Marine Weather Net

Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ632 Forecast Issued: 1017 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Overnight...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms Late This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers With Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
745pm EDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Synopsis
An unsettled period begins late this afternoon through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday.

Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages:

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for the northern half of the area through 10 PM.

- Heat Advisories remain in effect for the entire area through 8 pm (other than the MD beaches).

- Showers/storms become fairly widespread this evening into tonight.

This afternoon, high pressure remains anchored well off the SE coast to Bermuda. Meanwhile, a lee trough is in place just to the east of the Blue Ridge and a cold front is well NW of the region over portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

The cold front remains well to the NW of the area into tonight, with storms developing on the lee trough with strong low level destabilization (ML CAPE ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg). Mid level lapse rates are quite weak and with the hot humid airmass, hail will be unlikely. Deep layer shear increases to a modest 20 to 30 knots later this afternoon across the northern half of the area as the mid level flow increases with the approach of the upper trough. Storms will primarily be linear clusters and somewhat disorganized, but a marginal supercell or two cannot be ruled out, along with bowing segments. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts. Storm Prediction Center continues with the northern half of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and a Marginal Risk elsewhere (technically only GEN thunder along the Albemarle sound). In addition to the severe weather threat, there will also be a localized heavy rain threat as moisture pools ahead of the front, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surging to 2.2+", though the best chances for widespread heavy rain into tonight are still expected to be mainly north of the forecast area.

Showers/storms gradually diminish by or shortly after midnight, with lingering showers and embedded storms possible overnight (but with little SVR threat). Lows in the lower 70s NW to the mid-upper 70s SE.

Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Saturday
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages:

- There is a heavy rain threat Thursday across portions of southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina where WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall.

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather roughly along and south of US-460 Thursday.

On Thursday, Probability of Precipitation ramp back up in the mid/late morning as the actual cold front pushes into the region, gradually moving south through the day Thursday, before eventually stalling near the NC/VA border Thursday night. Highest shower/storm chances will be focused across the southern half of the area on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with a Day 2 Slight Risk ERO for far southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina where much of the guidance is forecasting in excess of 2" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. The 12z HREF probability matched means now have a large 50% contour for 3"/3hr centered over SE VA into NE NC tomorrow afternoon/evening, with even a small 70% contour over portions of NE NC. Based on the current trends, it is very possible a Flood Watch will be needed for at least southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina, will let the overnight shift make the final determination. There is a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the forecast area, but expect shower to diminish in coverage and intensity over the north by the late afternoon.

Will also need to watch the severe weather potential on Thursday afternoon with a few of the CAMs being quite aggressive. There will again be plenty of instability tomorrow, with ~2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place across the region despite the clouds. We will also have more effective shear over the area compared to today, with 30- 40 knots possible. The primary hazard tomorrow with any stronger storms will again be damaging wind gusts, with the hail threat remaining limited due to weak mid-level lapse rates. If we can fully destabilize, as some of the CAMs have been showing, there is the potential for a corridor of greater damaging wind potential. For now, Storm Prediction Center has roughly along and south of US-460 in a Marginal Risk for severe weather.

The front pushes just south of the local area Thursday night into Friday, with the highest rain chances confined to the southern areas. With some clearing and drier air/lower dew pts, lows Thu night drop into the low-mid 60s NW, with lower 70s SE (where its stays humid with more clouds). Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high temperatures mainly in the low-mid 80s (more comfortable N and central where dew pts will be in the 60s).

The upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out later Friday while the area of high pressure off the Southeast coast begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The front is forecast to lift back north into the southeastern portion of the area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain chances Friday night will be across northeast North Carolina in the vicinity of the boundary, then chances spread back north on Saturday as the front shifts. The higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be south of the I-64 corridor.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages:

- Daily rain chances persist as the front lifts back north and stalls over the southeastern portion of the area.

- Temperatures look to stay near normal.

A positively tilted trough will start to dip down into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday allowing our flow to become more southwesterly. The stalled front won't move very much, but it does become a bit more diffuse on Sunday so generally should see rain chances focus in the aftn/evening rather than all day. Variable cloudy and a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F. Remaining a bit unsettled into early next week, with the southern and western portions of the area having the best chance for rain/storms. After a brief, partial break from the humidity (especially up north), 70+ degree dewpoints will stream back into the area for this forecast period making it feel humid once again. The somewhat good news is that temperatures aren't expected to be nearly as hot during the extended period as they have been, with high temperatures Mon-Tuesday forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s to near 90F, which is right around or even slightly below normal for this time of year.

Marine
As of 300pm EDT Wednesday... Key Messages:

- Small craft advisories in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters this evening into early tonight. A severe thunderstorm watch is also in effect for the upper bay and northern coastal waters through 10 PM.

- Additional showers and storms expected Thursday.

- Calmer marine conditions return Friday through the weekend.

Bermuda high pressure is situated well offshore this afternoon, leading to SW flow across all of the waters. A cold front is also located well to our NW, extending from the northern Great Lakes into the Mid MS River Valley. Winds are averaging around 15 kt, though a few sites are in the 15-20 kt range. With a tightening pressure gradient and convection approaching from the W, winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 kt areawide this evening into tonight, with gusts to ~25 kt. This will also push seas in the northern waters to 4-5 ft (6 ft possible out near 20 nm). Have continued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for the ocean N of Cape Charles and introduced new SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Chesapeake Bay starting at 4pm this afternoon. While the duration of these winds are uncertain, local wind probabilities are >50% for 18 kt sustained winds and 25 kt gusts for most of the central/upper bay. Waves of 2-3 ft are also expected. For now, the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) goes through 10 PM over the bay and through most of tonight for the northern coastal waters. S of Cape Charles, seas look to stay below 5 ft and wind gusts should remain just shy of 25 kt; thus, continue to hold off on SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) here. Later this evening, convection may complicate these prevailing winds and there is the potential for strong-severe wind gusts of 40-50+ kts. A severe thunderstorm watch is also in effect for the upper bay zone (ANZ630) through 10 PM. Winds subside around sunrise Thursday as the gradient slackens and the cold front begins to enter our area. The front then briefly stalls over the waters Thu afternoon, allowing winds to begin rather variable. This front will also serve as a focus for widespread showers and storms, especially across the the southern bay and coastal waters. Strong to severe wind gusts are again a possibility, in addition to heavy rain and frequent lightning. ~10 kt of E/NE flow is expected Friday, shifting to the SE Saturday. Seas and waves of 2-3 ft and 1-2 ft are expected beyond Thursday, respectively.

With the southerly flow and 3-4 ft nearshore waves, the rip risk remains moderate for the northern beaches today and at least for the first half of the day Thursday. A low risk is forecast through today and Thursday across southern beaches. Note that continued S/SW flow may exacerbate upwelling conditions, leading to much cooler-than- expected water temperatures (low-mid 60s) in the surf zone.

Climate
A record high min temperature was tied yesterday/Tuesday 7/16 at SBY. Records are listed below for today/Wednesday 7/17. Record highs are unlikely and although record high mins may be challenged, showers and storms late in the day/tonight may lead to calendar date mins lower than what is observed this morning.

- Record Highs:

- Site: Wednesday 7/17

- RIC: 100 (1980) - ORF: 100 (1887) - SBY: 99 (2012) - ECG: 99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

- Site: Wednesday 7/17

- RIC: 76 (2005) - ORF: 80 (2021) - SBY: 80 (1983) - ECG: 80 (2019)

- Highest 1-hr Heat Index Value on record (P.O.R. 1948-2024):

- RIC: 117 (7/17/1980) - ORF: 118 (8/18/2017) - SBY: 122 (7/15/1995) - ECG: 119 (7/5/1999)

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ654.