New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
| 1026 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure centered north of the waters will be in control for today and tonight. Low pressure approaches on Friday and impacts the waters Friday night through Saturday. High pressure will then return early next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
720am EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
High pressure centered north of the area will be in control for today and tonight. Low pressure approaches on Friday and impacts the region Friday night through Saturday. High pressure returns early next week, followed by another frontal system by midweek.
Near Term - Through Tonight
For this update refreshed hourly grids through this morning, mainly to better reflect cloud cover over easter half of the area. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.
High pressure settles over the area today providing dry conditions along with a lighter NE wind. BUFKIT profiles indicate a shallow layer of moisture below 3-4 kft. This should result in a fair amount of broken cloud cover by late morning and into the afternoon as any early sunshine leads to cloud formation. With a NE wind and clouds would expect temperatures to average at least a couple of degrees below normal, so thinking it prudent to stay away from any of the relatively warmer guidance for this afternoon.
For tonight will still be dealing with some moisture in the lower levels, essentially trapped below an inversion around 5 kft. Therefore thinking broken cloud cover by and large remains in place tonight with a light NE flow continuing. Some higher level clouds will attempt to gradually work in as well during the night. Minimum temperatures tonight should be primarily in the 40s, with a few upper 30s possible with breaks in the cloud cover across far northern and northwestern zones. The NYC metro will be in the upper 40s to around 50.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday
For Friday high pressure moves off to the east as the next storm system, a complex one begins to approach from the Mississippi Valley. This storm system will already be closed off as it approaches. The day will begin with mainly clouds with perhaps some broken sunshine from time to time. The mid levels will remain relatively dry throughout the day. Thus any precipitation by and large will hold off during the daylight hours on Friday. Surface pressure progs indicate that a SE flow will tighten towards the afternoon and evening. With a fair amount of clouds and an onshore wind would expect temperatures to average near normal. A round of gusty winds will become increasingly likely, more so for coastal sections into late Friday afternoon and Friday night. This next storm system for Friday night and into Saturday looks to bring another round of significant rainfall to the region. Rainfall will overspread the area from southwest to northeast starting either very late in the afternoon on Friday, or later, as the consensus points to the evening. It is doubtful that potential rainfall amounts from this system will approach the amounts experienced from the storm earlier in the week. The system will already be closed off, meaning that the best warm advection feed will initially exist just south of the area, and could get cut off to a degree and pushed east of the area into Saturday. A secondary low will likely develop east of the primary low right along the Northern Mid Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. The timing of this development will be important in determining just how much lift can get re- energized over the CWA, which in turn will be a determinant in how much rain falls over the region. There is fairly good agreement on the speed, and thus the overall timing of this system. The current thinking has the steadier rain ending sometime during the afternoon on Saturday, and perhaps by the early evening across northern most sections. An initial estimate of forecasted rainfall totals falls in the 1 to 2 inch range for the entire region, with some locally higher amounts not out of the question.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
The upper low should be located over W PA or near southwest portion of Upstate NY Saturday night. The system becomes an becomes an open wave on Sunday as the associated trough passes across the region. The deep moisture and lingering organized forcing should be located well to the east Saturday night, but cannot completely rule out a shower. A shower is also possible the first half of Sunday with the upper trough. Otherwise, dry conditions will be returning later Sunday into early next week
A cooler, drier air mass builds in for early next week, as zonal flow aloft and high pressure settles in. By midweek, a frontal system will approach from the Central Plains, with precipitation chances increasing again by Wednesday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continue across all ocean waters today with waves only decreasing to 5-7 ft. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) due to elevated seas will continue.nue for the eastern 2/3rds of the ocean through tonight with the western ocean zone momentarily having seas decrease to 4 ft. Then E-SE winds increase Friday into Friday night and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely to continue on all waters with increasing gusts into Friday evening. Seas will also build beginning on Friday morning, peaking Friday night into early Saturday, with 6-9 ft over the ocean waters. A period of gale force winds are also likely on the ocean waters Friday night into early Saturday, thus a gale watch has been issued. Winds should weaken to a degree by Saturday afternoon. However, ocean seas look to remain elevated through Sunday. Ocean seas should fall below 5ft by early Monday. Winds during this time frame should be below 20 kt.
Moderate to locally heavy rain should arrive by Friday evening and continue into Saturday morning. Lighter rain may continue into Saturday afternoon. Rainfall totals should average from 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Minor urban flooding is the main threat with this system especially given recent rainfall earlier this week, with fast-responding streams in NE NJ potentially reaching bankfull.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels will remain high from residual tidal piling from the departing low pressure system through this afternoon, possibly lingering into tonight. Minor coastal flooding is is likely along the Great South Bay early this morning with high tide. More widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with this afternoons high tide along the shoreline of southern Nassau and southwest Suffolk. Water levels have also remained high across the Great South Bay and locally moderate flooding is possible, specifically near the western portion of the Bay, specifically near Lindenhurst. Statements have been issued for southern Queens, the Lower NY Harbor, and eastern Suffolk. Water levels may just touch minor thresholds with this afternoon's high tide.
Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible with tonight's high tide, specially around the south shore back bays as well as the Great South Bay. More widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding and high surf/beach erosion are possible with the next storm system Friday into Saturday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1pm to 4pm EDT this afternoon for NYZ179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for NYZ080. NJ...None.
Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.