South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Subsiding To 1 To 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain And Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu Night...N Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Snow Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
| 625 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Low pressure along the Carolina coast will intensify as it moves north through the Mid Atlantic region tonight, then across Pennsylania and into upstate New York on Monday and into Quebec Monday night. After high pressure builds in on Tuesday, a warm front will arrive on Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. A large dome of high pressure will build from the west Thursday into Friday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
639pm EST Sunday Jan 16 2022
Low pressure along the Carolina coast will intensify as it moves north through the Mid Atlantic region tonight, then across Pennsylvania and into upstate New York on Monday and into Quebec Monday night. After high pressure builds in on Tuesday, a warm front will arrive on Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. A large dome of high pressure will build from the west Thursday into Friday. Developing offshore low pressure may come close to the area next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
The northern edge of the precipitation shield continues to advance northward towards the area with snow now being reported as far north as Somerset Airport in NJ. There is a sharp gradient in temperatures closer to the coast with rain along the NJ coastal plain. We are also seeing temperatures across eastern Long Island rise into the middle 30s this evening. Data coming in from the 00z OKX RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) depicts the warming just at the surface right now, but the warm advection is increasing as indicated by strengthening low level E flow. Think some light snow should break out in the NYC metro between 00-01z and then quickly advance northward through 03-04z. Some snow may briefly mix in across Eastern Long Island, but should become plain rain as temperatures rise.
Increasing S flow should overwhelm cooling from aloft and bring a change to all rain across Long Island, most of the NYC metro area by late evening and for coastal CT by midnight. Most of these places could see a coating of accumulation, and up to inch just N and W of NYC, and across S CT. Cold ground temps even as temps rise above freezing could lead to spotty light freezing rain, with SPS issued for those areas.
Farther north, with a colder onset think most areas north of I-287 and the Merritt Pkwy will see at least 2 inches of snow accumulation plus a light glaze of ice, with Orange and W Passaic seeing as much as 3-5 inches of snow especially in the higher elevations, before a wintry mix overnight and a gradual change to all rain from S to N after midnight. Expanded winter weather advy down into northern Fairfield/New haven in CT, S Westchester and Rockland in NY, and W Bergen/E Passaic in NJ.
A very tight pressure gradient between the surface low and retreating high pressure out over the Atlantic, and strong upper divergence/lift ahead of a negatively-tilted closed low lifting through the Mid Atlantic region, will produce a band of strong winds and heavy rain overnight. Kept high wind headlines as is, as E Long Island and coastal SE CT should see a period of sustained winds 40-45 mph with gusts 60-65 mph, with areas to the west (mainly coastal SW CT, western Long Island, and NYC) seeing winds just shy of those values, sustained 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph.
Temps overnight should rise to the mid 40s in the NYC metro area and along the coast, and to the upper 30s/lower 40s inland.
Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through Monday Night
The low will be quick moving and lift north with the upper trough, and precipitation will be quickly diminishing. However, wrap-around moisture and cyclonic flow will both remain, and there will be a chance of precipitation through daytime Mon until the low lifts well to the north. Winds especially along the coast will still be brisk, out of the SW 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph, perhaps as high as 40 mph along the south shore of Long Island.
Morning highs in the upper 30s ad 40s should gradually fall to the 30s throughout by evening, and into the 20s Monday night.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
No major changes to the forecast in the long term.
The pressure gradient in the wake of the departing storm system relaxes Tuesday as high pressure settles nearby. This will result in a good amount of sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night.
As high pressure slips offshore a return flow gets established on Wednesday. A warm front extending down into the region from a clipper low moving through the Great Lakes will bring more in the way of clouds. Temperatures will turn a bit milder and should be a few degrees above normal. The clipper low then moves to the north Wednesday night, dragging its cold front across the region. There won't be a lot of moisture and lift with this system with only perhaps a few rain and snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Therefore the frontal system should come through without any meaningful precipitation. Into Thursday a large 1040 mb high will move into the the nation's mid section and will build east through Friday. This will provide a return to much colder conditions, with noticeably colder air moving in for Thursday night into Friday. At the present time, it does not appear to be quite as cold as recent cold waves. Wind chills however could get down into the single digits in most places Friday morning. It appears temperatures will run about 10 degrees or so below normal by Thursday night and Friday. Current guidance consensus has temperatures not getting out of the 20s region wide on Friday.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the upcoming weekend forecast and whether a storm will develop along the coast and how close it may get into next weekend. Model spread and uncertainty is high to start next weekend. There are many ensemble members that show offshore and closer to the coast solutions. The time frame will need to be monitored in the coming days.
Storm warnings expanded to include the South Shore Bays. Otherwise no change to current marine headlines.
Can not rule out a few gusts up to 50 kt on the western Sound and on the western ocean waters, but think duration should be brief enough to preclude expanding the storm warning any farther westward.
After low pressure passes to the NW on Mon, SW gales are likely on the ocean and eastern Sound/bays through daytime Mon, with gusts up to 40 kt, with these winds shifting W Monday night.
A NW flow will continue on Tuesday resulting in gale conditions for the ocean waters at least through the morning, and possibly into a portion of the afternoon, with small craft conditions elsewhere. Seas will remain elevated on the ocean through Tuesday, and then start to come down Tuesday night with sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions returning from west to east. However, a return flow gets established quickly on Wednesday with any brief sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions being short lived. Winds and seas will climb during the day on Wednesday resulting in a return to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then expected to return to the non-ocean waters at some point Wednesday night. A N-NW flow arrives for Thursday which should result in marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the eastern shoreline waters, along with the ocean waters.
Liquid equivalent precipitation of 1.25 to 1.75 inches expected tonight into early Mon. Much of this precipitation is expected to fall as rain along the coast. Rain could be heavy at times late tonight into early Monday morning, which could result in minor nuisance flooding. Farther north, at least some of the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix and/or snow with a changeover to all rain this evening into late tonight.
The river gauge at the Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.
No Hydrologic impacts are expected Tuesday through the end of the week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE COAST.
LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF LONG ISLAND SHORELINE MONDAY.
The timeframe for coastal flooding is from 4AM until 2PM Monday around the times of high tide in response to a long fetch E-SE gale to storm force onshore flow. The increase in winds and fetch will occur as a complex low pressure storm system moves northward along the coastal plain from the Mid Atlantic.
Earliest high tide is at Reynolds Channel at 653AM and latest high tide is at Riverhead NY at 1139AM. There were some minor adjustments to the end time of coastal hazards to give more time past individual high tides. Forecast still has greater weight for higher surge guidance and takes into account for greatest wave forcing and resulting total water levels a few hours before and after high tide. Forecast takes into account ESTOFS, ETSS, and the Stevens NY HOPS ensemble 75th percentile.
Latest changes included upgrading the Lower NY Harbor to a coastal flood warning. Most of the coastline is under a coastal flood warning. The only coastal zones not in it are the Upper NY Harbor coastal zones of Eastern Union NJ, Eastern Essex NJ, Hudson NJ, and Manhattan NY. Those zones are in a coastal flood advisory.
Overall, greatest forecast surge is expected across Suffolk County Long Island shorelines and CT shorelines as well as Southern Westchester shorelines where surge is forecast to get to around 3.5 to 4.5 ft. Rest of the coastline surge forecast is around 2 to 3.5 ft except for Upper NY Harbor. Widespread moderate coastal flooding is expected for much of the coastlines with localized major coastal flooding possible for parts of the Long Island shoreline. Upper NY Harbor is expected to experience mostly minor coastal flooding but isolated moderate coastal flooding will still be possible. Therefore the Upper NY Harbor is under a coastal flood advisory.
The forecast still has winds shifting from E/SE to more SSW Monday morning between 6AM and 10AM from SW to NE. This will be before high tide for respective locations. This will reduce the highest limit of total water levels and therefore the major coastal flooding, 3 ft above ground level of water inundation. However, the localized major coastal flooding still cannot be ruled out and will be localized towards parts of Southern Nassau and Suffolk Counties especially the oceanfront, Peconic/Gardiners Bays as well as the CT coast.
In addition to the stillwater level, battering surf of 9 to 13 ft is likely along the oceanfront tonight into Monday morning, with areas of dune erosion and scattered overwashes likely during the Monday morning high tide. Breaking surf of 4 to 7 ft is quite possible on western LI Sound Tonight before high tide, which may result in some minor shoreline impacts. This wave action likely begins to subside before the time of high tide as E/ESE winds subside and shift SSW, preventing widespread major shoreline flood impacts, but 3 to 4 ft surf may still be ongoing and directed towards the the CT shoreline during the time of high tide as SSW gales begin to develop. This could result in locally major flood impacts along the CT shoreline during the time of high tide. In addition, the windshift may force residual surge to south facing shorelines of the southern and eastern bays of LI. Also it may allow for surge to slosh towards eastern Great South Bay. Low predictability on this, but potential scenarios that are covered under the warning.
KOKX radar is back in service.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10am EST Monday for CTZ012. Winter Weather Advisory until 6am EST Monday for CTZ005-006. Coastal Flood Warning from 5am to 1pm EST Monday for CTZ009>012. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am EST Monday for CTZ009. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am EST Monday for CTZ008-010-011. NY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10am EST Monday for NYZ079-081. Coastal Flood Warning from 4am to 2pm EST Monday for NYZ079- 081. Winter Weather Advisory until 6am EST Monday for NYZ067>070. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4am to 10am EST Monday for NYZ072. Coastal Flood Warning from 5am to 1pm EST Monday for NYZ071. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8am EST Monday for NYZ071>075-176>179. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10am EST Monday for NYZ078-080. Coastal Flood Warning from 4am to noon EST Monday for NYZ074- 075-080-178-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 7am to 1pm EST Monday for NYZ073- 078-176-177. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 6am EST Monday for NJZ002-004- 103. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4am to 10am EST Monday for NJZ006-106-108.
Storm Warning until 10am EST Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345- 350-353. Gale Warning until 10am EST Monday for ANZ335-338. Gale Warning until 6am EST Tuesday for ANZ355.