Marine Weather Net

Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

SW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ853 Forecast Issued: 239 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Thursday...Southwest Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.
Thursday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Friday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Friday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop.
Saturday Night...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Sunday...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...Northwest Winds Around 10 Knots Then Becoming North After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Likely After Midnight.
Monday...North Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Light Chop. Showers Likely And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.
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Gulf coastal waters from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River out 60 NM - GMZ800
239 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

High pressure in place will keep pleasant boating conditions over the next couple of days with winds below 15 knots and seas generally 2 feet or less. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the northern half of the Gulf waters tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weakening cold front moves towards the area. Winds and seas will likely remain below headline and advisory criteria through the entire period. However, an area of low pressure moving into the Eastern Gulf will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity by Sunday and this unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
809pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021

.Prev /issued 220pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021/

..LOW HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON... ..UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...

Weak surface high pressure currently resides just off the east coast of FL. The southeast flow has been bringing in slightly higher dewpoints relative to yesterday afternoon, keeping our minimum relative humidity above yesterday's bone-dry values but strong daytime mixing will drop them to around critical thresholds, especially across the interior. Winds are expected to remain below 15 mph sustained, thus precluding any Red Flag concerns. Otherwise, today will be warm and rain free with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A 90 in a few spots isn't impossible. Tomorrow morning will feel a little more mild due to the overnight dewpoints in the 60s areawide... Thursday, a weakening cold front will attempt to work its way down the Peninsula as an area of low pressure moves off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Models continue to pick up on an area of convection firing off across the Panhandle as a very subtle shortwave interacts with a region of low level convergence. This is now evident on several longer range 12Z CAM members including the ARW, NAMDNG25, and NMM. These showers and thunderstorms will weaken as they sag south over the NE Gulf and into our forecast area Thursday afternoon through the evening hours which is supported by 06Z HREF guidance. Still though, portions of the northern Nature Coast have a pretty good shot of rain, and it's possible to see some isolated showers/storms as far south as Tampa Bay by the late evening hours as the NAM maintains the convection longer than some of the other hires guidance... Friday, the aforementioned front will stall out across South Central FL and begin working its way back northward as a warm front. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will once again be possible in the afternoon, mainly in the same region (north of I-4). Overnight Friday into Saturday, lift along with an increase in low-level southerly flow in response to a progressive shortwave over the Central Mississippi Valley will nudge the warm front farther north - across the Big Bend region. This boundary will chill out for a day or two before an area of low pressure forms along its western flank in response to another shortwave moving through Texas. As this feature moves northeast through the Gulf, one can anticipate several days of cloudy and wet weather due to southerly isentropic accent along the diffused frontal boundary.

It's worth mentioning that the GFS also suggests a band of rain more than capable of causing some localized flooding concerns across the Nature Coast as total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast at this time is several inches or more. But why has GFS showing this? Here is my thought...Enhanced low-level convergence will occur Tuesday Afternoon in response to a subtle but deep (vertical continuity) shortwave, latent heat from earlier convection over the Gulf leading to sustained mid-level warm air advection, weak divergence in the upper levels, and the position with respect to the approaching right-entrance region of the jet. All of this supports substantial lift across the Nature Coast, and this has been indicated by pretty high omega values on a north-south cross section of the area... The one perk is that cloud cover will keep temperatures down during this more active period... I also can't rule out a severe threat given the 06Z GFS scenario. Closer to the boundary later on Tuesday (generally north of I-4), MLCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg, around 40 knots of bulk shear, low LCL heights, and 0-1km SRH above 150 m^2/s^2 certainly supports a severe threat including a tornado risk. Now, a person is almost certainly setting themselves up for failure when they discuss 6-7 day severe weather outlooks... But getting the initial grip of the meteorology at play can help to watch for positive or negative trends over the coming days... Just know, it's going to rain on you some of the time or all the time, it'll be cloudy, and we'll have cooler high temperatures during the afternoons because of this. Keep an eye out for specifics (i.e. flood and/or severe threat) as we head into the weekend and get a better idea of the hazards we'll be dealing with.

Marine Discussion
High pressure in place will keep pleasant boating conditions over the next couple of days with winds below 15 knots and seas generally 2 feet or less. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the northern half of the Gulf waters tomorrow afternoon and evening as a weakening cold front moves towards the area. Winds and seas will likely remain below headline and advisory criteria through the entire period. However, an area of low pressure moving into the Eastern Gulf will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity by Sunday and this unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the week.

Fire Weather
Minimum relative humidity values will once again drop near or below critical thresholds today due to strong mixing. Next chance for wetting rains arrive by Thursday afternoon for the Nature Coast, and not until Monday for areas south of I-4.

NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.