Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1008am EDT Monday Oct 21 2019
Weak high pressure builds into the area through this evening. A strong cold front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure returns for the midweek period.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 1015am EDT Monday... High pressure over the mts will slowly move east today. Tuff call on just how much if any sun occurs due to plenty of low level moisture from ystrdys hvy rain along with north winds. Latest sat loop and surface obs shows some clrg from the north across the lwr Md eastern shore while the BINOVC that occurred across warning most zones earlier has since filled back in. Thus, a mstly cloudy day ahead with highs in the mid-upper 60s except arnd 70 swarning most zones.
Clouds may briefly start to thin this evening, but will increase all over again overnight ahead of next system currently over the OH/TN River valleys this morning. Remaining dry early, but some weak overrunning will start to push toward the area late. Chance of showers return to the western most zones late. Lows in the 50s to near 60.
Short Term - Tuesday Through Thursday
As of 345am EDT Monday... Another active weather day expected on Tuesday. Deepening low pressure will pivot across the Great lakes region early Tuesday, becoming occluded as it moves into into eastern Canada Tuesday aftn. The attendant surface cold front will be approaching the area to begin the day on Tuesday, and will cross the local area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ample Gulf moisture is forecast to stream NE toward the region ahead of the front, and indeed Probability of Precipitation are in likely to categorical range (60-80%) over the western half of the area or showers/occasional rain through much of Tuesday morning/afternoon w/an additional quarter to half-inch of rainfall expected. However, the main complicating factor is with several weak perturbations out ahead of the front, which could lead to another surface low forming along the approaching boundary over the coastal Carolinas.
CAMs each handle approaching front...and the pre-frontal wave... a little bit differently, but all can agree that theta-e ridge will lift SW to NE glancing the SE coastal plain late Tuesday afternoon, then slipping offshore Tuesday night. This feature will provide a quick influx of moist llevel air (Td climbs into the upper 60s to ~70 ahead of the front along the SE coast Tuesday aftn). Given the resultant marginal surface instability and favorable forcing for ascent, potential does exist for a short- lived round of strong to severe storms across the far SE corner of the local area (mainly NE NC and possibly into the eastern Tidewater area) after 18z/2pm on Tuesday into early Tuesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed this area in a day 2 slight risk, and this will need monitoring over the next day or so. Farther inland, forecast soundings look quite stable, with lifted indices remaining neutral to positive through the day and clouds/showers ongoing through Tuesday afternoon. While a rumble or two of thunder cannot be totally discounted across central VA/northern neck/Ern shore, will keep thunder confined to the SE corner of the local area at this time and will maintain mention in HWO.
Behind the front, rain clears out from west to east late. Lows low 40s nw...mid 40s to mid 50s elsewhere.
Cooler and drier for Wed/Thu, as cool high pressure builds in from the W-SW post-frontal and becomes centered over the local area on Thu. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70 on Wednesday, and in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Chilly early morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Wednesday night.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 345pm EDT Sunday... Surface high slides offshore Thursday night. Model solutions then diverge with respect to the evolution of the trough from Friday through next weekend. The ECMWF/GEM are forecasting an upper low to form near the base of the trough in the southern Plains and very slowly move ewd through the weekend (with our area remaining dry through most of Sat). The GFS has a more progressive solution (w/ rain moving into the area by late Fri before the trough axis crosses the region Sat night). For now, went with a model blend with no higher than chance Probability of Precipitation for the Fri night-Sunday timeframe. Will continue to monitor model trends during the next few days. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Thu/Fri and lows mainly in the 40s inland with low 50s near the coast (some upper 30s possible on Thu with the high near/over the area). Slightly cooler next weekend w/ highs mainly in the 60s (low 70s possible in far SE VA/NE NC).
As of 330am EDT Monday... Low pressure continues to lift NE off Delmarva early this morning and will continue to drift further away from the region throughout the day. High pressure will build in for Monday. Wind directions this morning will be N/NW and eventually become N/NE by later in the day. Wind speeds continue to slowly decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes however remain gusty this morning. Most locations are now below Gale criteria and will allow the Warning to expire at 08Z and will replace with a SCA. While wind gusts will diminish below 20kts later this morning, elevated waves/seas will take much longer to diminish. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the bay will go until 20Z for 3-5ft waves, by later this afternoon waves should diminish to 2-3ft. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the coastal waters will initially go until 06Z Tuesday but may have to be extended further if seas are stubborn to subside. Seas this morning will be 5-9ft, 4-7ft late this evening, and 3-5 ft Tuesday morning.
Cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Gusty NW winds 10-20kts are expected through Wednesday morning in the wake of the frontal passage. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds/seas are possible for a small window Wednesday morning. High pressure then returns for Thursday and early Friday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.