Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Light Rain Early This Evening.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 622 PM EST Sat Dec 5 2020 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Rapidly deepening low pressure tracks along the New England coast tonight. The system continues to track northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Another low pressure passes well offshore early next week. High pressure stays west of the region early next week before shifting over the region Wednesday into Thursday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
656pm EST Sat Dec 5 2020
Rapidly deepening low pressure tracks along the New England coast tonight. The system continues to track northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Another low pressure passes well offshore early next week. High pressure stays west of the region early next week before shifting over the region Wednesday into the end of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Deepening low pressure, about 978 mb, will track across the Gulf of Maine this evening.
The winter weather advisory for interior portions of southeast CT has been cancelled. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and the light intensity, most of the precipitation is falling as light rain (a few flakes could mix in). There have been only a handful of reports with 1 to 4 inches across portions of the advisory area.
The precipitation should end across eastern LI and southeast CT in the next couple of hours.
Gusty NW winds will continue tonight, generally 25 to 35 mph and highest near the coast.
Subsidence and drier air should allow skies to clear from west to east tonight.
Low temperatures will be in the 20s inland to the lower 30s near the coast. Black ice is largely not a concern at this time due to strong winds through the night. Drier air should also allow any standing water to evaporate. The only area of concern could be interior Connecticut where snowfall occurred today. An SPS may be needed here.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through 6pm Sunday
The deep low pressure continues to track up into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. The system will become vertically stacked and gradually weaken through the day. However, the Tri-State will lie between the low and high pressure to the west. The pressure gradient between these two systems will support gusty NW winds, 20 to 30 mph, through the day. The strongest winds will most likely occur closer to the coast.
Skies will be mostly clear overall, but there could be some flat stratocu in the afternoon due to cyclonic flow aloft.
High temperatures will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, several degrees below normal. The wind chill will make it feel like it is in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday
Zonal upper level jet moves in over the area for mid to late next week.
At the surface, low pressure will gradually fill in and weaken as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night into early next week. A trailing cold front extending southward into the Atlantic well east of the region will have another low develop along it Monday through Tuesday well out into the Atlantic.
High pressure will remain west of the region into early next week with a persistent NW flow. The gradient will tighten a bit as the low over the atlantic passes nearby on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
From mid to late next week, high pressure moves in from the west but its center will be in the Southeast US. A quick moving low approaches next Friday from the Great Lakes with some possible precipitation for next Friday night into Saturday. Other than that, it is a dry forecast for the long term.
Temperatures will be colder than normal through early next week with the persistent NW flow helping with cold air advection. The airmass will begin to moderate midweek with a return to near normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday.
The gale warning remains in effect on all waters through tonight. However, winds are likely to start falling below gales from west to east this evening into tonight. The gale warning will likely begin being replaced with Small Craft Advisories well before the expiration of the current gale warning. Ocean seas will be 7 to 10 ft and only slowly subside by early Sunday morning. Conditions on Sunday will remain at Small Craft levels through much of the day.
Winds will fall below any SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Sunday night, but it should take most of the night for the seas to fall below 5 ft. By Monday, all waters will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria and should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through the end of the week. The only exception could be Tuesday and Tuesday night as some wind gusts may approach 25 kt as the gradient tightens as low pressure passes well south and east of the area.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Gale Warning until 6am EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.