Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...East Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Scattered To Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday And Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday And Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005|
949 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020
The Keys waters lie between a weak area of low pressure over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula and a large area of high pressure near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing fresh to to occasional strong east breezes this morning and again tonight, with peaks and lulls for Thursday through Friday. For this weekend, winds will slacken.
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of October 20...
- 44 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 48 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 53 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 45 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 15 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 12 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 6 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 4 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Key West FL
451am EDT Wednesday Oct 21 2020
Under mostly cloudy skies, mainly east winds of 5 to 15 mph along with showers passing through, temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting scattered showers and an occasional thunderstorm tracking west northwest across our region. Due to episodes of rainfall, winds are mainly east ranging from 12 to 20 knots across our entire marine district.
Short Term - Today Through Friday Night
A mid and upper level trough will lie in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight, before exiting offshore of the east coast of the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Hence, periodic spells of ascent will persist through tonight. Meanwhile, a low level trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula and into the extreme Southeast Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a confluent and very moist easterly trajectory. Subsequently, well above normal likely probability of precipitation will be inserted through tonight. For the balance of this week, pockets of drier air, an evolving decoupled flow and little if any lift will result in high chance probability of precipitation taping off to low chance beginning Friday.
(Saturday through Tuesday) Another low level trough lying from the Northwest Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Bahamas, will track northwestward and cross our entire region late Saturday night and Sunday. With that, ample low level moisture and subtle low level confluence will prompt 30 to 40 percent rain chances. Beyond that, a weak Western Atlantic ridge will extend across the Sunshine State, resulting in much drier air to seep in. Hence, isolated climo 20 percent probability of precipitation along with daytime highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows near 80 degrees.
Moderate to occasionally strong east breezes are anticipated, but with typical peaks and lulls expected today through the balance of this week. For this weekend, gentle to moderate breezes are expected, before light to gentle winds are anticipated by Sunday night.
In 1964, the daily record low temperature of 64 degrees was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.
NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for GMZ033-034- 055-075.