Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late This Morning And Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 3 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 10 Kt Or Less, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
1100am EST Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will build into the Carolinas today and Saturday bringing clear skies and below-normal temperatures. Frost is possible tonight for some inland areas. Another cold front will move through the area Tuesday night, followed by high pressure through Thanksgiving Day. Low pressure developing to our south could bring rain in by Friday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 11 AM: I will issue a quick update to align hourly temperature and dewpoints with the latest observations. The update with feature less sky cover, lower afternoon RH, and wind timing changes.
As of 950 AM: Visible satellite showing nearly full sun across the land zones and Cold Air Advection clouds about 30-50 NM offshore. Temperatures have responded nicely to the mostly sunny conditions and NW winds. I will update the forecast products to remove mention of patchy frost this morning. Otherwise, I will lower afternoon dewpoints given the latest MOS and forecast soundings showing good mixing to 2kft.
As of 300am Friday...A west to northwest flow is now in place through basically all layers of the troposphere. There remains some stratus across the area this morning but this should dissipate and or mix out during the next few hours. Certainly a colder airmass settling in but not the coldest of the season and it is rather shallow. This will allow temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 50s today. As for Saturday morning guidance continues to advertise lows a few degrees above freezing even inland. Some frost is possible however and but probably not enough for a NPW
Short Term - Saturday Through Saturday Night
As of 300am Friday...A zonal upper level flow over the Carolinas on Saturday will continue into Sunday as a very positively tiled and sheared upper trough dips into the Mid- Atlantic states. A speed max in the subtropical jet will move across the Carolinas on Sunday, but with little impact on our sensible weather. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid- Atlantic states on Saturday will move off the Northeast coast on Sunday.
A very weak coastal trough will attempt to develop off the GA/SC coast Sunday as easterly fetch lengthens off the Southeast coast. A very shallow layer of moisture will begin to feed back in from the south just beneath the subsidence inversion. While the GFS and ECMWF actually wring out a couple hundredths of an inch along the coast late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, it appears the depth of moisture should be insufficient for more than clouds, and I'll maintain a dry forecast through the period.
Low to mid 60s for highs on Saturday should warm another degree or two on Sunday. Lows ranging from the upper 30s inland to lower 40s coast Saturday Night should warm into the 40s to near 50 at the coast Sunday Night due to clouds and modification from onshore flow
Long Term - Sunday Through Thursday
As of 345pm Thursday...Longwave upper pattern continues to display a low amplitude trough encompassing much of the U.S. with upper ridging along the immediate west coast. Westerly flow aloft starts out this period with dry and near normal temps expected for Sunday. Models the past few days indicate an impulse in the lower levels of the flow over the Atlantic off the southeast U.S. Coast. Models indicate it making it's turn to the NW then N during Monday and to the NE by early Tue, finally pulling away from the Carolina coast. Have indicated a short- period of patchy light rain along the immediate coast Monday into Monday night. A surface cold front is able to push across Tuesday into Wednesday with the aid of a mid-level s/w trof. Not much of Cold Air Advection behind it as flow aloft drops back to zonal. By the end of this period, models hint of a pcpn event shaping up but just too far out in time for specifics.
Near Term - Through Tonight: As of 11 AM: As scheduled I will remove the 'exercise caution' headline from from the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Coastal Waters Forecast with the 11am update. Buoys and near shore observations indicated that conditions were less than criteria for the headline.
As of 645am Friday...Based on latest wind and wave reports from buoys and piers I can allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire on schedule for the North Carolina waters, replacing it with an 'exercise caution' headline through 11am for residual 5 foot seas. For the South Carolina coastal waters winds and waves are diminishing as well and it appears no headlines will be needed for the remainder of the day as winds should remain below 20 knots and seas below 5 feet. Discussion from 300am follows... Winds and seas scaling back this morning as expected. 41013 is now down to eight feet seas with sustained winds just over 20 knots. Will go ahead and extend the small craft advisory until 12 UTC for the northern waters and issue a SCEC headline for the southern waters. By this evening winds will drop to ten knots or less from the west/northwest. Significant seas will drop to 2-4 feet.
Short Term, Saturday Through Sunday Night: As of 300am Friday...High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will move off the Northeast coast Sunday. A very weak coastal trough will attempt to form off the GA/SC coast on Sunday, but there shouldn't be enough support in the upper levels of the atmosphere for anything significant to develop. Northeasterly winds 10-15 kt Saturday morning should diminish to less than 10 kt by late afternoon, then will turn more easterly on Sunday. Wind direction could become variable Sunday night if the weak coastal trough to our south can lift northward.
Long Term - Monday Through Tuesday: As of 345pm Thursday...A semi-active significant seas period as long period ESE ground swell at 9+ second periods will highlight this period. Winds this period will primarily have a northerly trajectory but remain in the 10 to occasionally 15 kt speeds. This could further increase slightly depending on the movement and strength of the low level impulse moving around the periphery of the Atlantic as explained in the public discussion for this time period. Significant seas will run in the 2 to 4 foot range, primarily coming from the 9+ second period ESE swell
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None