Stake Island, LA to Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming West With Gusts Up To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Friday...Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Friday Night...Northwest Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet.|
|Saturday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1143pm CST Monday Feb 6 2023
(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 300pm CST Monday Feb 6 2023
The region will be under a very active southwesterly flow aloft between a high pressure ridge over the Bahamas and a deepening low over the high plains of TX/OK. A surface low should be developing early Wednesday around the ArkLaTex region. A weak boundary/front will be continuing to move northward from the Gulf over the CWA, however, the primary focus will be a cold front upstream that will be moving across eastern Texas and eventually into Louisiana late in the day or overnight. Models have slowed just a bit showing most of the weather delayed from past updates with most of the rain/convection developing or moving into the region by mid to late afternoon from west to east.
The upper level trough looks to take on a negative tilt over the Ark/MO Ozarks Wednesday night. This should not hinder an increase in rainfall and convection across the midsouth and lower MS River Valley. This feature will continue rapidly downstream. As it does, the tug of the trough will become less evident on the surface front, which may allow it to slow down over SE LA or S MS going into Thursday. As the front stalls along our eastern CWA border, continued showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary. It finally begins to move as a strong upper level short wave begins to amplify upstream during the day Friday. Where the front stalls will be where the greatest hydro potential will be with the heaviest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. We still have a few days to watch and then highlight higher hydro concerns.
Severe weather parameters are still there, but mitigated just a bit with the best jet dynamics and difluent flow over the midsouth region north of us. Still, with the presence of adequate deep layer shear and and upward trend in instability values, a strong updraft or two is certainly possible. Early CAMs (NAM 3km) are showing a line of convection developing across SW LA and moves generally toward our region. Although some instability may be lost with the loss of insolation during the day, there is still enough low level ascent and decent mid level lapse rates to keep some severe weather potential going overnight. At this juncture, the primary concern will be strong gusty winds. If a line of storms does indeed develop we'll need to watch SW to NE oriented bowing segments for potential mesovorts as the wind profile trends more unidirectional closer to the frontal boundary with at least marginally favorable (line-normal) bulk shear vectors.
Going into the weekend, Cold Air Advection begins to ramp up behind the front. Aloft, heigheights will take a nose dive as the upper trough digs over our region allowing for below average temperatures to take shape late week and into the upcoming weekend. High pressure finally builds into the region late in the period, which should limit the stronger northerly breezes, but allow temperatures across much of the forecast area to drop into the 30s overnight with near perfect radiational cooling conditions...at least as we see it for now. (Frye)
Issued at 300pm CST Monday Feb 6 2023
As our next storm system begins to move closer to our region by midweek, expect southerly flow to increase, especially over our outer Gulf waters. Cautionary headlines will be in place later tonight and through Tuesday. As the front passes, more favorable winds and seas are expected. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the cold front Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday, especially across the eastern most marine zones. Northerly winds will eventually increase leading to possible Small Craft Advisories late this week and into the upcoming weekend. (Frye)
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.