James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S With Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1241pm EST Wednesday Dec 24 2025 Synopsis Dry and mild conditions prevail today. A backdoor cold front slides across the area later Christmas Day, and will bring cool and damp conditions Friday. The weekend turns a bit warmer, but will be mostly cloudy and unsettled. Dry and colder next week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 320am EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Mild to warm and dry today, increasing clouds tonight. Latest surface analysis indicates low pressure over the St Lawrence Valley with a trailing cold front extending SW to the lower OH/TN Valley. There is another weak surface low along the front pushing into northern VA and the pressure gradient has kept the airmass mixed early this morning, resulting in fairly mild temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s (though some sheltered rural areas have dipped into the 30s). It is mostly clear, except for BKN clouds on the MD eastern shore. The cold front will act more as a dew pt boundary as it passes through the region over the next few hrs with little in the way of cold air expected today. In fact, highs today will be rather warm for Christmas Eve, especially over inland areas. Followed close to the the latest blended guidance, mixing in some HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) for today's temperatures as this preformed quite well on Tuesday. Other than increasing high clouds later this afternoon. a mostly sunny sky will prevail, allowing for highs into the 60s across much of central, and south central VA and interior portions of NE NC (potentially mid-upper 60s in the far SW). For the eastern shore and near the coast in SE VA, the northerly wind off the Bay will keep temperatures in the 50s (probably falling into the upper 40s by late aftn). High pressure from the Great Lakes settles into the area this evening, with mid/high clouds increasing overnight as the next, fast moving surface low tracks ESE from the OH Valley to the central Appalachians. With diminishing winds and only limited high clouds in the evening, expect temperatures to fall into the 30s (localized upper 20s NE). Steady or slowly rising temperatures overnight as a low chc for rain may reach into the piedmont a little before sunrise Christmas Day. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night As of 330am EST Wednesday... Key Message: - Remaining mild Christmas Day, with a chance for (mainly) morning showers. - Chilly Friday in the wake of a backdoor cold front. Rain chances increase in the aftn/evening, with some mixed wintry precipitation generally confined to the far north. The fast moving slides across the local area Christmas morning, bringing shallow overrunning moisture to support scattered showers, primarily from around sunrise through noon. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through 00z Friday remains less than 0.10". Depending on the clouds and showers, temperatures Christmas Day remain a bit uncertain, though will generally be mild. With partial afternoon sunshine, the latest forecast is for high into the low-mid 60s south of I-64 (warmest down near the NC border in south central VA). Meanwhile, NE portions of the FA will tend to be cooler with highs ranging through the 50s (upper 40s coastal ern shore). Behind the system, strong (near 1035mb) high pressure trailing the system will shunt the front south through the region Thursday afternoon and night. Mostly cloudy and turning colder Thu evening, but latest trends suggest some clearing moves back in from the NNE overnight. Lows will be coldest across the eastern shore (mid-upper 20s), with low-mid 30s for most of the remainder of the area (35-40 far south). On Friday, latest model trends are for a slower arrival of precipitation as the surface high builds over Quebec and ridges S into the local area. Turning cloudy, but we may not see much in the way of any precipitation until the afternoon. This will allow the airmass to modify enough to keep p-type mainly just rain with the exception of the northern tier. At this time, warmer air aloft rapidly moves in from the SW, so there is minimal chance for any snow. Latest ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensembles have trended lower with any accumulating snowfall for anywhere in the AKQ CWA (County Warning Area) (even the MD ern shore). Thermal profiles mostly favor a period of sleet or a rain/sleet mix over the north Fri aftn/early evening. While a few sleet pellets will be possible briefly as far south as RIC, no impacts are expected other than perhaps over the MD eastern shore (and even here it would be minimal with temperatures above freezing). The initial surface low weaken over the upper OH Valley late Friday, with secondary surface low pressure developing off the VA-NC coast Fri night. The higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will be Fri night (locally ~0.50") but but this time the stronger onshore flow brings milder Atlantic influence so all of this will become just rain with temperatures well above freezing. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday As of 355am EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Remaining mostly cloudy to start the weekend - A strong cold front crosses the area late in the weekend. A few showers are possible with this frontal passage, followed by markedly colder conditions Monday night and beyond. Overall, the weekend temperatures have trended cooler as the local area looks to stay mostly cloudy Saturday, with the onshore flow continuing. Highs Sat will hold in the 40s N with 50s S (which is below NBM guidance). The central CONUS ridge finally translates east by Sunday, but the models do not amplify the ridge as much as past runs, so Sunday has also trended cooler for highs- mostly in the 50s (with 60s confined to the far south). The eventual cold front passage late in the weekend has trended slower, now slow to exit the coast on Monday. Will have high chance to likely Probability of Precipitation later Sunday through Sunday night/early Monday. The slower timing will keep the colder airmass delayed with lows Sunday night in the 40s to lower 50s, with highs Monday in the 40s NW and 50s SE. It looks to stay dry from Monday afternoon into the middle of next week, but with below normal temperatures Tue-Wed. Marine As of 300am EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include the Chesapeake Bay, as well as the coastal waters and Currituck sound from this morning into the evening. - Another period of widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected behind a cold front Thursday night. A low pressure system centered just to the north of Lake Ontario extends a cold front that approaches the local area this morning. Ahead of the front, W/SW winds are around 5-10 kt. Winds will increase this morning and afternoon to NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal waters behind the cold front. There is little Cold Air Advection with this front, so the winds are driven by the tightening pressure gradient and pressure rises. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the coastal waters and the Currituck Sound and have been expanded to include the bay for a short duration this morning and early afternoon. While this expansion remains marginal as criteria is likely met only for a few hours, local wind probs have increased for sustained winds to 18 kt to around 50% for the middle bay zones, as well as high-res models showing a surge of winds behind the front. High pressure then settles over the eastern CONUS tonight into Thursday morning, which will allow winds to decrease overnight and become southerly as a weak warm front reaches the area. Then another cold front will dive towards the area later Christmas Day and N winds behind the front increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. The Cold Air Advection with this front is stronger than the front today, so SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) appear to be likely Thursday evening into Friday morning. Generally benign marine conditions are expected Friday through the weekend. The next system in early next week may bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Seas are generally 2-4 ft today and through Thursday afternoon with waves 1-2 ft in the bay. 4-6 ft seas (locally higher) and 2-4 ft waves are expected Thursday night into Friday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Thursday to 7am EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ633- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Thursday to 7am EST Friday for ANZ638. |
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