Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Light Freezing Spray Late.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Evening.|
|Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sat...N Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Snow And Rain Showers In The Afternoon With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1155pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
High pressure moves into New England tonight while strong low pressure moves slowly south of the Maritimes which will allow for breezy conditions tonight, especially on the coast. High pressure maintains quiet weather into Tuesday before another front crosses Tuesday night. The second half of the week into the weekend looks unsettled as an upper trough approaches from the west with a couple of low pressure systems taking aim at New England.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
11:55PM Quick update based on temp trends so far this evening. Temps have been slow to fall with the wind staying up, but they're expected to fall fast to near the dew points once the wind eases overnight, so forecast lows look to remain on track at this time.
7:05PM Wind gusts continue to increase and are likely to peak over the next few hours as a powerful low pressure center passes well offshore from the area. Refreshed temps and winds through the overnight based on trends and the latest guidance, but overall no major changes to the forecast. A shallow layer of colder air continues to approach the area from the north, so temperatures are expected to fall quickly through the evening hours.
Previous... High pressure continues to gradually build in from the north this late Monday afternoon. At the same time, an area of low pressure is explosively developing about 300 miles southeast of Nantucket. The gradient between these two weather systems will provide for a breezy evening, especially on the coast. Otherwise, it will be cold with wind chill readings dipping down to around zero late tonight on the coast to the minus single numbers well inland. Dry weather is expected.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
A colder day is in store for Tuesday with high pressure overhead. A short wave trough and attendant burst of ascent will allow for increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon some some light snow or snow showers breaking out rapidly from west to east around 00z tomorrow evening. Went with high likely to lower categorical Probability of Precipitation during the evening as an initial burst of light snow leaves an inch or less. Thereafter, drier air works in and out aloft just allowing for some showery precipitation and perhaps some light freezing drizzle.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Overview: Multiple light to moderate mixed, wintry precipitation events on the horizon in the extended forecast. This comes during a period the CPC outlines likely probabilities towards higher than normal temperatures.
Details: Mountains snow showers diminish Wednesday morning as NW flow brings breezy conditions in the afternoon. The incoming very dry air mass should be enough to keep any morning snow showers upwind of the mountains, but these winds will be robust along the higher elevations. Wind chills here will likely remain in the single digits to teens above zero except MWN which dips into negative values.
Across the interior and coastal plain, skies should turn mostly sunny. There will be some cirrus invading late. If you find a spot outside of the gusty winds, it will feel almost spring like with highs around 40 for many locations outside of the mountains.
If high clouds hold off Wednesday night, after midnight may bring good conditions for radiational cooling. Will need to let winds lighten before. Did blend in some MOS guidance to account for possibility of lows into the teens and lower 20s after an otherwise warm day. Aforementioned clouds begin to thicken and lower Thursday morning as the next system approaches.
Precipitation will begin to overspread the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix for southern NH and coastal ME. Interior areas will be the transition area where wintry mix will be most likely. Warm layer aloft should be present from onset, but is reinforced as occlusion pushes north. Increasing freezing rain probs are noted across western NH, with some sleet profiles evident where CAD could help maintain more potent shallow cold air. The main region of precipitation lifts through Thursday night, with tapering trend after sunrise Friday.
There has been some semblance of a secondary coastal low developing as the initial occlusion pushes north. A few ensemble members fully develop a low center near the Bay of Fundy, so full locking of cold air may occur too late. This will also have some effect on the next system into the weekend. Low pressure will form along residual front off the Mid-Atlantic, with baroclinic leaf structure stretching along the East Coast. Precip should break out along this boundary, but it will also be maneuvered based on how strong the low is to the north as well as incoming front from the Great Lakes. Some dry air from Canadian air mass may also temper how much moisture remains in New England vs. what is advected north downstream of the, by this time, very amplified trough.
Temperature wise, still trending towards CPC plots with probabilities favoring warmer than normal temperatures through the period. This plus multiple light to mod precipitation events means a turbulent forecast cycle.
Gale Warning for the outer waters and Penobscot Bay and have issued a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Casco Bay for tonight. Seas will take some time to come down due to large offshore storm, but winds will diminish markedly Tuesday.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) may be needed Wed/Wednesday night as offshore winds gust to around 30 kt. Winds slacken Thursday, but become SE as a front lifts from the south. There is a chance of low pressure development along the Mid-Coast of ME Thursday evening, but gale conditions are currently not expected.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Gale Warning until 5am EST Tuesday for ANZ150>152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Tuesday for ANZ153.