Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 606 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
The region will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure building southeast from central Canada today. High pressure then builds across the waters Sunday, and then slowly shifts to the south and east into the middle of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
636am EST Sat Mar 6 2021
The region will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure building southeast from central Canada today. High pressure then builds across the area Sunday, and then slowly shifts to the south and east into the middle of next week. A cold front approaches from the west Thursday and becomes nearly stationary across the region Friday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
High pressure slowly builds in from the NW today while a cyclonic flow remains aloft. A surface trough accompanied by shortwave energy aloft is passing through early on, combining with just enough moisture from the Great Lakes for scattered flurries for parts of the forecast area early this morning. Dry weather otherwise with winds gusting 20-25 mph. Minimum RH values will be 30-40 percent and ground level moisture levels preclude concerns with fire weather today.
Deterministic NBM has been running a few degrees too cold for high temperatures over the past few days in this NW flow regime, and is currently running too cold with hourly temperatures for the past few hours. NBM median high temperature leans toward the higher side of the member envelope, so have gone a little above the deterministic numbers for highs today. This is still nearly 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night
Shortwave lift pivots through tonight, working with some moisture from the Great Lakes. Flurries possible mainly north and west of the city. High pressure continues to slowly build in on Sunday. Looks like more in the way of sunshine this time along with lighter winds, but high temperatures will still be below normal. Once again, went a little higher than NBM for high temperatures. Radiational cooling Sunday night will allow for lows in the teens for the northern zones and the Pine Barrens Region. Lows elsewhere mostly 20-25 Sunday night.
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
Heigheights will continue to rise through Wednesday night as a ridge aloft is reinforced from a building ridge moving in from the central U.S and the Gulf of Mexico region.
Weak warm advection begins to setup during Monday as low level winds gradually back, and a warming trend begins. The warming will then continue into the end of the week, with stronger warming expected Wednesday and Thursday as the surface high and upper ridge begin to move offshore. By Thursday temperatures may be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above normal seasonal levels, especially across inland locations, away from the influence of cooler ocean waters. Ocean waters temperatures remain in the lower 40s. At this time no record highs are in jeopardy Wednesday and Thursday with record highs in the upper 60s and 70s.
The forecast has become a little more uncertain with the approach of a cold front for Thursday into Friday, as the eastern ridge is a little more amplified and split flow has now developed with the northern stream trough farther to the north, mainly across southern Canada, and the shortwave moving out of the western trough and tracking into the plains and then the Great Lakes upper midwest region. The cold front will be a little slower to move into the area, and then become nearly stationary as the southern stream frontal wave moves into the Appalachians late Friday. With the uncertainty and to keep some continuity will have slight chance to low end chance probabilities mainly Thursday night through Friday. And while Friday will likely remain above normal for temperatures, cloud cover, and the timing of the front will affect the highs for the day.
NW winds remain gusty, but will slowly subside this afternoon. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect on the ocean waters into early afternoon, mainly for the gusts as seas are expected to prevail below 5 ft. There could be occasional gusts this afternoon and evening up to around 25 kt on the ocean, but likely not frequent or widespread enough to warrant extending the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) beyond the current expiration time of 1 PM this afternoon. Relatively tranquil conditions otherwise follow late night Saturday through Sunday. NW-N winds pick up a little Sunday night before backing and subsiding on Monday, but remaining below advisory criteria.
With high pressure dominating across the forecast waters through Wednesday, winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. As a cold front approaches with high pressure off the coast Thursday, southwesterly winds will strengthen, and ocean seas will be approaching 5 feet late Wednesday night.
No hydrologic concerns through the period.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.