Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt Early This Morning, Then Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late This Morning. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
328am EDT Sunday May 31 2020
With the front is off the coast this morning, cooler and much drier weather expected to filter across the area today and tonight, and will remain in place through Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. The high will move offshore Tuesday with warming temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Rain and thunderstorm chances return late week.
Near Term - Through Monday
A cold front will push south across the area this morning, allowing cooler and drier air to begin building south into the Carolinas. Other than the wind shift, the frontal passage may not be immediately evident as there may be considerable mid level clouds lingering behind the boundary thanks to moisture and relatively steep lapse rates in the 4,000-10,000 foot AGL layer. High temperatures should approach 80 degrees which is about 5 degrees below normal for the last day of May.
The afternoon seabreeze should create a zone of enhanced low- level convergence along the South Carolina coast. This convergence plus a ribbon of higher dewpoints due to onshore winds may be enough to generate afternoon convection from Myrtle Beach south to Georgetown. I'm maintaining a 20-30 Probability of Precipitation in this area where CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is possible. Any convective activity should quickly dissipate this evening as the boundary layer cools and dewpoints sink into the 50s overnight. This could be one of the last cool nigheights in a while as lows are expected to reach the mid to upper 50s away from the beaches. The only inhibiting factor for setting up a strong radiational inversion is winds just above the surface remaining 10- 20 knots overnight. Mostly sunny and dry on Monday with highs 75-80.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
Cool and dry weather in store for the short term. High pressure overhead Monday night will move offshore Tuesday. Deep north- northwest flow and good radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop to drop to upper 50s Monday night. Temps begin to warm Tuesday as mid level ridge builds over the SE and southerly flow develops at the surface. Could see scattered mid- level clouds Tuesday afternoon as a slug of 700mb moisture passes to the north. Highs Tuesday in the low 80s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 60s.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Above normal temps for the long term, with persisting south- southwest flow, and a mid level ridge overhead Wednesday shifting offshore for Thursday and Friday. A 500mb shortwave moves across to the north Tuesday night, but air column still pretty dry and therefore no pops. Wednesday is also expected to remain dry with mid level ridge and dry air aloft. However, there may be enough instability that a few afternoon storms isn't impossible. A weak surface trough develops Wednesday into Thursday, added to high forecasted CAPE and expected sea breeze for Thursday could help develop scattered storms. With persisting south-southwest flow, moisture and associated instability remain elevated Friday to Saturday. Combined with a 500mb trough moving across, have chance thunderstorms in the forecast Friday through Saturday. Highs Wednesday to Saturday will run around 90 degrees each afternoon, and near 70 each night.
A cold front will slip off the NC coast before sunrise, and will slide down the South Carolina coastline during the morning hours. Northeast winds developing behind the front will increase throughout the day, especially north of Cape Fear where speeds should approach 20 knots during the afternoon. While not quite enough for a Small Craft Advisory, it will raise a short period chop building to 3 to 4 feet. When combined with a smaller 8 second southeast swell, combined seas of 4 to 5 feet are expected to develop.
These rougher conditions should spread south along the Grand Strand and toward Georgetown late this afternoon with breezy northeast winds expected to persist through the night. It wouldn't take much of an increase in winds or seas to necessitate an advisory, but after collaboration with NWS Charleston we're going to hold off for now. Conditions should begin to improve on Monday as high pressure builds down into eastern North Carolina by late in the day.
East winds Monday night will veer to SW for Tuesday, with winds 10 kts early strengthening throughout the day to around 15 kts Tuesday night. SW winds 15-20 kts continues Wednesday to Thursday with high pressure offshore. Current forecast keeps gusts around 20 kts Wednesday and Thursday, below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Seas 2-3 ft Tuesday increase to 3- 4 ft Tuesday night through Thursday, with 5 footers in the outer coastal waters Wednesday night. Seas combination of 1-2 ft 9 sec SE swell Monday night to Wednesday, with a SSW wind wave building starting Tuesday. SW wind wave seas around 5 sec will dominate Wednesday night through Thursday.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...None.