Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet Building To 3 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas To 8 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Light Rain Through The Day.|
|Tonight...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Chance Of Light Rain.|
|Friday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Friday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Sunday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
Synopsis for Pascagoula to SW Pass Mississippi - GMZ501|
Synopsis for SW Pass Mississippi River to Atchafalaya River- GMZ500
317 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
A weak area of low pressure will continue to slowly develop over the Gulf and move east today. High pressure will then rebuild into the northwest Gulf Friday and settle across the eastern U.S. through the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409am CST Thu Nov 14 2019
Far warmer than 24 hours ago but still below normal and this will continue to be the case through the upcoming weekend. At 9z radar showed quite a few echos however most of this is likely not reaching the ground as PWs from last nigheights sndg was still at 0.27". This is rather dry and will take a while to moisten up.
As for the forecast the next 24 hrs will be the most challenging till Sunday. Main concern, which won't really be that impactful, is rain today and tonight. As mentioned earlier the column is quite dry and will take some time to moisten up. A nice little s/w is moving through northern Mexico towards southern TX. This wave will merge with a stronger s/w dropping across the Rockies as it moves towards the Lower MS Valley. Ahead of these two features weak isentropic lift will continue to develop scattered showers. Much of this rain will continue to struggle to reach the ground through the day however a few hundredths at best can not be ruled out especially across the southern half of the area(along and south of the 10/12 corridor). The best chance for measurable rain across the northwest may be late this afternoon and tonight as the northern stream s/w approaches. This feature will be stronger and may have a better chance of squeezing out what available moisture is in place. That all said have backed down on Probability of Precipitation a tad mainly because not really sure if everyone will measure. Yes very light rain is likely over a good portion of the area but whether it amounts to anything appreciable is in question. Even if rain doesn't quite reach the ground for some areas it will still be an ugly dreary day with broken to overcast skies and cold temperatures, highs around 20 degrees below normal.
Tonight's s/w will continue to swing southeast and is expected to deepen and close off just to our east. Drier air will be reinforced but highs on Friday will actually be a touch warmer thanks to what should be full sun. Lows may drop to near freezing once again Friday night mainly across SELA along and north of I-12. This weekend will remain dry with temperatures remaining below normal but temps will moderate a little with highs by Sunday in the lower to mid 60s.
Overall the forecast looks fairly quiet going into next week however there are some questions mainly Sunday night and Monday morning. Temperatures will continue to moderate with near normal temps possible around Wednesday. The biggest question in this part of the forecast is rain chances overnight Sunday and early Monday morning. Most of the guidance is suggesting a faster weaker s/w Sunday night. This would suggest a dry forecast however There are a few suggesting a slower more potent s/w and this again could squeeze out what available moisture is there for some showers. Given the ensembles are quite pessimistic with this feature have opted for a mostly dry forecast and sticking with 10-20% Probability of Precipitation at best for now. even if the s/w is slower and stronger the really won't be anything of concern as light rain at best would be expected, maybe around morning rush hour. /CAB/
As previous forecaster mentioned winds are expected to bounce back up as a weak surface low develops in the gulf combines with the large area of high pressure across the Plains. this will tighten the gradient to allow for winds to increase this afternoon and more so tonight across much if not all of the open waters along with the Breton and Chandeluer Sounds. Have already issued an SCY for the waters east of the MS River beginning this afternoon and then expanding to include the rest of the previously mentioned waters tonight. Winds may remain on the breezier side through Friday night but should finally begin to back down as high pressure builds across the area for the weekend. /CAB/
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm CST Friday for GMZ550-552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm CST Friday for GMZ536-538-555-557-575-577.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 6pm CST Friday for GMZ552-570-572.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6pm CST Friday for GMZ538-555-557-575-577.