Marine Weather Net

New York Harbor Marine Forecast


TODAY

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ338 Forecast Issued: 1007 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Rain.
Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
108pm EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach today and move across tonight, followed by strong high pressure building toward New England on Saturday. The high will retreat into southeastern Canada from Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure approaches and passes south and east of Long Island through Monday. Another low may pass well south and east of Long Island mid-week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Mostly sunny conditions are expected this afternoon with winds becoming more westerly.

Vertical mixing on forecast soundings for the region last few model runs have been limited up to between 950-925mb. The low level westerly flow with less marine influence and adiabatic mixing up to somewhere between 950mb and 925mb will result in surface temperatures warming to near 50 to 55, warmest at the coast. Max temperatures were slightly increased compared to the previous forecast.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
Cold front passes through, with winds shifting NW this evening and then N overnight while increasing, with gusts 25-30 mph after midnight. Lows tonight should fall to just below freezing along the coast, and well down into the 20s inland, with wind chills in the teens.

A brisk day expected on Sat, with NE winds gusting as high as 35 mph as strong high pressure builds to the north and low pressure slowly rides up the Carolina coast. Highs only in the 30s. perhaps to near 40 across Long Island.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
Canadian high pressure will move over northern New England Saturday night and then retreat into southeastern Canada as an area of low pressure off the southeast coast develops and tracks northeast. Deterministic models show the low tracking well south and east of Long Island through Monday, therefore, confidence is increasing that the area will be on the northern/western fringes of this storm. However, there will continue to be some uncertainty with precipitation amounts during this time frame with banded precipitation moving into the area and how far west it may progress. These details will be ironed out with further model runs.

As for precipitation, rain is expected along the coast, while a wintry mix is possible across portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. Of concern is the potential for freezing rain in these locations, which is indicated in some of the model guidance. However, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts are low out here since they are farther away from the low and large uncertainty exists this far out with temperature, that naturally leads to uncertainty in the exact precipitation type.

Northeast winds will increase Sunday as the pressure gradient between the retreating high and incoming low increases, especially across coastal locations such as Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph, with the highest winds across the Twin Forks.

Long amplitude trough in the mid-week period will allow disturbances to ride along a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic. However, eastern side of the trough will be well off shore, and any lows will track well east of the area. An upper level low may bring some light precipitation to the region for the mid-week period.

Temperatures will average well below normal for Sunday and Monday, with warmer, yet still below normal temperatures expected thereafter.

Marine
Quiet today with W flow and seas around 2 to 3 ft.

Gale warning remains in effect for late tonight into Sat for the ocean waters, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the remaining waters late tonight into Sat night, as winds increase following cold frontal passage. and as the pressure gradient increases between building high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. Gusts up to 35 kt expected on the ocean, and up to 30 kt on the remaining waters, while ocean seas build to 6-8 ft on Sat per blend of WaveWatch and NWPS.

Northeast winds will increase Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient between the retreating high and incoming low increases. Gusts of 25 kt are expected across all waters during this time frame, with the potential for gales to continue for the ocean waters. Winds slowly diminish Sunday night through Monday, with all waters coming below 25 kt by early Monday night.

Waves continue to increase Saturday night through Sunday night, peaking at 8 to 13 ft across the ocean waters with 10 ft waves possible for extreme eastern sections the eastern sound by Sunday night into Monday. Waves diminish thereafter.

Fire Weather
Expecting weather conditions conducive for fire growth and spread on Saturday with the combination of northerly winds around 10 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 30 mph and low level relative humidity being less than 30 percent.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Due to the likelihood of an easterly swell developing during the weekend and a persistent NE wind into early next week minor coastal flooding for some coastal locations cannot be ruled out. The best chance at waters levels approaching minor coastal flood thresholds would be for the south shore western back bays and western sound locations for mainly the late morning and late evening high tide cycles on Sunday and potentially on Monday.

Equipment
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6am EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6pm EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.