South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers Likely.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
618am EDT Sat May 26 2018
Synopsis: A cold front approaches from the north and drops south of the area tonight and Sunday. The front becomes nearly stationary south of the waters through Memorial Day. Another cold front will move through from the north on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in through the middle of next week. A storm system should then impact the region for the end of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Weak upper trough approaches as large ridge builds to the north across Hudson Bay. At the surface, large western Atlantic ridge drifts east, with surface high well north in Canada pushing a backdoor cold front southward toward the area today.
Moderate/marginal instability builds today across portions of the area, but lack of forcing other than sea breeze boundaries should limit shower/thunderstorm development this afternoon to isolated or at most scattered coverage.
Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures should soar well into the 80s, likely reaching 90 in spots away from the coasts. 70s near the coast expected.
There is a moderate risk for rip currents today at area Atlantic Beaches
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night
With the approach of weak trough, and the passage of a back door front that is forecast to move south of the region from high pressure to the north, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase tonight. Some convection could produce heavy downpours, and ample instability is present, along with lift/low level convergence for thunder. Many forecast stability parameters suggest scattered thunderstorm coverage initially. As the night progresses, atmosphere becomes capped, so thunder chances diminish late at night and into Sunday.
The backdoor front does settle to the south, and approaching upper trough should result in weak cyclogenesis along the front to the south later Sunday.
Warm temperatures tonight ahead of the front will abrupartly tumble behind the front as winds shift to the northeast. Expect frontal passage across CT zones first, then southwestward across NYC/NE NJ toward 10Z. Will follow ARW/NMM/namwrf with front timing, and lean toward cooler overnight lows, closer to MET numbers as temps fall late at night.
On Sunday, cloudy skies, E/NE flow and fairly high coverage for showers will result in much cooler temps. Will once again lean or blend cooler MET numbers, just feel namwrf has a better handle on this shallow cool air behind the backdoor front
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
As the wave of low pressure departs to the east, shower chances diminish Sunday night. High pressure looks to produce dry weather beginning Monday. The guidance has trended up with temperatures as a result. A warmup on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in, but a backdoor cold front comes through during the day. Forecast has been kept dry, as GFS in better agreement with consensus. High pressure and dry weather on Wednesday, then a warm front and possible low pressure system for late Thursday and Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been included in the forecast. There could be a connection to Alberto moisture, so if this does occur, locally heavy rain will be possible.
Conds will be fluctuating on the ocean waters through Sunday morning. with seas coming down from 5 ft initially out east, then possibly reaching 5 ft again this evening. A cold frontal passage tonight will be followed by ENE winds likely gusting to 25 kt and seas 5+ ft, both on the ocean. Hazardous ocean seas may linger into Monday. Decided to issue Small Craft Advisory through Sunday night to cover all these periods of elevated seas
Rainfall amounts this weekend could vary quite a bit across the area, but generally expect up to an inch near the coast, with much less possible across the interior locations through the weekend. Cannot rule out minor urban and poor drainage flooding, mainly tonight into Sunday morning.
No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sunday night- Thursday. There is a low potential for locally heavy rain from Thursday night through Friday
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels may be near minor flood thresholds along the south shore back bays of Nassau County and in western Long Island Sound with the Sunday late afternoon and evening high tide cycle. Forcing for increased water levels will be increasing E-NE flow as a front stalls to the south and strong high pressure sets up E of New England, along with increasing astronomical high tides with the full moon on Tuesday the 29th
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6am EDT Monday for ANZ355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.