Marine Weather Net

South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast




15 - 20


10 - 15


10 - 15

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ345 Forecast Issued: 808 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Tonight...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog Early This Evening, Then Patchy Fog After Midnight. Light Rain Early This Evening, Then Rain Likely After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early This Evening.
Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Rain, Mainly In The Morning.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Thu...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Chance Of Showers.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
821pm EDT Monday September 25 2023

The remnant low of Ophelia, located south of Long Island late this afternoon, will drift south through Tuesday night as strong high pressure builds from southeastern Canada. The high will extend into the mid Atlantic region and be in control from Wednesday into early Thursday. An inverted trough will move northward along the coast late Thursday through Friday and drift offshore on Saturday as high pressure builds back in from the north. The high will then remain into Monday.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
Rain bands (with likely/cat PoP) mainly across S CT and central/eastern Long Island continue and should gradually drift SE tonight. With the rain light, with only a few hundredths of an inch occurring, have converted to light rain. Probability of Precipitation lowers to chancy throughout later tonight as residual low level moisture remains along with weak mid level forcing moving across from the west.

Temps had cooled to 55-60 across the CWA (County Warning Area) late this afternoon, and lows tonight won't be much different, with lower 50s inland and mid/upper 50s coastal/metro areas, while gusty NE winds continue along the coast.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through Tuesday Night
For Tuesday the last of the shower activity should be dropping southward through the area, still likely passing to the south of NYC metro and Long Island in the early afternoon. Breaks in the overcast may develop inland in the afternoon, especially over S CT, and slowly work their way southward Tuesday night, with skies becoming mostly clear by late night in the lower Hudson Valley and S CT, and partly cloudy elsewhere. Temps should reach the lower 60s throughout Tuesday afternoon, and with cooler air moving in as high pressure builds, temps late Tuesday night should bottom out anywhere from the lower 50s in/around NYC, to the 40s elsewhere, and maybe some upper 30s in some interior valley spots.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
Surface high pressure centered over southeastern Canada noses down along the eastern slope of the Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday, more typical of a fall/winter pattern. Meanwhile weak upper ridging resides across southeastern Canada with a cutoff low meandering across the upper midwest as the flow is weak. Slightly below normal temperatures remain Wednesday into Thursday.

The upper pattern becomes more progressive later Thursday into Saturday as an amplifying trough moves into the west coast and a ridge builds through the central United States.There is some guidance uncertainty with a low/inverted trough moving northward into the eastern ridge Thursday and Friday, and followed the NBM. Also with the surface high retreating warmer air returns to the area with temperatures near to slightly above normal Friday into the beginning of next week. With the central US ridge moving east the low/trough along the coast moves into the western Atlantic Friday night into Saturday with dry weather returning as the high to the north becomes reestablished.

Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will continue through Monday night and into much of the day Tuesday as the remnant low of Ophelia moves and remains to the south of the as high pressure gradually builds south out of eastern Canada. Winds have diminished across the central and eastern sound waters, therefore the Gale Warning was converted to a Small Craft Advisory through 6 pm Tuesday for these locations. Gale warning continues on the ocean waters into daytime Tue, with gusts 35-40 kt.

By Tuesday afternoon the strongest gusts will diminish, but a strong easterly flow should still continue across the forecast waters Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds from the north. The flow becomes more northeasterly Friday into Saturday as an inverted trough moves up along the coast. Ocean seas will remain elevated at SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Wednesday through at least Saturday night. Ocean gusts may also reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Friday night and Saturday with an increased pressure gradient.

Additional rainfall of up to 1/2 inch is likely late this afternoon into tonight across parts of S CT and eastern Long Island. Hydrologic concerns unlikely.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Persistent E-NE flow this week an an approaching full moon will result in increasing astronomical levels and extra surge, thereby resulting in multiple rounds of coastal flooding this week. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected although some localized moderate coastal flooding is expected in the Peconic Bay near Riverhead.

Around 1.5 to 2 ft of surge is needed for minor coastal flooding across the Lower NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and Eastern Bays of Long Island as well as the SW CT and Southern Westchester NY shoreline of Western Long Island Sound. These locations have coastal flood advisories in effect from late this afternoon into this evening and are expected to have multiple locations experience minor coastal flooding with particularly Peconic Bay in Riverhead getting some localized moderate coastal flooding. For Upper NY Harbor, rest of Long Island and NYC shorelines along Long Island Sound as well as Southern New Haven CT, there are coastal flood statements in effect for late this afternoon into this evening. The coastal flood statements cover where minor coastal flooding will be more localized or isolated.

A high risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday at the ocean beaches with an easterly swell. A high rip current hazard remains in effect through Tuesday evening and will not be extended into Wednesday as this afternoon's Surf Zone Forecast (SRFOKX) is the last issuance for the 2023 beach season. The Surf Zone Forecast will resume for the 2024 beach season Thursday afternoon, May 23, 2024.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for CTZ009. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm to 8pm EDT Tuesday for NYZ074-075. High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for NYZ080- 178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2pm Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for NYZ080-178-179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4pm to 8pm EDT Tuesday for NJZ006-106-108.

Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Gale Warning until 6pm EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.