Marine Weather Net

Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ331 Forecast Issued: 1037 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft After Midnight.
Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Thu...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight.
Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1105pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure shifts through tonight, otherwise weak high pressure will be in control through Tuesday night. A series of cold fronts then pushes through mid week. High pressure will be over the area Thursday night into Friday. An offshore low may scrape the area Saturday, followed by high pressure building north of the area later in the weekend and early next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Increased clouds with otherwise no other significant changes made to the forecast database. Forecast remains on track.

With one trough of low pressure offshore, another trough is expected to move through late tonight. Not enough moisture with either trough for showers, so remaining dry tonight. It'll be somewhat breezy however as we remain in between low pressure meandering over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure trying to build in from the SW, leaving us with a relatively tight pressure gradient. Low temperatures will be near normal, mostly in the lower and middle 30s and feeling 5 to 10 degrees colder at times factoring in the wind.

.SHORT TERM /6am TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak high pressure remains over the area during this period with a zonal flow aloft for most of the time. Continued dry, and after a mostly sunny start, clouds increase Tuesday afternoon with mid level moisture increasing with the approach of a shortwave. Still somewhat breezy on Tuesday with highs 45-50. Winds back from W to SW Tuesday night as they diminish. Low temperatures therefore not as cold as tonight.

Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Monday
Blustery and cool late Wednesday into Thu, and again Sunday into Mon

A piece of the polar vortex, more of a PV split per say takes shape across Southern Canada this week. This will result in our region being under the influence of this PV split and getting into cP air masses for duration of this week as a couple of cold fronts / reinforcing surface troughs pivot through the area. Blustery and cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the cold frontal passages late Wednesday into Thu. Some wind chills are expected to get into the upper teens and lower 20s Thu morning.

A southern branch feature will attempt to merge with pacific branch energy Fri and Fr night in the SE states. This may result in enough energy getting bundled to bring low pressure into or very close to the area for the start of the weekend. However, there is a good share of the global deterministic guidance that keeps the energy more separate, and thus model solutions with the low remaining mainly offshore. Thus, leaned more towards a consensus solution regarding Probability of Precipitation and thus was fairly close to the NBM with only some minor adjustments. If precipitation does get into the CWA (County Warning Area) this weekend the mostly likely time frame would be Fri night into the first half of Saturday from mainly the primary low off to the west. A light wintry mix is possible across far northern and interior sections, but any precipitation is expected to be very light. If the coastal low did get closer to the area than consensus, then the likelihood of precipitation would increase for the entire day Sat and Sat night, but this does not appear as likely at this point.

As low pressure gets offshore later in the weekend and high pressure builds north of the area Sunday into Monday the pressure gradient should increase. This will result in blustery and cool conditions to begin next week.

Marine
Winds increase a little tonight as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. Looks like 25kt gusts will be widespread and frequent enough to add the non-ocean waters to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at least for Tuesday. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt however tonight. Otherwise, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains on the ocean for both winds and seas tonight and Tuesday. The advisory here is now extended through 06z Wednesday with still some gusts reaching criteria in the evening, and a westerly fetch long enough to maintain seas up to 5 ft as well. The advisory on the ocean might need to be extended even more eventually.

Small craft conditions will become increasingly likely for the ocean, and for at least the western near shore zones Wednesday. All of the coastal waters should have small craft winds by Wednesday night behind a cold frontal passage. Gales are even a possibility on the ocean and the nearshore waters late Wednesday night and into a portion of Thursday. High pressure should build to the north with the pressure gradient weakening and the return of sub small craft conditions from west to east late Thursday and Thursday night. During Friday the winds will switch around to a more southerly direction, with small craft conditions possibly returning at some point in the weekend.

Fire Weather
Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with minimum relativity values averaging around 30 percent and gusts 20-25 mph. Coordination with state partners is ongoing, and it is possible that a Special Weather Statement is issued for at least southern Connecticut to address elevated fire weather concerns during Tuesday, particularly in the afternoon.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.