Marine Weather Net

Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


THROUGH 7 PM

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ250 Forecast Issued: 624 PM EST Thu Dec 01 2022

Through 7 Pm...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Early In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Fri Night...Se Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sat...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...W Winds 10 Kt, Becoming N With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.
Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon...Ne Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022

Synopsis
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail until a cold front approaches Saturday and moves through Saturday night. The front could then return back north through the area early next week.

Updated the temperature curve a bit as readings are dropping off more rapidly than expected otherwise forecast looks good.

Near Term - Through Friday
Latest surface analysis shows a strong dome of high pressure over the Kentucky/Ohio border, the southern extent of which easily reaches into the coastal Carolinas. Northerly flow has kept the area on the cool side all day long, with highs only in the mid 50s. A few cirrus clouds are moving in from the west, but some pretty stout radiational cooling is expected tonight. Most inland areas will sink below freezing tonight, with coastal areas lingering a few ticks above freezing.

High pressure moves eastward tonight, emerging along the mid- Atlantic coast by Friday morning, and gradually moving offshore by the afternoon. This causes winds to veer a bit more, with northeasterly trends in the morning becoming easterly by the afternoon. This introduces a little bit of WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) into the area, along with moisture return. Highs Friday range from near 60 inland to low- to-mid 60s closer to the coast. More clouds come into play, but ceilings remain high at 10000ft or more. Still plenty of sunshine expected in what will be a more seasonally normal day for early December.

Short Term - Friday Night Through Sunday
Flow switches to onshore at the start of the period, moving in slightly warmer and more moist air into the area. Lows Friday should be in the lower 50s nearest the coast, remaining in the 40s inland. A fairly expansive cold front will be making its way across the US, entering the Carolinas Saturday evening. POPs should increase across the area Saturdayam as we enter the warm sector out ahead of it, with highs getting near 70 and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over 1". Rainfall totals look to remain below a tenth of an inch. The front will then move through Saturday night into early Sunday with high pressure building back in behind it as we cool and dry out once more. Lows Saturday night drop into the 40s with highs Sunday in the mid to upper 50s.

Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Once offshore, the front from the short term to stall far to our south. Come Monday night, this front looks to move back up the east coast. Low rain chances persist through Monday into Tuesday, with flow shifting to out of the south as we move into a much warmer air mass for mid next week, highs nearing 70 once more. Another cold front then looks to move through Wednesday into Thursday as we cool to near seasonable.

Marine
Through Friday...Northeasterly winds expected through tonight, with occasional gusts up to 20kts expected over the next few hours, before dropping off by the evening. Pressure gradient relaxes from there, with sustained winds at 10-15kts, which veer to the ENE Friday morning, and easterly late in the period. Relatively benign seas with 1-3ft waves expected.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions look to hold through the end of the period amongst multiple frontal passages. SW'ly flow veers to NE'ly Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves through. This should persist before SW'ly flow returns at the end of the period behind a warm front. Seas 2-4 ft throughout the period. Dominant 2-3 ft ESE swell at 10-12 seconds builds in for early next week.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None.

Marine
None.