Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Today...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346am EST Monday Jan 20 2020
Cold high pressure builds across the region through midweek. Much colder air spills across the region through Tuesday night...with temperatures slowly moderating for the latter half of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 345am EST Monday... Early morning surface analysis shows strong low pressure well northeast of New England moving away into the Atlantic while 1044mb high pressure builds southeast from the Dakotas toward the region. The resulting pressure gradient over the local area has kept winds around 10mph so far this morning and temperatures have not fallen as far as previously forecast. Bumped up lows a few degrees due to continued mixing, generally ranging from the low/mid 20s west of I- 95 to mid/upper 20s to the east.
Strong cold air advection continues today, brisk NW winds and temps in the mid to upper 30s result in a raw day across the region despite a mostly sunny sky. Wind chills will average in the mid/upper 20s, even through the afternoon. Bay-streamer clouds are possible downstream (south and southeast) of the Ches bay today as cold, dry air interacts with the relative warmth of the waters. Latest model guidance has trended toward winds not totally decoupling tonight, so have raised overnight lows a few degrees into the upper teens and low 20s.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through Wednesday
As of 345am EST Monday... Continued cold and dry Tuesday, with highs remaining below normal. Thickness tools in agreement with cool side of MOS guidance envelope, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s despite a mainly clear/sunny sky. Clear and cold once again Tuesday night with early morning lows in the low to mid 20s...to around 30 SE.
Models still show the formation of a cut-off low near the GA/SC coast Tuesday night. However, models remain in good agreement in taking this wave offshore, with cyclogenesis occurring well away from the local area, thus minimizing any sensible weather impacts across the local area.
Behind this wave, modifying surface high builds over the Mid-Atlantic and northeast CONUS on Wednesday. Thicknesses begin to climb, signaling the start of a moderating temp trend. Slightly warmer Wednesday with highs climbing to near normal in the low to mid 40s, under a mainly sunny sky. Lows Wednesday night will inch up a few degrees as well with generally low/mid 20s expected across the region.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
As of 230pm EDT Sunday... Medium range period characterized by dry conditions and gradually moderating temperatures. Rain chances increase by late in the week into the weekend. Forecast period begins with high pressure at the surface and aloft in place over the region with quiet weather persisting through Thu night. Highs in the 50s Thu/Fri. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s Wed/Thu night, mid 30s to mid 40s Friday night.
Our next weather maker will come from a developing upper trough over the central Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, with that system then lifting northeast Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Friday/Friday night. Remaining dry Wednesday night through Friday morning, with rain chances ramping up Friday night and Saturday. Kept Probability of Precipitation in the chance range at this time with typical temporal differences between the deterministic models, though models are reasonably clustered with ensembles for this time range. PWs
Other big story weather-wise will be with quickly moderating temperatures. Pre-frontal warm front will lift across the region over the course of next weekend, with temperatures moderating back toward then above normal Saturday and Sunday (highs in the 50s to low 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s). The attendant surface cold front approaches and crosses through the area sometime late next weekend...but with the Pacific origins of that airmass, expect temperatures to only fall back to around climo normal. In short, outside of the chilly temperatures in the short term, no chances of wintry weather to be found over the next 10 days.
As of 345am EST Monday... High pressure is building in from the NW early this morning, with a cold front now located well S of the region. Strong Cold Air Advection is resulting in a NNW wind of 20-30kt for the Bay/ocean, and 15- 25kt elsewhere. Seas are 5-6ft N to 6-8ft S, with 3-5ft waves in the Bay. The wind is expected to become N near to around 20kt for the ocean/Bay/Sound, 15-20kt for the lower James, and diminish to 10-15kt for the other rivers today. Seas remain 5-6ft N, to 6-8ft S today, with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. High pressure remains NW of the region tonight, and another push of low-level Cold Air Advection should maintain a N wind of 15-20kt. High pressure builds N of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, as low pressure develops well off the Southeast Coast. The wind will become NNE with speeds 10-15kt N to 15-20kt southern Bay, and 20-25kt for the ocean S of Cape Henry. This will likely maintain at least 5-6ft seas S, and could remain 6-8ft Tuesday/Wednesday off the northern Outer Banks. Elsewhere, seas subside to 3-4ft, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay.
SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been extended through 7 am Wednesday for the ocean S of Cape Charles due to high confidence of elevated seas, 7 pm Tuesday for ocean zone 654 and the Sound, 4 pm Tuesday for the lower Bay, 1 pm Tuesday for the middle Bay, 10 am Tuesday for the lower James, 4 am Tuesday for the northern ocean, and remaining 10 am Monday for the remaining rivers.
High pressure builds over the region Wednesday night into Thursday and slowly slides offshore Friday. Low pressure and an associated cold front pass through the area Friday night into Saturday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Tuesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Tuesday for ANZ633-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Tuesday for ANZ650-652.