Marine Weather Net

Sabine Lake Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ430 Forecast Issued: 936 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Rest Of Today...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth.
Tonight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.
Monday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.
Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.
Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers.
Wednesday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Rain Showers.
Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy.
Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.
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Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400
936 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

A weak to moderate easterly flow is forecast for through early this week. A cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters mid week, bringing an increasing offshore flow Wednesday and Thursday. Those with marine interests are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts for Tropical Storm Zeta, which is forecast to move across the Central Gulf toward the northern Gulf Coast next week. Pending the eventual track and intensity, winds and seas could be higher than currently forecast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
933am CDT Sunday Oct 25 2020

Main forecast issues in the near term will be clearing and high temperatures this afternoon. Short term models overall agree that clouds will remain through the day across most of the area and that clearing may occur in the the lower Acadiana area. Will not update temperatures at this moment as current temperatures look good and are below guidance. Otherwise no changes are planned.

UPDATE... Corrective update to note of interest in morning public discussion. An unnamed sub-tropical storm was added in post- season analysis to the 2005 season, which did not use a name at the time of its existence but otherwise should have. Therefore, the 27th named storm that year was actually Epsilon, which was named on November 29. So with Zeta being the 27th named storm this year, we are about one month sooner, not two, and would need one more named storm to match 2005 in terms of named storms. Confused? Here's a table to help out:

2005 Realtime 2005 Post-analysis 2020 Realtime

18 Stan Stan Sally 19 Tammy Unnamed STS Teddy 20 Vince Tammy Vicky 21 Wilma Vince Wilfred 22 Alpha Wilma Alpha 23 Beta Alpha Beta 24 Gamma Beta Gamma 25 Delta Gamma Delta 26 Epsilon Delta Epsilon 27 Zeta Epsilon Zeta 28 Zeta

AVIATION...LIFR conditions will continue for a few hours before gradually improving, however MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings will remain in place for most of today. Ceilings will lower again tonight. Winds will be north to northeast for most of the period, however winds may become more east to southeast at KLCH and KBPT in the late afternoon.

Another cloudy start across the forecast area this morning, with IR satellite imagery and SFC Obs showing the area shrouded in low level stratus. Cloud cover was quite persistent yesterday, and that is expected to be the case again today amid continued low level CAA. Tilted forecast high temps toward the cooler end of the spectrum of guidance. Some erosion of the cloud cover is likely to begin tonight as the low level flow begins to veer and neutral to warm air advection takes over, though WRN zones will likely see it replaced by warm advection stratus during the evening/overnight. Amid these shifting regimes, lows tonight are expected to be warmer, especially along the coast and into SE TX.

Warming trend is expected to continue MON and MON night, with otherwise benign weather expected. Deepening and increasing S to SW flow is forecast to begin impinging on the area downstream of an approaching upper low, with an increase in cloud cover and slight uptick in rain chances expected. Forecast confidence begins to decrease as early as TUE night, with increasing spread in model guidance regarding the timing of the upper low and especially the eventual track/intensity of recently upgraded TS Zeta. On the current forecast track, much of the impacts from Zeta would be felt to our east across Southeast Louisiana, though at least some tropical MSTR would be fed into the area ahead of the upper low and its associated leading CDFNT. With that in mind, have carried healthy Probability of Precipitation on WED with the front forecast to push through the area, tapering them off WED night into THU from W to E. It should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty in the track/intensity of Zeta at this time given the complex interplay of the cyclone, a sub-tropical ridge over the ERN Gulf, and the upper low. Everyone along the northern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the latest forecasts over the coming days.

As a quick note of interest, with the naming of Zeta, we have now tied the hyperactive 2005 hurricane season in terms of the number of named storms, and we've done it around 2 months sooner with Zeta named in late December of that year and actually lasting into Jan of 2006.

The forecast for the THU night through SAT time period looks dry, cool, and quiet in the wake of the cold front.

13

Marine Discussion
A weak to moderate easterly flow is forecast for through early this week. A cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters mid week, bringing an increasing offshore flow Wednesday and Thursday. Those with marine interests are urged to keep up with the latest forecasts for Tropical Storm Zeta, which is forecast to move across the Central Gulf toward the northern Gulf Coast next week. Pending the eventual track and intensity, winds and seas could be higher than currently forecast.

13.


NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.