Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Overnight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Occasional Rain Late This Evening, Then Occasional Rain And Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Occasional Rain And Drizzle In The Morning, Then Light Rain And Drizzle In The Afternoon. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Areas Of Fog In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Light Rain And Drizzle In The Evening. Areas Of Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
918pm EDT Sat Mar 28 2020
A warm front will continue to approach from the south overnight, stalling just south of Long Island Sunday morning. Weak low pressure and a trailing cold front will then move across the area Sunday night. Low pressure over the western Great Lakes and New England weakens Monday into Tuesday. Another low will pass well south and east during the middle of the week, followed by high pressure to close out the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Occasional rain will continue tonight as a warm front slowly approaches from the south. A closed upper low will track toward the Great Lakes tonight, while a high amplitude ridge will work off the eastern seaboard. This will place the area under prolonged period of large scale warm advection. The low levels are becoming saturated as noted by lowering ceilings and visibilities.
Much of the dynamics are displaced well west of the area, there is decent thermal forcing through the overnight as a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ works across the area. While widespread rain may diminish overnight, there is enough low level moisture to continue a high probability of measurable rain. This will likely come in the form of intermittent light rain and drizzle.
East winds will strengthen through tonight with the potential for gusts up to 25 mph, mainly near the coast.
Lows will remain well above normal, generally in the mid 40s.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Sunday Night
Warm front stalls just south of Long Island on Sunday with occasional rain and drizzle through most of the day. Gusty east winds along the coast in the morning will diminish through the afternoon. A frontal wave will then approach from the west in the afternoon. While there is marginal elevated instability in the afternoon with height falls aloft, there is no surface based instability and the forcing is week. There could be a brief shower in the evening hours as a weak cold front passes through the area, otherwise any light rain and/or drizzle will taper off during the evening hours.
Highs Sunday will be around 50, with lows again the 40s.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
Stacked low pressure over the western Great Lakes region will track southeast into northern and central New York Monday morning into Tuesday morning, weakening as it does so. Associated cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft will lead to some instability, while at the surface, an inverted trough will be in place. This will allow enough instability and lift for some light showers through the period, though exactly where they will be is still uncertain. However, highest chances would be for areas closest to the stacked low, which would be for more northern portions of the forecast area. Best chances for showers would be Monday afternoon into the first part of Monday night.
Mainly dry conditions are then forecast Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week. However, there will be chances for passing showers as a coastal low passes well south and east late Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly across western and southern sections.
As the storm intensifies and expands well east of the region Thursday night, the western edge of the precipitation field will move westward toward our area. Some vorticity maxima may move through aloft, as well as spokes of surface troughs rotating around the low which will aid in the possibility for showers, but right now, looks to only be a slight chance for extreme eastern areas.
Thereafter, dry conditions are forecast through the end of the week with high pressure building in.
Other than some above normal temperatures for Monday, seasonable temperatures are expected through the week.
East winds will continue to gradually strengthen through the with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing across all waters with gusts 25 to 30 kt. Seas will build to 5 to 8 ft on the ocean and 2 to 4 ft on the sound, possibly as high as 5 ft in spots. Winds will diminish from west to east on Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. However, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas are expected to linger on the ocean waters through Sunday night.
Waves on the ocean waters will remain around 5 ft Monday, diminishing slowly through the day, falling below 5 ft early Monday night. Thereafter, light winds will lend to sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) waves.
A coastal storm will pass well south and east of the region in the middle of the week, however it will pass far enough south to allow winds to remain below 25 kt through the forecast period.
Rainfall amounts through Sunday evening will range from 0.50 to 0.75 inches. This will be falling over a long period of time, so no hydrologic impacts are expected with this system. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the coming week.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for ANZ330-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.