Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N Late. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
808pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
High pressure builds in through Independence Day. A warm lifts north of the area on Tuesday, with its associated cold front moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in for Thursday with another frontal boundary affecting the area at the end of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
The biggest change with this update is lowering dew points over the next few hours as much drier air has made its way into the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast New Jersey, and portions of New York City.
Skies have cleared across the entire cwa. Outside of a few fair weather cu this eve, mainly skc tngt. Light nly flow so decent radiational cooling is expected, especially across the outlying areas. As a result, went with a cooler MET/MAV blend for lows.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Monday Night
Strong subsidence on Independence Day, so any cu development is expected to be limited and flat attm. Some thin cirrus possible by the end of the day, but the bottom line is a mostly sunny day. Light nly winds to start the day, followed by sea breeze flow in the afternoon. The NBM was used for high temps, which yields mainly low to mid 80s.
Increasing high clouds by late Monday night, but this does not appear to be too strong of a limiting factor for low temps. Especially after a mainly clear eve. As a result, again went with the cooler MAV/MET blend. There could be some patchy fog in the mrng with the added llevel moisture from the onshore flow, which has been added to the forecast.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
A warm front lifts north of the region on Tuesday and a return southerly flow sets up, introducing a noticeably more humid airmass. However, increase in cloud coverage will prevent temperatures from getting too warm, and in fact will be near normal for this time of year on Tuesday. Tuesday seems to be the best chance for showers and thunderstorms with the warm front, then the associated cold front moving through late overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now, any thunderstorms looks to limited to north and west of New York City for Tuesday and into the first half of Tuesday night. Other areas will see a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly with the cold frontal passage late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. A pre-frontal trough will move towards the region late in the day Tuesday. There may be enough shear and instability to produce some strong to sever thunderstorms across the interior. Will have to continue to monitor this threat. Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of northeast New Jersey in a slight risk for severe storms for Tuesday.
Deterministic models show high pressure building in from southern Canada on Wednesday, however ensemble models continue to show chances for precipitation to continue, though not as widespread as Tuesday with cyclonic flow aloft continuing. Though, Wednesday will not be a washout with only a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is currently forecast.
Mainly dry and somewhat less humid conditions are expected for Wednesday night through Thursday with the high continuing to build in from the northwest.
The unsettled weather is expected to continue into the end of the week as another cold front approaches Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in for Saturday night and Sunday.
With more clouds than expected for much of the week, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year.
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels thru Monday night as high pressure builds over the waters.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed for late Tuesday into Tuesday night with southerly winds increasing and 25 kt gusts becoming frequent for most coastal locations except the western sound and harbor. Waves build to around 5 ft on the ocean waters as well during this time frame.
Conditions diminish Tuesday night, and should come down below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by Wednesday morning. Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Friday night.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Saturday.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a low risk of rip currents on Monday.
An increasing southerly flow of 15 to 20 kt Tuesday will aid in a high risk of rip currents.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.