Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day, Then Showers Through The Night.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1212pm EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020
Arctic high pressure will remain across the eastern United States through Thursday. Increasing rain chances and warmer temperatures are expected Friday ahead of a cold front. The front should move offshore early Saturday, followed by seasonal temperatures and dry conditions through early next week.
For transition of Gale Warning to Small Craft Advisory... Tight gradient between high pressure building down from the northwest and low pressure over the northern Bahamas, will maintain gusty northerly winds over the waters. The winds will diminish slowly as the low moves off to the east and high shifts closer towards the coast, but overall stiff northerly flow and seas up to 5 to 8 ft will continue with Small Craft Advisory conditions through at least Thurs.
Gusty northerly flow will also keep temps on the chilly side this afternoon. Although temps will make an attempt at 50, winds will make it feel in the 40s under bright January sunshine.
Near Term - Through Thursday
High pressure continues as the dominate weather feature for the next 36 hours with dry conditions. Cloud cover will increase slightly as southerly winds aloft bring some moisture back into the Carolinas ahead of the next approaching warm front for the end of the week. Breezy north winds with gusts up to 20 mph expected until this evening. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer approaching the 50 degree mark, which is still on the cool side of normal. After another cool night tonight with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, temperatures Thursday will be right around normal in the low to mid 50s.
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
The focus of the short term period and the first few hours of the long term forecast will be the cold front moving across. Model guidance is stable with the events and probability of precipitation increase from west to east with the highest values occurring Friday evening. Not a lot of qpf expected with the system primarily because of its progressive nature. Highs Friday, depending on the moisture will be in the lower to possibly even middle 60s. For overnight lows mostly 40s are expected with cooler readings early for Friday morning.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Basically dry and cool for the extended. The only exceptions will be the first few hours Saturday when residual probability of precipitation will be in place. A northwest flow develops in the wake of this system. Very late in the period a ridge will build with yet another seemingly quick hitting system in the offing just beyond this. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) does have a bit of a glancing impact from a southern stream system early next week but maintained this time frame dry for now.
Gale conditions offshore today until noon with north winds 20 to 30 kts and gusts up to 40 kts. Seas 6 to 9 feet around 8 seconds. Conditions will improve slightly this afternoon, but conditions are still unfavorable for small craft navigating offshore this evening and overnight. While conditions improve over the South Carolina waters Thursday, small craft advisory will be likely needed for North Carolina waters Thursday.
Northeast winds will be in place for about another 12 hours or so in the short term period. At that point a return flow will quickly transition to southwest flow ahead of the next cold front. This feature will cross the waters early Saturday. Beyond this a westerly flow will develop eventually turning a bit to the northwest in time. Regarding seas, there may be a brief period of small craft values later Friday, otherwise 2-4 feet can be expected possibly lower late in the period as the offshore flow is somewhat weak.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254-256.