New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain After Midnight.|
|Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Flurries.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 953 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure builds in through Friday. Low pressure and its associated frontal system impacts the waters late Friday night into Saturday, with another frontal system moving through the waters Sunday into Monday. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1152pm EST Thu Feb 25 2021
High pressure builds in through morning and then offshore by afternoon. A frontal system impacts the area Friday night and Saturday. Another frontal system moves through the region Sunday into Monday. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday. Another frontal system may impact the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Based on latest observations, bumped up lows in most places by 2 to 3 degrees,
Winds continue to decrease this evening as a 1030 mb high over the Ohio Valley builds east. Mainly clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling overnight. Much of the snow is gone for LI and NYC, with more elsewhere. Lows will range from the lower 20s inland, to the lower 30s across the NYC metro.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
Strong subsidence on Fri so sunny skies can be expected. Winds light with the high building right over the cwa. The NBM was used for temps which was a few degrees below climo.
The high builds offshore Fri night with a warm front passing n of the area. The models are in good agreement with precipitation breaking out in the waa pattern between 6-9Z across the swarning portion of the area, and 9- 12Z elsewhere. The cold air is forecast to erode quickly, but it does look likely to hold in long enough for at least a wintry mix at the onset across the interior. Mainly snow and sleet changing over to rain is expected, but across some portions of the interior, there could be a bit of fzra as well where the llevel cold air is locked in a bit longer. The favored area for this is across nwarning Orange county, and a hundredth of icing has been added to the forecast. Any period of icing is expected to be brief attm, with the pattern not conducive to significant cad. The 15Z sref was used for probability of precipitation and timing, and the NBM along with CONSALL was used for temps, which should rise overnight.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
A weak low center embedded within a broad area of low pressure shifts through on Saturday with rain likely. Mixed PCPN for the first few hours of the morning NW of the city before thermal profiles warm up for all rain by noontime. Total snowfall is expected to be under an inch. Rain should end by sunset for most places, then weak ridging supports dry weather Saturday night.
Another weak low center then approaches us on Sunday with rain likely, and if it begins early enough, locations well NW of the city could see it briefly mix with sleet due to wet-bulbing. Models have the low passing just offshore Sunday evening with lingering rain chances, then a surface trough moves in with moisture convergence, maintaining chances of rain overnight. Drying of the atmospheric column occurs on Monday with a westerly flow setting up ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front passes through dry, and it becomes breezy in the afternoon. An upper trough axis and shortwave then pass through Monday night. Not much moisture depicted by the models, but still included a chance of flurries during the period. Remaining breezy as well.
Deep-layered ridging then occurs for Tuesday with dry conditions. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFSv16, and to a lesser degree GDPS, then show a broad area of low pressure that could bring mainly rain to the forecast area Wednesday-Thursday. Will go with only chance Probability of Precipitation for now for this period.
High temperatures will be in the 40s through the long term forecast, with the exception of Tuesday when it will be mostly 35-40.
Winds and seas are then expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels thru Fri ngt.
Winds and seas increase to advisory levels on Saturday ahead of an approaching low pressure system, with seas remaining elevated due to a lingering swell in the storm's wake. Elsewhere, gusts to 25 kt will be possible primarily over the eastern Sound and Bays on Saturday. Seas up to 5 ft may still linger on the ocean through Sunday night with a weak low center passing through the area waters.
A cold front then passes through on Monday with cold air advection perhaps strong enough to create gale force gusts on some of the waters - if not at least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through Tuesday morning. High pressure then settles in with more tranquil conditions by the end of Tuesday.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Wednesday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.