South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Se Winds Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light And Variable. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Patchy Fog In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To Around 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1038am EDT Sat August 8 2020
A nearly stationary front will remain south of the area today. High pressure will build in for Sunday and Monday, then move out into the western Atlantic late Monday and Tuesday as a cold front approaches. The front will slowly pass across through Thursday, then stall to the south on Friday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Forecast generally on track this morning. Some clearing is taking place across the interior, and should begin to work its way towards the coast through the rest of the morning.
Otherwise, a nearly stationary front will slowly sink south today as shortwave passes over the region today. Best forcing lies to the south of the area, but a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The highest chance lies across the Lower Hudson Valley.
Temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s and lower to middle 80s. This will be just a degree or two below our normal for this time of year.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Sunday
Surface high pressure begins to build into the region tonight, with mainly dry conditions. While no precipitation is expected, low stratus/fog is expected to develop around midnight and continue through sunrise Sunday morning. Uncertain how dense and fog will be so will just call it patchy for now. Lows tonight will continue to be warm ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Ridging will continue to gradually build into the northeast on Sunday. A weak shortwave moves into the ridge during the afternoon, passing mainly to the north. There will be increasing CAPE and instability during the day and isolated convection will be possible along sea breeze boundaries with increased convergence. Some of the forecast models to indicate at least some light precipitation Sunday afternoon. Have continued to not included slight chance probabilities, however did increase POPs with sea breeze development.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Friday
The building ridge will usher in increasing heat and humidity into mid week. There is increasing consensus and confidence that portions of the region will reach mid 90s heat indices Monday through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, as temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The ridge will keep another shortwave moving to the north Monday. The only real change in the long term forecast is the slower trend in the longwave closed low moving across southern Canada and into the northern tier of the plains and upper midwest into the midweek period. This will delay the approach of a weak cold front, with Tuesday remaining mostly dry. There may be a few afternoon thunderstorms along the periphery of the ridge, and have slight chances into the Lower Hudson Valley.
As the mid and upper flow becomes more parallel to the cold front, the front will slow its eastward progression, and convection will once again be mainly to the west and north Wednesday. The front is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday and then stall south of the region Friday.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Wednesday with a light pressure gradient over the area.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Wednesday.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.