Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...E Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 4 Ft, Then 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers With Isolated Tstms.|
|Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 5 Ft, Subsiding To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 4 Ft, Subsiding To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Night.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft, Then 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638am EDT Sunday September 23 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will prevail through early next week. An upper trough approaching from the west, will gradually push a cold front this way, reaching our coast Friday. Drier and slightly cooler high pressure is expected build in next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 400am Sunday...Deep layer high pressure will continue to dominate conditions through the near term period. The ridge is keeping the bulk of the activity associated with a wavering front across the Mississippi Valley at bay well to the west. This front is analyzed across Central North Carolina with a subtle wind shift essentially the only indicator. As for any showers, there is a slim possibility of a shower or two along this boundary this afternoon and maybe a little Atlantic activity advecting in early Monday morning. Continued to lean toward the MET numbers for temperatures although guidance is in really good agreement overall
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
As of 400am Sunday...1040mb high centered over SE Canada will ridge down the Eastern Seaboard thru Tue. A cold front tries to drop south to the CWA but gets hung up north of the FA Tue before being pushed back to the north. Various model MOS guidance Probability of Precipitation forecasts range from isolated chance via the NAM, to a modest to good chance via the GFS. And, the European basically smack in the middle. At this point, will lean toward the drier side of guidance given the forecast moisture advection at all levels remaining humbling at best. With a drier fcst, will lean towards hier max temp fcsts
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 320pm Saturday...Bermuda to Bahama upper ridge will be holding on Tuesday and Wednesday before shifting east, as an upstream and broad upper trough, and associated its axis, edge eastward across the Mississippi Valley. It appears the trough is of sufficient latitudinal amplification to bring a moderate degree of 925-700mb Gulf moisture pluming NE ahead of a slowly approaching cold front. As such, rain chances ramp up a bit Thursday and Friday. The cold front to cross the coast Friday night. The front may be slowly clearing the SC coast into Saturday, and overall, drier and slightly cooler air should filter in Saturday.
Near Term - Through Tonight: As of 400am Sunday...Benign conditions will continue across the coastal waters through the period. Expect mostly an easterly flow overall with a little bend to the south this afternoon along coastal areas with the sea breeze. Speeds will perhaps be a couple of knots higher than previous days but overall confined in a 10-15 knot range. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night: As of 400am Sunday...Modest 1035+ mb Surface ridging will extend down the Eastern seaboard and across the Carolinas at the start of this period. Winds will run from the NE to E at 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. For Tuesday thru Tuesday night, a trof or surface low well offshore and southeast of the Carolinas is progged to move northwestward then northward Tuesday night, remaining just offshore as it passes by Wednesday morning. The surface low or trof will have some tropical characteristics, but is not expected to further organize. Winds could temporarily increase to 10 to 20 kt with g25 mainly from Monday into Tuesday aftn. Significant seas will range between 2 to 5 ft thruout this period with 6 footers not out of the question for late Monday night thru Tue. The waters from Cape Fear northward will have the best potential to see the 6+ footers. Dominate periods will run 8+ seconds. Overall, the hier winds and seas will occur along and to the north thru east of the surface low's track.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Thursday: As of 320pm Saturday...Weak tropical low pressure, or possibly just a surface trough will approach the Carolina coasts late Tuesday night, dissipating as it lifts to the north across the NC Outer Banks Wednesday. Well established SW wind flow will follow in wake of this feature Thursday. As the low nears Tuesday, we may see gusty NE winds and elevated seas, so an Small Craft Advisory or SCEC possible at this time Tuesday. TUesday onward, isolated TSTMs can be expected to impact the 0-20nm waters
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Warning until 1pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE...None