Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely.|
|Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
615am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
Clouds and temperatures will increase today ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the Carolinas over the weekend, with cooling into early next week. Another cold front will approach during the middle of next week.
Near Term - Through Saturday
Latest surface analysis shows 1022 mb high pressure centered over southern SC/GA. The high slides off to the SE tonight, allowing for SW flow to develop across the area. This will lead to temps about five to ten degrees warmer than yesterday...highs mainly in the upper 60s to near 70. Increasing moisture in the fairly zonal flow aloft will also lead to some increasing clouds as well. A boundary then drops into the area from the north tonight with a pronounced wind shift to the N then NE behind the front. Despite a sharp increase in moisture in low levels, lack of any forcing will preclude any rain chances. Better chance of rain arrives Sat as mid-level energy increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Probability of Precipitation range from 20% at the immediate coast to 60% far NW areas.
Short Term - Saturday Night Through Sunday Night
A cold front will move across the area quickly Saturday night through Sunday morning. I increased the probability of precipitation to categorical most areas with the exception of the far eastern areas as some guidance shows a slight weakening trend as it moves eastward. A slightly northwest to west flow at the mid levels with high pressure at the surface moves in Sunday with cooler temperatures settling back to near or slightly below climatology.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
The west to east zonal pattern should more or less be in place through the extended period. A dampening shortwave moving well to the north across the midwest will drag a cold front across our area Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) have trended weaker with these features and along with other offices we have walked back probability of precipitation slightly. Dry high pressure will quickly move in behind this system.
SW flow today of 10-15 kt with surface high pressure centered south of the area. A frontal boundary then drops into the area from the north tonight. Expect an increase in N/NE winds post frontal, but still a bit below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds then become southerly again by Sat afternoon as a cold front approaches from the W. 1-2 ft waves this morning increase to 2-3 ft this afternoon. continuing through Sat and occasionally up to 4 ft out 20 nm. This includes a persistent 1-2 ft 10-11 second ESE swell.
Small craft advisory winds and seas expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as a cold front moves across. A brisk albeit brief northwest flow will develop Sunday on the order of 15 knots or so. This flow will quickly diminish as high pressure move across early next week. Another modest southwest flow will develop toward the end of the period. Significant seas beyond the small craft advisory will be 2-4 feet.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.