Tampa Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming South Late. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop. Scattered Showers This Morning. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous Showers This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Friday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming South In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...West Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Southwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Saturday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming West In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Sunday Night...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Monday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 706am EDT Thu July 17 2025 Issued at 104am EDT Thu July 17 2025 Surface high pressure will build over the region from the east, with the ridge axis north of the forecast area. This will create south to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula which will hold the west coast sea breeze close to the coast this afternoon. Deep tropical moisture remains over the area, and combination of a conditionally unstable atmosphere and daytime heating will allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon...increasing in areal coverage over the coastal counties during the mid/late afternoon along the west coast sea breeze boundary. Locally heavy rain will be possible, and can't rule out an isolated pulse strong/severe storm. A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula on Friday, and will hold over the region through the weekend. This will create large scale subsidence and above normal temperatures across west central and southwest Florida. Combined with drier air aloft also advecting over the area, this will decrease the chance of rain with below normal POPs each day. The U/L ridge will retrograde west of the area to the Lower Mississippi Valley early next week. Monday will be a transition day as deep layer moisture begins to recover and onshore boundary layer flow becomes established. This will cause highest POPs to shift inland. Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended period as another U/L low may push across the Florida peninsula mid week moving from east to west. This would enhance convective instability across the forecast area increasing POPs and the risk for locally heavy rain. Marine Issued at 104am EDT Thu July 17 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. Winds and seas will remain below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be scattered showers and thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas. Fire Weather Issued at 104am EDT Thu July 17 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories FL...None. Gulf waters...None. |
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