Marine Weather Net

Rhode Island Sound Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5  KNOTS

MON

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ235 Forecast Issued: 1001 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
This Afternoon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Patchy Fog. Patchy Drizzle. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.
Tonight...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Patchy Drizzle In The Evening.
Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Wed...S Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Wed Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Likely.
Thu...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Thu Night...N Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1011am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Synopsis
Rain ends this morning as a low pressure moves northeast and away from our region. However, the clouds appear to linger through a large part of the upcoming week, with better chances for steady rains Tuesday and Thursday. Temperatures for the workweek are above normal, but start to trend cooler by next weekend.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Update: 10AM

Forecast remains largely unchanged, some drizzle remains across eastern Bristol County and most of Plymouth County. Otherwise, clouds have become broken across northern Worcester Hills and across much/if not all of the Connecticut River Valley. Temps are responding well to the sunshine, KBDL has jumped 5 degrees in the last two hours. Afternoon highs are still expected to climb well into the upper 50s in this location. Still much cooler from Cape Ann to Cape Cod, here temperatures are likely stuck in the 40s to 50 degrees.

Previous Discussion.

A low pressure move off to the northeast of our region today, gradually dragging the rainfall with it. Really like the latest NationalBlend timing, although even that was a little slow when compared to radar trends. Thus, bridged the gap between the two during the early morning hours. Currently thinking that back edge of the rainfall is just east of a line from Cape Ann and outer Cape Cod by 7 AM. A few lingering pockets of drizzle or showers are possible into mid morning though.

Just some weak mid level ridging to coincide with the increasing surface pressure. Model sounding show a 1-2 kft thick saturated layer trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. Thus, while there may be some breaks of sunshine late today, especially across the western half of southern New England, clouds should be more dominant than not. That said, the little bit of sunshine we do see should be enough to boost temperatures slightly higher than yesterday.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Monday
High pressure starts to build into our region from the north tonight, and continues into Monday. However, the core of this high pressure should remain well to our northeast. Thus, while we should remain dry most of the time tonight and Monday, the subsidence is not quite strong enough to suppress the clouds. These clouds will moderate our temperatures, by not letting them lower at night, but also not letting things warm up quite as much during the day. Expecting low temperatures tonight fairly close to what we be the normal high temperatures for early March. This higher starting point should maintain above normal high temperatures Monday.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
Key Points

* Mainly cloudy weather this week with above normal temps through Wednesday

* Light to moderate rain Tuesday into Wednesday morning

* Moderate to heavy rain possible Wednesday night through Thursday, while temperatures turn more seasonable

Tuesday

Upper level flow becomes southwest with a weak disturbance moving through Tuesday into Wednesday. Another weak low pressure center will accompany the weak upper level disturbance. Guidance is starting to show more consistency on timing and track of this low except for the NAM. The NAM is a bit slower and tracks the low farther SE compared to the GFS (Global Forecast System) and EURO. There remains a large amount of spread in ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals with the 25th-75th percentiles now ranging from 0.30 to 0.95 inches. This system will have plenty of moisture to work with as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) jump into the 1.1-1.3 inch range. Highs Tuesday have trended cooler only in the mid to upper 40s now due to continued cool easterly flow.

Wednesday

The weak low departs to the north, while a stronger low begins to move north from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Surface winds turn SW in the morning and should allow the low levels to dry out a bit. This could mean some sun breaking out Wednesday before more moisture arrives Wednesday evening. Models have trended high temps warmer topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday night - Thursday

A southern stream shortwave trough looks to intensify as it exits to the NE from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a northern stream trough dips south into northern New England. This brings a stronger coastal low to the area sometime Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence in this portion of the forecast still remains low due to moderate spread in guidance along with run-to-run variability. This system does look to bring a soaking rain to SNE with moderate ensemble probs of 40-60% for 1 inch of rain, and low probs of 10-20% for 2 inch of rain. Behind this low, a strong cold front could drop temperatures under freezing thursday night which could introduce some mixed precipitation in the high terrain. High temps trend cooler again Thursday only in the low to mid 40s.

Friday and Saturday

Upper level ridge and high pressure build in briefly allowing for a brief period of dry weather ahead of another potent low pressure system. Confidence on the timing and track of this low remains very low at this time with this being a week out. High temps look to remain seasonable in the low to mid 40s.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday...Moderate confidence.
Expecting winds to diminish later this morning. Wind gusts did reach gale force briefly just after midnight. But given the expected trend, will continue with the Small Craft Advisory headlines. A low pressure moving east of the waters will permit seas to gradually subside. Visibility improves marginally today, with rainfall being replaced with fog. More substantial visibility improvement tonight into Monday, although some fog could return during the early morning hours Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely.

Hydrology
While widespread rainfall has largely come to an end this morning, will still need to watch area waterways. River Flood Warnings already issued for the River at Hope Valley, the Pawtuxet River at Cranston, and the Pawcatuck River at Westerly. There may be additional warnings issued later today as more complete rainfall totals become av available.

NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EST Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Monday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Monday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for ANZ256.