Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Southeast Around 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Isolated Thunderstorms. Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms Overnight.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming West In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Morning. Numerous Showers. Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Southeast Around 5 Knots In The Late Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming South Around 10 Knots Toward Morning. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Numerous Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Widespread Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots Then Becoming North Around 20 Knots Toward Morning. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Numerous Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Scattered Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...North Winds Around 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Thursday...North Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...North Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Isolated Thunderstorms.|
| Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800|
418 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020
Weak high pressure over the region will keep light winds and slight seas over the waters into Tuesday before a cold front pushes through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with breezy southwest winds developing before shifting to northwest. Winds and seas may reach cautionary levels Tuesday night and Wednesday before diminishing for the remainder of the period. Showers and storms expected over the waters into mid week before drier air mass moves in behind front.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
417am EDT Monday September 28 2020
West/southwest flow aloft over region courtesy of combination of narrow ridge axis aloft over the southern peninsula south of troughing setting up over the eastern CONUS. Weak surface ridging over the western Atlantic extends into the region with light east/southeast flow over the state.
Forecast reasoning remains similar to previous cycles as a potent shortwave drops south across the central CONUS today and Tuesday, then pivots east across the southeast CONUS on Wednesday before ejecting off the eastern seaboard on Thursday. Western Atlantic ridging rebuilds across the peninsula a bit over the weekend although longwave trough axis remains perched over the eastern CONUS into next week. A surface low pressure system develops in response to the shortwave dropping south, which drags a cold front across the peninsula late Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture in place across the area (PW values (Precipitable Water values) over 2 inches) combined with increased lift and divergence aloft in advance of the approaching front will likely lead to areas of heavy rainfall totaling 1 to 2 inches for some locations. Southwest winds increase Tuesday evening before shifting out of the northwest Wednesday morning as cool/dry air mass filters into the peninsula scouring out much of the moisture previously in place. Temperatures and dewpoints bottom out Thursday before moderating through the weekend. Westerly flow aloft looks to remain in place over the region into next week as surface ridging to the north maintains north to northeast winds.
For today expect showers developing offshore early before gradually pushing/expanding ashore during the afternoon with embedded thunderstorms, with greatest coverage interior during the late afternoon and evening. Showers/storms become more numerous Tuesday ahead of the approaching front with greatest rain chances spreading from northwest to southeast across the forecast area through the afternoon and evening. Frontal boundary sags south of the area into Thursday, dragging greatest rain chances to our south that only gradually migrate northwest back into our area late in the weekend and into next week. High temperatures today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, dropping into the mid 70s/low 80s Thursday before returning to the low/mid 80s for the remainder of the period. Overnight lows in the low/mid 70s drop into the mid 50s north to mid 60s south by Thursday before gradually moderating into the mid 60s/low 70s next week.
Weak high pressure over the region maintains light winds and slight seas over the waters into Tuesday before a cold front pushes through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with breezy southwest winds developing before shifting to northwest. Winds and seas may reach cautionary levels Tuesday night and Wednesday before diminishing for the remainder of the period. Showers and storms expected over the waters into mid week before drier air mass moves in behind front.
Abundant low level moisture with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through mid week with no significant fire weather concerns. A cold front will move over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with cooler and much drier conditions mid to late week before moderating slightly through the weekend.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.