Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With Tstms Likely Until Early Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms Late. |
| Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 651am EDT Wednesday July 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Flood Watch was expanded to include southside Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina this morning through Thursday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning. 2) The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today into Thursday. As of 300am EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms continue across early this morning from the Middle Peninsula over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. Flash flooding is likely to continue over portions of the Eastern Shore this morning. Early this morning, a slow moving cold front is located NW of the local area. Moisture continues to pool ahead of this front, with PWs over the local area ranging from 2.0 to 2.4" this morning. Very heavy rainfall continues across portions of the Middle Peninsula and over to the VA/MD Eastern Shore. A swath of 2-4"+ has fallen across the southern MD Eastern Shore into the the VA Eastern Shore with numerous Flash Flood Warnings remaining in effect at this hour. Shower and storms will gradually spread south and reinvigorate later this morning into this afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue today and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding will increase later today into Thursday. The severe threat likely continues today, but with the higher probabilities shifted to the south and east compared to what we saw yesterday, ahead of the aforementioned southward-moving cold front. The flow aloft today is forecast to remain rather strong (40-50kt at 500mb). Storm Prediction Center has the Slight Risk outlined for our entire CWA (County Warning Area) (level 2/5). Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any stronger storms, though an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Attention then turns to the heavy rain/significant flash flooding threat. Despite the ongoing drought conditions, today into tonight is showing an increasingly confident signal for flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. WPC has introduced a Moderate Risk ERO for today across much of Hampton Roads down into northern portions of NC. Much of the remainder of the area is in a Slight Risk ERO today. Decent flow aloft should keep individual cells moving but training storms on top of the rainfall received yesterday and overnight early this morning will likely cause scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. The axis of heavier showers and storms shifts further to the SE on Thursday as the slow moving front gradually sinks south. WPC has a Day 2 Moderate ERO across northeast NC up to roughly the VA border and a Slight ERO across southeast VA. A Flood Watch has been introduced for SE VA and NE NC based on the latest data. The Flood Watch currently across the remainder of the area will likely need to be extended into Thursday for portions of the watch area. All total, the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecast through Thursday has generally 3-6", with locally higher amounts across southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina. Marine As of 215am EDT Wednesday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters until this afternoon. - Strong thunderstorms are possible today through tomorrow with gusty winds and reduced visibility from heavy rain likely Latest observations show that gusty SW winds are continuing early this morning ahead of a cold front. Winds are generally 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the bay, lower James, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters. Occasional gusts up to 34kt have been observed as well. Thunderstorms across northern waters have prompted multiple SMWs for stronger gusts around 40kt. Small Craft Advisories are of course still in effect for all of the nearshore waters. No changes have been made to these advisories since yesterday. Windy conditions continue through the morning, then diminish this afternoon and evening. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be in effect through 1pm Wednesday for the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and tidal rivers and 6pm for the coastal waters. A surge of northerly winds is possible late tonight into early Thurs with gusts to 20 kt in the Ches. Bay, which could need another SCA. Lighter NE winds are likely Thurs afternoon and into the weekend. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from today through Thurs morning. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic winds. The highest risk is today through overnight across the VA and MD waters. Additional strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday into Thurs. Seas of 4-5 ft for southern nearshore waters and 5-6 ft for the northern nearshore waters are forecast this morning (6-7 ft offshore). Waves up to 4 ft expected in the bay. 5+ ft seas may linger into the evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Flood Watch until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ022>025. NC...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ097-098-529>531. Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-065>069- 076>090-092-099-100-509>520-522>525-528. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>637-639. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. |
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