New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Sprinkles.|
|Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Sprinkles In The Evening, Then Sprinkles Or Flurries After Midnight.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
936am EDT Monday Mar 25 2019
Synopsis: A cold frontal passage occurs this morning. High pressure builds across the region through midweek. The high then drifts off into the Northern Atlantic Thursday into Friday. A weak cold front passing by early Friday will be followed by brief high pressure and then a weak warm front moves in. The warm front moves north of the region Friday night with another cold front then slowly moving in during the weekend, not crossing the region until late in the weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Forecast looks mainly on track. Temperatures varied by several degrees between observations and forecast grids but the trend will be lowering today as the cold front moves farther southward and eventually south of Long Island by mid to late morning. Highs will likely be set for many locations this morning, in the upper 40s to lower 50s with vertical mixing and before low level cold air advection fully establishes itself.
Some light radar returns across nern PA were not hitting the ground, with the mesoscale modeling of the HREF/NAM dry today into tngt. The GFS has some light qpf across the southern half of the cwa as well as the HRRR with light forecast reflectivity across the coastal sections for this morning. The SREF is very limited with pcpn chances as well. The area will not be in a favorable jet region today for pcpn. As the eve progresses, the main batch of moisture capable of supporting pcpn is mostly confined to areas s of the cwa. Due to these factors, only sprinkles have been forecast for today, with perhaps some flurries mixing in tngt as the boundary layer cools.
A blend of the guidance and raw model data was used for temps today, with a blend of the NBM, MET and MAV used for tngt. A light nly wind is expected to keep temps from reaching pure radiational cooling potential
Short Term - Tuesday
A 1030s high builds over the Great Lakes, while the frontal boundary remains over the Atlantic. This will keep the area dry, but with temps about 5-10 degrees below average. Wind chills look to remain in the 30s as a 10-15 mph nly flow persists
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The upper level pattern will exhibit the local area staying in between the subtropical and polar branches of the upper level jet throughout the long term period. The mid levels will exhibit split mid level flow Tuesday night through Wednesday night and then this will transition to zonal flow Thursday through Friday. The mid level flow becomes more amplified with more SW flow for the weekend.
At the surface, a continental polar airmass with high pressure settles into Northeast from Central Canada Tuesday night through Wednesday. It then drifts out into the Northern Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region Thursday night and moves across early Friday. High pressure builds more from the Southeast US into the local area for Friday briefly. However the high is weak and quickly gives way to a warm front developing in response to cyclogenesis over the midwest. The warm front moves into the region Friday and north of the region Friday night. A cold front then approaches Saturday and Saturday night and moves across late in the weekend.
The long term forecast period starting Tuesday night will initially have a cold airmass building into the region along with dry conditions. High pressure from central Canada will have traversed the Great Lakes and this will be then building into the local region. Colder than normal temperatures are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
High pressure drifts offshore into the Northern Atlantic Thursday into Friday with another low pressure system developing in the midwest. Conditions will be mainly dry. The transition from zonal flow Thursday into Friday to more SW amplified flow going into the weekend will allow for a quick moderation and thereafter warmup of the airmass. Expecting more in the range of 50 to low 60s for highs and lows more in the 40s for much of the remainder of the long term period.
There will be a slight chance of rain showers with a nearby warm front Friday and then with a slowly approaching cold front during the weekend northwest of NYC with probabilities for rain showers increasing to chance Sunday and Sunday night with a cold front moving across. Some areas north and west of NYC could see some snow showers on the backside of the cold front Sunday night.
Winds and seas will generally be below Small Craft Advisory levels thru Tue. Waves around 5ft currently at 44025 and 44017 are modeled to come down quickly thru 10z. A Small Craft Advisory has not been issued as a result. In addition, seas may hit 5 ft at times on the ocean very late tngt into Tuesday mrng. The 5 footers may be relegated to beyond 20nm, so a Small Craft Advisory has not been issued attm.
The long term marine forecast period starting Tuesday night and going through Friday night will not have much of a tight pressure gradient overall throughout the time period. As a result, winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated for the next 7 days
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.