Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Scattered Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Mon...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1010am EDT Sat August 8 2020
High pressure offshore and a weak trough of low pressure inland will maintain warm and humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through most of next week.
.UPDATE/... There are no changes to the forecast at this time.
Near Term - Through Sunday
The mid level trough that has been a feature on weather maps for the past few days will weaken today and dissipate by Sunday. The humid and unstable airmass will remain, and forecast CAPE values are 2500 to 3000 J/kg both today and Sunday. Despite almost nonexistent synoptic forcing, the seabreeze and subsequent outflow boundaries are expected to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Today's storms are expected to develop in the coastal Cape Fear region around noon, spreading westward throughout the afternoon. Much like yesterday, lack of shear should limit organization but large instability may still allow individual cells to pulse strongly. Highs should range from 85-90, coolest on the beaches.
Inland convection should dissipate during the evening, but should redevelop offshore overnight. Sunday will be largely similar today but with slightly drier air aloft. This should result in a little less convective coverage and slightly warmer temperatures.
Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
Mundane weather pattern in place Sunday night through Monday night, with zonal flow aloft and Bermuda high pressure to the east. Plenty of moisture and instability for scattered afternoon convection Monday. Highs Monday around 90, with heat indices around 100 degrees, and lows Sunday and Monday night in the low 70s.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
More of the same summer weather in the long term, with warm and humid conditions and afternoon to evening convection. Zonal pattern aloft Tuesday becomes more southerly Wednesday through end of the week as an upper ridge builds to the southeast. This will allow increased moisture to advect in from the south end of the week, elevating PW values (Precipitable Water values) to 2+ inches and increasing chances of scattered convection with moderate rain rates in the afternoon and evening Wednesday through Friday. Near normal highs continue, with low to mid 70 dewpoints maintaining elevated humidity, and lows each night in the low 70s.
Light south to southwest winds will continue through the weekend between high pressure well offshore and a weakening low pressure trough across the inland Carolinas. Outside of thunderstorms winds should average 10 knots or less with seas around 2 feet in a southeast swell. Ongoing thunderstorm activity early this morning should fade away by 10 AM. Inland thunderstorms this afternoon should mainly remain inland with little impacts on the coastal waters. Models indicate additional showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight and lasting into Sunday morning.
Sunday Night through Wednesday..
Outside of scattered thunderstorm chances each day and night, benign marine conditions continue Sunday night through Wednesday. S-SW winds 5-10 kts persist with Bermuda high offshore and weak pressure gradient over the area. Seas 1-2 ft through mid-week, combination of 1 ft 10 s SE swell and weak 1 ft S wind wave.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.