Marine Weather Net

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

ESE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

E
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

ESE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY


The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ042 Forecast Issued: 933 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
Overnight...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy.
Sunday...East To Southeast Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop.
Sunday Night...East To Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy.
Monday...East To Southeast Winds Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Subsiding To 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light To Moderate Chop.
Tuesday...South To Southwest Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop.
Tuesday Night...Southwest To West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop.
Wednesday...West Winds Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas Building To 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Becoming Choppy. Isolated Showers.
Wednesday Night...Northwest To North Winds Near 15 Knots. Seas 1 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Moderate Chop. Isolated Showers.
Thursday...North To Northeast Winds Near 10 Knots, Becoming East. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Showers.
Thursday Night...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop.
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Synopsis for Keys coastal waters from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas: GMZ005
933 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will lumber a bit to the southeast over the next few days. Moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes are expected across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through Monday. Breezes will turn to the south Tuesday and Tuesday night as the high pressure system recedes east into the Atlantic. A weakening cold front may push through the island chain Wednesday or Wednesday night. Strong westerly breezes are possible Wednesday evening adjacent to the Florida Peninsula, followed by diminished breezes Thursday and Thursday night.

Gulf Stream
The Approximate Shoreward Edge of the Gulf Stream as of March 28...
- 33 NM South of Dry Tortugas Light...on Loggerhead Key.
- 45 NM South of Cosgrove Shoal Light...off the Marquesas Keys.
- 35 NM South of Sand Key Light...off Key West.
- 29 NM South of Looe Key...off Big Pine Key.
- 30 NM South of Sombrero Key Light...off Marathon.
- 18 NM Southeast of Alligator Reef Light...off Islamorada.
- 18 NM Southeast of Molasses Reef Light...off Key Largo.
- 16 NM East of Carysfort Reef Light...off Ocean Reef.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
941pm EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A very strong dome of mid-upper level high pressure is sitting over the Eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula this evening. The observed 500 mb height on the 00z KEY sounding was a whopping 5930 meters, which is very high. In the sounding, this has manifested itself with an uncommonly low subsidence inversion near 2500 ft MSL. The inversion was extremely sharp and strong, with the radiosonde observing a temperature rise of 7C in just 200 feet as the balloon passed through the subsidence inversion. The 850 mb temperature of 22.4C is very warm. It's usually hard to get much cloudiness and almost impossible to get showers with 850 mb temps of that magnitude. No wonder the afternoon cumulus over the islands were so pancake flat today.

High pressure aloft will not let up through Monday, finally showing signs of weakening around Tuesday. So there will be little day-to-day change until then. A surface ridge axis from the Atlantic across Central Florida will continue to support moderate to fresh east-southeast breezes over the waters.

Marine
Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory over the Straits to now include the portion of Hawk Channel adjacent to the Lower Keys, based on 19 kt sustained winds at the land-based Key West Airport. Have also expanded SCEC headlines to include the deep Gulf waters based on sustained 19 kt winds at Smith Shoal Light. In the diurnal ebb and flow of easterly breezes, these winds should reach their late evening peak over the next few hours.

From synopsis, high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda will lumber a bit to the southeast over the next few days. Moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes are expected across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys through Monday. Breezes will turn to the south Tuesday and Tuesday night as the high pressure system recedes east into the Atlantic. A weakening cold front may push through the island chain Wednesday or Wednesday night. Strong westerly breezes are possible Wednesday evening adjacent to the Florida Peninsula, followed by diminished breezes Thursday and Thursday night.

NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ044-052>055-072>075.