South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Rain Late This Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1051am EST Fri Nov 16 2018 Synopsis: Deep low pressure will quickly track northeast along the coast into the Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return for Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening Precipitation continues to rapidly decrease across the area as low pressure departs. Although there may be a light wintry mix over the next hour for eastern locales, accumulations are expected to be minimal, so the winter weather headlines have been allowed to expire. Some lingering issues with ponding of water will be possible due to melting snow and clogged drains from downed leaves. Fair weather can be expected by afternoon. Strong winds can be expected as the low pulls away, and a few gusts up to 50 mph cannot be ruled out from the NW near the coast through the remainder of the morning. As such, issued a wind advisory this morning for coastal locations including NYC, Long Island, and coastal CT. NW winds remain gusty this afternoon, but do diminish some. Max temperatures today will be in the low to mid 40s across the interior with mid to low 50s along the coast Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday Skies should clear this evening as the low pulls away. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s well inland to mid/upper 30s NYC metro/Long Island. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50 Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday Through the long term period the Pacific/western ridge will remain while a trough remains across the central and eastern US. Northern stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance. Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave passes. Surface high pressure will be over the area for Thanksgiving as another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough. Temperatures will be moderating for Thanksgiving, still remaining below seasonal normals. A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states. At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday. Marine Discussion Gale Warnings are in effect. NW winds are rapidly strengthening as low pressure quickly departs to the northeast. The strongest winds will occur this morning, and an isolated gusts to storm force may be possible. Gale force winds will continue for all waters behind the low through much of the day. Rough seas will gradually subside as the day progresses. Gusty winds continue tonight, mainly peaking at 30 kt. Westerly winds and gusts will be diminishing through the day Saturday as low pressure departs to the northeast and high pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters. Winds and seas on the non ocean waters are likely to be below Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday morning. However, ocean seas will be on going at Small Craft Advisory levels, with wind gusts marginal. By late Saturday winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels Saturday night through Tuesday night with high pressure in control most of the time. A weak wave of low pressure moves north of the waters late Sunday through Monday Hydrology No hydrologic issues are expected today and through Thanksgiving Day Tides / Coastal Flooding Water levels have subsided below flood levels as winds have turned to a more northwesterly direction following the departing area of low pressure. Around 3-4 ft tidal departures were noted earlier this morning. As high tide has passed, water levels are expected to continue to fall. Water levels are expected to be significantly lower for the afternoon high tide, but could have some residual minor flooding issues in eastern Great South Bay with a switch to westerly winds if water does not recede quickly enough. Elsewhere water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for Friday. High surf of 8 to 12 ft along with elevated water levels will result in widespread beach erosion and flooding early this morning. Localized minor dune erosion is possible. Along western LI Sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may cause some splashover seawalls and exacerbate any lingering localized coastal flooding along shoreline areas Equipment NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for CTZ009>012. NY...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ071>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...None. MARINE... Gale Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. |
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