New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms Early This Evening, Then Chance Of Tstms Late This Evening. Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Early Morning.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
412pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022
A cold front moves through tonight. A series of weaker cold fronts pass through the area Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front moves across Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Strong high pressure from the Great Lakes then builds in Thursday through Friday night. By next weekend, the high pressure area will weaken and shift east of the region into the Northern Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, a warm front with tropical moisture well in advance of inland low pressure will approach from the south and west this weekend.
Near Term - Through Monday
Any showers and convection should linger through the evening, especially further east for the late evening and into the earlier portion of the overnight. Any convection will continue to be capable of producing strong to severe storms, although the window for severe weather has decreased, especially further west across the area. The primary hazard / threat would be strong to damaging wind gusts, with hail as more of secondary hazard / threat. Current thinking has the shortwave getting further east closer to midnight, and the cold front getting across the city towards midnight as well and further east closer to 6z. With clouds around for a portion of tonight and a persistent SW flow, look for a more advective type of night. Thus with a lack of radiational effects, look for temperatures to be just a little above normal tonight with lows in mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
The longwave pattern change will continue to evolve with amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough and the Western CONUS ridge through Tuesday. Occluded low pressure across SE Canada and just north of the Eastern Great Lakes will dominate in the short term. Low pressure will continue to spin NW of the area and rotate a series of cold fronts / troughs through the area. Another boundary will pivot through later in the day on Monday and will coincide with diurnal affects. Thus look for clouds to build, mainly strat-cu by or shortly before midday. Low end chance, slight chance Probability of Precipitation is prudent for Monday afternoon as any low level convergence underneath steep lower to mid level lapse rates can induce some showers. A touch of mid level instability along with an inverted profile cloud lead to a few gusts in association with any shower activity. It will be quite dry below 5-6 kft, so cloud bases will be elevated a touch, thus virga is likely with higher base activity. The overall theme here is a mostly dry day and mostly cloudy afternoon, but the chance of a shower or perhaps brief isolated thundershower popping up.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday
The WSW flow regime continues Monday night into Tuesday. A weak inversion is suggested by guidance in the mid levels, thus some clouds may be around at times. Look for a partly cloudy night and once again the breeze will stay up enough, especially closer to the coast to prevent much in the way of radiational cooling. Thus continuing with the theme of slightly above normal night time temps, and near normal day time temps into the day on Tuesday. Look for clouds to build by the early afternoon with daytime heating and continued steep lower to lower-mid level lapse rates. Broken cloud cover should prevail by afternoon. For the time being have kept Probability of Precipitation minimal and thus keeping the day dry, although cannot completely rule out a few sprinkles or a brief shower across NW interior sections. The WSW flow continues with gusts getting to 20 to 25 mph in some spots.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
As a broad upper trough across eastern NoAm prepares to lift out, leading mid level vort energy will help push a cold front through, with a weak surface trough following late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Strong high pressure off to the west under mid level confluence in the wake of the upper trough should then build in for late week.
Guidance then generally agrees on the idea of western Atlantic ridging expanding NW this weekend, with tropical predecessor moisture well in advance of any remnant low from now-TS Ian focusing along a warm front lifting up the coast, but disagrees on the details. Latest GFS (Global Forecast System) shows mid level confluence holding over the Northeast which would keep this moisture just south, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) more aggressively builds the Atlantic ridge northward, allowing the front and associated moisture to move up into the area and possibly deliver heavy rainfall. The situation is highly uncertain and is also tied to the future track and intensity of Ian as the storm moves into and makes landfall somewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico per NHC forecast, so for now the forecast carries 30-40 Probability of Precipitation going into Sat night and Sunday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) are in effect for all coastal waters except for NY Harbor and Western LI Sound through the day Monday. Seas rise to 6-7 feet across much of the ocean, with 5-6 feet seas for the western ocean. The eastern ocean small craft will remain in effect longer into Monday night as winds persist a bit longer and seas are slow to subside below 5 ft. Elevated seas may linger into early Tuesday morning so small crafts for the ocean may need to be extended. At this time 4 ft seas are expected during the day on Tuesday for much of the ocean, although marginal small craft seas will remain a strong possibility with the WSW flow continuing preceding the next approaching cold frontal boundary towards Tuesday eve / night.
With WSW to W flow 15-20 kt for Tuesday night into Wed, some 5- ft seas are possible during that time on the outer coastal ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.
There is low potential for heavy rainfall next weekend, depending on the future track and evolution of the remnant low of Ian, western Atlantic ridging, and an associated warm front. It is much too early to say more than that since the situation is highly uncertain and may not even occur, so for now it is just something to monitor through the week. Any heavy rainfall would be beneficial in relieving ongoing moderate to severe drought conditions that exists across the area.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a high risk of rip currents Monday with an increasing southwesterly flow and waves 5-7 feet at 7-8 seconds. There is currently a moderate risk rip currents on Tuesday as waves decrease somewhat with a lingering 7 second swell.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Monday for ANZ353-355.