Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 To 2 Ft, Building To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely In The Evening.|
|Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
111am EST Tuesday Nov 29 2022
High pressure will gradually build in from the west through Tuesday, then offshore by late afternoon. Deep low pressure tracks through eastern Canada Wednesday and Wednesday night, sending a strong cold front across the region. High pressure then builds in for Thursday and slides off the mid Atlantic coast Friday. Another frontal system impacts the area Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure returns for Sunday and moves off the Northeast coast Sunday night. A frontal system may move into the region Monday.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
The forecast remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to the hourly forecast database over the next few hours to account for the latest observations and trends as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west.
Building heigheights aloft ahead of the next amplifying longwave trough west of the Mississippi River Valley will provide for a tranquil start to the week. A large area of surface high pressure oriented north to south will build toward the eastern seaboard tonight. This has resulted in gradually diminishing winds that veer around to the north.
Light winds and clear skies will provide for strong radiational cooling. Lows by daybreak will range from the mid and upper 20s inland inland/Pine Barrens region of LI, to the lower and mid 30s at the coast. This is a few degrees below normal.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Wednesday
High pressure builds across the area Tuesday morning and then offshore in the afternoon with a weak return flow setting up. Southerly winds begin to gradually strengthen late Tuesday night as a strong frontal system approaches from the west.
Conditions remain dry for Tuesday and Tuesday night with any threat of showers ahead of the cold front not coming in until later Wednesday morning. Clouds will be on the increase late Tuesday due to large scale warm advection preceding the amplifying longwave trough over the mid section of the country.
Highs on Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 40s, which is slightly below normal. For Tuesday night, lows will likely be achieved by midnight before the onset of low-level warm advection in a strengthening southerly flow. Lows will range from around freezing inland, to around 40 at the coast. These readings are 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Generally, stayed close to the NBM with some MOS influences in the typically colder locations.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday
Confidence is increasing for a strong cold front to impact the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Deepening surface low pressure will be tracking north of the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning and through eastern Canada into Wednesday night. A warm front will be developing north of the region by early Wednesday and the area will be a warm airmass for Wednesday. A deep moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday will bring increasing moisture into the region with precipitable waters values increasing to around 1.25 inches by afternoon. Strong frontal forcing ahead of the front will allow for a period of moderate to heavy rain fall, especially later in the afternoon and into the early evening hours. There is little surface and elevated CAPE, and no instability, so will nor mention any thunder. The other concern will be for a period of strong winds and gusts just ahead of and just behind the cold front. A strong low level jet of 60-70kt around 950 MB could mix down to the surface, especially in the stronger showers. Guidance is still indicating the potential to reach wind advisory criteria for a few hours late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. For this time frame have used the 90th NBM percentile for sustained wind speeds and gusts. The highest potential for reaching advisory winds will be around the New York City metropolitan area and east across Long Island and into portions of southern Connecticut. Gusty winds then remain into later Wednesday night, below advisory levels.
Surface high pressure will build into the region from the southwest Thursday into Thursday night. The upper flow across the country remains nearly zonal and progressive with a couple of shortwaves expected to impact the area, with another rather strong frontal system Saturday into Saturday night, and another for the beginning of next week. Used the NBM for precipitation probabilities Saturday and Sunday night into Monday. There are still some timing uncertainties for Monday, and how quickly cold air will move out of the region ahead of a warm front. At this time do have a wintry mix possible Sunday night into Monday morning.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the ocean has been allowed to expire/cancelled based on sub-advisory conds for the past few hours. Winds and seas should continue to subside through the rest of the night.
Southerly flow will be increasing Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. By Wednesday afternoon gale force gusts are possible on the non ocean waters, and likely on the ocean waters. Even sustained winds will be approaching gale force on the ocean waters just ahead and behind the cold front late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Gales will continue into the evening hours on the non ocean waters and through Wednesday night on the ocean waters. A Gale Watch has been issued for all the forecast waters beginning 17Z Wednesday, continuing until 05Z Thursday for the non ocean waters, and 11Z for the ocean.
A strong northwest flow behind the cold front will keep SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on the non ocean waters into Thursday evening, and through Thursday night on the ocean waters.
With high pressure expected to be over the waters for Friday winds and seas will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Then southerly flow increases once again ahead of the next cold front Friday night into Saturday and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to develop Friday night on the ocean waters, and Saturday on the non ocean waters, and then continue into Saturday night.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Wednesday through Monday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355.