James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...W Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely In The Evening. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 123pm EDT Tuesday July 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the 18z TAFS A Flood Watch has been issued for the Piedmont, central and southeast Virginia, and northeast North Carolina. The watch is in effect from 3pm to midnight. A Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) has been added for Thursday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A Flood Watch is in effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could also approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. 2) Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. As of 655am EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A Flood Watch is in effect for the Piedmont, central and SE VA, and NE NC this afternoon and evening. Widespread slow- moving showers and thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding, particularly in urban, poor drainage, and other flood prone areas. Storms could also approach severe levels with damaging winds the primary threat. GOES mid and upper level water vapor channels depict a broad trough from the eastern Great Lakes through the Northeast, with the subtropical ridge now suppressed to our south. The surface pattern is rather nebulous. However, there is subtle boundary that extends from northern VA to the central Delmarva. The airmass remains very moist with the 07z Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis showing PW values (Precipitable Water values) of 2.0-2.2". The boundary will gradually push S today and become a focal point for showers/thunderstorms by this afternoon and evening. The airmass will remain very moist with even EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance showing mean PW values (Precipitable Water values) of 2.2-2.3" by this afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but our area is progged to be in the RRQ of a 65kt jet at 200mb along with some troughing at 500mb, which should be enough forcing given moderate to strong instability. The HREF and REFS remain consistent in showing a region with ~30% chance of 3"/3hr primarily along and S of the I-64 corridor, with localized pockets of 4-6" possible. This is where the Flood Watch covers. However, there could be some localized heavy rain front the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore as well. There is also a marginal severe risk. However, lapse rates are weaker with more deep moist heavy rain soundings. Therefore, the severe risk should be less than prior days, and once again, the primary threat would be localized damaging wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-normal temperatures are expected for most of this week. Additional chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms added for Thursday. A weak flow pattern very typical for the middle of summer with daily chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing midweek into next weekend. Chance Probability of Precipitation are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday (concentrated more inland Wednesday), with lower Probability of Precipitation Friday with downsloping westerly flow. There is increased 500mb flow Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough, and a moist unstable airmass will be in place. Therefore, some strong to severe tstms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages late this week into next weekend, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, Wednesday will not be quite as hot with onshore flow behind Tuesday's front. Mid 80s are forecast Wednesday and evening some upper 70s are possible along the immediate coast of the Eastern Shore. Another front may cross the area Saturday with higher Probability of Precipitation returning. Marine As of 330am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are expected this week. Light southerly flow becomes NE and briefly increases to 10-15 kt Wednesday morning. - Elevated winds and waves from strong thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon and evening. Generally light flow is ongoing this morning. Benign conditions are expected to continue through tonight, outside of any thunderstorms which could produce locally higher winds and waves this afternoon and evening. A weak front will slowly drop south through the waters later this evening into tonight. This will shift winds to the E-NE across the waters. Additionally, 10-15 kt winds are expected on the north side of the front for a brief period Wednesday morning, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible on the ocean. Winds gradually relax heading into Wednesday afternoon, but remain onshore out of the E. The front will lift back N Thursday with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) S-SE flow Thursday, turning to the SW Friday into early Saturday. Another front is likely to drop S early Saturday with winds briefly becoming NW Saturday afternoon and then potentially NE Sunday. Seas of 2-3 ft continue today into tonight. As NE winds increase Wednesday morning, seas are forecast to briefly build to 3-4 ft nearshore, with some potential for 4-5 ft seas in the far offshore waters of MD. Waves at the mouth of the bay may also increase to ~3 ft, with 1-2 ft elsewhere. Beyond Wednesday, seas return to a typical 2-3 ft with waves 1-2 ft in the bay and rivers. Equipment KAKQ radar is down due to mechanical issues without an estimated time of return. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ048-060>062- 065>069-079>090-092-097-098-509>518-520-523>525-528>531. Marine None. |
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