New York Harbor Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Occasional Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
514pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over Long Island on Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return for Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories issued earlier remain in place, with addition of western Suffolk to the advisory.
Low pressure over eastern NC continues to move up the coast, while strong high pressure over Maine retreats NE while supplying cold air to the region. Bands of moderate to heavy snow had overspread most of the region, well ahead of schedule, except for SE CT, and on the south fork of Long Island where precipitation at HTO changed to rain earlier. It is possible that precipitation there could briefly change back to snow as a heavier band moves in from offshore.
As this band lifts out this evening, precipitation should mix with or change to rain from NYC east. Areas farther north/west however will likely transition over to light freezing rain as warm/dry slot works its way northward. Up to 2 tenths of an inch ice accretion forecast for portions of the interior.
Winds between the approaching/intensifying low and the strong high to the NE will ramp up tonight, and expect gusts to at least 40 mph in NYC metro and along the coast, and higher across the forks of Long Island and coastal CT. Issued a high wind warning for eastern Suffolk where gusts up to 60 mph expected out on the forks, and 45-50 mph farther west into Suffolk and across coastal CT.
The low should be right along the NJ coast just S of NYC and Long Island by daybreak, with temps rising to the 40s along the coast and possibly to 50 across the forks of Long Island.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
As the low pulls away Fri, there may be another burst of snow on the back end across the interior zones NW of NYC as the upper low tracks thru and the column cools rapidly. A quick additional inch could accumulate over already icy areas.
For all areas, a quick increase in NW winds is expected after the passage of the low, with gusts up to 40 mph mainly NYC metro/coastal sections.
High temps should range from the upper 30s/lower 40s inland, to the mid 40s in NYC metro, to the upper 40s/lower 50s across eastern Long Island which should briefly get into the warm sector in the morning as the surface low moves across.
Skies should clear Fri afternoon as the low pulls away. Another period of clouds possible late day into the evening Fri with passage of a weaker upper trough, the mostly clear skies expected later Fri night. Fcst low temps range from the upper 20s well inland to mid/upper 30s NYC metro/Long Island.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
Through the long term period the Pacific/western ridge will remain while a trough remains across the central and eastern US. Northern stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance. Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave passes. Surface high pressure will be over the area for Thanksgiving as another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough. Temperatures will be moderating for Thanksgiving, still remaining below seasonal normals.
A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states. At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday.
Winds and seas should rapidly increase tonight. Storm force gusts 50-55 kt expected late this evening into the overnight between the approaching low and departing high, across the ocean waters and the eastern Sound/bays. Gales up to 40-45 kt expected on the remaining waters. Max seas should reach 14-17 ft on the ocean and 4-7 ft on Long Island Sound.
There could be a lull in winds early Fri morning as the surface low moves across, then NW gales expected daytime Fri on all waters as the low pulls away, with gusts 35-40 kt, and continuing on the ocean waters into Fri night, with Small Craft Advisory conds elsewhere.
Westerly winds and gusts will be diminishing through the day Saturday as low pressure departs to the northeast and high pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters. Winds and seas on the non ocean waters are likely to be below Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday morning. However, ocean seas will be on going at Small Craft Advisory levels, with wind gusts marginal. By late Saturday winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels Saturday night through Tuesday night with high pressure in control most of the time. A weak wave of low pressure moves north of the waters late Sunday through Monday
Liquid equivalent precipitation of 1.0-1.5 inches expected into Fri. Much of this across the interior will fall as snow or a wintry mix. With more of the precipitation on the wintry side, even at the coast, the urban and poor drainage flooding threat has diminished.
Dry weather is expected Fri afternoon into Saturday. No significant precipitation is expected Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions return for Monday through Thanksgiving Day
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Easterly Gale to Storm force winds will result in tidal departures of 3 ft above astronomical high tides around the times of high tide overnight into early Friday morning.
Widespread minor coastal flooding (1 to 2 ft above ground level) expected for vulnerable locales along the southern and eastern bays of LI, Jamaica Bay, and western Long Island Sound. Elsewhere, localized minor flooding expected along lower NY/NJ Harbor and SE Coastal CT.
Water levels are expected to fall significantly for the Friday afternoon high tide, but could have some residual minor flooding issues in eastern Great South Bay with a switch to westerly winds if water does not recede quickly enough. Elsewhere water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for Friday.
High surf of 8 to 12 ft along with elevated water levels will result in widespread beach erosion and flooding during the times of high tide tonight. Localized minor dune erosion is possible. Along western LI Sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may cause some splashover seawalls and exacerbate coastal flooding along shoreline areas.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for CTZ005>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for CTZ009>012.
Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for CTZ009>012.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4am to 8am EST Friday for CTZ009- 010. NY...High Wind Warning from 9pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for NYZ079-081.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 2am to 8am EST Friday for NYZ079- 081. Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for NYZ068>070. Winter Storm Warning until 10pm EST this evening for NYZ071. Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for NYZ072>075-176>179.
Wind Advisory from 9pm this evening to 6am EST Friday for NYZ078-080.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 4am to 8am EST Friday for NYZ071- 073-078-177. Winter Storm Warning until 10am EST Friday for NYZ067.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1am to 6am EST Friday for NYZ080- 178-179. Winter Weather Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for NYZ078- 080. NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 4am EST Friday for NJZ002-103. Winter Storm Warning until 10pm EST this evening for NJZ004- 104-105-107. Winter Weather Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for NJZ006-106-108.
Gale Warning until 6pm EST Friday for ANZ335-345. Storm Warning until 6am EST Friday for ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 6am EST Friday for ANZ338