New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Evening. Chance Of Rain After Midnight, Then Rain Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely.|
| 324 PM EST Wed Nov 25 2020 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Another warm front lifts north of the waters this evening ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. The low passes north and west of the area Thanksgiving Day, followed by a weak secondary low crossing the area Thursday night. A weak frontal passage will occur on Saturday. Low pressure will likely impact the region during the beginning of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
348pm EST Wednesday Nov 25 2020
Another warm front lifts north this evening ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. The low passes north and west of the area Thanksgiving Day, followed by a weak secondary low crossing the area Thursday night. A weak frontal passage will occur on Saturday. Low pressure will likely impact the region during the beginning of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
A few showers have broken out across Orange County as the next warm front lifts north. This front is associated with an area of low low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. A slight chance of showers will continue through the early evening hours before precipitation chances increase more significantly after midnight as the entire system draws closer, with rain becoming moderate towards daybreak.
After initially falling into the lower 40s across the interior and the upper 40s to around 50 at the coast this evening, temperatures will slowly rise towards morning.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
Rain, moderate at times, will continue through Thanksgiving morning and into the first half of the afternoon before gradually tapering off late from west to east. Models continue to advertise 100-200 J/kg CAPE during the afternoon, so continued to mention the potential of isolated thunder in the grids. This could also result in more showery precipitation through the afternoon hours. Dry conditions will then return overnight as the upper trough lifts to the northeast.
With the area in the warm sector, temperatures on Thursday will range from the mid to upper 50s inland to around 60 at the coast. Overnight lows will then fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across much of the area Thursday night, although typically cooler interior locations will see temperatures several degrees cooler.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Mainly dry weather can be expected Fri thru Sun. NBM probability of precipitation are dry. The GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suggest the chance for a sprinkle, but with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) below a half an inch, the forecast has been kept dry in line with the NBM at this point. The NBM was used for temps.
The models are in pretty good agreement that deepening then occluding low pressure will impact the area at least Monday and Tue, and perhaps longer. The current track is west of the area so a rainfall event is expected attm. There could be a period of hvy rain before occlusion, especially if the low tracks far enough to the west to allow the subtropical moisture surge into the cwa like the 12z ECMWF modeled. Still too much uncertainty this far out to include the hvy rain in the official forecast attm.
There could be some coastal impacts with this sys as well. Strong sly winds should build seas on the ocean to at least 10 ft. This could result in some beach erosion and washovers. Spring tides will enhance the coastal flood threat as well.
Marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue on the ocean waters into this evening with seas approaching 5 ft and occasional gusts to near 25 kt. There may be a period of several hours overnight where conditions are below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria, but seas quickly increase back to 5 ft during the day on Thursday in persistent southerly flow. With this in mind, elected to extend the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on the ocean through the day on Thursday. Seas will then decrease from west to east Thursday night.
Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory levels for most of the area Fri. The eastern ocean could be the exception with seas potentially around 5 ft for at least the first part of the day. Winds and seas are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory levels for all waters over the weekend, although there will be a brief uptick in nw flow after the passage of a cold front Sat.
Gales are possible, along with high seas, for the beginning of next week as strong low pressure impacts the area.
Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected across most of the area from tonight through Thanksgiving Day. The highest amounts are expected across Long Island and southern Connecticut. No hydrologic impacts are expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Fri thru Sun. Deep low pressure could produce a period of hvy rain during the beginning of next week which could produce some minor flooding.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.