Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight. |
| Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Rain In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 211pm EST Monday Dec 15 2025 Synopsis Very cold temperatures continue through tonight. A noticeable moderating trend begins on Tuesday, with relatively milder temperatures expected from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front brings a good chance for showers to the area Thursday night into early Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 1215pm EST Monday... Key Message: - Another very cold night tonight, though it won't be quite as cold as it was this morning. Winds will continue to be light through the night. Surface high pressure is nearly over the area this afternoon with mostly sunny skies, temperatures near 30F, and light winds (though it's still a bit gusty at the coast). Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 30s. Expect another very cold night despite a light SW wind. However, it won't quite be as cold as it was this morning with forecast lows in the upper teens-lower 20s across much of the area. No cold weather headlines will be needed as winds will be light enough to keep apparent temps no lower than ~15F. Short Term - Tuesday Through Thursday Night As of 200pm EST Monday... Key Messages: - Dry through midweek with highs slowly moderating towards the 50s and low 60s through Thursday. - Widespread showers are expected Thursday night into Friday morning, with a few tenths of an inch of rain expected across much of the area. - Cooler, breezy, and dry on Friday but certainly not as cold as today. Dry weather continues through the mid week period. High pressure will get suppressed to the S/SE on Tue/Wednesday as the flow aloft gradually shifts to the SW. The surface high then expands and pushes well offshore on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure at the surface and aloft tracks well to our north late Thursday-Friday AM, dragging another cold front through the area. Deep layered S-SW flow will allow for a decent amount of moisture return in advance of the front late Thu/Thu night, with PWs briefly increasing to 1-1.3" Thursday night. Showers are possible as early as Thursday aftn/evening, but the best chance for widespread showers is Thursday night-Fridayam along and just ahead of the front. It still appears that much of the area will see 0.2-0.4" of rain from this system based on the latest model/ensemble guidance. Will see temps moderate through the week starting with highs in the 40s on Tues, 50s on Wed, and 50s to low 60s on Thurs. Tues night lows will be in the mid 20s-low 30s, with lows a few degrees warmer for Wednesday night. Dry, cooler and breezy on Friday behind the front with highs in the upper 40s-mid 50s (though highs could occur during theam with temps falling a few degrees during the aftn). .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200pm EST Monday... Key Message: - Seasonable temps continue on Sat, then potentially mild on Sunday ahead of another cold front. Mostly dry and seasonable through the weekend and early next week as the flow aloft flattens out. A bit chillier on Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50F. Briefly milder weather is possible on Sunday in advance of another cold front (which will only bring a slight chance of showers). Temps drop back down to near seasonal averages on Monday behind that front. No big storm systems are on the horizon for at least the next week or so. Marine As of 205pm EST Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect S of Cape Charles through this afternoon for elevated seas. - Another potent cold front crosses the waters, with another period of elevated winds and seas expected. High pressure is quickly building into the region this afternoon from the W, yielding diminishing winds and dry/mostly clear weather. Latest observations depict wind speeds of 10-15 kt, highest across the northern waters where there is still a residual pressure gradient. Seas have also fallen given the decreasing winds, but are still elevated to 4-6 ft offshore of the NC and southern VA waters. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4pm this afternoon. Elsewhere, all prior SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) were expired on time. A weak disturbance and surface trough slide through later tonight; while a few gusts to 20 kt are possible as winds shift to the SW, am not confident enough for frequent >20 kt gusts on the Chesapeake Bay to raise additional SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) at this time. Our local wind probabilities max out at ~50% for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, but only in the northern bay zone N of Windmill Pt. This wind increase will be brief, with winds again turning light for the remainder of Tuesday. Another similar increase in SW winds is possible early Wednesday morning ahead of a dry cold front passage, but this is also looking primarily sub-SCA. A stronger cold front approaches the waters Thursday as high pressure anchors well offshore. S-SW winds become gusty to 25-30 kt Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of the front. While some guidance suggests some low-end Gale potential, now-chilly water temperatures will likely prevent efficient mixing of higher winds aloft to the water surface. The current model consensus pushes the front through around sunrise Friday morning, with a wind shift to the WNW expected post-frontal Friday afternoon. Strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low- end Gale conditions are expected post-frontal, particularly by Friday evening as cold advection maximizes. Seas will also increase to 5-7 ft by Friday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. The highest probs for low-end Gales are currently confined to the northern coastal waters. Primarily sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) from later Friday into the weekend. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Low Water Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. |
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