Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...East Winds Near 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough. |
| Tonight...East Winds Near 20 Knots, Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Nearshore Waters Rough, Becoming Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming East To Southeast And Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Feet. Nearshore Waters Choppy, Becoming A Light To Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas Subsiding To Around 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. |
| Friday Night...East To Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Seas 1 To 2 Feet. Nearshore Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Saturday Night...East To Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. |
| Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 1 Foot. Nearshore Waters Smooth To A Light Chop. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1111am EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 Issued at 1111am EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 Happy Earth Day! A mostly uneventful morning has been unfolding for the Florida Keys. Skies are mostly sunny apart from a patch of clouds parked over Key West seen on GOES-19 Visible Satelitte. Temperatures across the island chain are nearing 80F as the day continues to warm up. This morning's 12Z KKEY sounding measured over half an inch less of Precipitable Water than yesterday making sense of why we have no showers observed on KBYX today. Along the Reef, easterly winds are near 20 knots. Today is expected to unfold similar to this morning due to high pressure dominating the area; limited shower activity and fresh to occasionally strong breezes. A Small Craft Advisory is still in effect for all of the coastal waters through at least tonight. .PREVIOUS Issued at 439am EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 In the upper levels, mostly zonal flow exists across the Gulf and Florida with ridging dominating the low to mid levels. At the surface, a surface high is centered just off the Carolinas. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes of 20 to 25 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT (Precipitable Water) values ranging from near 1.5 inches across the southwestern portions of the area to 0.8 inches across Florida Bay and the Upper Keys. This is creating for quite the moisture gradient across the Keys early this morning. With that said, KBYX radar has been mostly void of any shower activity overnight. However, in the last hour or so, a few sprinkles have developed across the southwestern distant Straits and along the northern Cuba coastline. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mainly stratocumulus across the Keys giving way to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure off the Carolina Coast is expected to dominate the weather pattern across the Keys for the next several days. Breezy conditions will continue through this evening with gradual slackening thereafter as the high slides further into the western North Atlantic and slowly weakens. Breezes will also shift to the east to southeast. Moisture remains meager for today resulting in a dry forecast. Increasing moisture tonight will re-introduce slight chances to the forecast. In the upper levels, a shortwave trough, currently over South Texas will move across the Gulf today and tonight. As this shortwave approaches the Keys, it is expected to amplify. Therefore, expect increased rain chances for Thursday through Friday as this wave moves through. Most of the ingredients are coming together for this to potentially be a wet period. We will have moisture, instability, and the trigger being the upper level shortwave to instigate more robust convection. There is the chance that a decent portion of the Keys sees beneficial rainfall from this system as it moves through. However, uncertainty still remains on exactly how wet it will be and who this activity will affect. Upper heigheights are expected to rise over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to lift out. However, the Keys will mostly remain in northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant with a weak east to southeast flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s, though, some indications are for it be even warmer than this, rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances are also expected as of now. Marine Issued at 1111am EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure off the Carolina Coast will maintain mainly fresh easterly breezes through this evening with hazardous marine conditions continuing. As the high continues to slowly migrate into the western North Atlantic, breezes will continue to slowly slacken as well as shift to the east to southeast. Weak high pressure maintains control over the weekend promoting light to gentle east to southeast breezes. NOAA Key West FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. |
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