New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Overnight...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
| 108 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves toward the New Jersey coast late Friday night, and passes to the south on Saturday. A series of cold frontal passages will occur into next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
146am EDT Fri September 25 2020
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through Friday night. A weak disturbance approaches from the south late Friday night and will pass south of the area on Saturday. High pressure will settle south of the area on Sunday. A series of cold frontal passages will take place through the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
Mostly clear skies have allowed for enough cooling outside of the NYC metro for patchy fog and stratus to develop. This will have to be watched through the night as some of the HiRes soundings pointing toward a really shallow saturated boundary (less than 500 ft). Partly to mostly cloudy skies are possible, especially across coastal areas and river valleys toward daybreak.
Despite near calm winds, and mostly clearing skies, a light southerly flow will keep a warm airmass in place, with overnight lows slightly above seasonal normals.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Saturday
During Friday morning a northern stream and southern stream shortwaves merge, keeping a amplifies open wave moving through the Ohio Valley and toward the mid Atlantic coast Friday night. The guidance is still indicating that some of the energy with the wave moves up along the coast late Friday night. And with some weak lift will keep slight chance probabilities in the forecast. With a moistening lower level in a persistent southerly flow Friday and Friday night, there may be patchy fog, and some stratus.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday due to a lingering E-SE swell.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Saturday due to a lingering E-SE swell.
Low pressure will move well south of the area on Saturday. Enough low level moisture on a southerly flow could very well lead to some low level stratus and some patchy fog early in the day. Otherwise the current thinking is that much of the day will be dry. An open upper level disturbance will be around early, then depart later in the day into the evening. Thought it prudent to go with a general slight chance, especially for the first half of the day. The broad southerly flow will keep temperatures above average for late September through the entire weekend. By late Saturday night and early Sunday morning there will be a somewhat higher chance of lower stratus and patchy fog. The winds will still be relatively light late at night and into the early morning with the guidance suggesting another surge of low level moisture moving in from the south. Moving into the late morning and afternoon partly sunny skies are expected, leading to another warm and somewhat humid day for late September with areas away from the shore likely climbing into the lower 80s.
By Sunday night a cold front will start to draw closer from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Also a weak disturbance in the lower levels will begin to approach from the southwest. Thus precipitation chances increase late Sunday night into Monday morning.
A pattern transition will then begin to occur into next week. Long wave amplification will take place as heigheights rise out west, and a trough develops over the Midwest and begins to translate east. The first cold front will approach towards Monday night. Ahead of the front showers should develop, and with some instability cannot rule out a thunderstorm. There will only be a subtle drop in temperatures and humidity, if at all into Tuesday as another cold front approaches. This cold front may have more in the way of overall forcing to work with, thus there will be higher likelihood of rain along with a slight chance of a few thunderstorms across the area into Tuesday afternoon. The 12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is at odds with much of the remainder of the global guidance as it came in a lot slower, and holds off on bringing rain to the area until late Tuesday night into Wednesday. For now leaned mostly away from the ECMWF and went more with a GFS, ICON, Canadian solution. However, did extend chance and slight chance POPs for a bit longer into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in case the ECMWF has some merit. Thereafter temperatures will fall back to near seasonable levels behind a series of cold fronts. Near normal temperatures will last into later Wednesday through the remainder of the week as the long wave trough will be stubborn to push out of the area.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the weekend. By late Sunday into Sunday night the southerly flow will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This should lead to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to develop out on the ocean into Monday as seas approach 5 ft or thereabouts. There may be a period where seas become more marginal and may actually fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. However, the south to southwesterly flow is expected to increase into the day on Tuesday. This will make small craft conditions more likely once again on the ocean, with marginal small craft conditions becoming more likely for the near shore waters towards Tuesday afternoon.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time through the entire forecast period.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.