Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot After Midnight. Rain Likely, Mainly This Evening.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
730pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019
A couple of weak low pressure areas will move across the local area through Tuesday night. High pressure gradually builds in from the west for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front crosses the region late Friday into Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 300pm EST Monday... Low clouds remain stubborn over much of the local area this afternoon. There has been a bit of partial clearing into parts of central VA ahead of a S/W approaching from the central mtns/wrn NC. Will have a rather large area of SHRAS move (SW-NE) across the FA this evening...PoPs 50-80%. Highest Probability of Precipitation shift NE toward the coast while decreasing in coverage overnight. Otw...mostly cloudy w/ light winds. Patchy FG cannot be ruled out as well. Lows in the l-m30s I 95 corridor and W to the l40s near the coast in SE VA-NE NC.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Thursday
As of 300pm EST Monday... A break in weather systems is expected Tue. Models suggest significant clearing may be troublesome but will expect at least breaks in the clouds w/ Probability of Precipitation mainly below 10%. Highs in the m-u50s.
Final piece of the upper level trough to cross the region Tue evening-night. Blend of the guidance shows at least SLGT CHC PoPs (SHRAS) over the FA along w/ lingering cloudiness. Lows from the u30s W to the m40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC.
Finally by Wed...NW flow aloft and surface hi pressure building in from the W/SW will allow for a mostly sunny day (partly sunny NE). May be be a tad breezy...esp at the coast/on the eastern shore. Highs Wednesday again in the m-u50s. Mainly clear Wednesday night with lows 30-35F well inland to the u30s-l40s at the coast. Dry/seasonable weather continues Thu as surface hi pressure settles to near the NC/SC coasts. Highs 55-60F.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 310pm EST Monday... The extended portion of the forecast turns more unsettled...esp late Fri into early Sun. ECMWF/GFS coming more in line wrt a cold front crossing the region w/ possible SHRAS (late Fri/Fri night)...then lo pres/its associated cold front...quickly returning by late Sat (w/ additional RA chcs) and exiting early Sun. Drying out by late in the weekend and for Mon. Lows Thu night ranging through the 40s. Highs Fri in the l-m60s N and m-u60s S. Lows Fri night in the l-m30s N and W to around 40F at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Sat 50-55F. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s W to the l40s far SE. High Sunday from the l50s N to the u50s far SE. Highs Monday ranging through the 50s.
As of 345pm EST Monday... N-NW winds have fallen to 10-15 kt this afternoon as low pressure well offshore of the Northeast US coast continues to pull away from the region (w/ not much of a pressure gradient across much of the central/ern CONUS. As a result, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are now only in effect for the ocean/Lower Ches Bay for waves/seas (due to swell from the departing system). The SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the ocean continue through 23z/6pm Tuesday. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Lower Ches Bay zone (ANZ632) has been extended until 00z/7pm this evening, while the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the mouth of the Ches Bay runs until 06z/1am Tuesday. Winds turn to the W and diminish to 5- 10 kt tonight as the aforementioned low continues to pull away from the region. Winds generally remain out of west at 5-12 kt (sustained) through late Tuesday evening. Low pressure develops well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday evening before deepening and tracking to the NNE during the Tuesday night-Wednesday timeframe. Winds turn to the NW Tuesday night and increase to 15-20 kt on the bay/ocean due to an increasing pressure gradient on the back side of the deepening coastal low (w/ high pressure centered from the southern Great Lakes to the Deep South). Wind gusts are expected to be around SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on the bay/ocean from late Tuesday night-Wednesday before slowly diminishing by early Thuam as high pressure becomes centered over VA/NC.
Seas have slowly diminished today, and are now 7-11 ft offshore with waves in the Ches Bay in the 2-4 ft range (up to 5 ft at the mouth). Seas likely remain above 5 ft through late Tuesday (thus the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect through Tuesday evening). In addition, waves near the mouth of the bay will most likely remain above 4 ft through late tonight. Extended the High Surf Advisory until 10pm this evening, as seas are still ~8 ft nearshore in most places S of the VA-MD border.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 345pm EST Monday... Widespread minor flooding is occurring/has occurred across the area with the current high tide cycle. Tidal anomalies are around 2 ft across the Lower Ches Bay/tidal rivers. Anomalies have risen this afternoon from Lewisetta to the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore due to a relatively strong flood tide (slightly higher than the 12z CBOFS forecast). As a result, widespread minor tidal flooding is expected to continue through this evening across the upper Ches Bay. Water levels at Bishop's Head will likely crest just above moderate flood thresholds (~3.8 ft).
No additional tidal flooding is expected across the Lower Ches Bay/ocean after the current high tide cycle (with the exception of minor flooding at Bayford during tonight/Tuesday's high tide cycle). Therefore, all Coastal Flood Advisories for areas S of Windmill Point will be allowed to expire after the current high tide cycle (00z this evening). Anomalies are forecast to remain relatively steady across the upper Ches Bay from tonight-Tue. Therefore, the threat for mainly minor coastal flooding will continue through Tuesday from the tidal Potomac/VA Northern Neck to the bayside of Lower MD Ern Shore. For now, will extend the Coastal Flood Advisories through tonight for the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore/VA Northern Neck, and will let the midnight shift assess coastal flood potential for the high tide Tue. Will likely need to extend the advisory through Tuesday evening for the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore (at least). Could see water levels approach moderate flood thresholds at Bishop's Head during the high tide on Tuesday (like what is happening this evening), given that it is the higher of the two astronomical tides.
Increasing NW winds Tuesday night-Wednesday should allow tidal anomalies to finally fall across the upper Ches Bay, ending the threat for coastal flooding after Tuesday evening.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for MDZ021>023. NC...High Surf Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for VAZ075-077- 078.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.