South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 246pm EDT Wednesday Oct 1 2025 Synopsis A large area of high pressure builds in from the north into Thursday and then remains over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. The high then moves slowly offshore the beginning of next week with a cold front approaching the area late Tuesday. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning After near record warmth to close September, the month of October opens with a more typical autumn air mass. Large dome of high pressure centered over Quebec continues to build south over the Northeast through tonight. The tightened pressure gradient between the building high and a pair of tropical cyclones to our south and east over the Atlantic has led to gusty NE flow locally, though these winds diminish into this evening as the gradient relaxes some, but not entirely. The lingering flow could mitigate the most efficient radiative cooling tonight, but it's not out of the question some areas decouple and cool a bit more than forecast. Skies remain clear with the high pressure and subsidence as temperatures fall back into the 40s for most, or lower 50s in the NYC metro. Coldest spots in Orange Co could fall into the upper 30s. Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Friday Night Sprawling ridge and surface high pressure dominates the period as the center settles over the Northeast. Thursday likely the coolest day this week with the core of the autumn air mass in place. Highs in the afternoon should get into the mid 60s just about everywhere, or about 5 degrees below normal for early October. A cirrus veil looks to move in by late afternoon from the west, otherwise abundant sunshine prevails. Another cool night then expected, and with lighter flow, anticipate more efficient radiative cooling and could see the typical spots in Orange County and the LI Pine Barrens fall into the upper 30s into Friday morning. Blended in MAV/MET data with the national blended guidance to better capture this. The center of the high looks to drift overhead on Friday, and absent the lingering cirrus, sunshine continues in calm conditions and seasonable. By late day, the upper ridge over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS begins to translate east, helping to usher in a warmer air mass for the weekend. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday Key Points: * Vertically stacked high pressure will remain in place this weekend into early next week with dry conditions and above normal temps. * The surface high will slide east east Monday night into Tuesday and the ridge aloft will flatten as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. There is a chance of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, and if the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is correct even this time frame could remain dry. * Temperatures through most of the period will remain well above normal. Temps on Wednesday will depend on the progression of the front, and could also end up well above rather than closer to normal if the frontal timing is slower than forecast. Marine SE-S swell from a pair of tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic and an easterly wind wave continue to produce 6 to 10 ft seas on coastal ocean waters today. In addition, NE gusts 25 to 30 kt remain possible into early this evening on all waters before diminishing. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) extended until 6Z Friday on the ocean waters for lingering seas above 5 ft. Elsewhere, subsiding NE winds should allow for the Advisory to expire on most the LI Sound, back bays, south shore bays, and NY Harbor by early this evening. Lingering seas above 5 ft likely persist on the Sound east of the mouth of the CT River through tonight due to shoaling of the swells between Montauk Point and Block Island. Winds and seas then remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels from Fri through Monday night as swell subsides and high pressure remains over the waters. Hydrology No hydrologic issues expected through early next week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Suffolk, Nassau, and Queens for high surf impacting the oceanfront into early this evening. Southerly swell from a pair of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic will continue to produce large breaking waves along the oceanfront into this evening. Expect surf of 6 to 10 ft due to an incoming S swell of 6 ft 15s. Some additional beach flooding and minor damage to dune structures is possible. Coastal flooding beyond the beachfront is unlikely. The swell and surf begin to lower this evening into Thursday. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ331- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. |
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