New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft This Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tonight...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
954am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
A weak low pressure trough will pass through the area this morning. High pressure will then build from the north, settle over the area from Thursday into Friday. The high will then give way to low pressure passing offshore over the weekend. Brief high pressure on Monday will give to an approaching warm front Monday night into Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made to reflect current forecast. Current visible satellite imagery shows clearing across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast New Jersey, Connecticut, and western Long Island. This should continue over the next few hours.
A real thin layer of moisture should dissipate fairly quickly this morning with the onset of daytime heating and the passage of the 850-500h trough. That being said, guidance has a had very difficult time resolving this layer trapped beneath an inversion from 850-800 mb. Latest satellite imagery is starting to show large breaks forming to the north of the area. Mostly sunny skies are forecast by late morning.
Temps despite cloud cover have been close to or just over MOS guidance, so have followed that trend for today, with highs in the lower 40s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Thursday
Clear skies and diminishing winds as high pressure builds from the north will lead to a cold night, with lows in the teens inland, along the SE CT coast, and in the Long Island Pine Barrens, and 20s elsewhere, at or no more than a few degrees below seasonal averages.
Still mostly sunny for most of Thu, with a veil of bkn high clouds spreading over the area in the afternoon per model soundings, perhaps also a few low clouds right along the coast atop a shallow marine layer as low level flow turns NE-E. Tue should be the coldest day of the entire forecast period, with highs in the mid/upper 30s most places, and near 40 only in NYC and NE NJ, which are near seasonal averages.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
As suspected 24 hours ago, additional PAC energy would be better resolved as it moved onshore across western Canada on Tuesday. This seems to have resulted in much better agreement of the global model guidance with the forecast track of a coastal low Friday night into Saturday. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF, as well as their ensemble members, take a deepening low from Mid Atlantic coast Saturday morning, to southeast of the 40N...70W benchmark Saturday night. This will keep the area on the NW flank of the storm with a low chance of precipitation Friday night into Saturday night, with the highest probability across coastal locations.
There is very little cold air in place with the main source coming from an approaching upper trough to the west. Dynamics are weak and there is no evidence of phasing of multiple streams of shortwave energy within the southern branch of the polar jet. The best forcing will likely be well to the east with the offshore cyclogenesis. Thus, have opted for only low chances of rain and snow. No snowfall accumulations are forecast at this time with the liquid equivalent amounts likely to be less than a quarter inch. It's quite possible that the area stays dry this weekend. The trend is toward less impact.
After a cold start Friday morning with high pressure across the area, temperatures will remain above normal by about 5 degrees with highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Conditions quickly warm going into next week with the upper trough passing offshore on Sunday and broad southern branch ridging expanding eastward. This will be accompanied by temperatures getting well into the 40s Monday and Tuesday with the possibility of the lower 50s in some spots. An approaching warm front Monday night into Tuesday will produce increasing chances of rain. Wintry weather seems unlikely with warm air aloft and lows across the interior Tuesday morning in the lower 30s to start.
Thus far this winter, southern branch domination looks to continue into next week.
Winds just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria still ongoing on the western ocean waters. Winds throughout should diminish, with quiet conditions into Friday as high pressure builds from the north. The high will then give way to deepening low pressure tracking from the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday morning to south and east of 40N/70W Saturday night. This will keep the area on the NW fringe of the storm, with the potential for marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. A better chance may come Saturday night into Sunday in post-storm westerly flow. Lingering SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas on the ocean may linger into Monday.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.