Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tonight...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Tuesday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming West Around 10 Knots In The Late Morning And Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Wednesday Night...West Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming South Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Thursday...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To Around 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Friday...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729am EDT Monday May 16 2022
.Prev /issued 345am EDT Monday May 16 2022/
An upper-level low remains over the FL peninsula early this morning. In association with the ever-so-slight instability boost that this low is providing and coupled with the warmer and slightly more unstable conditions closer to the loop current, a couple isolated showers have developed offshore. These showers continue to fall apart as they drift closer to the coast.
In general, the expectation is for fewer storms today. Any that do developed are expected to remain confined to the SE sections of our area and should drift off to the east. Compared to yesterday, SWFL has a slightly better chance for a storm, but that potential still looks rather low overall. The greatest rain chance currently in the forecast anywhere in our region, a 30% chance in SE Highlands County.
The big limiting factor today is the lack of moisture. This lack of moisture and slightly warmer temperatures at 500mb should also keep any risk for stronger storms low today. The GOES-East Mid- Level Water Vapor channel tells a very compelling story. Dry air is wrapping around the upper-level low, flowing across much of the Florida peninsula as it does so. The low should continue to ingest this drier air today, keeping forecast PW values (Precipitable Water values) between 1 to 1.3in for the afternoon. This, along with the exit of the parent trough centered over the Great Lakes, should substantially limit the influence of the low on our weather. Generally, conditions should be warm and dry, but a little breezier perhaps in the afternoon given a slightly tighter gradient.
More dry air and subsidence settles in looking beyond today as well, keeping conditions mostly warm and dry until Friday. However, isolated storms over the interior are not impossible during the afternoon hours each day with sea breeze- driven convergence taking place. Better rain chances return as the weekend approaches and continue into next week with increasing influence from the weaker subtropical ridge (compared to the continental ridge that is expected to influence our weather until then). Additional tropical moisture is likely to accompany this shift, leading to higher rain chances particularly in the afternoon hours, but timing will depend on the exact placement of the ridge (and thus the flow regime) for the day. As we make the transition into the wet season, conditions are starting to look as one would expect for the approaching period.
An isolated storm over coastal waters is not out of the question, but conditions should generally remain dry for the next few days. Westerly winds are expected to increase through the day before quieting overnight, but no headlines are anticipated at this time for coastal waters.
Some good dispersions are possible today and some drier air favors lower RH values away from the coast. However, winds are expected to remain below 15 kts, with no red flag conditions expected. RH values remain on the lower side for the next couple days with a drier weather system overhead. An isolated storm over the interior cannot be ruled out each day, though, and RH values are expected to rebound later in the week.
Prev /issued 140am EDT Monday May 16 2022/
With just a few clouds and light winds, KLAL and KPGD could see some shallow ground fog creating brief impacts particularly near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with westerly winds developing and persisting through the day. A couple isolated storms could develop later today, but any impacts to terminals are unlikely. Calm, quiet conditions are expected once again overnight.
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 8
For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.