South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers And Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 408pm EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Statements and Advisories are in effect for tonight's high tide cycle for portions of the coast, and have also been issued for the Sunday evening/ night high tide cycle. High Rip Current Risk for ocean beaches Sunday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening. 2) High rip current risk for ocean beaches Sunday. 3) Minor coastal flooding for portions of the coast for the evening high tide cycles through Sunday evening / night. .KEY MESSAGE 1... The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for the majority of the CWA, with a marginal risk across far eastern sections in the convective outlook for later Sunday. Forecast soundings are suggestive of some capping / convective inhibition in the lower portions of the mid levels. Instability is forecast to decrease further northeast and east across the region, with moderate instability further west and southwest. One favorable aspect to convective chances is around storm organization as shear values would be sufficient and forecast around 40 kt or thereabouts late in the day, and increasing further into the evening. However, with the aforementioned inhibition potential with a weak elevated warm front possibly existing in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front, convection and especially severe convection potential is quite conditional. If some updrafts can break through then there would be a strong to damaging wind threat with any storms as low level lapse rates are high and with LCLs slightly elevated there could be strong downdraft wind potential. At this point in time storm rotation and the best supercell potential appears to reside just south of the area. Will continue to monitor this for a potential shift further north into our area. At this time the potential for hail and localized flash flooding is marginal at best as storms are expected to move along, and the relatively higher mid- level lapse rate potential residing just west and southwest of the region. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity is from approximately from 4 pm to 10 pm as the cold front is expected to pass through from west to east around 12 am to 6 am Monday. On a side note; though it will be quite warm to hot on Sunday, humidity levels are not forecast to be overly oppressive with dew point readings forecast to remain primarily in the lower half of the 60s. This should lead to heat indices below 95, and closer to 90 across the warmest locations. Thus heat headlines should not be needed for Sunday. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A high rip current risk is in place for all ocean beaches for Sunday. For the more eastern ocean beaches the risk may be more on a moderate scale initially, but by the mid to late afternoon a S wind increasing should produce strong rip currents. Winds will increase out of the south at 15 to 20 kt for western beaches, and more like 10 to 15 kt out east. Surf heigheights look to peak at around 3 to 4 ft along with a lingering 6 to 8 second swell component out of the southeast. The risk should fall to a moderate level on Monday, however it is not out of the question that the high risk could linger into a portion of Monday. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The risk of brief minor coastal flooding for the more vulnerable locations of Fairfield CT, NE NJ, Staten Island, and some of the western south shore bays of Nassau and Queens has increased slightly for tonight. Any minor coastal flooding will likely become a little more common for the Sunday evening / night high tide. Any statements for SW CT, and So. Nassau have been upgraded to an advisory for tonight, with minor flooding even more likely now for Sunday night which now includes a good portion of NE NJ and Staten Island, and Queens where statements and adivisories have been included. Also portions of Southeast Suffolk will approach minor flood benchmarks for Sunday night as well as Lower Westchester. With tides being astronomically high, minor coastal flood for some or most of these same locations could linger into Monday and Tuesday nights. Marine Sub advisory conditions prevail tonight into mid morning on Sunday. Towards midday and into the afternoon small craft conditions develop and should continue through about midnight as a southerly wind increases, and then conditions subside from west to east with all zones likely returning to sub advisory conditions by 6 am Monday. Sub advisory conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday. During the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday a few gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western ocean so a few brief periods of marginal small craft gusts cannot be ruled out, however mainly sub advisory conditions are expected to prevail. Climate Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 13: KEWR: 74/2005 KBDR: 71/2017 KNYC: 77/2017 KLGA: 80/2017 KJFK: 72/2017 KISP: 70/1969 NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9pm this evening to midnight EDT tonight for CTZ009. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10pm Sunday to 1am EDT Monday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm to 10pm EDT Sunday for NYZ074-179. High Risk for Rip Currents from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6pm to 10pm EDT Sunday for NJZ006-106-108. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Sunday to 3am EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Sunday to 6am EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night for ANZ355. |
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