Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
10 - 15
5 - 10
10 - 15
5 - 10
|Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Patchy Fog Early This Morning With Vsby Locally Less Than 1 Nm.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft Early, Otherwise 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely In The Afternoon With Vsby Locally 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Rain In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby Locally 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Tue...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
723am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023
Weak high pressure will build across through tonight. A weak low will then move through the Mid Atlantic region on Monday and pass south of Long Island Monday night, with high pressure following for Tuesday through Wednesday. A weak cold front comes through dry Wednesday night. High pressure returns for Thursday. A frontal system impacts the region Friday night into Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Cold front just west of the area will come through during the early daylight hours, with a gusty W flow developing in its wake. Fropa and daytime heating should scour out any remaining fog, yielding mostly sunny skies for today. Downslope W flow and mixing up to 825 mb per KEWR NAM12 sounding support high temps reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s across most of the area, with mid 50s across the forks of Long Island and SE CT.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday
Weak high pressure settling over the area under clear skies will allow good radiational cooling, with lows in the upper 20s across the interior valleys and Long Island Pine Barrens. Temps in.just outside NYC will bottom out in the lower 40s, with 40s elsewhere.
Followed GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) blend for low pressure approaching from the west for Monday, with NAM looking too slow to bring shortwave energy toward the area in fast zonal flow aloft. Rain chances begin to increase W of NYC during mid to late morning, with widespread light to occasionally moderate rain for the afternoon/evening, tapering off late at night.
High temps on Monday will be held to 45-50 well NW of NYC where clouds/rain arrive earlier, with lower 50s elsewhere. As colder air advects in on a brisk N flow Monday night, precipitation could mix with or change to snow briefly before ending, with some minor accumulation possible in the higher elevations well NW of NYC. Low temps in the 30s areawide Monday night.
Continued with weaker/dry trend for Tue, with a weak shortwave trough passing to the south. High temps should be closer to normal for Tue, mostly in the lower 50s.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Global guidance is now tracking low pressure quicker, and farther to the south, for Tuesday and by Tuesday night the low will now be well to the east, and have gone with a dry forecast.
A fairly active pattern remains as the upper flow remains nearly zonal. A northern stream shortwave tracks to the north Wednesday night into Thursday, and brings a dry cold front through the region. High pressure returns Thursday with weak ridging aloft. Guidance has been consistent with a low moving onshore of the Pacific coast Wednesday night into Thursday and tracking quickly east. Unsettled conditions return for the end the week with this low impacting the area Friday night into Saturday. There remains some uncertainty with the warm front and the track of the low. With some better consistency have gone with likely probabilities late Friday night, still undercutting the NBM POPs, which were categorical.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages Tuesday night through Friday. Temperatures Friday night into Saturday could rise above our seasonal averages, depending on the placement of the warm front, and for now have leaned toward the 75th percentile for temperatures Friday night into Saturday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect, and per NWPS/GFSwave blend adjusted upward a foot per observations has been extended farther into Monday night for the ocean waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for NY Harbor and the eastern bays of Long Island and the eastern Sound for Sunday from daybreak into early afternoon, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and ocean seas above 5 ft still expected after cold fropa early this morning.
Minimal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond may also be possible on the ocean waters on the ocean, with N flow gusting up to 25 kt.
Winds and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the waters. An increasing SW flow ahead of a weak low and cold front tracking to the north may allow wind gusts and seas to be near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on the ocean waters Wednesday night into early Thursday. With high pressure returning Thursday winds and seas across the forecast waters will be sub SCA. Then with a storm system to the west by late Friday southerly winds will be increasing and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be developing on the ocean waters late in the day Friday and continue into Friday night.
At this time no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-338-340. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for ANZ355.