Marine Weather Net

Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ353 Forecast Issued: 1251 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Afternoon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw Around 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.
Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232pm EDT Sat May 21 2022

Synopsis
A cold front over the Great Lakes will work slowly south and east through the weekend, passing through the area Sunday evening. High pressure north of the area will be in control early in the week, before sliding off the New England coast mid week. A frontal system approaches the area late next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Minor adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to account for latest obs/trends. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

A high amplitude ridge along the eastern seaboard with heigheights around 2SD above normal will send warm air up into the region along the western flank of the ridge. 85H temperatures will approach 20C, but due to a healthy inversion across coastal locations, the warmest temperatures will be away from the water and primarily north and west of NYC. That being the case, it will still be anomalously warm just miles inland from the water. Highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 80s just inland and into the lower and middle 90s across NW portions of NYC, NJ, the Lower Hudson valley and interior southern CT. This is 15 to 20 degrees above normal. This combined with dew points in the the 60s will produce heat index values of 95 to 100 for this same area. Thus, heat advisories remain in place (extended into Sunday for all by NYC). Coastal locations will be cooler with a values generally in the 80s but the north shore of western LI will be in the lower 90s as will be the case several miles inland from the CT coast.

Skies will clear with sunny skies. There could be some floating low clouds along the coast which will have to be watched, especially eastern locations and around sunset. Winds will be SW to S, increasing to 10 to 15 mph by afternoon.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Monday
The heat will linger into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front, but a few degrees cooler as the upper ridge axis slides east with gradual height falls into Sunday. Due to the cool spring and heat indices around 95, have extended the heat advisory for all but NYC. The latter of which will be close but only across NW portions of the city (Bronx and northern Manhattan). This will be evaluated later today with newer guidance.

Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s eastern LI and the CT coast, to the lower 70s inland. Highs will generally be slightly cooler on Sunday (with a few exceptions) ranging from the lower 80s across eastern LI (but a cooler along the immediate south shore and forks) and the CT coast, to around 90 across NW portions of NYC, NJ, the Lower Hudson valley and interior southern CT.

Scattered convection will then develop late Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front and pre-frontal trough move through the region. This looks to be a high CAPE, weak shear environment with an isolated severe weather threat (large hail and winds). Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk of severe weather across NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior SW CT.

Drier and more seasonable conditions will be on tap for Monday in a northerly flow with highs in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure over the Great Lakes builds east.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
Minimal changes made with the past couple of global cycles and continued to follow the NBM closely. It may very will be dry through the middle of next week. Start to introduce shower chance towards Tuesday night into Wednesday with only slight chance, with chance POPs towards Wednesday night as there are some indications the ridge may get compromised a bit with onshore flow and low level moisture off the ocean. It could very well stay completely dry through Wednesday night.

By Thursday the upper level trough begins to draw closer off to our west. Global models are hinting at a stronger surface low moving through the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through the area towards Friday. However, typical timing and strength uncertainties exist this far out, with some differences noted amongst the models. For now have chance Probability of Precipitation with showers on Thursday. The latest guidance suggests a higher chance of rain and at least some chance of a few t-storms ahead of the cold front and in the warm sector late in the week towards Friday. Went a few degrees warmer than the NBM deterministic on Friday.

Marine
Dense Fog Advisory in effect for all waters through 9 AM. It's possible that eastern portions may need to be extended a bit longer.

Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected through the weekend with S/SW winds around 10 kt today, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. There could be a few gusts close to 25 kt on the ocean waters ahead of the front with seas around 4 ft late Sunday. Winds then shift to the north 10-15 kt following the cold frontal passage Sunday evening.

With warm weather expected this weekend, it is important to remember that water temps remain rather cold, in the 50s. A marine weather statement has been issued to highlight the dangers of swimming and being in waters this cold.

Mainly sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria expected on all waters Monday night through Wednesday. Seas on the ocean zones could get up to 4 ft, and possibly near 5 ft out on the eastern ocean Tuesday into Wednesday with mainly an E flow around 15g20kt.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through Thursday. A frontal system will likely bring rain to the area late next week, but there is too much uncertainty this far out in time in determining any hydrological impacts, if any.

Climate
Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Saturday and Sunday. Here is a list of the record high temperatures for our local climate sites and their corresponding forecast high temperatures:

Saturday:

Central Park, NY...................93 in 1996 Forecast High: 93 JFK International Airport..........90 in 1996 Forecast High: 85 Laguardia Airport..................93 in 1996 Forecast High: 91 Islip/MacArthur Airport............90 in 1996 Forecast High: 84 Newark Liberty.....................96 in 1996 Forecast High: 94 Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 1959 Forecast High: 82

Sunday:

Central Park, NY...................96 in 1941 Forecast High: 90 JFK International Airport..........94 in 2021 Forecast High: 82 Laguardia Airport..................94 in 1992 Forecast High: 89 Islip/MacArthur Airport............92 in 1992 Forecast High: 80 Newark Liberty.....................98 in 1992 Forecast High: 92 Bridgeport, CT.....................88 in 2021 Forecast High: 82

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for CTZ005>009. NY...
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for NYZ067>071.
Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...
Heat Advisory until 6pm EDT Sunday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.

Marine
None.