Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 315pm EDT Tuesday May 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for tonight through tomorrow night for the Bay and Rivers. - Rain amounts have continued to trend down, especially for SE VA/NE NC. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail tonight. 2) Another cold front brings additional chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late Wednesday. 3) Warming up to above average temps for the weekend into early next week. As of 315pm EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail tonight. High pressure is situated along the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon, leading to mostly clear skies and generally light winds. Temperatures across the area have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F, with dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s making for quite a comfortable afternoon. The high will shift offshore tonight as a cold front approaches the area, shifting winds to the south and leading to a tightening gradient and increasing winds. There will be a short period of time just after sunset where winds will be light with clear skies, so a few hours of radiational cooling are possible. Some inland areas will likely drop into the mid to upper 40s during this timeframe, then may warm up a few degrees once winds start to increase later tonight. Otherwise, low temperatures will be in the lower 50s across the area. KEY MESSAGE 2....Another cold front brings additional chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder late Wednesday. The next best chance at rainfall across the area will be late Wednesday as another cold front drops through the region. There is better agreement today on a later frontal passage, which will act to limit instability across our area, with the best environment for any stronger convection to our W/NW. Though the best dynamics remain just outside of our area at this time, a deep trough aloft should hopefully be enough for some rainfall across most of the area, with the higher amounts confined to the northern half of the area. Guidance continues to trend down on rainfall amounts over the past few runs, with the current forecasted Quantitative Precipitation Forecast at 0.25" or less, with most of the local area east of I-95 forecast to see less than 0.10". Temperatures remain cool Thursday, as an upper low becomes centered over the NE and mid-Atlantic region. Highs Thursday will be about 5- 10 degrees below normal. KEY MESSAGE 3...Warming up to above average temperatures for the weekend into early next week. Significant changes are on the way by the end of the week, with decent model agreement that a flat upper ridge over the southern US starts to amplify and become anchored from the Gulf coast to off the SE coast. Surface high pressure parked offshore will allow southerly flow to prevail, leading to above normal temperatures returning by the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s and nearing 90F possible. Some of the deterministic models do show some chance for precipitation along a warm front Sunday, but the NBM/blended guidance keeps it mostly dry. Current ensemble guidance shows a high probability for highs into the 90s Sun-Tuesday (especially Mon-Tue) for much of the area, and the antecedent drought conditions should make this rather easy to occur. Marine As of 315pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and tidal rivers, starting late tonight for the Upper Ches. Bay and Wednesday afternoon for the lower Ches. Bay and the tidal rivers, through late Wednesday night. - Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for most of the day Thursday, with another chance of advisories overnight Thursday in the Ches. Bay. - Mostly benign southerly winds are forecast for the weekend and into early next week. High pressure located over the area has allowed benign marine conditions. Winds are variable with the high overhead around 5-10 kt, but will become southerly tonight as the high moves offshore later. The next low pressure system to affect the area is currently over the Great Lakes region and will push a cold front through the local waters late Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of this front, winds will increase from the pressure gradient tightening between the two systems. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will begin in the Upper Ches. Bay late tonight with southerly winds 15-20 kt. Winds elsewhere will be 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt (5-10 kt south of the VA/NC state border). The pressure gradient will increase throughout the day Wednesday with all of the Ches. Bay seeing SE winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Coastal waters north of the VA/NC state border will see an increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves and seas will increase to 3-4 ft with occasional 5-6 ft seas off the northern coastal waters. Overnight Wednesday, winds will relax some and shift out of the NW behind the front. There doesn't seem to be strong Cold Air Advection with this front, so not anticipating any headlines during the day Thursday, but NW winds 10- 15 kt are likely in the Ches. Bay. There may be another chance for advisories across the local waters Friday night into Saturday from another tightened, with local wind probs showing a 20-30% chance of gusts to 25 kt during this timeframe. Then, mostly benign marine conditions are anticipated through early next week as winds become southerly from high pressure offshore. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Wednesday to 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 10pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637-639. |
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