Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 Foot In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 803pm EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00z Aviation discussion. Seeing increasing chances that some strong to SVR storms will be possible Monday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue into late this evening. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast, warmer inland. 2) Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow. As of 755pm EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry with seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday. A few showers possible on Sunday, but otherwise remaining mild along the coast, warmer inland. An upper level shortwave, embedded within a potent upper level trough, has pushed offshore of the Delmarva coast as of this writing, with quick clearing behind the system. At the sfc, the attendant surface cold front and a meso low have pivoted offshore of the mid-Atlantic and Carolina coast. Cold air advection (N winds) behind the system will diminish overnight. Temperatures have largely become hung up in the lower and middle 30s over the region, but will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s overnight (locally warmer at the coast in the far SE). Seasonably cool and dry weather returns Friday, with highs bouncing back into the mid to upper 50s for most, under a mostly sunny sky. Surface high pressure becomes centered to our south, as the next low pressure system rapidly moves east across the Great Lakes, brining a quick shift in the winds back to the SSW by later morning and Fri afternoon. In fact, it will become quite breezy once again with gusts to 25-30 mph. Dry and turning warmer Sat through early Sunday with highs in the 60s, and lows mainly in the lower 40s. The next upper level trough starts to amplify over the central CONUS Sunday, with increasing clouds, but turning mild to warm with highs into the 60s to lower 70s. There is a low end chance for a few showers late Sunday, though NBM PoPs may be overdone. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front approaches early next week, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms Monday, with below normal temperatures to follow. The latest models are in decent agreement with a strong mid/upper level trough, almost becoming cutoff near the Great Lakes by Monday evening. At the sfc, intense low pressure of forecast to lift NE from the mid-MS/lower OH Valley to the Great Lakes late Sunday night/early Mon. With the upper low and surface low almost co- located, the models have trended to secondary surface low/trough development across the Appalachians Monday afternoon. That system will eventually drag a cold front through the area Monday night. Ahead of the front, warm and somewhat humid weather is expected on Monday with highs in the 70s and dew pts potentially in the lower- mid 60s. A band of showers and storms is likely across the area from Monday-Monday evening. If the secondary surface trough/mesolow does develop, some backing of the low level wind field would develop, enhancing what will already be decent shear. Storm Prediction Center has the region outlooked already, which is somewhat uncommon for the mid-Atlantic. While there is still a lot of uncertainty with all of these features coming together, this pattern does support a all types of potential severe WX. Ina addition, the airmass behind this will be much cooler and significantly drier, often a feature of severe WX in the spring. Highs only in the 40s Tue- Wed, with hard freeze probable for much of the area Tuesday night. Gradually trending warmer by late in the week. Marine As of 755pm EDT Thursday... - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters into late this evening. The strong cold front has pushed well south of the area and offshore with steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection in the wake of the front. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight, as the surge of colder air relaxes and high pressure builds in. Seas of 4-6 ft will slowly subside, but remain elevated into the overnight hours. Winds become southerly overnight as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Southerly winds increase Friday afternoon with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely from the NC/VA north to Fenwick and over the Bay, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next front. The weak front will push through late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Behind the front NW winds will be lighter. More tranquil marine conditions are expected Saturday into the first half of Sunday before the next strong system approaches the region late Sunday into Monday. Winds increase again Sunday night and Monday with the potential for gale conditions ahead and behind the front on Monday and Monday night. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Friday for ANZ656-658. |
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