New York Harbor Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341pm EDT Tuesday September 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the last forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Aside from possible brief rain showers Thursday into early Friday, mainly dry conditions in place for much of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer for Wednesday compared to previous day. 2) Cold front and associated showers forecast Thursday through early Friday morning. 3) Prolonged chance of rain Saturday night through early next week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Our forecast region remains on the NE periphery of a mid level ridge through midweek. A shortwave moves across well to the north late Thursday into early Friday. A quasi-zonal WNW flow in the mid levels takes shape Friday into Saturday. At the surface, high pressure builds across through early Wednesday and then moves offshore to the south thereafter Wednesday. This will be followed by a cold front crossing through Thursday night into early Friday. This will then be followed by more high pressure Friday into Saturday. Models exhibit good agreement on 850mb temperatures being a few degrees warmer Wednesday afternoon compared to the previous afternoon. While models indicate a slight decrease of 850mb temperatures Thursday and more clouds, better low level mixing should allow for temperatures to adiabatically warm just as high as the previous day. The synoptic SW flow and warm air advection pattern will make for warmer than normal days both Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures for highs are more in the 70s to lower 80s range. The humidity will be getting increasingly higher Wednesday and Thursday as noted by the average 1000-850 mb mixing ratios depicted by the forecast models for each afternoon. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front approaches Thursday and moves across late Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will bring a round of showers to the region. Went above NBM POPs as NAM is showing near a half inch rainfall amounts and SREF is showing probabilities of more than a hundredth of an inch of rain getting to near 60 to 70 percent. NAM seems to be most aggressive with the model solutions and with this higher precipitation forecast are lower heigheights aloft and relatively lower pressure at the surface. More forcing and also higher PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are present within the NAM. This is something to monitor for subsequent forecasts to see if the front gets stronger with more precipitation and thereby more model solutions lean towards the NAM. With the amount of uncertainty, did not include much thunder yet as elevated instability parameter of Showalter Indices showed mostly positive values averaging amongst the different models and there is not much confidence on there being sufficient vertical forcing at this current time. Did put in slight chance north and west of NYC in advance of cold front and with daytime instability and surface based CAPE potentially getting to near 200 J/kg Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening where there was relatively more model agreement. .KEY MESSAGE 3... More of an unsettled weather pattern takes shape for the second half of the weekend into early next week. The ridge to the southwest of the region in the mid levels will be getting more suppressed. The region will be left with a quasi-zonal WNW flow in the mid levels. Models indicate periodic shortwaves moving across the local region. At the surface, high pressure moves to the east and out into the Northern Atlantic late Saturday into Saturday night. A frontal system approaches from the west Sunday and may very well linger into early next week. Chances of showers return Saturday night and continue through Tuesday next week. It will likely not be raining the entire time but will probably be periodic. Daytime highs are mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s range with lows at night mainly 50s to lower 60s with temperatures a little warmer relatively within NYC. Prolonged low level easterly flow is shown as well with low pressure generally south of the region and high pressure generally to the north of the region. Marine High pressure remains in control, building across tonight and then will slowly slide south of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. The pressure gradient remains overall weak, allowing for conditions to remain well below small craft advisory thresholds. The cold front passing through Thursday night into early Friday is not expected to be too strong, so the sub-small craft conditions continue Thursday through Friday. Conditions start to ramp up Friday night into Saturday as high pressure starts to build in from the north and low pressure deepens east of the Canadian Maritimes. A frontal system approaches from the west for the latter half of the weekend. Ocean seas build to near 3 to 4 ft. Winds become more easterly Friday night into the weekend with gusts to near 20 kt, potentially up to near 25 kt at times. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) potential especially for the ocean increases Friday night into the weekend. Rip Currents... Low rip current risk continues for the remainder of today. Tomorrow, rip current risk will primarily be low through midday, but eventually winds will increase enough out of the S/SW to increase the rip current risk to moderate for all beaches except eastern Suffolk county beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected on all south-facing Long Island beaches on Thursday, especially as swell increases under stronger winds in the latter portion of the day. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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