Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Early In The Afternoon. Rain And Snow Likely Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Snow Likely. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Fri...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot Late.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
A frontal boundary will remain stalled near the gulf coast tonight. Low pressure tracks northeast along this boundary Thursday and Thursday night then moves offshore Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 315pm EST Wednesday... Widespread mid/high clouds have hung this afternoon while ISOLD/SCT RA has remained slow to dissipate/settle completely S of the FA (in NE NC). Clearing or at least thinning of the clouds expected over much of the local area through early tonight...w/ potential exception far S and SE. Clouds begin to come back over the FA from the WSW late. N winds today have ushered in much drier air and expecting a dry/chilly night w/ lows from the m-u20s N to the m30s far SE.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Saturday
As of 320pm EST Wednesday... Clouds will continue to lower/thicken Thu morning. Pcpn is expected to break out initially over S and SW areas then spread ENE through the afternoon. "Warm" near sfc/boundary conditions make ptype forecast tricky for the afternoon hours. Will have RA or RA mixed w/ SN w/ only very light accums through 20-22Z/20. Pcpn rates/intensity expected to increase (by) early Thu evening...esp across (far) southern and SE VA into NE NC and that will continue until after midnight Thu night (as lo pressure begins to intensify off the SE CONUS coast. RA become SN over almost all of the area during the evening then continues into the overnight hours. NAO+ and strong near zonal flow will lead to a quick E storm movement. NAM (by far) has the greatest 850-700mb frontogenesis and thus much higher pcpn/SN accum potential (over much of the FA). Have tried to hone in farther w/ the HREF/HRRR and GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) which show the highest potential for 3"+ SN accums over SE VA/NE NC. Thus a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for that area. Lighter SN and accums expected outside of the watch. A bit early for advisories and the next shift can further pinpoint accums based on later guidance this evening/overnight. Additionally...N winds will become gusty to 25-35 mph...esp toward the coast in SE VA-NE NC after midnight (Thu night). Highs Thu mainly 40-45F. Lows Thu night 20-25F inland to the u20s- around 30F at the coast.
Hi pressure and clearing out for Fri...though cold w/ highs in the u30s-l40s. Remaining breezy at the coast. After a chilly night Fri night w/ the center of surface hi pressure arriving late...Sat will be dry w/ more seasonable conditions. Lows Fri night from the l-m20s inland to the u20s-around 30F at the coast. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 315pm EDT Wednesday... Medium range period characterized by moderating temperatures with rain chances returning to the forecast Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Surface high slides offshore to begin the period Sunday night, with resultant developing low-level winds veering around to the S- SW. This will bring milder temperatures for early next week, as well as a renewed influx of Gulf moisture in the form of scattered to numerous showers mainly Monday through Monday evening.
Warm front will lift north across the area on Monday, with the trailing cold front approaching from the north Monday night into Tuesday. Cool high pressure builds into the area from the Tennessee Valley later Tue/Tuesday night. Rain chances return by the end of the period, with parent upper trough pivoting across the eastern third of the CONUS.
Overall temperatures will remain at or above normal for the medium range. Highs mainly in the 50s to mid 60s, with early morning lows mainly in the 30s to mid 40s.
As of 315pm EST Wednesday... Northerly winds this afternoon 10-15 kts with 15-20 kts over the southern coastal waters. Waves in the bay are running 2-3 ft and seas 3-4 ft except for the southern coastal waters (ANZ658) where seas are 4-6 ft. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continues through the evening for that zone.
On Thursday low pressure moves along a boundary and offshore by the evening. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure will be over the center of the country. N/NE winds will intensify beginning in the afternoon over Currituck sound and the southern coastal waters, and the rest of the area waters by late Thursday into Friday. Expect winds by Friday morning 20-25 kts with gusts around 30 kts. Latest wind probs for Duck Buoy show 80-90% of Gale force late Thursday into Friday, so a Gale Watch was issued for the southern most coastal zone. The rest of the area waters should remain within SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind criteria. After coordinating with surrounding offices, Currituck sound SCA (Small Craft Advisory) starts at 18Z Thursday, 00Z for the lower bay and adjacent coastal waters, and 03Z for the upper bay, remaining coastal waters, and the lower James.
Winds will subside late Friday evening into early Saturday as the storm system pulls away from the area and high pressure shifts over to the OH valley. SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) will likely remain through Saturday for the coastal waters for elevated seas.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for VAZ092-093-095>098-524-525.
Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Thursday to 1pm EST Friday for ANZ630-631-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Thursday to 1pm EST Friday for ANZ632-634-656. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for ANZ658. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 1pm EST Friday for ANZ633.