Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 8 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Early, Then Rain Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 9 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 9 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 7 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Thu...W Winds 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: W 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 5 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...W Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 216pm EDT Tuesday Oct 28 2025 Synopsis Chances for showers will be in place through Wednesday night. Dry high pressure should return behind a cold front on Thursday. Near Term - Through Wednesday Surface low pressure off the NC coast will gradually lift away to the northeast through tonight while a secondary weak low forms along the cold front near the Gulf Stream off the SC coast. This secondary low will help to focus isentropic upglide via southeast winds mostly along the 295K surface, maintaining overcast skies and keeping periods of light rain and drizzle in the forecast through the night. With low-level winds out of the north, expect dew points to fall some, resulting in overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave trough swinging across the area today will be replaced by transient ridging for the overnight into Wednesday morning as a powerful closed low takes shape over the Deep South. The ridging aloft will result in substantial dry air and subsidence above 700mb, keeping additional rain amounts light through Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, the offshore surface low drifting northward off the SC coast will help maintain northeast surface winds for much of the day while isentropic upglide continues on southeast winds along the 295K surface. Expect this to result in continued low cloudiness and areas of light rain and drizzle through the day. The flow aloft will pivot to southerly, then southwesterly late in the day as the powerful closed low approaches from the west, helping to bring additional moisture and weak instability into play. Something to watch will be the possibility for gusty low-topped showers on Thursday afternoon and evening as strong forcing attendant impinges on the area in tandem with this moisture and strengthening wind shear. Some thinning or breaks in the clouds may occur as well, helping to boost max temps into the low-mid 60s. Short Term - Wednesday Night Through Friday Night A very deep mid level cyclone will be moving through the Tennessee Valley then rapidly through the Great Lakes Region by the end of the week. The system will be lacking significant moisture however by the time the main front associated with it reaches our area and not expecting significant rainfall totals. I see this more of thin/narrow line of showers moving quickly across. In time the more broad based probability of precipitation of the NBM will probably be trended into a more narrow range. Beyond this mostly sunny and or clear skies will develop with cooler temperatures. Saturday morning may be the coolest of the season although the scope of radiational conditions is somewhat uncertain. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Cyclonic flow will relax through the weekend into early next week. Dry conditions will be in place through the period with temperatures a little below normal initially warming slightly in time. The next possible rain maker is of course one of the cut off low variety moving across to the south but impacts at least at this point don't come until later. Marine Through Wednesday... Rough marine conditions (with gusts reaching gale force) will continue as offshore low pressure lifts away to the northeast, allowing for breezy north winds to gradually subside through Wednesday. Seas are expected to peak this evening in the 4- 10 ft range (lowest in the nearshore waters west of Cape Fear and highest in the waters near 20nmi southeast of Cape Fear) before they gradually subside with the decline in winds. Nevertheless, seas should remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds through Wednesday, necessitating a Small Craft Advisory after the Gale Warning expires at 06Z. Wednesday Night through Monday... Winds will in time transition from southwest to west and remain strong at least through most of the day Thursday. Speeds will be 20-25 knots perhaps a bit higher at times especially later Thursday within cold air advection. Yet another Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Significant seas will be 5-7 feet early on falling by the weekend to 2-4 feet. Winds diminish as well to 10-15 knots remaining from the west/northwest. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Marine Gale Warning until 2am EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 2am Wednesday to 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ254-256. |
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