South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Evening, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft This Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Tstms With Isolated Showers Early This Evening. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Tstms. Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 342pm EDT Tuesday August 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Periods of heavy downpours and scattered thunderstorms likely developing Thursday into Thursday Night, mainly for NYC and points N&W. Isolated instances of flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorm are possible, particularly west of the Hudson River. Additional iso- scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is also possible Friday. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Final day of high pressure Wednesday with seasonable temps and mainly sunny skies. Changes arrive later Thursday in advance of an approaching warm front. At this point the ESATs are not overly impressive compared to past notable heavy rain events so far this warm season. M-Climate and other anomalous indicators are not overly impressive. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) get to 1.75 inches which is high, but not as high or notable as some recent heavy rain occurrences. Surface dew points are forecast to get to the upper 60s and lower 70s so there will be a notable uptick in the humidity during Thursday. The warm front pushes through late Thu/Thu night, followed by a slowing cold front into Friday. The upper trough axis approaches late Thu into Thu night and thus far the NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) and AI guidance appears to having a lack of consolidation with embedded shortwave activity. Will have to wait and see if there is an increase in the bundling or consolidation of shortwave activity in subsequent forecast packages which would increase any synoptic forcing and up the potential for widespread heavy rain. The Colorado State AI guidance is indicating a slight risk of excessive rainfall for late Thursday, while WPC maintains a marginal risk. In terms of convective risk Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe weather for much of the CWA (County Warning Area) including the NYC metro. Latest CAMs show improved parameter space compared to previous runs. Notably, the NAM suite shows 30-45kts of effective shear coupled with 1500-1750 J/kg of surface CAPE. Despite the somewhat elevated parameter space, the front will likely cross through after sunset Thursday which could limit the extent of severe. For Friday with upper level troughing in place and a lingering cold front nearby, there will remain the chance of scattered shower and t-storm activity capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. The front should begin to inch its way offshore Friday night into Saturday morning as per global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) and AI consensus. Therefore at this point in time the weekend appears to be nice and dry with seasonably warm temperatures and slightly lower humidity levels from the previous couple of days. Marine Sub small craft conditions are expected for the remainder of this week. Occasional gusts to 20 kt this afternoon along nearshore waters this afternoon into evening. A southerly flow increases late Wednesday night into Thursday, with ocean seas getting to around 4 ft and gusts approaching 20 kt. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail with seas and winds diminishing for the weekend with a light pressure gradient with high pressure building across for the weekend. Rip Currents Low risk of rips for NYC and western half of LI beaches for this afternoon and evening with a combo of 1 to 2 ft E/SE wind waves and swells, with a moderate risk for the E Suffolk beaches, where there will be a greater influence of 2-3 ft SW wind waves. A moderate risk of rip currents likely developing Wednesday afternoon for all beaches with building 2 ft SE swells. A moderate risk of rip currents expected for Thursday afternoon for all beaches with building 3-4 ft wind waves and lingering 2 ft SE swells. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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