Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt Early. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1247am EST Monday Jan 20 2020
Low pressure moves farther away from the local region overnight, going through Newfoundland. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure area will continue to build in from the North Central US. This high will continue to gradually build in much of this week. The high pressure area weakens Thursday night into Friday with low pressure approaching into next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
A vigorous vort axis and weak surface trough slide through southern New England through midnight, with mostly cloudy skies and few light snow showers or snow flurries. Expect mostly clear skies overnight after passage of this feature, and continued caa.
With winds staying up most of overnight, temps will run from the mid teens inland to the lower 20s along the coast and in the metro area. Minimum wind chills will reach 10 above in NYC, single digits most elsewhere, and near zero well inland N-NW of the city.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
Gusty N flow will continue into Monday as another mid level vort max swings by. Temps will be below normal especially at night, with highs on Monday from the upper 20s inland to lower 30s coast/metro, then lows Monday night from the single digits inland to the teens most elsewhere to lower 20s only in NYC. Wind chills daytime Monday will be about 10 degrees colder than air temps, then during Monday night fall to near 10 above in NYC, single digits elsewhere in metro/coastal sections, and near zero across most of the interior.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Quiet for much of the period with the influence of high pressure until next weekend with a high moving farther northward and approaching low pressure from the south.
For Tuesday and going through Thursday, an air mass from the North Central US will be building into the region. Strong high pressure builds in gradually from the west Tuesday through Wednesday, moving overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. This will make for light and variable winds with the very weak pressure gradient. The high weakens Thursday night into Friday allowing for more clouds to move into the region as subsidence weakens.
Dry weather is expected through Friday. Next chances for precipitation arrive Friday night with increasing chances of precipitation for next weekend.
Next weekend, forecast has gusty E-NE flow and some potential heavy precip. Track of low center moves near region, either directly over the region or offshore. A lot of uncertainty with this event being a week away especially with the speed and position of the low center. Precip type will be highly dependent on track. Overall looking at the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian models, the center of the low could track close enough to have some warming aloft. The retreating high going farther northward signals some cold air damming potential so with temperatures at 850mb getting potentially a few degrees C above freezing, could have a wintry mix Friday night into early Saturday changing to rain Saturday from south to north. Depending on how the low evolves next weekend, could have some wintry precipitation as well as Saturday night into Sunday. Have this as a rain and snow mix across the interior with a forecast of having the low move east of the area with colder air working into the area on the backside of the low.
Regarding temperatures, the air mass for Tuesday through Wednesday will be from the North Central states. Winds will be northerly but gradually decreasing as the center of the high moves in closer to the local area. The decrease of northerly winds will gradually lessen the cold air advection allowing for the air mass to moderate by midweek. Conveyed a gradual warmup for daytime highs each day Tuesday through Thursday going from several degrees below normal to several degrees above normal. There is more weight towards MOS for all temperatures Tuesday through Tuesday night as well as Wednesday night and Thursday night. The nighttime temperature use more MOS to convey radiational cooling conditions with more vast range of lows between NYC and rural sections.
The waters will remain in a gusty NW-N flow regime into Monday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for all waters, through Monday afternoon for NY Harbor, and into early Monday eve for the eastern ocean waters where 5-ft seas may linger a little longer.
A weak pressure gradient in place across the area waters with below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Tuesday through Friday. Conditions trend upward for winds and seas Friday night as low pressure approaches from the south and west and the pressure gradient increases between the low and the retreating high well north of the region. Marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas develop on the ocean Friday night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) becomes more likely for most of the waters on Saturday as the low pressure system approaches closer and deepens slightly with a further increase of the pressure gradient.
There is potential for widespread precipitation next weekend. Still it is too soon to tell what exact hydrologic impacts there will be due to uncertainty with precipitation types and amounts.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ338- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ330- 335-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353.