Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Occasionally To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 7 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming Sw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Morning. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 639am EDT Thu September 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes made to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Gusty winds and chance to slight chance of showers into the morning. 2) Dry and pleasant Friday into the start of the weekend. 3) Wet weather increasingly likely Saturday night into a portion of Sunday. Impacts appear unlikely at this time. 4) High rip current risk with 4 to 6 ft surf expected today at ocean beaches. Minor beach flooding possible during the times of high tide this morning. .KEY MESSAGE 1... A pre-frontal trough traverses the area early today. There remains good run to run and model to model continuity with respect to weakening the line of showers and storms ahead of the front with the front losing some upper level support. Instability overall appears to be lacking. There is a notable LLJ of 40 to 45 kt depicted on the progs. This time around this is not expected to be a focus or forcing mechanism with respect to heavy rainfall unlike some past events. Instead this has enhanced wind gusts this morning. THe anticipated line of showers is about to move into the area at the time of writing this discussion. This is still anticipated to weaken as it moves further into the area. The best chances for precipitation will be the Lower Hudson Valley and S CT. Chances diminish into the morning. Some hit and miss sprinkles and showers will be around late this morning ahead of the front. Otherwise, expect a good amount of mid level clouds with much of the day being dry, especially from late morning through most of the afternoon. Another warm and humid day with temperatures mainly in the middle 80s and dew points in the 60s. .KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front is still expected to slowly push through tonight. Forecast guidance is split as to whether showers stay completely south of the area, or if showers get into at the least the southern half of the area. Continue to carry a stripe of chance to slight chance Probability of Precipitation through a good portion of the area, mainly further south. Otherwise, the front gets through completely Friday morning which will lead to decreasing cloud cover and plenty of sunshine into the remainder of Friday. Noticeably less humid with dew point readings back down into the lower half of the 50s. The dry conditions will carry through Friday night and into most of the day Saturday. There is some model uncertainty as to how quickly the next weather system can approach late Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, the consensus of the guidance keeps the region dry through Saturday afternoon. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A warm front across the Tennessee Valley to begin the weekend will begin to push towards the region late Saturday into Saturday night. An axis of higher PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and theta-e values is forecast to lift NE into the Mid Atlantic states. The Ensemble Situational Awareness Table (ESAT) via the NAEFS (GFS (Global Forecast System) and Canadian based) is not showing anomalously high values for humidity, IVT, or PWATs. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has slightly higher values than the NAEFS, but even the ECMWF has Standardized Anomaly values generally at 2 or less with the ECMWF being a bit further north with the moisture fields. Overall, it does appear that impacts appear unlikely at this time regarding heavy rainfall but does bear watching as WPC has portions of the region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Guidance does appear to progress the system east and offshore late Sunday into Sunday night with improving weather to begin next week. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Although winds will take on an increasing westerly component today, a residual S/SW wind swell of 5 to 7 ft will produce 4 to 6 ft breakers in the surf zone, highest for eastern LI beaches. The elevated surf, combined with high astronomical tides from today's new moon may result in minor ocean beach flooding during the times of high tide this AM, and perhaps this evening with higher tide but lower waves. Moderate rip current risk likely on Friday with residual 3 ft southerly wind swells, and 1 ft se swell. Along the mainland, water levels will approach but expected to fall short of minor flood thresholds during the times of high tide thru Friday evening with offshore flow. Better chance for some localized minor flooding along vulnerable southern bays, NY/NJ harbor, and W LIS shorelines with the Sat/Sunday Am high tides in response to onshore flow ahead of an approaching frontal system. Marine Small craft conditions prevail on all waters early this morning. Small craft conditions will end on the non-ocean waters by 8am this morning, and gradually subside from west to east on the ocean. The eastern ocean waters may see 5 ft seas linger into a portion of this evening. Ocean seas return to either side of 3 ft on Friday with sub advisory conditions prevailing and continuing through the weekend. Ocean seas will average closer to 2 ft with tranquil conditions Saturday. A southerly flow increases Sunday morning with seas getting closer to 3 and 4 ft on the ocean late in the weekend. Rip Currents See Key Message 4. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ355. |
New York Radar
Northeast Radar
East Coast Satellite