Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas Around 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft. Showers Likely With Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 546 PM EDT Thu Jun 17 2021 |
Synopsis for the Long Island Waters and New York Harbor - ANZ300
High pressure will be in control through Friday. A frontal system approaches Friday night, moving across the area Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds in on Sunday. A frontal system impacts the waters early next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
739pm EDT Thu Jun 17 2021
High pressure will be in control through Friday. A frontal system approaches Friday night, moving across the area Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure builds in on Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area in the Monday/Tuesday period, followed by high pressure for the middle of the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Quick update to temps/dewpoints otherwise forecast remains on track.
Heigheights continue to rise on the back side of a departing trough with surface high pressure continuing to build into the area. High pressure slides to the south tonight. Skies will be clear with dry and cool conditions tonight. With relatively lower dew points, lows for the interior may drop into the low 50s to possibly upper 40s. Coastal areas will remain a bit warmer as dew points will be a bit higher with lows in the middle 50s to low 60s.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Friday Night
High pressure to the south will allow wind to shift to a more southerly direction allowing for an increase in both temperatures and dew points. Much of the morning will remain clear as high pressure remains in place. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low and possibly middle 80s.
Winds will increase in the afternoon out of the S and SW to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible.
Skies begin to become cloudier in the afternoon and evening from west to east as a mid-level disturbance ahead of a digging trough approaches the area. Convection will approach the area from the west and generally be weakening into Friday night. It's possible that lingering showers with an isolated thunderstorm move through the area Friday evening and into the overnight, but much of the area should remain dry much of the night, especially areas further to the east. Lows Friday night will be in the 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
Saturday could be active weather day with potentially multiple rounds of convection which could last into Saturday night with the passage of a cold front. Details and confidence in timing of any hazards remains low at this time. Any convection that develops will come to an end Saturday night with loss of heating and the front moving east of the area.
Saturday should end up being a warm and more humid day with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s for most of the area. It may be a bit cooler across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut due to onshore flow. Dew points are still forecast in the lower 60s which will keep heat indices close to actual air temperatures.
High pressure then builds across the region on Sunday resulting in a dry and sunny day. On Monday and Tuesday a frontal system will impact the area resulting in another round of thunderstorms across the area. At the same time the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows an infusion of tropical moisture moving in from the Gulf coast. Although timing uncertainties remains, it appears there could be a potential for a flash flood threat during this time frame if this front interacts with the remnant tropical system. So this will need to be watched.
High pressure then builds in behind the front for the middle and end of the week.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be above normal with temperatures returning to near normal for the middle of the week.
High pressure with weak winds will result in below SCA conditions through Friday early afternoon. The high pressure moves south of the area allowing for S/SW winds increasing into Friday afternoon being sustained anywhere from 10-20 kt. There may be some occasional gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters during the late afternoon and early evening with seas becoming 4-5 feet. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are marginal and will be possible Friday night and through the day on Saturday as seas will remain elevated but winds decrease a bit with gusts only to 20 kt.
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the ocean waters expected through Saturday night, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Wind Saturday into Saturday night may be capped off around 20 kt as the air mass will be moving over the cooler ocean temperatures. Seas drop down below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on Sunday as high pressure builds across the area waters. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected to return on Monday ahead of a frontal system.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. Some heavier downpours are possible in the Mon-Tuesday time period as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase to around 2 inches.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
There is a moderate rip current risk for Friday and Saturday at Atlantic ocean beaches.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.