South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Patchy Fog Early. Showers Early, Then Showers Likely With Slight Chance Of Tstms Late. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm Early.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Showers Likely.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then 1 To 2 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 1240 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure continues to shift east and a warm front approaching from the southwest weakens this afternoon bringing unsettled weather. The warm front draws closer tonight and then will remain stationary just near the waters through the middle of the week. High pressure strengthens over the area for the end of the week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
212pm EDT Sunday April 11 2021
A weak warm southwest of the area becomes nearly stationary this afternoon and remains through the middle of next week. High pressure strengthens over the area for the end of the week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Visibilities have improved overall due to rain moving in from the south and southwest, along with the diurnal factors. Dense Fog Advisories have thus been allowed to expire, although a few pockets of localized lower visibilities for a couple of more hours across some eastern sections before the rain arrives.
A weakening warm front approaches from the southwest in association with weakening stacked low over the mid- West. This warm front looks to stall southwest of the area this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the northeast. As the front weakens, the widespread rainfall will become more showery in nature.
Cooler conditions expected today with clouds and rain. Highs will only reach the upper 50s, with a few spots flirting with 60.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Monday
With the warm front remaining to the south, the chance for precipitation will continue tonight. Despite weakening lift at the surface, candidness aloft become unstable, with upwards of 500 J/kg of CAPE in some of the forecast soundings if lifting from 850-800 hPa instead of the surface, and continued mention of the chance for thunder tonight. However, eastern portions, mainly across southern Connecticut, look to be more stable than the rest of the forecast area, as building high pressure stabilizes the atmosphere even aloft, therefore, did not mention thunder for these areas. The chance for thunder decreases through the night, with only a slight chance expected after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorm. However, flash flooding and severe weather are not expected.
With the warm front remaining in the vicinity and cyclonic flow aloft as the upper low over the mid-West finally moves east over Pennsylvania, the chances for showers continue for Monday. Conditions continue to cool for Monday, as the high pressure continues to build in from eastern Canada. Temperatures will only reach the lower 50s.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
A stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity of the cwa will provide a focus for periods of rain/showers thru the middle of the week. The most organized activity continues into Tue, where dpva and mid level frogen will be best. It is a little too far out to have high confidence in where the best bands of precipitation develop, so pops were capped at likely. The focus based on the 12z model consensus is the warning half of the cwa, but again with a nw-se orientation, it will not take much to move to the band to another portion of the forecast area or outside of the cwa altogether.
A downward trend in precipitation chances for Wednesday into Thu. Still a roughly 20-40 Probability of Precipitation thru the period with the lingering h5 low yielding decent lapse rates and cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure ridges across the region Fri and Sat, ending chances for pcpn. NBM probability of precipitation still lingered slight chances for Thu, which were accepted for now until it becomes clear that the h5 low will have indeed exited by then.
Thicknesses are pretty low for Tuesday and Wed, but the bl is modeled to be too warm for any snow for most of the area. Perhaps portions of the interior could see some flakes where lift is maximized. Elsewhere, some IP possible in the area of strongest lift.
The NBM was used for temps for now. However, if confidence increases in the Tue/Wednesday time period, highs will likely need to be dropped about 10 degrees or so.
A dense fog advisory is in effect through 16Z. Showers and turbulent mixing will then help improve the visibility shortly thereafter.
Otherwise winds and seas remain under SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through the early afternoon as high pressure offshore drifts east. A strengthening easterly flow will allow for ocean seas to build to near 5 feet by late this afternoon and wind gusts may be near 25 KT. Ocean winds and seas likely remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through Monday and possibly early Tuesday. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued from late this afternoon through Monday. The non-ocean waters are expected to remain below advisory levels.
Small craft cond will persist on the ocean Monday and Monday ngt. Winds will be mrgnl on the protected waters Mon, so no advy has been issued attm. Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels on Wed, then 5 ft seas possible on the ocean Thu as low pressure deepens over the Atlc.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday. 0.25"-1.00" of rainfall is forecast Sunday through Monday night, with locally higher amounts possible.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Tides will be running high astronomically with a new moon phase. With an onshore flow becoming increasingly persistent late this weekend there is the chance that some locations for the Western Sound Shore in CT and the more western south shore bays will approach their minor coastal flood benchmarks. This will be possible for the Sunday night, Monday day time, and Monday night tide cycles.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.