Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night And Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun And Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156pm EDT Tuesday September 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The River Flood Warning for the Taunton River at Bridgewater was extended into Wednesday based on latest NERFC river forecasts. Otherwise no significant changes. .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and warmer weather through Friday. - Passing frontal boundary brings light rain showers Friday night into early Saturday, then drying out Saturday with onshore breezes for the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover and possible showers return Sunday, but it is uncertain how far north rain would extend. - Dry weather, but blustery and a much cooler, Fall-like airmass returns for early to mid next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and warmer weather through Friday. No big changes to model guidance for the next few days. The overall synoptic scenario that will play out is that a rather weak surface high pressure will move across the region on Wednesday and then strengthen and establish itself off the East Coast for Thursday and Friday. As this happens, the northwest winds we currently have on the backside of the nor'easter will transition to light westerly Wednesday and then to southwesterly Thursday and Friday. This will all help to transport warmer temperatures at low and mid levels. Aloft, ridging will also develop along the east coast. The net result will be dry weather through Friday. However we won't be seeing fully sunny days to go along with the high pressure. There will still be some residual low level moisture on Wednesday thanks to that nor'easter that will result in areas of strato-cu. That will especially be the case across eastern areas. Still there will be more sunshine than we got today. On Thursday, it looks like mid and high level clouds will flow across the region from the storminess across the central part of the country. Friday will probably end up as the sunniest of the days. As mentioned, temperatures will be warming. 925mb temperatures today are in the 11-13C range and will increase to 12-15C Wednesday, 16-18C Thursday and then 20-22C on Friday. If we had full sunshine and excellent boundary layer mixing, adding about 10C to those values would give a good estimate for daytime highs. That won't quite be the case, but still enough to push temperatures into the low 70s Wednesday, mid-upper 70s Thursday and low 80s Friday. Stuck with the NBM blend for those temperatures as they seemed reasonable enough. Overnight lows will also remain above normal, and Thursday night most of the area will stay in the 60s. Lows around 50F are normal for the end of September/start of October. KEY MESSAGE 2...Passing frontal boundary brings light rain showers Friday night into early Saturday, then drying out Saturday with onshore breezes for the Cape and Islands. Cloud cover and possible showers return Sunday, but it is uncertain how far north rain would extend. A progressive cold frontal boundary moves in from the Gt Lakes/northern Appalachians Fri night into early on Sat AM, which will bring an end to the spell of late-week warmer temperatures. Although the front looks to have some moisture with it (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.4" per 15z SREF mean), the better forcing passes to the north and weakens/becomes sheared out with time. Expect there to be clouds and light showers but total rains look to be around a quarter inch or less with this frontal boundary. We get into strong surface ridging building in from the northwest in the wake of the frontal boundary on Saturday; with the frontal boundary stalling south of the Long Island waters. Expect mostly sunny conditions, with a mix of sun and clouds and northeast breezes toward southeast MA/eastern RI, Cape Cod and the Islands which will keep those areas cooler than further inland. Highs mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 for most, but cooler low 60s for highs for the Cape. Lows in the mid 40s for interior Southern New England with good radiational cooling, but in the low to mid 50s near the coast where NE winds still hang on helping to keep the PBL more mixed and less prone to decouple. Sunday into Sunday night is the more uncertain element of the weekend forecast. The stalled frontal boundary begins to draw northward an influx of rich moisture from the southeast US states with weak/nebulous 500 mb vort energy riding along it. This shield of rain will be moving into the drier antecedent airmass in place over the Northeast states; 12z guidance conveys uncertainty how far north this moisture/rain makes it, which is seemingly tied to the extent to which the existing surface ridge weakens, if it does so at all. The best chance for rain showers on Sunday looks to be for the southern third of Southern New England with less of a chance the further north one goes with ridging still holding on, but will maintain NBM-based slight to chance Probability of Precipitation CWA-wide for now until there is more congruence in the models. KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry weather, but blustery and a much cooler, Fall-like airmass returns for early to mid next week. The frontal boundary to our south moves offshore early on Monday, and behind it comes a seasonably strong mid/upper level trough and associated 1030 mb Canadian anticyclone into New England. This feature brings dry weather but increasingly breezy conditions and also brings with it the coldest low-level airmass seen to this point in early-autumn. By 12z Tuesday, our 925 mb temperatures drop to a chilly -2C! Climatological high temperature normals for this time of year are in the mid 60s, and we could run some 5-10 degrees cooler than those normals into early next week, with cooler breezes too. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overall high confidence. As the nor'easter continues to pull away, winds and seas continue to subside. The remaining rougher sea conditions across our eastern marine zones have finally fallen below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds. High pressure will become established off the east coast, setting up southwest flow across the region beginning later tomorrow and continuing into Friday. We may start to see seas building toward 5 feet by late Thursday/early Friday across the southern waters due to the sustained southwest winds. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine None. |
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