Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Early This Afternoon, Then Becoming Ne Late. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Morning. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers. |
| Mon...W Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 15 Kt In The Evening. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 639am EDT Thu Oct 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in rainfall continues to increase late Saturday into early Monday with moderate confidence in timing. Isaias is now a hurricane. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday. 2) Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night into early Monday. As of 330am EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable to slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday. GOES water vapor channels continue to show a split flow pattern early this morning. A northern stream trough is across the Great Lakes, and there is an associated cold front pushing across the Eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the southern stream is evident in the cloud pattern to the N and NE of hurricane Isaias, with a trough in vicinity of TX. Mostly clear and not as cool locally ahead of the cold front, with temperatures mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, although some decoupling has occurred over interior S-central VA and interior NE NC where temperatures have dropped in the upper 40s. The cold front slides across the region this afternoon. Mixing associated with the front and downslope flow should allow for high temperatures to rise above average and into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Mostly clear tonight behind to front with low temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 40s NW to the upper 50s/lower 60s SE. Temperatures trend down to near seasonal averages Friday and Saturday. Not necessarily impactful, but statistical guidance is on the order of 4-8F cooler than NBM guidance for lows late Friday night/early Saturday morning (lower 50s to lower 60s NBM vs. mid/upper 40s to upper 50s MOS). Dry conditions continue through Saturday. However, a gradual increase in high levels clouds is expected as upper level moisture spreads over the region well in advance of Isaias. KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture and rain chances return Saturday night into early Monday. By Sunday and Monday, there is increasing confidence that moisture gets pulled northward and then pushed eastward across the region as Isaias makes landfall and merges with an upper trough in vicinity of the Mid-South. Confidence in timing is moderate as there is still some temporal differences in the model guidance. Of the 00z/08 deterministic global models and ensemble means, the EC AIFS remains to most progressive showing accumulating rainfall as early as the 18z Sat to 00z Sunday time period. The bulk of the guidance (ECMWF, EPS, EC AIFS ens, CMC, and GEPS) are generally in the 06z-12z Sunday timeframe for the onset of accumulating rainfall, and the GFS/GEFS are slightly slower and generally after 12z Sun. Incoming moisture will initially need to contend with a 1030mb high, which is forecast to still be in vicinity of Cape Cod by 00z Sun, so a somewhat slower onset is logical. However, once deeper moisture arrives rain should begin quickly as 00z ensemble guidance continues to show PW values (Precipitable Water values) at or above 200% of normal along with a plume of instability surging N ahead of the trough. There is still spread between the 10th and 90th percentile Quantitative Precipitation Forecast in the 00z/08 ensemble guidance. In general, the 10th percentile (reasonable low-end) accumulated precipitation through 00z Tuesday is 0.25-0.75", while the 90th percentile is on the order of 1.5-3.0". The 50th percentile (most likely case) shows a generalized 0.75-1.5" of rainfall, with the highest rainfall totals in the southern half of the area as there is a hint in the guidance of more enhanced rainfall along a coastal trough. The presence of a coastal trough would also suggest that an in situ wedge develops resulting in cooler temperatures and more stable conditions Sunday across the Piedmont. Deeper moisture erodes Sunday night into Monday. However, there are lingering Probability of Precipitation as the upper trough swings across the region. Behind this system, drier air will filter back in later Monday through the middle of the week. Temperatures should remain near average late this weekend through the middle of next week. Marine As of 330am EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions prevail through Saturday. - Small Craft Advisories are likely late this weekend into early next week as the remnant of Hurricane Isaias track through the central US, with high pressure well off the east coast. S-SW winds have increased to 10-15 kt early this morning as a weak disturbance passes N of the area. Occasional gusts to 20 kt are expected to continue through sunrise, before dropping off later this morning. Weak sea/bay breezes develop this afternoon; otherwise, very benign on the waters. A weak cold front moves through overnight Thursday and northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt by early Friday morning. Lighter winds return Friday afternoon with high pressure again settling over the area. Seas are expected to stay in 2-3 ft range through most of Saturday. Waves in the bay will be 1-2 ft. Hurricane Isaias has recently developed over the central Gulf and is forecast to make landfall in the western FL Panhandle early Saturday morning. While direct impacts are not anticipated locally, the interaction of the remnants of Isaias with an upper-level system is likely to lead to increased E-SE flow from Saturday night through Monday morning, with the peak in winds (20-25 kt w/ gusts to ~30 kt) occuring Sunday afternoon. Seas will also substantially increase to 5-8 ft and could be higher if winds trend up some, with 2-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. Regardless, Small Craft Advisories are likely during this time. The wind direction shifts to the W-NW Monday in the later half of Monday, while also gradually decreasing. A strong cold front could then pass through the area Tuesday into Wednesday, with elevated NW winds possible. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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