Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sunday Night...West Winds 20 To 25 Knots, Becoming North 25 To 30 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet, Building To 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet After Midnight. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, Occasionally To 11 Feet.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250pm EST Fri Dec 8 2023
Broad upper trough currently over the C U.S. expected to move eastward through the weekend while shortwave energy over the Gulf will continue to produce thick cirrus shield over the state. Surface high pressure continues to move further in the W Atlantic as S Plains storm system develops and moves Eward producing SE-S flow over the area with warming and increasing moisture trends through Saturday.
On Sunday, longwave trough to come in phase with southern stream shortwave to further strengthen Deep South storm system that is expected to produce a robust squall line from the FL Panhandle into the C Gulf Saturday Night into early Sunday. Latest global guidance showing best dynamics to lift just N of the CWA (County Warning Area) to limit severe potential and Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorms on day 3 outlook, but if the trough is slow to lift parts of the Nature Coast may have strong to severe storms but there is still uncertainty in that solution and upcoming hi rez guidance should improve confidence either way. What we can expect is much needed rainfall for drought stricken coastal areas as high Probability of Precipitation showers and thunderstorms move ahead of the cold front over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday into Sunday night.
Behind the front strong high pressure will build into the region on breezy NW-N winds and a cold dry airmass will move into the region Sunday night into Monday. Temps to drop below climate averages areawide but freezing temps are not expected at this time.
The frontal boundary is expected to stall in the FL Straits by Tuesday with easterly low level flow as another upper shortwave keeps WSW flow aloft producing and overrunning rain over the S FL Peninsula mid week that is expected to move Nward by late week into C FL as a low pressure area forms along the old frontal boundary for possible rain event late next week into next weekend.
High pressure to move further into the Western Atlantic keeping southeast winds over the E Gulf waters tonight through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday into Sunday night with southwest winds and seas increasing ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will quickly build into the region with very strong NW winds and hazardous elevated seas Sunday night through Monday. Small craft should remain in port until conditions improve Tuesday.
Southeast to south winds will keep the warming and increasingly humid conditions over the area through Saturday. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday into Sunday night with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms pushing across the area. Strong high pressure with cooler and drier air to build into the region with breezy northerly winds for possible fire weather concerns Monday.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.