Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain And Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain, Mainly In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
950pm EST Tuesday Nov 13 2018
Synopsis: Strong high pressure will build in from the west through Wednesday night. The high will then retreat northeast from New England into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night as intensifying low pressure moves up the coast. The low will pass through on Friday, and then head northeast past the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday as high pressure builds to the south and west. A cold front will pass through on Sunday, followed by another frontal system Sunday night into Monday night.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
Only minor changes with this update to capture the latest observational trends. Plenty of clouds remain across the area, although some breaks are starting to develop.
High pressure builds in from the west tonight with a fairly tight pressure gradient in place over the region as low pressure deepens over the Canadian Maritimes. Breezy conditions will result, and with a strong jet streak not too far to our north, plenty of cirrus should remain into the late night hours after lower and mid clouds scour out in the evening. The combination of clouds and winds will prevent frost formation, so no frost advisories are planned at this time. Lows in the low to mid 30s across coastal sections and 25-30 inland
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Wednesday Night
Deep-layered ridging occurs on Wednesday with high pressure building in, then the high shifts towards New England Wednesday night with a continuation of dry weather and primarily cirrus streaming through from time to time. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably cold with both high and low temperatures averaging 10-15 colder than normal. Wind chills will still be as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s even during the warmest part of the day. Most guidance shows lows in NYC in the upper 20s or around 30, so will issue a Freeze Watch for the remaining boroughs where the growing season has not yet ended. Lows otherwise range downward into the teens across the northern suburbs and the Pine Barrens Region
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
Main focus remains with the retreating high and approaching coastal storm Thursday into Friday. Big picture remains much the same as with the previous forecast, as a mid 1030s high retreats NE, and as an upper low moving across the OH/TN valleys spins up surface low pressure along the SE coast, which then heads up the coast to a position along the Jersey Shore by 12Z Fri. The front end of the storm holds the greatest concern as far as wintry wx, as CAD via the retreating high continues to supply cold air, with snow likely all the way down to the coast on Thu, perhaps an inch or two for western Long Island, NYC metro, and coastal CT before precipitation changes to rain by Thu evening. A more complex scenario likely farther inland, as surface temp remain aob freezing while warmer air moves in aloft on SE H8 flow, with primarily an advy level snowfall of 2-3 inches, changing to sleet and then freezing rain of less than 1/10 inch accretion during Thu night. Attm probabilistic guidance indicates only a 10-20 percent chance of higher snow/ice amts than currently fcst, with max potential for 5-7 inches of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice across the I-84 corridor in the lower Hudson Valley and CT, also extending down into W Passaic, and northern Rockland/Westchester.
Temps should warm enough during Fri morning to change precipitation to all rain except perhaps in the highest elevations north/west of NYC.
This storm is still a couple of days away, so track and timing changes are possible and could result in further changes to the fcst.
For the weekend, a cooling trend as another shot of cold air comes in for Sun. Another frontal system should pass through with chances
Small Craft Advisory remains on all waters tonight and Wednesday, although gusts on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet could get close to gale force at times tonight. The Small Craft Advisory might need to be extended by a few hours into Wednesday evening mainly on the ocean.
Winds and seas should start to ramp up on Thu between departing high pressure and approaching intensifying low pressure, with Small Craft Advisory conds initially on the ocean Thu afternoon, then easterly gales on the ocean and the far eastern Sound Thu night, and Small Craft Advisory conds elsewhere. Could also see NW gales on the ocean daytime Fri as the low departs. Lingering elevated ocean seas above 5 ft likely to continue into Fri night and possibly Sat morning
Liquid equivalent Quantitative Precipitation Forecast of 1-1.5 inches expected mainly from midday Thu til midday Fri. A good deal of this should fall as snow and then freezing rain across the interior. Nuisance ponding/urban flooding possible in the NYC metro area and across Long Island and coastal CT
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Tidal departures of 2 1/2 to 3 ft needed for minor coastal flooding during the times of high tide late Thu Night into Fri afternoon. There is potential for minor coastal impacts across normally vulnerable western Long Island Sound, NY Harbor, western Great South Bay, and Peconic Bay locales with the Thu night high tide, as easterly gales ramp up. Winds should shift NW heading into the Fri afternoon high tide, which would likely relegate potential minor impacts at that time to the Long Island south shore bays
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NYZ072-073-075-176-178. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Wednesday for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.