New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Mon...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Tstms. Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
447am EDT Sunday May 26 2019
Synopsis: A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening, followed by weak high pressure for Memorial Day. Another warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of Long Island. The front should lift through by Thursday morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday. The front may linger into Friday, then weak high pressure may build in to start next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
After some stratus early this morning, skies clear as the atmospheric column dries out. This, along with an offshore wind component for much of the area will allow for deep mixing and rapid heating this morning into early afternoon. Mixing up to 800mb with temps at this level at 12-13C during the mid-afternoon yields highs in the lower 90s across NE NJ and parts of NYC and adjacent suburbs. Immediate south coasts will likely be limited to upper 70s/lower 80s with SW component to flow and hybrid afternoon sea breeze development ahead of thermal troughing and approach of cold front. Elsewhere, widespread mid to upper 80 degree temps, locally 90 degrees. These temps will be about 15-20 degrees above seasonable. Surface dewpoints will keep heat index values within a degree or two of the ambient temperature.
A cold front enters from the NW late in the day and moves through the rest of area this evening. Ahead of it, a weak thermal trough will develop across the region. Potential for showers and thunderstorms will limited in spite of the surface heating and building instability. Mid-level capping and late dynamic lift with limited available moisture will serve to limit any activity to isolated/scattered. Any thunderstorms that manage to occur could have strong wind gusts with the given speed shear and relatively dry conditions in the sub-cloud layer with an inverted-V profile.
Moisture increases this evening along the cold front but with a more stable atmosphere. Still, a chance of showers and thunderstorms remains for some areas until around midnight. Drier air pushes in overnight behind the cold front.
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today
Short Term - Monday
Weak high pressure builds in for Memorial Day with dry weather and less humid conditions than today. MOstly sunny with high temperatures still above normal, but not a warm as today.
There is a low risk of rip current development on Sunday
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
Much of this week will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat ridging to the south, and a series of passing shortwave troughs along with a nearby surface warm front bringing inclement weather at times beginning late Monday night. The warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday with showers, also perhaps a few tstms by Tuesday evening as mid levels destabilize, but remain just south as a weak surface low develops along it and ripples eastward.
The front should remain south until Thu, with one more accompanying round of showers/tstms Wednesday night, then lift through Thu morning as the flow aloft amplifies just enough in response to a weakening upper low shearing out into the Plains states. This should make Thu the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in the 80s, which along with dewpoints in the lower 60s, should provide sufficient instability for afternoon/evening tstms ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms with the front could be strong per ECMWF/GFS consensus, with sfc-based LI -4C to -6C, mid level flow 40-50 kt, and Maglenta and SWEAT indices as low as 3 and nearing 300 respectively. Some recent events that looked greater in the long term have not quite panned out, but the accompanying air mass for this event is likely to be warmer and more humid and therefor more unstable.
The surface front could linger nearby into Fri morning per GFS as it aligns with the flow aloft. with only slight chance Probability of Precipitation this far out in time. Otherwise weak high pressure should build in to end the work week and start next weekend, before the next in the train of disturbances follows possibly for next Sunday.
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions today with W to SW winds averaging around 10 kt, although a late afternoon southerly coastal jet of 15-20 kt is possible for the NY Bight. Seas mostly 3 to 4 feet. Relatively tranquil conditions expected for Monday.
Expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing winds/seas through the longer term. Can't totally rule out onshore flow pushing seas close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening and again Thu night, or sea breezes gusting to 25 kt Thu afternoon on the near shore ocean waters and the south shore bays of Long Island. Tstms may also pose a hazard each late day and evening during mid week, especially on Thu
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated today/tonight and probably for much of the upcoming week
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.