Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Patchy Fog This Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft Late. Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
849am EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Weak low pressure moves east along a front to our south this morning. High pressure builds into the area for the weekend. A strong storm system is expected to affect the region on Monday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 630am EST Friday... Adjusted the Dense Fog Advisory to add portions of Hampton Roads and trim back northern extent farther inland where VSBYs have improved.
Prev Discussion Below... Latest analysis shows a weak front just to the south of the area, with low pressure to our SW over western NC. Calm winds and plenty of low level moisture is resulting in patchy to areas of dense fog over southern VA, interior NE NC, and the MD/VA eastern shore. A dense fog advisory goes until 9am for interior portions of southern VA and NE NC, with an SPS elsewhere where the coverage is more patchy. The low to our south will move across NC this morning and off the coast this afternoon. This will result in slight chance to chance probability of precipitation over the far SE this morning into the early afternoon. The rest of the area will be partly to mostly cloudy but dry. High temps this afternoon range from the lower 60s to near 70 SE. Low temps tonight range from the lower 40s inland to mid and upper 40s near the coast.
Short Term - Saturday Through Monday Night
As of 200am EST Friday..
High pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and moves over the area on Sunday. This results in clearing skies on Saturday which will last through the first half of Sunday. High temps on Saturday in the 60s, with low temps Saturday night ranging from the low to mid 30s inland to lower 40s SE. High temps on Sunday from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Attention then turns to a potent system in the deep south that will ride the spine of the Appalachians late Sunday night through Monday. Chance probability of precipitation late Sunday night become likely overnight as a warm front lifts north across the area and then a cold front swings through the area Monday morning clearing the coast during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show PWAT (Precipitable Water) values well above normal for the end of November ranging from 1.3-1.5 inches. There also will be a strong LL jet (50-60 kts) moving across the area Monday morning through mid afternoon. While there isn't a lot of instability, there is enough to place slight chance to chance thunder in the forecast. In addition to the rain, expect breezy conditions with a few stronger wind gusts in some of the more robust convective cells. Clearing conditions by Monday night as the cold front pushes further away from the coast. High temps on Monday range from the lower 60s W to upper 60s E. Low temps Monday night mid 30s W to lower 40s E.
.Long Term - Tuesday Through Thursday: As of 400pm EST Thursday... Below average temperatures are expected for the first few days of December. An upper-level low will remain near the area but centered to the northwest of the area, across the Eastern Great Lakes, for duration of the long term period. Rain is forecast to move off the coast by Monday night as a cold front approach the area from the west-southwest. Much colder and drier air will be filtering into the area Monday night into Tuesday. However, models are indicating that the coldest air will remain along and west of the mountains. High temperatures will be in the 40s, and low temperatures in the mid 20s inland to low 30s along the coast.
A warming trend is expected to begin on Thursday as storm system approaches the area from the southwest.
As of 845am EST Friday... Extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 11am for the Lower Bay/Lower James given that cameras/nearby obs continue to show VSBYs aob 1 NM.
Previous of 355am EST Friday... Early this morning, weak surface high pressure was centered over nrn KY, while a frontal boundary was laying off the NC coast. Winds were NNW 5-10 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-4 ft. That frontal boundary will push farther SE and out to sea during today, as the weak high builds over the area. A weak cold front crosses the waters tonight into Sat morning, with stronger high pressure building into and over the waters Sat afternoon into Sunday morning. Northerly winds will be 5-15 kt Sat and Sat night, then NE winds 5-10 kt becoming SE or S during Sun. Strong SE then S winds are expected late Sunday night through Mon, as a strong low pressure system tracks north along the Appalachian Mountains. Gale conditions will be possible Monday with SE or S winds 25-35 kt, with gusts to 40 kt possible.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for NCZ012>014- 030>032. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for VAZ065-066- 079-087-088-092-093-095>098. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11am EST this morning for ANZ632-634- 638.