Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

MONDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUESDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ042 Forecast Issued: 1032 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

Overnight...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To Near 10 Knots Overnight. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop, Becoming A Light Chop.
Monday...Southeast Winds Increasing To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Moderate Chop.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Decreasing To Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots, Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop, Becoming A Smooth To Light Chop.
Wednesday...Southeast To South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Near 5 Knots, Becoming Variable. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth.
Thursday...West To Northwest Near 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest To North And Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot, Building To 2 To 4 Feet In The Afternoon. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas Building To 3 To 6 Feet In The Afternoon. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop, Becoming Very Rough. Isolated Showers.
Thursday Night...North To Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet, Except 6 To 8 Feet West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore Waters Very Rough.
Friday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Decreasing To Near 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 5 Feet. West Of Cosgrove Shoal Light, Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Subsiding To 4 To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Very Rough.
Friday Night...Northeast To East Winds Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming Choppy.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
429 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

An expansive high pressure system will move southeastward over the western Atlantic before weakening and dissipating on Tuesday. Southeast breezes will freshen up tomorrow before diminishing on Tuesday. The next feature of interest will be a strong cold front that will cross the Florida Keys early Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected Thursday and Friday.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of January 23...
- 52 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 26 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 26 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 17 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 25 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 16 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 10 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 7 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
704pm EST Sunday Jan 24 2021

A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the weather conditions across the Florida Keys. Radar and satellite imagery depict mostly sunny skies across the island chain and surrounding waters with only shallow cumulus clouds over the Straits. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s across the island communities. Rain chances remain nearly nonexistent, which is below the climatological value of about 10 percent for January. A weak cold front has reached southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, but this system is not expected to be a factor in our weather conditions as it is expected to lift northward over the next couple of days.

.FORECAST... An expansive high pressure system currently over North Carolina is expected to move southeastward, enveloping most of the western Atlantic, including the Florida Keys. The presence of this feature will freshen winds across the Straits tomorrow and keep us under a dome of relatively stable weather conditions and rain chances near nil. However, the broad ridge will dissipate on Tuesday and relax its grip on the Florida Keys as a strong low pressure begins to take shape over the southeastern United States. Temperatures across the Keys will continue to increase slowly through Tuesday with highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Moisture will gradually increase on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the strong frontal boundary that is expected to sweep across the island chain. Model guidance indicates that the precipitable water will be around 1.40 inches late Wednesday and early Thursday. This is near the 75th percentile for this time of the year. However, there is going to be little to no support in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere in our area. Thus, rain chances ahead of the front remain near 10 percent. The strong cold front is expected to cross the Keys early Thursday and there is good agreement among the model guidance on the timing and strength. The cold front will be followed by clearing skies and cooler temperatures, with a low near 60 degrees on Friday morning. The strong ridge behind the cold front will also allow for wind gusts near 25 mph across the island communities on Friday morning. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected over the coastal waters for Thursday and Friday.

Marine
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure system will move southeastward over the western Atlantic before weakening and dissipating on Tuesday. Southeast breezes will freshen up tomorrow before diminishing on Tuesday. The next feature of interest will be a strong cold front that will cross the Florida Keys early Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are expected Thursday and Friday.

Climate
In 2003, Key West experienced a very chilly day behind a powerful cold front, with a high temperature of 56F and a low temperature of 45F, both records for the date. Temperature records date back to 1872.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...None.