James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Am...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 433am EST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 Synopsis The cold pattern continues into this weekend with most of the region remaining dry. A few light showers are possible Thursday morning across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Otherwise, remaining dry through this weekend with rain chances arriving early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 330am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cold and dry again today/tonight. The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level trough across eastern North America, with low pressure across Atlantic Canada, and a weaker surface low analyzed across SC. This weaker system to our S is associated with shortwave energy passing by to our S. Locally, some mid level clouds are pushing through the region, but all precipitation remains S of the CWA. Upstream, strong surface high pressure (1035mb+) is centered from the central/northern Plains to the mid MS Valley. This shortwave will push to the NC coast and move offshore after 12Z/7am. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions across southern VA and NE NC will persist for a few more hrs, before clearing around sunrise. Temperatures have risen a few degrees over the past few hrs with these clouds, but may drop off as we approach sunrise, with lows from the upper teens to lower 20s inland (locally warmer in urban areas) and 20s to around 30F along the coast. Cold, dry weather continues today, despite a mainly sunny sky after any clouds early. It will be somewhat breezy with gusts to 15-20mph through mid afternoon since the surface high will remain well off to our W today. Highs will range from around 40F across the NW to the low-mid 40s elsewhere (about 10-15F below normal). High pressure builds in later tonight, bringing diminishing winds and a clear sky. It may stay mixed enough across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA (County Warning Area) to keep lows slightly warmer, but nevertheless, lows will be very cold, generally in the upper teens to lower 20s, with mid- upper 20s near the coast. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night As of 345am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Moderating temperatures Wednesday-early Thursday, turning sharply colder and blustery later Thursday. - SW winds become breezy Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, shifting to the WNW and remaining strong and gusty Thursday. - A few light rain showers are possible across the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure slides off the Southeast coast on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong clipper system quickly moves across the Great Lakes and into New England Wednesday night into Thursday. While this system remains far enough N where most impacts remain outside of the FA, the pressure gradient tightens between that low and a strong area of high pressure building in from the SW behind it. This will allow for winds to become SW and breezy with gusts up to 20- 25 mph Wednesday afternoon. Slightly warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 40s. SW winds remain breezy overnight Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, keeping lows milder, generally from the mid 30s to near 40F. The latest model trends are for a slightly faster frontal passage Thursday, perhaps enough to see a chance for rain showers mixing with or ending as snow showers across the northern Neck/eastern shore late Thursday morning. This system will still be moisture starved (any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast would be a trace to a few hundredths). BUFKIT soundings show only a brief period where there could be saturation above -10C for ice in the clouds and anything more than sprinkles or flurries. Will maintain a slight chance for rain showers early Thu to metro RIC, with any rain/snow showers confined to the northern Neck and eastern shore by late morning, ending after early afternoon. The bigger story with this system will be the winds, increasing behind the cold front passage with gusts up to 30-40 mph, highest across the Eastern Shore. Given the slightly earlier FROPA, highs Thu have trended a bit cooler with temps now expected to rise only into the low- mid 40s NW to the low-mid 50s NE NC, with temps likely to drop during the afternoon. Very cold air filters in Thursday night with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s inland and mid- upper 20s along the coast. Will note that winds are not expected to be calm Thursday night with wind chills dropping into the teens across the area, perhaps close to 10F inland. Long Term - Friday Through Monday As of 415am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Temperatures remain cold Friday-Sat, a gradual warmup Sunday into Monday. - Rain chances increase by early next week. Model consensus places strong surface high pressure (~1035mb) in the vicinity of the mid-MS Valley Friday morning, with intense low pressure (<975mb) moving N through Atlantic Canada. While less windy compared to Thursday, the pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions going, especially for the eastern shore (gusting to ~30 mph). Highs will only be into the lower 40s for most, possibly struggling to get out of the upper 30s for northern zones). Mostly sunny, but there will tend to be some afternoon clouds. especially across the NE as reinforcing shortwave dives SE through the base of the upper trough. The surface high pressure builds E-SE Fri night into Sat, reaching closer to the area for light winds and a mainly clear sky with another cold night (lows 15-20F well inland and ranging through the 20s along the coast). Latest LREF ensembles show some model spread, the GEFS being faster and farther N and bringing the surface high into the area early Sat, while the ENS and GEPS are slower and farther south. Towards the end of the weekend into early next week, the GFS/GEFS suggest rain would be likely by Monday while the other models keep things drier with stronger upper level ridging across the SE CONUS. Will maintain a chance for showers in the forecast Monday but will keep Probability of Precipitation at or below 50% given the model spread. Sunday turns milder with highs into the upper 40s to mid 50s, with highs Monday well into the 50s and perhaps into the 60s if the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) verifies. Marine As of 330am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages... - Marginal Small Craft conditions are possible across portions of the Chesapeake Bay today. - Much stronger winds are expected Wednesday night through Thursday night in advance of and following a cold front. A long duration period of sustained winds in excess of 25 kt with gusts in excess of 35 kt are likely for most of the area. Gale Watches remain in effect for the Bay and coastal waters and have been added for the lower James River and Currituck Sound. Morning analysis shows strong (1036mb) surface high pressure over the central CONUS as a trough aloft over New England moves away into the Atlantic. NW winds on the western periphery of high pressure is leading to winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the Ches Bay and Atlantic coastal waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas averaging 2-3 ft offshore. Winds will hover near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds today over portions of the Ches Bay but recent hi-res guidance keeps winds just below criteria. However, a short-fused SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be required if winds are even a tad higher than currently forecast. High pressure builds toward the region tonight and should make its closest approach around sunrise on Wednesday, leading to a period where winds fall back to 5-10 kt. Thereafter, high pressure is shunted to the S and SE ahead of strong low pressure developing across the Great Lakes. The gradient tightens considerably by late Wednesday afternoon with SW winds increasing to 20-30 kt by the evening hours and 25-35 kt after midnight. Wind probs continue to show a high probability of gale conditions across the region Wednesday night through Thursday with winds gradually becoming W and NW Thursday afternoon. Gusts will likely exceed 40 kt for a substantial period of time over the Atlantic coastal waters from late Wednesday evening through early Thursday afternoon. Opted to add the lower James River and the Currituck Sound to the ongoing Gale Watch. Confidence in gale conditions is somewhat lower for the upper rivers but with a pressure fall/rise couplet of 7-10mb/6hrs on both sides of the cold frontal passage, suspect these waters will be added to the gale headlines in subsequent forecasts. Winds are forecast to decrease later Thursday afternoon into the evening but are expected to remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through most of Friday before high pressure builds toward the area and relaxes the pressure gradient. Seas are forecast to build to 6-10 ft N and 4-7 ft S, with 3-5 ft waves expected in the Ches Bay late Wednesday through Thursday. Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas offshore likely remain near/above 5 ft into early Friday evening. Tides / Coastal Flooding With the strong SW winds expected Wednesday night into Thurs morning, there is increasing potential for blow out tides during the low tide cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many lower bay sites and some ocean sites dropping to at least -1.0 ft MLLW. These low water levels could impact navigation in some areas Thu. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for ANZ630>634-638-654-656-658. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for ANZ650-652. |
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