Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt This Afternoon. Isolated Gust Up To 50 Kt Possible During The Morning. Seas 11 To 14 Ft, Subsiding To 9 To 13 Ft This Afternoon. Chance Of Rain Late This Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight.|
|Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Sun...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New York NY
1131am EST Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis: Deep low pressure will quickly track northeast along the coast into the Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return for Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
The wind advisory has been cancelled, as gusts have subsided below advisory levels. Regardless, breezy conditions can be expected on the back side of the departing low.
Otherwise, any lingering wintry precipitation across eastern locales will produce minimal accumulations at best, and should largely end by early afternoon. Some lingering issues with ponding of water will be possible due to melting snow and clogged drains from downed leaves. Fair weather can be expected by afternoon.
Max temperatures today will be in the low to mid 40s across the interior with mid to low 50s along the coast
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
Skies should clear this evening as the low pulls away. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s well inland to mid/upper 30s NYC metro/Long Island. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday with temperatures in the mid 40s to near 50
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
Through the long term period the Pacific/western ridge will remain while a trough remains across the central and eastern US. Northern stream flow will predominate as a series of weak impulses rotate through the trough. One of the stronger waves moves through near zonal flow Sunday into Monday. Timing of this wave remains a little uncertain, and will keep probabilities at chance and slight chance. Colder air will be in place so will have chances of light snow inland and rain along the coast. Another wave passes generally to the southwest and south Wednesday as the wave moves through mid and low level higher pressure. Ensemble and model guidance keeps the area dry with generally higher pressure dominating as the wave passes. Surface high pressure will be over the area for Thanksgiving as another shortwave passes to the north through the longwave trough. Temperatures will be moderating for Thanksgiving, still remaining below seasonal normals.
A southern stream shortwave doe move under the western ridge Monday night into Tuesday and quickly tracks through the southern states. At this time there is no phasing with the northern trough, and this system is expected to remain south next Thursday through Saturday.
Gale Warnings are in effect. Gale force winds will continue for all waters behind the low through much of the day.
Rough seas will gradually subside as the day progresses.
Gusty winds continue tonight, mainly peaking at 30 kt.
Westerly winds and gusts will be diminishing through the day Saturday as low pressure departs to the northeast and high pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters. Winds and seas on the non ocean waters are likely to be below Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday morning. However, ocean seas will be on going at Small Craft Advisory levels, with wind gusts marginal. By late Saturday winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels Saturday night through Tuesday night with high pressure in control most of the time. A weak wave of low pressure moves north of the waters late Sunday through Monday
No hydrologic issues are expected today and through Thanksgiving Day
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Water levels have subsided below flood levels as winds have turned to a more northwesterly direction following the departing area of low pressure. Around 3-4 ft tidal departures were noted earlier this morning. As high tide has passed, water levels are expected to continue to fall.
Water levels are expected to be significantly lower for the afternoon high tide, but could have some residual minor flooding issues in eastern Great South Bay with a switch to westerly winds if water does not recede quickly enough. Elsewhere water levels are expected to remain below minor flood thresholds for Friday.
High surf of 8 to 12 ft along with elevated water levels will result in widespread beach erosion and flooding early this morning. Localized minor dune erosion is possible. Along western LI Sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may cause some splashover seawalls and exacerbate any lingering localized coastal flooding along shoreline areas
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Gale Warning until 6pm EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355.