Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw This Morning, Then Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Rain With Isolated Tstms Early, Then Rain This Morning. Chance Of Rain Early This Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early.|
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 9 Ft.|
|Sun Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Sprinkles And Flurries In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Sprinkles And Flurries.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 535 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
Low pressure will deepen as it tracks along a frontal system moving across the waters this morning. The low continues to strengthen as it tracks across New England this afternoon through tonight, then the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Thereafter, a series of cold fronts will then move across the area through the middle of next week, each followed by weak high pressure.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
640am EST Sat Jan 16 2021
Low pressure will deepen as it tracks along a frontal system moving across the area this morning. The low continues to strengthen as it tracks across New England this afternoon through tonight, then the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Thereafter, a series of cold fronts will then move across the area through the middle of next week, each followed by weak high pressure.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Low pressure is beginning to strengthen rapidly early this morning along a warm front that lies just south of Long Island. The low is expected to track northward as a larger frontal system sweeps across the region this morning. ISP recently reported a 4 mb drop in pressure in one hour from 2 am to 3 am.
Deep subtropical moisture is being advected northward with widespread rain occurring across much of the region. The greatest likelihood of heavy rain is across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. This is also where a few lightning strikes are possible, which have been noted over the ocean in the convective heavy rain band. Total rain amounts will range from around one inch west around NYC metro on west and one to two inches further east, highest across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. There could be some wind gusts 35 to 40 mph across far eastern Long Island and coastal SE CT as the low deepens. Rain will diminish from 12-15z as the low lifts northward and the frontal system clears the region.
The upper level low will still be to our west into this afternoon. Energy flowing within the upper low will continue move overhead which will keep at least mostly cloudy skies for much of the day. There is a much lower probability of precipitation with a much drier middle and upper level atmosphere. Winds will be weakest late this morning and early afternoon as the low begins to lift north into New England. The pressure gradient steepens late in the day and westerly flow will follow suit and increase as well. Highs today will be in the middle and upper 40s.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night
The upper level low will move over New England tonight, with the deepening surface low lifting towards the Canadian Maritimes. The boundary layer will be well mixed tonight with the pressure gradient in place from the departing low. The highest winds will reside close to the coast. Dry conditions are expected tonight and skies should gradually become partly cloudy, especially the second half of the night. This is due to the middle and upper level flow becoming westerly with the upper low lifting towards the Canadian Maritimes. Lows will range from the upper 20s inland to the lower and middle 30s elsewhere.
Gusty W-SW winds are expected to continue on Sunday as the region will lie within the pressure gradient left behind the departing low and high pressure building across the southern portion of the country. Gusts could reach 30-35 mph, strongest near the coast. There may also be a subsidence inversion with moisture trapped beneath it around 5 kft, which could lead to SCT to BKN stratocu in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to middle 40s.
The pressure gradient relaxes Sunday night and winds should weaken. Another shortwave trough approaches with mostly cloudy skies. No precipitation is expected Sunday night. Lows will range from upper 20s inland to the lower 30s most elsewhere.
Long Term - Monday Through Friday
The northern branch of the polar jet will remain dominant across the NE quarter of the country through the upcoming week. This will largely result in dry, seasonably cold weather during this period.
A series of strong shortwave troughs are expected through the middle of next week, one early Monday, and another early Wednesday. While there is limited moisture available, a chance of flurries and/or a snow shower can not be ruled out on Monday and then again on Wednesday. The later shortwave will be followed by the coldest shot of air during the period with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing on Wednesday. Global models are at odds with the magnitude of this features and the associated cold air. Taking a middle road approach will still keep high in the 30s. This coupled with another day of gusty winds will keep wind chill values in the 20s.
Another northern branch shortwave will send low pressure pressure tracking north of the Great Lakes on Thursday,sending a warm front through the region. There may be a frontal wave near the near the coast, passing near the benchmark. This scenario raises the potential for some wintry weather, but many of the global models are progressive with this system and don't form a significant coastal low. For the time, chances of precipitation will remain low. A large area of high pressure then builds in for the end of the period.
Low pressure is developing over the waters early this morning. The strongest winds will be across eastern waters where gales are expected through the next several hours. Have extended the gale warning through 10 am. Elsewhere, winds are beginning to weaken and should largely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels this morning. Winds will then pick up in the afternoon with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds returning to the ocean late in the day, then occurring on all waters tonight into Sunday. There is a chance at gales on Sunday on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, but for now have gone with a SCA. Winds on all waters will weaken Sunday night except east of Moriches Inlet where SCA (Small Craft Advisory) gusts may continue. Ocean seas will remain elevated through Sunday and then slowly subside Sunday night.
A prolonged period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is expected on most waters from early next week as a series of cold fronts move through the waters, followed by gusty west winds.
Storm total rainfall amounts of about 1 to 2 inches forecast with the ongoing event. The highest amounts will occur across Long Island and southern Connecticut. Flash flooding is not anticipated due to the relatively fast motion of the storm and antecedent dry conditions. Minor urban street and poor drainage flooding however will still be possible.
No significant precipitation is expected thereafter.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A few sites will reach their minor coastal flood benchmarks in the South Shore Bays, Lower NY Harbor, and parts of southern Westchester NY and coastal Fairfield CT morning during their respective high tide cycles this morning/early afternoon. Coastal flooding does not look widespread and have gone with a statement.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10am EST this morning for ANZ330-340-350. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for ANZ353-355.