Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Evening, Then Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Sat...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Through The Day.|
|Sun...Se Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
721pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021
A cold front will sweep across the area tonight, accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms. Cool and dry high pressure will build in from the north Wednesday into Thursday with below normal temperatures. The lingering front offshore will move inland on Friday with increasing warmth and chances of showers or thunderstorms increasing through the weekend.
The line of convection along the front is moving through Elizabethtown, Dillon, and Darlington currently and should be in Wilmington, Whiteville, and Florence in just a couple hours. I'm keeping Probability of Precipitation in the 60-80 percent range across the area. The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) shows the line breaking up as it dips farther south toward Myrtle Beach and Georgetown overnight due to the cooling boundary layer, but I'm maintaining 30-50 Probability of Precipitation even here given the good convergence continuing along the front. Low level cold advection behind the front could generate a layer of low stratus late tonight into Wednesday morning. Changes this update mainly centered on PoPs, weather, and clouds. No changes to forecast low temps.
Near Term - Through Wednesday Night
Moisture rich environment ahead of approaching cold front this afternoon, with pcp water values up over 2 inches, but lacking in the surface heating with such extensive cloud cover and shower activity. The front was draped from SW to NE across the Raleigh area around 3pm this afternoon. evident by a line of convection. Overall, expect best potential for stronger storm development associated with lift along the front and enhanced by shortwave energy rotating around main mid to upper trough into early this evening. Increasing low level winds up to 45 kts with mainly unidirectional shear out of the SW will help to create limited potential for damaging wind gusts with the convection through this evening. Convection will weaken and diminish as heating of the day cuts off, tapering off once front moves through and winds shift from SW to N-NE. Storm Prediction Center keeps our local area in marginal risk of severe weather through this evening with a few strong to severe storms possible, with main threat of damaging wind gusts.
Cold front will drop into the area between 10p and midnight, clearing the coast by daybreak. Lingering moisture and clouds should move off the coast through Wednesday morning as surface high builds down from the north, but mid to upper trough will flatten out and lift north leaving front lingering in the offshore waters as high pressure builds down from the north. Winds will shift around from SW to NE as front moves through. Soundings and moisture profiles show deep drying through the column with some lingering low level moisture which dries out by Wednesday afternoon. drying out further into Wednesday night. Pcp water values drop from 1.6 inches before daybreak Wednesday down less than an inch by midnight and possibly down to a half inch by Thurs morning.
Overall, expect clearing skies and increasing sunshine through Wednesday with relatively cool and dry air keeping temps near 80, over 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Overnight lows will be closer to normal tonight, but by Thurs morning, lows will drop down near 60 inland. Should see some fog around inland but as dewpoints drop, any fog should clear into the morning. Dewpoint temps close to 70 this evening will be down in the 50s by Wednesday night.
Short Term - Thursday and Thursday Night
A weakening wedge of surface high pressure will be in place through the period. Models have trended much drier with the forecast, now suppressing the measurable rain offshore, a trend we were starting yesterday. Clouds may linger along the coast however while inland locales see breaks of sunshine. This will likely suppress highs by a few degrees below their inland counterparts; both inland and coastal locations remaining below climatology.
Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday
Weak flow aloft on Friday while a weak warm front/trough moves ashore. Morning showers along the coast will spread inland along with the boundary. With highs still only in the lower 80s instability may be meager enough for only isolated thunder. Fairly deep but weak onshore flow becomes established Saturday which should wind up fairly seasonable and with just a slightly elevated coverage of mainly diurnal storms. The deep onshore flow remains Sunday but subtle height rises from the northeast should tend to trim convective coverage back to normal (30 percent-ish). The upper level ridge to our northeast strengthens further Monday into Tuesday. The deep layer onshore flow will thus continue and keep the area susceptible to diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms as the deep layer of marine air contains only very weak lapse rates.
Through Wednesday night... SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue into tonight in gusty SW winds ahead of a cold front. SW wind speeds are 25 to 30 kt sustained. Expect the CFP to occur during the pre-dawn Wednesday hrs, sinking SE- ward to just offshore before stalling during Wed. Winds will back to the NE-ENE after FROPA and actually may be underdone by guidance. The post cold frontal NE surge will lie just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds but the seas will be slow to subside due to the stalled front in close proximity and the continued pseudo/fresh swell feed. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds will be borderline during Wed, especially the waters off Cape Fear. Seas generally 5 to 8 ft at the start, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft at the end of the forecast period but subject to change especially toward the end. Potential SMW type convection by midday today and continuing into the evening with potential for 34+ kt wind gusts and occasional/frequent reduced vsby below 1nm at times from the heavy rain.
Thursday through Sunday...E to NE winds Thursday as high pressure wedging in from the north starts to weaken/break down. Flow turns more southerly on Friday as the continuation of this process allows a warm front to move ashore. Over the weekend the gradient remains weaker than normal as Atlantic high pressure is displaced north and east of its more normal June position closer to Bermuda. The short period wind wave will dominate seas through the period but there will be a few longer period wave components, primarily out of the southeast. One will have a 7-8 second period and the other 12-13 seconds.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Abnormally low tides, below -1 ft MLLW, will continue for the next several tide cycles as we approach the full moon on Thursday.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054. Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ056. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6am EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.