South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Evening And Overnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain And Snow Early This Evening, Then Rain Late This Evening And Overnight. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm Late This Evening And Overnight. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming S 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Mon...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow Showers. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Snow Showers Likely. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Snow Showers. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 409pm EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Synopsis A low pressure system impacts the local area as it passes to the northwest on Sunday and then to the north Sunday night. A strong cold front will pass through behind the low late Sunday afternoon into the early evening. Low pressure spins over the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Strong high pressure dives south into the middle of the country Tuesday into Wednesday and gradually noses in. Low pressure then emerges out of Southeastern US. This low strengthens as it attempts to lift north along and just off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday. The low pulls away Thursday night with high pressure building into next weekend. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning A deepening surface low will continue to impact the local area as it approaches the eastern Great Lakes through Sunday morning, sending a warm front towards the area. Snow across the area will transition to plain rain from south to north through the overnight hours. However, while plenty of warm air moves in aloft, it will take a bit longer for the low-level cold air across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior souther CT to get scoured out which could impact the snow and ice amounts up or down depending on the arrival of the warm air. Still looking at snowfall totals across NYC and LI between 1-2 inches before a changeover to rain this evening. To the north and west where winter weather advisories remain in effect, expect anywhere from 2 to 4 inches. The upper end of these ranges will be closer to I-84 and some of the higher terrain areas well inland. High temperatures in upper 20s to low to mid 30s will continue to gradually warm up through the overnight hours. By daybreak, areas well inland will be in the lower to mid 30s, with LI and the NYC around 40. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Sunday Night Low pressure is forecast to be west of the area Sunday morning with the associated warm front near or just south of LI. The first shot of warm advection precipitation will lift to the north and east with a secondary surge of warm advection as a southerly LLJ approaches from the south, strongest to the south and east of LI, with the potential for 75 to 85 kt just a few thousand feet. Airmass will be strongly inverted and any mixing of higher winds from aloft will likely not to happen until late in the afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west and the inversion erodes. With the warm front still in close proximity, strong thermal forcing both in the warm sector and to the north should allow for more a convective type of rainfall. Rainfall during this time will be moderate to occasionally heavy with the best thermal forcing across eastern LI and SE CT. By the time the cold front passes late afternoon/early evening, much of the area is forecast to have received 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent, with the highest amounts across LI and CT. A high wind watch continues for the entire area Sunday night into Monday. Just ahead and behind the cold front, there is the potential for wind gusts of 40-50kt, especially with the pressure rises immediately behind the cold front. Winds at the top of mixed layer will be around 50 kt, and on average about 40 kt through the layer. Thus, high winds are possible through the overnight, aided by strong cold advection and cyclonic flow. Temperatures will fall back below freezing and into the 20s by daybreak Monday. Long Term - Monday Through Saturday * Windy with the potential for strong winds on Monday. * The potential remains and has increased some for a significant / major winter storm in the Wednesday night - Thursday night time frame. Windy conditions continue as a strong pressure gradient remains over the area due the departing low that will spin over the Canadian Maritimes on Monday and strong arctic high pressure (1050-1054 mb) that builds in from southern Canada. W winds of up to 25 mph are forecast, with gusts around 40 mph in the morning. Winds diminish late in the morning into the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes a bit. The high continues to nose in from the north and west Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping the region dry. As the arctic air moves south, a baroclinic zone sets up over the southern states, allowing low pressure to begin to take shape. This low then treks east along the gulf states, and ejects off the Southeast US coast Wednesday night, then tracks northeast into Thursday, pulling away from the area Thursday night. With the current deterministic model suite, most models track the low around or just east of the 40/70 benchmark, a favorable track for an all snow event. Current NBM forecast also shows an all snow forecast, leading to higher confidence in an all snow event. Despite confidence increasing in an all snow event, the exact track of the low still remains in question. If the low pushes to far east, it will take the majority of the precipitation with it, and thus, snow will be much less and limited to the coast. As for ensembles, current ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble give coastal areas a 30-40% chance of 24 total precipitation of great than half an inch liquid equivalent, while the same metric is only 10-20% with the GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble. Current NBM is closer to the ECMWF ensemble. The finer details will be ironed out as we get closer to the event, and more of the higher resolution models come into play. While it is too early to give snowfall forecast for this event, GEFS plumes show a mean of about 2.5" for KISP, while the GFS deterministic is about 9.0" for the event, with a fair number of members below the 2.5" mean. This underscores the uncertainty with this upcoming event. Marine High pressure over the waters weakens and then dissipates to the east through tonight. A storm system will impact the area with a strengthening southerly flow on Sunday, followed by strong west winds Sunday night. A gale warning has been posted for all waters Sunday afternoon through the first half of Monday night with a storm watch issued for the eastern ocean zone Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Seas will build to 5 to 8 ft on LI Sound and 10 to 18 ft on the ocean waters overnight Sunday. Gale conditions across all waters on Monday with potential Storm force gusts for the eastern ocean zone, in the wake of a storm moving through the Canadian maritimes. High ocean seas of 7 to 16 ft Monday morning, diminish through the day, but remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across all waters through Tuesday. Non ocean waters drop below 25 kt late in the day/Tuesday evening, while ocean water gusts will diminish from west to east Tuesday night. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected across all waters Wednesday and much of Thursday. Winds increase a coastal low impacts the waters late in the day, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions over oceans waters first late Thursday, then across all waters Thursday night. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are anticipated from this weekend's storm system despite the fact that 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid is expected across the area. Thereafter no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Sunday for CTZ005>008. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for CTZ009>012. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Sunday for NYZ067-068. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for NYZ069>071. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 7am EST Sunday for NJZ002. High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Winter Weather Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for NJZ004- 103>105. Marine Gale Warning from 4pm Sunday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from 11am to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ350. Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ350. Gale Warning from 11am Sunday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ353-355. |
New York Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite