James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Building To 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402pm EST Thu Nov 27 2025 Synopsis Cold and dry conditions persist through Saturday night. Cooler weather continues through at least mid week. The next chance for light rain arrives Sunday with better rain chances on Tuesday. Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning As of 210pm EST Thursday... Key Message: - Cooler today with highs in the upper 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE. - Cold tonight with lows in the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast. Latest surface analysis depicted an occluding area of low pressure in Quebec, with the strong trailing cold front well off the Southeast coast. WNW winds were 5-10 mph with occasional gusts around 20 mph mainly across the Eastern Shore. Temperatures as of 1 PM were in the mid 40s NW to low-mid 50s SE. Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue through this afternoon due to a combination of altocu and cirrus. Clouds move offshore this evening with clear skies tonight. The high builds toward the area tonight but remains well to our west as a secondary push of Cold Air Advection arrives, dropping 850 mb temperatures to -10C by early Fri AM. While radiational cooling conditions won't quite be ideal with a 5-10 mph WNW wind, lows will still fall into the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s along the coast. Will note that a few locations across the NW Piedmont may drop into the low-mid 20s if winds become calm briefly before sunrise. Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Saturday Night As of 210pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cold and breezy on Friday with wind chills only warming into the 30s during the afternoon. - Very cold Friday night with upper teens to lower 20s inland and upper 20s to lower 30s along the coast. A strong area of high pressure builds into the area Friday into Friday night, eventually becoming centered over the local area Friday night into Saturday morning as the flow aloft flattens out. Friday will be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and breezy WNW winds gusting up to 25-35 mph (highest across the Eastern Shore). It will feel even colder (given the wind) with wind chills never reaching above the 30s for most (if not all) of the area. In fact, wind chills Fri morning may be as low as the upper teens in spots. With the high over the area Friday night, upper teens are likely in the Piedmont and perhaps rural areas near the I-95 corridor, with lower 20s elsewhere (inland) as winds become calm and skies remain clear. Lows will be warmer along the coast with lows around 30F. With high pressure overhead Sat, winds will remain light through the day. However, it will still be cold with highs in the low-mid 40s and lows Sat night in the mid to upper 20s inland and mid 30s along the coast. Will note that there is a nonzero chance of a few light snow showers or sleet pellets across the Piedmont late Sat night into Sunday morning if enough moisture from an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes and Midwest can make it over the mountains in time. Forecast soundings show a dry layer in the lower levels and saturation in the mid and upper levels. For now, have kept NBM Probability of Precipitation which hold off saturation until temps warm above freezing on Sunday and therefore only show rain. Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday As of 215pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool weather continues through mid week inland with occasional days of mild weather across SE VA and NE NC. - Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night with a more widespread wetting rain likely from late Monday night into Tuesday night. - Rain may start as a period of freezing rain across portions of the Piedmont Monday night into Tuesday morning. Clouds increase Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure moves offshore and an area of low pressure tracks well to our north. Light rain is possible Sunday into Sunday night as that system drags a cold front through the area. However, overall rainfall totals look to be light (<0.2"). Sunday is the "warmest" day of the extended with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the SE half of the FA and mid- upper 40s across the NW half. Confidence continues to increase in a stronger system impacting the area from late Monday night through Tuesday night (70-80% PoPs). However, the exact track of the low and amount of cold air remains uncertain. The general model consensus is for a progressive high pressure to the north which moves from the Great Lakes into northern New England or Canada Monday night into Tue. Ensemble guidance is a bit farther south with the high pressure than deterministic models, however, even ensemble guidance still shows the high moving into Maine by Tuesday morning and continuing to move NE through Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, ensemble guidance shows clustering of a surface low very close to (or along) the coast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Additionally, there are some signs that this could be a Miller B type of setup with a weak initial low moving inland across the Southeast and Southern Appalachian Mountains before the energy transfers to the dominant low forming along the Southeast coast. Given the high pressure remaining far north (with respect to climo for snow for the local area), the Miller B nature of the low, and the primary low forming very close to (if not on) the coast, confidence in any snow is dwindling. Instead, any cold air would likely be shallow, resulting in predominantly freezing rain (if surface temps are cold enough) or rain and perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset if cold air is a bit deeper. As such, have removed snow from the forecast and now have a chance for freezing rain across the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning before temps warm above freezing and everywhere transitions to rain. Will note that the 12z GFS (Global Forecast System) and CMC both showed the potential for >0.5" of freezing rain across the Piedmont. However, the NBM prob for >0.1" of freezing rain was <15% with ~25% probs for >0.01". Meanwhile, the GEFS probs for >0.1" of freezing rain was ~30% with a 20-25% chance for >0.25". As such, will continue to closely monitor the setup. Any precipitation likely ends before Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals could be fairly substantial with a 30-50% chance for >1" of rain on the EPS and GEFS (best chance across SE VA/NE NC). Otherwise, highs are expected to range from the mid-upper 40s Monday (around 50F across far SE VA/NE NC), around 40F NW to around 60F SE Tue, mid-upper 40s Wednesday (lower 50s across far S VA/NE NC), and upper 40s N to low-mid 50s S Thu. Lows range from the upper 20s NW to around 40F SE Sunday night (dropping below freezing after the precipitation ends) through Tuesday night. However, will note that NBM temps may be too cool with the Tuesday system and therefore temps may be warmer Monday and Tuesday nights. Marine As of 330pm EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect tonight through Friday/Friday night as a reinforcing shot of cold dry air moves in from the NW. - Benign conditions Saturday into early Sunday with high pressure, then another period with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible Sunday night/Monday with the next cold front. Winds are currently fairly light over most of the marine area, but a surface trough is situated W of the waters, and will push through this evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air. W-NW winds tonight are expected to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. While a few gusts to 35 kt will be possible, mainly Friday morning across the northern coastal waters, probabilities for frequent Gale-force gusts (>34 kt) remain very low (10% or less). Gusty westerly winds continue through the daytime hours Friday, with another slight uptick possible Friday night given pressure rises of 4-5 mb/6 hr as high pressure begins building in from the W. Given the predominantly offshore wind direction through Friday night, seas are only expected to build to 3-5 ft, highest 10- 20 nm offshore. Waves in the bay generally remain in the 2-3 ft range, with 3-4 ft waves mainly confined to the bayside of the VA eastern shore. High pressure moves overhead Saturday, allowing northerly winds to quickly diminish and becoming E-NE at 5-10 kt or less. Winds become southerly on Sunday, but wind speeds are expected to remain in the 10-15 kt range. Another cold front crosses the waters Sunday night, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible into early Monday. Uncertainty then increases by Tuesday of next week as another cold front (and likely low pressure system) impact the region. A period of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, but the exact evolution of the wind direction and speed is of low confidence at this point. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4am EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10pm EST Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4am EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. |
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