Marine Weather Net

Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ254 Forecast Issued: 629 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
632am EDT Monday May 16 2022

Synopsis
Expect more typical summer-like weather across the Carolinas today with much warmer temperatures. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late today and tonight with slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Much warmer weather is expected mid to late week with mostly dry conditions.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Upper trough and surface cold front will approach the area today and move offshore throughout the course of this evening. The convergence along this front and the forcing associated with the upper trough are expected to produce two distinct rounds of convection this afternoon. The first round will be along the sea breeze with the focus set to extreme northeastern SC and southeastern NC where the coastline shape will bring some 'natural' surface convergence. Dry air both near the surface and aloft should keep thunderstorm coverage to isolated or widely scattered. Strong low-level lapse rates and mixing of some dry air aloft ahead of the sea breeze may allow for some isolated strong wind gusts with these storms. Shear values and storm motion also support the probability of isolated severe weather if any worthy storms develop.

Regardless of storm chances, winds along the coast could gust up to 25 mph with the tightening gradient ahead of the front. This has prompted a High rip current risk at our south-facing Brunswick County NC beaches and a high probability of a strong south to north longshore current north of the Cape Fear. A Moderate Risk of rip currents exists for all of our east-facing beaches on Monday.

The second round of convection will be along the cold front as it moves across the NC/SC Piedmont later in the afternoon or early evening. Accordingly, the best chance of seeing any showers or thunderstorms will be along the I-95 corridor. This is also where a chance of isolated severe weather exists with a more organized line of storms being maintained by better shear and elevated instability. The dry air aloft and storm motion may allow for strong, damaging wind gusts or some large hail. Confidence in these showers and storms is low at this time given the potential for earlier outflows and mid-level lapse rates over eastern NC/SC to spoil storm maintenance in the event that the line is unable to organize itself over central NC during the late afternoon.

Winds become northerly overnight behind a cold front as slightly cooler and drier weather arrives. Temperatures fall into the lower 60s overnight with a few upper 50s inland and dew points falling into the 50s. Skies clear late setting up another brief period of dry weather.

Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
Flat flow aloft will keep deep west to northwest flow in place through Wednesday night. This will prevent any significant moisture return and lead to some downslope flow, helping to dry out the low levels. Weak cold advection comes to an end by midday Tuesday as clear skies and downslope component helps modify the air mass. Highs Tuesday end up a little above climo with the sea breeze pinned close to the coast. Highs Wednesday a couple degrees warmer than Tuesday as air mass continues to modify and low level warm advection around the west side of the surface high kicks in. West to northwest flow continues above the boundary layer with minimal increase in low level moisture given the short duration and the generally weak nature of the southerly flow at the surface. Sea breeze will help increase moisture closer to the coast, especially Wed. Afternoon humidity of 20 to 30% will be possible outside of the sea breeze both Tuesday and Wed. Lows near climo Tuesday night will run above climo Wednesday night.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Progressive mid-level pattern Thu will transition to ridging as 5h ridge builds over the western Atlantic. The ridge will start to fade by the weekend with the axis moving offshore ahead of a mid-level trough over the central CONUS. Subsidence around the periphery of the ridge will lead to temps well above climo for the end of the week, bringing 2022s first real heat wave, albeit abbreviated. As the ridge axis is offshore it will not be a clean ridge with varying amounts of mid and upper level moisture moving up the west side of the ridge. Despite some cloud cover highs will be well into the 90s away from the coast with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Fri is the only day where it appears the subsidence will be too strong for any convection to develop. Thu and Sat diurnal instability, the Piedmont trough and slightly higher moisture will allow for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Best chance may end up being Sunday as the Piedmont trough moves to the coast and interacts with the sea breeze while a cold front is moving in from the northwest.

Marine
Through Tonight: Winds increase today as the gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Expect borderline SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to develop this afternoon. SW winds will increase to 15 kts with gust up to 20-25 kt. Seas will increase from 2 to 4 ft up to 3 to 5 ft today with the continued SE swells at 8 seconds along with shorter period wind wave chop. Winds and seas quickly recover overnight, becoming offshore around 10 knots. Seas lag slightly in recovery around 3 feet by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday: Weakening northerly flow Tuesday morning quickly becomes southerly as Bermuda High expands west later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Southwest flow continues through Fri with Piedmont trough and sea breeze helping enhance speeds in the afternoon and evening. Southwest flow will range from 10 to 15 kt to 15 to 20 kt at times, strongest Thu and Fri afternoon/evenings. Seas 2 to 3 ft Tuesday and Wednesday build to 3 to 4 ft Thu/Fri in response to increased southwest flow. Dominant wave will be a southeast wind wave along with an east to southeast swell.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ110.

Marine
None.