Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Few Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
101am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
High pressure offshore will keep a summer like pattern through Sun. A dry cold frontal passage will occur Sunday night followed by weak high pressure Mon. Low pressure system tracking along the Gulf Coast states late Mon, will push across the the Carolinas Tuesday and track off the coasts and well offshore Tuesday night into Wed. Weak high pressure will prevail late Wednesday thru Thu followed by the next storm system Fri.
Public: Winds, sustained and especially gusts, increased hier from earlier this evening and continued thru several hrs after midnight. Active and healthy sea breeze will finally deteriorate later this evening and overnight. SW winds are not expected to drop too far below 10 kt during the pre-dawn hrs due to a healthy low level Southwesterly Jet at 35 to just shy of 45 kt between 2am and 11 am Sun. Have also tweaked tonigheights lows 1 to 2 degrees hier with widespread 60s common. Low level stratus cloud deck at 700 to 1200 ft should be common late in the pre-dawn Sunday hrs thru mid to late daytime Sunday morning.
Marine: Main issue tonight will be some mixing of that low level sw jet down to the ocean sfc. It will be limited especially across the cooler SSTs, ie. near the immediate coast. Could see gusts up to 25 kt but it should be infrequent and thus not requiring a SCA. Significant seas should reach 3 to 5 ft thruout with some 6 footers off Cape Fear, ie the outer waters 15 to 20 nm out. Sea fog may become an issue Sunday if surface dew points pool up into the upper 60s to around 70 advecting across SSTs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Have kept Patchy sea fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Near Term - Through Sunday Night
The strong ridge of high pressure will continue to be the story for the near term although conditions do change a bit in the later parts of the period. The heat is on once again this afternoon as it appears Florence has broken a record and Wilmington is nearing one although the sea breeze is knocking on the door. The overnight hours will be warm and dry once again while Sunday should be similar to today. Heigheights do fall slightly as a weakening shortwave moves across the Midwest and a trailing cold front moves across our area Sunday evening. Perhaps a few more clouds may be in store Sunday but highs should once again have ample opportunity to tease record values in the middle and upper 80s. Warm overnight lows as well in the lower to middle 60s with the lower values Monday AM.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
Cold front moves offshore on Monday and brings slightly cooler and drier weather. Low pressure develops over the central US late Monday and moisture associated with the low will spread eastward across the southeast. Clouds increase Monday night inhibiting overnight lows with southerly return flow increasing humidity. The low pressure system continues eastward and pushes the previous cold front northward as a warm front on Tuesday. Rain chances increase during the day on Tuesday and peak Tuesday evening as the low jumps to the Carolina coastal waters. Showers are expected to taper off Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a slight chance of rain lingering into early Wednesday morning.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Rain chances taper off on Wednesday from west to east. Behind the low pressure system, much cooler and drier air will funnel into the Carolinas with cold air advection continuing overnight Wednesday. Temperatures continue below normal on Thursday. During the day on Friday, southerly winds increase ahead of the next cold front. Cold front moves through the area next weekend bringing increased rain chances.
Steady state conditions for the marine community for the next 24 hours or so. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots will continue for the overnight and morning hours Sunday. A weakening front will increase the gradient slightly later Sunday possibly increasing the winds to a range of 15-20 knots. By the end of the period a modest westerly flow will be in place in the wake of the front. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the higher values later Sunday with the uptick in winds. Even a handful of five footers are possible into the evening hours Sunday. Some sea fog is possible once again tonight and added patchy to the forecast to address.
Benign marine conditions through Tuesday before low pressure rides the coastline and brings elevated offshore winds on Wednesday at 15- 20 knots. Seas remain 2-4 feet, but breezy conditions could create steep seas for small vessels. Winds remain below 10 knots until Friday evening and Saturday when southerly winds increase ahead of the next cold front. The front looks to be progressive enough to limit the impact to the coastal waters, but it is likely to cause steep seas and breezy conditions.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.