Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...E Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 7 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 8 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 8 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sun...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 252pm EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2025 Synopsis High pressure will remain northeast of the area through Wednesday. A cold front late Wednesday will bring an end to the warm stretch of weather beginning Thursday. Cool temperatures to follow for end of the week, with an offshore low possibly bringing rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding to the area Friday through Sunday. Near Term - Through Wednesday Night Latest surface analysis shows high pressure offshore well to the northeast, which extends back into the mid-Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. Onshore flow has continued all day, allowing for another round of isolated showers to pull inland from the coast. A line of light to moderate showers is pushing northwestward through the Pee Dee region, as of 2:15pm EDT this afternoon. More isolated activity expected later this afternoon and evening, especially along and north of Cape Fear. This activity should wane more after sunset tonight. Isolated to scattered showers will continue along the coastal waters tonight, and some may scrape the southeast NC coast off and on throughout the night. Lows in the mid- to-upper 60s. Patchy fog possible before and during sunrise Wednesday morning. One more unseasonably warm day ahead Wednesday before the cooling trend kicks off for the rest of the week. By Wednesday morning, a cold front will be situated across Appalachia, forecast to push across the Piedmont throughout the day, and then through the local forecast area and offshore throughout Wednesday night. Onshore flow will continue to bring in some isolated showers from the coastal waters throughout the morning. Meanwhile, pre-frontal warming causes temperatures to shoot up into the low-to-mid 80s for the final time this week. The activity picks up by the afternoon, with a loose convective line forming across the Pee Dee/NC coastal plain regions and moving to the ESE towards the coast. Widespread dewpoints in the lower 70s will provide enough buoyancy for scattered thunderstorms within the line, but forcing and mid-level lift looks pretty paltry, so severe weather is not expected. The line will try to make it to the coast by around sunset, though I wouldn't be surprised if it's later than that, as frontal systems historically slow down as they approach the coast. The front will continue to steadily push offshore throughout the nighttime hours, gradually decreasing the rain chances from the NNW to the SSE. Drier air immediately falls in behind the line. Dewpoints rapidly drop from the lower 70s to the upper 40s/mid 50s by daybreak Thursday. Short Term - Thursday and Thursday Night Quiet and cool Thursday with front well offshore and cool, dry air filtering in behind it. Highs Thursday will be around 70F, well below normal for this time of year, with some lingering clouds during the day. High pressure wedge begins to build down from the north Thursday, which will tighten the pressure gradient and produce northeasterly gusts 20-25 mph. Low temps Thursday night will drop down into the low 50s near the I-95 corridor and mid to upper 50s across coastal counties. Long Term - Friday Through Tuesday Main feature of the long term forecast will be an extratropical low pressure system off the Southeast coast. A potent 500mb shortwave digs into the Southeast Thursday into Friday. Height falls ahead of the shortwave will help spin up a low along the stalled offshore front, east of Florida on Friday before moving up the coast and off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday into Sunday. Ensemble guidance still shows a wide range of positions, and strength, for this low. Fairly confident in relatively cool and breezy conditions Friday through the weekend, with elevated northerly flow between the offshore low and high pressure inland. Minor coastal flooding is also likely along our coastline during each high tide into the weekend, particularly morning high tides. Current forecast has showers late Friday through Sunday with the low, especially for coastal areas, with rain amounts dependent on the position of the low (closer to coast could mean several inches of rain). Could also see an increase in forecasted wind gusts for the weekend depending on the track of the extratropical low. The aforementioned 500mb shortwave is forecast to merge with a trough to the north early next week and slowly move off the East Coast. Dry forecast returns for early next week, with temps slowly warming to near normal. Marine Through Wednesday Night...Easterly winds at 10 kts very gradually veer to the SSW by Wednesday morning, with gradient winds loosening to near 5-10 kts. Seas at 2-4 ft continue. A cold front will approach the coastal waters by Wednesday evening, gradually moving through the waters during the overnight hours of Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds quickly veer to the NNE, and the gradient tightens considerably. No Small Craft Advisory issued just yet, but we'll likely need one that starts sometime after 2am EDT Thursday. Seas follow the same trend, increasing rapidly to 3-4 ft at the coast, and 5-7 ft out 20 nm from shore. Thursday through Sunday...With front well offshore Thursday morning and high pressure wedge developing inland, northeast winds over the coastal waters will be strengthening quickly early Thursday. Sustained wind speeds around 25-30 kts forecasted for Thursday until around Saturday night, with slight shift from NE to N winds Saturday as an extratropical low moves north off the Southeast coast. Seas respond accordingly with building ENE swell, with 4-6 ft early Thursday increasing to 6-8 ft by Thursday night and staying elevated through the weekend. Could see 9-10 ft seas across the outer coastal waters (near 20nm from shore) Saturday, depending on strength and location of the low pressure system. Will see an increase in rain chances Friday through Sunday associated with the coastal low, with slight chance of thunderstorms. Tides / Coastal Flooding Onshore flow and high astronomical tides due to the recent full moon will bring minor tidal flooding with each morning high tide, and possibly the evening high tides as well, across most of the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River including downtown Wilmington, through at least Friday. Forecasted tide levels are highest Friday morning/midday, both along the coast and lower Cape Fear, potentially continuing through Saturday depending on track of offshore low pressure. Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for east and southeast facing beaches in our area due to 3-5 ft SE swell continuing to impact our beaches. May see high rip current risk return Thursday into the weekend for beaches north of Cape Fear due to strengthening ENE swell and a developing low pressure system off the coast. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9pm this evening to 1am EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8pm EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm to 11pm EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. Marine None. |
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