Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
617pm EDT Thu August 6 2020
A series of frontal waves will track along a stationary front just south of the area from late tonight through early Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area for Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday, slowly tracking across the region through Thursday.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Clouds were on the increase this evening as a frontal wave along a stalled front to the south approaches from the SW late tonight. For the most part, current thinking is that most of the night will be dry with showers moving in well after midnight. Differences still remain amongst the global models and CAMs, even significant differences within these camps. What does seem clear is the best chances for rainfall will be from the NYC metro east across LI. In fact, there is likely be a tight gradient in rainfall from south to north across the area due to the proximity of the frontal wave. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has relatively little rain across the area, while the NAM, GGEM, and GFS are much more aggressive. Thus, a middle road approach was taken at this time and the forecast will have to be refined as convection upstream develops overnight.
Lows overnight will be in the lower 60s inland to around 70 across the NYC metro. These readings are close to normal.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
There is potential for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, mainly across NYC and LI, with activity decreasing in the late morning with the passage of the frontal wave. PW values (Precipitable Water values) will be around 2 inches and soundings show tall, skinny CAPES, indicative of heavy rainfall. There is though a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether the axis remains offshore or does it make into NYC and LI. Thereafter, showers will remain scattered through Friday night as an upper trough approaches the region. There may be enough instability for some isolated thunderstorms as well.
The cloud cover, convection, and easterly flow will keep temperatures in check tomorrow with highs in mid to upper 70s. This is about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Lows Friday night will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, a tad warmer than the previous night.
There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Friday.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
The forecast trends through the extended period remain in good agreement with previous forecasts and maintain continuity with the overall synoptic pattern. In the beginning of the forecast, Saturday, there are minor timing differences with the shortwave exiting during the day. And currently the trend is toward a quicker departure to the east. However, to maintain some continuity have maintained slight chance probabilities through the day, and into the evening across the northern tier with some destabilization expected, along with low level convergence.
Upper ridging builds behind the shortwave Saturday night into the beginning of next week. A weak and low amplitude shortwave passes mainly to the north Sunday, however, there is little moisture or forcing in the area and the surface reflection comes through dry. A large trough and closed low will be moving into the northern tier of the plains, and this low will track slowly east into the mid week period. This will bring a cold front very slowly across the area Tuesday into Thursday as the ridge only gradually weakens. Heat and humidity will be building early to mid week as the ridge builds. Temperatures will be well above normal through the period, around 5 to 10 degrees. Cloud cover and the chance for precipitation, scattered thunderstorms, will affect both heat and humidity, and at this time there is the potential for heat indices to be in the lower to mid 90s Monday through Wednesday across the northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and New York City.
Winds and seas will stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels thru Tue. There is a chance that sw flow reaches SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on the ocean Monday night and Tue.
There is the potential for heavy downpours in the morning across the NYC metro and LI. Minor nuisance flooding is possible along with localized flash flooding. Confidence of this occurring is low.
KBDR ASOS is not reporting at this time due to a power outage.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.