South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 358pm EST Tuesday Nov 5 2024 Synopsis High pressure over the Western Atlantic will be in control through Wednesday. A weak cold front passes through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another cold front will pass through Friday night, followed by building high pressure through Saturday. A complex frontal system will affect the area late Sunday into early next week. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning Warm conditions are expected tonight for early November as strong ridging resides over the Western Atlantic. An area of low clouds/stratus off the Delmarva may push NE tonight as the boundary layer cools. Most of the guidance has this skirting eastern Long Island and potentially far southeast Connecticut before midnight. The low level jet will be strengthening so the expectation is that the clouds will diminish in coverage due to stronger turbulent mixing. The SW flow/mixing should also prevent these clouds from becoming widespread and should also prevent any fog development. Shortwave energy looks to ride atop the ridge offshore late tonight, which likely brings and increase in mid to upper level clouds, mainly NW of NYC. Temperatures will be well above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s. .SHORT TERM /6am WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper ridge largely remains just to our south on Wednesday with deep troughing over the western US. The ridge should weaken Wednesday night allowing a cold front to pass across the area into early Thursday. The associated northern stream trough then passes over New England Thursday afternoon and evening. Record warmth is forecast on Wednesday. There may be some mid to upper level clouds to start the day, but a partly cloudy day is expected. SW flow around the ridging will give temperatures another boost compared to readings observed on Tuesday. Model guidance typically runs too cool given the air mass is unseasonably warm and well into fall. The spread in the NBM is small and have sided closer to the 90th percentile, especially away from the immediate coast. Highs should be able to reach 80 degrees across urban NE NJ with upper 70s to around 80 over the NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. The SSW component to the winds further east should hold temperatures in the low to mid 70s. All six of our first order climate sites are predicted to set new record highs for November 6th. Please see the climate section below for the current high temperature records for this date. The cold front will move through from NW to SE Wednesday night into Thursday morning. It will still remain mild with partly to mostly cloudy skies. No measureable rain is expected as there is little to no moisture available. The front should be south of Long Island around or shortly after day break Thursday. The air mass does not significantly cool behind the front and another unseasonably warm day is anticipated on Thursday. Dew points should fall into the 40s for much of the area under modest NW flow. The NW, downsloping flow will likely help push temperatures into the lower 70s across the southern half of the area and upper 60s northern half. No records are expected to be broken on Thursday. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday Key Points: * Cooler, but still above normal temperatures continue Friday through the weekend. * Widespread light rain likely late Sunday into early next week as a frontal system moves through. High pressure starts to build in Thursday night after the passage of a cold front, with zonal flow aloft. The front will likely pass through dry, but a few sprinkles can not be completely ruled out. High pressure builds in thereafter and will remain in control through at least early Sunday. This pattern will result in cooler, but still above normal high temperatures for this time of year, with highs forecast to be in the 60s. Saturday will be closest to average. Confidence is increasing that we will see widespread light rainfall for the first time in over a month late Sunday into Monday. An upper level low will lift out of the southwestern US on Friday and head towards the Great Lakes along with the associated surface low. This will drag a cold front through late Monday into Monday night. While there are some timing and evolution differences among the guidance, there is general agreement of at least widespread light rain. Marine Updated the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to include the eastern Long Island Sound east of the CT River for tonight into early Wednesday afternoon. SW winds will increase tonight with gusts 25-30 kt on the ocean and eastern Long Island Sound. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft on the ocean. The Advisory will run through Wednesday evening E of Moriches Inlet as seas will be slowest to subside below 5 ft there. There remains potential for a few gusts to 25 kt along the adjacent Long Iland Bays. Conditions will then be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels on Thursday. Conditions remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Friday. There is a chance of 25 kt gusts with another cold front Fri night, but this may be brief or occasional and thus confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast just yet. Fire Weather A Red Flag Warning has been issued for CT based on collaboration with CT land managers. While RH will only fall to 50-60 percent, SW winds will gust 20 to 30 mph along with very dry fine fuels. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week. Climate Record high temperatures are possible at most if not all sites on Wednesday. Daily record high temperatures for Wednesday Nov 6: EWR: 80/1948 BDR: 72/2022 NYC: 75/2022 LGA: 75/2022 JFK: 75/2015 ISP: 74/2022 Daily record high minimum temperatures for Wednesday Nov 6: EWR: 66/2022 BDR: 62/2022* NYC: 66/2022* LGA: 65/2015 JFK: 64/2022 ISP: 65/2022 * And in other years NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Red Flag Warning from 8am to 6pm EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 1pm EST Wednesday for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Wednesday night for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Wednesday for ANZ355. |