2-3 ft.
SSW winds mainly 5-15 kt will continue into Monday night, as high pressure remains off the SE coast. Large scale ridging will begin to break down on Monday, as a surface trough precedes an upper level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. SW winds will increase as the pressure gradient begins to tighten Monday afternoon into Monday night, generally 10-20 kt over the waters, highest in the southern Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal waters. Waves will build to around 2 ft, while seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft in the northern three coastal zns. A period of showers and storms will accompany the surface trough Monday evening into the overnight with the potential for strong winds and locally higher waves/seas. A cold front will then drop across the waters Tuesday into Tuesday evening, with winds shifting to the NW or N around 10 kt behind the boundary into Wednesday morning
For today Sat 7/20: No record highs were broken or tied at the 4 main CLI sites, but pending a significant temperature drop through midnight LST, ECG will have a new record high min at 79 and ORF will have tied their record high min at 79. Good chance for several record high mins to be tied or broken for Sunday 7/21. Record highs and record high mins are listed below:
* Richmond: Record High Record High Min
* Sat (7/20): 103/1930 78/2013 * Sunday (7/21): 104/1930 77/1930 * Monday (7/22): 103/1952 79/2011
* Norfolk: Record High Record High Min
* Sat (7/20): 102/1942 79/1977 *today low so far 79F * Sunday (7/21): 101/1926 80/1983 * Monday (7/22): 102/2011 82/2011
* Salisbury: Record High Record High Min
* Sat (7/20): 104/1930 83/2013 * Sunday (7/21): 106/1930 77/2017 * Monday (7/22): 104/1930 80/2011
* Eliz City: Record High Record High Min
* Sat (7/20) 104/1942 78/2012 *today low so far 79F * Sunday (7/21) 102/1987 79/1983 * Monday (7/22) 104/1952 79/2011
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 11pm EDT Sunday for MDZ021>025. NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 11pm EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11pm EDT Sunday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...None