Marine Weather Net

South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ345 Forecast Issued: 704 PM EST Thu Dec 01 2022

Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft.
Fri...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight.
Sat...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers.
Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Tue...S Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
718pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022

Synopsis
High pressure remains over the area through Friday night, before giving way to a fast moving cold front Saturday. High pressure follows for Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system may impact the weather either next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Forecast on track this evening. High pressure continues to build into the area tonight. The pressure gradient will continue to relax, allowing winds to become light just about everywhere after midnight. Clear skies, combined with the light winds, will result in good radiational cooling. Expect temperatures tonight to fall into the 20s and lower 30s. A few readings in the teens can not be ruled out, especially across the usual colder spots.

Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
The high will remain near the region Friday, with a continued dry and sunny forecast expected. Winds will become more southerly, allowing temperatures to climb into the 40s and lower 50s.

The high will slide east late in the day Friday and Friday night. This will allow the next frontal system to approach from the west. Clouds will gradually increase and lower overnight. Also, there is a chance that some light precipitation starts moving in before sunrise across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. Any precipitation that falls will be light. Lows Friday night will fall into the 30s and 40s.

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
Global deterministic models and ensemble means are in good agreement with the pattern evolution this weekend, then diverge early next week. The forecast thinking has not changed much with regards to the quick moving frontal system on Saturday.

Deepening low pressure will be moving across southeast Canada on Saturday, sending a fast moving cold front across the region late in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, strong warm advection will take place along with a steepening pressure gradient. Low and middle level flow increases as a result with 50-65 kt between 925- 950 mb. This is about 5-10 kt weaker than what was observed on Wednesday. Gusty SW winds 30-40 mph are forecast with the strongest winds occurring across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. The thinking continues to be that winds will fall short of advisory levels on Saturday. The low level jet quickly pushes to the east late Saturday afternoon and evening with the cold front following around 00z.

Moisture levels are not as high as Wednesday as well, but the fast moving system should develop a band of showers moving west to east during the morning and afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts of one quarter to one third of an inch are forecast. The guidance has been relatively consistent with these amounts, which makes sense given the fast nature of the front.

Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures are expected ahead of the front. High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday night behind the front bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures. The atmosphere also quickly dries out with winds gradually weakening through Saturday night. There is good agreement among the modeling that the high pressure remains in control through Monday.

The modeling then diverges Tuesday into the middle of the week. A large upper level low over Canada will start sinking south into the northern US while southern ridging will attempt to build northward. There will be several pieces of energy moving between the two systems, with potential remaining for the next front/low pressure to impact the region either Tuesday or Wednesday. The consensus of the guidance has the front moving through Tuesday into Tuesday night, but there are several members that have it occurring on Wednesday. The overall set up favors plain rain as high pressure moves offshore early in the week and the primary low moving over or to our north and west. Have continued with chance Probability of Precipitation Tues/Tues night and slow down the lowering probabilities to account for any potential delayed timing. It does appear like another progressive system which should limit precipitation amounts. Temperatures rebound to above normal levels Monday through the middle of the week, but could fall below normal by Wednesday if the front ends up faster.

Marine
Winds will continue subsiding this evening.

However, residual SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level gusts still being observed on some of the eastern non-ocean waters so extended SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Eastern Long Island Sound (east of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY) as well as the Peconic and Gardiners Bays until 9pm this evening. The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound (west of New Haven CT/ Port Jefferson NY) as well as the South Shore Bays was allowed to expire at 7pm.

Conditions on the ocean should fall below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late this evening, so SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect for these marine zones until 10pm.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions then expected late tonight through the first half of Friday night. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return to the waters around midnight Friday night as winds and seas increase ahead of the next frontal system.

SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely on Saturday with potential of gales in the afternoon and early evening. Have continued to mention this potential in the HWO and have held off on a watch for now based on collaboration with neighboring WFOs. Any gales weaken back to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts behind a strong cold front passage Saturday evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue on the ocean for all of Saturday night with lingering gusts and elevated seas, but should be below on the Sound, Harbor, and Bays. 5 ft seas may linger on the waters east of Moriches Inlet early Sunday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. Marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible on the ocean on Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 9pm EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-340. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.