South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
902pm EST Thu Nov 21 2019
High pressure shifts offshore overnight ahead of a cold front that will cross the area on Friday. Brief high pressure then returns for Saturday. Low pressure impacts the region late Saturday night through Sunday. Weak high pressure then builds in for Monday through the middle of next week. A cold front will move through late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
The pine barrens of eastern Long Island cooled off considerably, with only high clouds moving in, and winds lightening. However, as clouds thicken, warm air advection commences and southerly winds increase, temps should hold steady across the region, or rise.
Do not foresee any rain reaching the ground as the evening soundings looks quite dry. At most, a passing sprinkle is possible as weak mid level shortwave, PVA passes.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
Warm advection will continue into the morning ahead of an approaching low pressure system, but the antecedent dry air mass will initially be slow to saturate. As such, any precipitation will likely be light at onset. Deep layer moisture then quickly increases into the afternoon, coincident with the arrival of the strong short wave aloft. At this time, there appears to be more phasing between the northern and southern stream jets, which should increase upward motion and chances for rain across the area, especially closer to the coast. Expect highs on the mild side, generally in the 50s.
Rain then quickly ends by evening as confluent flow aloft allows a surface high to build into the region. The tightened pressure gradient between the departing system and incoming high pressure will lead to strong and gusty winds across the area, which combined with strong cold advection will yield wind chill values in the 20s overnight. Low temperatures will be well below normal, in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
Weak high pressure will move over the region Saturday. Backing profiles during the day will mean cold air advection into the region, with much cooler highs as compared to Friday. Highs will be in the 40s region-wide.
High pressure then shifts offshore Saturday night, with ridging aloft as well as veering profiles. This will mean a nearly steady or slightly warming trend overnight.
A trough over the mid-West will allow a surface low over the Ohio valley to quickly intensify as it approaches the area Saturday night. The track of this low is still very uncertain, but should push offshore or move over the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, then track into the Gulf of Maine Sunday night. Right now, the NAM is an outlier, with a well offshore track. Also, depending on the track, a period of moderate precipitation is possible. Finally, depending on the track and how much cold air remains at the surface, frozen/freezing precipitation is possible for areas well inland, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley. Again, there exists large uncertainty at this time.
Weak surface ridging then builds in from high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Monday, then pushes offshore on Tuesday.
A frontal system approaches for the middle of the week, lifting a warm front north of the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The associated cold front quickly moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night as the associated low passes well north and east of the area, tracking over the eastern Great Lakes region then into southeastern Canada. Temperatures will be warm enough at this point for all rain everywhere.
Initially light winds and sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will both gradually increase through the night with the approach of a low pressure system, reaching advisory levels by the morning to early afternoon. As the cold front passes east of the waters on Friday, winds will increase significantly in its wake, allowing for the potential for gale force winds on the eastern waters, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels elsewhere. Therefore, Gale Warnings have been issued for the eastern sound, Peconic and Gardiner's Bays, and the central and eastern ocean waters. Winds then gradually decrease into Friday night as high pressure builds from the west, with seas slowly beginning to subside.
Winds will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria from Saturday through Sunday morning. Strengthening low pressure will impact the coastal waters on Sunday, with 25 to 30 kt gusts in the afternoon and overnight over the ocean waters. Winds should remain below 25 kt from Monday through Tuesday night.
Waves will continue to diminish Saturday falling below 5 ft by late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Waves then remain below 5 ft through Sunday morning as high pressure will be in control. Thereafter, waves increase to 5 to 7 ft on the ocean waters through Monday night, diminishing thereafter, as the storm pulls away. Waves of less than 5 ft are expected Monday afternoon, and remain below 5 ft through Tuesday night.
No hydrological concerns are expected through Saturday. Liquid equivalent amounts of 0.50"-075" are forecast from late Saturday into late Sunday as an area of low pressure impacts the region. There is some uncertainty with the amounts depending on the track and intensity of the low.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 5am Friday to 5am EST Saturday for ANZ335-338-345-355. Gale Warning from 5am Friday to midnight EST Friday night for ANZ330-340-350-353.