Rhode Island Sound Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Rain.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain/Snow.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night Through Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
342pm EST Monday Nov 11 2019
A strong cold front will cross our region Tuesday with some light rain or showers, which will likely end as a brief period of snow along with rapidly falling temperatures. Record cold along with windy conditions follow Tuesday night into Wednesday, with wind chills dropping to between 5 below and 10 above zero. Temperatures will remain well below normal Thursday, but with much less wind. A brief moderation occurs by Friday, but unseasonably cold weather returns by Saturday behind another cold front.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Deep upper trough digging over the Western Great Lakes with heigheights well below normal. This will turn the westerly upper flow over us to come out of the southwest. This should stall the southward progress of a cold front over our area and even push it back to the north. Radar showed a few light showers over far northern MA during the afternoon. This may continue into the evening, but as the upper flow turns it is likely these showers will shift north of our area.
Upper jet moving through this southwest flow will approach us later tonight, generating an area of lift later tonight and generating some showers at least and possibly a broader area of rain. The best chance of wet weather will be in Western MA and adjacent CT, while Southeast MA may escape the wet weather during the night.
A 50-kt low level southwest jet will move over the waters and may clip the South Coast areas. This would suggest gusts to 30 kt later tonight along our coastal areas including the Cape and Islands.
Wide range of temperatures tonight, but all of them above freezing. Northern MA temps in the 40s with dew points in the 30s...expect min temps in the north to reach the mid to upper 30s. Southern areas of MA-RI-CT reached the lower 60s with dew points in the mid 40s to low 50s...expect min temps in the south to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
Overall... Upper trough approaches from the Great Lakes Tuesday and moves over New England Tuesday night. It will bring much below normal 500-mb heigheights and temperatures.
Tuesday... Surface low pressure wave passes across New England during the morning and midday. Operational model positions bring it either across Western MA or passing north of MA. That would place most of MA in the warm sector and suggest precipitation as showers rather than a steady rain. PW values (Precipitable Water values) top out around 1 inch, which is above normal but not excessively so. So we expect rain/showers during the morning and midday, ending as the low moves off to the northeast and swings a cold front across our area. Cold air moving in behind the cold front may arrive fast enough to convert the last of the showers over to snow, but the expected Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for that part of the storm should be limited resulting in amounts less than an inch in most places, but possibly 1-2 inches on the East Slopes of the Berkshires.
Temperatures will show a non-diurnal pattern, with warmest temps in the morning, then getting colder late morning west and afternoon east as the cold front moves past. Morning highs will be just a few degrees higher than the overnight lows, with temperatures falling through the 30s and upper 20s in the west and through the 40s and upper 30s in the east.
Cold advection will support mixing of strong wind gusts to the surface with values of 25 to 35 kts/30 to 40 mph available for mixing.
Tuesday night... The last of the rain/snow tapers off over Cape Cod and vcnty early Tuesday night. Colder drier air advects in on northwest winds during the night. Expect clearing skies from west to east during this time with continued 30 to 40 mph wind gusts. Temperatures will fall to the teens in most spots, which is at or near record territory for min temps Wednesday morning.
Wind chills will be in the teens in the evening and single numbers either side of zero late at night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Highlights... * Windy with record cold possible Wednesday
* Wind Chills between 5 below and 10 above zero Wednesday morning
* Still unseasonably chilly on Thu, but with much less wind
* Briefly milder Fri, before turning much colder again by Sat
Details... Expecting temperatures for this portion of the forecast to remain below normal. For the case of Wednesday and Wednesday night, make that well below normal. Continued with a forecast for record minimum high temperatures Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday night should approach the existing records. Will need to monitor the timing and magnitude of the colder air Wednesday night. Should radiational cooling conditions be more ideal than currently thought, those records could be challenged.
A little bit of a warming trend Thursday into Friday, but still below normal. Another surge of colder air for Saturday, followed by another slow warmup Sunday into Monday.
Dry weather will be in place Wednesday into Thursday as a high pressure passes by southern New England. Will need to consider more showers sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday morning within the modest warm advection pattern. These showers would be mainly towards southeastern MA and RI. Thinking most of these showers will be in the form of rain, although some snow is possible, depending upon timing.
High pressure nearby should mean another period of dry weather Friday night into Sunday. Another low pressure may approach from the south Sunday into Monday, providing an increasing risk for some light precipitation Sunday afternoon into Monday. This timing is not yet certain, and could even be slower. It is also possible that high pressure holds on across northern New England a bit longer, and steers this low pressure out to sea.
Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...High confidence.
Tonight... Winds will shift from the South and Southwest and increase to 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 30 kt across the southern waters around or after midnight. Winds E of Cape Ann may remain East- Southeast for a time but should shift from the southwest toward morning. Seas will be less than 4 feet early at night, then build to 5-8 feet on the exposed waters. Highest values should be on the southern outer waters. Mainly good visibility.
Tuesday... Southwest winds shift out of the west-northwest midday as a cold front sweeps across the waters. Expect afternoon winds 20-25 kt with gusts 35-40 kt. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of the waters. Visibility restrictions in rain/showers/fog especially in the afternoon. Seas will remain at 5 to 9 feet on all exposed waters.
Tuesday night... Cold front moves out to sea. Any precipitation should end and skies will clear. However winds will continue at gale force through the night. Seas will be 5 to 10 feet on all exposed waters.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Saturday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Record Low Min Temps for Wednesday Nov 13
Boston 14/1883 Hartford 18/2001 Providence 20/2001 Worcester 15/1986
Record Low Max Temps for Wednesday Nov 13
Boston 36/1874 Hartford 33/1911 Providence 37/1911 Worcester 32/1962,2013
Record Low Min Temps for Thursday Nov 14
Boston 16/1905 Hartford 15/1986 Providence 16/1905 Worcester 10/1986
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Gale Warning from 1pm Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254-255. Gale Warning from 3pm Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 10am Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for ANZ256.