South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...E Winds Around 15 Kt With Occasional Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain. Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sun...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain And Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Rain Likely With Patchy Drizzle. |
| Mon...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047am EDT Fri May 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High risk of rip currents for this weekend. Otherwise, no significant changes for weekend forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cool, breezy and wet for the Memorial Day weekend. This will be a prolonged soaking stratiform rain. Primary threat will be areas of minor urban and poor drainage flooding. 2) High risk of rip currents Saturday and Sunday, possibly into Monday. High surf potential for Saturday Night into Sunday with minor beach erosion and flooding possible during the times of high tide Sunday after and night. 3) Milder and drier conditions are likely for mid to late next week. .KEY MESSAGE 1... A southern branch upper trough over the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley and persistent western Atlantic ridging will allow subtropical moisture and vort energy to be drawn northeastward into the region through this weekend. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will remain entrenched across SE Canada and New England this weekend under confluent upper flow, allowing for a persistent overrunning SW flow pattern over a warm front slowly lifting north from the Mid Atlantic. Rain will gradually overspread the area Saturday, from SW to NE, becoming moderate and persisting into Sunday afternoon before tapering off from west to east late Sunday/Sunday Eve. Light rain and drizzle could linger Sunday Night as warm front and weak low pressure moves near or over the area. General agreement in a weak area of low pressure developing across the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and lifting towards the area Sat Night thru Sunday. There is subtle spread on the exact strength/track of low pressure, northward progression of the front and low-level frontogenetic zone, which is resulting in a 25th to 75th percentile NBM spread of 1 1/2" to 3" of rainfall across the region Saturday into Sunday. 00z GEPS/GEFS/EPS guidance also in general agreement with 30- 50% prob of greater than 2" rainfall Sat into Sunday for southern portions of the region, but are not indicating potential for greater than 4". GFS (Global Forecast System) an ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) AI ensembles have 10-20% prob of 2" during this time period. Good agreement on highest rainfall amounts across southern and southwestern portions of the local Tri-State closer to the front, and lower amounts to the north with more dry air and subsidence to overcome. General agreement in strongest llj supporting heaviest rainfall Sat eve into Sunday aft, with WPC URRD and model soundings indicating rainfall rates up to 0.3" to 0.4"/hr during this time. If and where higher end rainfall amounts are realized, areas of nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding would be primary threat, with localized moderate urban/poor drainage flood impacts possible. This event is more reminiscent of a cool season stratiform rainfall event (long duration of moderate rainfall rates), and not a deep convection event (intense rainfall rates) like experienced on Wednesday. One note that will be monitored is the 00z NAM is a northerly outlier, bringing in some weak instability aloft on head of llj and periods of heavy rain (several hours of up to 1/2"/hr rates) Sat Night into Sunday, indicating potential for widespread 2 to 4" of and locally 5" of rainfall over 36 hrs. The high end of these rainfall amounts would increase potential for localized urban/poor drainage flash flooding and small stream flooding. At this point this is a worst case scenario (less than 5% probability). Once again, the overwhelming majority of model guidance keep these type of rainfall amounts south and west of the region at this time. In addition to the rain, breezy E/NE winds over the weekend (15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph Saturday afternoon thru Sunday afternoon. A few gusts to 40 mph possible along the coast late Sat Night thru Sunam as 40-45kt 950hpa jet overspreads the area. The rain and onshore flow will keep highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s Sat and Sunday (5 to 10 degrees below normal). General agreement on an approaching northern stream shortwave, inducing one more wave of low pressure along the stalled boundary on Monday, with an additional bout of light to moderate rain possible. This appears be the kicker which allows the front to sage far enough south Monday Night into Tuesday for drying conditions. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Moderate rip current/longshore current risk today with easterly wind wave building to 3 to 5ft. High rip/longshore current risk likely Saturday and Sunday as easterly swells continue to build to 8 to 12 ft. High surf potential for Saturday Night into Sunday with minor beach erosion and flooding possible during the times of high tide Sunday after and night. High rip current risk could linger into Monday with residual 5 ft long period ese swell. .KEY MESSAGE 3... A large mid to upper level ridge may begin to build towards the northeast mid to late week. This would help bring a return to dry and warm conditions (upper 70s to lower/mid 80s for highs). However, 00Z globals are pointing toward an upper trough closing off over the Northeast into eastern Canada Wednesday into Fri. Should guidance converge on this scenario in subsequent model runs, more seasonable conditions with chances for diurnal shower activity would be on tap. Marine E SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind gusts likely develop on the ocean this morning, with seas building to 5 ft. Winds likely subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for a period late today into tonight, before increasing to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level on all waters Saturday morning. A period of marginal gale force gusts likely late Saturday night into Sunday. Seas on the ocean will continue to build to 10-12 Sat Night into Sun. Winds will gradually subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Sunday and Sunday night, but ocean seas will likely remain elevated through Monday in residual SE swell. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355. |
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