Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Evening, Then Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Patchy Fog. A Chance Of Showers This Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight, Then A Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers. Patchy Fog.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers. Patchy Fog.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Rain Likely.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
306pm EST Wednesday Nov 25 2020
Low pressure will pass to our south late tonight through Thursday before sliding offshore on Friday. Colder air trapped near the surface will produce a light wintry mix across much of interior Maine and in a few locations in New Hampshire through early Thursday. The precipitation is expected to change to all rain by Thursday afternoon as temperatures gradually warm above freezing. Drier and milder weather arrives for Friday. A cold front crosses the area Saturday followed by high pressure on Sunday. A more significant disturbance will bring rain and gusty winds to the region early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
A classic cold air damming scenario is set up across Maine currently. High pressure has moved off to the east over Nova Scotia and cold air remains locked in against the Maine foothills as a strong coastal front is in place. While warmer above freezing air has moved into southern NH, and coastward of Rt 1, as well as up through Waldo county, the I-95 corridor remains mostly below freezing. Virtually all numerical guidance has struggled with the temperatures today; They underestimated how long the cold air could linger as is typical in these scenarios. As a result the forecast temps for tonight and tomorrow have a very aggressive push downwards, holding the cold air in place overnight and well into the morning tomorrow.
To our west low pressure over Central IL will move east overnight pushing a warm front into our region and up and over our existing cold dome. This precipitation will spread into southern NH this evening and into Maine after midnight. Not much change from prior forecast in terms of timing and amount of precipitation however the colder temperature will mean more of this will fall as freezing rain. With light icing expected to be widespread overnight through the Maine foothills have issued a Winter Weather Advisory to address this. Further west across NH warm air has already been able to infiltrate up the CT river valley and through much of the southern part of the state. While some pockets may remain below freezing and see some light icing do not feel the threat is widespread enough to warrant and advisory for NH.
Short Term - Thursday and Thursday Night
Through the day tomorrow expect temperatures to slowly rise as the high pressure holding our cold air in place moves to the east. With the trends today running colder have also kept temperatures lower for the morning tomorrow, and thus the advisory for freezing rain remains through the morning hours. Widespread warmth won't arrive until very late in the day by which point the heaviest precipitation will have moved east of the region. Through the northern mountains this will result in hold a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain throughout the day tomorrow.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
The ensemble model solutions and latest deterministic ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through late next week. We begin the period with an active and progressive split stream pattern. By Early Next Week
phasing between northern and southern stream energy buckles the pattern with a deep trough across much of the CONUS and an upper ridge centered along the west coast. In the dailies...a southern stream impulse and associated surface low will be exiting to our east on Friday. A northern stream impulse will drive a cold front south across the area by early Saturday accompanied by scattered snow and rain showers. A quiet and seasonable end to the weekend as an area of high pressure builds by to our south. By Monday...phasing of streams gives rise to a significant disturbance over the southeast CONUS. Strengthening onshore flow and the approaching disturbance should spread clouds and eventually precipitation into the forecast area by Monday night. This will be a warm track with the surface low passing to our west. The trailing frontal system will pivot slowly northeast across the area on Tuesday. This front will be accompanied by a band of very heavy rainfall and a gusty southeast flow. In its wake...cool cyclonic flow on Wednesday should produce plenty of clouds along with scattered rain and snow showers.
Short Term /Through Thursday Night/... Southerly flow will continue as a warm front lifts north of the waters overnight. By morning the approaching low will see winds decrease and shift more westerly. Have left the existing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) in place but it may need to be extended through tomorrow morning for the outer waters. Rain showers will move across the waters Thanksgiving day as low pressure passes across the CWA.
Long Term... Sat - Sunday AM...SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) psb outside the bays.
Mon...SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) psb all waters.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 11pm this evening to noon EST Thursday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>021-033. NH...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for ANZ150>154.