Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Se Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.|
|Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1011am EDT Thu July 19 2018
Synopsis: A front will remain south of the area today as high pressure ridges southward across NC. The front is expected to move toward the north late tonight and Friday resulting in a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled weather is possible late Saturday through Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 10am Thursday...The synoptic boundary is just south of the forecast area this morning with a ridge building into the area from PA/NY. An unstable/moist environment exists in the vicinity of the front/southward, while much drier conditions reside north of the boundary. The best chances (30-50%) for showers/thunderstorms today will be across the far southern zones. The old boundary will begin to shift northward during tonight with POPs increasing across southern and coastal areas. No major changes made with the morning update.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
As of 3am Thursday...A series of surface waves moving along a front stalled in the area will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances Fri into Fri night. Best chances will be along the coast, where forcing and moisture will be highest. Areas farther inland will be drier with limited coverage of weaker showers and isolated thunderstorms. Precipitable water will be in excess of 2 inches at times along the coast Fri. Additionally storm motion Fri into Fri night will be around 5 kt. Storms will be slow moving and very efficient at producing heavy rainfall. Flooding along the coast during the first half of the period will be a real possibility.
Front lingers in the area Sat but increasing dry air and lack of forcing, as stacked low over the Great Lakes starts drifting south, leads to a significant reduction in precipitation chances across the area Sat. Deeper moisture and low level convergence along a pre- frontal trough move into the area Sat night. Precip chances increase with the arrival of the trough but confidence is low and for now will carry chance pop. Temperatures will be near to slightly below climo due to clouds and precip, especially Fri. Lows will be near to slightly above climo
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 3am Thursday...GFS/ECMWF very similar with mid/upper low pressure drifting south across the KY Valley Sunday. Both drop this feature southward to near AL or GA Monday and the central Gulf Coast during Tuesday. As a result, a higher precipitable water environment will likely become focused across the Carolinas with an increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms each day through the early part of next week. The increased cloud cover and southerly flow will support above normal low temperatures each night and slightly cooler than normal highs each day.
Near Term - Through Tonight: As of 10am Thursday...Although seas across the domain are currently below Small Craft thresholds they are steep given the low wave periods with heigheights around 4 ft. Northeast to easterly winds will be around 15 knots for the Cape Fear waters, and 10-15 knots for the southern legs. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found across the extreme southern waters today, with scattered storms possible across the remaining waters tonight as the old front begins to lift back to the north.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 3am Thursday...Front stalled in the region at the start of the period will shift just inland of the coast on Fri. East- northeast winds 10 kt or less will veer to south-southwest during Fri. A series of weak waves will move north along the front Fri night and Sat, increasing wind speeds as they pass. Southwest flow will be around 10 kt but with increases to around 15 kt as each wave moves by. Gradient tightens up a little following the passage of the last wave and winds Sat night will be a solid 15 kt from the southwest. Seas around 3 ft at the start of the period will be on a steady increasing trend through the period. Seas build to 3 to 4 ft Fri night and Sat, peaking at 3 to 5 ft late Sat and Sat night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3am Thursday...A southwesterly fetch could carry into the first part of next week resulting in a prolonged period of Small Craft conditions. Seas will likely average 4-6 ft which is not a typical mid-July sea state
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None