South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Occasional Rain And Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Light Rain And Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
359am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
Weak low pressure with a warm front remains just off to our south today. A stronger low to our northwest will drag a weak cold front across the region tonight. This low then weakens as its center heads towards us Monday, then becomes part of a trough that shifts through during Monday night into Tuesday. Another low will pass well south and east during the middle of the week, followed by high pressure to close out the week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
A weak wave of low pressure along a warm front will move slowly NE today as it likely remains just south of us. There's a chance that part of the warm front sneaks in briefly somewhere within the southern zones which could help bump up temperatures higher than forecast, but expecting highs to range mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.
The strongest thermal forcing will be over roughly the eastern half of the area, and this will slowly be shifting east through the day. The only other available lift is otherwise weak, and moisture will be trending more shallow this afternoon. Highest Probability of Precipitation will therefore be this morning and trending downward this afternoon. Still a chance of light rain or drizzle this afternoon however.
Low pressure to our NW will help push a weakening cold front/trough into the area tonight. Moisture will be generally shallow at this point with dry mid-levels. This along with stable lower levels will limit chances of thunder in spite of elevated instability. Will therefore keep the mention of thunder out of the forecast and go with low chances of light rain or drizzle for the most part, but a shower with brief moderate rainfall could shift into the NW zones.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday
Stacked low to our northwest weakens as it heads towards us on Monday. Limited instability will be present in the associated cold pool aloft. This could trigger some showers mainly in the afternoon, but will maintain a forecast with Probability of Precipitation capped at chance. High temperature forecast will be tricky for Monday with a wide spread among guidance. Models seem to agree on a mostly cloudy afternoon, so will hedge slightly towards the cooler guidance.
The low pressure center to our NW continues to slowly head our way Monday night into Tuesday. It weakens while doing do as it becomes part of trough, and the transfer of energy is shifted toward the offshore low to our east. Will still cap Probability of Precipitation at chance for now, but best overall chances will be with the moisture convergence along this surface trough that shifts south and west through the forecast area. It should no longer be a threat after Tuesday morning, but it probably remains on the cloudy side with an east to northeast low level flow. Highs on Tuesday therefore below normal.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Mainly dry conditions are forecast Tuesday night through the rest of the week. However, there will be chances for passing showers as a coastal low passes well south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly across western and southern sections.
As the storm intensifies and expands well east of the region Thursday night, the western edge of the precipitation field will move westward toward our area. Some vorticity maxima may move through aloft, as well as spokes of surface troughs rotating around the low which will aid in the possibility for showers, but right now, looks to only be a slight chance for extreme eastern areas.
Thereafter, dry conditions are forecast through the end of the week with high pressure building in.
Other than some above normal temperatures for Monday, seasonable temperatures are expected through the week.
Regarding winds, gusty E-NE flow will gradually decrease this afternoon from west to east as a low along a warm front approaches the region. The low moves northeast of the region tonight into early Monday with the pressure gradient remaining weak. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for today are the same as before, with NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound being the first waters forecast to get below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels for winds, which will be by the start of the afternoon. For the other non-ocean waters, there will be some lingering gusts to 25kt this afternoon. For the ocean, west of Fire Island Inlet ocean zone will have gusts around 25kt through the morning and drop below 25 kt this afternoon. For the rest of the local forecast ocean zones to the east, 25kt gusts will linger from this morning into the afternoon.
For all waters, expecting below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts for tonight. Wind gusts are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Monday through much of Monday night for all waters with the only exception being the ocean zones east of Fire Island Inlet late Monday night when some marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts are forecast. The ocean east of Fire Island Inlet is also forecast to have SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts Tuesday while the rest of the local waters will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for gusts.
Regarding the ocean seas, they will remain in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range through Monday afternoon, with the ocean west of Fire Island Inlet getting below 5 ft by 18Z Monday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) end times for the ocean were adjusted accordingly.
Additional rainfall amounts through tonight are expected to range from a tenth to a half inch with the higher amounts generally over eastern Long Island and SE CT. No hydrologic impacts are expected with this and impacts are not anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ330- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Monday for ANZ355.