Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 Kt In The Late Evening And Overnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Late In The Evening. Rain After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Late. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154pm EST Sunday Nov 2 2025 Synopsis High pressure moves off the coast this evening. A weak coastal low develops off the Southeast coast this evening before moving northeast offshore Monday. This will likely bring light to moderate rain across southeastern portions of the area tonight into early Monday. Dry conditions return Monday night through Friday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 150pm EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Weak coastal low pressure brings increasing clouds and rain back to the area tonight. Afternoon analysis shows high pressure translating offshore ahead of a closed upper low over TN. The upper disturbance will foster weak cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast after sunset. Near normal temperatures this afternoon with most areas in the mid 60s. Clouds will continue to thicken from west to east this evening with increasing Probability of Precipitation spreading northward tonight. The bulk of the rainfall will be focused across the SE with lesser amounts to the W and NW. Probability of Precipitation increase to likely/categorical after midnight in the SE with chance Probability of Precipitation NW. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ranges from a few hundredths-0.1" for Richmond and points N and W with 0.5-0.75" for the SE third of the area. Localized totals over 1" are possible, especially for areas near the Albemarle Sound in NC. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s in the Piedmont to the mid and upper 50s from Hampton Roads Metro southward into coastal NC. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150pm EST Sunday... Key Message: - Showers linger near the coast Monday morning, moving offshore during the afternoon with clearing skies late. - High pressure builds into the region from the west on Tuesday with dry and cool conditions. Showers continue across the eastern half of the area through mid morning before tapering off in the afternoon. The aforementioned upper low drops SSE off the Carolina coast by Monday afternoon with drier air moving into the region. Clouds clear from west to east by the mid to late afternoon with highs mainly in the low 60s. Cool and dry Monday night with low temps mostly in the low/mid 40s but a few upper 30s are likely in the typically cooler rural spots NW of Richmond. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s (coolest near the coast and slightly warmer inland). Forecast soundings show plentiful dry air aloft so expect dew points to mix out into the upper 20s to low 30s by the afternoon, resulting in RH values 25-35%. Winds will decrease as high pressure builds in but there could be enough of a breeze for some fire weather concerns during the afternoon, especially in the Piedmont where rainfall from tonight's system is meager. Chilly Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead with clear skies and light winds. Went a few degrees below blended guidance which results in lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. High pressure moves offshore on Wednesday ahead of a dry front associated with low pressure near the Great Lakes. The gradient will steepen by Wednesday afternoon with SW winds becoming gusty. Temps warm above average with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dew points/RH are not expected to be as low as Tuesday afternoon but with the gusty winds, fire weather could again be a concern. The front crosses the area Wednesday night with low temps in the mid 40s to low 50s. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday As of 150pm EST Sunday... Key Message: - High pressure returns Thursday with near normal temperatures. - Upper trough and cold front approach the region Friday with limited moisture. Sunny, cooler, and dry conditions are expected on Thursday. High temps range from around 60 degrees for the Eastern Shore with mid 60s possible to the south and west. Overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure drifts offshore on Friday with breezy southerly flow developing ahead of the next front approaching from the west. Guidance does not show much deep moisture with this front so have mainly chance and slight chance Probability of Precipitation across the north Friday night. Warmer on Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A bit cooler on Sunday as another front approaches the region with limited moisture. Marine As of 150pm EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Benign boating conditions continue through this evening. - Low pressure develops off the Carolina coast tonight through Tuesday morning, bringing another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) across the local waters Monday through Tuesday. Benign marine conditions prevail this afternoon as high pressure is just offshore of the waters. Winds are E at 5-10 kt with 1-2 ft seas/waves. Winds become NE at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt by around midnight as low pressure begins to develop off the Carolina coast. The low quickly tracks NNE to a position offshore of the VA coast by midday. The tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low will allow winds turn to the N and increase to ~20 kt with gusts of 25 kt by Mondayam across the Lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters by around sunrise. With local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds now 50-80%, have issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) starting at 11z/6 AM for the lower bay, coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and Currituck Sound. Given that Cold Air Advection will initially be very weak, northerly winds should remain a couple knots below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds elsewhere through the day on Mon. A secondary (stronger) push of Cold Air Advection arrives from the NW Monday evening with Cold Air Advection continuing Monday night- Tuesday AM. Solid/strong SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely across the entire bay, ocean, and Lower James during this time with NW winds averaging around 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt (slightly less on the Lower James). SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) begin at 7pm Monday for the remainder of the marine zones (with the exception of the upper rivers) and are in effect until 18z/1pm Tuesday. Wind probs for gale force gusts are low, but non-zero (10- 25%) Monday night-early Tuesday AM. So, while there will likely be a few gusts in excess of 35 kt at elevated sites, there is not enough confidence in frequent 34+ kt gusts to issue a Gale Watch attm. Winds temporarily diminish Tuesday night-early Wednesday as high pressure briefly settles overhead, but another round of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) is likely from late Wed-Thu both ahead of and behind a cold front (with SW winds becoming NW). Seas build to 3-5 ft (highest S) by Mondayam before building to 5-6 ft in all nearshore waters by Monday night. Waves on the Ches Bay build to ~4 ft by Monday night. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.As of 145pm EST Sunday... Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Monday to 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ630-631-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 1pm EST Tuesday for ANZ632>634-656-658. |
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