Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ632 Forecast Issued: 1018 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
Rest Of Today...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. Rain Early In The Evening, Then Scattered Showers Late In The Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early In The Evening.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Sun...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.
Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.
Mon...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.
Mon Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1123am EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
A cold front pushes into the area this afternoon, before sliding offshore tonight into early Friday. Winds will become gusty tonight and on Friday. Northwesterly flow will allow weak disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures will warm well above normal for Easter Weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1120am EDT Thursday... Key Messages:

1. Flood Watch remains in effect for southeast VA/northeast NC through this evening where the heaviest rainfall is expected to continue through mid-afternoon.

2. Rain ends from west to east this afternoon and evening.

Midday analysis showing elongated surface low pressure lifting NNE along the Outer Banks. Behind the system, surface cold front nudging into western zones, with precipitation coming to an end across the piedmont. Have accordingly started to scale back PoPs well inland, while rain continues along the coast through early this evening.

12z CAMs continues to indicate rain falling heavily at times this afternoon across Hampton Roads and north along the Eastern Shore. This is when the forecasted rainfall totals of 2-3 inches still looks on track to occur (rainfall amounts generally 0.75-1.5" west of I-95). The Flood Watch remains in effect through the afternoon over Hampton Roads/SE VA into NE NC.

The front will move through the remainder of the area and offshore during the later afternoon into early evening, taking the rain with it. Sky gradually clears out late this evening and into the overnight hours. As mentioned, expect northerly winds to become a bit breezy behind the front as it moves east across the CWA. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s well inland with upper 30s to mid 40s from the I-95 corridor on east.

Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
As of 330am EDT Thursday... We will wake up Friday morning to the system moving offshore, leaving us with clearing skies and drier air pushing in. The local area will be in between the low offshore and a surface high pressure building in to the southwest. This will tighten our pressure gradient and create gusty west-northwest winds on Friday. Gusts to 20-25mph will be likely inland with 25-30mph across the coast and along the Eastern Shore. High temperatures will warm up in the mid 60s for most locations, with upper 50s to around 60 along the coast. The southern surface high will slide off the GA/FL coast on Saturday as we fall into northwesterly flow aloft here. This will allow disturbances upstream to have trajectories right towards VA. The first disturbance on Saturday looks to lose a lot of its steam as it comes out of Ohio and crosses the mountains; however, models continue to show some showers making their way into northern VA/lower MD Eastern Shore. Kept low Probability of Precipitation north of Richmond Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs will warm nicely to almost 10 degrees above normal, reaching the lower 70s along a slight southwesterly breeze. The Eastern Shore will stay in the lower to mid 60s. Clouds will remain overhead Saturday night resulting in mid lows around 50 degrees.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 330am EDT Thursday... Northwesterly flow persists into Sunday ahead of slight ridging building into the MS River Valley area. Another weak disturbance/moisture riding along the ridge will cross the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with showing some rain making it into our CWA (County Warning Area) late Sunday into Monday. Put a broad chance of rain across the CWA to account for this. Moisture continues to stream along the damp ridge ahead of a strengthening upper level low moving out of the Central Plains. Models have differing resolutions of this low pressure as of now, so exact details are fuzzy. For now, kept a slight chance of rain across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with the ridging overhead - expecting mid to upper 70s on Easter Sunday, so be sure to break out the sun dresses and linen suits. We will cool slightly to start the new work week as moisture streams into the area, though still forecasting highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Marine
As of 330am EDT Thursday... Key Messages:

1. The Gale watches for coastal waters zones N of Cape Charles Light, as well as the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, have been upgraded to Gale Warnings. These go into effect this afternoon.

2. The Gale Watch for the Chesapeake Bay has been cancelled. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued instead. These will go into effect this morning.

Early this morning, high pressure is sliding offshore ahead of an approaching front. NE winds are starting to pick up ahead of the front with latest obs showing 10-15kt. A few obs along the southern VA/NE NC coast are showing a few gusts around 20kt. Seas are 4-5ft and waves are around 1ft (2-3ft in mouth of the bay. Later today, secondary cyclogenesis will occur to the south of local waters. The low will then press NE offshore this evening and overnight. The tighter pressure gradient and Cold Air Advection behind the front and low pressure will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A 40-50kt LLJ and decent mixing over the water will further support the elevated winds. NE winds become northerly this morning, increasing to 15-20kt by late morning. Winds further increase and turn to the NW this evening with widespread 20-25kt expected. Highest winds will be in the southern coastal waters, where 25-30kt is expected. Frequent gusts of around 34kt are expected over the coastal waters. May even see a few gusts approach 40kt early this evening over southern coastal waters. Cannot rule out a few gale-force gusts in the bay, but this is expected to be short in duration. Therefore, decided to go with a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) instead. These conditions are expected to last through early Friday morning. Seas will build to 5-6ft by the afternoon, then 6- 7ft overnight.

Conditions improve on Friday as winds become westerly and high pressure builds in from the SW, though remaining breezy. Winds will be 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt through most of the day, diminishing slightly in the evening. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to return across all local waters Friday night with winds dropping down to 5- 10kt. High pressure centered to the S shifts offshore Saturday, turning winds to the SW at ~10kt. Benign marine conditions are expected Saturday through the early week.

Hydrology
As of 330am EDT Thursday... Seeing responses to the rainfall on the rivers out west - North Meherrin in Lunenburg, Appomattox in Farmville, Meherrin near South Hill, and James near Cartersville. As steady rain continues through the day today in addition to the water moving downstream, river forecast points are indicating that action or minor flood stage will be reached across those southern VA/northeast NC rivers within the next 24-36 hours - including Cashie River near Windsor, Meherrin River at Lawrenceville and Emporia, Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River. Northern forecast points may bump into action stage, including along the Appomattox River. Additionally, heavy rainfall may cause areas of land flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Flood Watch remains in effect for SE VA/NE NC through 8pm, with localized advisories and warning being issued if/when needed.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Flood Watch until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ087>090-092-093- 095>098-523>525.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT Friday for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ634- 650-652-654-656-658. Gale Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 10am EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.