James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Sun...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot Late.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
934pm EST Sat Nov 16 2019
Low pressure off the southeast coast will intensify while tracking northeast off the Carolina coast overnight through Sunday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will shift east to New England by Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
As of 930pm EST Saturday... Update...Latest analysis shows strengthening area of low pressure now well offshore of the GA/SC coast this evening, as 1036+ mb high pressure remains in place from southern Quebec into northern New England. Made some downward adjustments to rain chances well inland, with dry N flow keeping a lid on rain chances over the western 2/3 of the area. Have maintained a slight to low-end chance for some light rain or even drizzle over the I-95 corridor and points just east overnight (dry well inland). Otherwise, likely to categorical rain chances remain confined to the far southeast corner of the local area.
Winds are a bit lower than the going forecast, with a brief lull expected as low remain quasi-stationary overnight. However, HRRR/RAP both indicate a slight bump up in gusts around and just after daybreak as gradient tightens and system slides closer to the NC Crystal coast. So, will make no adjustments to the wind advisories/high wind warning for now. Gusts to 30 mph inland... 40-45 mph toward the coast (at little higher possible over the adjacent waters)...again maybe a bit higher by dawn Sunday morning.
Temperatures are expected to drop to below freezing in the NW but again still expect llevel N winds to keep precipitation off to the E-SE of this region. Lows in the upper 20s NW to the 40s/around 50F SE coast.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday
As of 215pm EST Saturday... RA continues Sun...moderate to heavy at times along the SE coast...tapering off by mid to late afternoon. Highs in the 40s central and W and l-m50s at the coast.
Lo pressure continues N/NE off the NE coast Mon. Meanwhile, another trough digs through the SE US. There will still be some lingering moisture...esp toward the coast...so there is the chance for some SHRAs but most of the area should remain dry. Temps start out Monday morning in the l-m30s W to m40s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Monday will rebound to the l-m50s. N/NW winds will diminish along the coast but will still be breezy with gusts to 20-30 mph...esp in the morning. Trough aloft crosses the region Tuesday bringing VRB clouds-mostly cloudy conditions. For now will hold Probability of Precipitation below 20%. Lows Monday night in the l-m30s inland to the u30s-l40s at the coast. Highs Tuesday in the m-u50s.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 130pm EST Saturday... Milder...dry weather expected Tuesday night through Thu night. By Fri...a cold front approaches from the NW increasing clouds and Probability of Precipitation - SHRAs by late in the day/night (w/ the front off the coast Sat). Lows Tuesday night in the l30s W to the u30s-around 40F at the coast. Highs Wednesday in the m-u50s. Lows Wednesday night in the l30s W to the u30s-l40s at the coast. Highs Thu in the u50s to around 60F. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s...except u40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Fri 60-65F. Highs Sat in the l-m50s...except u50s over coastal NE NC.
As of 330pm EST Saturday... Afternoon surface analysis shows deepening ~1002 mb low pressure centered ~100 miles offshore of the coast of SC, with strong (~1037 mb) high pressure over NE NY/far southern ON/QC. The resulting pressure gradient has allowed sustained NE winds over our the bay, ocean, and Lower James River to average 28-35 kt with gusts of 38-45 kt (with slightly higher winds at elevated sites across the southern coastal waters). Seas have built to 10-12 ft N/11-16 ft S, with 4-7 ft waves on the Ches Bay (highest at the mouth). Solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions persist over the rivers this afternoon. Not much in the way of changes to marine conditions through tonight, with solid gale conditions persisting through the night across the bay/ocean. Winds remain our of the NNE through tonight. Gusts to 50 kt will be likely across the southern two coastal zones/Currituck Sound through the night (especially at elevated sites). Solid SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely in the York, Rappahannock, and upper James rivers tonight through Sunday evening, with gale conditions for the lower James River. Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Currituck Sound and offshore zones south of Cape Charles until Sunday evening. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all of the Ches Bay and the offshore zones north of Cape Charles through late Sunday.
The low continues to deepen as it tracks north-northeastward on Sunday, becoming centered a couple hundred miles E of the VA/NC coastline by late evening. The low then accelerates to the NNE from late Sunday night-Mon, reaching the waters off southern New England by Monday evening. As the low comes closer to our area on Sunday, winds turn to the N (and eventually NNW by evening). No large changes in wind speeds expected on Sun, although some of the latest hi-res guidance is hinting at a slight increase in winds across the bay/northern coastal waters from Sunday AM-late Sunday afternoon as winds turn more northerly as the low approaches (but remains well offshore). Still expecting prevailing wind speeds/gusts to remain in the range of gales, but a few gusts near 50 kt cannot be ruled out at elevated sites near the mouth of the bay/offshore N of Cape Charles (but confidence in this is low).
Seas are forecast to increase to 12-19 ft offshore tonight with waves in the Ches Bay in the 5-7 ft range (up to 8-9 ft at the mouth). A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all local beaches through Sunday night. Winds are expected to diminish to below gale criteria late Sunday night-early Monday AM, before falling below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on Monday. Seas likely remain above 5 ft into the middle of next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 400pm EST Saturday... Tidal anomalies have increased to 2-2.5 ft in parts of the Lower Ches Bay, James River, and bayside of the VA Eastern Shore (where minor tidal flooding has been observed today). This was also helped by the fact that the previous high tide was also the higher astronomical tide. Tidal anomalies will continue to increase through Sunday (due to persistent NE winds). While minor tidal flooding is expected tonight, the worst coastal flood impacts will occur during the high tide on Sunday (given that it is also the higher of the two astronomical tides). Most locations adjacent to the Lower Ches Bay, Atlantic coast of VA/NC, and York/James rivers will see moderate flooding, with water levels cresting around major flood thresholds in a few locations.
A coastal flood warning remains in effect for the Atlantic Coast south of Chincoteague to Duck, NC,lower Chesapeake Bay from the Middle Peninsula to the mouth of the bay, and along the tidal portions of the James and York rivers (with major flooding expected along the James River at Jamestown). A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for Worcester County, MD. All coastal flood headlines run through Sunday night for now. A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the mid/upper portions of Chesapeake Bay (from the northern neck to Middlesex County) fro late Sun-Mon. Have held off on any coastal flood headlines for the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore, but advisories will eventually be needed starting on Monday (although water levels at Bishop's Head may crest just above minor flood thresholds late Sunday aftn.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Wind Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory until 6am EST Monday for MDZ025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3am EST Monday for MDZ024-025. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 3am EST Monday for NCZ102. High Wind Warning until 6pm EST Sunday for NCZ015>017-102. Wind Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for NCZ032. High Surf Advisory until 6am EST Monday for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 3am EST Monday for VAZ084-086-089- 090-093-095>100-523>525. High Wind Warning until 6pm EST Sunday for VAZ095-098. Wind Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for VAZ097-099-100-525. High Surf Advisory until 6am EST Monday for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7am Sunday to 10am EST Monday for VAZ075-077-078-085.
Gale Warning until 1am EST Monday for ANZ632-634-650-652-654. Storm Warning until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ633-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 10pm EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Gale Warning until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ638.