Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Late.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight, Then Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Rain Likely In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1243am EST Fri Feb 26 2021
Cool high pressure will build from the Ohio Valley eastward to off the New England coast through Friday. A series of low pressure areas and frontal boundaries will affect the region from late Friday through Monday afternoon. Cool high pressure will build down over the area for Monday night into Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 930pm EST Thursday... Two areas of high pressure are still evident late this evening: one weak high over the Delmarva Peninsula and a second stronger one now over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures have quickly fallen into the mid 30s-low 40s with light winds/clear skies.
Dry weather will continue overnight. However, expect an increase in high clouds (especially central and south), well in advance of low pressure moving from the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Only minor changes to the forecast were made with the evening update. Lows will range from 28-34F in most areas, with mid to perhaps upper 30s across extreme SE portions of the CWA. Low temps may actually occur early Friam before leveling off (or even rising slightly) just before sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400pm EST Thursday... Short term models in general agreement for Fri through Sun, with more unsettled, wet weather expected starting late Fri/Fri evening. Fri will start out dry, but clouds will be increasing from SSW to NE during the day, as the high slides from PA to off the New England coast. Rain chances will then increase from SW to NE later Fri afternoon through Fri evening, as a couple of low pressure areas and a warm front approach from the south. Highs will mainly be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Fri night through Sun, increased low level moisture coupled with several boundaries and low pressure areas, will result in periods of rain/showers across the region. There could be a brief mix of rain/snow over extrm NW counties Fri night into early Sat morning. Otherwise, rain/showers expected through the short term. Lows Fri night will range from the mid to upper 30s extrm NW, to the mid 40s SE. Highs on Sat will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows Sat night in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
During Sun, frontal boundary may lift into extrm northern portions of the area. So, this will result in warmer temps over the region, esply the southern half. Highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s over the extrm north or the eastern shore, to the upper 60s to lower 70s over the southern half. At this time, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts will generally range from around .40 inch over extrm SE, to .75-.90 inch over the nrn/NW counties.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
As of 420pm EST Thursday... Frontal boundary with more rain/showers will drop into and across the area Sunday night through Monday afternoon. The front will push well south of the region Monday night into Tue, with cool high pressure building in from the north. Models then diverge on their solutions from later Tuesday through Thu. The GFS maintains dry weather during this period, keeping any systems well south of the area. While the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) brings another system up into and across the region Tuesday night through Wed. Leaning toward the ECMWF for now, with at least small chances for precipitation (maybe even a mix of rain/snow Tuesday night). Mainly dry weather for later Wednesday through Thu. Generally near normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the extended period.
As of 900pm EST Thursday... High pressure continues to build into the region tonight before sliding off to the NE Friday afternoon/evening. Winds are generally out of the E at 5-10 kt. Waves in the Bay are 1-2 ft with seas offshore 2-3 ft. Winds shift to NNE 5-10 kt tonight before increasing to 10 to 15 kt by around sunrise. Center of the surface high to our north will translate eastward and offshore on Friday keeping NE/onshore flow in place. The gradient is forecast to tighten Friday night as low pressure takes shape over the Carolinas. Winds will increase to 15-20 kt from south to north early Saturday morning with seas increasing to 4-7 ft S and 3-5 ft N. A series of disturbances will move across the area this weekend along a frontal boundary. 12z guidance has trended farther north with this boundary for the latter half of the weekend which would support a southerly component to the flow across the waters. Seas are forecast to remain elevated through Sunday morning. It is unclear if the Bay, Sound, and rivers will reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria this weekend but likelihood of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the coastal waters continues to trend upward due to seas.
As of 930pm EST Thursday... The Flood Warning continues for the Nottoway River near Sebrell.
The Blackwater River above Franklin has fallen below flood stage. However, minor flooding is still possible within and below Franklin, as the floodwater slowly moves downstream. See water.weather.gov for more site specific information.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.