Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Tonight...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday...Northeast To East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...Northeast To East Winds Near 10 Knots, Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Except Building To Around 2 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light Due To A Northerly Swell. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop, Becoming Smooth To A Light Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...North To Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Except Around 2 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Except Building To 2 To 3 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...North To Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Except 2 To 3 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Except 2 To 3 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Northeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet, Except Subsiding To Around 2 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 132pm EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 .PREVIOUS Issued at 1100am EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 Composite satellite-derived wind and vorticity analysis places a low- and mid-level inverted trough axis just to the east of the Straits of Florida, along with an upper-level trough across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Owed to the proximity of the inverted trough, KBYX Doppler radar is detecting numerous showers across the Florida Keys and adjacent marine zones. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a unidirectional low-level wind profile, a moisture-enriched lower troposphere, coupled with modest dry air in the 800-650 mb isobaric layer. The forecast calls for continued bouts of generally light to moderate showers throughout the first period, with only slight lightning risk owed to an expanded, tropical tropospheric column and the aforementioned modest dry air aloft. Although total rainfall amounts are not expected to be high today, any quick downpours will exacerbate existing seasonal King Tides and associated coastal flooding throughout the Keys. .FORECAST... Issued at 338am EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 Over the next few days. this non tropical low will slowly drag across our forecast area. CIMSS Vorticity shows stacked energy through the low and mid levels, and this will be the lifting mechanism. Therefore, we will keep Probability of Precipitation fluctuating between 60 and 70 percent through Friday night. Any shower could build enough to be a thunderstorm, but overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated, or slight chance. Global model forecast soundings look a little too wet to support significant thunderstorm coverage. Due to the scattered nature of these showers, it is difficult to narrow in on rainfall amounts. The takeaway is that these showers are coinciding with the King Tide Cycle, and localized flooding could be exacerbated if heavy showers move through during high tide. A deepening trough over the southeastern U.S. will push a frontal boundary down the peninsula, and there is still some question as to where the front ends up. Current guidance suggests we will feel the effects of a prefrontal boundary over the weekend, and dew points may approach the 70s degree mark. Regardless of the numbers, this may be the Keys first taste of Fall-like weather. Marine Issued at 1100am EDT Wednesday Oct 8 2025 A combination of seasonal King Tides, combined with elevated tidal anomalies, will support elevated high tides over the next several days. Mariners should account for less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of the daily higher high tide. From synopsis, an inverted trough will remain in the vicinity of the Florida Keys marine zones over the next several days, supporting bouts of elevated rain chances. The proximity of the trough to the Keys will maintain generally gentle northeast to east breezes through the end of the work week. A developing area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys over the weekend, and also backing winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our eastern marine zones late in the weekend into early next week due to the influence of the low pressure system. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. |
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