Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1044am EDT Wednesday September 23 2020
High pressure remains over the area today before pushing offshore Thursday. Weak low pressure and remnant moisture from Beta potentially moves through the region later in the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1040am EDT Wednesday... Current grids in good shape with only minor changes made this morning. High clouds are being suppressed south a bit as high pressure builds in. Vsby sat loop showing some smoke aloft, but not as much as last week. Overall, a mstly sunny day ahead. Highs in the mid-upper 70s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday Night
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... The upper ridge breaks down by tonight and Thursday as a mid- level trough associated with the remnants of TC Beta gradually moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. High clouds increase tonight and then some thicker mid and high clouds are possible by Thursday. Forecast lows tonight range from the mid to upper 50s, with locally ~60F along the coast. Forecast highs Thursday range from the low/mid 70s over the Piedmont (with some thicker cloud cover) to the mid/upper 70s toward the coast.
The mid-level trough slowly approaches from the WSW Thursday night, Friday, and into Friday night. The high offshore and ridge aloft are rather strong, so the trough does dampen and slow down as it approaches the area. There is still considerable spread amongst the deterministic guidance (the 23/00z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) remains the farthest N and most moist) and NBM shows mostly chance PoPs for the area. At this time, the official forecast is generally 20-30% Probability of Precipitation across the N and 30-50% across the S for showers. Cloud cover should keep highs in the low/mid 70s Friday, with lows Thursday and Friday nigheights in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... A weak ridge tries to build Saturday into Sunday allowing highs to increase into the upper 70s to near 80F on Saturday and Monday with highs in the low 80s on Sunday. The ridge moves offshore ahead of an anomalously deep trough approaching from the W Tuesday into Wednesday as the pattern becomes very amplified with a large ridge over western half of the country and a large trough over the eastern half. Diurnally enhanced precipitation chances will increase ahead of this trough with a chance for a few showers and perhaps a low-end chance for an isolated thunderstorm late Saturday and Sunday. Showers will once again be possible Monday (more likely in the eastern half of the CWA) before the larger swath of moisture along and ahead of the cold front moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms also possible. This trough will allow for cooler Fall temps to enter the region with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 70s dropping into the upper 60s to around 70F on Wednesday. Lows will generally be in the 60s Saturday, Sunday, and Monday nigheights with a few upper 50s possible in the far NW on Monday night. Lows drop into the 50s (low 60s possible along the coast) on Tuesday night and then down into the upper 40s NW to 50s SE on Wednesday night.
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... Latest analysis shows post tropical cyclone Teddy just off the coast of Nova Scotia, and high pressure off to our west over the TN valley. West winds generally 5-10 kts this morning. Waves/Seas continue to be elevated and will be slow to subside today. Waves in the bay are 2-3 ft with around 4 ft at the mouth of the bay. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the mouth of the bay was extended for several more hours and now goes until 14Z. Seas are 5-8 ft over the northern coastal waters and 8-11 ft over the southern coastal waters. By late tonight seas subside to 3-5 ft over the northern coastal waters and 3-6 ft over the southern coastal waters. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for all of the coastal waters runs until 05Z late tonight.
High pressure slides offshore for Thursday and Friday, with the winds becoming southerly 5-10 kts. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. The calmer marine conditions are expected to persist through the weekend with no headlines anticipated.
As of 1030am EDT Wednesday... Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Nottoway River near Sebrell and the Blackwater River near Franklin. Expect Sebrell to drop below flood stage later today. Franklin to remain in flood stage longer.
See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ and weather.gov/AKQ for more site-specific information.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 530am EDT Wednesday... Tidal anomalies are running about 1-1.5 ft above MLLW this morning. Meanwhile, the last flood/ebb cycle was around 1-1.5 kt. Have issued Coastal Flood Statements for Virginia Beach and Currituck county from 11am until 4pm and for the lower Ches Bay and Northampton county from 12pm until 6pm Wednesday for nuisance coastal flooding that might reach minor flood stage. Northampton county (specifically the Nassawadox Creek near Bayford) may need a Coastal Flood Advisory for the high tide this afternoon, but will wait to see the tidal trends today before making a decision.
Swells enhanced by Hurricane Teddy (well offshore), with periods of ~15 seconds, and very large waves of 10-12 feet+ will make for very dangerous conditions at the Atlantic Beaches through Tuesday. In addition, there is dune/beach erosion potential, especially for more vulnerable locations with the high tide cycles today before conditions improve beginning on Wednesday. Beach Hazards Statements/High Rip Current Risk continue today and is forecast to remain high on Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coast as waves in the surf zone range from 8-10ft North to 10-12ft South.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...High Surf Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.