Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers Through The Day. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Showers Through The Night.|
|Wednesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403am CDT Sunday May 31 2020
Quiet night with a clean radar. There are some low clouds over the area but nothing impactful. At 8Z temperatures have dropped into the 70s over much of the area with a few locations still in the lower 80s, ugh warm.
Forecast focus in the short term will be on temperatures first and then the possibility of rain returning on Tuesday. The extended will focus on rain chances but also mention a little about the possibility of a weak tropical system.
High pressure will continue to build across the region and into the southeastern CONUS and the FL straigheights by Tuesday night. H925 temps of 22-24C suggest highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. It got rather warm yesterday with numerous locations near 90 and see no reason that won't happen again today with most sites possibly a few degrees warmer. NBM has been on the cool side the last few days but finally appears to be catching up. A few sites NBM still looks a little too cool but will only make minor adjustments to highs today and tomorrow.
Heading into Tuesday as the ridge extends to the southeast over the eastern Gulf, FL, and down into the FL straigheights moisture will ride up along the western periphery. This surge/wave(not sure its really an easterly wave) of moisture, slightly lowered hgheights aloft, daytime heating, and rather deep southeasterly flow should have little problems leading to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Have bumped up PoPs, not up to but closer to what the ECM and GFS MOS values have which is significantly above NBM values for Tuesday.
As we move through the work week the pattern we appear to move into is more of a Summer like pattern where convection will be driven by diurnal fluctuations. The ridge that moves into the southeastern CONUS weakens significantly with relatively low hgheights across the area through the week. Overall moisture will not be an issue as rich gulf moisture will be abundant and PWs will remain at or above 1.5". With each day as we heat up the seabreeze/lake breeze will likely become active around midday or early afternoon. The LL winds through the week appear to be driven by diurnal changes more than synoptically driven so the seabreeze likely won't penetrate as far inland however outflow boundaries should help get a few storms even into southwestern MS each afternoon but the highest Probability of Precipitation will remain closer to the coast.
Heading into next weekend and early the following week there continue to be some indications of a tropical system trying to develop in the southern/southwestern Gulf. There is still a lot of uncertainty including the fact that we still need an actual system to develop. You have probably been hearing a little more about a feature called the Central American Gyre (CAG). This is nothing new and is just a name for the more generic monsoonal circulation (thanks to research meteorologist Philippe Papin with the US Naval Research Laboratory for pointing that out to me). Well this circulation can eventually lead to tropical development in the eastern PAC, western Caribbean, and even the Gulf and a few over the last few years have occurred and that appears to be what models are trying to do again. At this time we need to focus less on the operational model runs and pay more attention to ensembles and these EPS(ECM ensemble)/GFES(GFS ensemble)/CMCE(Canadian ensemble) all show a weak surface low in the central/western Gulf sometime next weekend. At this time those and even the operational models show something orgnaized but not too strong however, they all indicate heavy rain could be a big issue next weekend and into early next week. As mentioned last night, there is nothing to get all worked up about however it is Hurricane season so we should always be prepared and be monitoring the tropics. /CAB/
Conditions remain rather benign over the coastal waters through at least Monday. A surge of moisture will work into the area Tuesday and this will bring showers and thunderstorms to the coastal waters. Onshore flow returns tomorrow as high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the week progresses high pressure over the Atlantic and weak low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will lead to moderate southeasterly flow. Winds may pick up next weekend if there is any development of a tropical system in the western/cnetral Gulf. /CAB/
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.