Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 3 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Tonight...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed And Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 204pm EDT Monday Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to prior forecasts. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered snow showers across portions of southern New England late today through midnight. - Milder Wed, then spring-like Thu, followed by showers accompanying a cold front Thu night into early Fri. - Behind the front, dry, but blustery and colder later Friday into Saturday KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered snow showers across portions of southern New England late today through midnight. Fairly impressive shortwave aloft, that is also associated with a pocket of cold air (500mb temperatures colder than -30C) will rotate across the region this evening into early overnight. Although it's coming through overnight, the cold air aloft will be enough to generate enough instability for scattered snow showers to develop, with activity waning after midnight. Just like summer time convection, not everyone will see these snow showers. Snow Squall Parameter is not overly impressive (values just above 1), but suggests the better chances for any briefly heavier snow showers will be across the western half of the area. Points further east may just see flurries. Accumulations will be light (generally less than 1/2") and be confined to those localized areas that see the brief heavier bursts. No impacts to roads are anticipated. On a side note, ahead of the main trough, a ribbon of vorticity aloft will result in a general area of light snow & rain that will traverse the region through 6pm, but also not have any real impacts. KEY MESSAGE 2...Milder Wed, then spring-like Thu, followed by showers accompanying a cold front Thu night into early Fri. Active upper air pattern will bringing a series of shortwave troughs through the region. The first short wave will move across the region Wednesday night. This first wave will have limited moisture and jet dynamics. Therefore, shower activity should be more scattered in coverage. Hence, not everyone will have measurable rainfall. WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) ahead of the short wave will result in milder temps Wed, with highs around 50, cooler near the south coast, in response to gusty SW winds. Morning sunshine likely gives way to afternoon clouds, in response to WAA pattern. Then spring-like warmth Thursday ahead of the next short wave. Highs should rise to around 60 away from the south coast, given another day of SW winds. This second wave moves through Thursday night into early Friday and has more moisture and forcing for ascent. Therfore expecting showers Thu night into early Fri to be more widespread. As previous forecaster noted, each shortwave (Wednesday night & again Thu ngt) will be accompanied by a robust low level SW jet. But given the timing, a nocturnal inversion will preclude these stronger winds aloft from mixing to the surface. KEY MESSAGE 3...behind the front, dry, but blustery and colder later Friday into Saturday. FROPA occurs sometime early Friday, followed by drier but blustery and colder conditions. Some of the model guidance (GFS (Global Forecast System) & UKMET) advects -12C air at 925 mb temps across SNE 12z Sat! Not very spring- like, then again, March in New England. Lows in the teens and 20s, highs only 35-40 Saturday. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday...High confidence. Northerly winds that were gusty earlier today are slowly decreasing, and have taken down the Small Craft Advisories for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. The trend will be for the winds to continue to diminish and then shift to NW later this evening. Winds continue to weaken Tuesday, and it's possible the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the more outer waters will be taken down prior to Tuesday afternoon, although seas will remain a little rough beyond that time. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251- 254>256. |
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