Stonington ME to Port Clyde ME Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Light Freezing Spray.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Light Freezing Spray In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then 2 To 4 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Rain, Mainly In The Evening. Areas Of Dense Fog. Vsby Variable To Less Than One Quarter Nm.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Gray ME
1246am EST Fri Feb 26 2021
High pressure builds into our region from the west tonight and Friday. Another fast-moving weather system will move across the forecast area on Saturday bringing mixed precipitation. Yet another weak system will cross the region Sunday night before high pressure then builds into the region early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
1246am Made a few minor adjustments to hourly temperature, wind and dew point trends based on latest observations. Overall forecast thinking remains the same.
9PM Updated the forecast to include a Wind Chill Advisory for Central Somerset County in coordination with WFO Caribou. This is the portion of our forecast area which is most likely to see the combination of cold temperatures and continued sustained winds to produce dangerously cold wind chill values through Friday morning. Further to the west the winds have already dropped off in some locations as high pressure builds in. Tonight will basically be a battle between the winds falling off and temperatures plummeting due to radiational cooling vs winds keeping things well mixed and thus "warmer" in at least a relative sense. Valley locations especially in the west will be more likely to go calm and plummet while much of the area will maintain at least some wind.
7PM Made some adjustments based on latest observations as temperatures have begun to fall this evening. Winds remain brisk but they will also diminish as time goes on.
ORIGINAL High pressure will gradually move eastward into New England tonight resulting in diminishing winds this evening. Mountain snow showers have been diminishing in intensity and coverage over the past hour or so and will come to an end by early evening. The upslope clouds will also thin out as increasing subsidence occurs. As for min temperatures tonight, took a blend of the various MOS products resulting in lows around zero across northern NH to around 20 in the more urban areas on the coast and across southern NH.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Saturday
High pressure centered overhead on Friday will provide for a sunny day with light winds. Highs should get into the 30s most everywhere, and perhaps the upper 30s in the Merrimack Valley in southern NH.
High pressure moves off the coast Friday evening allowing a warm air advection pattern to develop. This will aid in increasing cloud cover by later Friday night with perhaps even some light snow developing by dawn across southwestern NH as the WAA continues to strengthen in advance of a short wave trough.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
A progressive pattern with a series of quick hitting light precipitation events dominates the long term.
The weekend begins with a quick burst of precipitation as weak low pressure passes to our north. We'll see warm advection set up across the region with isentropic upslope generating some light showers. While precipitation will start off as snow, expect the southern portion of the area to switch over to rain mid morning. With the sun angle increasing and no high pressure to our NE to hold the cold air the late Feb sun angle and warm advection will quickly allow temps to rise above freezing. In general the warm air aloft will come in at about the same pace as the surface, but there is some hint, especially from the NAM, of the warm air pushing in early in southern New Hampshire. Have added just a slight chance for freezing rain in the early morning in this area. I have kept total liquid amounts under 0.5" in line with the RFC and WPC guidance. If anything the biggest concern for this system would be for a faster progression with the precipitation ending earlier. With temperatures marginal at best for much of the area have kept snow ratios slightly below climatology, closer to 9:1. The result is that snow amounts are quite modest with just around 0.5" south and 1-2 inches in the north. As the low passes to our north expect a brief period with strong low level jet. Have significantly increased wind speeds for the higher summits for Saturday with KMWN potentially seeing over 100mph again.
Saturday night the precipitation comes to an end leaving a moist atmosphere over a widespread snowpack and temperatures hovering near freezing. This is a classic set up for Dense fog, especially in the coastal plain where daytime temps above freezing will have resulted in rain showers. With SREF also supporting visibilities below a mile have included Areas of dense fog in the forecast for Saturday night.
Sunday morning will see the sun making quick work of the fog as the progressive pattern continues through the weekend and high pressure quickly moves in behind the departing low. Meanwhile another strong shortwave will develop over the Canadian prairies and drop south through the great Lakes crossing our region early Monday. This northern stream wave looks to arrive slightly ahead of its southern stream counterpart, which will eject from the four corners region and move through late Monday to our south. Without these two features working together we won't see a large storm but rather some showers on Sunday night into Monday.
Moving into next week expect the progressive pattern to continue as, at least on the continental scale, cold air retreats away from the area.
Strong, gusty winds diminish this evening and tonight as high pressure approaches from the west. Seas will continue to subside as well. Some light freezing spray is possible late tonight and early Friday morning, but that leads into a fairly quiet day on Friday as high pressure approaches from the southwest.
Long Term...A series of quick systems will move through the region. Saturday will see showers as a warm front lifts north across the waters. Ahead of the front southerly flow will bring wind gusts to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Saturday. After that will see a break as high pressure crosses for Sunday. Another period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is likely on Monday afternoon.
NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 9am EST this morning for MEZ009. NH...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for ANZ150>152. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ154.