Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain. |
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Rain This Evening. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Occasionally To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 3 Seconds, Becoming Sw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Occasionally To 8 Ft. Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Occasionally To 6 Ft. Chance Of Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 630pm EST Tuesday Dec 23 2025 Synopsis A frontal system impacting the area moves east tonight as offshore low pressure develops. The low will move farther out into the Atlantic on Wednesday, then high pressure will build from the west Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will pass to the southwest while a cold front moves through on Christmas Day, with high pressure briefly returning at night. Another low will pass to the south from Friday into Saturday, followed by another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning Key Messages: * Black ice likely tonight as temperatures cool off and dewpoints remain fairly high. Precip ends this evening as temps very slowly cool down to the lower/mid 30s, while dewpoints remain fairly high, in the upper 20s/lower 30s. This may help promote black ice development in areas of standing water/slush across NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, and S CT, perhaps also in/near the Pine Barrens region of central Suffolk. Stronger west winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph overnight across all but interior S CT as the offshore low develops and tightens the pressure gradient may lead to some drying overnight, but it remains uncertain how much this may limit the black ice potential if at all. Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Thursday Night Wednesday will be brisk and colder, with a NW wind increasing to 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph in the morning and early afternoon via the pressure gradient between the offshore low and its inverted surface trough extending back to the eastern New England coast, and high pressure building from the west. Winds should diminish fairly quickly later Wednesday afternoon into the evening as the high builds in. High temps in the lower 40s will be near the seasonal norm. Better radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night from combo of clear skies for the first half of the night, with lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Temps may remain steady or slowly rise late at night as winds back WSW and as clouds ahead of an approaching/weakening shortwave trough move in. Christmas Day looks mainly dry. With the weakening shortwave trough grazing the area and a cold front moving through, there is a slight chance for a brief morning rain/snow shower across Long Island, NYC, and areas just west. Highs will once again be in the lower 40s. Winds shift from SW to NW in the afternoon with the cold frontal passage. with the main push of colder air coming at night. Low temps Thu night will range from the lower 20s in the NYC metro area and surrounding suburbs, to the teens elsewhere. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday What's Changed: Confidence is increasing in a period of accumulating snowfall from late Friday into Saturday. Key Points: * An accumulating snowfall is becoming more probable Friday afternoon into Saturday. * Chances for light snow or wintry mix changing to rain Sunday into early Monday. A series of disturbances will impact the region, resulting in a period of unsettled weather. Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to highlight weak upper ridging over the Northeast with a shortwave quickly passing through late Friday into Saturday. Brief upper ridging then builds in Sunday before a stronger closed low approaches the northeast into early next week. At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z Saturday. There continues to be some uncertainty on the storm track with this system, and the ultimate track will determine both precipitation types (rain/snow) and accumulations. Thus the consensus approach was taken for this update, given we are 4-5 days out. Given the model consensus has the local area on the north side of the system, with cold air already in place via the departing surface high, thermal profiles are suggestive of a period of decent snow growth from late Friday into early Saturday across much of the CWA. Best h7 frontogenetic forcing appears from NYC on south by 06Z Saturday. Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has trended down bit with the 12Z guidance suite, with a widespread 0.5" to 1.0" across the area (NBM near 0.3- 0.7" on average), with highest amounts from NYC on west and south There does appear to be a moisture connection to the system currently heading toward the West Coast, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 0.5" - 1.0" inbound by late Friday. All said, this should translate into an advisory level snowfall (3+") for much of the CWA (County Warning Area) Friday into Saturday, with a chance of warning criteria snow (6+") especially north and west of NYC. This would occur where any banding can set up for a period of time. NBM probabilities for these amounts (50-70% advisory, and 20-30% warning level) have also ticked up the past few runs. So, given the current forecast track of the system, NE NJ, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT seem most likely for a warning level snowfall, though again, probabilities remain around 20-30%. Thereafter, low pressure with a cold front quickly approaches on Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track northwest, well inland of the region, with the precipitation being mainly a snow/rain/ice mix, particularly for LoHud and interior S CT Saturday evening. The winter precipitation will then go over to all rain for a time Sunday. Dry weather looks to then return late Monday after the frontal passage. Marine Upgraded gale watch to gale warning for the ocean waters for daytime Wed, with NW flow gusting to 35 kt, and seas peaking at 5-8 ft Wednesday morning. Prior to that, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect there for tonight, with W flow gusting to 30 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft mainly after midnight. On the non ocean waters, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) also remains in effect, with start time after midnight tonight and also running into daytime Wed, for NW winds gusting to 30 kt. Conditions quickly subside late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as high pressure builds from the west. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond should return to the ocean waters after a cold frontal passage Thu afternoon and continue into Thu night, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and seas 4-6 ft. The non ocean waters lay also see gusts to 25-30 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening. Some 5-ft seas may linger on the outer ocean waters Fri morning. Another low will pass near the waters Fri-Sat with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions developing on the ocean waters Fri night, and continuing into Sat. Wind gusts/seas fall below advisory levels Sat evening as high pressure briefly builds in. Hydrology No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Increasing E flow Fri night into Sat will lead to higher total water levels during that time. Moon phase will be at first quarter so astronomical tides will not be as great a contributor as with a full/new moon, and raw model guidance at that time range falls well short of flood thresholds. Adding an additional 1/2 ft to account for model tendency to play catch-up at longer lead times results in water levels getting close to but still remaining below minor flood thresholds with the high tide cycles late Fri night and Sat afternoon. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6pm EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6am EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6am to 6pm EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. |
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