Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat And Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Through Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
403pm EDT Wednesday July 6 2022
High pressure supports dry and seasonable weather through Thursday night. Then the weather pattern turns cloudy and more unsettled Friday with more spotty, hit-or- miss showers. Sprawling high pressure then delivers a period of beautiful summer weather this weekend into early next week, with mild to warm days and cool nights, along with comfortable humidity. A cold front brings the next chance for widespread rains around Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
Tonight... * Tranquil weather, seasonably cool temps & comfortable humidity
Post frontal airmass overspreading the region this afternoon/early evening, with dew pts falling into the 50s from NW to SE, courtesy of a gusty NNW wind, eventually turning NNE then east later this evening. As high pressure builds into the region tonight, winds diminish, partly cloudy conditions and a relatively dry airmass with dew pts in the 50s, will support comfortable overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. The exception will be in the urban areas and along the south coast, where min temps will bottom out in the 60-65 range. Some patchy valley fog is possible. Otherwise, ideal weather for early July.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
* Dry, seasonable temps & comfortable humidity continue
Thursday... Subtle height rises across SNE will provide weak subsidence and dry weather. Cross sections reveal lots of dry air aloft, so while SCT- BKN CU is likely Thur afternoon, not expecting any showers to grow from this CU given dry air aloft. Thus, another dry day with temps slightly lower Thu given SE winds around offshore high. Max temps Thu afternoon should settle somewhere between 75-80, coolest along the coast and islands.
Thursday night... Ridge of high pressure lingers over SNE, providing dry weather, light winds and seasonably cool temps. Some patchy valley fog possible.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
Highlights... * A few scattered showers on Friday, but no washouts expected.
* Gorgeous weekend for outdoor activities, with almost an early fall like feel with below normal temps but plentiful sunshine.
* Potentially turning unsettled next week, but plenty of forecast uncertainty remains.
Details... Friday... What has looked like a washout or widespread soaking rainfall on Friday earlier this week has now fizzled out into possible scattered rainfall with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. We have been stuck in a dry and cool pattern with a persistent H5 ridge set up to our west and weak pieces of shortwave energy bringing occasional chances for rain and thunderstorms. Indeed, the strangely quiet start to summer has been reflected in the Drought Monitor, with our entire region either in D0 (abnormally dry) or D1 (moderate drought). Put simply, model guidance typically takes time to eventually catch up with the reality on the ground as supercomputers ingest the real- time hydrologic and meteorological parameters. And with a dry boundary layer, generally take with a grain of salt wet solutions especially outside of the CAM guidance range. The other question to ask oneself is, does the upper level pattern support the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast output? In this case, we have a positively tilted H5 trough that simply turns neutral too late for us to realistically get widespread beneficial rainfall on Friday. Instability wise, there could be just enough diurnal heating for a few rumbles of thunder or widely scattered thunderstorms, but no risk of severe weather.
Saturday into Sunday... Behind the cold front late Friday, an anomalously cool and dry air mass settles into the region with a sprawling surface high pressure in control. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) fall to below 0.5 inches, near the minimum of moving average according to Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology for the former Chatham, MA upper air site. A look at Bufkit soundings for various sites across the CWA shows deep mixing up to 850-800mb, so lower dew points at top of the boundary layer will be mixed down during the day. So lowered the dew points to the 10th percentile of blended guidance this weekend. Also lowered overnight lows to 25th percentile of blended guidance with the cool, dry air mass and light winds making for good radiational cooling. With 925mb temps in the mid to upper teen celsius, expect daytime highs to be slightly below normal in the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast and overnight lows falling into the upper 40s to low 50s for many inland locations.
Monday into Wednesday... Forecast confidence lowers into next week but there are initial indications that we may be heading into a more unsettled pattern with the upper level pattern favoring more rainfall and storms to develop near and across our region. Mainly stuck to blended guidance at this point given we are so far out.
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight/Thu/Thu night...high confidence.
Gusty NNW winds late Wednesday become NE Wednesday evening and diminish, then becoming east Wednesday night. Winds become light SE Thu and Thu night. Dry weather and good vsby, along with tranquil seas thru the period.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.