South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Slight Chance Of Sprinkles Or Flurries Early This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
| 103 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to move slowly north, sending a weak cold front or surface trough across the region during the afternoon and early evening hours today. Thereafter, a series of weak troughs along with a cold front will pivot across the area through the middle of the week. A frontal system passes through the area Thursday into early Friday. High pressure slowly builds through next weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
108pm EST Monday Jan 18 2021
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will lift slowly north today and send a surface trough across the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Thereafter, a series of weak troughs along with a cold front will pivot across the area through the middle of the week. A frontal system passes through the area Thursday into early Friday. High pressure slowly builds through next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
The forecast remains on track. A weak trough, both at the surface and aloft, will move through the area today. Lift is weak and there is not much moisture to work with but the development of flurries or sprinkles are possible, mainly in the afternoon thanks in part due to daytime heating and resultant additional BL mixing. Other than the slight chance of flurries/sprinkles, the day will be mainly dry with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low to middle 40s. Winds will remain fairly breezy out of the west with gusts up to 20 - 25 mph.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday Night
Upper level flow remains zonal with weak shortwaves moving through tonight and Tuesday. This will allow for the reinforcement of the breezy conditions (and cold air) generally out of the west, especially during the day on Tuesday with the additional daytime heating and mixing.
The shortwaves that move through will really only produce some cloud cover for short periods of time. Conditions will be generally mostly sunny to partly cloudy Monday night, but may become mostly cloudy or briefly overcast during the day on Tuesday before clearing out again early Tuesday night.
Overall, a fairly benign pattern with the main forecast challenges being cloud cover and timing of strongest wind gusts. Temperatures will be seasonal with daytime highs on Tuesday in the low 40s and low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night in the 20s with the NYC metro in the low 30s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
The northern stream will dominate through the extended period, and the general forecast remains consistent. Wednesday a shortwave moves across the area and the surface low over the Atlantic deepens further. A surface trough lingers back across New England and this may provide enough forcing for flurries as little moisture will be available. Again rather flat upper flow develops behind the trough Wednesday night into Thursday. As a result the next shortwave remains to the north and at this time is not as amplified as earlier forecasts. This will keep the surface low, and warm frontal boundary farther to the north. And once again with the progressive flow the low forming on the occluded front will be to the east of the region and deepen well to the east Thursday night into Friday. As a result did lower the probabilities for Thursday and Thursday night. Heigheights begin to rise Friday as a ridge builds over the central United States and moves toward the east coast through the weekend.
The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been expanded to include all but the harbor and wrn sound thru tngt. Winds have already reached criteria across most of these areas, and the modeling suggests speeds will remain up thru most of the ngt.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely on the ocean waters Tuesday into Wednesday night, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possible on the eastern Long Island Sound and the Long Island bays Wednesday and Wednesday night, as low pressure tracks across southern New England Tuesday and deepens over the western Atlantic Wednesday. A brief period of sub advisory is expected Thursday, however, ocean seas build back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Thursday night into Friday as another low develops and deepens east of the waters.
No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through this week.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.