Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast To East And Increasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 2 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East To Southeast 3 Feet At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. |
| Monday...East Winds Near 10 Knots, Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Subsiding To Around 2 Feet. |
| Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Variable. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Variable Winds Near 5 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. |
| Tuesday Night...Variable Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034am EDT Fri August 14 2026 Issued at 1033am EDT Fri August 14 2026 CIMSS Mimic Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows a rather large plume of increased moisture surging northwest towards the Florida Keys this morning. The deepest moisture with this surge is still to the south of Andros Island, but it is rapidly pressing northwestward. Behind this surge of moisture, we can also see quite dry air pressing westward. This dry air was currently over and to the north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. KBYX radar is active this morning with showers and thunderstorms being detected mainly across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf waters to the southeast to T Tower. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and dew points are in the mid to upper 70s. CIMSS products also continue to show a mean layer ridge across the central North Atlantic. The western periphery of this ridge extends westward into the Keys this morning. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are observing east to southeast breezes near 10 knots as a result. Short Term - Tonight Through Friday CAST... The 12z morning sounding shows a fairly moist profile through the lowest several thousand feet along with another layer from approximately 600-400 mb. There was also a decent amount of dry air between 850 to 600 mb. Instability isn't crazy but it is still quite high with CAPE values between 2200-2600 J/kg. The PWAT (Precipitable Water) value measured is a little bit lower than yesterday at 1.71 inches. This is close to the 25th percentile for the date. The wind profile is probably the biggest change from yesterday with mainly east to southeast breezes but with speeds near 15 knots. Overall, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast of 30% for today as the dry air layer is a little concerning for some of the shower activity as it approaches the Island Chain. Some of the showers may entrain this dry air thus weakening them or even choking them off completely. The better chance for shower activity appears to be overnight and into Saturday morning when the deepest moisture near Andros Island will basically be overhead. Issued at 400am EDT Fri August 14 2026 Surface wind and pressure analysis places an expansive high pressure system centered in the vicinity of the Azores in the North Atlantic, which continues to strengthen and build westward. The axis of the ridge is bisecting the Florida Space Coast. Meanwhile, lower tropospheric vorticity analysis places an inverted trough in the vicinity of eastern Cuba and the island of Hispaniola. Finally, satellite-derived layer- and atmospheric- integrated precipitable water products are highlighting a postively-tilted, discernible moisture surge extending from Andros Island northeastward to the central Bahamas. Locally, earlier convection associated with a broken cloud line over portions of the Lower Keys has since waned, with local KBYX Doppler radar now only detecting isolated showers across the Keys marine zones. Land- based surface observations are sampling temperatures in the balmy mid 80s at this early Friday morning hour. Overall, with a noticeable increase in forcing and steering flow, the Florida Keys will quickly move from a mesoscale regime to a synoptic-scale forced regime later today through the weekend. The aforementioned moisture surge, coincident with the inverted trough to its southwest, will progress westward today. Meanwhile, at the surface, the high pressure system will continue to build westward towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes. Composting these features will result in a wetter and more thundery pattern beginning later this afternoon, continuing through at least Saturday morning. Forecast soundings do indicate a bit of inhibition to overcome, which will continued to be monitored, as it may limit more widespread and stronger thunderstorms across the Keys for these periods. Thereafter, there is high confidence that a strong Saharan dust layer (a bit unusual for this late in August) will propagate westward towards the Keys by sometime late Saturday afternoon or early Sunday evening. While this will tend to shut down any shower and thunderstorm activity thereafter for several days, we will need to monitor the leading edge of this dust plume. The leading edge is analogous to a classic Mid-west dry line, with a discernible line of deep convective thunderstorms often occurring as the plume pushes through the Keys. In terms of the tropics, although the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two possible areas in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic, chances for development of both systems continues to wane. Regardless of development, neither system is expected to provide impacts to the Keys at this time. Marine Issued at 1033am EDT Fri August 14 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys through late afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure in the central North Atlantic will strengthen and build westward for the next several days. With the associated ridge axis located north of the Florida Keys, this will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes for the marine zones through Sunday night. A weak frontal boundary will stall over the Florida Peninsula for early next week. This will disrupt the ridge's influence on the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will respond, becoming light to gentle. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
Key West FL Radar
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