Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers Likely This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Rain After Midnight.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
634am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
Light to moderate rain expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Windy conditions tonight then relax by daybreak as a high pressure system build into the region. Next low pressure system brings moderate rain Saturday evening and all day Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Forecast on track this morning.
Shortwave trough extending south through the Ohio River Valley pivots across New York State today. This trough brings with it significant PVA and dynamically driven lift through the region which will act as the main lifting mechanism for precipitation this afternoon. Temperatures in the afternoon will be relatively mild reaching the mid 50s before the expected rain. Precipitable water values prior to the cold front are around 0.60-0.90 inches which is slightly more than the 75% moving average according to the Storm Prediction Center sounding climatology. Meaning there is a fair amount of ambient moisture to generate light to moderate rainfall. Rainfall totals range from 0.10-0.25 inches with the larger amounts expected east of the NYC Metro. Model soundings show little to no CAPE over the area so as a result instances of lightning are not likely at this time.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night
The cold front pushes through the forecast area by the early evening producing breezy conditions and dropping dewpoints into the low 20s with overnight low temperatures falling into the low 30s and upper 20s. The high pressure system and associated cold airmass shifts overhead as a mid-level ridge builds from the west. A chilly Saturday is still expected despite the clear skies with temperatures only reaching the mid 40s by the afternoon.
Towards the evening and overnight hours on Saturday a shortwave trough and deepening low pressure system near the Appalachian Mountains will have to be monitored for the next batch of impactful weather. Initially as the system nears the Lower Hudson Valley, precipitation falling through the residual cold airmass may be able to refreeze prior to reaching the surface. This is most likely in the northwest portion of Orange county late Saturday night into early Sunday morning with little to no accumulation of freezing rain or sleet expected. A steady cold rain is expected for the rest of the forecast area through the day. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 1 inch will allow for ample rainfall Sunday. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals between 1.00-1.50 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible. This could lead to nuisance street flooding and ponding of water in poor drainage areas.
The aforementioned low pressure system exits to the northeast by the late evening allowing a stable dry airmass to enter the forecast area overnight.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
Weak surface ridging builds in from high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Monday, then pushes offshore on Tuesday.
A frontal system approaches for the middle of the week, lifting a warm front north of the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The associated cold front quickly moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night as the associated low passes well north and east of the area, tracking over the eastern Great Lakes region then into southeastern Canada. Temperatures will be warm enough at this point for all rain everywhere.
SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front continues to increase on the waters this morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will develop through the morning. The cold front moves across the waters in the afternoon with winds becoming W-NW and should be well east by early evening. Gale force winds are likely in the afternoon and evening on the waters east of Fire Island Inlet, Eastern LI Bays, and Eastern LI Sound. An occasional gale gust cannot be ruled out west of Fire Island Inlet. Gale warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Ocean seas will also build to 5 to 8 ft, highest east of Moriches Inlet. Winds slowly decrease overnight from west to east as high pressure builds to the south and west. Winds should be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels early Saturday morning. Seas also subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels through tonight.
Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will occur on Saturday with high pressure near the waters. These conditions should continue into Saturday night with intensifying low pressure approaching the waters. The low moves across the waters Sunday morning and early afternoon and then quickly north and east away from the New England coast Sunday evening. Winds and seas should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels in the morning, but increasing NW winds on the backside of the low should bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds on all waters with potential for gale gusts on the ocean. Seas will also build in the afternoon as the low passes east. Elevated seas are then possible due to lingering swell into Monday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely with high pressure over the waters.
No hydrological concerns are expected through Saturday. Liquid equivalent amounts of 1.00"-1.50" are forecast from late Saturday into late Sunday as an area of low pressure impacts the region. There is some uncertainty with the amounts depending on the track and intensity of the low.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Astronomical tides will be increasing late this weekend due to a new moon early next week. An intensifying, fast moving low pressure system will also move across the region on Saturday night into Sunday. The quick movement of the system should prevent significant coastal impacts. However, minor coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning high tide across the south shore back bays and Sunday afternoon high tide across the Western Sound.
Minor flooding benchmarks may be reached early next due to the new moon.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST Saturday for ANZ335-338- 345-355. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ330-340-350-353.