Marine Weather Net

Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ353 Forecast Issued: 1054 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Overnight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Around 10 Kt Late. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
115am EDT Monday April 22 2024

Synopsis
High pressure will generally be in control through Tuesday before moving offshore late Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front moves through on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close out the week. A frontal system may impact the area for the weekend.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
For this update, adjusted temperatures down for many locations, especially across the interior and Pine Barrens region of LI. However, have held off on frost advisories. The dry airmass across the region and the gradient wind increasing a bit the second half of the night are limiting the forecast coverage of the frost. For Orange county NY, the western half of the county is right around freezing for lows. This was a close call, but being that it is the very beginning of the growing season, held off on freeze warning.

Otherwise, skies will continue to clear overnight with lows primarily in the lower 40s for the urban areas, lower and middle 30s inland and Pine Barrens of eastern LI, and the upper 30s near the coast.

For Monday look for a good amount of sunshine and W to NW flow. After a chilly start look for temperatures to recover with mainly lower and middle 60s for most places. Went above blended guidance / NBM based on synoptic regime, think there will be enough of a NW flow for a large majority of the day to preclude sea breeze advancement. Higher res guidance can overdo this at times, but usually later in the season. However, if the synoptic driven winds end up a bit lighter then the sea breeze can make in-roads sooner, especially for coastal and southeastern sections. Thinking the sea breeze happens very late towards 5 pm closer to the coast and further east, if it even happens at all. One could make the argument to go a few degrees warmer, but based on some sea breeze uncertainty did not get more aggressive with temperature forecast.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Tuesday Night
For Monday night look again for clear skies and light winds. Dew point readings will likely be a shade higher with a little air mass modification in all likelihood. With light winds more of a certainty for the duration of the night and the lack of any cloud cover the chances for more coverage in terms of frost, and perhaps minor agriculture impacts increases some. Subsequent forecasts will need to take a closer look with respect to this, but expect at least some patchy frost across interior and rural locations. Lows will be primarily in the lower and middle 30s once again further away from urban locales, otherwise mainly upper 30s closer to the coast, with 40s in the more urban locations. Went with MAV guidance for min temp and dew points.

During Tuesday high pressure begins to get further east and should be primarily offshore later in the day. A return flow gets established quickly during the early portions of the afternoon with the winds primarily off the colder ocean and out of the S and SSE. This wind direction should result in a fairly wide temperatures spread across the region for the afternoon as areas further west and inland won't get the entrainment of the wind off the colder ocean compared to places further east and closer to the coast. Look for a fair amount of sunshine across the region, with perhaps a few mid level clouds encroaching into western sections later in the day. Went closer to NBM 75th percentile for temps across western third of the area, with some manual adjustments based on climo for this time of year further east.

For Tuesday night with the high getting further east and the approach of the next system from the west look for the winds to veer more to the S and perhaps the SSW towards Wednesday AM. The column will undergo more of a deep layered SW flow. Thus, clouds will increase, especially above 5 kft or thereabouts. A lot will depend on the speed and the timing of the approach of the frontal boundary, but the column may moisten enough that some light showers or sprinkles could very well break out before daybreak Wed, especially across western most locations. Went slight chance to chance Probability of Precipitation during the pre-dawn hours towards sunrise.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
Unsettled weather returns to start the period as a mid level trough swings into the Northeast, pushing a surface front through on Wednesday. Moisture appears limited though, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) under an inch and surface dew pts mostly under 50F, so not anticipating a widespread significant rainfall with this system. However, a hint of CAPE (a hundred or two joules), steeper low level lapse rates, and speed shear may allow for a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of the advancing boundary in a low CAPE, modest shear environment. As of now, the threat window looks to be in the later morning and afternoon hours, depending on the progression of the front. Ensembles keep Quantitative Precipitation Forecast light with the frontal passage. mostly under a quarter inch outside any convective elements.

The boundary likely moves through by the evening, and the trough axis shifts east of the region Wednesday night. Ridging gradually builds thereafter into the start of the weekend. Conditions dry out Thursday as a 1030 mb surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. The high remains over the region Friday, before slipping offshore and setting up southerly flow.

This weekend, a shortwave over the Central US will attempt to ride up and over the amplified ridge into the weekend, bringing a return to rain chances. This energy isn't forecast to move onshore the West Coast until midweek, so will likely continue to see varying solutions/timing until better sampling is achieved. Capped Probability of Precipitation at high chance (50%) to account for this uncertainty.

As for temperatures, they look to average near, to just below, normal for late April. Afternoon highs generally climb into the 60s, with morning lows in the 30s and 40s. The coolest day in the period appears to be Thursday behind the frontal passage, with highs struggling to get out of the 50s for most. Frost/freeze headlines may be needed a couple of mornings late in the week, at least for portions of the local area. With only subtle adjustments, stayed closed to national blended guidance for this update.

Marine
Primarily 2 ft ocean seas prevail through Monday night with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient overall. Sub-small craft conditions will prevail across the coastal waters through Tuesday, with perhaps more marginal small craft conditions out on the ocean late Tuesday night as seas begin to inch up along with winds out of the south.

A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing flow into Wednesday. This should allow SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to develop on the ocean with seas also climbing to around 5 ft. Non ocean waters may see a period of 25 kt gusts Wednesday into Wednesday evening before subsiding behind a cold frontal passage. Seas could linger near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria on the ocean Wednesday night before diminishing, then sub SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected on all waters thru late week.

Hydrology
No hydrologic concerns exist throughout the forecast period.

NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.

Marine
None.