Tampa Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Northwest In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...North Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.|
|Friday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming East After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.|
|Saturday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming North Around 5 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...North Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming East In The Late Evening And Overnight. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming North In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...North Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming East After Midnight. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.|
|Monday...East Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.|
| Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800|
335 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021
A weak cold front moving into the area will stall across the central waters by this evening. Advisory level winds along the boundary over the northern zones will quickly subside by late morning. Scattered showers and storms remain possible through the upcoming weekend, mainly to the south of the frontal boundary, with locally higher winds and seas possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
757am EDT Thu September 23 2021
.Prev /issued 321am EDT Thu September 23 2021/
Early morning IR/water vapor satellite imagery and regional surface observations are showing a weakening cold front pushing southeast into northern Florida. This front is forecast to stall out across central and southern Florida this afternoon and evening and will hold through Saturday before pushing the rest of the way south through Florida late this weekend as strong high pressure develops north of the State.
Slightly cooler air will fill into the Nature Coast behind the front, but the effect will be more subtle from around Tampa Bay south where afternoon max temperatures will remain in the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to around 90 inland through the first half of the week. However, dew points will lower slightly on Friday across central portions of the forecast area, and again across the central and southern zones by Monday after the stalled frontal boundary is pushed away, so the air should at least feel a bit less humid.
Showers and a few storms are already developing over the coastal waters ahead of the frontal boundary and shifting onshore, but rain chances will be significantly lower in the dry airmass behind the front, with minimal rain chances expected over the Nature Coast through the next seven days. However, with the front stalling out later today, scattered to numerous showers should still be possible along and south of Interstate 4 each afternoon through at least Saturday. After the secondary cold front push late in the weekend, rain chances will be lower across the southern half of the area for the first half of next week, but enough moisture will remain for isolated to scattered showers and storms to be possible each day.
A weak cold front pushing southeast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning will stall out across the central and southern coastal zones this evening into the weekend. Wind speeds along this frontal boundary will run around Small Craft Advisory levels through mid morning over the Gulf waters north of Tarpon Springs, then wind speeds should generally subside by this afternoon. Showers and a few storms will continue to be possible along and ahead of the frontal boundary, producing locally gusty winds in the vicinity of the stronger storms. The front will push south of Florida during the second half of the weekend, keeping rain chances low into early next week.
No relative humidity concerns through the rest of the week.
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 6
For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to the link below https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.