Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Sprinkles This Evening.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
544pm EDT Sat May 8 2021
Low pressure will continue to move east over the Atlantic Tonight and Sunday as high pressure builds just south of the region resulting in fairly pleasant weather conditions for Mothers Day. Low pressure will pass to our south late tomorrow night and Monday with widespread light rain expected especially over southern and coastal areas. An upper level low pressure system will pass over the region Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure building in its wake late Wednesday and Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
540 PM...Did some minor adjustment to POPS thru this evening, as weak cold front slides S thru the area. Meso models showing a little better convergence along the front across the southern NH and into far SW ME, so I've extended chance POPS briefly into SW ME through about 02Z. In most cases these will be sprinkles, but a few could be light showers that may measure a hundredth of an inch or two. Otherwise, look for clouds to linger through the evening with some clearing outside of the mtns later tonight.
Low pressure east of the Gulf of Maine will continue to deepen and move east north east. Wrap around cloud shield extends back into eastern New York state encompassing our entire region. Further to our west a band of showers stretching through NY state. For the remainder of this afternoon, these showers will remain west of our area with just a very low Probability of Precipitation extending into the CT river valley. For tonight, both the upstream IR imagery showing a very weak wave in southern Quebec as well as hi-res guidance suggests a few sprinkles may make it through into NH so have maintained the low Probability of Precipitation through the evening.
Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Sunday Night
Solid cloud cover will keep temperatures warmer tonight, with only the mountains dropping below freezing and the coastal plain remaining near 40. Fairly low spread on the temps for the overnight and as a result have kept with the clear consensus.
Sunday will be warmer as the low exits the region and we briefly see some high pressure build in with warm air advection developing ahead of the next system. Trend has been for the precipitation associated with the Monday coastal low to remain a bit further south, and so have tamped down on the Probability of Precipitation potential for Sunday night into Monday morning.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
A cool and damp start to the week with signs of a warm up by late week. Monday morning a quick moving weak wave of low pressure will move from Southern New England to the east northeast reaching a position south of Nova Scotia by midday and then moving east of to just south of Sable Island during the afternoon. This results in a period of steady rain early in the day to tapper off to left over showers midday. Best chance of morning rain will be over southern and coastal areas and the best chances of afternoon showers will be over mountain and northern areas. A slightly unsettled pattern is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level low moves east from the Great Lakes across Northern New England. At the surface a general troughy pattern is reflected underneath the upper level low. This will result in scattered showers especially over mountain and northern areas.
The upper level low will push east of the region Wednesday Night followed by an area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley that will drift east Thursday into Friday. This will result in drier and warmer conditions. On Friday afternoon a week short wave may set off a few showers mainly over northern and mountain areas.
While models are in good agreement regarding the above, they do differ on next Saturday. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has a weak upper level and surface low pressure arriving by late day from the eastern Great Lakes resulting in an increase in clouds and the threat of rain over NH by late, the GFS has a cutoff low with a stronger coastal system at that time that moves east northeast into the Atlantic. Both scenarios result in the chance of some rain but with differing solutions. This far out, for now chance probability of precipitation for showers seem warranted and there will be plenty of time to refine this in the coming days.
Long Term... Wind and waves to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for most of the period. A low to moderate chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas and wind gusts on Tuesday and Tuesday Night.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.