Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Late Morning, Then Increasing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot, Building To 1 To 2 Ft Late. A Chance Of Rain Late.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 15 Kt, Becoming N 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Waves Building To 4 To 6 Ft. Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Waves 4 To 6 Ft. Snow, Mainly In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft Late.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft In The Late Morning And Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
525am EST Fri Jan 28 2022
Low pressure develops east of Florida today, then deepens as it tracks northeast off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts Friday night and Saturday. Warming trend next week as high pressure moves off the coast.
Near Term - Through Saturday
As of 500am EST Friday... Blizzard Warning has been issued for the Virginia Eastern Shore and Worcester County, Maryland. Snow accumulations of 8-12 inches are expected with N-NW winds 30-35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph. Kept the Winter Storm Warning for the remainder of our Maryland Eastern Shore because confidence is low that wind speeds will reach blizzard criteria and occur while heavy snow is falling. 6-12 inches of snow accumulation is still expected in for areas of the Maryland Eastern Shore that have a Winter Storm Warning. There may be localized areas of more than a foot of snow accumulation across the lower MD Eastern Shore, especially from Salisbury to Ocean City.
Winter Storm Warning have been issued along the western shores of the Chesapeake Bay from the Northern Neck to the Hampton Roads and the northern Outer Banks. 4-6 inches of snow accumulation is expected for areas of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula with a Winter Storm Warning. Farther south, 2-4 inches of snow accumulation is expected for areas Hampton Roads and Outer Banks under a Winter Storm Warning.
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for inland location. 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulations is expected. There is a possibility that localized 3-4 inches of snow accumulation north and west of downtown Richmond. Lesser amounts are expected for inland areas of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, up to an inch.
An upper-level trough is digging southeast over the Midwest this morning. A broad area of light snow has already develop downstream of the trough axis across Kentucky and Ohio. The trough is expected to amplify more as it crosses the Appalachian Mountains. This will allow for heavier snow to develop downstream of the trough axis as it moves across central Virginia and western North Carolina. Precip may begin as rain across central VA this afternoon with temperatures around 40F but quickly change over to snow later this afternoon and this evening. The heaviest snow with the upper-level trough may line up from Farmville-Ashland-Tappahannock. As the snow moves south this evening, dry air northwest of the coastal storm will likely diminish snow rates for southern VA and northern NC near the I-85 and I-95 corridors. Snow with the upper trough will likely dissipate as the trough phases with the coastal storm.
Surface low pressure is developing east of Cape Canaveral this morning. As the upper-level trough deepens across the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas this afternoon, the surface low will be directed north and track east of the Southeast U.S. coast this afternoon/evening. Precip will extend northwards towards Eastern NC and Southeastern VA ahead of the center of low pressure. Precip will likely start as rain for NC and southeast VA early Friday night. As the center of the low passes east then northeast of southeast VA and northeast NC, rain will change snow as colder air filters south. Cold air will likely already be in place for the Eastern Shore, Middle Peninsula, and Northern Neck that precipitation will likely start as snow, or very brief period of rain. The heaviest snow is expected when the center of low pressure is east of our coastline. Models are in better agreement than the snow associated with the coastal storm will not extend much farther west than the Chesapeake Bay. However, the NAM is still consistently showing snow as far west as I-95, but remains the outlier.
Temperatures will climb into the 40s today ahead of the precip. As the precipitation begins to fall across central VA and MD Eastern Shore, temperatures will fall to around freezing this evening. Colder air will move in tonight as the low pressure passes to the east. Temperature will fall into the 20s everywhere tonight.
Snow is expected to end from west to east early Saturday morning. Possibly linger into the early afternoon for the Maryland beaches. Cold and windy for Saturday behind the low. Highs will be in the low 30s to upper 20s and mid 20s for the Maryland Eastern Shore). Wind chill values will be in the low teens to single digits during the day on Saturday. Below zero wind chills are expected for the Eastern Shore Saturday night.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Sunday Night
As of 500am EST Friday... Cold air will be in place as the coastal storm moves into southeast Canada Sunday morning. Sunday morning will likely be the coldest morning of the season for many locations. Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecasted to be in the single digit to mid teens along the coast. Wind will still be breezy early on Sunday along the coast. Wind chills will be below zero near the coast Sunday morning. High temperatures will be in 30s, and upper 20s for the Eastern shore, under mostly sunny skies.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 115am EST Friday... Upper-level trough that will be positioned over the area this week and bring cold air south will begin to move off the coast Monday. Monday morning low temperatures will start cold, teens and 20s, and high temperatures in the 40s. Ridge will build north over the East Coast by Tuesday, bring warmer air back into the region.
A warming trend continues through the end of next week as the wind becomes southerly as high pressure moves offshore. Lows Monday night range from the 20s to the lower 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Highs Tuesday range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, with at least mid 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday and Thursday, after morning lows in the 30s. Next chance of precipitation (all rain) will be Thursday as a storm system tracks from SW to NE west of the Appalachian mountains.
As of 345am EST Friday... Benign across the marine area early this morning but conditions will begin to deteriorate later today, with rapidly worsening conditions late tonight into Saturday. Will be maintaining Gale Warnings for all of the Ocean/Bay/Sound/lower James, though with a rapidly intensifying surface low (down to ~970mb) by later Saturday off the coast of New England, would not be surprised to see a few gusts to storm force across the northern coastal waters. Also, given the intensity of the system will be upgrading the remaining SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) in the upper rivers to Gale Warnings for frequent gusts to 35 kt by Sat morning.
As for timing, light E?NE winds today will become NE and increase this evening, as the low pressure center approaches Cape Hatteras. Gale conditions are expected to start after midnight night with north winds increasing into Sat morning. North winds 25-35 kt (Gusts to 35-45 kt) will become NW during Sat, with the highest winds occurring through Sat afternoon. The highest winds will be over the Atlantic Ocean coastal waters. NW winds will remain strong Sat evening, then diminish into Sunday morning, as the storm moves farther away to the north, and surface high pressure builds in from the west. Seas will build to 6-10 ft Fri night into Sat evening, and remain elevated through Sunday morning. Waves in the bay will build to 3-6 ft.
Calmer conditions below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria then expected for Sunday aftn into Monday night.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 345am EST Friday... With strong NNE winds shifting to the NNW, sites across the lower Bay and zones adjacent to the Ocean from Ocean City MD south to Currituck NC are currently forecast to reach into minor flood thresholds with the high tide cycle early Saturday morning. Overall, it appears that the storm intensifies too far offshore and while pushing N of the local area for moderate flooding and any Coastal Flood Watch issuances at this time, though this will need to be monitored closely. High Surf Advisories may be needed but w/ a quick shift in wind direction to the NNW, confidence at seeing 8 ft seas nearshore is too low at this time.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Winter Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Saturday for MDZ021>023. Blizzard Warning from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Saturday for MDZ024-025. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Saturday for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for NCZ013>016-030>032. Winter Storm Warning from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for NCZ017-102. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 10am EST Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-509>516. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Saturday for VAZ081-087>089-092. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for VAZ082-083-090. Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for VAZ093-096-524. Winter Storm Warning from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for VAZ095-097-098-523-525. Blizzard Warning from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Saturday for VAZ099-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4pm EST Saturday for VAZ075-076-517>522. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Saturday for VAZ065>067-079-080. Winter Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Saturday for VAZ077-078-084>086.
Gale Warning from 1am Saturday to 4am EST Sunday for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 1am to 4pm EST Saturday for ANZ635>638. Gale Warning from 1am to 10pm EST Saturday for ANZ630>634.