Marine Weather Net

James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 PM

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ638 Forecast Issued: 340 PM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot Late.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
Mon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Rain.
Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
418pm EST Thu Jan 21 2021

Synopsis
Dry and not as cold tonight. Another dry frontal passage will usher in cold Canadian high pressure from the northwest over the upcoming weekend.

Near Term - Through Friday Night
As of 350pm EST Thursday... Afternoon surface analysis shows deep low pressure north of the Great Lakes with high pressure over NE Gulf of Mexico. Skies have cleared out this afternoon in the wake of clouds and a few light showers this morning. Downsloping W-SW winds and ample sunshine have allowed temps to warm into the low to mid 50s. Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds, especially across the south and southwest portions of the area. Light winds will also keep the boundary layer stirred up tonight, resulting low temps only falling into the low and mid 30s.

Continued dry on Friday with winds turning westerly/downslope. Went a few degrees above guidance for high temps after collaboration with neighboring offices, highs in the mid to upper 50s with a few low 60s possible in NE NC. Highs only in the low 50s for the eastern shore with westerly winds over the cooler Ches Bay waters. A dry cold front is still expected to cross the region Friday night with cold high pressure building into the region for the weekend. Gusty winds Friday night will keep temps from falling too far but overnight lows still fall into the mid 20s to low 30s NW-SE.

Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday
As of 350pm EST Thursday... Dry air filters into the area on Saturday with conditions remaining breezy through the afternoon. High temps will struggle to get into the 40s across the northern counties with low and mid 40s to the south. High pressure overhead will allow winds to fully decouple Saturday night and with clear skies and dry air in place, lows tumble into the upper teens and low 20s for most of the area with a few mid 20s SE.

High pressure begins to move offshore on Sunday with southerly return flow setting up ahead of the next approaching system. High temps will remain seasonably cool in the low to mid 40s with clouds increasing from north to south through the day.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
As of 430pm EST Thursday... The storm system moving in for Monday looks to be more rain than anything else. Precip might start off as light snow or sleet Monday morning, but warm air moves in aloft as the surface begins to "warm" into the 30s shortly after sunrise Monday. GFS is hinting that a wedge may develop across the VA Piedmont as steady rain moves in Monday morning. Freezing rain is possible for most of the day on Monday for Louisa, Fluvanna, and western Goochland counties with temperatures hovering around 32F and significant warm air aloft (~40F between 3000ft and 4000ft agl). For the rest of the area, Monday will be a cold and wet day with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the low pressure moves off the coast Tuesday morning and a strong area of high pressures moves in, there may be a chance to see scattered rain/sleet/snow showers across central VA and MD with temperatures in the low 30s. High pressure builds in for Tuesday evening and Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be tricky. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) keeps a cold front west of the area Tuesday with temperatures reaching the mid 50s. While the GFS brings the cold air in faster with highs in the low 40s.

Cold air will be in place Wednesday night with high pressure (~1040mb) centered near the Hudson Bay and extending south into the area. I went a little lowers than guidance for temperatures Wednesday morning. Lows in the low to mid 20, possible could be as low as the upper teens west of I-95.

Dry weather for Wednesday day with high pressure over the area. Highs are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Next storm systems approaches the area from the southwest bring a treat of accumulating snow for Thursday.

Marine
As of 350pm EST Thursday... This afternoon, winds are generally SW 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure in SE Canada tracks well to our north through early tonight. A weak trailing cold front from that low will track over the local waters from W to E this evening into early tonight. Behind the cold front, winds will become W around 15 kt over the Bay and rivers and 15-20 kt over the coastal waters. Winds may occasionally gust to 18-20 kt over the Bay, particularly in the 03-06z timeframe immediately behind the FROPA, but this is expected to be short lived with low confidence. Therefore, will refrain from issuing a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for this surge, although a MWS may be needed in future updates.

Winds remain steady through Friday morning before gradually shifting to WNW and diminishing to 10 to 15 kt Friday afternoon. Another cold front pushes from NW to SE over the local waters Friday evening/Friday night. This reinforcing cold front brings with it stronger Cold Air Advection along with a tightening pressure gradient from the interaction between low pressure moving off the NE coast and a strong area of high pressure building SE into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a period SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) Friday night through at least Saturday and perhaps through Saturday night due to NW winds 18-25 kts in the Bay and 20-25 kts over the coastal waters with gusts 25 to 30 kts (some gusts to 34 kt will be possible on Saturday over the coastal waters). Winds subside Saturday night as high pressure builds into the local area from the NW.

Low pressure is expected to track across the Mid-Atlantic from Monday night/Tuesday with another potential low pressure system late next week. There is still too much uncertainty with respect to the exact track/strength of these lows, but at least a couple periods of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely next week.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Friday to 7am EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654.