James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Overnight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
719pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
Low pressure will move northeast of the area and into the northern mid Atlantic this evening. Dry weather is expected from tonight through Tuesday. An upper trough will swing into and across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 645pm EST Sunday... Satellite imagery shows the clouds finally starting to break over the NW Piedmont with broken to overcast cloud cover remaining over the remainder of the area. Some fog/low stratus clouds continue for northern portions of the Ches Bay, extending NE into the MD Eastern Shore. Precip has largely come to an end but did maintain the chance Probability of Precipitation across the SE third of the area with a slight chance Probability of Precipitation over the NE as moisture departs tonight. Temperatures have been slow to fall across the western parts of VA as the front is a bit slower than progged. Have adjusted temps upward from the previous forecast to reflect this trend.
Skies become partly to mostly clear tonight as drying ensues. No additional fog development is expected. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s NW, to the upper 40s in far SE VA/NE NC.
.SHORT TERM /6am MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305pm EST Sunday... A shortwave trough will approach from the W late Mon, before tracking over the local area Monday evening. Moisture will be limited, so expect just more clouds. A couple of the CAMs are forecasting isolated showers across western portions of the area, but will continue to leave this out of the forecast considering that it will be quite dry below 7-8kft AGL. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Becoming mostly clear Monday night in the wake of the shortwave with lows ranging through the 30s. Dry/seasonable weather is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. A deeper shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tuesday night, and cross the area during the day on Wednesday. The best rain chances will be to our W/NW Tuesday night, with a 20-30% Probability of Precipitation across much of the area (for showers) on Wed. The highest rain chances will across far SE VA/NE NC. In addition, it will become breezy with NW winds Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Lows Tuesday night will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mostly cloudy on Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 40s in most areas with lower 50s in far southern VA/NE NC. Drying out (and colder) Wednesday night with diminishing winds inland as high pressure builds in from the west. Lows Wednesday night in the mid- upper 20s inland with lower-mid 30s near the immediate coast.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 305pm EST Sunday... High pressure will build over the region on Thursday before sliding off the Mid-Atlantic/SE Coast Thu night into Fri. The high will shift farther out to sea during the day on Sat. Dry weather should prevail through Sat. However, during the second half of the weekend, there is the potential for more widespread rain as a stronger low pressure system and cold front approach the area from the west. Given that it is a week out, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding specifics. Highs Thu mainly in the mid 40s to around 50F. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas. Increasingly milder from Fri through the weekend. Highs in the mid 50s to around 60F Fri, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s next weekend.
As of 655pm EST Sunday... Warm front has finally pushed just N of the waters as of this afternoon. The upper Chesapeake Bay and the coastal waters N of Parramore Island are close enough to the front to still be dealing with some fog issues. Patchy dense fog is expected to linger over the new few hours. However, model guidance shows the potential for fog lingering until 6z (1am EST) but confidence is low, especially across the N coastal waters where winds ramp up around 6z behind a cold front. As such, Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 3z (10pm EST) for these areas for now. Will reevaluate with the 10pm update. Further S, SW winds are generally 10-15 kt. A few gusts to ~20 kt are possible over the next few hrs in Lower James, lower Bay, and offshore of VA Beach and OBX Currituck. A cold front will cross the region this evening, with winds turning WNW-NW. Despite the frontal passage, winds over the most of the area are expected to only be 5-10 kt. The one exception looks to be over the ocean N of Chincoteague (and especially out 20 NM) where 925 mb winds will be stronger. Hi- res guidance is trending upwards wrt to surface winds here, with a period of 15-20 kt winds possible after ~06Z/1am Mon, lasting until just after sunrise. The highest probs for a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are offshore of DE and NJ, so will not issue any products at this time. Weak high pressure settles over the area for Monday with light and variable winds. NW-NNW winds then increase to 15-20 kt (~10 kt over the Rivers and Currituck Sound) Monday night- Tues morning as rather strong pressure rises overspread the region from the W. The most likely areas to see a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions would be the coastal waters N of Chincoteague and the northern Bay, where local wind probs are generally 25-50%. Winds again turn light and variable for Tuesday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are very likely behind another cold front Wednesday aftn-Thurs morning w/ NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Uncertainty grows for the weekend with global models hinting at the potential for impactful marine conditions both ahead of and behind another system.
Seas this afternoon are 2-3 ft with waves in the Bay 1-2 ft. Depending on winds tonight, seas could reach ~4 ft N of Chincoteague and out 10- 20 nm. Otherwise, 2-3 ft and 1-2 waves are expected to persist through early Wed. In the post-frontal regime Wednesday aftn-Thurs morning, seas increase to 3-6 ft (highest S of NC/VA border) with waves in the Bay increasing to 2-4 ft (1-2 ft in the Rivers). Seas then diminish to 2-4 ft to finish out the week. Waves will be 1-2 ft.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ630-650- 652.