Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1236pm EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Synopsis Strong high pressure to the north will weaken and give way to weak low pressure near the coast early in the work week with gradually warming temperatures into mid week. A strong cold front will then likely move through Thursday bringing good rain chances and much colder temps to follow later in the week. No changes to the current forecast package. Near Term - Through Tonight Tightening pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the northeastern US and low pressure near the Bahamas has kept temperatures in the mid to low 40s overnight. An exiting plume of upper level moisture will allow skies to clear for a couple of hours before and after sunrise. Temperatures over our inland area will bottom-out in the upper 30s while breezy coastal regions hold steady in the low 40s. Mid level clouds increase late this morning as flow turns easterly. Clouds are likely to keep temperatures around or slightly cooler than yesterday. Intermittent sunshine this afternoon could provide an opportunity for a quick warmup, but difficult to say how much of an impact this would have given weak cold air advection and low sun angles. Onshore flow will keep coastal communities slightly cooler with ocean temps in the low to mid 50s. Latest HREF and NAM hint at trapped low level moisture creating a low cloud deck near and west of the I-95 corridor after 14Z. This would keep temperatures below the previous forecast with highs only in the lower 50s. Have tried to capture this scenario with today's forecast (highs in the mid 50s), but a delayed arrival of clouds would allow inland area to reach upper 50s instead. Wedge setup onset is typically a headache from a temperature and aviation perspective, but this seems to be the best solution at this time. Coastal trough offshore will maintain periodic showers over the offshore waters this afternoon. Strengthening flow out of the NE will push these close to the coast late this morning and early this afternoon. Dry air in the lowest few thousand feet will keep the area dry, but can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle for Bald Head, Kure Beach, Carolina Beach where some mechanical convergence could eek out some liquid precip. Rain chances generally less than 10%. Continued onshore flow overnight and boundary layer mixing will keep temperatures on the upper end of the ensemble distribution. Lows around 40 for the I-95 corridor, low 40s for the eastern coastal plain, and mid 40s at the coast. Showers increase over the offshore waters overnight and will stay offshore, however associated cloud cover will maintain overcast skies. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Highlights: *Mostly dry w/ mainly above normal temperatures Confidence: *Moderate to High, except Low to Moderate regarding temps Sun Details: Expect mostly dry conditions this period due to the high pressure wedge pattern in place, especially into early Monday before it begins to weaken later Mon/Monday night w/ a coastal trough developing off the Southeast U.S. coast. The prevailing onshore winds could bring a few showers to mostly coastal areas w/ a bit more forcing and moisture Monday night possibly leading to bit better rain chances farther inland. However, no significant rainfall is anticipated through the period at this point. Temperatures will generally be above normal through the period, although could stay closer to normal, or even a bit below normal inland, on Sunday when the wedge will be strongest. Temps well inland closer to I-95 could end up staying in the 40s depending on how cloud cover plays out. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Highlights: *Mainly dry w/ above normal temps through Wed *Cooler w/ increased rain chances Wednesday night/Thu *Much colder and drier Thu night/Fri Confidence: *Moderate to High through Wednesday and Fri *Low to Moderate Wednesday night through Thu night Details: A coastal trough should linger offshore until a cold front moves through, most likely on Thu. Increased moisture and forcing Wednesday night into Thu will yield decent rain chances and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder. We trended rain chances down Thu night as the front should have passed through by then but some upper energy could still be moving through so kept some small rain chances due to this and potential frontal timing changes. Cool, dry high pressure will then return to round out the rest of the work week. Temps will be above normal at least through Wednesday night, possibly into Thu depending on the frontal passage timing. Below normal temps are expected Thu night/Fri. Marine Through Tonight Strong high pressure over the northeastern US will maintain strong winds and hazardous conditions through Sunday morning. Winds will increase this afternoon as a surge of NE winds reaches our coast; winds 25 knots with gusts exceeding 30 knots and 6-10 foot seas. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions persist overnight, winds around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. NE/E wind wave and swell combine for a messy sea state through the weekend. Wind waves around 3-5 feet and 6-7 seconds today will be replaced with 6-8 foot swell of around 11-12 seconds overnight. Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure centered off to the northeast will prevail into Monday before a coastal trough develops off the Southeast U.S. coast. A weakening/stalling cold front also looks to approach from the north Tuesday before dissipating Wed. The enhanced pressure gradient will lead to elevated winds through the weekend before they weaken starting Sunday night but it will take longer for seas to subside. Thus, the ongoing Small Craft Advisory will likely run through Monday night. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. |
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