Marine Weather Net

Tampa Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THURSDAY

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ830 Forecast Issued: 252 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Tonight...North Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...East Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Southwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Then Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 20 Knots Diminishing To 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy.
Saturday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.
Saturday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.
Sunday...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Sunday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Monday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
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Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800
252 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Pleasant boating conditions are expected today and tomorrow. A cold front approaches tomorrow night, bringing a potential for rain, higher winds and seas as the weekend approaches. Strong northeast winds will produce advisory conditions on Friday and into Saturday... Calmer conditions return to the area by Sunday. Southeast to south winds will pick up near Cautionary level once again on Monday as high pressure builds off the Carolina coast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
715pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020

More clouds and a few showers expected tonight into Thursday morning as the moist airmass persists and the sea breeze weakens with the light east to southeast flow returning overnight. Winds will shift to southwesterly and increase Thursday afternoon as the next cold front approaches from the northwest. Front moves across the region during Thursday night and early Friday accompanied by a few more showers. Behind this boundary breezy northerly winds will bring much cooler drier air into the area for the end of the week. Overall the current forecast looks on track at this time.

Marine
Pleasant boating conditions are expected through Thursday before the next cold front moves through Thursday night and early Friday bringing increasing winds and seas. Robust northeast winds are expected to produce exercise caution to advisory conditions late Thursday night into Saturday, then winds and seas will subside during Sunday. Early next week southeast to south flow increases once again as high pressure moves out into the western Atlantic Ocean and the next storm system moves into the eastern states.

.Prev /issued 247pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020/

Ridging sprawled across the Florida Peninsula will lead to another day of very humid and above average temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. Thursday into Friday morning, a cold front will push south across the region. A shortwave moving across the Central part of the CONUS will trigger surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast while strong surface high pressure builds across the Middle Mississippi Valley. In between these two features, Florida will receive a fresh north/northeast wind as a strong SE to NE pressure gradient sets up across the Peninsula. The tight gradient will produce strong winds across the waters and as a result, hazardous boating conditions can be expected Friday into the day on Saturday. This wind will also advect much drier and cooler air across the region. While nothing out of the ordinary is expected, we will see much more pleasant temperatures Friday into the weekend with temperatures running 15-20 degrees cooler and lower dewpoints. The Nature Coast will dip into the mid to upper 30s Saturday morning as models have been trending cooler. Some extreme parts of Levy may approach the freezing mark. A rain chance will exist, mostly late Thursday into Friday behind the surface front as the low pulls away from us and stratiform rain wraps around its western flank.

The pleasant weather will quickly fade as southeast flow returns on Monday due to high pressure establishing itself to our northeast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Meanwhile, a shortwave with an associated closed surface low will quickly traverse the Central CONUS. This system will bring our next chance for a cold front and will likely move through the area on Tuesday, bringing an increase in rain chances and cooler weather by the middle of next week.

Fire Weather
Poor overnight dispersions are expected once again tonight with the possibility of fog formation through early morning hours, mostly across Southwest FL. Warm afternoon temperatures with strong mixing through mid week. RHs will remain above critical values as humid airmass remains in place. A cold front will move through tomorrow night which will shift winds out of the north and bring in much cooler/drier air.

NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.