Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Winds Around 5 Knots. Seas 2 Feet Or Less. Bay And Inland Waters Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Areas Of Fog.|
|Monday...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Areas Of Fog In The Morning.|
|Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northwest 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters Choppy.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
|Friday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet. Bay And Inland Waters A Moderate Chop.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
835pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 204pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
The next 24 hours or so look pretty active. A negatively tilted trough axis is propagating through the Great Lakes region, with the amplification of the upper-level flow pushing the ridge axis south. An area of considerable cloudiness continues across the FL panhandle and Big Bend region ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, along with a line of storms that is approaching the peninsula from the west. This line continues to have good forward momentum, suggesting that storms will make it to the coast around Tampa Bay in the next hour or two. Even SWFL could see some storms later, but the overall likelihood is lower as the line becomes increasingly outflow dominant.
This line has raced well out ahead of the surface front, with the driving force being the warm, humid, and unstable airmass and it's own cold pools. In response, this should fall apart as it continues to become farther removed from the front, but also once diurnal heating begins to wane a little later today. This means that even more moisture will be present with a light S to SSW flow overnight again tonight. This combo favors fog once again tonight. Even now, sea fog/mist is still being observed along the coast.
Considering these factors, it could be another night where fog sets in early and becomes fairly dense by 4AM to 6AM, being slow to clear until daytime heating and winds start to increase late morning. Once that happens, some additional instability along and just ahead of the frontal boundary (which will finally be approaching our coast by later in the day), there could be few additional sprinkles tomorrow across the area under mostly cloudy skies. Once the front passes, though, that all begins to change.
(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 204pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
Behind the front, winds shift to a northerly flow, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass that becomes even cooler and drier as additional trough axes propagate through the flow, keeping the mid- level pattern amplified. This should lead to a pretty mild week after tomorrow. Daytime highs remain in the 60s and 70s until Saturday as morning lows hang out in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. The coldest morning of the week looks to be Thursday. There is now about a 50% chance of freezing temperatures across the Northern Nature Coast for Thursday morning.
By the weekend, conditions will begin to modify as the flow veers to the east. There are some low 80s on the map for Saturday south of I- 4. However, this appears short-lived as additional shortwave energy and then another trough start to knock on our door by the end of the weekend. Cooler air could be back in the forecast once again next week.
Issued at 204pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
A line of storms is pushing through coastal waters, producing gusty winds up to around 20 knots. This may create locally hazardous seas in the vicinity. Additionally, some sea fog/mist is continuing to linger in nearshore coastal waters as well, with some reduction to visibility. Once storms wind down this evening, sea fog may return again for nearshore waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. This is likely to linger through tomorrow morning and maybe even a little longer, until a cold front pushes through with cooler and drier air settling in to clear any remaining fog. Outside of storms, winds remain around 15 knots or less.
Issued at 204pm EST Sunday Dec 3 2023
Fog is expected overnight and is the only fire weather concern through tomorrow with ample moisture and humidity remaining otherwise. Cooler and drier air will return to the area behind the front for mid-week as winds turn northerly.
NOAA Tampa FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM.