Narragansett Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Morning, Then Showers Likely This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog. Showers Likely In The Evening. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Tue Through Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 730am EDT Sat May 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Trends have shifted the main rain axis father south, so widespread rainfall Sunday night into Monday now looks less likely than before. .KEY MESSAGES... - Mother’s Day weekend looks split, with widespread showers and cooler temperatures today followed by somewhat warmer and mainly drier conditions Sunday. - Notable changes to the rainfall forecast Sunday night into Monday, widespread rainfall is looking less likely. - Briefly dry Tuesday, perhaps turning unsettled Wednesday into Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1...Mother’s Day weekend looks split, with widespread showers and cooler temperatures today followed by somewhat warmer and mainly drier conditions Sunday. As an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes, a warm front lifts north of southern New England this morning. Increasing large-scale forcing combined with a strengthening southerly low-level jet will support scattered showers developing during the morning hours, becoming widespread from west to east during the afternoon and early evening as the main shortwave and pre-frontal trough approach the region. This is captured well by the 00z suite of high-res CAMs and aligns well with NBM Probability of Precipitation for this morning and evening. As a moistening airmass overspreads the region, a strengthening southerly low-level jet develops this afternoon into Saturday evening, enhancing lift and focusing moisture transport across southern New England. Near the nose of the LLJ, mainly across RI and southeast MA, modest elevated instability may support brief heavy downpours and an isolated embedded thunderstorm; however, widespread thunder is not expected. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase to around 0.8–1.0 inches per the 00z HREF, near climatological normals for early May. Ensemble guidance continues to show a moderate chance of a beneficial wetting rain, with GEFS probabilities around 40–50 percent for amounts over 0.50 inches and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble probabilities of 70–90 percent across coastal RI and southeast MA. This supports rainfall amounts of 0.30–0.60 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in heavier showers or any embedded convection. Flooding concerns remain low given recent dry conditions. Clouds, onshore flow, and rainfall will keep temperatures cool, with highs mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Mild and somewhat humid conditions persist tonight with lows only falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s amid continued low clouds and areas of fog. Conditions improve heading into Sunday as subtle mid-level height rises support quieter and milder weather for Mother’s Day. While southwest to west-southwest flow persists, a notably drier airmass is not expected to move into southern New England. In fact, dewpoints climb into the low to mid 50s, making it feel somewhat more humid compared to the much drier conditions observed late this week. Given lingering moisture, embedded shortwave energy within the flow, and an approaching cold front, cannot completely rule out a passing afternoon shower or thunderstorm, as a few hundred J/kg of CAPE may develop. That said, Sunday does not appear to be a washout, though those with outdoor plans should remain weather aware. Afternoon highs have trended a few degrees lower, mainly due to the amount of cloud cover; nevertheless, highs remain comfortable in the upper 60s to lower 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Notable changes to the rainfall forecast Sunday night into Monday, widespread rainfall is looking less likely. There is a notable change to the forecast as the previously advertised second round of beneficial rainfall late Sunday night into Monday is looking less likely. A mid-level trough and embedded shortwave move into the Northeast, with the best forcing now shifting south of southern New England. A surface low is expected to develop southeast of the Benchmark (40N, 70W) before tracking into the North Atlantic. Model guidance over the past 24 hours has shown a notable southward shift in the axis of precipitation, mainly offshore of southern New England, though areas from New Haven to Woonsocket to Boston and points southeast have the greatest potential for rainfall, albeit less than previously expected. GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are in fairly good agreement, with probabilities of 24-hour rainfall greater than 0.50 inches now below 30 percent. Nantucket and outer Cape Cod maintain higher probabilities in the 50–60 percent range. One outlier remains the NAM 12 km, which continues to depict a more widespread rainfall solution. That said, there remain low chances of precipitation across interior southern New England, with any activity more likely in the form of diurnally driven showers rather than a widespread stratiform rain event. Temperatures Monday afternoon trend 8–12 degrees cooler than Sunday, resulting in a noticeably cooler feel. KEY MESSAGE 3...Briefly dry Tuesday, perhaps turning unsettled Wednesday into Thursday. The mid-level trough shifts offshore on Tuesday, with mid-level ridging developing in its wake. Flow aloft turns north-northwest, advecting lower humidity and cooler temperatures into the region, leading to a cool but sunny day. This is short-lived, as unsettled conditions may return by Wednesday and continue into Thursday as another mid-level trough and embedded shortwave move through the Northeast, though confidence in timing and impacts remains low given the longer forecast range. High temperatures remain near to slightly below climatological normals for mid-May, moderating into the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday through Thursday. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. An area of low pressure tracks well inland on Saturday, a warm front lifting north during the day and periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms. A wind shift to the S-SSE and increasing wind speeds 15 to 20 kt and gust 25+ kt. Seas increasing from S to N as well throughout the day 4 to 7 ft leading to a Small Craft Advisory today into early Sunday. SW to S wind Sunday with gusts less than 20 kt and seas below 5 ft. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2am EDT Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8am EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256. |
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