Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Ne This Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Foot.|
|Wed...Se Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Ne Late In The Morning, Then Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659am EDT Tuesday July 14 2020
A weak cold front slides across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning. High pressure then builds into the region through the middle of the week, and then slides offshore later in the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 655am EDT Tuesday... An upper trough is located across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early this morning. At the surface, low pressure is centered in vicinity of Cape Cod, with a cold front trailing to the SW into northern VA. A few isolated showers are possible this morning, mainly toward the warning shore of the Bay, but most locations will remain dry. Temperatures range from the mid 60s to low 70s for most locations early this morning. The cold front will slide through the area during the morning hours with the wind becoming northerly. By this afternoon. sea-breeze circulations become more dominant, and become the focal point for iso-scattered afternoon showers/tstms, with high-res data showing the best chance over interior SE VA/NE NC. 850mb temperatures drop to 14- 16C, which will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90F, with mid 80s at the immediate coast.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Thursday
As of 355am EDT Tuesday... High pressure builds into the region tonight, and then becomes centered over New England Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in onshore flow Wednesday, and then more SE by Thursday as the high nudges offshore. Upper heigheights build across the region Wednesday/Thursday as a ridge builds in aloft from the W. Thus there is not much of a trigger for aftn/early evening showers/tstms, so Probability of Precipitation are largely 20% or less, with the exception of the NW Piedmont where Probability of Precipitation are up to 30% Thursday afternoon as some showers/tstms could drift off the mountains as some shortwave energy slides across the northern periphery of the ridge. 850mb temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are generally in the 15-17C range supporting seasonable highs in the upper 80s/low 90s (mid 80s at the coast with onshore flow). Dewpoints Wednesday/Thursday afternoon range from the mid to upper 60s, so heat indices will be near or slightly above the ambient temperature. Overall, quite typical for mid July. Forecast lows are primarily in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
As of 400pm EDT Monday... Expansive upper ridge across the southern CONUS will persist into the medium range forecast period with continued hot and humid conditions and mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances.
Thursday night will be dry for most locations with some chance for showers lingering across the north through mid to late evening. Will keep shower and storm chances aob 25% Thursday night through early Friday afternoon. Southerly flow around surface high pressure offshore will keep moisture levels and temperatures elevated through the weekend. Quite warm on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, resulting in afternoon heat indices 100-105 degrees. Greatest thunderstorm chances will be along and west of I-95. The upper ridge breaks down somewhat over the eastern CONUS Saturday into Sunday with passing shortwave energy leading to lee troughing and 30-50% Probability of Precipitation each day. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the 70s. Ensemble guidance shows the upper ridge building back into the region to start next week with continued hot and humid conditions.
As of 230am EDT Tuesday... Surface high pressure will reside over the OH Valley and eastern Great Lakes region today. Light SSW winds early this morning will become NNW 10 kt or less by or before 12z, then ENE at similar speeds for the rest of today. Generally light onshore flow is expected to continue through Wednesday, before a slight uptick in east winds for Thursday (10-15 kt) which become SSE at similar speeds on Friday. SSW winds aob 15 kt expected this coming weekend. Waves on the Ches Bay will remain 1-2 ft through the period; seas 2-3 ft.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.