Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 648am EDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Synopsis A weak backdoor cold front will bring only minor rain chances this evening. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts offshore. Near Term - Through Tonight An upper trough moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes this morning will whip across New England this afternoon. A cold front currently extending from Kentucky across the central Appalachians will move southeastward, reaching the eastern Carolinas tonight. In advance of the front, southwest winds should provide seasonable temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 inland. Clear skies should last through early afternoon inland and through mid afternoon along the coast. The approach of the front should be accompanied by an increase in cumulus clouds, although these will initially be limited in depth by a weak subsidence inversion near 700 mb. As this inversion erodes late in the day and a belt of better mid level Gulf moisture arrives from the west, clouds should become more solid through this evening. There are conflicting signs in the models about how much shower activity will develop this evening. Although the airmass below 850 mb remains rather dry, there is little doubt we'll have at least a few hours of solid moisture between 800-600 mb, roughly 6000-15000 feet AGL. Isentropic analysis on the 300K surface this evening shows largely neutral motion through this moist layer. Forecast soundings suggest lapse rates roughly equaling the moist adiabat with minimal convective instability present. The GFS (Global Forecast System) plus many of the high-res and convection allowing models still suggest good coverage of showers - however the Canadian, ECMWF, and multiple machine learning models based on EC input suggest much lesser chances. I'll cap forecast Probability of Precipitation at 30 percent for this evening, only about 10 percent higher than previous forecasts, and hope that the 12z models runs converge on a clearer answer. The cold front should slide off the coast after midnight. Only modest cool advection is expected behind the front as skies clear and forecast lows range from 55-60, except cooler west of I-95. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front Thursday. Winds will have shifted to the north with only a slight cooling off, bringing high temps to the mid 70s most places instead of high 70s from day before. Although water temps are creeping up a bit, they still remain in the mid 60s so expect cooler temps at the beaches and bleeding inland a bit in the afternoon sea breeze. A warm front extending from system over the Midwest will lift north with any weak lift or pcp remaining west of the area. The Coastal Carolinas will remain on the southern extent of high centered over the Mid Atlantic to New England coast on Fri. This will kick winds around to a more onshore direction, but overall expect mainly dry weather with just some clouds later in the day on Fri into the weekend. In the mid to upper levels a ridge will begin to amplify and build in from the west with some moisture in the way of higher clouds spilling over the ridge. Any chance of pcp should remain west of the local area and east over the waters Thurs and Fri. Should also see some afternoon cu associated with the seabreeze. High temps on Fri will reach into the 70s again, but should be a few degrees lower than Thurs. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday High pressure will shift off the Mid Atlantic coast over the weekend with an onshore flow over the Coastal Carolinas. Some moisture convergence around the high and afternoon sea breeze should produce some clouds and possibly a stray shwr, but not enough confidence to include any pcp chances in the forecast for now, especially with the ridge building overhead. The center of the surface high will shift from the Mid Atlantic coast southward and will become situated off the Southeast coast. This will lead to winds veering around slowly through the weekend, becoming southerly Monday into Tues. This should help with warming and temps reaching back into the 80s into early next week. Overall, expect mainly quiet weather with limited potential for clouds and pcp with unseasonably warmer weather into early next week. Marine Through Tonight High pressure has moved a couple hundred miles off the Southeast coast. The pressure gradient along the high's backside has tightened and allowed southwest winds to increase to around 15 knots this morning. The approach of a cold front, currently located across Kentucky through the central Appalachians, should maintain these speeds throughout the day. This afternoon's seabreeze will locally increase speeds to near 20 knots, particularly along the Grand Strand and Pender/New Hanover county coastline. The front will arrive here at the coast after midnight, accompanied by a shift to northwest winds. Scattered showers may precede the front's arrival during the evening hours. Seas currently consist of 2-3 foot 10 second east swell along with a 2-3 foot wind chop. Combined seas should average 4 feet today, although it will be an awfully rough 4 feet given the direction differences in swells vs wind waves. The swell will continue through tonight although wind waves should diminish with the arrival of the front. Thursday through Sunday... Winds shift around to the N-NE behind front early Thurs as high pressure builds down behind cold front. Winds will become onshore over the weekend around 10 to 15 kts as high pressure shifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast. It will then shift southward and set up off of the Southeast coast leaving a more southerly flow of winds into early next week. The onshore flow will keep seas up 3 to 4 ft into the weekend and early next week. No headlines this period. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. Marine None. |
Wilmington NC Radar
Southeast Radar