Marine Weather Net

New York Harbor Marine Forecast




5 - 10




5 - 10

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ338 Forecast Issued: 544 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S This Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft This Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers Late.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Mon...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752am EDT Sat July 20 2024

High pressure moves offshore today, with a surface trough lingering over the area through the weekend. A weak cold front approaches from the north on Sunday and likely dissipates before reaching the area. A wave of low pressure passes to the south Monday night into Tuesday. A stationary boundary will then be over the region the rest of Tuesday into much of Wednesday. The front may lift north temporarily late Wednesday into Thursday before sagging south and pushing through as a cold front early on Friday. Weak high pressure should return late Friday into next weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
The forecast is on track this morning and only minor adjustments were made to capture current trends. High clouds can be seen increasing over the area ahead of the approaching shortwave. Cloud cover will continue to increase through the morning.

High pressure moves offshore today, while a surface trough lingers over the area. Aloft, an upper level low spins in eastern Canada, with a trough axis extending well southwest into the Southern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwave troughs lift and approach from the southwest this morning and pass through this afternoon and overnight. This will bring a gradual increase of mid and high level clouds through the day. Skies become mostly cloudy by the late morning.

Given the S/SW flow, the area will gradually destabilize, mainly north and west of NYC. The CAMs continue to show isolated convective activity north and west of NYC in the afternoon and then spreading east through the evening and overnight. Thinking much of this activity will just be showers with model soundings not showing any CAPE above -15C. The Lower Hudson Valley looks to be a bit more unstable than the rest of the area, with a deeper CAPE profile, so have kept mention of thunder there.

Highs will be just a few degrees warmer than Friday, with dewpoints in the 60s.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
The surface trough continues to linger on Sunday, becoming a bit more pronounced, while the flow aloft becomes more zonal. A weakening cold front also approaches from the north, but will likely dissipate before reaching the area. Most CAMs are hinting at some convective activity popping up around NYC and Long Island, likely due to increased surface convergence between sea breeze boundaries and the surface trough. Similar to today, left out thunder due to lack of a deep CAPE profile. Only expecting a slight chance of some Probability of Precipitation up showers.

A wave of low pressure will pass to the south Monday night into Tuesday and likely bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Chances start Monday afternoon and ramp up into Monday night.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be back in the upper 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
A frontal boundary will lock up over the region Tuesday and likely into much of Wednesday. This should lead to a rather warm and humid period of unsettled weather. A series of shortwaves are suggested by global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) leading to an extended period of chance and embedded likely Probability of Precipitation Tuesday through Thursday night. The most favored time of day will be the afternoon and evening as per any diurnally favored convection. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are likely going to run at or above the climatological 90th percentile. Any embedded thunderstorm activity will likely lead to intervals of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. See the hydrology portion of the AFD for more information.

Weak high pressure likely returns for Friday and into next weekend.

Temperatures through the period are likely to be near to slightly above normal, with more of a tendency for above normal temperatures for the night time due to high humidity and a tendency for clouds. Cloud cover should preclude the need for any heat headlines during this time frame. However, if the frontal boundary gets further north and the region gets more clearly in the warm sector for any length of time then heat headlines would be a possibility Wednesday into Thursday.

With a weak pressure gradient over the area, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. The stretch of 2 ft ocean seas is likely to continue through Tuesday night. A S-SW flow may increase towards Wednesday with marginal small craft conditions becoming possible by Wednesday night.

There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

The region will be in a humid and unsettled pattern towards mid week with anomalously high PWATs. Therefore at this time there appears to be at least a limited risk of localized flash flooding from any thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. It remains too soon to lock down any details around hydrologic related impacts for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. ML based progs are indicative of the potential for a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Today, a moderate rip current risk is forecast for the ocean beaches, with surf heigheights 2-3 ft and an onshore flow increasing to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. The moderate risk continues on Sunday with similar conditions.

Minor coastal flood benchmarks may be approached along the western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens for the Monday and Tuesday night high tide cycles. There remains a good deal of uncertainty around this, thus trends in the water level forecast will need to be monitored for these locations.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.