South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Light Rain Until Early Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Light Rain Late. |
| Sun...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Light Rain In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 336pm EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Synopsis As a frontal wave passes to the east this evening, high pressure will build in from the northeast. The high will continue to influence the area into early next week as it works slowly out into the North Atlantic. A warm front begins to approach on Tuesday and passes through on Wednesday. A cold front then follows for Thursday night. High pressure then takes control for Friday and Saturday with only a weak cold front passing through Friday night. Near Term - Through Sunday The steadiest light rain across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island will gradually shift south and east into this evening as low pressure to the southeast works farther offshore. However, with abundant low-level moisture and a potential for weak lift, plan to maintain a low chance of light rain and/or drizzle. High pressure centered near Nova Scotia will build into the area tonight behind the departing low. This will bring in some drier through the night. This should keep Father's Day dry, but with plenty of cloudy clover. Model time height cross sections show mid level dry air with deep moisture below 700 mb. There could be enough drying for some peaks of sun in the afternoon across eastern CT and eastern LI. Lows tonight will in the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, but around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to around 70. Stayed with the warmer NBM as locations on Saturday overachieved for those locations where the rain stopped. Airmass should be very similar, minus the rain. Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Weak high pressure will remain in control even as the center of the high gradually works east out into the North Atlantic. There will remain plenty of low-level moisture with mostly cloudy conditions lingering for all but eastern LI and SE CT, where there could be breaks in the cloud cover. A weak easterly flow will continue as well with high pressure across the area and a stalled frontal boundary to the south over the Mid Atlantic states. Lows Sunday night will change little in the mid to upper 50s, except around 60 for the NYC metro. Highs Monday will begin there gradual uptick heading into the upcoming week, around 70 for most locations. Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday Weak riding aloft Monday night into Tuesday as the h5 flow gets amplified by a shortwave shifting in to the Ohio Valley. Most of the time is expected to be dry as the mean ridging aloft should help offset any subtle PVA, but left in a slight chance of an afternoon shower across the western half of the forecast area as per NBM. The warm front then moves through during the day Wednesday with rain chances for both Tuesday night due to lift ahead of the front, and for Wednesday with frontal passage itself, followed by increasing instability later in the day. Global models still disagree regarding when of an amplifying h5 trough axis shifts through within the Thursday night-Friday time frame. GFS (Global Forecast System) has slowed down noticeably in this regard over the past 24 hours, with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian more consistently showing the axis shifting through during Friday morning. Not surprisingly, LREF ensemble clusters therefore lean toward the EPS/CMCE camp over GEFS. Associated cold front is therefore still slated for a Thursday night passage, but before then, a pre-frontal trough may act as a focus for convective initiation in an increasingly unstable air mass. As such, NBM has expanded likely Probability of Precipitation (60-70%) into most of the Lower Hudson Valley and adjacent spots for Thursday afternoon/early evening. Potential shear and CAPE would lead to the chance of at least strong thunderstorms. Too early in the game to have much confidence in the severe weather potential, but something to watch. Leaned more toward the 25th percentile NBM for highs on Thursday for most spots, which is still warmer than the deterministic numbers. h8 temps forecast at 18-19C without too much convective debris should allow for low-mid 90s in the typically warmest spots. This coupled with dewpoints around 70 could have some heat impacts. High pressure would then be the dominant feature for Friday and Saturday with only perhaps a weak cold front or trough moving through during Friday night. Cold pool aloft on Friday could help trigger an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures both days in the 80s and about 3-5 degrees above normal. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains up for the ocean waters tonight with NE flow at 15 to 20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas will build to around 5 ft. The flow relaxes some the second half of the night. It is possible that 5 ft seas linger a bit longer into Sunday morning. Confidence remains low. Otherwise, sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through Monday. Winds and seas remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels across all waters Monday night through at least Thursday morning. SW winds pick up in the afternoon ahead of a cold front, with gusts possibly up to 25 kt on the ocean - lasting into the evening. Ocean seas could reach 5 ft Thursday night into Friday. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week. Next chance for impacts would be Thursday into Thursday night with scattered thunderstorms. The airmass is moist, but the anticipated speed of the cells would mitigate potential rain amounts. With that said, there's still the potential of at least minor urban/poor drainage flooding. Tides / Coastal Flooding A moderate risk of rip current development remains for the rest of today into this evening. The moderate risk continues into Sunday with an E-SE wave component around 4 ft at 6s. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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