Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
707am EDT Sunday September 22 2019
Temperatures will gradually warm through early this week. Jerry will pass well offshore into mid week, while a weak cold front drops into the Carolinas. The weather will become summer-like late week, with unseasonably warm and humid conditions.
Near Term - Through Monday
Surface high pressure weakly extended over the area will retreat seaward today, bringing about a veering but light wind profile, from SE to S to SW, today through tonight. The frail return flow will raise dewpoints several degrees the next couple days, with strong temperature climbs into the middle 80s inland this afternoon under unabated radiation. Max-Ts a few degrees warmer Monday, as it appears an element of down-slope low-level wind flow will be present, offering an added layer of adiabatic warming, to already warm air under mainly sunny skies.
A few afternoon cumulus are expected today, a little moreso Monday, but moisture remains too shallow to introduce a chance of measurable rainfall. The weak pressure gradient about the area the next few days will result in light winds, and recent 10-meter wind model output, shows 7 knots or less through Monday, aside from slight sea breeze enhancement near shore in afternoon, as land temps exceed SSTs.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
Mid to upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes Monday night into Tues will push a cold front through the Carolinas. This front will lose substance as it comes against ridge extending up across the Southeast CONUS. Moisture profiles and soundings do show an increase in moisture through the column between 4k and 10k ft, enough to support some passing clouds, overnight into up through daybreak, but enough dry air and subsidence aloft should keep any showers at bay. Front will be exiting off the coast through Tues morning, with winds shifting around from SW to a more NW to N direction, but very light. At the same time, Jerry will be passing well off to the east, up around Atlantic ridge. Weak high pressure will build in behind front through Tues as weakened boundary shifts farther south. Aside for some cu Tues afternoon. front should move through unnoticed. Temps will be in the mid to upper 80s Tues, with lows in the mid 60s Monday night and Tues night.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Mid to upper ridge gets suppressed farther south on Wednesday with a minor perturbation possibly providing enough support for clouds and a stray shwr Wednesday afternoon. GFS has been showing weak wave of low pressure along lingering front to the south and increasing moisture as flow comes back around to the south as high pressure off shore begins to dominate. The ridge builds back over the Southeast in force Thurs into the weekend with H5 heigheights rising up to 595 dem over the Carolinas Fri into Sat. This will help to push temps well above normal and keep any convection at bay. Therefore only chance of pcp should be on Wednesday afternoon. although the GFS is hinting at another front or trough dropping south on Fri. Otherwise a warm and more humid air mass in place with temps soaring up around 90 away from the beaches with some morning fog possible and afternoon cu mixing with the sunshine. Warm nigheights expected with temps closer to 70.
A favorable marine period for small craft, as very little wind-sea present in the wave spectrum, only a little wind-chop inshore during the afternoons today and Monday, as a weak sea breeze circulation fires up for several hours. Weak long period swell waves will be sustained, as what is left of Humberto's backswell fades, and becomes replaced by Jerry's long-period wave energy. This will result in seas about 3 feet every 14 seconds or so by late Monday, all in swell, which may produce standing wave turbulence in area inlets during an outgoing tide, at times. Wind-seas and wind-waves to remain minimal this period with no TSTMs over the 0-20nm waters.
A weak and dry front will approach from the NW Monday night into Tues while Jerry passes by well east of the waters. This should kick S-SW winds up a bit late Monday and should swing winds around to a more off shore direction on Tues. High pressure will shift just east of the local waters and dominate Wednesday through the remainder of the week with southerly winds around 10 to 15 kts. Seas will increase up to 3 to 4 ft Monday night into Tues. Overall expect seas in the 2 to 4 ft range with longer period SE swells mixing in.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.