Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Chance Of Showers. Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. Areas Of Smoke. |
| Thu...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Smoke In The Morning, Then Areas Of Smoke In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Areas Of Smoke. |
| Fri...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Patchy Smoke In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1037am EDT Wednesday July 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Smoke extended in forecast thru Thursday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot conditions expected today with heat indices near 100F in many areas. There remains a marginal severe thunderstorm threat late this afternoon into early this evening. Areas of wildfire smoke may also lead to hazy skies and reduced visibilities at times. 2) Unsettled conditions expected at times this weekend into early next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms. 3) High risk of rip currents at local ocean beaches today (see Marine discussion). .KEY MESSAGE 1... A few different features to the forecast for today. First, the heat for the week peaks this afternoon with the warmest spots approaching triple digits. Ridging in place stretching from the Upper Plains to the Northeast gets shunted locally by a shortwave trough passing to the north. This will push a surface cold front south through the area into the evening. Before that though, a mild, muggy morning to start with temperatures in the 70s and 80s across the local Tri State. Continued to side with slightly cooler guidance over the national blend given the persistent high bias seen with these events. Still, H850 temps forecast 22-23C and strong surface heating ahead of any potential haze/smoke should allow most areas to climb into the 90s this afternoon, with the hottest urban spots of NE NJ and NYC near 100F. Factor in the modest surface moisture and heat indices should approach or exceed 100F in most areas. Heat Advisory remains in place for the entire local forecast area until 9pm this evening. While temperatures Thursday remain warm, 80s to lower 90s for most, dew pts fall off further behind a frontal passage this evening, and conditions won't feel quite as oppressive. Second, the digging shortwave and approach of a cold front pose a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop later today. Storm Prediction Center maintained a conditional marginal risk (1/5) for much of the area with the exception of S/SE CT. Strong heating early in the day, dew pts in the 60s, and respectable shear aloft could allow for storms to become severe should initiation occur. CAMs are mixed with coverage of any potential activity, and highest chances appear to be along the coast and offshore. Opted to keep PoPs at slight chance (<25%) for now, though any thunderstorm that does form will have the potential to become severe and produce damaging winds and perhaps even large hail. Timing should it occur looks to be late afternoon into early evening. And third, Canadian wildfire smoke dispersing south and east from central Ontario may play a factor in the extent and intensity of the first two. HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) based plume modeling highlights late afternoon and this evening when concentrations may be highest locally today, though there remains uncertainty in the sensible impact the smoke may have. Hazy skies appear likely, and it's possible visibilities could be reduced at times late today. Surface heating may also be muted depending on timing, and a more stable environment could help stave off convection. Extended the areas of smoke in the forecast through Thursday with guidance indicating additional plumes settling over the region. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Conditions look to turn more unsettled into the weekend and early next week. Heigheights fall further this weekend as another shortwave swings south from a meandering upper low over eastern Canada. Guidance continues to offer a variety of solutions for the upper pattern, but the most active periods look to be Saturday with a frontal wave moving through, and then again next Tuesday. A relatively moist air mass in place should allow for the potential for heavy downpours, but it remains too early to narrow down details on any severe threat. Marine Small Craft Advisory remains in for the ocean waters east of Fire Island inlet until 2pm this afternoon. Seas here remain around or just above 5 ft, with gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas gradually lower through the day, and sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are then expected on all waters through Saturday. Rip Currents There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents today at all local ocean beaches. SW swells of 4-5 ft at 6 sec gradually subside through the day. The risk lowers to moderate for Thursday as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to Wednesday. Climate Record High Temperatures: July 15: KEWR: 104/1995 KBDR: 97/1995 KNYC: 102/1995 KLGA: 103/1995 KJFK: 99/1983 KISP: 97/1995 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 15: KEWR: 82/1995 KBDR: 76/2013 KNYC: 84/1995 KLGA: 83/1995 KJFK: 79/1995 KISP: 77/1995 NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT... Heat Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for CTZ005>010. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. Heat Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for CTZ011-012. NY... Heat Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-078- 176>179. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ079>081. High Risk for Rip Currents until 9pm EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ... Heat Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353. |
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