Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Patchy Smoke Until Late Afternoon, Then Areas Of Smoke Late. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke In The Evening, Then Smoke After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Smoke In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds, Becoming Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 558am EDT Thu July 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm added along the coast for late this afternoon into early evening. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wildfire smoke will continue to reduce visibilities and air quality through at least this evening. 2) Showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday and Saturday night, with more unsettled weather possible early next week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... The area remains situated between ridging to the south and troughing to the north, with steering flow from the northwest. This setup will allow wildfire smoke originating from Ontario to continue to flow south and east over the region today. This is likely to result in widespread haze, and as the plume mixes down to the surface, lead to reduced visibilities (2 to 5 sm) at times, as well as a decline in air quality. Air Quality Alerts have been issued by respective state agencies for our entire area today. Hi res dispersion modeling from the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) and REFS indicates near surface concentrations peak late today and this evening before a more northerly component to the winds is able to push highest concentrations south by Friday morning. Confidence in the evolution of the smoke plume decreases after tonight though given the chaotic nature of wildfire smoke transport, as well as limitations in the temporal range of related guidance. While the smoke is not likely to be as concentrated locally on Friday, conditions and trends will need to be monitored. In addition, though the background thermal environment would otherwise suggest another relatively hot day, the reduction in solar insolation could result in somewhat muted temperatures this afternoon. In collaboration with neighbors, opted to lower forecast highs several degrees from blended guidance, generally in the 80s for most, or low 90s in the urban metro. Drier air at the surface, dew pts now near 60, should mitigate the mugginess compared to previous days. Cannot entirely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm, particularly along the coast, late this afternoon or early this evening, though coverage looks widely isolated should it occur. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Conditions turn more unsettled into the weekend and early next week. The next shortwave digs down into the Great Lakes late this week, swinging around troughing associated with persistent upper low pressure over eastern Canada. The picture is becoming clearer that Saturday will be the wetter of the two days this weekend, as the frontal system associated with the shortwave moves through the Northeast. Though unlikely to be an all day washout, conditions appear favorable for showers and possible thunderstorm development at times that could extend into at least Saturday night. A few storms could become strong to severe, and Storm Prediction Center added a marginal risk (1/5) for most of the area on Sat. Overall Quantitative Precipitation Forecast averages between a half inch to one inch this weekend, mainly Sat and Sat night, but locally higher amounts are likely. WPC continues to highlight the entire area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with CSU's MLP offering a slightly higher risk, signaling potential for localized flood concerns. Modeled PWATs (Precipitable Waters) rise to around or above 2 inches in southwest flow, and while the flow looks progressive enough to mitigate a more widespread flood concern, the abundantly moist air mass and deep warm cloud depths could allow for a localized flood threat in convective maxima. Conditions briefly improve by later Sunday as the low pressure system shifts north and east and high pressure returns from the northwest. Rain chances increase once again by Tuesday as another shortwave in the flow looks to move through. Heading into the climatologically warmest period of the year, temperatures through early next week remain near climo, with most afternoons topping out in the low to mid 80s. Marine Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Friday with relatively light winds and seas. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions then appear likely on at least the coastal ocean waters late afternoon Saturday, with southerly gusts up to 25 kt developing. These conditions should continue into Sat night E of Fire Island Inlet while seas also build to 5 ft. The hazardous seas could linger into Sunday before lowering. Rip Currents A moderate rip current risk is place today and Friday, as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to those on Wednesday. Both days feature some onshore flow, with SW flow 10-15 kt today and S around 10 kt on Friday. SW swells gradually lower to 2 ft (5-6 sec periods) during this time. Outlook: A high rip current risk appears likely for for late day Sat as S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with seas building to 4-5 ft and water levels ebbing toward a late afternoon low tide. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT... Air Quality Alert until noon EDT today for CTZ005>012. NY... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Marine None. |
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