Marine Weather Net

Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 AM

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ250 Forecast Issued: 315 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Through 7 Am...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds And N 1 Ft At 3 Seconds.
Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 3 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Ne 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Rain With A Slight Chance Of Freezing Rain After Midnight.
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.
Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
323am EST Tuesday Feb 18 2025

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected today and tonight. Low pressure developing along the Gulf Coast Wednesday will spread rain across the area. Cold air arriving Wednesday evening may change precipitation to freezing rain with ice accumulations possible. Dry and much colder weather is expected late in the week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Some high clouds are starting to push in from the west with surface high pressure still effect. These will continue to stream overhead throughout the day with some weak warm air advection setting up as low-level ridging builds in. Cloudiness will continue increasing into tonight as low pressure approaches the area from the southwest, bringing stronger warm air advection. Highs will be a tad warmer in the mid to upper 50s. Lows will be much warmer, especially in our more southern areas and near the coast. Inland could remain near freezing but elsewhere lows will fall largely in the mid to upper 30s, with 40s possible in coastal NE SC. As aforementioned low pressure approaches, rain chances will increase late in the period.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Wednesday Night
An upper trough advancing quickly eastward across the southern U.S. will induce surface low pressure to develop along the central Gulf coast Wednesday morning. The low should jump across Florida during the day, reforming off the the Georgia coast during the afternoon and deepening as rides up the Gulf Stream into the open Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday.

Isentropic lift should blossom north of the low during the day Wednesday. Patchy light rain along the coast during the morning should quickly fill in, becoming a solid shield of moderate rain across the entire area Wednesday afternoon. 100 percent rain chances are being maintained in the forecast but with storm total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (0.3 to 0.7 inches) reduced by almost half from what was expected this time yesterday. Thick clouds, evaporational cooling at precipitation onset, and continued low level cold advection means Wednesday's high temps won't make it out of the 40s anywhere north of Georgetown, and could even stall in the upper 30s across Bennettsville, Lumberton, and Elizabethtown.

A significant winter storm appears likely to occur during the day Wednesday across Virginia and northern North Carolina. Subfreezing air supporting this event will advect southward by Wednesday evening, transitioning any remaining rain over to freezing rain. Our forecast currently has this changeover occurring in Lumberton by 7 PM; Burgaw, Whiteville and Florence by 9 PM; and Surf City, Wilmington and Conway by 11 PM. Efficient precipitation generation aloft will end from west to east as the 295K and 300K layers dry out, however low clouds may maintain patchy light (freezing) rain or drizzle after midnight across the coastal counties. After collaboration with NWS RAH and MHX, we're going to maintain the Winter Storm Watch for Robeson, Bladen, and inland Pender counties where there some potential remains for significant accumulations (0.25") of freezing rain. A Winter Weather Advisory eventually may be needed for areas to the south where lighter freezing rain could develop.

Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
A cold Canadian airmass will remain across the Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Despite a downslope flow off the Appalachians there will be enough low level moisture remaining Thursday for extensive stratocumulus/cumulus clouds to linger throughout the day. It won't be impossible for a stray snow flurry or two to make it down given the cold in-cloud and sub- cloud temperatures expected. Thursday's highs should only approach 40 degrees.

Cold advection will continue Thursday night. With the Canadian high still centered west of the Mississippi there may be enough wind throughout the night to keep low levels mixed and keep temps from crashing. My forecast lows are generally in the lower 20s.

Clear skies should continue Friday into the first half of Saturday as the Canadian high moves across the Carolinas and offshore. Slowly moderating temperatures are expected with highs in the 40s Friday warming into the 50s Saturday. The next shortwave trough may arrive Sunday, but models are not consistent with the location or intensity of associated cyclogenesis. Although the 00z operational GFS (Global Forecast System) shows rain Sunday, NBM ensemble members are less excited about this potential and I'll keep Probability of Precipitation no higher than 20 percent at this time. The bigger story may be the return to near normal temperatures by Monday as highs may reach the 60s again.

Marine
Through Tonight
NE winds will be 10-15 kts today, increasing to near 20 kts late tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Seas will remain ~2 ft through the day and a majority of the night as they're slower to respond, but 4 footers are possible towards the end of the period.

Wednesday through Friday Night...Low pressure taking shape along the Gulf Coast Wednesday morning will jump eastward across Florida, reforming off the GA coast Wednesday afternoon. Moderate northeasterly winds across the Carolina coastal waters will back to the north Wednesday afternoon in response to the deepening low offshore, then will turn northwesterly late Wednesday night into Thursday as the low approaches the definition of a bomb cyclone (24 mb pressure drop in 24 hours time) while accelerating northeastward through the open Atlantic. We could reach Small Craft Advisory criteria in winds Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, but confidence isn't quite high enough to raise an advisory just yet.

Winds won't drop appreciably until Friday afternoon when Canadian high pressure will begin to approach the Carolinas from the west.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for NCZ087-096-105. SC...None.

Marine
None.