Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft. Rain This Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu...W Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
622am EST Sunday Nov 27 2022
A frontal system approaches today and moves across the area this evening. A second cold front move across the area early Monday, followed by high pressure building in later in the day Monday. The high remains in control through Tuesday night. The next frontal system impacts the area Wednesday and Wednesday night before high pressure returns for the end of next week. Another frontal system may approach next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Other than a few minor adjustments made to reflect current observations, the forecast remains on track. The morning starts off dry as high pressure continues to slide east. Low pressure and its associated frontal boundary approach from the west. Rain will start to overspread the region starting around 15z and will continue through the day. The rain starts off light, but will pick up in intensity during the afternoon, with periods of moderate rainfall expected. Can not rule out some heavier downpours either as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) approach 1.4 to 1.5 inches between 18z and 00z. In addition, forecast soundings continue to show a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE around the same time and thunder can not be completely ruled out. However, due to low confidence in occurrence will continue to keep out of the forecast. This system is progressive and moves out of the area fairly quickly, with most of the precipitation ending between 03-06z. Rainfall totals will average between 0.75 - 1.00 inches.
The area dries out completely by 06z and clearing skies from west to east.
Highs today will be above average with a warm southerly flow. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s are expected across Long Island and the NYC metro area. Low to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s to near 50.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
As low pressure departs New England on Monday, and high pressure builds to our west, the region will remain under a fairly tight pressure gradient. Expect a gusty NW flow with gusts 20-25 mph. Can not rule out a few higher gusts, especially earlier in the morning and closer to the coast. The gradient finally starts to relax towards evening as the high starts to build overhead. This high will remain over the region on Tuesday, with dry conditions expected through the entire short term period.
Highs on Monday will be int he lower and middle 50s, while highs on Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the middle and upper 40s to near 50. Clear skies and light winds Monday night will result in good radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s for most of the area. The only exception will be NYC where lows will be in the middle 30s.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
No significant changes in the long term. Only change was to bump up winds a tad Wednesday night into Thursday with the next system. Otherwise, The global deterministic models and ensemble means continue to be in good agreement on the overall pattern evolution through the end of next week.
Attention turns to an amplifying upper trough over the Plains Tuesday night. Ridging over the eastern seaboard shifts offshore through Wednesday as the trough continues to amplify and approach the eastern states. Deepening low pressure lifts over the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada on Wednesday, dragging a strong cold front towards the region through the day.
There is general agreement on most of the showers with the system occurring Wednesday afternoon and evening. The associated warm front lifts north initially, supporting the showers in the afternoon. The main cold front quickly follows in the evening with potential of a more organized line of showers. Have increased PoPs, but still a bit lower than the NBM. The system does bring potential for a period of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. However, the NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain in any six hour period Wednesday afternoon and evening are still less than 5 percent. The system is progressive which should help limit the duration of any moderate to locally heavy rain.
The next concern late Wednesday into Wednesday night is strong, gusty winds. Southerly flow ahead of the system likely increases winds through the day, but the stronger winds may hold off until Wednesday night immediately ahead of the front and then again behind the frontal passage. The pressure gradient behind the front is quite steep owing to a large pressure difference between the primary low over southeast Canada and sprawling high pressure over the central states. The modeling differs on the intensity of the primary low, which will impact the pressure gradient and boundary layer winds. Despite these differences, there is potential for gusts 35-40 mph Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Gusty winds continue into Thursday as the low departs and high builds towards the region. Warm advection ahead of the cold front Wednesday could push temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Temperatures then fall back to slightly below normal levels on Thursday in the 40s.
High pressure should remain in control to end next week with near to slightly below normal temperatures. Another frontal system may approach next weekend, but it is much too early for any confidence in its strength and timing.
Conditions will gradually build back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on all the area waters today as an frontal system approaches the waters.
Winds peak this evening and have converted the gale watch to a gale warning for the Ocean zones. The gale will run from 21z through 11z, however it is likely that the gales will end prior to 11z, and the headline can be converted back to an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) earlier. For the non ocean waters, an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in effect from 20z through tonight. A few occasional gusts to gale force can not be ruled out, especially on the south shore bays and the far eastern waters. Peak winds across the ocean will gust up to 34-37 kt and across non ocean waters up to 25-30 kt. Waves on the ocean will reach 8-10 ft tonight.
Gusty NW winds and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue on Monday on all waters. Winds and seas subside Monday night below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels with the exception of lingering seas near 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet. Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A strengthening S flow is likely on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which will bring a return to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, especially in the afternoon and evening. It is also starting to look more likely that gales develop once again Wednesday night with the frontal passage and then post-frontal. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely to continue on Thursday as high pressure builds towards the waters.
There will be periods of moderate rainfall this afternoon through the evening, but no hydrologic impacts anticipated. Total rainfall amounts will be between 0.75 and 1.0 inches.
No hydrologic impacts expected with showers accompanying a strong frontal system late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
While tides are still running high from the recent new moon, forecast surge values have come down from previous forecast. Total water level forecasts now are expected to fall short of minor coastal flood benchmarks at all tidal gauges with high tide this morning. A few tidal gauges along the South Shore Bays such as East Rockaway and Reynolds Channel could get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during their high tides this morning but are forecast to stay 0.1 to 0.2 ft below the minor benchmarks. No coastal flood statements are planned at this time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 3pm this afternoon to 6am EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353. Gale Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 6am EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 4pm EST this afternoon for ANZ355.