Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun And Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Mon Through Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 721am EDT Fri May 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in strong gusty winds on Saturday, especially across eastern coastal areas. Wind Advisory issued for northeast MA, east coast and Cape and Islands. Adjacent areas to coast still being considered for headlines. Held off due to larger uncertainty. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry for first half of today with showers developing late afternoon to early evening. Low pressure system brings rain and gusty strong winds tonight and Saturday. - Mainly dry Sunday. Unsettled conditions return by Monday continuing through mid week with periodic chances for showers and cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry for first half of today with showers developing late afternoon to early evening. Low pressure system brings rain and gusty strong winds tonight and Saturday. There is a good consensus among ensemble guidance for a blocky upper level pattern to set up over the northeast today through early next week. Several shortwaves move through the broad cyclonic flow aloft bringing periodic chances for showers/rain. The first wave features an anomalous closed upper low that drops south across southern New England tonight into Saturday. The first half of today should remain dry with scattered warm frontal showers developing later in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will likely be similar to Thursday in the upper 60s to low 70s, with some locations in the mid 70s in the CT Valley. Showers become more widespread this evening and tonight with a few waves of rain. There is very marginal instability present, which may support a few embedded weak storms or downpours. There may be a lull sometime overnight in between waves of showers. As the low pressure rotates through it will shift another round of showers Saturday morning. Showers slowly diminish as the low exits further offshore mid to late afternoon. It's possible for showers to linger as late as the evening for the outer Cape/Islands. For rain totals, ensembles range rain totals 0.20" to 1.1" across the 25th to 75th percentile range with the higher amounts favored in northeast MA. While we are already in cool troughy flow, the passage of this deep upper low will shift a core of anomalously cold air aloft across the region Saturday. This will bring us a fairly cool day for late-May with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. With the timing of the colder air and the showers, some model guidance hints at potential for a few snowflakes mixing in at the higher elevations. If the cold air arrives in a similar period of better precipitation rates some spots may cool enough to mix in some wet flakes. The NAM has shown the strongest signal for this, but also shows a colder airmass in place with a wider footprint compared to other guidance (Temps - upper 30s). So overall, can't rule out a wintry mix in the highest elevations of the interior although little impact expected. The bigger concern with this system is the strong winds. As the surface low pressure tracks offshore, it deepens with a tightened pressure gradient and 45-60 kt 925mb LLJ. If winds mix efficiently, strong gusty N to NE winds will blanket the region. Ensemble guidance ranges gusts 35-45 mph with potential for isolated higher gusts (45-55 mph) along the east coast and Cape and Islands. This seems reasonable given that the LLJ jet more likely shifts across east southern New England through the day. The degree of mixing is still uncertain which has led to spread across guidance in gust magnitude and the extent inland the higher magnitude gusts may extend. Across ensemble guidance, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has been consistently strong with gusts compared to the GEFS. HREF mean gusts show some areas across the east above 45 mph, mainly confined to the coastal areas and Cape/Islands. Right now the risk for Advisory criteria is greater across northeast MA, extending down the east coastal region and into the south coast/block island, southeast MA and Cape/Islands. Cape and Islands and the near-coastal areas have the greater confidence at the moment based on guidance, so went with Advisory to start. Remaining areas just outside those zones will need to be considered today. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry Sunday. Unsettled conditions return by Monday continuing through mid week with periodic chances for showers and cooler temperatures. A few more waves move through the upper trough pattern aloft beyond Sunday into early next week. There is still spread in the details of the waves such as the timing, but they will support periodic chances for showers at least through mid-week. There is a better consensus on showers Sunday night into Monday as a closed low tracks across the region. Remaining days early week could see scattered showers, perhaps an isolated storm. 850mb temperatures anomalies lean below normal early next week likely yielding temperatures in the 60s and low 70s through Wednesday. There are signs of the blocky pattern breaking down later next week which should help warm temperatures back up. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight... Generally tranquil with wave heigheights between 1 and 3 feet for most of the waters. Winds from the NW between 5 and 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Winds and seas increasing from the north early Saturday morning. Saturday into Saturday Night... Gale Warning for all the waters on Saturday as a strong low pressure system tracks across the region bringing gusty N-NE winds. There is even a chance for areas of storm force winds with a stronger area of low pressure. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory from 10am to 8pm EDT Saturday for MAZ007-015- 016. Wind Advisory from 10am Saturday to 8pm EDT Sunday for MAZ019-021>024. RI...None. Marine Gale Warning from 2am to 8pm EDT Saturday for ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256-280>283. |
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