Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Se Winds 5 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Patchy Fog Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late In The Morning, Then Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft Late. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Until Late Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
956pm EDT Wednesday April 8 2020
A strong cold front crosses the region Thursday morning. Gusty winds develop Thursday afternoon and continue through Friday. High pressure moves off the coast Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the west on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7am THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 950pm EDT Wednesday... All the ealier convection has either moved se or dissipated this eve with mstly clr to pt cloudy skies across the region. Some patchy fog is possible aftr midnite along the coast. Lows in the 50s.
Will be watching the next line of convection towards sunrise assctd with the strong cold frontal passage Thurs morning. High res data showing convection entering the warning most zones (FVX- LKU) shortly after 10Z, then towards RIC by 12Z. Thus, ramped back up Probability of Precipitation west of the I95 corridor late.
.SHORT TERM /7am THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345pm EDT Wednesday... Expect a lull in showers and storms overnight ahead of the next systems. The next front and associated band of showers and potentially some thunderstorms is forecast by the guidance to be moving east of the mountains by 12z Thu. This is faster than previous runs and guidance is in good agreement with the faster timing. How well the morning band of showers and storms holds together as it moves across Central VA is in question with some guidance such as the ARW and NMM weakening the system whereas the HREF and NAM nest maintain a well established line from the piedmont across central VA. Timing looks to be Thu morning from 11z- 15z. Have trended probability of precipitation towards a the wetter solutions for now. Conditions dry out quickly late Thu morning behind the showers and storms giving way to partly cloudy skies and high in the low mid 70s most locations with around 80 in the southeast, lower 70s MD Eastern Shore.
Windy and drier Thursday afternoon and especially Friday with gusty wind both afternoons. Cooler Friday with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60. Min RHs will be around 25 percent and depending on fuel moisture there could be some fire weather concerns for Friday afternoon. The coldest temps will be Saturday morning as lows drop into the mid 30s with upper 30s near the coast. Some inland areas could drop into the lower 30s right near freezing. Temps should rebound quickly into the lower 60s Saturday with mid to upper 50s along the Eastern Shore.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 355pm EDT Wednesday... High pressure moves offshore Saturday night with strengthening south/southeast flow. A deep trough in the southern stream jet over Texas will partially phase with a northern stream trough, leading to rapid deepening of surface low pressure across the central Plains. Lows Saturday night will fall into the low and mid 40s. Deep southerly flow continues on Sunday with increasing low level moisture. Some timing differences remain regarding exactly when precipitation will move into the region with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GEM being somewhat slower to move the system to the east. For now, will show increasing Probability of Precipitation from west to east on Sunday afternoon with the bulk of the precipitation coming Sunday night into early Monday afternoon. Given the disagreement between models, will cap PoPs at 70% through this period though these numbers will certainly be raised in subsequent forecasts. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s with mostly cloudy skies. Lows Sunday night will be quite warm, lows in the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite the less than ideal overnight timing of the greatest rainfall chances, the kinematics with this system are forecast to be quite impressive and any instability that can materialize will set the stage for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the region. Will continue to monitor this potential in subsequent forecasts as the strength and timing of surface features becomes more clear. It appears that the surface cold front will lag the behind the moisture with temps on Monday warming considerably into the upper 70s and perhaps low 80s prior to the front passing through.
For the remainder of the extended forecast, temps cool a bit behind the front with lows Monday night in the upper 40s and low to mid 50s. Tuesday should be mostly dry as low pressure lifts well away from the region into Canada. However, southwesterly flow aloft and weak low pressure at the surface will keep a chance for showers in the forecast into midweek.
As of 440pm EDT Wednesday... A weak cold front will drop south of the area later this evening then diminish tonight. Late this afternoon. winds were NW or W 5-15 kt over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft.
On Thu, winds will be on the increase from the SW by late morning as a strong, fast-moving cold front approaches the waters by midday and sweeps across the waters Thu afternoon. SW-W winds in advance of the front could reach 15-20 kt, but once the front moves through, a quick switch to the NW is expected with winds increasing to 15-25 kt. At this point, am expecting SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level winds for the Rivers, Ches Bay, Currituck Sound and coastal waters north of Parramore Island for Thu afternoon and evening. A few gusts of up to 30 kt are certainly possible Thu afternoon north of Parramore Island. There will then be a brief lull in winds late Thu evening into early Fri morning before a stronger surge of W-NW winds occurs Fri into Fri night. Have issued a Gale Watch for the northern 2 coastal zones (north of Parramore) for Fri into Fri night, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected everywhere otherwise lasting into Fri night. Have capped seas to around 5 ft north with the offshore flow and 3-4 ft south. Waves in the Bay will reach 3-4 ft Fri into Fri night.
High pressure slowly builds back into and over the region for later Fri night into Sat afternoon. then slides off the coast Sat evening into early Sunday morning. This will allow the winds to relax and seas to calm over the weekend before another system impacts the region late Sunday into Mon.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 440pm EDT Wednesday... Have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the bayside portion of Lower MD, and the VA eastern shore later this evening into Thu morning, due to higher than normal astronomical tides due to the current full moon phase. Also have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the remainder of the tidal gages/counties along the western side of the Ches Bay, and Hampton Roads.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100.
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 1am EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 4am EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Thursday to 1am EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4am Friday to 1am EDT Saturday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 7am Friday to 1am EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 6am EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.