Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight.|
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Occasional Gusts Up To 35 Kt Late. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1244pm EST Monday Nov 11 2019
A weak front remains nearly stationary north of the area today. Low pressure crosses the area on Tuesday, dragging a strong cold front through the region. High pressure will build across the area Wednesday and pass offshore on Thursday as a weak warm front passes through. This will be followed up by another cold frontal passage Friday night, followed by another area of high pressure. Low pressure may impact the area by late weekend or early next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Few clouds and increased low level warm advection has allowed for temperatures across the coastal area to rise quickly into the mid and upper 50s, and even to 60. Dew points have also risen along the coast and into southern Connecticut with a southerly flow. Updated for current conditions.
A weak front will remain nearly stationary just north of the area today. Farther west, a surface low develops along this boundary over the Ohio Valley this afternoon and begins moving northeast as a trough digs into the Great Lakes.
With the boundary located north of the local area, expect a good deal of cloud cover across the Lower Hudson Valley into southern Connecticut for at least the first half of the day. Farther south, more sunshine is expected, especially by afternoon. Temperatures will range from around 50 well inland to near 60 across New York City and Long Island.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Tuesday
The surface low over the Ohio Valley continues to gradually strengthen as it approaches overnight, tracking through the Lower Hudson Valley early Tuesday morning. The low then continues moving northeast into New England, dragging a strong cold front through the area by Tuesday afternoon.
With precipitation confined to the west side of the low, expect the entire region to remain dry through at least midnight. Precipitation then overspreads the area from west to east during the early morning hours in association with the cold front. With southerly flow ahead of the front, temperatures will remain above freezing through much of the overnight period. With this in mind, expect precipitation to begin as rain across the vast majority of the area, with the exception of far northwestern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures then fall rapidly in the wake of the front, allowing for a transition to snow or a rain/snow mix as precipitation exits, especially north and west of New York City.
The best chances for an accumulating snowfall will be across the Lower Hudson Valley, interior portions of southern Connecticut, and far western portions of northeast New Jersey where cold air will arrive the earliest. Even here, accumulations are generally expected to be an inch or less, with a few totals approaching 2 inches possible at higher elevations. Across New York City, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut, precipitation will fall predominantly as rain before briefly mixing with or changing to snow before ending. No accumulation is expected.
After early highs ranging from the upper 30s north and west to the mid to upper 40s along the coast, temperatures will fall into the 30s by sunset. At the same time, winds will increase in the wake of the front, with gusty northwest flow resulting in wind chill values in the mid 20s to around 30 by afternoon.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The long term period starts off with an early season arctic airmass moving into the region resulting in record breaking cold Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Both highs and lows will be around 20 degrees below normal with the possibility that temperatures do not get above freezing Wednesday afternoon. This is due to a high amplified upper flow with ridging across the west coast extending northward into Alaska with deep-layered northwest flow feeding into the mean trough across eastern North America. The upper level low associated with the pool of arctic air will lift into eastern Canada Wednesday, so this will be a quick shot of cold air.
High pressure will then build across the area Wednesday night and offshore on Thursday. A weak warm front will move across the region late Thursday. the 00z forecast guidance was drier with the passage of the front, so will go with a dry forecast at this time.
Another cold frontal passage follows for the end of the week, but the airmass this time wont be as cold as what we see in the middle of the week. High pressure builds in behind the front for Saturday. Low pressure may impact the region late in the weekend or early next week.
Made some minor adjustments to the wind gusts and ocean seas, both of which were a little higher than currently forecast.
After tranquil conditions on the waters during the day today, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will quickly develop Monday night as southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas build to 5-6 feet. Winds then shift to the northwest in the wake of the front on Tuesday, with gusts 25-30 kt, possibly up to 35 kt late in the period.
Winds continue to increase Tuesday night behind a cold frontal passage. Expect gale conditions in all waters as winds gusts to 35-40kt on strong cold air advection.
Winds will gradually subside on Wednesday, however the gales may need to be extended into Wednesday morning for the ocean and possibly the eastern sound and bays. High pressure then builds in from the west with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure departs to the east Thursday with a cold front approaching on Friday. West winds will gradually strengthen ahead of the front.
No hydrologic impacts expected through the period.
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 12TH TEMP | YEAR NYC| 26 | 1926 JFK| 29 | 2017 LGA| 32 | 2013 EWR| 28 | 2017 ISP| 25 | 2001 BDR| 28 | 1957, 2013
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13TH TEMP | YEAR NYC| 33 | 1911 JFK| 41 | 2013 LGA| 39 | 1977 EWR| 41 | 2013 ISP| 39 | 2013 BDR| 38 | 1995
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 13TH TEMP | YEAR NYC| 24 | 1986 JFK| 25 | 1986 LGA| 26 | 1986 EWR| 24 | 1986 ISP| 24 | 2001 BDR| 23 | 1986
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.