South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Slight Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Rain And Slight Chance Of Snow After Midnight With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely In The Morning. Snow Likely. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Snow In The Evening. Vsby Less Than 1 Nm In The Evening. |
| Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205am EST Sat Jan 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is increasing in light snowfall accumulation on Sunday for eastern Long Island and CT. There is more uncertainty with locations farther west. .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) A Winter Weather Advisory remains in affect until 4pm today for western Passaic, Orange and Putnam Counties. Forecast snow totals in these areas are between 2 and 4 inches. Other ares in the Lower Hudson Valley, western CT and northeast NJ will likely see between 1 and 2 inches. Elsewhere less than half an inch is expected. 2.) A coastal low will likely bring more light snow accumulation to the area on Sunday. The highest confidence in snow continues to be for the eastern half of the area, with more uncertainty for western locations. Latest forecast has 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island with an inch or lower for other locations. 3.) Cold weather is expected Monday through Friday with the coldest period Monday night through Tuesday night, with sub freezing highs Tuesday. No record cold expected through the period. .KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure is moving through the Great Lakes and warm advection is underway in our area. The first batch of snow is currently just west of the area and should move into the Lower Hudson Valley shortly. This seems to be associated with the aforementioned warm advection and an upper level shortwave. Later today, another area of precipitation approaches from the west. This looks to be associated more with a cold front. This front does not appear to be too strong, but there is enough moisture and lift to bring an additional couple of tenths of liquid to the area. Anything that falls today north and west of NYC will likely fall as all snow. Other areas could see brief snow before a changeover to a mix or all plain rain. With temperatures already running warmer than forecast, there is low confidence in any snow accumulation for NYC, western LI and coastal CT. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A shortwave embedded in the larger upper level trough over the eastern US will lift towards the area on Sunday. This will aid in surface low pressure development near the southeast US coast. Track variability continues to lessen with the latest 00z guidance. Confidence is increasing in a light snowfall accumulation for eastern LI and CT, but uncertainty remains farther west. AI guidance and some deterministic guidance seems to be trying to meet in the middle the last few runs. Last few runs of the AIGFS (Global Forecast System) and EC-AIFS have trended just slightly farther southeast with the low center and lower with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Latest deterministic GFS and NAM have trended slightly closer to the coast. Confidence is high enough at this time to forecast 1 to 3 inches for southern CT and Long Island and an inch or lower elsewhere. However, there is some concern now with surface temperatures and how well snow will actually be able to accumulate in some of those eastern areas. This trend will have to be monitored, but for now have kept forecast at likely snow with chance/slight chance rain. It could be a situation where snow has a hard time sticking at first with light intensity. Lift in the DGZ looks to be stronger Sunday afternoon which would help increase snowfall intensity. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with, temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as Canadian cold air moves into the region behind a cold frontal passage Monday night. Temperatures during this period will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Despite the anomalously cold air no records are expected to be set. And with windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, wind chill values will remain higher than cold weather advisory criteria. For Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees below normal. Another shot of cold air moves in for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures both days remaining right around or below the freezing mark. There will be minimal chances of light snow and/or light rain Thursday into Friday as weak low pressure systems pass near the region. Marine A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters due to elevated seas. Late tonight the Advisory comes down for the western ocean zone but it has been extended for the central and eastern ocean zones through Sunday. There will only be a brief lull Sunday night before seas and winds start to increase on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected much of next week for the ocean waters and Monday and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for NYZ067-068. NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for NJZ002. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for ANZ355. |
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