Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
544am EDT Wednesday September 28 2022
A cold front moves through late today into tonight. Canadian high pressure builds in for Thursday, remaining over the region Thursday night into Friday. High pressure weakens and gives way to an approaching area of low pressure with remains of Ian and its tropical moisture as well as its associated frontal system Saturday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts regarding Ian. The low and system will continue moving slowly northward for the remainder of the weekend. The low and system eventually slides farther east early next week. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will be in Southeast Canada and into Northern New England for the latter half of the weekend and early next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Only minor adjustments made inNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
lign with current observations and trends. Forecast remains on track.
An upper trough aloft slowly deamplifies over the region through the middle of the week as broad ridging builds to our west. At the surface, a cold front moves through the region late this afternoon and into the evening. While the front likely passes through dry, winds veer NW behind it.
With cool air aloft in the trough and cyclonic flow, expecting some diurnal stratocu once again this afternoon atop a well- mixed BL. Temperatures top out similar to Tuesday, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Can't rule out a spotty sprinkle during the afternoon, especially inland across the lower Hudson Valley, though a relatively dry column likely precludes this for most.
Temperatures overnight will be similar to prior nights, with lows generally ranging from the mid 40s inland, to the mid 50s for the urban metro. Generally stuck to national blended guidance for this update, though included MAV/MET data for overnight lows.
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
Behind the frontal passage, sprawling high pressure advances east from the Great Lakes. Surface winds turn northerly in response, then northeasterly by Thursday night. The upper level trough remains more or less in place through Thursday night, though deamplifying during this time.
Dry conditions are expected to persist through this late week period with the nearby high pressure. As Ian moves inland over the Southeast US, expect an increase in higher level clouds Friday with the moistening column. The tightening pressure gradient between the high and Ian should result in a gradually increasing onshore flow late Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be near climatological norms for the end of September, if not a couple of degrees below it with the northerly flow, highs generally in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will be on the cool side, with lighter winds aiding efficient radiative cooling in typical locations. Went with the lower MAV/MET guidance to account for this.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
High pressure weakens across the region Saturday and shifts farther away, allowing for a warm front to approach from the south. This front will be part of a complex low pressure system that will also have leftover tropical moisture from Ian as well as the low center of Ian itself with its extratropical transition. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts regarding Ian.
The consensus of numerical weather prediction model guidance has a slow northward approach of this warm front but staying south of Long Island for the weekend. Then the consensus of model guidance shifts the front farther east for early next week with a weakened low potentially passing by south of Long Island. The entire system shifts farther east with this low towards the middle of next week.
With the synoptic setup, continued easterly flow will eventually moisten the boundary layer and allow for chances of rain as the front approaches this weekend. The front is forecast to be not too far south of Long Island and another approaching weak low will allow for chances of rain to continue Monday into Tuesday of next week. The pressure gradient between the low and a strong high moving into Southeast Canada and into Northern New England into early next week will result in an increase in easterly flow with gusts developing as well. Chances of rain lower towards the middle of next week as the system shifts farther east and farther away from the local area.
Prolonged chances of rain are in the forecast and this along with the easterly flow will make for cooler than normal temperatures this weekend into early next week. There is still uncertainty with the forecast so exact timing of rainfall and total amount, especially with start and end times of rain will probably change with subsequent forecasts.
Winds remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria today. While portions of the central and eastern ocean zones, mainly west of Fire Island Inlet, flirt with 5 ft seas today, coverage and duration do not warrant an SCA at this time. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of a short-fused SCA (Small Craft Advisory) later today.
High pressure remains over the area through the end of the week with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected across the forecast waters through Friday.
With the increased easterly flow forecast this weekend will come increased easterly fetch. Seas on the ocean are forecast to reach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will become more probable on the waters especially for the second half of the weekend and into early next week.
No hydrologic impacts expected through the Friday.
With long duration rainfall this weekend into early next week, no hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time as models forecast of the heaviest rain and tropical moisture expected to stay south of the region. However, there is uncertainty with the forecast with the position of the heaviest rain and tropical moisture, so the total rainfall forecast is still of low confidence for this weekend and into early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
A moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches is in place through Thursday for residual 3 ft@8 sec period SE swells.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.