Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY

E
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

ESE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ042 Forecast Issued: 1017 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS
Overnight...East Winds Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas Building To 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming Choppy. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Decreasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday And Monday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
1017 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

High pressure will build across the Florida Keys marine zones, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes overnight and into the weekend. Breezes will undergo peaks and lulls through at least the end of the weekend, but will generally be moderate.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of June 24, 2021...
- 28 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 11 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 11 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 20 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 19 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 11 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 7 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 8 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1016pm EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

East winds have been slowly increasing this evening, as scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were moving west-northwest across the Straits. The rainfall has been arranged in smaller clusters and more narrow lines than observed this morning. Temperatures were near or just above 80 degrees with dewpoints in the lower 70s.

The high pressure ridge centered east of New England and wedged southwest east of the Appalachians was slotted by a weak low and trough off the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas. An upper shortwave trough was digging over the Florida Panhandle, but not making any eastward progress. A lower tropospheric undulation in the easterlies seemed to be associated with deep convection north and northwest of Havana, although the northbound outflow boundary was already being deformed by the increasing easterlies. The evening sounding in Key West came in tad drier, with precipitable water about a tenth of an inch from the 18Z profile, although nearly as dry above the surface to limit the mixed layer CAPE. CIMMS-Mimic precipitable water estimates showed an even drier airmass poised just to the east, with values near 1.6 inches (or a little less) already west of Andros Island. This seems to coincide with guidance showed significant drying at 700 mb advecting westward into the Straits.

All this to say the current chance Probability of Precipitation look on track, with rainfall more likely to be spotty compared to this morning's coverage.

Marine
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Northeast to east winds 10 to 14 knots along the Reef and the Gulfside are expected to increase over the next few hours, with caution headlines necessary for most waters. From synopsis, High pressure will build across the Florida Keys marine zones, resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes overnight and into the weekend. Breezes will undergo peaks and lulls through at least the end of the weekend, but will generally be moderate.

Climate
The low temperature at Key West International Airport of 73F during a heavy thunderstorm this morning was just 2 degrees away from the daily record low temperature (71F), which was last recorded in 1938.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.