New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft This Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm This Afternoon.
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
|Mon Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.
|Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely.
| Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1140am EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Weak low pressure approaches from the south through this evening. The low then slowly moves east of the area through early Sunday morning followed by weak high pressure building in. High pressure will remain in control through at least Monday. A coastal low could then potentially approach from the south on Monday night. Multiple areas of low pressure along a frontal boundary move near the region mid to late week.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Mainly light rain continues to overspread the area from the southwest. More organized thermal forcing arrives this afternoon and will set up a localized area of frontogenesis. This will allow for some of the rain to become moderate at times.
The low may lift across southern portions of the area this evening before departing towards Cape Cod overnight. The rain should taper off from west to east the first half of tonight. The flow behind the low is weak and there could be some patchy fog in spots overnight.
Total rainfall amounts range from around a third of an inch northwest to around an inch across eastern Long Island.
Temperatures today will rise into the 40s for most spots and could touch low 50s this evening immediately ahead of the low. Temperatures tonight will be mild and above normal, generally in the 40s.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Monday Night
Dry conditions are likely on Sunday, with an upper level shortwave trough axis east of the area. The surface low will also continue moving away from the New England coast. Heigheights rise aloft and weak surface high pressure noses in from the north. High pressure looks to remain in control through at least Monday. Another weak low is forecast to approach from the south Monday night, which may bring another round of rain to the area.
Temperatures in the 50s are expected Sunday and Monday, with lows in the mid 40s.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
Upper level jet is displaced well north of the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Upper level jet streak develops farther south near the region Wednesday into Thursday with a subtropical jet moving north towards the area late in the week.
In the mid levels, local area is on the western side of ridge with two shortwaves passing by. These are accompanied by surface lows traversing near the area as well. Timeframe for the shortwaves and lows, Tuesday into Tuesday night and then Wednesday night through early Friday. The stronger low and shortwave with more dynamic forcing appear to be with the second one within the Wednesday night through early Friday timeframe.
Gusty easterly winds and rainfall forecast through much of the period will make for a maritime airmass to develop across the region. Temperatures overall are forecast to be above normal with less diurnal differences.
Have pushed up the start time of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the ocean to 4 pm as winds will be increasing to near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in stronger S flow.
A weak low pressure approaches this afternoon and moves over the waters this evening. The low passes east of the area overnight into Sunday morning. Winds will reach marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this afternoon on the ocean as S flow increases, This will continue for the first half of tonight. Ocean seas will build through this evening, mainly due to a longer period SE swell. These long period swells are likely to persist into Sunday. Winds on the waters will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late tonight through Sunday night. Ocean seas will slowly subside, falling below 5 ft sometime late Monday through Monday night.
Winds are forecast to be mostly below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) Tuesday until Wednesday night. That is when much of the ocean is forecast to have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level wind gusts. Concerning the seas, non-ocean waters are forecast to be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds but ocean waters are forecast to be in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range much of the time. Wavewatch indicates some contribution potentially from long period easterly swell.
Anywhere from 0.30-1.00" of rain, highest eastern Long Island and southeast CT, is expected from this morning through tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected today through Monday night.
Widespread rainfall forecast mid to late week. Heavy rain potential with potentially above climo precipitable waters moving in with each low. Still lots of uncertainty depending on track and timing of low to determine any specific impacts at this time beyond that of minor flooding in the poor drainage and low lying areas.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.