South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Around 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 859am EST Thu Nov 14 2019 Synopsis High pressure will pass east today as a weak warm front passes to the north. A cold front will move through Friday night, and high pressure will build in for the weekend. An offshore storm will pass to the south and east Sunday night into Monday. Another offshore storm may potentially impact the area during the middle of next week. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening Minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dewpoints to better match observed trends. Mainly high and mid level clouds overspreading the area today. A weak inverted trough developing between one lobe of the surface high moving offshore and another remaining over the Mid Atlantic region, along with a developing S flow, along with an approaching mid level vort max embedded in the flow aloft, should aid in development of bkn stratocu mainly across Long Island and southern CT this morning into this afternoon. A few light rain showers will be possible for eastern portions of the region, and up north where wet bulb temperatures will be closer to freezing such as Northern New London CT, light snow showers will be possible. After a cold start with temps in the teens and 20s, the onshore flow should bring quick moderation, with highs today in the 40s, still about 5-10 degrees below normal. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Friday Should still see mostly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles across eastern Long Island/CT this evening as the trough slowly drifts eastward, with winds shifting W and skies becoming mostly clear in its wake. Lows should range from the mid 20s inland to the 30s along the coast. A weakening cold front will approach on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and downslope W flow ahead of the front, temps should moderate further, with highs reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s, only slightly below avg. Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday The long term period starts off rather quiet, with cold front approaching and moving through dry Friday night with little in the way of moisture to work with. Canadian high pressure builds in for the weekend, moving in from the Great Lakes region on Saturday, then into New England Saturday night into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop along the southern branch of the jet stream, off the Southeast coast. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and GFS are in fairly good agreement with the track of the low, taking it south and east of Long Island Sunday night into Monday morning, with just part or all of the area being on the northern fringes of the system. There are timing differences between the two, with the GFS being the typically more progressive solution. The Canadian is an outlier, with a typically too strong coastal low solution. It may be cold enough for some snow inland, either all snow or rain/snow mixture. However, chances for precipitation are lower for this area, since it will be farther from the low. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with track and strength of this low, so cut POPs off at chance Sunday night into Monday. Thereafter, a large amplitude trough digs as far south as Florida, with disturbances moving up along the west side, along a frontal boundary well off shore. The ECMWF develops a fairly significant coastal low Tuesday night into Wednesday night, however, it is the only model to do so, therefore, limited POPs to slight chance for this time frame. As for temperatures, they will average below normal for the long term period, with Canadian high pressure for Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 30s to around 40 are expected on Saturday, and upper 30s to middle 40s for Sunday. Slow warming continues into the week, but should still be seasonably cool at best. Marine Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through Friday. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected across all waters by Friday night as the pressure gradient increases due to incoming high and approaching low pressure from the south. Gusts of at least 25 kt are possible. Gales are possible across the ocean waters Saturday morning as these areas will be closer to the low. Gusts up to 25 kt remain possible for most waters Saturday night through Sunday, except perhaps the the western sound and NY Harbor. Seas increase Friday night, with 5-6 ft possible for the ocean waters by late Friday night into Saturday morning. Seas should continue to build up to 9 ft on the ocean into Sunday morning, with 10-14 ft possible by Sunday night. Seas of 4-8 ft also possible then for far eastern Long Island Sound and western Block Island Sound. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period. Tides / Coastal Flooding An offshore storm has potential to produce minor coastal flooding beginning on the Long Island south shore back bays and on the western Sound this weekend. Departures of 1.5 to 2 ft are forecast by that time. Equipment NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. |
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