Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1037pm EDT Wednesday September 19 2018
Synopsis: High pressure builds down from the Canadian Maritime Provinces through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday night, followed by a cold front crossing the Tri-State late Friday night into Saturday morning. The front settles just to the south into early next week as strong high pressure builds to the north. A slow moving frontal system will move towards the region the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
A weak low level inversion remains with stratus into northeastern NJ. The stratus is expected to remain in place through the overnight as the high builds slowly southward and the low level inversion remains in place. With the cloud cover and persistent easterly flow, both the dew points and temperatures, especially in the highly urbanized areas, have not been falling as quickly as forecast. Adjusted hourlies upward, along with the overnight lows
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
Thursday morning will start off with cloudy or mostly cloudy skies as stratus remains over the region. The cloud should start to dissipate by mid morning as drier air moves into the region, however we could still be looking at a partly cloudy day, especially across the western half of the region as high clouds start moving into the region as a cold front approaches from the west.
As a cold front approaches Thursday night, clouds will once a again increase. Despite the cloud cover will go with a dry forecast through the short term, thinking that any precipitation will hold off til Friday.
Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the lower and middle 70s, while lows Thursday night fall into the 50s and 60s. Forecast guidance was in good agreement with temperatures and used a blend of the MAV/MET and ECS.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean Beaches through Thursday
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Generally a zonal upper flow expected through early next week between Southeastern US ridging transitioning to Bermuda ridging, and a Hudson Bay upper low sliding into Eastern Canada. Good agreement between models in a PAC shortwave rotating through this flow through the Great Lakes on Friday and then the Northeast US Friday night.
At the surface, decent agreement with a frontal system approaching the region on Friday in response to this shortwave. Instability and winds fields suggest an organized line of convection developing across Western NY/PA and tracking eastward in the afternoon. Timing of lagging shortwave forcing/front indicate that this line would not make it into the region till the overnight hours. With waning instability and lagging forcing, it is questionable how far eastward into the region any strong to damaging wind threat would maintain as strong shear/wind could lead to an outflow dominant transition. At this point, areas N&W of NYC would have a marginal risk for some strong to damaging winds gusts if this line arrives in the evening, with a diminishing threat as it approaches the deepening stable layer near the coast.
Thereafter, a fall type airmass likely for the weekend into early next week as the cold front settles just to the south and Canadian high pressure builds into New England. With close proximity to stalled boundary and under periphery of the ridge/upper jet, could be looking at mid and high clouds streaming across the region through the weekend. Perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers possible across southern portions of the Tri-state if the boundary stalls close enough, but otherwise dry. Then a gradually increasing chance for stratus and shower development Monday or Monday night with approach of the next frontal system.
Then a good signal for a return to a moist tropical environment for mid to late week as troughing begins to amplify into the Central US, and Bermuda ridging remains stubborn. A slow approaching frontal system will bring potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the interior, during this time along with a warm and unseasonably humid airmass.
Ocean seas have built up to Small Craft Advisory levels to Fire Island Inlet and will continue to build westward overnight with an east flow. Wind gusts were increasing however, gusts remained below SCA levels, and uncertain if gusts will reach Small Craft Advisory levels overnight. Will be marginal especially the western ocean zones where low level winds are lower. No changes at this time to winds and seas.
A Small Craft Advisory will remain up for all the ocean zones.
On Thursday, the seas around 5 ft should continue on the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. I am not confidence we see the 5 ft seas on the remaining ocean waters to have the Small Craft Advisory up at this time. Seas will remain around 4 ft through Thursday night.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the non-ocean waters through Thursday, and on all waters Thursday night.
A tightening S/SW pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to produce Small Craft Advisory conds on most of the local waters late Fri/Fri night. Winds should diminish by Sat morning, although Small Craft Advisory swells on the ocean will likely linger into Saturday morning.
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected to return for all waters through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.
Easterly winds likely strengthen Monday into Monday Night ahead of an approaching warm front, with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop on the ocean
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.
There is potential for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Thursday for ANZ350.