Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Sat...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Snow Likely In The Afternoon. Light Freezing Spray. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft, Building To 6 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft After Midnight. Snow. Freezing Spray. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Waves 6 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. Snow Likely, Mainly In The Morning. Freezing Spray. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 225am EST Sat Jan 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Watches upgraded to Coastal Flood Warnings for Sunday morning's high tide cycle. Extreme Cold Watch upgraded to a warning in the southeast, converted to Cold Weather Advisory elsewhere. Minor changes to snowfall total forecast, primarily lowering totals on the northwest edge. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong winter storm impacts the region later tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor. 2) Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area. 3) Moderate to locally Major coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle Sunday morning for portions of Hampton Roads and NE NC. Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke. As of 225am EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong winter storm impacts the region later tonight into Sunday. Significant accumulating snowfall, blowing and drifting snow due to strong winds, coastal flooding, and major marine impacts are expected. The highest confidence is across south and southeastern portions of the area. There will be a very sharp gradient in total snowfall amounts, southeast of the US-360 corridor. The forecast is somehow not much clearer since yesterday's package despite the storm being practically on our doorstep. The 00z suite of CAMs have thrown some doubt into the mix by largely showing much drier conditions and therefore much lower snow amounts. For what it's worth, the NAM3k actually came in with no snow for any of our area. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) was not nearly as extreme, but kept measurable snow confined to southside Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina. It is true that there is quite a bit of dry air in place, but the moisture brought in by the surface low and the SW flow ahead of the upper low aloft combined with the strong forcing from the upper low and the FGEN band NW of the surface low, should be enough to overcome that. Do not want to completely disregard these solutions, but the lack of consistency from run to run along with the lack of support from the pattern do not yield much confidence. On the other hand, the global models and ensembles have been more or less consistent for the last several runs and do make sense with the pattern. Therefore, the forecast leans a lot into those solutions for the precipitation timing and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Because of the dry, cold air, the SLR is significantly higher than the 10:1 that the ensembles use, so the snow amounts don't necessarily match. The result was a snowfall total forecast that isn't terribly different than the last couple of packages. The main difference is trimming down totals on the western and northern edge to account for the tight gradient that is expected. Still thinking 8-10" (locally to 12") in the far southeast, 6-8" for the remainder of southside Hampton Roads and interior NE NC, tapering to 4-6" for the middle and lower peninsulas down through Southampton and west to Mecklenburg. Snow totals are expected to quickly taper off northwest from there. By the time you get to the RIC metro, 0.5-1.5" is forecast. Anywhere NW of there would be little to no snow. As for timing, not too many changes there. Still thinking the overrunning moisture will saturate the column early this morning and bring light snow across the south. Snow is largely confined to south of US-460 for most of the morning, then progressing north toward the I-64 corridor during the afternoon. Snow then focuses in on areas closer to the coast overnight. Expecting snow to come to an end from W to E before sunrise Sunday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advys remain unchanged. While confidence in snowfall totals isn't exceptionally high, one thing that has remained consistent and has high confidence is the threat of high winds due to the tight pressure gradient and projected strength of the low. Breezy to windy conditions are expected during the day with gusts around 25-30mph inland and 30- 40mph closer to the coast (highest SE). Winds really get going tonight and into tomorrow morning, though. Winds gusts ramp up to 45 to 60mph close to the coast and 30-45mph inland. Wind headlines are unchanged- a high wind warning for the coastal zones, as well as Hampton/Poquoson and Mathews and a Wind Advisory for portions of the VA Tidewater, interior NE NC, and the lower MD Eastern Shore. This combination of snow and strong winds will result in the potential for whiteout conditions. There was some regards to blizzard headlines, but ultimately the confidence is still not there with regard to snow rates/amounts. Instead, we are messaging whiteout conditions and to avoid travel in the Winter Storm Warning. KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures remain through early next week, keeping localized impacts (i.e icy roads) in place. The coldest air wind chills are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the southeast and a Cold Weather Advisory for the remainder of the area. Today will be exceptionally cold for the local area, with highs only in the low to mid 20s for most (possibly staying in the teens NW). Winds chills will be near zero across the north and 5-10 degrees to the south. While there may be a few hours during the day Saturday where wind chills are above criteria, it was decided to keep the Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the entire day on Saturday due to the anomalous cold. The coldest wind chills are expected Saturday night and Sunday morning. Minimum winds chills will be zero to 5 below. Did decide to go ahead and upgrade the Extreme Cold Watch to a Warning for Hampton Roads (including portions of middle peninsula and Southampton/Surry Counties) and NE NC where the criteria for a warning is zero. It does not look like the rest of the area will quite reach their criteria (5 below) for more than perhaps an hour or so, so went with an extension of the Cold Weather Advisory for these zones. KEY MESSAGE 3...Moderate to locally major tidal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle early Sunday, primarily across southside Hampton Roads and the Atlantic coast of NE NC. Deepening surface low pressure will be pushing farther off the NC and VA coast early Sunday, with strong N winds becoming NNW. This wind direction as the high tide cycle approaches favors the greatest impacts on the Atlantic facing portions of VA Beach and Currituck NC and these areas (as well as Northampton VA for Kiptopeke). Have converted the Coastal Flood Watch to a Warning, with the worst (major) tidal flooding expected at VA Beach/Eastern Currituck, with (low-end) moderate flooding expected at Sewell's Pt/Kiptopeke. Minor flooding is likely into the lower James and up the Atlantic coast to Ocean City, MD. Have issued Coastal Flood Advisories for this. Did not include James City/Surry in the Coastal Flood Advisory given that the high tide here is later Sunday after winds become more NNW and have Jamestown/Yorktown cresting a few tenths below minor flood stage. Well up the Bay, water levels will be much lower due to the strong N winds. Marine As of 225am EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Ramp up Small Craft Advisories are in effect today as conditions begin to deteriorate ahead of the main storm. - Confidence remains high in high-end Gale to Storm conditions this weekend as a strong coastal low develops off the Carolinas. Storm Warnings remain in effect for most of the marine area. - Freezing spray and high seas are expected this weekend as well. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect for the bay, Lower James, and northern two coastal zones for Saturday night into Sunday morning, when accretion rates could reach 2 cm/hour for a few hours. Strong high pressure is centered over the Plains, ridging down into the northern Mid-Atlantic early this morning. Coastal low pressure has begun to develop east of SC/GA. NE winds have increased to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Marine conditions will gradually deteriorate today before rapidly deteriorating tonight as the low is still forecast to deepen to a very impressive 970-980mb as it tracks NNE to a position 100-200 miles east of the VA/NC coast by Sunday morning. NE winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt by this afternoon, and the ramp up SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain as is. Very dangerous marine conditions are expected tonight into Sunday with winds becoming N then NNW and increasing to 30-40 kt north/35-45 kt south, with frequent gusts to storm force (forecast gusts are up to ~55 kt). Peak winds are expected to occur between 1am and noon. While there is a lot of variance in the guidance with respect to snow totals, there still are moderate to high (40-90%...highest south) probabilities for storm force wind gusts over the lower Ches Bay and coastal waters. Therefore, Storm and Gale Warnings remain as is and run from tonight through Sunday afternoon. Will still have to watch for the potential for a few storm force gusts in the upper bay and Lower James River where Gale Warnings remain in effect. However, confidence was not high enough to upgrade to Storm Warnings attm. In addition, light freezing spray will continue through this evening. Then, as winds pick up and Cold Air Advection ensues with temps dropping into the upper teens-20F, moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected across the bay, lower James, and northern coastal waters from tonight-Sunday AM. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters during this time as well. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains unchanged, but have added Freezing Spray Advisories for the rivers and southern three coastal zones from 1 AM-1pm Sunday (same timeframe as the warnings). Seas build to 8-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 10-15+ feet across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters) given the strong winds. High Surf Advisories have been issued for all waters from late today/tonight through Sunday night. Localized beach/dune erosion is also possible. Additionally, given the high probability for snow (potentially heavy), periods of zero visibility remain likely across the southern coastal waters late today into Sunday AM. Winds become NW behind the low and gradually diminish Mon. Sub-advisory winds return Monday evening and continue through the middle of the week. Another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) is possible on Thu/Fri behind another cold front. A stronger cold front may cross the area next weekend, bringing the potential for high-end SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) and/or gales. Climate Record Low Max Temperatures for Sat Jan 31: - RIC: 23 (1948) - ORF: 25 (1936) - SBY: 24 (2019) - ECG: 29 (1965) Daily Record Snowfall for Sat Jan 31 and Sunday Feb 1: - Date: Sat Jan 31 Sunday Feb 1 - RIC: 7.0" (1948) 3.1" (1948) - ORF: 4.0" (1980) 4.0" (1910) - SBY: 4.0" (2010) 4.0" (1962) - ECG: 5.0" (1980) 7.0" (1948) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Winter Weather Advisory from 7am this morning to 4pm EST Sunday for MDZ021>025. Wind Advisory from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Sunday for MDZ022>025. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3am to 11am EST Sunday for MDZ024-025. High Surf Advisory from 1am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for MDZ025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Sunday for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. Extreme Cold Warning from 1am to 10am EST Sunday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for NCZ014>016-031-032. High Wind Warning from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Sunday for NCZ017-102. High Surf Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EST Monday for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Warning from 1am to 11am EST Sunday for NCZ102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST Sunday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>083-085-087-088-509>522. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3am to 11am EST Sunday for VAZ099. High Surf Advisory from 1am Sunday to 4am EST Monday for VAZ099-100. Cold Weather Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for VAZ084-086-089- 090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Sunday for VAZ092-093- 095>098-523>525. Extreme Cold Warning from 1am to 10am EST Sunday for VAZ084- 086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Wind Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for VAZ077-078-084-085-093-096-097-523-524. High Wind Warning from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Sunday for VAZ095-098>100. High Surf Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EST Monday for VAZ098. Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm EST Sunday for VAZ060-061- 067>069-076>078-083-512>520-522. Winter Storm Warning until 1pm EST Sunday for VAZ065-066- 079>082-084>090. High Wind Warning from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for VAZ086-525. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7am to 3pm EST Sunday for VAZ093- 096-524-525. Coastal Flood Warning from 3am to 1pm EST Sunday for VAZ095- 097-098-100. Winter Storm Warning until 7pm EST Sunday for VAZ099-100. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ630>634-656-658. Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Sunday for ANZ630. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1am to 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652. Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ631>634. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 7pm EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ635>637. Freezing Spray Advisory from 1am to 1pm EST Sunday for ANZ635>637-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ638. Gale Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 7pm EST Sunday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 7am this morning to 10pm EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654. Storm Warning from 10pm this evening to 4pm EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Storm Warning from 7pm this evening to 4pm EST Sunday for ANZ656-658. |
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