Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ632 Forecast Issued: 713 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers Likely.
Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
828pm EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Synopsis
A warm front lifts north of the area Sunday with high pressure pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses the area Monday night. High pressure builds back into the region for the mid week period.

Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
As of 825pm EDT Saturday... High pressure over the area will slowly shift offshore later tonight into Sunday. This will low mid level moisture ahead of a surface warm front to stream into the area later tonight into Sunday. As such, will maintain a partly cloudy forecast, however will increase low temps slightly with upper 40s west and low-mid 50s near the coast.

As of 255pm EDT Saturday... High pressure remains over the area. Expect an increase in mid level moisture across the north late tonite as a warm front apprchs from the west. Thus, mstly clr south, pt cloudy cloudy north. Lows mid 40s west to lwr 50s along the coast.

Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday
As of 255pm EDT Saturday... The warm front pushes north of the area Sunday while the high becomes centered off the coast. Return southerly flow along with plenty of sunshine allows the above normal temps to cont. Highs in the 70s. Fair-pt cloudy and milder Sunday nite. Lows mid 50s NW to lwr 60s SE.

Monday starts off pt to mostly sunny ahead of an apprchg cold front forecast to cross the local area Monday night. Moisture increases ahead of this feature for scattered showers to dvlp Monday aftrn across the Piedmont. A fairly decent slug of moisture/lift will then accompany the cold front around 21Z-03Z across the west, 00Z-06Z across the east.

Increasing instab along the bndry will lead to some tstrms Monday eve with the actual frontal passage. Storm Prediction Center has the entire area outlooked for a svr threat, with a SLGHT risk across the Piedmont. This appears to be assctd with the convection for a svrl hr prd with the actual frontal passage Monday eve. Main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Lclly hvy downpours possible given increasing PW's. The front pushes offshore after 06Z, ending the thunder threat but with scattered showers continuing thru the nite. Will ramp up to high chance Probability of Precipitation late Monday across the west with likely Probability of Precipitation all areas Monday nite, tapering off across the west after midnite. Warm Monday with highs upper 70s-lwr 80s. Lows Monday nite mid 50s-lwr 60s.

Although the systm shifts offshore Tue, models show enuf wrap around moisture for a contd shwr chc, highest ne. Increasing sunshine across the sw during the aftrn. Highs mid 60s NW to lwr 70s SE.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 255pm EDT Saturday... Wrap around showers end Tuesday nite across the east as the systm pushes farther offshore. Lows mid-upper 40s away from the water, around 50 near the water. Wednesday should be dry ahead of the next systm apprchg from the west. Highs in the mid-upper 60s.

Unsettled pattern taking shape late next week as another anomalously strong Pacific system moves into the plains by mid week. The GFS conts to be quicker with the system, while the ECMWF/CMC are slower by closing off the low and modeling a broad, anomalously deep east coast trough Fri/Sat. Will cont to follow the slower scenario given a forecast neg tilted systm.

Will carry chance showers each period starting Thurs aftrn (30-50 Probability of Precipitation for now). Could also see a weak "in-situ" wedge across the Piedmont. Highs both Thu/Fri in the lwr 60s NW-lwr 70s SE. Lows mid 40s-mid 50s. Highs Sat in the 60s.

Marine
As of 255pm EDT Saturday... Generally benign conditions across the waters this afternoon as high pressure builds across the region. Winds range from W to NW around 5 to 10 knots. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 to 2 feet. High pressure will become centered over the region tonight into Sunday morning, with westerly flow becoming N and then NE around 10 knots.

Tomorrow into Monday, the flow becomes southerly as a warm front lifts north across the area and low pressure approaches from the west. Winds approach Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday night into Monday across the Chesapeake Bay and potentially the northern coastal waters as S winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. In addition to the increasing winds, seas will also build to 3 to 4 feet (potentially 5 feet out 20 nm) beginning Sunday night through Monday. A cold front crosses the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is more cold air behind this front and the models are trying to show the development of a stronger surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds will be possible over much of the waters in the wake of the front Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential for some gusts to Gale force out 20 nm Tuesday evening/night. Winds slowly diminish through the day Wednesday, becoming sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) by Wednesday night. Seas build to 4 to 6 feet Tuesday into Tuesday night, and linger around 5 feet (especially out 20 nm) through Wednesday night. Another strong system may try to impact the region late in the week into next weekend, bringing the potential for at least additional SCAs.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.