Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog. Rain With Isolated Tstms. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri And Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Sat And Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun And Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Except 4 To 6 Ft At The Bay Entrance. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 754am EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 Synopsis A cold front passes through our region today, bringing much needed rainfall. Much cooler conditions follow Thursday and Friday with dry weather as well. Monitoring a possible coastal storm early next week, but it remains uncertain if it will track far enough north to bring us some rain and gusty winds. Near Term - Through Tonight Key Messages: * Rain arrives this morning as a cold front moves into our region. Periods of light to moderate rain expected. A cold front is expected to finally move off the coast late this afternoon. Until it does, looking at a widespread rainfall, especially this morning for most in southern New England. Still not overly concerned about thunderstorm potential, but it is there. Not seeing much upstream lightning, but did keep a mention in the forecast. Still thinking most areas receive between one half to one inch of rainfall. Locally higher amounts are possible should thunderstorms develop. This should not lead to any flash flooding, although common poor drainage areas could see large puddles, especially leaf litter starting to collect with fall underway. Not ideal for the morning commute, do take your time heading out the door. Conditions improve from west to east during this afternoon. Noticeably cooler, but still near normal for this time of year. Strong cold air advection behind this front likely means the highest temperatures will be this morning, despite the increasing afternoon sunshine. Short Term - Thursday Key Messages: * Clearing overnight with chilly temperatures. Another large high pressure arrives over the Great Lakes tonight, and heads our way Thursday. Temperatures trend below normal tonight into Thursday. Would not be surprised if a few of the high elevation communities across northwest MA (at or above 1,500 ft) dip down to the freezing mark. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday Key Messages... * Dry/much cooler Fri. Highs in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Lows Thu night in the 20s/30s with frost/freeze conditions * Remaining dry Sat with highs moderating into the middle-upper 60s * Potential for a Hybrid coastal storm to bring some rain/gusty winds early next week, but may remain south keeping us dry Details... Thursday Night and Friday... High pressure builds overhead Thu night setting the stage for an excellent night of radiational cooling. Given the dry/cool airmass overhead, thinking overnight low temps will mainly be in the 20s and 30s. This will result in our first fairly widespread frost/freeze conditions across southern New England. Posted a Freeze Watch for areas where the frost/freeze program continues. Plenty of sunshine follows for Fri and as mid level temperatures moderate a tad. Expecting highs to recover into the lower 60s. Much lighter winds on Fri compared to Thu, so it will feel milder by Fri afternoon. Saturday... Upper trough shifts east of the region along with high pressure at the surface, but it will remain dry. This allows a return flow of milder air to work in from the southwest. Highs should recover Sat into the middle to upper 60s. Sunday through Tuesday... The forecast remains quite uncertain early next week. We will be watching a potential Hybrid coastal storm off the Mid Atlantic/southeast coast. There is considerable spread on the models and their ensembles on whether or not this system will get far enough north to bring some rain/gusty sometime Sunday through Tuesday or stays south and we remain dry. We still need a few more days until we have a better idea. For what its worth, the one thing we noticed was that the EPS tended to be more suppressed compared to the EPS AI version, which brings the rain significantly further north into our region. We should also mention that if the storm does come far enough north, there will be a minor coastal flooding risk as we will just be coming off king tides. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Thursday...High confidence. Southwest wind and gusts are increasing ahead of an approaching cold front, which will swing across the waters late this afternoon into this evening, along with a sharp wind shift to the northwest. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots are expected and seas 3 to 5 feet. Small Craft Advisory to all waters, with the exception of Narragansett Bay. Moderate rain will also result in lower visibilities. Winds shift to the NW Wednesday with gusts between 20 and 30 knots and may even see a few gusts around 35 knots tonight in the strong cool advection pattern. Not enough confidence to upgrade to a Gale Warning at this time. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for CTZ002>004. MA...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for MAZ005-009>014-017-018-020-021. RI...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT Thursday for ANZ230>235- 237-250-251-254>256. |
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