Marine Weather Net

Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

WSW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
25
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
20
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

ENE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ072 Forecast Issued: 415 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
Today...Southwest To West Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming North And Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet, Building To 5 To 8 Feet In The Afternoon. Isolated Showers.
Tonight...Northeast Winds Near 25 Knots, Decreasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 6 To 10 Feet. Isolated Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Northeast Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Friday Night...Northeast To East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Saturday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet.
Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet.
Sunday...Southeast To South Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.
Sunday Night...South To Southwest Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Isolated Showers.
Monday...Southwest To West Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest And Increasing To Near 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet, Building To 4 To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Isolated Showers.
Monday Night...Northwest Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 7 Feet. Isolated Showers.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
415 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021

A strong cold front will blast through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this morning, followed by strong northerly breezes and quickly building seas. Breezes will veer to the northeast and slacken somewhat on Friday. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will persist Friday night through Saturday night. Breezes will diminish appreciably Sunday and Sunday night, only to freshen once again on Monday during the next cold frontal passage.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of January 28...
- 38 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 24 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 23 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 15 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 14 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 15 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 12 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 10 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
407am EST Thu Jan 28 2021

Water vapor imagery highligheights a broad mean-layer ridge complex over the Caribbean, south of a belt of westerlies racing to the east across northern Florida and the Southeast United States. Upper level ridging is building into the Canadian Prairies, just upstream of a polar airmass spilling to the south near the western-most Great Lakes. A cold front stretches to the southwest from Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche, with strong northerly breezes and a much cooler and drier airmass behind the boundary. Ahead of the front, light westerly breezes prevail along the Florida Keys with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Those locations in the 60s have experienced some patchy ground fog, although recent satellite derived imagery and webcams seem to indicate most of this mist is mixing-out. The KBYX radar detects a thin line of emaciated showers ahead of the front.

.FORECAST... The cold front will blast through the Florida Keys this morning. We have retained slight rain chances (10%), although the current radar trends indicate wetting rains are less likely. Northerly winds will begin to howill after the frontal passage, with a few hours of low stratus. Windy conditions will persist into Friday morning as cold air advection contends with seasonally warm sea surface temperatures, as high as the upper 70s in Florida Bay. Lows Friday morning will be near 60 to the upper 50s in the Upper Keys. Winds will veer to the northeast on Friday with temperatures struggling to break through 70. Another cool night Friday night with lows in the lower 60s across the island chain. The surface high will have subtropical aspirations as it slides southeast into the western North Atlantic. Fresh breezes will attempt to become easterly on Saturday, and will finally turn south of east Saturday night and Sunday morning. The next cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and will race to the southeast towards the Keys Sunday night and Monday morning. The second of two cold fronts will push through on Monday with another blast of cooler and drier air.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys due to increasing north winds, peaking at 25-27 knots for a few hours later this morning and early this afternoon. Advisories will persist into Saturday morning for portions of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a strong cold front will blast through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this morning, followed by strong northerly breezes and quickly building seas. Breezes will veer to the northeast and slacken somewhat on Friday. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes will persist Friday night through Saturday night. Breezes will diminish appreciably Sunday and Sunday night, only to freshen once again on Monday during the next cold frontal passage.

Climate
The high temperature at Key West International Airport on Wednesday afternoon was 78F. This marked the 42nd consecutive day on which the high temperature at Key West remained below 80F. With a strong cold front moving through the Keys this morning, and another cold front forecast to move through on Monday, it appears very likely that this streak will be extended for at least several more days. The longest streak of sub-80F high temperatures on record at Key West is 88 days during the winter of 1901-1902. The second longest such streak is 84 days during the winter of 2010-2011.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.