Marine Weather Net

Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ250 Forecast Issued: 620 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
Today...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Mon...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
640am EDT Sat April 13 2024

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the area this weekend and will persist thru the mid-week period of next week. Look for seasonable temps today, slightly milder Sun, followed by a noticeable warming trend next week, with widespread 80s each work-day except cooler at the beaches. An approaching cold front late next week will bring our next chance for rain.

Near Term - Through Tonight
Water vapor imagery shows upper trough currently moving across the Northeast. The trough will move offshore early today, with decent NVA and downslope flow behind it for today. Combination will keep skies clear and high temps in the low to mid 70s. Strong subsidence and deep mixing will also lead to low RHs (20-25%) this afternoon as dewpoints in the low 30s, possibly upper 20s, are mixed down. While weakening, winds will remain a bit gusty today, with highest gusts across southeast NC with 25+ mph gusts will be possible. Thus increased fire danger conditions are expected today across southeast NC. At the surface, high pressure will begin building in from the southwest this afternoon, with its center moving south of the area tonight. Calm and clear conditions in store for tonight with lows in the upper 40s, with mid 40s in traditional cold spots.

Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night
This time frame will feature a true warming trend, with near 80 highs for Sunday and well into the 80s for Monday (except cooler at the immediate coastline).

Ridging aloft to dominate the short term while at the sfc, center of high pressure will park itself well offshore from the SE States Coast. Docile winds start the day Sun, but developing Lee side trough will result in an increase to the pg with SW winds becoming gusty Sunday aftn/evening. Winds will stay active Sun night with lows somewhat uniform in the 50s to around 60 across the FA. Monday will feature a backdoor cold front dropping south, with models now taking just across the VA-NC border late Mon. Some compressional heating under downslope flow will boost highs well into the 80s. Moisture limited to clouds but no pcpn expected. Winds diminish-some Monday night with lows likely holding in the 60s.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
Widespread 80s highs to remain a mainstay thru the upcoming work-week.

Stalled surface front just north of the FA at the start of this period, will lift back to the north Tue-Wednesday as the upper ridge axis becomes situated nearly overhead or just east of the FA. The parked center of surface high well offshore from the SE States will continue its influence across the FA with SW winds becoming active again as the surface pg tightens-some especially late Tuesday thru head of an approaching and eventually passage of a cold front. Moisture does scour-some as it crosses the Appalachians given the westerly flow aloft. But will have to watch the embedded s/w trough accompanying it which could ignite shower activity. Some slightly max temps for Fri when compared with the previous 4 days but should eclipse 80 most locations away from the beaches. Next cold front approaches the FA late Fri.

Marine
Through Tonight
Offshore winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through tonight. Winds and seas are currently on a downward trend as trough to the north begins to shift offshore and high pressure builds in from the southwest during the day. Expect conditions to improve below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria this morning, with continued lowering of offshore wind speeds and seas through the day and into tonight. Seas combination of a diminishing SSW wind wave, offshore wind chop, and a 2 ft 8 sec SE swell.

Sunday through Wednesday Night... Winds ands seas to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds this period. The exception will be Sunday afternoon thru Sunday night, where periodic gusts up to 20-25 kt possible. In addition, an active sea breeze on days when highs across the mainland reach well into the 80s, ie. Monday and Tue, could result in an active/strong sea breeze nearshore that borders temporary SCA (Small Craft Advisory) wind thresholds.

Seas Sunday generally from the SE around 2 ft at 8 sec periods. Short period wind chopped seas to dominate late Sunday thru early Tue. Underlying SE swell at 9 sec periods to reclaim temporary dominance Wednesday before wind chop again picks up and dominates thru Wednesday night.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254- 256.