New York Harbor Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds, Becoming Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Wave Detail: W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 419am EDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Synopsis High pressure builds of the area today and then moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches tonight and moves south towards the area early Friday before moving back north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday. The front moves back towards the area Saturday night. This complex frontal system remains near the area Sunday and Monday, before finally sliding east Monday night. High pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday. A frontal system from the west may begin to impact the area next Wednesday. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening High pressure builds south of the area with center moving towards the North Carolina coast. Slight negative pressure tendency across local region. A cold front moves into Great Lakes. Despite lots of sunshine, a cooler than normal day is expected with the westerly flow. Westerly flow expected during the day. Gusts expected, especially this afternoon and raised wind gust forecast above initial NBM values. Max temperatures generally upper 40s to lower 50s. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday Night Jet stream upper level situated well north of the area. Overall, on average, ridging in the mid levels. Not much in the way of rainfall. Mainly dry with a warming trend for the airmass. The high pressure area moves east and off the coast of North Carolina and out into Atlantic tonight. Cold front from Great Lakes approaches the region and eventually moves south into early Friday. Weak high pressure moves in briefly for Friday afternoon. The front will be moving farther north Friday afternoon through Saturday as a warm front before potentially pushing back south Saturday night. Lows for tonight use a combination of MET/MAV/NBM/NBM 50th percentile, more weight with NBM and NBM 50 percentile relatively warmer. Wanted relatively warmer values along coast because of partial onshore flow. Mesoscale models depict some shower activity late tonight. Slight chance to chance POPs. More shower activity potentially Friday night into early Saturday and again for late Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures forecast on a rising trend, especially Friday into Saturday with model 850mb temperatures showing an increase of around 6 to 7 degrees C. Used NBM 50th percentile for Friday and Saturday high temperatures, which were pretty consistent with the previous forecast. Upper 50s to lower 60s Friday and lower 70s to lower 80s for Saturday are the range of high temperature forecast for much of the region. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Monday night as a complex frontal system remains over the region. The long term period starts off with a frontal boundary south of the region. NBM temps from the mid 50s across the eastern portion of the region east to lower 60s to the west may be a few degrees too warm with a cool E-SE flow across the region. The front is forecast to lift closer to the area Sunday night and lift north of the area Monday morning. A mostly cloudy day is forecast which should limit highs to the upper 50s and lower 60s to the east and mid 60s to lower 70s to the west. However any afternoon peeks of sun could easily lead to temps several deg warmer than that. Cold front approaches on Monday and moves across the area Monday night will be followed by below normal temps for Tue-Wednesday next week. Expect drier conditions on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Another approaching frontal system late Wednesday could bring a cold rain, even some wet snow mixing in across the interior. Overall forecast confidence is below average through the entire long term period with multiple questions around frontal boundary positioning. Marine Ocean seas already right near 5 ft for southeast of Montauk. Expecting rest of ocean to get more in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range due to wind gusts this afternoon and tonight. This will linger into Friday morning. Non-ocean waters will also have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts late tonight into Friday morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for all but NY Harbor and Western LI Sound. After a brief lull in waves and wind gusts Friday afternoon and Friday night, expecting a trend up for these parameters for the weekend. Small craft conditions appear to be likely this weekend and into early next week as a frontal system moves across the area waters. Low pressure offshore may keep seas elevated for the first half of next week. Fire Weather Mainly dry conditions expected to continue over the next few days. Gusty westerly flow this afternoon and early Friday is forecast. Gusty southwesterly flow expected for Saturday. Some elevated fire spread potential for today with combination of low RH and gusty winds. This will be somewhat mitigated for Friday and Saturday with possible shower activity the prior night into early morning. Hydrology Less than a half inch of rain total with showers forecast through Saturday night. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 10am EDT Friday for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to noon EDT Friday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 10am EDT Friday for ANZ355. |
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