South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Snow. |
| Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 331am EST Wednesday Dec 24 2025 Synopsis Low pressure departs as a surface high builds from the west today into tonight. Weak low pressure will pass to the southwest while a weak cold front moves through on Christmas Day, with high pressure briefly returning at night. Another low will pass to the south from Friday into Saturday, followed by another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then returns for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Near Term - Through Tonight Key Messages: * Black ice possible early today as temperatures remain near or just below freezing and and dewpoints remain fairly high. * A dry, breezy day in store with near seasonable temperatures. Surface high pressure begins to build into the area behind a departing low pressure off the New England coast. Wet roads from yesterday's precipitation are still lingering on area roads, and with temperatures around freezing black ice is likely early this morning especially across the interior. An SPS may be needed for this area closer to daybreak if temperatures drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s. Otherwise, a drier airmass will overspread the area today, with a pressure gradient intact and northwest winds gusting at times close to or just over 30mph. Clouds will be on the decrease as the high builds over the region, and winds will slacken this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. For tonight, winds shift southerly as the high moves offshore. Clouds will be on the increase once again as a weak upper disturbance approaches. Low temperatures tonight will be near normal, in the upper 20s to low 30s. Short Term - Thursday and Thursday Night Christmas Day looks mainly dry, with a mid level wave/surface trough quickly moving through the region. Have maintained a slight chance for a brief late morning rain/snow shower across Long Island, NYC, and areas north and east. No accumulation expected. Highs will once again be in the lower 40s. Winds shift from SW to NW in the afternoon with the cold frontal passage. with the main push of colder air coming at night. Low temps Thu night will range from the lower 20s in the NYC metro area and surrounding suburbs, to the teens elsewhere. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday What's Changed: There have been no significant changes to the forecast. Confidence continues to increase in a period of accumulating snowfall from Friday afternoon into Saturday. Key Points: * An accumulating, plowable snowfall is becoming more likely Friday afternoon into Saturday. Winter weather headlines may be needed later today or tonight for portions of the area. * Chances for light snow or a wintry mix changing to rain Sunday into early Monday. There has not been much change in the forecast thinking this update. A series of disturbances will impact the region, resulting in a period of unsettled weather in the long term. Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to highlight weak upper ridging over the Northeast with a shortwave quickly passing through late Friday into Saturday. Brief upper ridging then builds in Sunday before a stronger closed low approaches the northeast into early next week. At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty on the storm track with this system, as the guidance continues to shift north and south from cycle to cycle. The ultimate track will determine both precipitation types (rain/snow) and accumulations, though an all snow event is looking more probable for the entire CWA. Given the model consensus has the local area on the north side of the system, with cold air already in place via the departing surface high, thermal profiles are suggestive of a period of decent snow growth from late Friday into early Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing appears from NYC on south by 06Z Saturday, though this feature continues to wiggle with the surface low track. One noticeable difference with the latest guidance is that ensemble based model Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (WPC WSE in particular) has trended down bit more with the 00Z guidance suite, with now a widespread 0.25 to 0.6" across the area, with highest amounts from NYC on west and south There does appear to be a moisture connection to the system currently heading toward the West Coast, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 0.5" - 1.0" inbound by late Friday. All said, this should translate into at least an advisory level snowfall of 2-5" for much of the CWA (County Warning Area) Friday into Saturday, with a chance, though lowered as of this update, of warning criteria snow (6+") especially north and west of NYC. This would occur where any banding can set up for a period of time. Have elected to hold off on any winter weather watches at this time given the 00Z model trends and decreasing WPC WSO that now depicts a 10-30% of exceeding 6" across NENJ, SW CT and the LoHud Valley. Depending on trends as we get closer, winter weather watches, or advisories may be needed for these areas. Thereafter, low pressure with a cold front quickly approaches on Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track northwest, well inland of the region, with the precipitation being mainly a snow/rain/ice mix, particularly for LoHud and interior S CT Saturday evening. The winter precipitation will then go over to all rain for a time Sunday. Dry weather looks to then return late Monday after the frontal passage. Marine SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect through 11Z for the ocean waters, with W flow gusting to 30 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft early this morning. Gale warning then goes into effect, with NW flow gusting to 35 kt, and seas peaking at 5-8 ft. On the non ocean waters, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) also remains in effect, running through this evening,for NW winds gusting to 30 kt. Conditions quickly subside late this afternoon as high pressure builds from the west. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond should return to the ocean waters after a cold frontal passage Thu afternoon and continue into Thu night, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. The non ocean waters lay also see gusts to 25-30 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening. Some 5-ft seas may linger on the outer ocean waters Fri morning. Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and continuing into Sat. Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high pressure briefly builds in. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Increasing E flow Fri night into Sat will lead to higher total water levels during that time. Moon phase will be at first quarter so astronomical tides will not be as great a contributor as with a full/new moon, and raw model guidance at that time range falls well short of flood thresholds. Adding an additional 1/2 ft to account for model tendency to play catch-up at longer lead times results in water levels getting close to but still remaining below minor flood thresholds with the high tide cycles late Fri night and Sat afternoon. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EST early this morning for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355. |
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