Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
716pm EDT Monday September 25 2023
On Tuesday a cold front will bring breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures in for the remainder of the week as high pressure over Canada builds southward. Scattered showers will become possible behind the front, especially near the coast.
Only minor tweaks made to previous forecast. Increased patchy fog and low stratus potential for early tomorrow, especially
Near Term - Through Tuesday
A weak cold front will slowly traverse the region from north to south, and by Tuesday afternoon, the front will be just south of the forecast area. The NAM 3km/12km and GFS (Global Forecast System) hint at isolated showers and/or thunderstorms south of a line from Surf City, NC, to Kingstree, SC. BUFR soundings show that the low-level moisture is not that deep. So, isolated coverage should suffice for Tuesday afternoon. A few areas of patchy fog are possible, mainly after 2 AM, and any fog that does develop is expected to dissipate quickly after sunrise.
Low temperatures tonight are expected in the lower 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s at the coast. The highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night
At the start of the period a cold front should hang around just south of the area, perhaps stalling for a while, before it continues south through Wednesday morning. For this reason isolated showers could linger along the coast and in our far southern SC counties. Went only slightly cooler in our far northern areas with highs on Wednesday as Cold Air Advection slowly seeps in, winds aloft not really looking to turn around to the north until Wednesday night when Canadian high pressure really starts to ridge down from the north. That cooler, drier mid level air will knock PWATs (Precipitable Waters) to near 1" through the short term with near 1.5" lingering by the coast. Enough weak forcing around the area warrants a mention of shower chances where that deeper moisture is but coverage should be low.
Lows in the low to mid 60s, a bit cooler Wednesday night. Cloudiness may hinder radiational cooling Wednesday night but with the wind shift aloft the low forecast may be a bit tricky. Can't say that upper 50s aren't possible for our inland areas. Highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
A large amplitude ridge will set up over the LMVR, building north towards the Midwest wedged between two large amplitude troughs over either coast. The general story looks to be that this ridge will continue to amplify through the weekend. The GFS seems set on the east coast trough becoming an upper level low over the Atlantic (and perhaps even a surface low towards the end of the period as of this latest run...) but the Euro seems to keep it more as an elongated trough. Especially towards the start of next week the models differ on placement of this feature, making the forecast a bit tough. In general, moisture does look to decrease headed into the weekend, so lowered POPs to slight chance along the coast. Breezy NE winds should linger through the period as surface high pressure prevails.
Highs in the upper 70s, lower 80s. Lows in the lower 60s, possibly dipping into the 50s as the cool high pressure center moves towards the area headed into next week.
Through Tuesday... A slow-moving cold front will cross the coastal waters from north to south. The frontal boundary is expected to move into the coastal waters near Surf City around midnight and shift south of the South Santee River around sunrise.
Ahead of the front, south-southwest winds of 6 to 10 knots are expected. The wind will shift to the north-northeast at 5 to 10 knots Tuesday morning; by the afternoon, the wind speeds will reach 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are expected to be 2 to 3 feet with a few 4-footers at 10 to 20 miles off the coast between Surf City and Frying Pan Shoals by Tuesday afternoon. An east-southeast swell of 2.5 feet at 8 seconds is expected through Tuesday Night.
Tuesday Night through Saturday... A cold front should be south of the area by the start of the period, perhaps stalling slightly before moving away into Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure will ridge down from the north where it should remain through the end of the period, maintaining breezy NE'ly winds with gusts near 20-25 kt. Seas will be 3-5 ft with a building NE'ly swell. Confidence is low at this time on SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas towards the end of the period but it may be possible.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9pm EDT this evening for NCZ107.