Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Pm...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E Late. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms Early In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 309pm EDT Wednesday April 23 2025 Synopsis A front will remain stalled across the region through Thursday bringing unsettled weather. The boundary will lift north on Friday brining a downturn in rain coverage before a cold front Saturday kicks up the coverage again. After a Sunday cooldown next week will feature a gradual rain-free warmup. Near Term - Through Thursday Expect a pretty active period the next 36 hours with deep moisture in place and a few boundaries in the area (stalled front, sea breeze, and differential heating). However, not confident in development of widespread rainfall at any one time. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal at best and varying amounts of cloud cover have limited SBCAPE to around 1000 J/kg(with a few higher pockets) this afternoon and similar values are expected for Thu. There was a little more dry air in the low levels this morning based on 12Z soundings from CHS/MHX than what guidance was anticipating which likely led to the slightly delayed start. Not expecting this to be much of an issue for Thu, but something to look for. Storms that do develop will be capable of producing good rainfall rates. Precipitable water is at or above the 90th percentile pretty much through Thu. The freezing layer between 11k-12k ft will allow for a deep warm cloud layer as the low levels moisten up and LCLs lower. There will be some weak shortwave influence, although it's weak enough that by itself it may not be able to generate any convection but it will help maintain storms that do develop. What has happened this afternoon, development of isolated storms along the boundaries with additional storms developing as outflow from the first round kicks off additional storms, is likely again on Thu. Although instead of the sea breeze being favored inland SC may be the more favored location. Coverage will continue to expand as new storms Probability of Precipitation up on outflow into the evening hours (today and Thu) before convection starts to weaken and dissipate in response to decreasing instability. It may be a case where the hourly Probability of Precipitation is too high yet the Probability of Precipitation across a longer time frame is too low. Rainfall amounts will be quite variable too given the convective nature of the activity. Temperatures will continue to run on the warm side of normal with highs ranging from mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night Mid level trough cuts off over NYS on Saturday, its trailing trough helping to push a cold front through the Carolinas. Models are surprisingly meager in their Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, which may adjusted in the future, and have kept the inherited high chance to low likely POPs at this time given that the front itself has a good amount of baroclinicity for later in April. To that end the airmass change will be quite noticeable by Sunday and Sunday night. The remainder of the period features high pressure overhead early Monday shifting offshore to a true warm season position thereafter. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday Mid level trough cuts off over NYS on Saturday, its trailing trough helping to push a cold front through the Carolinas. Models are surprisingly meager in their Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, which may adjusted in the future, and have kept the inherited high chance to low likely POPs at this time given that the front itself has a good amount of baroclinicity for later in April. To that end the airmass change will be quite noticeable by Sunday and Sunday night. The remainder of the period features high pressure overhead early Monday shifting offshore to a true warm season position thereafter. Marine Through Thursday... Ill-defined gradient will persist over the waters through Thu as Bermuda High remains the main feature. Enhancement of onshore flow each afternoon and evening in response to the sea breeze is expected, but otherwise winds will generally be 10 kt or less with an easterly component. This will keep seas around 2 ft with the dominant wave being an easterly swell. Thursday night through Monday... Not much of a gradient in place to start the period meaning light winds with some sense of directional variability before a southerly component comes to dominate even if only weakly. Wind waves then could fall below the 7-9 second E to SE swell in regards to power. SW flow picks up Saturday as cold front approaches, flow then turning to N and NE on Sunday steepening wave faces as period shorten. Considerable veering on Monday as the post- frontal high starts overhead but progresses offshore rather quickly. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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