Sabine Lake Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning. Showers Likely Through The Day. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Friday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming South In The Afternoon. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning. Chance Of Showers Through The Day.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
350 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Light to moderate onshore flow will continue into the coming week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the coastal waters by Monday and continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
345pm CDT Sunday May 24 2020
Mid-afternoon surface analysis shows the area remaining under the influence of high pressure centered over the warning Atlantic with southerly low-level winds continuing to moisten our airmass as latest obs show dewpoints lingering in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Water vapor imagery/12z upper air analysis shows one mid/upper-level low over the cntl Gulf, while trough.ing is noted from the northern Plains through the spine of the Rockies to the southern Plains/Gulf. With limited capping and excellent moisture in place, daytime heating has led to a good bit of convective development, primarily across the warning 1/2 of the forecast area...with the bulk of the current activity noted over the nwarning zones where outflows from earlier convection have been helping fire new storms. Otherwise, a mostly cloud/warm/muggy day is ongoing across the region.
In the short-term, expect convection to continue firing across the forecast area for the remainder of the afternoon before diminishing towards sunset with loss of heating. However given so much moisture already in place and the approach of another disturbance aloft, deterministic and high res guidance all points to another round of convection moving in from the west late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Main hazard at this time appears to be brief heavy downpours, locally gusty winds and possibly some small hail.
The stage is being set for our expected wet period across the forecast area. With a mainly low-level flow expected to continue to pump plentiful Gulf moisture across the region, forecast soundings indicate projected PWATs (Precipitable Waters) continuing to well exceed the typical late May normal of 1.50 inches while mean RH's generally run in the 60-75 percent range. Add to it daytime heating and occasional disturbances rounding the trough and rain chances look to remain on the high side for the next several days. Peak rain chances appear to come on Tuesday/Wednesday as a cutoff low aloft is forecast to develop/sit over the Red River Valley which will fully open the Gulf in the mid/upper-levels while eliminating any capping. As of now, WPC has kept the area in just a marginal risk for excessive rainfall...will continue to monitor flash flooding potential over the coming days to see whether a watch will be needed. If there's a bright side to this, we'll see temps accordingly lower with daytime highs forecast to peak in the lower 80s through mid-week.
Was hoping to begin seeing a respite from the rain by late in the week, but POPs remain high as the low opens up and a trough lingers over the warning Gulf region.
Introduced caution headlines for the outer waters for tonight as winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 knots. Otherwise no headlines are anticipated through the period at this time. Expect an uptick in late night convection over the waters as well.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution from 7pm CDT this evening through late tonight for GMZ470-472-475.