Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 744 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday night. Hurricane Teddy will pass well east of the waters Tuesday and into the Canadian Maritimes mid week. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts concerning Teddy. High pressure remains over centered over the Mid-Atlantic into Thursday before a weak frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes into Friday. High pressure returns to start the weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
739pm EDT Monday September 21 2020
High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday. High pressure remains over centered over the Mid-Atlantic into Thursday before a weak frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes into Friday. High pressure returns to start the weekend period as a stronger cold front approaches the region for early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Forecast is on track this evening. Have trended temperatures and dewpoints down a bit to reflect current trends. Otherwise, tranquil conditions are forecast tonight with high pressure remaining over the northeast. Winds will diminish and combine with clear skies to promote excellent radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures are expected to fall into the middle 30s across the interior and Long Island Pine Barrens, with lower to middle 40s most elsewhere. Areas of frost are likely across the interior and have issued a frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am Tuesday.
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches through this evening due to high seas and long period swell.
.SHORT TERM /6am TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The surface high will weaken on Tuesday as it shifts to the south and west of the region. Teddy will lift to the north and continue to become extratropical as it merges with a strong upper low off the New England coast. The repositioning of the surface high and Teddy passing offshore will create a stronger pressure gradient and result in a bit breezier conditions. Otherwise, highs will moderate back closer to normal in the lower 70s.
Mostly clear conditions are forecast Tuesday night, but there may be some increase in smoke aloft from the wildfires across the west as it moves around the periphery of the upper level ridge. This is supported by the vertically integrated smoke field of the HRRR. The hazy sky could persist into Wednesday morning. Lows will likely be much milder than recent nights, falling into middle and upper 40s inland and 50s elsewhere.
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to high seas and long period swell.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday
Surface high pressure remains anchored over the mid-south as Teddy heads well to the northeast. As a result the pressure gradient relaxes by Wednesday afternoon. The surface high slides east on Thursday as surface winds locally will become more southerly by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures and moisture will be on the increase, as warm advection commences under the southerly flow. Temperatures begin to feel more climatologically normal for this time of year. HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) is also showing vertically integrated smoke passing well overhead again on Wednesday afternoon. This will remain at very high levels and appear like thin cirrus overhead.
Back to the west an upper trough takes shape over the OH Valley and brings through a weak cold front by Friday. Guidance continues to keep the area basically dry, with the bulk of any precipitation staying south of the area where upper forcing is a bit better. The front clears the coast by Friday afternoon and the upper trough axis swings trough by early Saturday.
Upper ridging then builds in for the weekend with high pressure to the northeast and mainly dry and seasonable conditions, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A deep upper trough and cold front approach by Monday morning bringing a rain chance by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Models are differing on the evolution of this system the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) increasing cloud cover and shower chances by Sunday evening with the weak development of surface low south of the area ahead of the main system. The GFS, however is keeping us mainly dry until Monday afternoon with the passage of the front. Given the Days 6-7 timeframe and inherent uncertainty, for now have increased Probability of Precipitation on both Sunday afternoon and Monday. Temperatures look to remain seasonable, or just above.
There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Wednesday due to lingering high seas and long period swell.
No changes were made to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) that goes through Wednesday afternoon. Winds on the ocean will gust 20-25 kt tonight and then 25-30 kt on Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may also be occasional gusts around 25 kt on the eastern LI Bays and eastern LI Sound. If the gusts look more frequent, then an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be needed here on Tuesday. Elevated seas will remain on the ocean due to long period swells from Hurricane Teddy which will pass well east of New England on Tuesday. See the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts on Teddy.
Atlantic ocean seas will remain elevated on Wednesday, with 4-6 ft wave heigheights across the waters diminishing by Wednesday evening. Wind gusts may approach 20 kts as well on Wednesday afternoon.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels from Thursday through SUnday evening. Small craft conditions may return by Monday. Waves of 4-6ft and gusts nearing 20kts may be possible across the Atlantic Ocean waters, in association with an approaching cold front.
A warmer and drier day is forecast on Tuesday with min RH values less than 30%, particularly across CT. Winds may also end up a bit stronger. A Special Weather Statement was issued this evening for southern CT through Tuesday evening as a result.
No hydrological concerns are anticipated through next Monday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Astronomical high tides will continue to run high and will combine with long period swells and high seas from distant Hurricane Teddy in the Atlantic. The higher of the tides continues to be during the day time. Tide levels are forecast to remain below benchmarks tonight and Tuesday night. Widespread minor coastal flooding is likely Tuesday afternoon along the south shore back bays of Nassau and Queens as well as Southern Westchester and Southern Fairfield on Tuesday. Isolated minor is forecast for the rest of the Long Island coast and lower NY Harbor with the Tuesday afternoon high tide.
Another episode of minor coastal flooding is possible on Wednesday afternoon as long period swells will only slowly subside. However, have held off on any products for Wednesday until confidence in total water levels increase.
The high surf advisory has been extended through 6 am Wednesday. Wave heigheights of 7 to 12 ft are forecast, highest into Tuesday. Widespread dune erosion and scattered overwashes expected for the ocean beachfront today through Tuesday evening.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2pm to 6pm EDT Tuesday for CTZ009. Frost Advisory from 2am to 9am EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2pm to 6pm EDT Tuesday for NYZ071. Frost Advisory from 2am to 9am EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for NYZ080-081-178- 179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11am to 4pm EDT Tuesday for NYZ178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.