Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast
| Tonight...South To Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest To North Late. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast And Decreasing To Near 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Except Building To Around 2 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light Due To Northwest Swell. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast And Increasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Except 2 To 3 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light Due To Northwest Swell. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Increasing To Near 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop, Becoming A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots, Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday...South To Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Monday Night...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest To West 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Building To Around 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday...Northwest To North Winds Near 15 Knots, Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas Around 2 Feet, Building To 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop, Becoming Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Tuesday Night...North To Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet, Except 6 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 203pm EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .PREVIOUS Issued at 430am EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 CIMSS products continue to show a mean layer ridge in place across much of the area. At the surface, an Atlantic high remains to the east of Bermuda with its western periphery extending westward into Florida and the eastern Gulf. However, there are signs this morning that the ridge is beginning to loosen its grip across the area due to a frontal system approaching from the northwest. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording southeast to south breezes of 10 to 15 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT (Precipitable Water) values between 1 inch and 1.25 inches, though, there is a narrow tongue of 1.3 to 1.5 inches punching northward across the western portions of the Keys. It is interesting how where the higher estimated PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are this morning that there is no activity whereas across the Upper Keys and surrounding nearshore waters, KBYX radar is showing some sprinkles or light shower activity. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mainly stratocumulus traversing across the area leading to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are near 70 degrees with a few areas of lower 70s. .FORECAST... High pressure east of Bermuda will hang on across the area for a little bit longer. However, as a frontal system across the northwestern Gulf continues to trek southeastward through Friday, this will cause the high to retreat farther into the Atlantic. This will lead to the high loosening its grip across the region resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes this morning becoming light to gentle southwesterly breezes this afternoon. As weak and nebulous flow develops for tonight, there may be a time period where breezes become light and variable before becoming west to northwesterly. Moisture slowly increases across the region today continuing into the weekend resulting in rising rain chances. Temperatures will remain quite warm again for at least one more day with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. The pattern begins to change in earnest as we head into Friday. The robust upper level ridge that has been dominating the pattern for the last several days will continue to be flattened as an upper level trough smothers it to the south. This will lead to more upper level troughing across the area with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through the base of this trough. That being said, an unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely, especially over the weekend and into next week. At the surface, a frontal boundary drifting southeastward towards Florida will draw Atlantic and Caribbean moisture northward leading to increased rain chances through the extended. Instability is also expected to increase leading to the potential for thunderstorms beginning Friday continuing through the weekend and into next week. Cloud cover will also increase, especially over the weekend as a result. Some days may be wetter than others, however, it still remains too early to pinpoint the exact details. The main takeaway is expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms in a more widespread fashion beginning Friday night. Since a more unsettled pattern is upon us, the odds are increasing for the Keys and much of Florida to see very beneficial rain over the weekend through mid next week. Dew points will remain quite steady around 70 degrees or so through the period. Looking at the end of the extended, there may be signs of yet another front towards Saint Patrick's Day. However, this is still too far out to hone in on any details at this time. At the very least, there is the potential for cooler temperatures, drop in dew points, breezy conditions, as well as rain chances continuing. Also, the later we get into spring the less likely it will be that these fronts will push through. Stay tuned! Marine Issued at 1104am EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Atlantic will start to pull away while loosening its grip on the Keys. This will promote gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes becoming light to gentle southwesterly breezes this afternoon. A cold front currently draped across the northwestern Gulf and into Dixie Alley will continue to steadily push southeastward into South Florida through the remainder of the week and the weekend. Breezes will shift to the west to northwest sometime tonight with a brief period of light and variable breezes possible. Breezes will quickly clock around the compass becoming east to southeast again by late in the day Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic resumes control. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...None. |
Key West FL Radar
Southeast Radar