South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Snow Until Late Afternoon, Then Snow Likely Late. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm Late. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow And Rain After Midnight. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely With Slight Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 425am EST Monday Feb 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There have been no changes to headlines and only some adjustments to snowfall, mainly over western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Blizzard conditions expected to continue through the morning hours, gradually winding down in the afternoon. 2) Additional minor coastal flooding possible with the Monday afternoon high tide cycle. There is a low probability of major coastal/shoreline impacts along the south shore of western Long Island, Twin Forks of LI, and north shore of Long Island. 3) A passing warm front will bring some light snow and rain on Wednesday. A stronger low passing close by will bring additional wintry precipitation Thursday into Thursday night. .KEY MESSAGE 1... A major winter storm will continue to impact the area early this morning with multiple bands of heavy snow expected to pivot NW off the ocean and across the area. The next 4 hours are expected to feature some of the heaviest snowfall with hourly rates of 2 to 3 inches likely. What is a bigger challenge is exactly how far west these bands get and how long they stay over a particular location. Outside of these bands, there is subsidence and lighter snowfall. Much of the area has seen anywhere from 7 to 14 inches, but there were lower amounts across northern and western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. We can expect another 6 to 12 inches, much of which will come the next 6 to 9 hours. The back edge across western Orange County looks like it will be on the low end, perhaps another 4 inches. Hires guidance pointing to this area to be along the back edge in the subsidence of the storm. In addition, don't be surprised to see a brief flash of lightning in the heavy bands. There have been reports from the public as well from lightning detection. As the storm pulls away late this morning into the afternoon, bands on the backside will dissipate, but it could take some time. Hires guidance locking on to an area from eastern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT southward in the NYC/NJ metro. These bands in past historic storms can often be areas of exceptionally high rates, but can be a challenge to forecast. Any lingering snow bands should dissipate by early evening. The wind forecast has changed little with peak winds being this morning into early this afternoon. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph can be expected through the morning hours, with the upper end across far eastern LI and SE CT. Winds will then gradually ramp down through the afternoon into the evening. The good news is the airmass is not exceptionally cold with highs around freezing for most locations. Wind chills values will be in the teens to around 20. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The south shore back bays of LI and Lower NY Harbor achieved minor flood benchmarks this morning. Across the eastern bays of LI, Riverhead did hit moderate. Winds ramped up slower than forecast. This is combined with a northerly flow has kept water levels in many cases about a foot lower than expected. We are seeing a similar occurrence across LI Sound. The coastal flood warning will be allowed to expire. An additional round of minor coastal flooding likely with the afternoon high tide cycle for the southern bays of Long island from residual tidal piling, and along the twin forks, particularly the north shore of the south fork of LI and Orient Point. Along the oceanfront, areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible into Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 3... As a clipper low passes to the north on Wednesday, an associated warm front should bring some light snow and rain on Wed. Accumulations should be on the light side, ranging from less than an inch across Long Island, to around an inch in NYC and along the CT coastline, to 1-2 inches north/west of there. A stronger low moving from the OH valley to the lower Great Lakes on Thu could bring more wintry precip. NBM thermal profiles were mainly supportive of snow and/or rain. Any snow amts should be light, no more than an inch or two of snow most places and a light glaze of ice inland NW of NYC. Either way advisories could be needed for parts of the interior north/west of I-287 in NJ/NY and along the I-84 corridor in CT. High temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to lower 30s, then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for gradual snow melt each day, and with mostly sub-freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent re-freeze of snow melt. Marine A major winter storm will impact the waters through Monday. A Storm Warning remains in effect for all waters expect the NY Harbor where a Gale Warning is in effect. Winds will continue to increase through about daybreak. A brief period of hurricane force wind gusts are possible in the eastern ocean zone (Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point). Strong winds will lead to 14 to 20 ft seas on the ocean and about 6 to 10 inches on the LI Sound. Conditions gradually start improving this afternoon into tonight. Additional headlines will need to be issued as conditions step down. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions linger into Tuesday morning on the eastern Sound and Peconic/Gardiners bays, with NW flow still gusting up to 25 kt, and on the ocean for gusts up to 30 kt for seas 6-8 ft. Some 5-6 ft seas should linger on the ocean into early Tuesday evening. An extended period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond then likely on the ocean from Wednesday into Fri as a series of frontal systems pass through, mainly for hazardous seas. SW flow 20-25 kt expected on the ocean with warm frontal approaches daytime Wednesday and again Thu night. Along the oceanfront, areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible tonight into Monday morning. Climate With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites: Sunday 2/22 Monday 2/23 Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987 NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Blizzard Warning until 6pm EST this evening for CTZ005>012. Coastal Flood Warning until 5am EST early this morning for CTZ009-010. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EST early this morning for CTZ011-012. NY...Blizzard Warning until 6pm EST this evening for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Warning until 5am EST early this morning for NYZ071-073-078-176-177. Coastal Flood Warning until 6am EST early this morning for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11am this morning to 6pm EST this evening for NYZ079>081-179. NJ...Blizzard Warning until 6pm EST this evening for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Marine Storm Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ331-332-340- 345-350-353-355. Storm Warning until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ335. Gale Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ338. |
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