Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas Around 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tue...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 8 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1039am EDT Sunday September 23 2018
Synopsis: A cold front will slide south of Long Island as high pressure gradually builds in from the Great Lakes. This high will slide offshore on Monday. A frontal system will then affect the area Tuesday into Wednesday, ending with a cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure will returns for Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Canadian high pressure remains to the north of the region as multiple waves of energy ride along a stalled boundary to the south.
Chance probability of precipitation continue for some light rain or sprinkles mainly across NYC and western Long Island. Clouds will remain through the day keeping high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, a few degrees below seasonable.
A generally low risk of rip current is expected on Sunday with mainly 1 ft swells, with a 2 ft ESE wind wave
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday
Upper ridge will shift east through the evening. This will bring fair weather and a tricky temperature forecast. If clouds across the northern zones break, there is potential for radiational cooling as winds remain light under the influence of high pressure. Lows will drop into the 40s for the interior and into the 50s elsewhere.
Dry and unseasonably cool conditions are expected on Monday. Highs will struggle to make it out of the 60s with an easterly wind.
Clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front with showers developing overnight. Southerly low level jet will advect in PW of 1.5-2 inches and could aid in a period of moderate rain into early Tuesday
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
A warm front will then lift across the region on Tuesday. Showers will develop with the frontal passage on Monday night into Tuesday along with scattered convection. There might be a break in the precipitation overnight Tuesday as the warm front moves north of the region. A cold front will then follow Wednesday night. With plenty of moisture remaining across the area there is still a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The front should push offshore by Thursday with drier air moving across the area later on Thursday. Another fast moving system then moves towards the area Friday resulting in more showers. High pressure builds across the area on Saturday.
Temperatures start out below normal for this time of year then quickly bounce back to above normal for the middle of the week and remain above normal through Friday before dropping back to seasonable levels by Saturday.
Quiet through the weekend. E winds start to increase Sunday night, with Small Craft Advisory conds developing on the ocean and continuing for an extended time frame. There is still an outside chance at minimal gales from late day Monday into Monday night.
The non-ocean waters, in particular the bays and the eastern Sound, may also see wind gusts over 25 kt, but onset and duration there are less certain.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to continue on the ocean through Thu as a warm front moves north of the waters and a cold front approaches from the west. Seas drop below Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.
A frontal system could bring locally heavy showers/tstms Tuesday into Wed, first via warm fropa on Tue, then again via trailing cold fropa on Wed. Anticipate only localized nuisance impacts at this early point
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Minor coastal flooding possible during the times of high tide Monday night and Tuesday morning in response to a strengthening easterly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Surges of around 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 ft, and locally up to 2 1/4 ft, are needed for minor flooding
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am Monday to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.