Marine Weather Net

New York Harbor Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ338 Forecast Issued: 858 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Tonight...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tue...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely.
Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1222am EDT Monday May 23 2022

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the west. The high slides off shore late Tuesday into Tuesday night and then remains off shore through the middle of the week. A frontal system approaches the area late in the week.

Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
Just some isolated showers with cold front passage between midnight and 2 am. Weakening convective complex over southern NJ should continue to weaken as it slides south of the area overnight.

Following the cold frontal passage, winds become northwesterly. A brief burst of NW gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely in its wake, settling back to occasional gusts up to 20 mph overnight. Lows tonight fall into the 50s and lower 60s.

Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
Conditions will be more seasonable on Monday as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds north of the area. This will result in a northerly flow across the area on Monday that veers around to the NE Monday night. The flow may weaken just enough in the afternoon for seabreezes to develop.

One forecast uncertainty during this period will be the amount of cloud cover as moisture from a frontal wave over the SE streams NE. Some of the model blends continue to be aggressive with the cloud cover. For now, will keep at least partly cloudy conditions at this time. This could impact the temperature forecast a bit, but overall highs on Monday should reach the lower and middle 70s. Monday night lows fall into the 50s.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
Tranquil conditions expected through the middle of the week as the center of high pressure pushes off the New England coast late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Aloft, the pattern will generally be a zonal flow. Onshore flow thanks to a developing maritime air mass during this time frame will keep temperatures at or a few degrees below normal.

An upper level ridge begins to build over the western Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday, which itself will be ahead of a developing storm system in the middle of the country. This upper level ridging will translate east through Wednesday night, and a surface warm front will push through from the southwest during the day Thursday. A feature to watch will be the development of a weak area of low pressure or inverted trough off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This could move northward Wednesday night, and bring in more widespread light precipitation than is currently forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Right now, capped POPs at chance during this time frame.

The passage of the warm front on Thursday will allow warmer air to advect into the forecast area for Thursday and Friday. The associated cold front will move through and push off shore on Friday. Depending on the speed of the front, temperatures on Friday could be a bit cooler if the front moves in sooner than forecast. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble continues to show a large spread in high temperatures for Friday. There continues to be timing and strength issues with the cold front, with the ECMWF being uncharacteristically more progressive than the other deterministic models. However, a look at the ensemble models shows a frontal passage late in the day Friday into Friday night to be a reasonable solution.

Conditions are expected to be dry through Wednesday. Introduce a chance of showers late Wednesday night with the potential of the weak low/inverted trough moving into the area. It will then remain unsettled from Thursday through the end of the work week as the warm front moves through, then the cold front. Dry conditions are expected by late Friday night.

Marine
A cold front will push across the waters this evening. Behind the front, high pressure builds in north of the waters. Gusts up to 20 kt likely overnight, weakening Monday AM.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are anticipated through Thursday with a weak pressure gradient in place. Increasing southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front may allow for gusts of around 25 kt on the ocean waters for Friday and perhaps the eastern sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays. Waves on the ocean may build to 5 ft Thursday night into Friday.

Hydrology
A frontal system will likely bring rain to the area late this week, but there is too much uncertainty this far out in time in determining any hydrological impacts, if any.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
None.