Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thursday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming West With Gusts Up To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southwest 2 Feet At 3 Seconds And Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet After Midnight. Wave Detail: Northwest 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southeast 2 Feet At 7 Seconds, Becoming North 5 Feet At 5 Seconds And West 2 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 5 Feet At 6 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 5 Seconds And Southeast 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Saturday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 447am CST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 Long Term (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 333am CST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 A southern stream shortwave will move across the area Wednesday night and Thursday, aided by the East Coast trough. This will push a cold front across the area Thursday, arriving in the northwestern portions of the area around sunrise, and moving into Alabama around midday. Rain and a few elevated thunderstorms will accompany the front. While the shear would be sufficient for severe weather, instability is almost non-existent. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with this system, mainly in northwestern portions of the CWA. The medium range modeling continues to struggle with just how far offshore the frontal boundary makes it on Thursday. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) runs have been pretty consistent in pushing the front well offshore, while the GFS (Global Forecast System) has trended close enough to the Louisiana coast to hold the potential for at least some rain over the local area for Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF has essentially a dry forecast for the area from Thursday afternoon into the daytime hours on Sunday. This will also have a significant effect on temperatures, as the drier solution also means more cold air advection across the area. Regardless, high temperatures Thursday are likely to occur prior to noon. Thursday night through Friday night temperatures will be tied to the progression of the front. If the ECMWF verifies, sub- freezing temperatures will be possible across a significant portion of the area both Friday and Saturday mornings. The GFS solutions are 10-15 degrees warmer due to cloud cover. The NBM deterministic is essentially a compromise between the two, but would expect that those numbers will start drifting toward the preferred modeling over the next couple days. Highs on Friday will also be a struggle, but would note that the GFSBufr soundings would actually be somewhat more appropriate for the ECMWF solution, with most of the area not getting much warmer than 52-53F at best, and some may not get out of the 40s. Saturday should see some improvement in temperatures, getting into the 60s. High pressure will be off to the east of the area by Saturday night and Sunday with winds gradually turning onshore as a southern stream shortwave (the one off the West Coast now) approaches the area. The GFS is considerably quicker with this system, with some light precipitation possibly arriving prior to sunrise Sunday, while the ECMWF solution is more like Sunday night. Of course, at that time range, the NBM deterministic is somewhat of a compromise, and would expect Probability of Precipitation to eventually focus on a shorter time span for precipitation chances. We'll have to keep an eye on that system for excessive rainfall, as the medium range models indicate a very moist airmass with dew points in the mid 60s, and GFSBufr soundings show anomalously high precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2 inches Sunday night through Monday night. Temperatures from Sunday until frontal passage, which could be as late as next Wednesday (12/11) will likely get into the 70s for highs, normal is mid 60s. Overnight lows could be as much as 15 to 20F above normal. Marine Issued at 333am CST Tuesday Dec 3 2024 Will carry Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the far western waters today. Wind field should relax later this evening through the daytime hours Thursday. Cold advection behind the front may necessitate Small Craft Advisories Thursday night into Friday, especially if the farther south solution for the frontal position in the ECMWF operational verifies. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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