Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw Late In The Morning, Then Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt Early In The Afternoon, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Nw Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers Likely.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
A trough of low pressure will continue to move off the Delmarva through this evening. High pressure builds over the area tonight and slides off the coast early Sunday. Another cold front approaches and crosses the region on Monday bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure returns Monday night into Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Any residual showers across the northern Eastern Shore come to an end later this afternoon/evening as the trough moves further off the coast. High pressure builds across the region tonight and moves offshore by Sunday morning. Temperatures will likely drop off quickly this evening due to clear skies (initially) and very dry air in place. Mid and high level clouds will then increase from the west later tonight and Sunday morning as the next system approaches the region. Lows tonight will dip down to around 40 degrees (perhaps some upper 30s) west of I-95 to the lower to mid 40s further to the east.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... A warm front associated with a system in the middle part of the country will lift north of the area during the day on Sunday. Warm southerly flow is expected, but the day is still expected to remain dry as most of the precipitation will remain north and west of the area. Strong southerly flow on Sunday will allow for a warmer afternoon with highs from around 70/lower 70s north to around 80 degrees across the south. Mild Sunday night with low temps only dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s N, and mid and upper 60s SE.
The previously mentioned low will advance up to New England on Monday. A cold front associated with this system will cross the area during the day on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front, especially Monday afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe on Monday with the greatest threat across the southern third of the forecast area. Precip chances diminishing from NW to SE as we head through Monday evening and overnight. There will likely be a temperature gradient from N to S depending on the front placement Monday afternoon (12z NAM only has mid to upper 60s for the northern half of the forecast area). For now, have highs in the lower 70s across the north to the lower (even some mid 80s) south. Low temps range from the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE.
High pressure builds across the region from the northwest on Tuesday and dry conditions are anticipated. Temperatures Tuesday will be below average with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Dry conditions to start the forecast period on Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region from the NW. During the Thursday and Friday portion of the forecast, still some big differences between ECMWF/Canadian and GFS. Low pressure develops and moves across the southern US Wednesday before moving off the SE coast on Thursday. The ECMWF/Canadian both have high pressure anchored over the local area which keeps the area of low pressure well south/offshore of the local area. This would result in mainly dry weather for our area. Meanwhile the GFS has a trough approaching from the west and the southern low developing and moving up the SE coast while the high is anchored further off the coast. For now, didn't stray too far from the NBM which keeps low-end chance Probability of Precipitation over the local area to account for the continued uncertainty. Dry weather returns later Friday into next weekend. Temperature-wise, expect a slow moderating trend through the extended period with below average temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday (highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and lows in the 40s to lower 50s). Temperatures return closer to normal Friday and Saturday with highs currently forecast in the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Warmer, average to above average temperatures look to potentially return past the extended forecast period.
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Late this afternoon. weak surface high pressure is centered from the southern Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf coast, with low pressure over the central High Plains. Locally, a surface trough crossed the waters earlier today, and winds have become NW and are averaging 15-20 kt. Waves are generally 2-3 ft...with 2-4 ft seas. Will continue SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through this evening/early tonight as NW winds are expected to remain in the 15-20 kt range (w/ gusts to ~25 kt) through 00-06z. Have issued an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the MD coastal waters until 03z/11pm (after collab w/ PHI) as well for a period frequent gusts of ~25 kt. Winds wane tonight as the weak surface high slides builds toward the waters before briefly becoming centered over the area by late tonight. The high then quickly retreats to the SE and well E of the SE CONUS coast by Sunday as the low over the Plains tracks ENE toward the OH Valley. S winds are expected to remain below 10 kt during the first half of Sunday but will increase to 20-25 kt by late Sunday evening as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the low. Winds become SW Sunday night as the low tracks toward southern New England and its associated (trailing) cold front approaches the waters. Another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed late Sunday through at least Monam for the elevated S-SW winds. The cold front crosses the local waters Monday afternoon w/ winds turning to the NNW by late afternoon/evening. Wind speeds are forecast to briefly become sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on Monday. However, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) (for possible elevated N-NNE winds) may linger Monday night into Tue...especially on the Ches Bay. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through Sunday before building to 4-6 ft Sunday night. Waves briefly diminish to ~1 ft Sunday morning before building to 2-4 ft Sunday night.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Period of increased SSW winds is expected Sunday night into early Monday which will likely cause tidal departures (near time of high tide) of around 1 ft above normal (potentially approaching or exceeding minor tidal flood thresholds) on the bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore. At this time, it looks like Bishop's Head stands the best chance of exceeding minor flood thresholds (current forecast has Bishop's Head/Cambridge/Crisfield cresting at 3.3 ft above MLLW...which is around or just above ETSS but a few tenths below CBOFS). Those SW winds may cause a sharp lowering of tide levels (mainly) INVOF the lower Ches Bay (and tidal tributaries) Sunday night into Mon. However, water levels in the Lower Ches Bay are forecast to remain ~0.5 ft above low water thresholds.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ632- 634-650. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.