Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
645pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019
An upper level disturbance on Tuesday will be followed by high pressure that brings seasonable weather through the mid week period and a warmup on Friday. A cold front an upper disturbance could keep the weekend unsettled.
FOG: Visibility has dropped below 2 miles at Elizabethtown and Laurinburg. Given this early start and a long night to go of light winds with a moist boundary layer, I've beefed up overnight fog potential through Tuesday morning. HWO now mentions dense fog (<=1/4 mile) possible.
CLOUDS: Current low stratus is not well-analyzed by models either. I'm using GLAMP near-term forecast data to increase sky cover to 100 percent overnight for all areas except the Pee Dee region. For Darlington/Florence/Kingstree low clouds may erode temporarily this evening, but this should only open the window for radiational cooling and new fog/lower stratus redevelopment overnight.
TEMPERATURES: Raised forecast lows by ~1 degree inland and 2 degrees in the Cape Fear area based on the expectation of clouds inhibiting radiational cooling. Lows 41-45, warmest on the beaches.
COASTAL FLOODING: Emergency management from Surf City tells us persistent coastal flooding occurred on the back side of the island most of the afternoon. We'll further analyze the potential for a new coastal flood threat that may develop during Tuesday's noon high tide. For now, the HWO has been updated to address a possible threat.
Near Term - Through Tuesday Night
Rain coming to an end soon as shortwave disturbance swings through. Low level moisture remains trapped at this time beneath a fairly deep inversion and will continue to do so until around midday Tuesday. Thereafter boundary layer warm and temperatures aloft cool just enough to allow for more typical afternoon mixing. Breaks of sunshine will become more common-though perhaps not quite as quickly as previously thought if for no other reason some higher level moisture will linger. The more pronounced columnar drying is evident in forecast soundings after sunset. Nighttime lows will be fairly seasonable while Tuesday's high close to 60 will be milder than previous days they will still on average be 5-8 degrees below normal.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Expect basically a picture perfect day across the area Wednesday as surface high pressure settles across the region under a building albeit progressive mid level ridge. Highs will be in the lower to middle 60s with coolish overnight lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning's in the upper 30s to near 40.
Long Term - Thursday Through Monday
The upper pattern will remain progressive with ridging initially followed by a decent shortwave and attendant cold front moving across Friday and Saturday. The system appears to be trending a little more impressive from a Quantitative Precipitation Forecast standpoint as well. Brief troughing then a zonal flow appear to set up in the system's wake.
Conditions continue to improve as the weekend nor'easter continues to pull away from the area and its backswell energy continues to both abate and become increasingly shadowed locally by OBX. The gradient becomes weak tonight allowing winds to decrease to just 10 kt, though lingering/decreasing swells will make seas have trouble dipping much below 4 ft. These trends all continue Tuesday and Tuesday night save for the fact that winds could tick up a category Tuesday night behind a very weak boundary.
Expect offshore winds for the first of the marine forecast as high pressure builds into the area. A modest southwest flow will develop late in the week after high pressure shifts offshore and a cold front approaches. Winds and seas will probably be highest with the southwest flow, 15-20 knots and 3- to possibly 5 feet as what can normally be strong post frontal winds dont't appear that strong as the cold air advection is modest.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.