Marine Weather Net

Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ250 Forecast Issued: 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight.
Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...E Winds 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Building To 7 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely.
Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
418am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Synopsis
Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through tonight. Milder and continued dry conditions expected Wed followed by the next dry CFP Wednesday night. Looking at dry and near normal temps Thu with high pressure prevailing. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeast up the Southeast Atlantic coast. Partial clearing with at or above normal temps Sunday into early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Gusts are starting to decrease inland, still near 20 kts at the coast. The trough axis will be offshore come the morning. Weak high pressure will build in from the west for today, temperatures on the cooler side in the mid to upper 50s. Decent mixing will still lead to gusts near 25 mph in the afternoon, and the dry air in place will lead to clear skies. Clear skies continue into tonight with gusts decreasing after sunset. Another trough will pass by to our north leading to enough of a breeze that radiational cooling should be disrupted. Went with lows on the milder side of guidance, near 40.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
Will remain under W to NW flow aloft thru Thu with continued dry conditions. Looking at a brief warm up Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, under gusty SW-WSW winds as the surface pg re-tightens. The dry CFP slated for Wednesday night, however not as dramatic as it's predecessor Monday night. Will see some Cold Air Advection and a semi- tightened surface pg Thu with winds becoming N-NE, temps dropping back to near normal. Thu night will see a southern stream s/w upper trough drop down to the TX-LA Gulf of Mexico coast and begin to influence the FA with increasing SW flow aloft. Look for an increase in upper level clouds from the SW with onshore low level moist flow, look for additional clouds to increase in coverage later Thu night.

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
The Gulf Coast upper trough to progress ENE to the Eastern Carolinas from Fri thru Sat. Guidance pretty much agrees that light to moderate stratiform rain will be the focus Fri into Fri night, with likely or hier chances, as a coastal trough off the Carolina Coast is poised to get pulled to the coastal waters with various models unsure how far onshore and inland. Various models have also backed down with the intensity of the surface low as it lasses over/by the ILM CWA (County Warning Area) given the somewhat dampening upper s/w trough as it reaches the FA. Nevertheless, will indicate isolated thunder closer to the coast and over the Atl waters Fri night into Sat. May see leftover showers later Sat into Sat night followed by partial clearing Sun. Mid-level ridging becomes established overhead by early next week with mainly dry conditions and at or above normal temps.

Marine
Through Tonight
With the trough offshore, a brief period of improving conditions will settle in during the day due to building high pressure. NW winds will become SWly by the afternoon. The pressure gradient will increase again this evening as another disturbance passes to the north, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria again being met tonight. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possible early Wed morning with the surface pg remaining somewhat tightened ahead of the next cold front during daylight Wed. The gustiness will remain closer to the immediate coast as WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) ahead of the cold front overrides the surface based cool marine layer. The CFP slated for Wednesday night followed by ridging from the NW Thu then N-NE Fri. The surface pg will loosen Thu but likely re-tighten Thu night thru Fri night ahead of an approaching low pressure from the Gulf Coast to off the Carolina Coasts by Sat. The intensity of this low and upper support has mellowed somewhat when compared to previous and various model runs. However, will continue to advertise strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possibilities but refrain from mentioning Gales at this time. Generally SW-W offshore wind will keep seas in the 2 to 5 ft range at the start, with the hier seas slated from Cape Fear to Murrells Inlet. Winds become onshore NE-E Thu then E-SE Fri thru Fri night and into Sat due to the positioning of the coastal trough. Look for a decent fetch to setup allowing seas to build to 5 to 9 ft Fri night into Sat with some subsiding Sat night as winds become Northerly thruout.

Fire Weather
A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds will hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest winds will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later in the day. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible during the late afternoon and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to increased fire danger on Tuesday. Increased fire danger may also persist into Wednesday, with RH values around 30% and gusty W-WSW winds at 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. SC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.