Marine Weather Net

Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ254 Forecast Issued: 631 AM EST Sun Mar 03 2024

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING
Today...Ne Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Areas Of Dense Fog This Morning. Patchy Fog Early This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less Until Late Afternoon.
Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Mon...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
948am EST Sunday Mar 3 2024

Synopsis
Cloudy and mild weather will continue over the next several days. An area of low pressure moving up the coast will bring some rain chances on Monday. Another low passes well to our north bringing a wet Tuesday night into Wednesday. One last system will bring unsettled weather late Friday or Saturday.

Low-level moisture is quite abundant this morning, per CHS/MHX 12Z soundings. Extensive cloud cover should persist today, although visibilities across the Pee Dee and into Robeson county will continue an upward trend. Therefore will allow the Dense Fog Advisory for inland areas to expire at 10 AM. A bit more uncertainty exists across the coastal waters, where a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is also set to expire at 10 AM. Our limited views along the beaches indicate that visibilities have risen above DFA thresholds, so current thinking is to allow this advisory to also expire on schedule, and address any lingering concerns with a Marine Weather Statement if necessary.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Sunrise will reveal a lovely collection of radiation fog, sea fog, low stratus, and dense cirrus across the area. As the early boundary layer matures, fog will devolve into low clouds inland and should encompass most of the area by midday.

Low pressure developing offshore will lead to strengthening onshore flow and moisture advection throughout the boundary layer. Over portions of SC, this deep layer could produce isolated showers this afternoon. These would be light showers in shallow, convective-type clouds. Not much in the way of rainfall is expected. The warm air that treated the eastern half of the CWA (County Warning Area) yesterday should be more widespread today despite the slight increase in NE winds. Onshore flow may keep coastal areas a degree or two cooler.

Moisture advection becomes widespread this evening and overnight as the offshore low matures. Rain chances increase after midnight, mainly for coastal SC and southeastern NC east of I-95. The depth of moisture is slightly more pronounced as low level flow wraps onshore around the center. The better rainfall chances and higher rain rates will be confined to the immediate coast. Mild again overnight with lows in the mid 50s.

Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Models trending a little bit wetter on Monday as a weakly closed mid level low lifts north across the area. As it does so it develops a surface and low level reflection that should manage to advect enough moisture ashore for some light rain, favoring the immediate coastal counties (with a further favoring of NC over SC counties at that). Dry air advects into the area behind this system with PW values (Precipitable Water values) dropping from 1.3" to about 0.7" and Tuesday should allow for a return of sunshine. The added insolation should lead to highs in the mid 70s away from the water where cool SSTs in the mid 50s will temper the warmth. The trying trend reverses Tuesday night, PW values hitting 1.5" by 12Z Wednesday leading first to an increase in cloud cover and then some light rain that should spread north across the region as low pressure approaches from the west.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Warm advection rains will still be around early Wednesday. Some guidance hinting at a decrease in coverage and intensity as the day wears on but for now will stick with the slower timing of prev fcst/ECWMF that holds off drying trends until Wednesday night. Surface high builds in from the north Thursday while mid level flow transitions to a broad, low amplitude ridge. Late period timing of next system is a bit uncertain as a few shortwaves will be acting together to create an amplified trough to our west, the southernmost of which could be driving low pressure and warm advection rain our way. Will maintain POPs as early as Friday but Friday night into Saturday looks like the better bet for meaningful rain chances.

Marine
Through Tonight
NE flow should bring an end to dense sea fog this morning, although dew point depressions indicate some patchy sea fog may persist into the afternoon. As low pressure develops offshore today, showers and storms will become more numerous. Heavy rain at times may also limit visibility. NE flow increases tonight as the low matures, but should remain around 15 knots. Seas generally around 3-4 feet after this morning.

Monday through Thursday...Low pressure moves north across the area early Monday. This could lead to some light and variable winds early on but a northerly component will come to dominate behind the system by midday or afternoon. An ESE swell component will still be dominant wave keeping seas elevated to 4-5 ft above the smaller wind wave supported by wind speeds of 10-15kt. Gradient weakens Tuesday for lighter winds but 1028 mb high well offshore still steering swell energy into the Southeast. Low pressure moving NE well to our NW turns winds more southerly Wednesday and a few 6 ft waves likely to start affecting at least (northern) part of the area and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seems possible though confidence is a bit low. Veering to NW and then NE slated for Thursday. Wind wave component should decrease enough for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to drop out and the long SE fetch will be interrupted for a decrease in swell energy.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EST this morning for NCZ087-106- 108-110. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-054-056.

Marine
Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EST this morning for AMZ250-252- 254-256.