Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain With Patchy Drizzle Early.|
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1159am EDT Fri September 29 2023
High pressure will remain across Atlantic Canada, with low pressure lingering off the mid Atlantic coast through Saturday, keeping persistent cloudy and cool conditions in place. The next high slowly builds south from the Great Lakes into the local area Sunday through Tuesday, bringing dry and warm conditions to the region.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1145am EDT Friday... The latest WX analysis indicates a slowly weakening area of sfc high pressure centered from Atlantic Canada to the coast of Maine. To the south, an inverted trough extends N fro a position well off the Carolina coast to near the NJ coast. Heavy rain has developed across NJ/SE NY/ and southern New England. Upper level low pressure is off to our N, across western PA/NY. Locally. just a few spotty showers are in place along or just offshore of the eastern shore. It remains gloomy however, with low clouds and some light drizzle (mainly along the coast). Temperatures are mainly ranging from the mid 60s to around 70F.
Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies not too far W of the CWA (County Warning Area) (LYH is mostly sunny with temperatures in the lower 70s). Expect some of the drier air to mix into our piedmont zones after ~18Z, but it probably remains overcast from the I-95 corridor and pts to the east. High temperatures will be a touch warmer today compared to yesterday, with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with a few areas in the far west potentially rising into the mid 70s if the partial sunshine can materialize.
Lower clouds/overcast skies build back across the entire FA tonight with again the potential for some patchy drizzle/fog. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s W to the lower 60s closer to the coast.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
As of 335am EDT Friday... Saturday will likely remain another fairly cloudy day, though fortunately our last, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. The upper low begins to (slowly) move off the NJ coast during the day Saturday. A slight chance of showers will linger across primarily the MD Eastern Shore through Saturday afternoon. Still remaining on the cooler side Saturday afternoon with high temperatures again generally in the lower 70s (some mid 70s across the S/SW). Lows dip into the mid to upper 50s (lower 60s at the coast) Saturday night. We finally see improving conditions on Sunday with the low pushing further out to sea and high pressure building over the region. High temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 70s Sunday afternoon.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 335am EDT Friday... The extended period will feature an upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the eastern half of the CONUS. Dry conditions and plentiful sunshine are expected through midweek with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the 50s and 60s each night. One caveat is that we will have to watch the potential for some moisture trying to sneak into far SE portions of the area late in the period as a coastal trough may try to move closer.
As of 915am EDT Thursday... N winds will be hovering around SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds in the Chesapeake Bay today, especially S of New Point Comfort. Given expected increase in the winds overnight and tomorrow, went ahead and extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the lower Bay through 00z Sun. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be needed for the evening and overnight for the middle and upper Bay zones.
Strong high pressure to the east of Maine continues to ridge south into the Mid-Atlantic states with an inverted coastal trough off the Carolina coast. NNE winds are generally 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Waves are 2-3 ft (3-4 ft near the mouth of the bay) with seas 5- 7 ft.
Main synoptic features will persist today into the weekend with high pressure anchored NE of the region and a coastal trough/closed low lingering offshore. Winds will slacken for a period today with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines in the Ches Bay ending from N to S this morning. Winds generally around 15 kt today before increasing back to 15-20 kt late tonight into early Saturday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines continue for the Atlantic coastal waters through the weekend as seas remain elevated at 4-6 ft today and Saturday before increasing once again on Sunday into early next week. Extended offshore SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through Sunday evening for now but these will likely require extension in subsequent forecasts. Waves at the mouth of the bay will stay in the 3-5 ft range through the weekend as well. NE surface flow persists into early next week but at sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. High pressure finally builds into and over the region by midweek, bringing a welcome return to benign boating
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 335am EDT Friday... Some slight improvement in water levels early this morning as a series of ebb tides have been noted at the mouth of the bay. That said, Coastal Flood Advisories continue for much of the area this morning. Expect a period of only nuisance to locally minor coastal flooding tonight into Saturday before increasing NE winds and persistent swell near the mouth of the bay lead to increasing tidal anomalies again on Sunday. Will let the current headlines come to an end before introducing any further advisories. Current forecast for the high tide this afternoon at Bishops Head looks to only be a tenth of an inch or so into minor territory with other nearby gauges only rising into action stage.
High rip current risk continues today and Saturday at all area beaches.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for VAZ078-084>086-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Saturday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658.