Marine Weather Net

Tampa Bay Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ830 Forecast Issued: 300 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop.
Thursday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Monday...Southwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
245pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026

Issued at 245pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026

High pressure is holding across the region this afternoon with mostly sunny skies and temperatures approaching record highs over inland areas. This high will move out tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the northern parts of the area Thursday morning and move southeast across the area during the day and exiting to the south toward evening. A few showers will linger overnight and we will see some slightly cooler drier air try to move in behind the boundary, but with winds will quickly veer to northeast so this will mainly be noticed across the Nature Coast.

For Friday high pressure will be over the southeast states with an easterly flow across the area. Just enough moisture will remain to allow for isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. Highest rain chances will be over the southern interior and southwest Florida where the moisture will be.

Over the weekend, the high will setup well out in the Atlantic Ocean. An easterly low level flow will be across the region Saturday and with the sea breeze and daytime heating we'll see scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop. On Sunday, the flow shifts to southeast to south bringing deeper moisture north leading to more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. However, with the flow becoming more south to southwest the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

By Monday, the next cold front will be approaching from the northwest and unlike the one tomorrow, this one will usher in some much cooler drier air for a few days next week. More showers and thunderstorms will precede and accompany this front on Monday, then most of the rain chances will come to an end. The exception could be over the southern interior and southwest Florida during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening as there could be just enough moisture for a few showers.

Marine
Issued at 245pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026

Conditions will deteriorate Thursday as a cold front approaches the waters bringing increasing winds and chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Friday, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. A stronger cold front moves through on Monday, increasing winds and seas for the start of next week.

Fire Weather
Issued at 245pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity values stay above critical levels and winds remain less than 15 mph through tonight. Winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will precede and accompany the front Thursday into early Thursday night with moisture lingering through the weekend leading to more diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.