Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming E 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Se Winds 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 407am EDT Thu September 12 2024 Synopsis Dry weather expected for the majority of the day today despite onshore winds and increasing humidity. Rain chances return tonight and increase through the weekend as moisture spreads north across the southeastern US. A subtropical storm could impact the area early next week. Near Term - Through Tonight High pressure centered east of Cape Cod continues to build down the coast today under the weakening mid-level ridge. Dry air continues to linger in the region, although precipitable water will gradually increase later today and especially tonight. This setup is much more common during the cooler months. A high to the north building down the coast promoting northeast to east winds at the surface under moist east to southeast flow aloft. The loss of mid-level ridging will allow for a rapid increase in moisture aloft late today into tonight. The largest amount of uncertainty with this setup is related to rain chances and timing. In a wedge scenario rain typically takes longer to develop given the abundance of dry air and much of the 00Z guidance has delayed onset of rain until after midnight. The bulk of the rain is likely to be confined to the coast. Another big question mark is down to rainfall totals through tonight. Some of the convective allowing models have rainfall in excess of 1 inch moving onshore after midnight, but the bulk of the guidance has much lower totals. In fact some of the better performers have minimal rainfall moving onshore before 12Z Fri. This is a portion of the forecast that could see some significant changes with the next few iterations. Temperatures will end up near to slightly below climo. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night Wedge of high pressure will continue on Friday as onshore flow produces showers across the area, primarily along the coast and inland NC near the I-95 corridor. Isentropic lift will be maximized during the late morning and afternoon as peripheral energy and moisture from Francine lifts northward across the region. High pressure over the northeastern US will maintain easterly flow and cooler temperatures in conjunction with clouds and precipitation on Friday; highs around 80 degrees. Rain chances continue along the coast overnight while activity becomes more isolated inland. Lows in the upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. High pressure retreats northward on Saturday resulting in a weakening wedge. Slightly warmer on Saturday with highs in the lower 80s. Rain chances continue to be focused along the coast for Saturday, but scattered showers and storms will be possible inland. The remnants of Francine will drift across the southeastern US Saturday night. A break in activity Saturday night will be replaced by coastal showers by Sunday morning as low pressure begins to develop offshore. Lows in the upper 60s. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday We continue to watch for the development of an offshore low impacting the coast late this weekend through early next week. Models continue to indicate uncertainty with ensembles also showing poor consensus. Several global models fail to develop the area of low pressure at all. Regardless of development of this low, the latest forecast maintains unsettled weather in onshore and moist advective flow. Coastal areas have the best chance of seeing showers and storms at this time each afternoon. Highs generally in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s. Marine Through Tonight Have not changed the timing of the Small Craft Advisory for all zones. Based on latest buoy obs the current start time around noon still looks good. High pressure to the north will maintain enhanced northeast winds with 15-20 kt sustained and occasional gusts in excess of 25 kt through tonight. The prolonged winds push seas over 6 ft around midday and that is the main reason for the SCA. Seas currently 4-5 ft will build over 6 ft in places later today and remain 4-6 ft through tonight. Seas will be a mix of a dominant easterly wind wave and a much weaker easterly swell. Friday through Monday High pressure to our north will weaken and the previous wedge across the Carolinas will allow the pressure gradient to weaken. Near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will still be possible during this gradient minimum and the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) remains in effect during this period. Low pressure will begin to develop offshore on Saturday which will see winds increase again. Persistent onshore flow will see waves increase to 4-7 feet with higher seas possible in the NC waters. Uncertainty increases late this weekend in regards to the developing low. A wide range of possibilities exists as this low develops and potentially approaches the NC/SC coast, but winds and seas are likely to remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds into Sunday morning and potentially into early next week. Tides / Coastal Flooding Other - Rip Currents There will be a Moderate to High risk of rip currents for east to southeast facing beaches today through early next week. In addition, there will be a strong east to west longshore current across south facing beaches today. This may expand to strong north to south longshore currents across all other beaches Friday through the weekend. All of this due to increasing onshore NE and E winds and building easterly swell impacting local beaches through this weekend and into early next week. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8am EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256. |
Wilmington NC Radar
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