New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Evening.|
|Fri...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
742pm EDT Thu July 18 2019
Synopsis: A weak cold front sags slowly south of the area tonight. The area will then come under the influence of the western extent of the Bermuda high through the weekend. A cold front approaches and moves through Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Near Term - Through Friday
Showers finally weakening across portions of the NYC metro, with some enhancement again along the CT coast. Overall though, expect gradual dissipation as a frontal wave just south of NYC tracks east. An additional quarter to half inch is not out of the question in spots.
A few showers may linger through the overnight due to weak lift as weak mid level shortwaves traverse the southern edge of the westerlies.
It will be a warm, humid night with readings ranging from the mid and upper 60s inland, to the lower and mid 70s across the NYC metro. There is some hint of cooler temperatures working in on the a light N/NE flow overnight behind the front and wave. These readings are near 5 degrees above normal
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6pm FRIDAY/... Forecast area will reside at the southern edge of the westerlies with the potential for record warmth as we head into the weekend. This will be the start of a heat wave for the region following the cloud cover and showers that tempered the temperatures on Thursday.
Deep-layered W flow and the westward expansion of the subtropical high along the east coast will combine to keep the airmass very humid with dew points into the lower and middle 70s on Friday. This combined with highs in the lower and middle 90s from NYC and points north and west will produce heat index values around 105 on Friday for the NYC metro, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley. An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for these areas. To the east, a developing onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90. Still though, heat index values will range from mid 90s to around 100. These locations are under a Heat Advisory. This will begin a prolonged period of heat hazards for the region.
Additionally, some of the CAMs are not hinting at late day convection dropping in from the NW during the late afternoon/early evening hours. High CAPE, weak shear environment with lack of a strong trigger lends only to an isolated mention in the forecast at this time. However, any storm breaking the CAP could be strong to severe with the main threat be localized damaging winds.
For Friday night, not much relief with temperatures struggling to get into the 70s. Heat Index values overnight may get no lower than the mid to upper 80s for the NYC metro area.
There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for Friday
Long Term - Friday Night Through Thursday
The main concern for this period continues to be the high heat and humidity that is expected to continue Saturday and Sunday thanks to a Bermuda high over the northern Atlantic. 850 hPa temperature anomalies of +2-+3C over the Great Lakes region will move over the area through Sunday. 500 hPa heigheights over 5900 m also noted in guidance for Saturday, with slightly less values for Sunday. This is in line with climatology for a widespread heat wave to impact the forecast area from Friday through Sunday. Much of the guidance suggests highs well into the the 90s during this time frame, with dew points well into the 70s.
Highs on Saturday will range form 95 to 100 degrees, with perhaps isolated areas in Northeast New Jersey reaching a degree or two above the century mark. Sunday will be slightly cooler, as heigheights lower somewhat, but it will continue to be very hot and humid. There is also a great deal of uncertainty with the temperatures for Sunday due to uncertainty in cloud coverage from an approaching cold front to the west. The ECMWF ensemble has a range of high temperatures from 89 to 101 for Central Park.
Regardless, with anomalously high dew points in the middle to upper 70s in some cases, this translates to heat index values of 105 to just over 110 for much of the forecast area (isolated portions of Northeast New Jersey may see heat index values of 115) for Saturday. Excessive heat watches have been converted to Excessive Heat Warnings for Saturday. With the potential for widespread heat index values of 105-110 on Sunday, Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for then as well. These temperatures and heat index values are life threatening, please follow the preparedness/precautionary actions within our Excessive Heat Warning products to prepare for the upcoming heat.
Of additional concern are nighttime lows Saturday night into Sunday, as lows are not forecast to dip below 80 in the New York City metro area, with the lowest forecast heat index values during that time frame in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
As for precipitation, thermal troughs developing will allow for just a passing shower or thunderstorm for late Saturday into Saturday night. An approaching cold front will bring a low end chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly for New York City and points north and west. As for now, nothing indicating a widespread severe event in the long term. Chances increase Sunday night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon as the cold front remains just off shore. There may be lingering showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, mainly for southern portions of the area. Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to increase cloudiness and rain, with lower humidity levels. More seasonable conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with high pressure in control for the middle of the week
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to IFR conditions generally prevailing across the area. A return to IFR/LIFR conditions expected this evening. Scattered showers will prevail across the area which may reduced visibilities at times. A strong cluster of TSTMs across central and south New Jersey should continue to move east and stay south of the NYC terminals but will keep a chance of thunderstorms KJFK/KEWR/KTEB with VCTS due to impacts to air travel. Showers end this eve with the front pushing south of Long Island.
A light, generally less than 10 kt E-NE flow is expected across the terminals with a coastal sea breeze veering wind to the SE at times at KJFK.
Winds switch to W-SW near 10 kt around 15z on Friday and VFR is expected to return. Timing could be of a few hours, especially at KLGA where a easterly component to the wind may hang on a few hours longer.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .21z Friday through Sunday...VFR. Isolated shra/tstms possible Sunday especially late .Monday and Tuesday...MVFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Easterly winds ahead of frontal wave could briefly produce gusts up to 20 kt on the sound this evening before dissipating as a weak northerly flow develops overnight. On Friday, S-SW winds on the ocean waters in the afternoon will push 15 to 20 kt and then weaken Friday night. A brief period of 5 ft seas late in the day is possible. Confidence is low at this time.
Thereafter, a weak pressure gradient in the long term will mean winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly flow will allow waves on the ocean to build to 5 ft Sunday night through Tuesday, mainly for the central and eastern ocean zone
Very localized rainfall amounts up to an inch are possible this evening, mainly across the NYC metro and western Long Island early this evening. This could result in poor drainage and low lying flooding.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into next week.
The following are records for this weekend:
Record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, July 20:
NYC: 82 in 2015 LGA: 83 in 2015 JFK: 79 in 2015 EWR: 80 in 2015 ISP: 78 in 2013 BDR: 79 in 2013
Record high temperatures for Saturday, July 20:
NYC: 101 in 1980 LGA: 101 in 1991 JFK: 96 in 2013 (Also occurred in previous years) EWR: 101 in 1980 ISP: 97 in 1991 BDR: 95 in 1001
Record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, July 21:
NYC: 82 in 1980 LGA: 83 in 1980 JFK: 79 in 2017 EWR: 81 in 1980 ISP: 76 in 1980 BDR: 76 in 1994
Record high temperatures for Sunday, July 21:
NYC: 104 in 1977 LGA: 100 in 1991 JFK: 99 in 1991 EWR: 103 in 2011 ISP: 101 in 1991 BDR: 98 in 1991
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Excessive Heat Warning from 6am Saturday to 8pm EDT Sunday for CTZ005>012. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 6am EDT Saturday for CTZ005>012. NY...Excessive Heat Warning from 6am Saturday to 8pm EDT Sunday for NYZ078>081-177-179. Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 6am EDT Saturday for NYZ078>081-177-179. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 8pm EDT Sunday for NYZ067>075-176-178. NJ...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Friday to 8pm EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None.