South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Light And Variable. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 209pm EDT Tuesday August 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... What remains of the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be allowed to expire at 18Z. Guidance has been trending further west for showers and storms during the daytime tomorrow. .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High rip current risk for today. 2. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend. 3. Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend. .KEY MESSAGE 1...High rip current risk for today. No major changes with the rip current risk with this update. Conditions should gradually improve as the surf height decreases, but at least a moderate risk is likely to continue through the day tomorrow. At least a moderate risk is likely for Wednesday as SSE swells continue to subside to 3-4 ft, but may remain high at the eastern Suffolk beaches with the higher swells out east and ebb tide from late morning into early afternoon. A high risk may also be possible late day Thu at the NYC, Nassau, and western Suffolk beaches as SSW flow increases to near 20 kt with wind waves building to 4 ft. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend. Scattered afternoon shower/thunderstorm threat returns on Wednesday and continues through the weekend as region lies on NW edge of Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and very humid air mass into the region Thu thru the weekend with deep SW flow and H8 temps rising to 18-20C. Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vort maximum rounding the upper ridge Wednesday and Thu, and then approaching weak northern stream shortwave troughs Fri into the weekend. Latest guidance depicts the low level convergence mostly west of the city. Additionally, not expecting any significant moisture advection (aside from the thin layer near the surface due to the sea breeze) until after sunset Wednesday. Thus, during the day time, expect most of the shower and storm activity to stay southwest of the region. It could start to expand eastward after 00Z (getting into the evening hours). As the moisture builds particularly from Thursday onward, this will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm motions are expected to be moderate through this period (20 to 30 kts), so it may come down to if there will be any training of storms or if brief, heavy downpours occur over the most flood vulnerable locations. All that being said, the marginal (1 out of 4) excessive rain outlook for Thursday and Friday seems reasonable at this point. For the severe threat, that will be dependent on the exact timing of the short wave troughs, which at this point is uncertain. As we get closer, should have a better idea on the periods where this may be more of a concern. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend. Temps should rise to at least to the upper 80s to around 90 for NE NJ/NYC metro and the interior, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, from Thu through Mon. GFS (Global Forecast System) MOS guidance shows lower dewpoints but higher temperatures compared to NBM. Both bring heat index values to 95-100 on Thu, 95-104 Fri, and continuing above 95 in urban/coastal areas and across the interior river valleys from Sat-Mon. If this trend continues, a heat advisory may be needed. Marine Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the evening on Thu. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. |
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