Marine Weather Net

Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ331 Forecast Issued: 402 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon.
Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Evening.
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds, Becoming Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Tstms Likely. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Mon...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.
Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
223am EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Synopsis
A cold front to the north of the region, slowly retreats back north as a warm front this weekend. A cold front approaches late Sunday, moving across Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday. Another frontal system will approach on Wednesday and move slowly across from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. High pressure will return for Thursday night into Friday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8am THIS MORNING/... Region remains on NE edge of southern ridging, with subtle convectively induced vorts moving through flow. A cold front over central New England sinks south towards the region this eve, likely stalling just north of the forecast area late in the day into night.

Much of the area is now dry, with a cluster of showers/weak thunderstorms moving into the Lower Hudson Valley. This activity is expected to continue to weaken as it moves eastward. Otherwise, very warm and muggy conditions overnight, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /8am THIS MORNING THROUGH 6pm SUNDAY/... Upper ridge continues to sink south through the weekend, with deep layer flow aloft backing from W to SW. At the surface, cold front retreats north tonight and remains fairly stationary across central and SE New England through the weekend.

Heat continues to build through the weekend, with 850mb temps rising into the upper teens on Sat and 20-21C on Sun. Gusty SW flow and deep mixing will have surface temps similarly increasing each day away from the coast. High in the mid to upper 90s likely for NE NJ, NW NYC, and surrounding portions of LoHuD, with widespread upper 80s to lower 90s for remainder of the area. A strengthening S/SW flow will limit south coastal LI and SE CT in the lower to mid 80s each day. High temperatures on Sunday could touch or break daily records across NYC/NJ metro.

850mb TDs climb slightly Sat into Sunday as well, indicating a slight upward trends in surface Td's as well, but still likely some Td mixout in the afternoon during peak heating. This expands the threat for 95 to 100 heat index into northern New London/Middlesex and NW LI for the weekend, continuing from today. Isolated 105 HI possible for NE NJ and immediate surroundings Sat and Sun, but too low coverage/confidence for upgrade to excessive heat at this time. T/Td trends will be monitored thru the weekend for possible upgrade. Blend of deterministic NBM and HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) for T and Td seems to be verifying well.

Focus for thunderstorms Sat aft/eve looks less clear than today as warm front pushes farther north into northern New England. Isolated convective initiation possible along sea- breeze and off higher terrain to the NW (drifting east) in moderate to strong instability but still weak shear/mid level lapse rate environment. More widespread convective development possible along backdoor cold front moving westward across SE New England, but this appears to stall east of the area, but could clip far SE CT. For now, have capped probability of precipitation at high chance for interior, to slight/low chance for the coast, based on the above. Isolated wet microburst potential with any convective development along and north of these boundaries in moderate to strong instability and weak shear/mid-level lapse rate environment.

A seemingly better chance for organized convection late Sunday into Sunday Eve with lead shortwave ahead of digging Great Lakes shortwave and pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. This approaching system will strengthen wind fields and deep layer shear over the region, likely promoting better organizing of upstream convection and longer lived updrafts. Question is timing of this convection into our area. Moderate to strong instability is likely once again across NYC and pts N&W Sunday afternoon, but late day/evening timing of convection would not maximize potential. Marginal severe threat from Storm Prediction Center looks reasonable based on mismatch between shear/and peak instability timing, and strong synoptic S/SW flow disrupting any clear focus outside of elevation.

Low and localized flash flood threat both days with isolate to scattered convective coverage on Sat, and likely better forward progression of convection on Sunday.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Friday
Key Points:

* Heat wave comes to an end Sunday night-Monday with a cold frontal passage.

* One more hot day expected ahead of another frontal system on Wednesday.

* A slow moving frontal system could bring locally heavy rainfall from late Wednesday into Thursday.

NBM was generally followed, with some adjustments mainly to to temperatures and dewpoints per 12Z GFS (Global Forecast System) and 00Z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) guidance.

The heat wave should come to an end as an upper trough/closed low and associated cold front approach the area Sunday night into Monday. A few thunderstorms with gusty winds possible Sunday evening via pre- frontal deep layer unidirectional shear (mid layer SW-W flow 35-50 kt) and leftover steep lapse rates from daytime heat. Brief heavy rain could also be possible with any storms.

Front clears the area daytime Mon, with any 90-plus temps shunted just south into central NJ, and heat index values close to actual temps.

Tuesday should be a bit warmer with high pressure and downslope W-NW flow in control. High temps will range from 85-90 in most places, with similar heat index values as afternoon dewpoints should be no higher than the upper 50s/lower 60s. Wednesday will be a little warmer and more humid still, with high temps 90-95 from NYC north/west and the heat index approaching or just surpassing 95 for one day as afternoon dewpoints increase to the lower/mid 60s.

A slow moving frontal system should bring an end to this shorter spell of heat, with chances for thunderstorms from late day Wednesday into Thu. More on this in the Hydrology section.

Locally heavy rainfall possible with PW approaching 2 inches and some potential for training cells along the slow moving frontal boundary. Attm Fri looks dry with temps near or just above the seasonal avg.

Marine
Conditions will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through at least Saturday. Marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions possible for ocean waters leading to NY Harbor and surrounding near-shore waters with afternoon coastal jet development and seas of 3 to 5ft.

Higher confidence in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for winds and seas on the ocean water Saturday Night into Sunday as S-SW flow strengthens. Gusts up to 30kt possible Sunday aft. Nearshore non- ocean waters may see advisory gusts conditions as well Sunday aft.

SW flow 20-25 kt on the ocean with a few higher gusts to 30 kt Sunday night will maintain significant wave heigheights of 6-8 ft during that time frame, lowering only to 5-7 ft daytime Monday as SW flow 15 kt continues. These seas should then gradually diminish below 5 ft Monday night as a cold front passes and winds shift offshore.

Conditions fall below small craft late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Hydrology
Isolated thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours that could lead to brief nuisance flooding, but the threat for more significant flooding this evening has ended.

Low and localized flash flood threat on Saturday with any slow moving isolated to scattered tstm activity across interior.

Low flash flood threat late Sunday into Sunday Night with possible scattered convection development along/ahead of pre- frontal trough/cold frontal passage.

Another chance for locally heavy rain may come from late Wednesday into Thu with another frontal system. PW again increases close to 2 inches and deep layer SW flow could favor training of cells, but this remains inherently uncertain 5-6 days out.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
A moderate rip current risk should continue at the ocean beaches on Saturday via combo of 3-ft SW wind waves and 2-ft long period SE swell. A high risk is likely for Sunday as S-SW flow increases to 20- 25 kt and 5-ft S wind waves increase to 6-8 ft in the afternoon.

Will only mention the high risk in the SRF and HWO and hold off on rip current statement issuance, to avoid any confusion with the moderate risk for Saturday.

Climate
Here are current record high temperatures thru Sunday... Saturday, June 22:

NYC: 98(1988) LGA: 99(1988) JFK: 94(2012) EWR: 101(1988) ISP: 94(2012) BDR: 93(1949)

Sunday, June 23

NYC: 96(1888) LGA: 95(1965) JFK: 94(2010) EWR: 97(1965) ISP: 91(1999) BDR: 91(2010)

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for CTZ005>009. NY...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8pm EDT Sunday for NYZ078- 177. NJ...
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.

Marine
None.