Marine Weather Net

Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRIDAY

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

NW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SATURDAY

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ853 Forecast Issued: 249 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020

Tonight...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Scattered Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Friday...West Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. Scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northwest Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth.
Saturday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Saturday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Northeast Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Sunday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming East Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday...East Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Isolated Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Scattered Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Monday Night...North Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming Northeast Around 5 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Isolated Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Then Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Scattered Thunderstorms.
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Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800
249 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

High pressure will keep relatively light winds and seas across the region for the next several days with the sea breeze developing and enhancing the flow near the coast each afternoon. Associated with the land breeze, late overnight through mid morning showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf waters each day, especially tomorrow. No headlines are expected through the period, but of course winds and seas will be locally higher near any showers and thunderstorms.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
621pm EDT Thu August 6 2020

Upper trough from the Great Lakes into the SW Gulf of Mexico as seen in water vapor imagery and upper air plots with S-SW flow over the E Gulf and FL Peninsula. At the surface a weak front has stalled over the N Central Gulf Coast region with weak W Atlantic high pressure extending over the C-S FL Peninsula this evening. These features are keeping the warm and humid summertime conditions in place with light S-SW steering flow pushing the afternoon convection well inland and into E Florida areas. Have updated grids and forecasts to reduce rain chances based on latest radar and satellite trends.

.Prev /issued 205pm EDT Thu August 6 2020/

Ample moisture resides across the Peninsula this afternoon with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) at or above 2 inches. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft are in place today as exhibited from TBW's 12Z sounding showing -7.2C temps at 500mb compared to -5.2C this same time yesterday. This is due to a a weakening/stalling upper level trough that has worked its way into the Central Gulf. We have already seen continuous and sometimes intense thunderstorms all morning over our coastal waters in response to this trough. Along with moderate southerly low-level flow, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to form across the interior this afternoon. Due to the cooler temperatures, would not be surprised to see some of the more intense updrafts to produce a lot of lightning activity in addition to a strong wind gust or small hail. Forecast soundings indicate decent instability will persist after sunset in locations which have not been previously by earlier convection. This will allow storms to last a few hours after sunset before calmer conditions return overnight.

Moving into tomorrow through the remainder of the period, relatively weak flow in the lowest 10k feet will reside over the state as subtropical ridging extends westward into the Gulf. With deep tropical moisture in place, diurnal heating and related sea breeze boundaries will help to initiate scattered/numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Conversely, a late overnight into early morning land breeze will initiate isolated storms out over the eastern Gulf waters each day. Afternoon high temperatures will continue to run 2-3 degrees above normal. Muggy/oppressive dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in afternoon triple digit heat indices that flirt with heat advisory criteria. Regardless if one is issued, please remember to exercise caution if you plan on spending a lot of time outdoors during this Florida summer heat.

Marine Discussion
High pressure will keep relatively light winds and seas across the region for the next several days with the sea breeze developing and enhancing the flow near the coast each afternoon. Associated with the land breeze, late overnight through mid morning showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Gulf waters each day, especially tomorrow. No headlines are expected through the period, but of course winds and seas will be locally higher near any showers and thunderstorms.

Fire Weather
Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning and gusty winds from outflow boundaries. Otherwise, ample low-level moisture will preclude any major fire weather concerns through the period.

NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.