Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Early Morning. Showers Likely With Isolated Tstms Late.|
|Thu...S Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 7 To 10 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers With Isolated Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 2 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
718pm EST Wednesday Jan 23 2019
Synopsis: Mild and breezy conditions overnight can be expected, with quick passing light showers, before a cold front brings more significant rain Thursday morning, along with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Seasonably cool and dry air will build across the region in wake of the front through the weekend. A slight warming trend will bring milder daytime temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Near Term - Through Thursday
As of 7pm Wednesday...Temperatures about the region will move little as robust warm air advection offsets diurnal cooling. A flatline trace to very slight rise from 0z-12z in both T/Td is the expectation, many locals to achieve the min_T early in the night. MUCAPE/MLCAPE fields to remain low until an uptick/peak between 12z-18z Thursday, 300-400 J/kg only modest yes, but conjoined with aggressive kinematic and frontal convergence seems enough for TSTM inclusion in a brief passing window. Sea fog encroachment onto land possible overnight with Td rises even small, and onshore mild wind atop chilled SST values. 10 meter and surface winds to peak Thursday morning. Winds to veer from SSW to WSW through middle and late afternoon in an easing mode
As of 415pm Wednesday...The FA is now well into the warm sector well ahead of the strong eastward moving cold front that will be working its way across the windward side of the Appalachian mountains early this evening. Various model soundings illustrate moisture availability remains at or below 800 mb which at this juncture is primarily involving Atlantic Ocean Moisture. As a result, have continued in carrying a low chance for light rainshowers late this afternoon and well into this evening. As the mid-level s/w trof continues it's progression eastward, it taps plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture and carrys it northward. Model trends have been narrowing the highest moisture content of the atm for this event, including Gulf and Atlantic combined moisture, to occur prior to sunrise Thu thru midday Thu. Models indicate Peak forecast PWS of 1.5 inches and excellent low level wind shear, both speed and directional changes during this 6 to 9 hr time-line. However, instability is lacking which is usual for this time of the year, ie. low Cape and high shear. With 50 kt winds forecast at just 800 feet off the sfc, a well mixed moderate to strong shower could produced a strong surface wind gust with thunder lacking. Will however, indicate isolated/low chance for thunder during the 6 to 9 hr peak of pcpn occurrence. Temperatures will be running 3 to 4 categories above normal which will make it seem even warmer given the brief Arctic temperatures experienced from Sunday night thru late last night
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
As of 300pm Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front Thurs night through Fri night. A very broad mid to upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS though with high getting suppressed a bit further south heading into the weekend. This leaves a generally drier and cooler air mass over the area. Temps will drop a good 30 degrees Thurs night with temps down into the mid 30s by daybreak. The 850 temps drop out from near 12c Thurs afternoon down to -5 by Fri night. This Cold Air Advection will keep daytime highs below normal for Fri with most places closer to 50 most of the aftn. Fri night will have a better shot at more decent radiational cooling as winds lighten with mainly clear skies. Temps should drop down below freezing most places
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
As of 300pm Wednesday...A very broad mid to upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. This will maintain more of a progressive flow in the northern stream, while surface high pressure will remained sprawled across the deep south over the weekend, migrating closer overhead by Monday. Overall expect dry weather through the weekend into early next week with a good deal of sunshine. Temps will be just on the cool side through the weekend, but will begin to warm through early next week. Models continue to show low pressure riding up off the Southeast coast early next week, but may be too far away to produce any weather. The next appreciable chance of rain will most likely come during the middle of next week as a cold front reaches the area late Tues into Wed.
Near Term - Through Thursday: As of 7pm Wednesday...Current sea-spectrum plots show peak energy contained in SSE waves every 6-7 seconds, as a broad offshore fetch and wave generation region becomes developed. As the waves organize themselves, peak energy will shift to longer wavelengths Thursday. During maximum wave-heigheights of 7 to 12 feet into Thursday, peak wave periods to reach 8-9 seconds. This coupled with Gale force winds and gusts, will produce treacherous mountains of water offshore. Isolated TSTMs possible Thursday morning.
As of 400pm Wednesday...Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters. The surface pg will continue to tighten well ahead of the eastward progression of the strong cold front now located on the windward side of the Appalachian Mountain chain. By daybreak Thu, the north-south oriented cold front will be located along the I-95 corridor. The tightened surface pg will peak Thu morning just prior to the cfp. After Fropa, models quickly relax the surface pg during Thu aftn. The Cold Air Advection will not nearly be as intense like what occurred Sunday into Sunday night due to the Cold Air Advection involved is NOT of Arctic origin. Winds will drop thru Small Craft Advisory Thu afternoon and continue trending lower Thu night. Significant seas will primarily be short period dominated, ie. wind driven waves, with no long period ground swell really involved. Seas will peak in the 6 to 11 foot range with the highest seas off Cape Fear and Romaine respectively with the shallow shoals helping with heights. "Victory at sea conditions" will help describe the rather chaotic seas due to wind direction changes during the next 24 hrs. From the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru midday Thu, expect the best chances to see widespread showers with embedded tstorms.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300pm Wednesday...High pressure will build in behind exiting cold front. Winds and seas will remain elevated with Small Craft Advisory through Thurs night in NW to N winds up to 15 to 20 kts initially. By Fri morning, seas will diminish in off shore flow and will continue on a downward trend through Fri. Expect lighter northerly winds Fri afternoon through Fri night with seas down under 4 ft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300pm Wednesday...High pressure sprawled across the deep South over the weekend will shift closer overhead and then off the Southeast coast by Sunday night. This will generally maintain a light off shore flow 5 to 10 kts most of the time and seas less than 3 ft
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Gale Warning from 11pm this evening to 1pm EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256