Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
20
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ632 Forecast Issued: 1016 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
Rest Of Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun...S Winds 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts To 30 Kt In The Evening. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Mon...W Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw With Gusts To 25 Kt In The Evening, Becoming W With Gusts To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010am EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Synopsis
High pressure will build into and over the area today. Another storm system is expected to track through the local area during Sunday. High pressure will return for late Monday through Tuesday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1010am EST Saturday... Late this morning, surface high pressure (1025+mb) was centered just to the west of the CWA. Under a sunny sky, temps were in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will be transient this afternoon. sliding offshore tonight, as Sun's system approaches from the WSW. Highs today will be near 60/lower 60s for most of the area, though a bit cooler near the Bay/coast, and on the Ern Shore with highs in the mid to upper 50s. High clouds will gradually fill in this afternoon into the overnight, thickening/lowering by sunrise, as low pressure/frontal boundary approaches from the WSW. Lows tonight mainly in the lower to mid 40s.

Short Term - Sunday Through Tuesday
As of 315am EST Saturday... Rain returns on Sunday as low pressure, which will either be vertically stacked or close to it, travels NE through the Great Lakes region. The accompanying front will pass through the local area through the day Sunday. Rain/rain showers will spread across the area from near daybreak into early Sunday evening, in advance of the frontal boundary. Likely to categorical Probability of Precipitation (60-90%) in place during this period across the local area with main focus shifting from the Piedmont in the morning to the Eastern Shore in the afternoon. Showers will taper off late in the evening. Regarding thunder, did put in a slight chance for areas south of I-64 for late morning/early afternoon given that HREF does show a few hundred joules of MUCAPE in this area. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will range between ~0.25" to ~0.75" with highest amounts in areas west of I-95. Sunday will also be breezy with southerly winds gusting to around 35mph near the coast, 25-30mph inland. Highs on Sunday will be near 70 south US-460 and low-mid 60s north.

A secondary, dry cold front passes through the area Monday before high pressure fills in behind Monday night and Tuesday. Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 40s for most, but low 50s in the far SE. Cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 50s in the NW and low 60s in the SE. Colder Monday night/Tuesday morning with lows in the 30s. Highs on Tuesday will a touch cooler, with only far southern areas reaching 60.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Friday
As of 315am EST Saturday... Surface low pressure passes through the Great Lakes region and into Eastern Canada Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The accompanying cold front will pass through the local area at this time. Global models are fairly good agreement that there will be precipitation associated with this front, so allowed Likely Probability of Precipitation Wednesday, but still capped it at 60% since it is still 5 days out at this point. Bringing in slight chance to the western half of the FA by 06-12z Wed, then likely Probability of Precipitation take over most of the FA by the afternoon. The front will then move offshore Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Southerly flow ahead of the front will allow highs on Wednesday to creep up into the upper 60s in NE NC and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Lows Wednesday morning in the 40s.

High pressure builds in behind the front late in the week. Noticeably cooler for Thursday and Friday. Highs generally in the 50s. Lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid-30s inland to the upper 40s in the SE. Much colder Friday morning with lows in the 20s for many, 30s right along the coast.

Marine
As of 630am EST Saturday... Dropped the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Lower James River with the morning update. Remainder of the forecast remains as is.

Previous Discussion:

The cold front is now well to our south and east early this morning as high pressure is building in from the WNW. Winds are NW at 15- 25kt with gusts of 25-35kt over the bay/ocean, with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions over most of the rivers (except the Lower James). The Gale Warnings have been replaced with SCAs. Have also dropped the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the upper rivers. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) run until 10AM for the bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound, and run until 1-4PM for the ocean. Winds will diminish below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds by late morning, but will become SW and increase to ~15kt by late tonight. Strong (~992mb) low pressure is forecast to track from the Midwest to Lake Erie on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Breezy conditions are expected over land areas on Sunday. Another round of solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is expected from Sun-late Sunday evening (SW winds 20-25kt with gusts of ~30kt over most of the marine area...including the rivers). There is the potential for a short period of low-end gale gusts across the coastal waters N of Parramore Island, and a Gale Watch has been issued from 1 to 10PM Sunday (confidence is not high enough to go straight to a warning). Have also issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the upper rivers on Sunday, but will hold off on SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the rest of the area (in collab w/ neighboring offices) given the headline that is currently in effect. Cannot rule out a few 30-35kt gusts near the land/water interface on the bay/rivers/sound during the afternoon hours on Sun.

Behind the front, winds become W-NW at ~20kt on Monday. Seas build to 5-7 feet (possibly 8 feet near Buoy 44009) by Sunday evening/night. Winds and seas are forecast to fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds by Monday night, and sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then expected to continue through at least Wedam as high pressure takes control again. Another round of marine headlines is expected Wed-Thu as a stronger cold front quickly crosses the area from the WNW.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 500am EST Saturday... A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Atlantic coast of SE VA and Currituck County for this morning's high tide. Elevated S-SW winds will result in rising water levels in the mid/upper Ches Bay late Sunday (potentially to 1.5ft above astronomical tide levels). Nuisance to minor tidal flooding is possible from Cambridge to Crisfield during the aftn/evening high tide cycle on Sunday.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 10am to 10pm EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 634-654-656. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ658.