Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers This Evening. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early In The Afternoon. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms Late. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 324pm EDT Monday Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern half of the forecast area through this evening, with a southward expansion possible later. Increased chance in heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms Tuesday as remnants of an MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) moves across the area. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms potentially becoming strong to severe. 2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms. 3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend. As of 320pm EDT Monday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms return this evening, with some storms potentially becoming strong to severe. Latest weather analysis shows a warm front lifted through the area this morning, now residing north of the Commonwealth. This front has helped temperatures get to the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Breezy southerly winds have increased this afternoon behind the front due to a well-mixed profile, with gusts up to 30 mph. This evening, a cold front will approach the area, providing a forcing mechanism for shower and storm development. With the warm dewpoints, ample amounts of instability with MLCAPE values around ~1500 J/kg are presently noted. Better shear values are observed just to the north of the area, but the limited amount present (~25-35 kt) will allow for storm growth. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values have increased across the area to >1.5", which could also result in localized flash flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. Decent low level lapse rates from the very warm surface temperatures favor the potential for cold-pool dominated storms with water-loaded downdrafts. Damaging winds are the primary threat with any storm, although cannot rule out large hail. The northern half of the area from a line roughly west to east across Farmville/Chesterfield/ Mathews/Accomac are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM. The timing of the convection will likely begin late afternoon to early evening in the piedmont and reaching the RIC metro around 7-8 PM. Further south, a cap on the environment with less favorable conditions leaves more uncertainty on how strong storms will be. Any storms would reach SE VA late evening around 9-10 PM, which is a less than favorable time for severe storms due to the loss of daytime heat. If the environment is able to sustain storms, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for portions outside the current watch. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms. The aforementioned cold front will be slow to move out of the area and a subsequent surface low will form along the front and slide across the area Tuesday as an MCV. With the front slowly crossing the area Tuesday, warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s across the SE VA/NE NC will keep sufficient instability levels throughout the day. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will quickly rebound with values >2.0" for areas along the Ches. Bay and Atlantic Coast. Localized areas could see an additional 1.00-2.00" of rainfall, with more widespread values of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall across a large portion of the area Tuesday, on top of any rainfall tonight. While any and all rain is beneficial, there is a concern for areas of flash flooding, especially the urban and poor drainage areas. Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms (level 1 of 5) as isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds. There is still some uncertainty with storm development, but the 12z models have came into better agreement with training showers and possible storms. KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend. A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up for late week. Mainly seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven, scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each day. Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70. Marine As of 320pm EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through tonight with gusty S-SE winds ahead of an approaching system. - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected for much of this week. Afternoon weather analysis shows a low pressure system tracking across eastern OH and western PA. The pressure gradient ahead of the low has tightened over the waters allowing winds to increase out of the S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the bay and 25kt across the ocean. Waves are much lower than expected with 1-2ft across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the evening and into tonight, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten and winds will increase to 20-25kt with some gusts approaching 30kt. The highest confidence in these 30kt gusts are across the ocean waters north of the VA/NC border. Small Craft Advisories have been issued and are in effect for all waters, now including the Sound and southern coastal waters, as hi-res guidance continues to gusts around 25kt. Seas will also increase to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5ft across the ocean. In addition to the wind, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and into tonight. These storms could pose the risk of gusts greater than 34kt and a waterspout cannot be ruled out especially across the the far north. The low will track north and a weak cold front will pass across the waters tomorrow. Winds shift to the NW by late tomorrow afternoon/ evening behind the front, and may increase slightly tomorrow night. Will note that additional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) maybe needed as models continue to hint on gusts nearing 20kt. Local probs have increased to 50% of gusts greater than 18kt across the bay tomorrow evening/night. Prevailing sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected the rest of the week as high pressure returns. Rip current risk has been downgraded for today to moderate due to reports and the waves being lower than expected. The rip risk looks to be low through much of this week. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ635>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. |
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