Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming East In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Wednesday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: South 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1253pm CDT Sat May 16 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1156am CDT Sat May 16 2026 Morning cloud cover has broken up into a beautiful, seasonable day across our area. Looking to tonight, conditions will be marginally conducive for patchy fog in the Pearl and Pascagoula River if winds can calm and cloud cover stays more limited. Considering how much patchy fog struggled to develop this morning, prospects of fog development are negligible for Sunday morning. Despite the southeasterly flow around the southwestern flank of the surface high, low to mid-level RH values are actually taking a hit today as drier air mixes in from the northern Gulf. This will not last long, however, as deeper moisture will begin to move into the area on Sunday. This in accompaniment with the shortwave ridging eroding overhead will enable seabreeze and lakebreeze activity to become more prominent. Northwest areas have the highest chance of afternoon shower and storm activity as the southeast flow directs these boundaries to the northwest in a favorable orientation for enhanced convergence and lift. High instability (>2500 j/kg), strong low and mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/km), and sufficient 0-6km shear (25-35 knots) will provide an environment capable of producing a few strong storms and a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in NW areas. Downbursts (DCAPE >800 j/kg) and hail (SHIP >1.0) will be the primary threat with any strong/severe storms that can develop near and north of the Baton Rouge area. In addition to severe weather impacts, these storms will be somewhat slow-moving and storm motion to the northwest being opposite to the shear vector to the southeast could create the potential for backbuilding. As such, locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding could be a possibility in urban and poor drainage areas around the Baton Rouge metro area. Long Term (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1156am CDT Sat May 16 2026 Southeasterly winds will generally prevail through late next week, bringing deep moisture inland along with summer-like diurnally driven showers and storms. Weak shortwaves within the prevailing southwesterly flow of the Rockies trough will increase chances of storms especially in the northern half of the CWA particularly Wednesday-Friday. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s during this period, slightly above normal for this time of year. Alterations to the high temperature forecast will be largely dependent on storm coverage on a given day which may vary as guidance hones in on timing of these shortwave disturbances. Marine Issued at 1156am CDT Sat May 16 2026 High pressure anchored to the east offshore the mid-Atlantic states will continue to provide onshore SE flow this weekend into next week. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots could raise small craft exercise caution headlines for waters near and south of Terrebonne Bay on Sunday and Monday, when the pressure gradient is at its tightest. Moisture steadily increasing will begin to provide a few scattered shower chances mainly next week, with best chances mainly late-week as a front approaches the northern Gulf coast. Waves/seas will steadily increase early next week given ongoing SE fetch reaching 3-5ft for outer Gulf waters (primarily west of the MS delta) to 2-3ft for nearshore waters, but winds back down some mid/late week reducing wave/seas. NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. |
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