Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411pm EDT Tuesday July 27 2021
A frontal boundary will wash out across the region today as weak high pressure builds in from the north. A stronger cold front crosses the region Friday with high pressure building in from the north on Saturday.
Near Term - Through Wednesday
As of 230pm EDT Tuesday... The latest analysis shows a weak surface boundary across the local area with a light wind profile in the lower levels (most areas away from the water have less than 5 mph currently). Convection will likely be influenced by the seabreeze as an onshore flow strengthens a bit through the afternoon (starting to see a few showers develop over the eastern shore). Also seeing scattered showers/tstms flaring up along the mountains and over portions of NC/SC along a weak surface boundary. It is rather unstable this afternoon with latest ML CAPE values per Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis of 1000 to 2000 J/Kg (highest over the interior SE VA/south central VA and NE NC. There is not much a trigger however, so still not expecting more than isolated to widely scattered tstms. Probability of Precipitation will be highest over interior NE NC (around 40%) and 20-30% near the Bay and coast. Will have Probability of Precipitation to 20% well inland across central VA in case any of the storms along the mountains push E due to the WNW flow aloft. Locally downpours are likely in any storms given still modestly high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) (though nothing to the extent of yesterday. Humid with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Anticipate the convection to diminish after sunset but will keep some low chance Probability of Precipitation going across NE NC through 06Z. Seasonably warm/humid overnight under partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s most areas (locally mid 70s along the coast in SE VA/NE NC.
On Wed, the flow aloft shifts more to the NW (compared to WNW) as the next shortwave pivots around the base of the deep upper trough across eastern Canada. This may bring a slightly better chance for aftn/early evening tstms. The low level flow remains fairly weak so once again expect some sea-breeze influence to get the storms going in the afternoon. Will still only have Probability of Precipitation 20-30% across the area, but the storms may be a little stronger and longer lived than on Tue. Partly sunny on average with highs low- mid 90s inland except upper 80s/around 90F at the immediate coast.
Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday
As of 335am EDT Tuesday... Partly cloudy other than a few early evening showers/tstms with lows Wednesday night upper 60s- lwr 70s.
For Thu, partly to mostly sunny ahead of an approaching cold front. Models show scattered convection developing late aftn/eve across the northern third of the fa but will spread at least 20% PoPs into southern VA late. The front pushes S Thu night with the potential for some redevelopment of showers/tstms mainly over the S on Fri. Highs in the 90-95F range for Thu (upper 80s NE), with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs Fri mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then cooler Fri night with lows mostly into the 60s except lower 70s far SE.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 355pm EDT Tuesday... Flow aloft shifts more to the W this weekend with the upper level ridge centered from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northern Rockies and the upper trough sharpening over eastern Canada and pivoting S into the NE CONUS. This should push the cold front S of the area Fri night with weak high pressure settling in from the N for Sat. Mainly dry/cooler conditions Sat with highs in the mid 80s. The models then show another push of a rather strong shortwave across the eastern Great Lakes into New England later Sunday into Mon. This would potentially drive another cold front through the area Sunday into Mon. Will have low chance Probability of Precipitation during this period then mainly dry for Monday with highs in the 80s. By later Monday into Tue, the models are in decent agreement that the upper ridge amplifies into western Canada with a trough diving S nearly to the Gulf of Mexico. The flow aloft shifts to the SW and increasing moisture is expected Monday night into Tuesday as a surface trough develops across the SE CONUS. Will have Probability of Precipitation above climo for Tuesday with highs only in the lower 80s.
As of 330pm EDT Tuesday... Winds are expected to remain sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the next week outside of convection. A few isolated storms will be possible late this afternoon into early this evening, particularly over SE VA/NE NC and may push over the local waters. Otherwise, isolated storms will be possible each afternoon/evening this week.
A weak stationary front NW of the local waters will continue to weaken later this afternoon into this evening. Winds this afternoon are SE/S 5-10 kt but will shift to W/WNW late tonight as the weak stationary front pushes SE again before washing out. Another diurnal wind shift is expected Wednesday as winds shift from W in the morning to S/SE onshore flow in the afternoon. S/SSE winds 5-10 kt continue through Thurs over the Ches Bay/rivers with 10-15 kt winds by the afternoon over the coastal waters. Winds become SW 10-15 kt Thurs evening into early Thurs night as a cold front begins to push south over the local waters. By late Thurs night, winds become W 10 kt, eventually becoming NW 5-10 kt by late Fri morning before turning to N Fri afternoon. The strongest Cold Air Advection surge behind the cold front is expected to lag until Fri night through Sat morning with N winds 10- 15 kt.
Seas of 2-3 ft and waves of 1-2 ft continue through late week. By late Thurs night, seas of 3-4 ft and waves of 2-3 ft will be briefly possible.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.