Marine Weather Net

South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ345 Forecast Issued: 1144 AM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Afternoon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...E Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms.
Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon Night...S Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1211pm EDT Thu July 19 2018

Synopsis: High pressure passes across the area today and Friday. A slowly moving broad area of low pressure then pushes into the region over the weekend. High pressure then attempts to build back into the region from the east Monday into Tuesday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Deep layer ridging will build in this afternoon, with abundant sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity. Lowered max temps just a shade per GFS LAMP, which fits yesterday's GFS MOS high temp bias, with highs upper 70s to mid 80s.

Generally light winds veer SE-S this afternoon.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches today due to 2-3 ft S-SE swells

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Friday Night
Ridge builds aloft, with surface high pressure passing just east. Waves of low pressure riding along a cold front remain well to the SE, offshore.

Temps are expected to remain right around normal, with 50s and 60s at night, and lower to middle 80s during the daytime.

Patchy fog is possible late Friday night as humidity levels slowly increase, and light onshore winds persist.

There is a low to moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches Friday

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
A broad area of low pressure will spread across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend as a closed 500mb low drifts south through those locations. Over here, a surface low center shifts in from the south. Timing and track of this feature seems to be a passage somewhere over or very close to the tri-state area at some point Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chances of rain increase Saturday afternoon, becoming likely Saturday night. Heavy rain is possible as a low-level jet, potentially at 40-50 kt, shifts through and interacts with an airmass with PWATs 2.00-2.50 inches. This so far appears to be mainly a stratiform rain event, however elevated instability will be present with decent lift in/near the storm center. So the scattered thunderstorm potential could enhance rainfall totals and rates. Would like to see a better convective potential and be more certain of the storm center track before mentioning this system in the HWO, but there's at least minor flooding potential with this storm.

The low center shifts north of us during Sunday, however we'll still be within the broad area of low pressure centered to our southwest and a cyclonic flow aloft will persist. This will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances through the day.

The closed upper low weakens as it heads farther south into the Southeast. This will allow for some deep-layered ridging here on Monday and Tuesday. Both days will have chances of showers and storms at any given time, but much of time both days will be dry. Tuesday could even potentially be a completely dry day for most of the area. Ridging then begins to break down on Wednesday with a cold front well off to our west, but convection will still be possible. with the potential of shortwave lift and a moist airmass in place.

High temperatures Saturday through Wednesday will be mainly in the 80s, but Tuesday has the potential to be a few degrees warmer than currently forecast, which would push about half of the tri-state area into the 90s. A persistent southerly flow will maintain muggy conditions through the period.

Marine Discussion
With high pressure firmly in control today and Friday, winds and seas remain rather tranquil through this time frame, with a 2-3 ft SE swell on the ocean.

Low pressure will approach the waters from the south on Saturday, and pass through Saturday night into Sunday. This will increase winds and seas during this period. At least Small Craft Advisory conds will be likely on the ocean waters as seas build over 5 ft. There's a good chance of wind gusts over 25 kt over the ocean as well, and advisory-level gusts could potentially spread across the rest of the waters. There's even a chance of gales on some of the waters depending on the eventual track and strength of the storm. Winds and seas then subside Sunday night into Monday, but a lingering swell and perhaps some gusts to 25 kt will probably maintain Small Craft Advisory conds on the ocean

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts of mostly an inch to an inch and a half is currently forecast for late-day/early evening Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Primarily minor urban/poor drainage and small stream flooding is possible. The threat of thunderstorms however presents a chance of locally higher rain amounts and rain rates that could lead to flash flooding. Overall chances of flash flooding appears to be on the lower side and more likely to be isolated in nature. Timing for potential adverse impacts will be most likely during Saturday night.

Additional showers and storms could follow Sunday night through the mid-week period next week, but potential impacts are unknown, and to a degree will depend on how much rain falls with the weekend storm system

Equipment
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.

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