Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds. Snow. Light Freezing Spray After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow In The Morning. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And N 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 10 To 14 Ft. A Chance Of Snow In The Evening With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 145am EST Fri Feb 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Forecast remains on track for 4 to 8 inches of snow across much of the area starting Friday afternoon through Friday night. Mesoscale models have come into better agreement on timing. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Difficult travel is likely across south-central New Hampshire for the Friday evening commute as moderate to heavy snow pushes in from the west. Moderate to heavy snow will continue into western Maine towards the end of the Friday evening commute with several inches possible by Saturday morning. 2. We continue to monitor trends of a coastal low pressure system that will be passing Sunday night and Monday. Confidence is holding steady that related impacts (light snow and gusty winds) look limited and likely confined to the coastal plain. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface low over Illinois early this morning will track northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes this evening with a secondary low forming southeast of Long Island, NY. Warm air advection aloft will produce a NW to SE band of Fgen forcing at 700 mb that will produce a northeastward advancing band of moderate to heavy snow. This band moves across New Hampshire late Friday afternoon that reaches southwest Maine towards the end of the Friday evening commute. This signal is captured well in the WPC Snowband Probability Tracker adding confidence for a laterally translating snowband with this Fgen forcing at 700 mb. The latest HREF mean suggests that snowfall rates of 0.75 to 1.5 inches per hour will be possible with this band as it swiftly moves across SW NH into central NH between 4pm and 7 PM. While previously outliers, the 00Z NAM/Nam3K have come in line with other mesoscale models leading to higher confidence in timing. Models are generally in good agreement that this band will start to weaken as it reaches far western Maine while snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour will remain possible between 7pm and 11 PM. These times reference the snow band while some accumulating snow is expected ahead of the band. The bulk of the storm total snowfall will occur with this band through the first half of tonight. Surface temperatures will be near or above freezing at precipitation onset with some rain to start possible across southeast NH and coastal York County. This along with lower snow ratios have kept snow totals down here with no changes to the going Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warnings. Similar to the previous forecast, latest round of model guidance suggest thermal profiles will support mostly an all snow event with the warm nose staying south of the NH/MA border. Will need to monitor trends in a secondary band of frontogenesis that develops around 850 mb as the coastal low starts to deepen. Some mesoscale models such as the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) suggest this Fgen could bring another burst of snowfall into southern NH and coastal SW Maine that could push snow totals upwards of 6 inches. Overall snow totals have not changed much since the previous forecast package with a swath of 4 to 8 inches across much of NH into western Maine with amounts decreasing near the Canadian Border and east of Augusta. A compact upper low will transition to an open wave as it moves overhead late tonight through Saturday morning. This will allow for continued light snowfall into Saturday morning. Light snow will end by mid day with afternoon highs ranging from the 20s north to mid 30s south. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Addressing the elephant in the room right off the bat, global model camps and their AI counterparts have taken notable jumps northwestward again this evening. The wave that digs in and generates the low pressure of interest is just getting into the Pacific Northwest and sampling through the RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) network or otherwise is likely giving the models a different idea about the upper air pattern then they originally had. This is going to make the next several model runs quite interesting to watch to see if they actually hold this trend. However, for our area the worst case scenario still looks to be just a glancing blow. Even with this new idea of a closer track, the result is consistently maybe an inch or two of accumulating snowfall for the coastal plain. 20/01Z NBM probabilities of measurable snowfall have increased to 50% for southern New Hampshire and far southern Maine, increasing to 70% along the eastern Massachusetts border. Probabilities for greater than an inch have increased to 30-40%, with 20% probabilities extending into the foothills. This limits any impacts to potentially slick travel through the population corridor for the Monday morning commute, but certainly not anything unmanageable. A closer track would also result in gustier winds for the coastal plain. Outliers like the GFS (Global Forecast System) bring gusts of 35-40 mph into the coastal plain, while more reasonable solutions showing 25-30mph with locally higher gusts right along the coast. Over the waters models are in fairly good agreement of gusts 45+ mph. This is probably the more significant parameter to keep an eye on. Lastly, astronomical high tides are around 10ft overnight Sunday and Monday which normally isn't too concerning, but if there is going to be some degree of a surge factor in that timeframe it might be worth keeping an eye on. In summary the confidence in a low impact event remains moderate to high, but the exact details still need some ironing out and hopefully some agreement in subsequent model runs will help with that. Following the coastal system we end up with mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures into midweek. For those not satisfied with a glancing coastal blow, there is something to watch toward the end of the forecast period as ensembles suggest a clipper may bring more widespread precipitation to the area in the second half of next week. Marine Low pressure south of Cape Cod tracks east Friday night with easterly winds increasing through Friday evening. Winds turn northeasterly Friday night with gusts around 30 kts and seas building to 5-6 feet. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for all waters for Friday night through Saturday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Saturday afternoon. At least Small Craft Advisories will be needed next week as strong low pressure passing east of the Gulf of Maine will build seas and increase winds Sunday night. Seas have the potential to build up to 10-13 ft depending in the track of the low, with Gale force winds looking more likely as well. Elevated winds would taper off Tuesday, but return Wednesday evening as another disturbance crosses the waters. Similarly the waves fall more gradually but fall below 5ft Wednesday morning, before building again Wednesday night. NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm Friday to 7am EST Saturday for MEZ012-013-019>021-024>026-033. Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 7am EST Saturday for MEZ018. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 7am EST Saturday for MEZ023. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm Friday to 7am EST Saturday for NHZ002>004. Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to 7am EST Saturday for NHZ005>011-015. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Friday to 7am EST Saturday for NHZ012>014. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm Friday to 1pm EST Saturday for ANZ150>154. |
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