Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Ft At 13 Seconds. Patchy Fog Early This Morning. Patchy Fog Late This Morning And Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm Late. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 738am EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Synopsis A backdoor cold front will stall south of the region today before lifting back north on Friday. A significant warming trend could bring record highs on Friday and Saturday. A strong but moisture-starved cold front will push through early Sunday, with temperatures falling to below-normal values for Monday before moderating to around normal thereafter. Dropped the Dense Fog Advisory for NC counties. The front had more success clearing out the fog than expected. It is quite possible that the advisory will be ended early across SC, as the front slips further south. Aviation section updated. Near Term - Through Tonight Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for a portion of the forecast area. Seeing plenty of reports of visibility quarter mile or less in the advisory area and cams are showing fog in some of the areas. Visibilities will continue dropping as the fog expands during the overnight hours. Farther inland somewhat lower boundary layer moisture may lead to patchy, transient dense fog. Dry cold front moving in from the north will push south of the area around daybreak. High pressure will build southeast following the front, leading to a somewhat cooler day as northerly flow sets up. Do wonder if guidance might be a little too warm, although highs will still end up above normal. May see most areas end up in the mid to upper 60s vs low to mid 70s seen Wed. The front may end up lingering south of the area a bit longer than first thought. If temperatures do end up a little cooler than expected, the front would take a bit longer to overcome the stubborn cooler air. Rather than it returning north late tonight it may end up doing so just beyond the end of the forecast period. Column is too dry and the air mass is too stable for any rainfall with the front, even as a weak surface coastal trough and wave develop along the coast. Skies end up partly to mostly cloudy, but with a lot of high cloud. Forecast soundings suggest the high cloud could be quite thick at times, which is supported by current satellite imagery west of the area. Thick high cloud could also contribute to highs a bit cooler than forecast. Varying amount of cloud tonight and wind will keep lows above normal. Fog also looks like it could be an issue again tonight, especially along the coast. Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night As mid-upper troughing amplifies over the nation's midsection and translates eastward, ridging over the western Atlantic will build and shift eastward as well, helping to push surface high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. A stalled front will drift back northward on Friday, with weak isentropic ascent over the stalled front through a shallow moist layer keeping low clouds in place during the morning while coastal troughing may allow for some light northward-moving showers over the ocean to reach coastal areas as well. This front should lift back through by the afternoon with southeast winds veering to southerly and clouds breaking up to a partly sunny coverage. Once clouds break, warm 925mb temps of 14-15C will permit well-above normal highs, with middle 70s expected, and upper 70s possible where enough sunshine can occur. Any light showers which do make it onshore should be short-lived and inconsequential. Over Friday night and Saturday morning, northward-moving coastal showers will remain possible as surface low pressure deepens over the lower Mississippi Valley and bands of confluence form over the ocean between this low and offshore high pressure. Mild temperatures will continue in this warm advection regime with Friday night's lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. The tightening pressure gradient will also lead to increasing winds, with gusts as high as 25-35mph on Saturday afternoon amidst very warm to record highs in the upper 70s to around 80F inland and low-mid 70s nearer to and along the coast. Although the aforementioned low pressure system will drag a cold front towards the area on Saturday night, the low is expected to lift along the spine of the Appalachians while a closed upper low shifts from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Thus, surface convergence along the front will be waning as it approaches and despite seeing a solid band of showers over the Piedmont on Saturday, this should gradually dry out with time through Saturday night, with a much sparser band of showers slowly pushing through during the overnight with the frontal boundary. Overnight lows in the middle 50s are forecast as the front will be slow to push through and cold advection will ramp up during the day on Sunday. Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday The cold front should be moving off the coast early on Sunday, taking the band of showers offshore with it during the morning hours. Strong cold and dry advection will ramp up in the wake of this front in the form of gusty west to northwest winds which will bring PWATs (Precipitable Waters) from around 1.4-1.5 inches in the band of showers ahead of the front to as low as 0.1-0.2" by Sunday evening. Winter will make quite the return as daytime max temps in the low-mid 60s on Sunday crash into the upper 20s to low 30s on Sunday night, with dewpoints falling into the teens. This chilly airmass will make for an abnormally cold Monday with cold advection continuing through the day, potentially keeping highs from reaching 50F despite sunny skies. As the high pressure system responsible for this airmass moves overhead on Monday night, lows should dip into the 20s away from the coast amidst light or calm winds and very low dew points. Beyond this point, mid-upper troughing will remain in place aloft, but as high pressure moves offshore, some rebound in temperatures can be expected. This should yield temps that are around normal for this time of year (highs in the upper 50s, lows in the mid-30s). With respect to precipitation chances, a strong shortwave trough is depicted by guidance tools diving through the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and dipping into the Gulf by late Wednesday. Cluster analysis on this pattern using 12Z guidance indicates the most likely outcome is for precipitation to stay offshore, but an alternate scenario is for a deeper and further west trough, which would bring some precipitation onshore. Thus, temperatures and precipitation chances are subject to substantial changes from Wednesday onward. Marine Through Tonight Not much of a gradient over the waters today and tonight as weak front slips south and high pressure to the north builds in. The high will result in northerly flow across the waters today. Weak coastal trough may develop tonight which could lead to more east or southeast winds across portions of the waters, but the weak gradient will keep speeds under 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less will be a mix of two wind waves, southerly and easterly with neither being particularly dominant. Friday through Monday A stalled front is expected to lift back northward on Friday morning, veering winds from southeasterly in the morning to southerly in the afternoon with speeds around 5-10 kts. South winds will continue through Saturday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing speeds on Saturday, especially as the front draws near during the night, with speeds peaking around 15-20 kts. The front will cross the waters on Sunday morning with winds initially veering to westerly and remaining around 15-20 kts. A surge of cold and dry air on Sunday night will lead to breezy conditions which may result in SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. The pressure gradient weakens on Monday and winds subside as a result. Seas around 1-2 ft on Friday respond to the increasing winds by rising to around 2-4 ft by late Saturday and remaining elevated through the frontal passage. With the surge in winds expected on Sunday night, seas should peak around 3-5 ft before quickly subsiding on Monday. Wind waves will be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum. Climate Max temperatures on Friday and Saturday may reach or exceed the daily records. See below for max temp records on each day... Site Jan 9 Jan 10 Wilmington, NC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 74F (2013) 79F (1957) Florence, SC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) Lumberton, NC: 78F (1907) 78F (1957, 1930) NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for SCZ039- 054>056-058-059. Marine Dense Fog Advisory until 10am EST this morning for AMZ250-252- 254-256. |
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