James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1006am EDT Sunday July 13 2025 Synopsis An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week with scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible into the mid week period before heat builds Thursday and Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 1005am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Showers and storms are expected again today, mainly west of the Chesapeake Bay. - Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will accompany the slow-moving convection this afternoon and evening with continued threat for localized flash flooding. Cloud cover has struggled to break up across a majority of our forecast area this morning, which has led to a delay in temperatures increasing. This has likely stunted morning convective development like we experienced yesterday. A quick look at Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis shows that MLCAPE is sitting at between 500-1500 J/kg this morning, which is still modest for this time of day. Soundings from across the region measured a range of 1.55-2.10" PW values (Precipitable Water values) and negligible shear values. A weak front remains draped across our area, which will likely serve as the main initial trigger for convection. Outflow boundaries will then become the secondary lifting mechanism that will induce additional storm development as the day. progresses. Another day of scattered convection is in store for the local area, with a similar environment to what we have seen over the past few days. Instability will increase as the cloud cover breaks and temperatures are able to rise. Convective development will likely start a little later than yesterday, with early to mid- afternoon the timeframe expected. With the heavy rainfall the Tri-Cities saw yesterday and the very low flash flood guidance for that area, we are considering doing a targeted Flash Flood Watch for the Richmond metro and adjacent areas. We will continue to monitor convective development trends over the next few hours and see how the atmosphere has recovered since yesterday wash out. WPC has the western portion of our forecast area in a Slight ERO, and areas from the Richmond metro though just west of the Hampton Roads area in a Marginal ERO. Temperatures today are forecast to reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Areas immediately along the coast and Eastern Shore are forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s thanks to the onshore flow. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night As of 330am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms. A Flood Watch may be necessary for portions of the area. - Unsettled pattern continues into Tuesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. Warm and humid again on Monday with greater coverage of showers and storms expected, mainly across the western 2/3 of the area. Sounding like a broken record here but we will again see ample instability and weak shear along with anomalously moist conditions, resulting in slow-moving showers and storms. Depending on how today plays out, a Flood Watch may be necessary for portions of the area as cumulative days of rainfall and soil saturation require less additional rainfall to flood. WPC has most of the area in a slight ERO with a marginal ERO from eastern North Carolina NE through Norfolk and into the Eastern Shore. The highest Probability of Precipitation are focused west of the Chesapeake. Storm Prediction Center does not have a severe risk for the area on Monday but gusty winds will certainly be possible in water-loaded downdrafts. Showers and storms likely linger later into Monday evening and even the overnight hours as the focus for precipitation shifts east toward the coast. High temps range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s inland. Lows again in the 70s. The front stalls west or NW of the area on Tuesday, bringing yet another day of showers and storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. More clouds through the day result in cooler high temps, generally in the mid 80s inland with upper 80s along the coast. Highest Probability of Precipitation are favored over the Piedmont, tapering to chance along the coast. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday As of 330am EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Stagnant pattern continues mid to late week with daily shower and storm chances - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Rinse and repeat pattern continues Wed-Sat with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Upper ridging builds across the area Thursday and especially Friday, resulting in the potential for Heat Advisories. Rising heigheights aloft argue for lower convective coverage but have continued with the blended guidance in the extended forecast which maintains 30-50% Probability of Precipitation (highest W). Highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, increasing to the low/mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Friday still looks to be hottest day of the forecast period. Heat indices 100-104F are likely Thursday with some areas of 105+F on Friday. Perhaps a touch cooler on Saturday with triple digit heat indices confined to the southern third of the area. Marine As of 330am EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High pressure is centered near Nova Scotia early this morning and extends SW toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. A trough is located inland over the Piedmont, with weak low pressure well E of the VA coast. The wind is primarily E 5-10kt early this morning, with seas ~2ft, and waves 1ft to occasionally 2ft in the Ches. Bay. Additionally, patchy marine fog is possible early this morning. A similar pressure pattern continues today into this evening with the wind becoming SE and generally remaining 5-10kt, although a later aftn/evening diurnal increase to 8-12kt is expected in the Ches. Bay. High pressure retreats E of the Canadian Maritimes later tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, subtropical high pressure rebuilds off the Southeast coast through the middle of the week. This will allow the wind to become S to SW 5-10kt early in the week, with a mid-afternoon to early evening sea-breeze influenced shift to SSE Monday and Tuesday. The pressure gradient tightens Wednesday night into Thursday as low pressure tracks NE of the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. This will potentially bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions in a SW wind, with the best chance in the Ches. Bay. The wind diminishes by Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes due to a weakening front dropping to the region. Seas will mainly be ~2ft through Tuesday and then 2-3ft by Wednesday, with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft (2-3ft nearshore) by Wednesday night and Thursday, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Aftn/evening showers/thunderstorms will have limited coverage over the marine area today, with higher chances during the aftn/evening hours Monday through Wednesday. The main hazards with thunderstorms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced vsby in heavy rain. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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