New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Light Snow.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
553am EST Fri Jan 27 2023
Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday night. A weak low pressure system and cold front then approach on Sunday and shifts through during Sunday night. Weak high pressure will then move back into the area late Monday into Tuesday. Weak low pressure will pass to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday night, with high pressure returning later in the week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
The forecast has been updated mainly for cloud cover over the next few hours. The rest of the forecast is on track so far.
Weak high pressure will be in place with stalled boundary not too far to our north. A shortwave approaches late this morning and shifts through during the afternoon and early evening hours. With some low to mid level moisture around, there's a slight chance of light snow showers or mixed rain and snow showers north of the city from late morning to early evening. Forecast wet-bulb zero heigheights and freezing level heigheights suggest snow can be part of the mix even with surface temps well into the 30s. High temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Dry for the overnight hours with lows ranging from the mid 20s well NW to the mid 30s in the city.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
Weak high pressure will be in control Saturday through Sunday morning. A weak cold front dissipates before it can reach us on Saturday as an associated low pressure center shifts NE through Quebec. Dry weather continues through this period with temperatures above normal.
For Sunday afternoon and night, a weak low pressure system and cold front approach from the west and shift through the forecast area Sunday night. A slight chance of showers for this period, which could mix with and change over to snow showers at night for north and west of the city. High temps on Sunday 45-50 in most spots.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The long term forecast is defined by a relatively zonal mid level flow, with one disturbance exiting to the east Monday morning, then another possibly impacting the area some time from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the track and development of this mid week system, with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) remaining dry while their ensemble means have at least chance Probability of Precipitation for some light snow from Tuesday night into Thu. The Canadian is more aggressive and farther north with this system, with its deterministic run developing low pressure just south of Long Island Tuesday night and ensemble mean signaling likely PoP and also a warmer solution more in favor of mixed precipitation or rain. Am considering the Canadian a bit of an outlier, with the NBM also giving too much weight to this idea. So for now am leaning more toward the GEFS/EPS means, with chance Probability of Precipitation for some light snow late Tuesday night into daytime Wed.
At any rate, temps should trend colder during this time frame, with temps a few degrees above normal Mon-Tue, closer to normal on Wed, then several degrees below normal on Thu.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been extended on the ocean waters due to elevated seas. All seas expected to be below 5 ft by this evening, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds not returning until possibly late tonight. Feel it will be a long enough period of non-advisory conditions, so therefore will not be extending the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through the entire night at this time. This will also give subsequent shifts the chance to assess the need of a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) on Saturday as it looks somewhat marginal. With that said, advisory- level winds and seas at this time look probable on Saturday before subsiding once again Saturday night. Next chance for advisory conditions then arrives on Sunday mainly due to winds.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conds expected Monday and Tue, with max seas 4 ft and wind gusts 20 kt on the outer ocean waters.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ355.