Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1003am EDT Fri August 12 2022
A cold front will cross the region later today with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening. High pressure will bring a sunny and less humid weekend. A cold front approaches the coastal Carolinas late Monday which brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Have increased probability of precipitation basically across the board based on current radar trends and near term/high resolution guidance. Seems all guidance is showing this cluster and or broad line remaining intact through the area this afternoon basically boosted by the mid level shortwave diving through the Ohio Valley southward.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Shortwave digging down into the Southeast will push a cold front through the Carolinas later today. Front should reach near the I-95 corridor by early to mid afternoon, clearing the coast this evening. Southwest winds ahead of the front will veer to the west through today and then NW to N behind front into this evening. Column moisture will increase with pcp water values reaching above 2 inches late this morning. Instability remains elevated into this morning but expect increasing rain chances with embedded thunderstorms by late morning into early this afternoon as front reaches into area. Portions of the area should see decent Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts, especially along the coast this afternoon in heavier rain showers as winds shift more SW with better convergence in place. Cloud cover should hold temps down about 10 degrees lower than yesterday, with lower 80s most places, which should act to limit instability.
Drying through the column will take place into this evening with plenty of mid to upper level drying, but soundings and moisture profiles show decent amount of lingering low level moisture into late this evening with clearing mainly after midnight toward early Sat morning when pcp water values drop down closer to 1 inch. Temps will drop into the mid 60s for lows.
Short Term - Saturday Through Sunday Night
The synoptic scale mid and upper level trough remains off the east coast through the short term forecast. The deep atmospheric moisture is shunted to the south with precipitable waters less than 1" over the coastal Carolinas. These low values fall close to the 10th percentile of the climatological average. This drier air will be short lived high moisture works it way back into the area late Sunday night.
At the surface the cold front will shift well south of the forecast area and will remain to the south. No precipitation is expected except for an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the southern half of Georgetown county early Saturday.
The big impact will be the temperatures. The highs will be in the middle 80s on Saturday and the middle to upper 80s on Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the middle 60s inland with lower 70s at the beaches. The humid air will be displace to the south with afternoon dewpoints ranging between upper 50s to lower 60s.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The mid and upper level trough will remain over the eastern third of the United States through Friday. The area will be under northwest flow through the period with several short-wave troughs passing across the area. A cold front in the upper plains will push toward the Carolinas late Monday into Tuesday. This front will stall just to the south and east of our area. Chances of showers and thunderstorm return late Monday with the best chances Monday afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. Then only isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible the last half of next week.
Maximum temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s and lows will range from the middle and upper 60s to low to middle 70s at the beaches.
Through Tonight: Southwest winds will become more westerly into this afternoon as cold front approaches from the W-NW. Winds will then become lighter and more variable as front moves through late this afternoon into early this evening with a fairly abrupt shift to the N behind it this evening as high pressure begins to build in from the north. Seas 3 to 4 ft will increase slightly into late this afternoon before dropping into Saturday.
Saturday through Tuesday: A cold front will push offshore with northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots through first half of Sunday. Winds will begin to veer to the east late Sunday and then to the south-southwest around 10 knots.
Seas are expected to run around 2 to 3 feet through Sunday and 1.5 to 2 feet Monday and Tuesday. A southeast swell of 1 to 1.5 feet is expected Saturday through Tuesday.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories