Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
127am EDT Tuesday August 20 2019
A weak trough of low pressure will persist across the area today. A stronger cold front moves though the area late Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure builds into the area for the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 955pm EDT Monday... isolated tstms continuing to linger...mainly N and W and RIC. Have hung onto 20-30% Probability of Precipitation those areas until about 06Z/20...OTW partly cloudy to clear overnight w/ lows in the l-m70s. Did add patchy FG to inland areas after midnight.
.SHORT TERM /6am THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305pm EDT Monday... Much of the same for the next few days. May see better activity east of I-95 tomorrow as the models suggest a weak trough extending SE across the area. This will serve as a focus for shower/storm development during the afternoon, with locally heavy rainfall not out of the question due to the slow movement of any thunderstorm activity and precipitable water values around 2 inches. Shower/storm activity will diminish Tuesday evening then develop again mainly across the Piedmont Wednesday afternoon along the lee trough. A stronger frontal boundary moves toward the area Thursday which will serve as the focus for thunderstorms Thu aftn/evening. Will go with 40/50 Probability of Precipitation across the entire area Thu. Highs Tuesday will once again be in the low/mid 90s, while Wednesday/Thu may be just a tad cooler due to a little more in the way of cloud cover. However temps will still be in the lower 90s. Heat index values will once again top out in the 100-104 range on Tuesday.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 305pm Sunday... A potent area of low pressure (sfc-aloft) continues to slowly track tracks across Quebec Thu night-Fri while the trailing cold front approaches the region from the NW. Convection will likely be ongoing through a good portion of Thu night as the front (slowly) crosses the area. Model consensus has the front stalling across southern VA by 12z Fri, while the 12z/19 GFS continues to forecast the front to clear the area by late Fri AM. On the other hand, the latest ECMWF/GEM both have the front moving very slowly southward across the area on Fri before clearing the area sometime this weekend. The cold front potentially stalls (or very slowly moves southward) from Fri-next weekend. If the ECMWF/GEM solution verifies and the front slowly moves across southern portions of the CWA from Fri through the weekend, this would lead to continued chances of scattered aftn- evening convection across southern VA/NE NC. Far northern portions of the CWA likely remain dry next weekend (or see only isolated, diurnally- driven showers/tstms) as surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Northeast tries to build toward the region. For now, went with a model blend and have 20-50% Probability of Precipitation on Fri/Sat (highest S/lowest N). Dry/comfortable weather prevails late Sun-early next week as surface ridging continues to build over the area.
Highs mainly in the low-mid 80s through the extended period with lows in the 60s (except around 70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC).
As of 300pm EDT Monday... No headlines through mid week. S-SW winds will remain below 15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, seas 2-3 ft. A cold front approaches by later in the week. Pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of the front beginning later on Wednesday into Thursday. At this point winds appear to stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) but will be examined closely over the coming days. Waves will still be about 1-2 ft but should see a slight increase in seas to 2-4 ft. Models suggest the front should clear the area on Friday which will result in a wind shift to a northerly component.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.