James River From The James River Bridge To The Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw, Then Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N Early In The Afternoon, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Snow And Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Snow Likely In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Snow Likely. Rain Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Snow Likely, Mainly In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Evening.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1223am EST Wednesday Jan 19 2022
High pressure moves off the southeast coast today. An arctic cold front crosses the area Thursday then stalls along the southeast coast Thursday night. Low pressure develops along this front Friday then tracks northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night and Saturday. High pressure builds back into the area early next week.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 1220am EST Wednesday... Mstly clr for the pre-dawn hrs. Temps steady or may rise a bit as winds turn into the SSW.
High pressure moves off the coast today. Breezy SW winds around the high results in a short-lived "warmup". BKN CI this morn will give way to a BKN AC deck this aftrn as mid level moisture begins to increase. Thus, pt-mstly sunny and mild. Highs low-mid 50s except upper 50s se.
Short Term - Tonight Through Friday Night
As of 400pm EST Tuesday... Arctic cold front will be approaching the area from the north early Thursday morning. Temperatures Thursday morning will start in the upper 30 to mid 40s. The cold front will quickly drop south during the day on Thursday. There will like be light precipitation along the cold front as it moves across the area. Temperatures will likely drop to around 32F in Richmond by the afternoon, and Hampton Roads by the evening. As the cold front drops across the area, rain will change to snow during the afternoon and evening with temperatures as low as the upper 20s. Accumulations will be light across the area Thursday night. Generally less than an 1" Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.
Southwest flow aloft will continue over the area as the cold front moves into NC. This will bring moisture north and into the cold air Thursday night. Snow will likely begin again across southern VA (There is a chance that there won't be much of a break in the snow between the snow following the cold front and the moisture returning from the SW. Especially across Hampton Roads). The cold air will be shallow over northeastern NC Thursday evening and Thursday night. Precip will likely remain mostly sleet or freezing rain. There may be a brief period Thursday night where snow can mix with the sleet/freezing rain an accumulate to 0.5-1.0". Areas across northeast NC will likely not see a break in the precipitation before the moisture returns. Sleet and freezing rain is expected to continue through Friday. Ice accumulation will through 7pm Friday is between 0.01" and 0.10" for northeast NC. There may be a glaze of freezing rain across Chesapeake/VA Beach/Suffolk Friday.
There is still high uncertainty with this winter storm. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) continues to be the most aggressive in terms of snow totals across the area. While the GFS shows lesser amounts. The ECMWF has a deeper trough over the mid Mississippi River valley Friday. This deeper trough taps into more Gulf of Mexico moisture and brings it farther north. ECMWF bring snow back across the region Friday, and well inland to the I-81 corridor and north to the MD/PA border. This will bring heavy snow to all of our area, for the exception of northeast NC and far southeast VA where precipitation will be freezing rain/sleet (rain at the beaches). The GFS brings the snow in later Friday night and keeps the areal coverage to central/southeast VA, northeast NC, and southeast MD. The GFS solution does keep precipitation mostly snow across southeast VA and northeast NC, with less of a freezing rain threat for our area. The 12z NAM also shows snow returning Friday afternoon, similarly to the ECMWF. Therefore, went with more with the combination of the NAM and ECMWF solution for this forecast.
There is high confidence that very cold air will be over the region late Thursday through Friday night. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most area by sunset Thursday night and fall into the teens inland. Cold air will continue to filter into the region Friday and high will only climb into the mid to upper 20s. If snow moves in faster than expected, temperatures could remain in the low 20s in some areas. However, temperatures will likely fall into the low 20s Friday afternoon/evening as snow begins to spread north. Snow and ice accumulation forecasts goes through 7pm Friday. Snow totals Thursday afternoon and evening along the front are expected to be less than an inch with highest totals of 1.5" across southeast VA. An additional 1-2" is expected to accumulate Friday through 7pm. Highest total then will be across Hampton Roads. Both the GFS and ECMWF show snow continue through the night with the heaviest snow overnight. For central and southeast VA, probabilities still remain high for at least 3" of snow across the area, and a change for accumulations of at least 6".
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 1220am Wednesday... Cold high pressure builds into the area early next week. Lowered temps by a few degrees over the weekend given the expected snow/ice on the ground. Highs Sun/Monday in the mid-upper 30s. Lows Sat/Sunday nites in the teens except low-mid 20s near the water.
Low pressure moves east while passing north of the area Tue, with its trailing cold front crossing the area Tuesday nite. Best support for precipitation with this feature stays north of the local area but won't rule out a rain/snow shwr with the frontal passage Tuesday nite. Lows Monday nite mid teens-mid 20s. Highs Tuesday upper 30s-mid 40s.
As of 705pm EST Tuesday... High pressure over the region this evening will gradually move offshore tonight into Wed. All SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for today are no longer in effect. Much calmer conditions tonight with high pressure over the waters, W/NW winds around 5 to 10 knots (except NW winds 10 to 15 knots over the northern coastal waters) gradually become S to SW tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late tonight. The pressure gradient briefly tightens again Wednesday with SW winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots (20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots over the northern coastal waters). Best chance for any SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions generally exists across the northern Chesapeake Bay and the northern coastal waters for tomorrow. As a result, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay north of New Point Comfort as well as the northern coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light for tomorrow. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft across the northern coastal waters Wednesday with waves building to 2 to 3 ft in the Ches Bay.
The next cold front drops southward on Thursday with strong cold advection behind the boundary. At least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions look likely from Thursday into Saturday depending on the track and strength of low pressure off the Carolina/Virginia coast. There will also be the potential for some Gale force wind gusts, especially for the coastal waters. Calmer conditions return Saturday night into Sunday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for ANZ630-631-650-652-654.