Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
959am EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
High pressure will allow for quiet weather today and Friday before our next storm system begins to approach from the south this weekend. This system will have the potential to bring another round of heavy rain and strong winds, especially along the coast.
Near Term - Through Tonight
10 AMMinor changes to sky cover and to convert the remaining Gale Warning to a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) over the northeast outer waters. As stratocu deck become patchy later this morning and early afternoon, expect breezy winds to continue with good mixing into northerly flow.
645am Quick update was made to the going forecast focusing mostly on temperatures and winds for the next couple of hours. Generally temperatures have cooled rather well where clearing took place overnight but where the clouds remained temperatures are still mostly into the 40s. Otherwise the ongoing forecast is in good shape.
Previously... Satellite imagery early this morning continues to show a region of stratocumulus clouds nearly stationary over mostly eastern portions of the CWA while some high-level cirrus is streaming in from VT across portions of western NH. Today will be a pleasant day as high pressure gradually builds into the region from the south. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny by this afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the north to the middle 50s in southern NH and southwestern ME. Steep low to mid- level lapse rates will allow for another breezy day but winds will not be nearly as strong as they were yesterday.
Short Term - Friday
Tonight skies will remain mostly clear and this combined with decreasing winds should allow for nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. As a result, went below NBM for this portion of the forecast, which brings most locations away from the immediate coast within a few degrees either side of the freezing mark. Across the far north a hard freeze is expected with some locations likely falling into the mid 20s.
Heigheights will begin to fall on Friday as an area of high pressure dips south out of Quebec and an area of low pressure approaches from the south. It will still be another pleasant day with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures generally into the lower to middle 50s. Skies will begin to become cloudy though towards the evening hours ahead of our next storm system.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
As high pressure pulls away through the Canadian Maritimes, our attention begins to turn toward the next system that approaches from the southwest. This one comes in the form of a frontal system pushing out ahead of a cut off low. There will be a fairly good moist inflow into the system which will bring the potential for a period of heavy rain as the front arrives in New England on Saturday. The exiting high in the Maritimes is actually pretty well positioned for maintaining the low level cool air mass while the warm, moist sector gets lifted above the developing inversion Saturday morning. This isn't typically the time of year that we see strong cold air damming events and the air mass ahead of the system is not particularly cold in part because of this. However, with some radiational cooling across central and eastern Maine Friday night and incoming cloud cover Saturday morning this could enhance the low level inversion and perpetuate at least some damming across our area as the warm frontal push arrives. The result of this will be an enhancement of rainfall amounts along and just inland of the coastal front which separates the cold dam from the low level warm sector air. With a pretty strong low level jet, winds will increase on the coastal side of the front, but should be relatively tame beneath the inversion.
While the moist inflow is pretty strong, this fire hose doesn't stay pointed at us for very long as the front maintains its push north and eastward through Saturday night. But there will likely be a period of about 12 hours of moderate to heavy rainfall with widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Amounts up to 3 inches are possible especially along and just inland of the expected coastal front across the coastal plain of Maine and southeast New Hampshire. At this time we expect that this amount of rain will not lead to a significant flooding threat, but it will be something to pay attention to. The wind threat will be greatest along the coast but are currently expected to stay below advisory levels. For this forecast we relied on the National Blend for most forecast elements, including departing from the typical diurnal temperature trend due to the strong advection expected as the front arrives Saturday night. Some adjustments were made to keep inland areas in the cold dam a bit colder on Saturday and coastal areas a bit warmer Saturday night as the frontal push moves through. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast was also enhanced along the coastal front where the highest rainfall amounts are forecast.
The front should clear the area by Sunday morning, but the upper low will linger over the Northeast through the day Sunday, keeping some showers around. Temperatures will be relatively mild as the inversion breaks and we access some of the warm air aloft. Highs reach the 60s for most areas.
For next week, the primary driver of the weather will be an upper trough over central Canada and the north central US. It takes its time moving eastward as the first push of colder air largely misses our area to the north on Monday. A better push of colder air may arrive on Wednesday as a second piece of energy rotates through the trough. So expect temperatures to remain near to a bit above normal through midweek with precipitation chances increasing in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame as that next wave pushes through.
Update... Decided to downgrade the Gale Warning to an SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for all zones except for east of Penobscot Bay where winds may continue to gust up to 35 kts for a few more hours.
Gale Warning remains in effect until early this afternoon across eastern waters and this morning for western waters for winds up to 35 kts and seas of 7-14 feet, except 3-6 feet across the bays. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then expected through tonight as high pressure builds into the Canadian Maritimes.
As high pressure pulls away to the east, the next frontal system approaches from the southwest. Expect an increase in easterly winds ahead of this front through Saturday evening with gale force winds becoming likely. Winds decrease and shift to the south after the front moves through, but lingering waves will likely keep Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing into Sunday.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>154.