Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms Until Early Morning. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 342pm EDT Sunday August 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Discussion, including 18z Aviation .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An unsettled pattern prevails today through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms. 2) A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend. As of 155pm EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...An unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. Expect near average temperatures, with increasingly humid conditions, and daily chances of showers and storms. Latest surface analysis reveals 1024+ mb high pressure remaining well offshore near Bermuda this afternoon. To the west, a slow-moving low pressure system continues to drift NE across the Ohio River Valley, with an associated cold front draped across the eastern OH/TN Valleys into the Deep South. Aloft, an amplified upper trough tracks toward the region this afternoon, with deep SSW flow drawing tropical moisture north into the local area. Regional soundings and early afternoon mesoanalysis reveal PW values (Precipitable Water values) around 2-2.25", with even higher values (to ~ 2.50") just to our south expected to push over the region later this afternoon and tonight as the dampening upper trough swings east. An earlier round of showers lifted across the US-15 corridor in the VA Piedmont, dropping up to 1" of rain in spots from Louisa to Farmville to west of South Hill, with locally higher totals just outside our CWA (County Warning Area) to the N and W. Additional isolated to widely scattered showers have developed as of this writing along a differential heating boundary over central VA, as well as farther south along a coastal trough over eastern NC. The southern activity will continue lifting NNE across south- central/SE VA and eastern NC this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is expected given the deepening moisture profile, and while storm motions should remain progressive enough to preclude widespread flooding, localized flash flooding remains possible where training occurs. Deep-layer shear remains relatively weak, but a low-end severe threat continues primarily dependent on isolated wet microbursts developing along the previously referenced narrow differential heating boundary near the I-95 corridor through early this evening. Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk along and west of I-95, with isolated damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Rain chances ramp down for much of the region overnight, leading to a warm and muggy night. However, the latest CAM guidance highligheights two main corridors where convective activity could persist into the late night hours as additional MCVs embedded in the SW flow arrive: the VA Piedmont and along the coast. Have lingered higher Probability of Precipitation in these areas a bit longer. Despite increasing moisture /IVT of +3-4 StdDev/ along the coast supporting a few heavier downpours, antecedent dry conditions over the past few days should preclude flash flood issues. Farther inland though, flash flood concerns remain a bit elevated across the Piedmont, where a couple of rounds of rainfall have already occurred. The 12z HREF probabilities continue to support localized 2-3"+ totals of additional rainfall today and tonight. Neighborhood probabilities for rain rates exceeding 1"/hr are above 70% along the US-15 corridor W/NW of the Richmond metro, with a low (~10%) probability for 3"/3hr totals in that same area. Still not confident enough for any Flood Watch areas given the relatively limited area of focus, but any training cells across the piedmont will need to be closely monitored this evening. For Monday, more widespread showers and storms are likely as shortwaves attendant to the dampening upper trough lift across the area. While guidance varies on exact areal coverage, the continued unsettled pattern supports a persistence-based forecast featuring a localized heavy rain threat and an isolated, low-end severe risk. The trough weakens further Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms capable of heavy rainfall remain expected as deep moisture lingers despite weakening SW flow aloft. Given the atmospheric profile characterized by weak unidirectional flow and tall, skinny CAPE localized flash flooding will remain a threat each day through Wednesday. However, the severe threat should stay low due to poor mid-level lapse rates, a near-saturated vertical column, and weak shear. Days 1-3 (Sunday-Tuesday) remain in a WPC Marginal ERO, as the overall flash flood risk remains localized due to the lack of a strong large-scale surface boundary. High temperatures will average slightly below normal early this week owing to widespread cloud cover and daily precipitation. NBM numbers do look a bit high compared to thickness temperatures, especially given persistent cloud cover, but have been left more or less in place for now with limited change to messaging expected. KEY MESSAGE 2...A more typical summertime pattern returns for the latter half of the week. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible, with near to slightly above normal temperatures prevailing through next weekend. While less widespread than early in the week, more typical summer time diurnally-driven isolated to scattered convective chances return Thursday through Saturday. Given decreased convective coverage and more sunshine, high temperatures rebound to near or slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints lingering in the mid-to- upper 70s will maintain muggy conditions, pushing heat indices toward 100 degrees for a good portion of the area Thursday through Saturday. However, heat headlines are not anticipated at this time. Marine As of 340pm EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Southerly winds increase this afternoon into Monday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters except the upper rivers. - Shower and storm chances persist through most of this week. Southerly winds are increasing across the local waters this afternoon as a warm front lifts N and a cold front slowly approaches from the W. There is also scattered shower and storm activity moving quickly north across portions of the Chesapeake Bay. This activity could bring localized higher wind gusts in the 35-45 kt range. Otherwise, expect those elevated southerly winds to continue through the night with frequent gusts up to 30 kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River through 10am Monday morning and through Monday evening on the ocean where seas stay elevated even as winds begin to decrease. There remains some uncertainty as to how long the stronger southerly flow persists on Monday, so some extension to ongoing headlines are possible. Waves build to 2-4 ft tonight in the Ches Bay while seas are forecast to increase to 3-5 ft S and 4-6 ft N (7-8 ft possible 20-60 nm offshore). Seas will slowly drop off from S to N late Monday afternoon into the evening. Sub-advisory conditions are then expected to dominate from Tuesday through late week. Shower and storm chances also linger through much of the week. While widespread severe convection appears unlikely, locally higher winds/waves/seas will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. There is a Moderate Rip current risk at the northern beaches today and a High risk Monday. The rip risk remains limited at the southern beaches due to an unfavorable due south wind and shore- parallel swell direction. However, there could be a moderate- strong longshore current at all beaches. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Monday for ANZ656-658. |
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