James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Am...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334am EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Synopsis High pressure settles over the area today, allowing for diminishing winds with seasonably cool temperatures. A warm front lifts north on Friday, with a few showers possible. Warm weather is expected Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers are possible Sunday, with a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday night as a cold front crosses the region. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 310am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry again today, but with less wind. - An Increased Fire Danger Statement will be issued for the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore, where frequent gusts to 20 mph are expected along with RH values in the lower 20s during the afternoon. Early morning weather analysis shows an upper trough over New England moving away from the area with surface high pressure now just to our southwest. Under clear skies (with light winds), temps have dropped into the 30s, with some locations already around 32F thanks to the ideal radiational cooling conditions. Will note the Frost/Freeze program does not start until April 1st, so no Frost/Freeze headlines are in effect. The upper trough continues to move away today while the surface high briefly settles over the area before moving offshore by late aftn/early evening. Skies will remain sunny with another very dry day expected, but the wind will be much lighter given the weak pressure gradient. The only (partial) exception to this will be the MD Eastern Shore, where winds will be close to 15 mph with gusts around or just above 20 mph. In coordination with neighboring offices/state agencies, will be issuing an SPS for increased fire danger for our MD Eastern Shore counties. Will hold off on SPSs elsewhere given sustained winds aob 10 mph. Have undercut NBM dew pts once again, so min RH values are likely to drop to 20-25%. High temperatures will be 60-65F (upper 50s across the Eastern Shore). Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday Night As of 310am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Turning warmer Friday, but with more clouds and a slight chance for showers mainly north of I-64. - Very warm and mainly dry Saturday. The surface high slides well offshore on Friday, as a warm front lifts N through the OH Valley towards the Great Lakes. Upper heigheights rise as well as ridging over the Plains builds eastward. Lows tonight will be warmer with a SW flow and increasing clouds, averaging in the low-mid 40s. The warm front will move north of most of the area on Friday, although it may struggle to cross the VA Northern Neck and especially the Lower MD Eastern Shore. It will be much warmer (70s) in most areas with cooler temps (65-70F) and a slight chance for showers across the northern 1/3 of the FA. Shower chances will mainly be W of I-95 in the morning, shifting to the NE by aftn/evening. Skies average partly cloudy south of the front, with thicker cloud cover expected farther N/NE. Confidence in these showers are low at this time and Probability of Precipitation remain 15 to 30%, with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts of a couple hundredths of an inch at best. Will note that the 00z deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have trended down with Probability of Precipitation (closer to the lower NBM). Dry and warm Fri night and Saturday with the CWA (County Warning Area) into the warm sector. Lows Fri night in the 50s, with highs Sat in the upper 70s to lower 80s, along with a breezy SW wind. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday As of 310am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures prevail for the weekend. - A chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday/Monday night association with a cold front. - Seasonably cool and dry on Tuesday and Wednesday. A pattern change is expected starting Sunday with increasing shower chances throughout the area by the afternoon/evening as a weak southern stream shortwave tracks over the area. Sunday will be slightly cooler with more cloud cover than Saturday with highs mainly ranging through the 70s. Attention then turns to a stronger low pressure system that is forecast to quickly track NE from the Midwest to New England from Sunday through Monday. This system will eventually drag a cold front toward the area on Monday...with the front forecast to cross the area late Monday into Monday night. Precip chances briefly fall Sunday night before scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front on Monday (and track across the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening...potentially lingering into Monday night near the coast). Temps rise to around 80F with dew pts rising into the lower to perhaps mid 60s ahead of the front on Monday. This should be enough for modest sfc-based instability to develop by the afternoon. Even though there will also be a decent amount of deep- layer shear...there is still uncertainty is present at this range regarding any potential severe weather Monday afternoon and evening. Will raise Probability of Precipitation to likely going with NBM...and will note that based on forecast soundings/the overall setup feel that the chance for thunder on Monday is likely higher than indicated by the NBM attm. Precip chances end from west to east Monday night behind the front, with cooler, dry, but seasonable weather expected on Tue/Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s. Marine As of 335am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for tonight across the Chesapeake Bay and Lower James. - SW winds increase Fri night into early Sat with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible. - A prolonged period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is possible Sunday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves across the local waters. Early morning surface analysis depicted high pressure across the local waters with light NW winds apart from 10-15 kt across the N waters. Winds become SE this afternoon as high pressure begins to move offshore. Winds become S this evening, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay, Lower James, and VA coastal waters. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds have increased to 60- 80% while wind probs for 25 kt gusts were 30-50% across the VA coastal waters. As such, have issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) from 10pm this evening through 7am Fri for the Ches Bay and Lower James. Will note that confidence is lower across the VA coastal waters given lower wind probs, seas remaining below 5 ft, and the short duration of 25 kt gusts (likely less than three hours). As such, have kept the VA coastal waters out of the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for now and will reevaluate during the afternoon. For now, current thinking is that any surge to 25 kt gusts can be handled with a MWS. Winds become SW late tonight into Fri, diminishing to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Fri. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across all of the local waters Fri night before diminishing Sat with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 80- 100% with wind probs for 25 kt gusts 40-60% (locally 80%) across the coastal waters. Winds drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Sat through Sunday before S winds become elevated once again Sunday night into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. An area of low pressure moves across the Great Lakes and interior New England/Canada Mon. This will push a cold front across the local waters Monday evening/early Monday night. Winds likely increase as they become NW/N behind the cold front Monday night into Tuesday with solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely given the strength of the CAA. Waves and seas of 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively early this morning subside to mainly 1 foot and 2 ft respectively by this afternoon. Waves build to 2-3 ft tonight with seas building to 3-4 ft. Seas of 4-5 ft are possible Fri night into early Sat morning. Another period of elevated seas is expected Sunday into Tuesday as seas build to 4-6 ft due to elevated winds ahead of and behind a cold front. Fire Weather As of 310am EDT Thursday... Dry conditions will continue today with Min RH expected to be 20-25% in most areas. Fire concerns are lower in most areas given forecast sustained winds no higher than 10 mph. However, sustained winds around 15 mph with 20+ mph gusts are expected on the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Therefore, will issue an Increased Fire Danger Statement for our MD counties (in coordination with neighboring offices and state agencies) from late morning through early evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7am EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4am EDT Friday for ANZ638. |
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