Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Am...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Snow In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. Snow. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 337am EST Tuesday Feb 18 2025 Synopsis A significant winter storm will impact the area from Wednesday through Thursday. Dry but very cold weather is expected Thursday night. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 335am EST Tuesday... Key Message: - Dry today with highs mainly in the 40s, as Arctic high pressure extends to the SE. Early morning weather analysis continues to show ~1050mb+ Arctic high pressure building over the Canadian Prairies/Northern Plains. Surface ridging extends SE into the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic with clear/cold weather locally w/ temps in the upper 20s-lower 30s. A shortwave trough is tracking over the Central High Plains. Dry weather will continue today and tonight as the high gradually builds toward the area...while the shortwave tracks eastward toward the Appalachians (which will be responsible for the snow on Wednesday/Wednesday night). There will be an increase in clouds today and especially tonight. Highs will be in the 40s in most areas. The Eastern Shore will stay cooler than the rest of the CWA (County Warning Area) with ongoing Cold Air Advection w/ gusty NW winds. Another shot of Cold Air Advection arrives overnight, and lows will drop into the lower-mid 20s in most areas with dew pts dropping into the single digits. Any snow likely remains across W/SW VA through sunrise on Wednesday. Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night As of 335am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Forecast confidence continues to increase for a significant winter storm to impact southeast portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday. - Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for SE VA and NE NC. Watches have been maintained farther north where forecast confidence is lower. The southern stream shortwave is forecast to track just to our south on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast by the afternoon before deepening as it tracks NNE off the NC/VA coast Wednesday night-Thu AM. Confidence is high that a significant winter storm will impact SE VA and NE NC from Wed-Wednesday night with snow totals in excess of 6" likely. Watches have been upgraded to warnings here and will maintain the watch farther north (including in the RIC Metro) where there is more uncertainty regarding snow amounts (model solutions still range from 2" to 6"+ across central portions of the area). Precipitation Timing and Impacts... Precip spreads in from west to east through Wednesday morning, as decent WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) aloft/isentropic ascent moves over the region. The initial area of light snow will likely target the Piedmont, RIC Metro, and Tri Cities...and could arrive as early as 7-9 AM. With the very cold temps, area roadways could become slick even after the first 0.5" of accumulation. This could result in hazardous conditions for theam commute if the snow moves in early enough. Most of the guidance shows it moving in a bit later (8-11 AM). The steady light snow will continue across the Piedmont and central VA through the early afternoon. Could easily see a quick 1-2" from Farmville to Richmond by early afternoon. Farther south, it may very well stay dry through 11am or noon before the low starts developing offshore. Moderate to heavy snow will likely overspread SE VA and NE NC during the afternoon thanks to strong 850-700mb frontogenesis on the NW side of the deepening low. Rates will likely be 1-2" per hour at times by the evening south and east of an Emporia-Williamsburg-Accomac line. Meanwhile, light snow will likely be coming to an end across the Piedmont and RIC Metro from W-E between 5 and 11 PM. The snow likely continues across SE VA and NE NC through early Thursday morning before precipitation finally moves offshore. Precip should be all snow with temps struggling to get out of the 20s across the vast majority of the area. Mixing with PL/FZRA/RA could lower totals across coastal NE NC, but am fairly confident that precipitation stays as mostly snow in Norfolk/VA Beach. Snow Totals... The forecast has largely remained the same across SE VA and NE NC, where a widespread 5-10" of snow is forecast. The Winter Storm Watches have been upgraded to warnings from Greensville/Dinwiddie Counties to the VA Eastern Shore southeastward where confidence in 3" of snow is very high. Forecast uncertainty is much greater farther north, as the ECMWF/HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) (which are on the lower end of the spectrum) have only 1-3", while the NAM/GFS (Global Forecast System) and a couple of the CAMs have 6" totals across much of the area (except the northern tier of counties). Will maintain the watch for the RIC Metro northward to account for the uncertainty. Even though confidence is lower, will upgrade to warnings across the south- central VA Piedmont in collaboration with RNK. As for the forecast, have 2-3" from Louisa to Cambridge, 4-5" from Farmville-Richmond- Tappahannock, and 5-10" farther southeast (w/ 8-10" in all of Hampton Roads). Light ice accums have been removed from all areas except for a small part of NE NC near the Albemarle Sound. Thursday/Thursday night... While most of the snow will come to an end by early Thursday AM...an additional half inch of snow is possible from 6 AM-noon on Thursday as one final (strong) northern stream shortwave rotates through the area. With cold temps around 20- 25F in the morning...this could result in additional accums on area roadways. While wind gusts will generally be in the 15-25 mph range in SE VA through most of the event, gusts will increase to 25-35 mph during the day on Thu as the gradient tightens on the back side of the low. As such, some blowing and drifting of snow is possible. Have added blowing snow to the forecast on Thu for areas near the immediate bay/coast where gusts will be highest. All snow should exit by 1pm Thu. Highs will rise to around 32F Thursday afternoon, with lows in the teens to lower 20s Thu night. Single digit wind chills are forecast across eastern parts of the area Thu night, and Cold Weather Advisories may be needed. Long Term - Friday Through Monday As of 335am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cold and dry with temperatures slowly increasing Friday into the weekend but remaining below average. High pressure will move into the area along with arctic air keeping Friday through the weekend below average for temps. Temps for at least Thurs night thru Fri night will be dependent on how much snowfall is received and where. In general, Thurs night will be clear with temps in the mid teens with the Eastern Shore in the low 20s. Overnight lows will continue to be below freezing thru the weekend with Thurs night being the coldest. Friday should reach above freezing with temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the piedmont, but will be dependent on snow. Sat will reach the lower 40s and highs Sunday will begin to rebound in the upper 40s. There is potential for a weak system to bring light showers Mon/Tues. Marine As of 335am EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay tonight for elevated northerly winds. - A wintry low pressure system will bring solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Wednesday through Friday, with gale conditions possible Thursday night and Friday morning. - Quiter marine weather expected for the weekend. High pressure is located W of the waters this morning, with low pressure well to our NE over the Canadian Maritimes. A residual pressure gradient continutes to lead to NW flow around 10 kt, though there are a few readings approaching 15 kt in the lower and upper Chesapeake Bay, in addition to the MD coastal waters. All earlier headlines were cancelled and/or expired. Through the rest of this morning, hi-res guidance suggests a brief surge of northerly winds up to 15-20 kt is possible in the northern bay and coastal waters. Given that this appears quite localized and transient, will hold off on any headlines this morning and mention gusts to 20 kt in the CWF. Winds relax again this afternoon before another northerly wind surge drops through the waters tonight. There is higher confidence in reaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria for this event tonight and >18 kt sustained wind probabilities are 50-70% throughout much of the bay. Have therefore raised SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines for all of the bay starting at 03z/10 PM this evening and the lower James starting at 06z/1am Wednesday morning. The surge looks to be rather short-lived and only have headlines through 12-15z/7 AM-10am Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure will take shape along a coastal trough offshore of the Carolina coast Wednesday, eventually lifting NE near the NC OBX Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. N-NNE winds will increase later Wednesday across the southern coastal waters, with elevated winds spreading northward into all of the bay and coastal waters Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the low lifts N and the pressure gradient tightens. Solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected for all of the marine area with winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. The ocean zone S of the NC/VA border could see a few gusts to 35 kt early Thu morning, though confidence in gale conditions (frequent >34 kt gusts) is low. There will also be widespread snow, heavy at times, in the precipitation shield NW of the low. Significantly reduced visibilities are expected in the snow. The low pulls offshore Thursday, shifting winds to the NNW as SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue. A strong push of Cold Air Advection is then expected Thursday night into Friday morning and wind probs for gale conditions are high (60-90%) on the ocean N of the NC/VA border and medium (40-60%) in the Chesapeake Bay. Since this is still 48+ hours out and to avoid confusion with other elevated wind periods preceding the probable gales, will hold off on any gale watches this cycle with the expectation that they will be needed in future forecast updates. Elevated NW winds linger through most of Friday. Winds diminish significantly for the weekend as high pressure settles over the area and benign marine conditions are expected. Seas are 2-3 ft S and 3-4 ft N this morning. 1-2 ft waves are expected in the bay through today, increasing to 2-3 ft tonight with N wind surge. 2-4 ft seas also perist through tonight. As the low takes shape to our S Wednesday night, seas build to 4-6 ft in the southern coastal waters. By Thursday morning and afternoon, seas range from 5- 7 ft S to 4-6 ft N. Elevated waves/seas are expected to continue overnight Thursday through Friday. A much quieter sea state returns for the weekend. Hydrology As of 1130am EST Monday... River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the James River at Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and the Richmond Locks, and also for the Appomattox River at Farmville, Mattoax, and Matoaca. Warnings also continue for the Meherrin River near Lawrenceville and the Nottoway River near Rawlings/Stony Creek/Sebrell. These points will see minor to moderate flooding, which will likely continue for the next few days. See water.noaa.gov/wfo/akq for the latest site-specific information. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for MDZ021>025. NC...Winter Storm Warning from 10am Wednesday to 6pm EST Thursday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-082-083- 085-509>522. Winter Storm Warning from 10am Wednesday to 6pm EST Thursday for VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525. Winter Storm Warning from 6am Wednesday to 6pm EST Thursday for VAZ060-065>067-079>081. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7am EST Wednesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Wednesday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 10am EST Wednesday for ANZ638. |
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