Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With Slight Chance Of Tstms. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With Tstms Likely In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 1 Ft. Showers Likely/|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1219am EDT Monday July 23 2018
Synopsis: Low pressure will persist to the west early this week, while offshore high pressure builds slowly westward. An associated frontal boundary will remain to the west through much of the week, with an extended period of unsettled weather with the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. A prolonged period of southerly flow will also result in high humidity.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 1215am EDT...Band of heavier showers continues moving northward into CT and the Lower Hudson Valley, therefore have updated Probability of Precipitation to reflect latest radar trends. With a deep southerly flow persisting, showers can still develop through the overnight, with any shower bringing a moderate to heavy rainfall.
Although Precipitable Water values remain high, modest flow has led to fairly quick moving storms that are limiting overall rainfall amounts.
While air mass does have sfc-based instability, most of that instability is above H8, so without an organized source of lift coverage should be limited. Do expect that to change tonight, especially out east, as heigheights rise aloft over the western Atlantic and push rain band and associated mid level forcing back westward from the Atlantic
Short Term - 6pm This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
An unsettled pattern will be in place the next few days as the region remains sandwiched between a deep upper trough over the eastern US and downstream high pressure stationed offshore and building slowly westward. This setup will result in deep tropical moisture and uncomfortably high dewpoints.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected into Monday night. Main areas of activity should be across eastern CT/Long Island, also from NYC north/west, during Monday afternoon, where instability looks to be maximized at least into early afternoon, and as multiple bands of enhanced mid level cyclonic vorticity pivot counterclockwise around the offshore upper high to provide some lift.
Precip chances should start to diminish later Monday afternoon into Monday night as the offshore high continues to build westward.
Temperatures will be near seasonable but with very muggy conditions.
A high risk of rip currents will continue on Monday
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue with an omega block in place, keeping a large scale upper ridge over the southwestern US and western Atlantic, and a large scale upper trough between. As a result, broad southwest flow will continue to advect moisture into our region, while both large scale forcing for ascent and a series of short waves maintain a chance of rain through at least late week. Although thunderstorms will be possible, the largely tropical air mass and weak, wet adiabatic lapse rates may act to temper more widespread coverage. Regardless, periods of heavy rainfall will be likely, though the timing and placement of these showers will be uncertain for any given day. There is some indication that a cold front may approach or even move through by late week, but with little change in the large scale pattern expect a quick return to unsettled weather.
Daytime temperatures will remain a few degrees below climatological normals due to cloud cover and onshore flow, while overnight temperatures will be above normal. Humidity levels will remain uncomfortable with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
Small Craft Advisory continues for the ocean waters, with 10-ft seas at the coastal buoys and gusts to near 25 KT overnight into Monday.
Winds may increase slightly overnight on the ocean, with some gusts up to 25 kt as well, and could again approach 25 kt on the Great South Bay Monday late morning and afternoon.
Prolonged, steady onshore flow should allow ocean seas to continue at or above 5 ft into late week. Additionally, a period of SCA-level gusts may be possible on all waters Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure to the east, and low pressure to the west
An unsettled period of weather continues into late week, with several inches of rainfall possible. The main threat will be minor urban and poor draining flooding, though isolated flash flooding may be possible in any heavier showers and thunderstorms that develop
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk from 6am EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.