Sabine Lake Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Lake Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Saturday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
| Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
933 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021
A mainly light offshore flow behind a weak cool front over the northern Gulf waters will linger through Thursday. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially through this morning. Onshore flow is expected to return by Friday as high pressure re-develops.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1236pm CDT Wednesday August 4 2021
UPDATE... Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the frontal boundary which is now situated about 30 miles offshore. Low level clouds continue to linger along the immediate coastline with mostly clear skies further inland. Dewpoints have dropped into the upper 60s this morning across parts of central Louisiana making for a bit more comfortable start to the day. Dewpoints closer to the coast remain in the mid 70s although these could drop somewhat through the afternoon as better mixing gets underway. Current forecast looks good and only minor tweaks were made to Probability of Precipitation to align with the latest radar trends.
For 12z TAF issuance.
AVIATION... Overnight, LIFR ceilings developed at the Acadiana terminals as well as KLCH...expect these trends to last another hour or so before onset of daytime heating causes ceilings to rise/dissipate. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail. Expecting a few showers/storms to develop across the southern 1/2 of the forecast area...coverage looks minimal to leave out of the TAFs for now and let 18z better refine rain threat. Forecast soundings show boundary layer drying through the day, thus VFR conditions should persist through tonight.
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)... Latest surface analysis shows our frontal boundary extending from sern LA through the adjacent northern Gulf waters to the Galveston Bay region... with a light nrly low-level flow behind it (Cold Air Advection in early August?) helping temps/dewpoints drop to the lower 70s across the northern 1/2 of the forecast area at 08z. Water vapor imagery shows fairly deep early August trough.ing in place from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast, while weak ridging is noted to our west over warning TX. Local 88Ds show an expanding area of convection over our outer waters in vicinity of the boundary pushing sewd...while activity is no longer noted over swarning LA or sern TX.
For a good portion of the forecast area, today will be a dry, mostly sunny and slightly cooler than normal day as dry air filtering in behind the weak front dominates the weather. Farther south, forecast soundings indicate potentially enough low-level moisture to interact with a weak disturbance rounding the trough to produce a few showers/storms during max heating this afternoon. The drier air moving into the northern zones will allow dewpoints to fall into the 60s, which will in turn hold apparent temps to the lower 90s, a far cry from a few days back when heat advisories/warnings were required for the area. Even the srn zones, where dewpoints/heat index values will be slightly higher, apparent temps will only top out in the upper 90s.
Diurnal convection comes to an end with sunset/loss of heating and the encroaching drier air looks to set up a magnificent, out of the ordinary early August night with min temps forecast to fall to the upper 60s across most of the area along/north of I-10...with mid 60s looking likely across the far nern zones. Blended guidance is even a little warmer than some of the more traditional MOS where AEX was forecast to drop down to 65F prior to sunrise Thursday.
Thursday looks somewhat similar to today with the weak boundary meandering over the adjacent coastal waters/coastal land zones before pushing into sern TX during the afternoon hours. Convection again looks limited to just the far southern zones/sern TX where moisture is best. Highs will once again be just below early August norms with apparent temps held to the lower/mid 90s by the lower dewpoints. Whatever showers/storms that develop during the afternoon will come to an end with sunset, leaving behind a dry Thursday night. Temps are forecast to be a few degrees warmer as the dewpoints creep back up, although still below climo.
Friday currently looks like a return to our recent wetter than normal pattern. Another significant shortwave crossing the cntl CONUS will lower heigheights aloft, while the surface front washes out and a deepening southerly flow develops, ushering in sufficient moisture to allow for a bit more convective coverage during the afternoon. Convection should be on the wane with sunset/loss of heating, although we should see a bit more additional nocturnal coverage over the nwarning Gulf which is forecast to begin pushing inland prior to sunrise Saturday. Overnight temps will respond with mins around climo for Saturday morning.
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
There is little to no change weather wise on a day to day basis for the extended period. The models at the beginning of the extended forecast are in agreement with an upper level ridge over the Atlantic crossing over FL and making its way west into the gulf. A pattern of afternoon scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will repeat each day with Probability of Precipitation in the 40-60 range. The GFS and Canadian are keeping us on the drier side in comparison to the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) that has elevated precipitation. Ran with the NBM which has a good balance of the models. Temperatures will inch back towards climatological norms with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon heat indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. While this will not meet the criteria necessary for the issuance of a Heat Advisory, it's wise to be careful while working outdoors.
Offshore flow will linger into Thursday before the weak front washes out and a southerly flow develops in its wake with high pressure returning to place over the northern Gulf...no headlines are anticipated on the coastal waters through the period at this time.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.