Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds, Becoming Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 3 Seconds. Showers. |
| Thu...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 712am EST Monday Dec 2 2024 Synopsis Strong Canadian high pressure will gradually build from the west through the first half of this week. High pressure weakens as it slides off the Southeast coast on Wednesday. A low pressure system will push a series of cold fronts through the region as the low passes to the north into Thursday. High pressure builds back in from the west Friday and into the weekend. A weak area of low pressure could skirt by the region late this weekend or early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight With winds going light to even calm in a few of the more sheltered locales, more of a temperature spread has developed for the morning wake up. Widespread upper teens to lower 20s are making for one of the colder mornings thus far in the more rural and sheltered interior locations. Otherwise mainly upper 20s to around 30 in the more urban spots to start. Temperatures will recover into the 30s quickly for the later morning with a good deal of sunshine. Essentially a deep layered W to NW flow regime will be in place to begin this week. A strong cP air mass builds down across the Northern high Plains today. This high will continue to push southeast with time across the nation's mid section. At the same time weak low pressure troughs will reside north of our area. A W to NW flow regime will pulse across the region as these weak troughs pivot north of the area. The region will be increasingly under the influence of the high well off to the west over time. With a dry air mass in place look for brisk and seasonably cold conditions for today. Day time max temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s along the coast, with mainly upper 30s inland. Wind chill readings will be hovering mainly in the lower and middle 30s this afternoon. For tonight the winds lighten a bit as temperatures will fall primarily into the 20s region wide, with a few isolated upper teens in the normally colder rural spots. The exception will be the metro where temperatures settle back to around 30. Temperatures today and tonight will average about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Short Term - Tuesday Through Tuesday Night Brisk conditions with winds out of the NW resume again during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be similar to Monday with mainly upper 30s to lower 40s under mainly sunny skies. Expect also similar conditions for Tuesday night compared to the previous night with lows mainly in the 20s region wide. Dew points will remain primarily in the upper teens to around 20 as dry and brisk conditions will continue to prevail under mainly clear skies. Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday Key Points *Temperatures run below normal through the week, with highs likely not climbing out of the 30s on Friday and Saturday for most. *A clipper low will bring rain and snow showers, along with gusty winds to the area Wednesday night through Friday. No major changes with long term thinking in this update. A potent shortwave energy diving down from near the North Pole will aid in deepening a clipper low as it passes over the Great Lakes and to our north. This low will drag a series of cold fronts through the area Thursday, along with some rain and snow showers. The system lacks significant moisture and global guidance continues to keep Quantitative Precipitation Forecast under half an inch , with highest amounts across eastern areas. West of the Hudson, precipitation appears limited, with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast at or under a tenth of an inch. Temperature profiles appear cold enough across the interior to allow snow for most if not the entirety of the event, which may lead to a light snow accumulation in some locales. At the coast, a mix of rain and snow, or simply plain rain, is most likely with surface temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40. Timing of the intermittent showers still looks Wednesday evening and night, gradually tapering Thursday morning. The more impactful weather from this system may end up being the winds and cold air that will be filtering in behind it. With the region between a 1035 mb high to the west and a 980 mb low to the northeast, winds will become quite blustery on Thursday, persisting into Friday. Current forecast has sustained winds peaking at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts peaking at 35 to near 40 mph. These peak values will likely be Thursday into Thursday night. The first push of cold air comes behind the cold front, but there looks to be a secondary push on Friday. 850mb temps look to bottom out Friday evening around -12 to -15C. These values are below the 10% moving average for the OKX sounding per SPC's Sounding Climatology Page. This should yield highs Friday and Saturday only in the 30s, with overnight lows in the teens and 20s. A gradual warm up begins late this weekend, returning conditions to near normal. High pressure returns from the west by the start of the weekend, and looks to maintain cold, but mostly dry, conditions. Global guidance continues to offer differing solutions with the potential of another diving low out of Canada, and its interaction southern stream energy. For now, these two features look to remain separate, and the local region may simply remain dry with high pressure remaining in place into early next week. Will need to continue monitor trends for a better handle at this point, but a major system appears unlikely. Marine A W to NW flow regime prevails through the first half of the week. No advisories will be in place through at least Tuesday night. A few gusts up to around 20 kt are possible later in the day Tuesday, but conditions are expected to remain below small craft. Winds and waves increase late Wednesday ahead of a cold frontal passage and potentially reach gale force by late Wednesday evening. Near gale force winds continue Thursday and into early Friday out of the northwest before lowering Friday morning. Ocean seas during this time peak around 10 to 12 feet. Waves lower below small craft criteria on all waters through the day on Friday. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are anticipated the next 7 days. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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