Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Late Evening And Overnight. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 129pm EDT Monday Oct 13 2025 Synopsis Low pressure will linger off the DelMarVa coast through tonight, before pulling away Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Dry and seasonable weather prevails into Wednesday, with cooler temperatures to end the work week. A warming trend is expected by the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 930am EDT Monday... Key Message: - Lingering low pressure offshore leads to mostly cloudy and cool conditions today. Chances for light rain or drizzle remain on the Eastern Shore. Morning analysis shows a bifurcated area of low pressure just offshore, with one center (~1005 mb) off the DelMarVa coast and the other center (~1005 mb) very near Cape Fear, NC. The lower levels are nearly saturated just above the surface, leading to widespread cloudiness and pockets of light rain or drizzle. This is most focused on the lower MD Eastern Shore...on the backside of that low. Otherwise, it remains breezy (especially at the coast) with temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 F. The surface low to our south will slide eastward and offshore as the associated upper low over the Mid-Atlantic pivots eastward. The other low will slowly meander just offshore through the day and it should eventually slide southward along our coast late tonight into Tuesday. This evolution will favor rather dreary conditions for the rest of the day and tonight as the low-level flow remains out of the N, with continued pushes of low/mid-level moisture. Some peaks of sunshine could occur in the Piedmont late this afternoon, but expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies for our area. High temperatures range from the mid-upper 60s. Lastly, the tighter pressure gradient near the coast should keep the winds on the breezy side, especially this morning into the early afternoon. As that (weak) low moves southward along the coast tonight, expect one more round of light rain showers or drizzle, especially for N/NE portions of the forecast area. Forecast overnight lows are in the 50s. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night As of 300am EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Drier Tuesday with gradually clearing skies. - Very pleasant, sunny, and dry Wednesday. The upper low and associated surface lows finally get kicked away on Tuesday. Some lingering drizzle or light rain can't be ruled out near the coast in the morning, but otherwise skies will gradually clear from W to E through the day. Highs range from the upper 60s E to lower 70s in the Piedmont. Lows Thursday night in the 50s, coolest W/NW. On Wednesday, surface high pressure centered near Lake Superior will build down toward the local area. Aloft, a large ridge remains over the central CONUS with troughing extending from eastern Canada southward into New England. This setup will favor milder conditions for the area (highs in the lower- mid 70s) under a sunny sky. Chilly Wednesday night and dropping into the 40s. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday As of 300am EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Cooler, but remaining dry, Thursday and Friday. A warming trend begins during the weekend. - Potential for frost away from the coast Thursday night. A shortwave trough dives southward to our NE late Wednesday night into Thursday, with a significant push of cold and dry advection expected. High pressure at the surface will also translate eastward and become centered in the eastern Great Lakes vicinity. Therefore, much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday with daytime highs only in the lower-mid 60s (feeling very much like Fall!). The coolest night of the forecast period is anticipated Thursday night into Friday morning with some frost potential apparent. The blended guidance is already outputting temps in the upper 30s for most areas inland and with high pressure centering very near the area and clear skies, these values are probably too high. In this respect, would not be surprised if we saw widespread readings in the mid 30s. Closer to the coast, temps should remain in the lower 40s. Friday night looks chilly again, but not as cool as the prior night, with lows in the lower-mid 40s. A warming trend likely begins by the weekend as heigheights aloft build and a ridge axis moves overhead. Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday range through the 70s, with Sunday likely the warmer day of the two. An upper trough and cold front will also be approaching the area from the NW, potentially bringing our next shot at precipitation by later Sunday into next Monday. However, confidence is not very high in the timing department being this is still ~7 days out. Marine As of 400am EDT Monday.. Key Messages: - Low-end Gales linger over the Bay and VA-MD Ocean waters early this morning, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) elsewhere. - Winds remain elevated through Thursday, but after this morning should primarily be sub-Gale, with a few brief periods of marginal gusts to ~35 kt Tuesday morning and again Wednesday night. Secondary low pressure (~1002 mb) is situated just off the Delmarva coast, and is the primary feature now affecting the local waters (the other surface low continues to slowly weaken just off the southern NC/SC coast). The pressure gradient, along with some better mixing has led to strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low-end Gales lingering early this morning. Have Gale Warnings for a few more hrs on the Ocean N of the VA-NC border, and for the Bay, with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) elsewhere. Expect to be able to replace the Gales with SCAs over the next few hrs as winds drop off a few more knots. Seas are primarily 12-15ft N, and 8-12 ft S, with waves in the Ches. Bay are mainly 4- 6ft, with 6-8 ft in the mouth of the Bay. Latest trends suggest the surface low odd the Delmarva retrogrades to the NW later today, which will lower the winds considerably across the northern Ocean (probably to only 10-15 kt this aftn/early evening). Elsewhere, on the west side of the low, the gradient remains tighter, so NNW winds will average 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas will be slow to subside, remaining at least 6-10 ft into midweek. There are two periods where marginal Gales may develop for a few hrs- the first being Tuesday morning in the Bay and Ocean, as the Delmarva low pivots back SE with marginally cooler/drier air moving across the waters, and again late Wed/Wednesday night, as high pressure builds in from the NW, bringing cool, dry air and pressure rises over the relative warmth of the local waters. For now, the probs for 34kt+ gusts are fairly low, except farther offshore on the Ocean so anticipate going w/ SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through Wednesday morning. Conditions finally improve more significantly towards the end of the week, as sfc high pressure is forecast to settle over the area. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 700am EDT Monday.. Currently seeing a strong Ebb tide/current occurring at the mouth of the Ches Bay. This is leading to falling tidal anomalies, especially over the mid/upper Bay gauges. Based on observations and trends, have extended the Coastal Flood Warning from VA Beach and pts northward on the VA eastern shore and Worcester MD through this evening to cover the next high tide where many areas will reach Moderate flood levels. Elsewhere, have replaced all Coastal Flood Warnings w/ Advisories to cover the aftn/early evening high tide cycle since water levels are only expected to be at minor flood thresholds. As usual, the ETSS/P-ETSS guidance is doing a poor job at handling the currents at the mouth of the Bay (and is over-forecasting water levels farther up the Bay and tidal rivers). Some additional nuisance to minor flooding, mainly in the lower Bay and perhaps portions of the James river will be possible again on Tuesday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ024- 025. High Surf Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...High Surf Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for NCZ102. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Warning until 6pm EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. High Surf Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for VAZ098>100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for VAZ075>078-521-522. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ082- 089-090-093-095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for VAZ083>086-518-520. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>634- 638-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. |
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