Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning.
|Wed...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
|Wed Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Gusts To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers In The Evening.
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
|Fri...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot.
|Fri Night...Se Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.
|Sat...E Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657pm EST Tuesday Feb 27 2024
A low pressure system begins to approach from the west tonight resulting in scattered showers across the area. A cold front then crosses the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing scattered to numerous showers. Dry weather prevails Thursday into Friday, as high pressure returns with unsettled weather possible this weekend into early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
As of 655pm EST Tuesday... Scattered showers continue over the area tonight. Showers taper off from SW to NE later tonight. Temps as of 655pm ranged from the mid 50s to lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Given cloud cover overnight and being in the WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) regime of the next storm system, expect lows to remain mild in the mid-upper 50s. SSW winds will remain breezy to windy with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible as well.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Friday
As of 310pm EST Tuesday... Low pressure deepens as it quickly lifts NE from the northern Great Lakes into Quebec Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a trailing cold front pushing through the area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Ahead of the cold front, SW winds increase farther with gusts 30-40 mph, and potentially as high as 45 mph closer to the coast. The SW winds will also allow for temps to rise into the lower to mid 70s for much of the FA (except 60s to around 70 across the Eastern Shore and across the NW). Parts of SE VA/NE NC may reach the upper 70s to near 80 if cloud cover is less than currently forecast. Latest CAMs depict a quick line of gusty showers moving through the region Wednesday afternoon into Wed evening. Given the strong winds aloft, strong wind gusts are possible with the cold front (esply if convection can be deep enough to tap into the stronger winds above the surface). It should be noted however that instability will likely be lacking across our area, with models showing very little in the way of MLCAPE (~100 J/kg or less). Thus severe weather, or even thunderstorms, are not expected at this time. Around 0.25" to 0.60" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is forecast with the showers Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Any showers end quickly or push out to sea late Wednesday night with much drier air moving in quickly behind the front, as high pressure builds in. Temps will drop back into the upper 20s to upper 30s around sunrise Thu morning. Sunny and cooler conditions expected for Thu with high pressure building right over the region, with highs ranging from the mid 40s NE, to the lower 50s inland/Piedmont. Clear or mostly clear Thu night with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Fri will start out at least partly sunny, then clouds will thicken and lower during the day, as high pressure slides out to sea and moisture and energy starts to approach from the SSW. An isolated shower may move into wrn/SW counties by late in the day. Highs in the mid 50s to near 60.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
As of 330pm EST Tuesday... A coastal low/coastal trough will bring a good chance for more rain showers Fri evening through most of Sat. Lows Fri night will range through the 40s, with highs on Sat in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Generally just slight chance Probability of Precipitation for late Sat night through Monday night, due to model differences. Probability of Precipitation may increase to chance by late Tue, due to another weak coastal low and a front trying to approach from the west. Mild temps expected for Sunday through Tue, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
As of 245pm EST Tuesday... Afternoon analysis shows high pressure offshore of the east coast with an area of low pressure moving eastward into the Great Lakes region. The local area is sandwiched in between with a tightening pressure gradient as the weather system approaches from the west. Currently, southwest winds have increased as expected, or even a bit more than expected, with the lower Bay and lower James river seeing 20-25kt winds with gusts to 30-35kt. These speeds should start to come down a bit in the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, south/southwest winds are 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters, Bay, and lower James right now, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) kicking in for the upper rivers and Currituck Sound at 7pm/00z. As of this writing, seas are 2-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Rain showers are moving into the local waters as well, and an isolated higher gusts in these showers can't be ruled out.
South/southwesterly winds will continue to increase overnight. There may be brief lull in wind gusts across the lower Bay/lower James after sunset, but expect the winds to increase once again shortly after. Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters north of the Cape Charles Light starting at 1am/06z, with the southern coastal waters joining in on the Gale Warning at 10am/15z (went ahead and upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning) for gusts upwards of 35-40kt. The upper rivers and Currituck Sound may see some stronger gusts due to stronger mixing over the land areas, but for now, kept them in a high-end Small Craft Advisory for this event. There will be a line of rain showers that pushes in from the west ahead/along the cold front Wednesday afternoon. There could easily be some localized higher gusts within these more potent rain showers. As the front passes through, winds will abrupartly shift out of the northwest late Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours of Thursday. This looks to be when some of the stronger winds of this event will occur. The Bay and Lower James have been upgraded to a Gale Warning beginning 7pm Wednesday/00z for the potential of northwesterly wind gusts upwards of 35-40kt. During this time frame, seas will build to 8-10ft across the northern coastal waters with 11ft seas beyond 20nm, and 5-7ft across the south. Waves in the Bay will increase to 3-4ft.
The front will move offshore and northwesterly winds will start to gradually subside after sunrise Thursday. Speeds should return to 10- 15kt by Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds in. Thus, Gale headlines will end at 7am/12z Thursday. There may be a need for a short SCA (Small Craft Advisory) once the Gale conditions end, but will leave that to be monitored by a later forecast package. Seas will also subside to 2- 4ft later Thursday with waves in the Bay around 2ft. Flow will become southeasterly Friday ahead of the next system passing through. Rain chances return later Friday into Saturday, though winds and waves look to remain more benign this time.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...Wind Advisory from 10am Wednesday to 1am EST Thursday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Wind Advisory from 10am Wednesday to 1am EST Thursday for VAZ087>090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638. Gale Warning from 7pm Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652- 654. Gale Warning from 1am Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658. Gale Warning from 10am Wednesday to 7am EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.