Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Today...E Winds 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Becoming S With Gusts Up To 45 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft In The Afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 30 To 35 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Mon...W Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon, Then Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Rain Through The Night.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
447am EST Sunday Jan 16 2022
An intense low pressure system will affect the area today through early Mon, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain and freezing rain away from the coast during this morning. In addition, strong and gusty winds, gale conditions and high surf and with the remote possibility of severe thunderstorms along the immediate coast. Benign high pressure will finally build in from the west late Monday, sliding overhead Tuesday night then off the coast and offshore Wed. A cold front accompanied with showers will move across the region Thu before stalling just offshore. Deepening low pressure may occur off the Carolina Coasts Fri before pushing further out to sea Sat. As a result, wintry precipitation may occur across the Coastal Carolinas.
Near Term - Through Tonight
Winter weather/rainfall event well underway this morning. A few changes are in order.
First the dry and cold air has been a little stronger mainly along the coast and really east of I-95. There have been some sleet reports and even a slight glazing here at the office on elevated surfaces. The 00 UTC NAM Nested model seemed to have the best handle on these events and used this model to nowcast for the next few hours. This required expanding the winter weather advisory slightly to the south and east to include New Hanover and Brunswick Counties. Any ice amounts should be minimal in these areas and temperatures should rise appreciably through the morning hours. Inland the forecast hasn't changed much with if anything surface temperatures a bit slower to drop. The winter weather advisory here will reflect mainly a quicker ending as temperatures should go above freezing a bit quicker again based on the NAM Nested guidance.
For the afternoon hours the strongly forced line of convection or more like heavy showers still on schedule to move across the area from west to east from about 1800 to 2100 UTC. HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance is showing gusts over the waters in excess of 50 knots at times with 40 plus along coastal areas. Storm Prediction Center continues to paint these areas (along the coast) in a marginal risk with damaging winds the main threat.
Finally considering the the winds for the coastal areas will hold off on a wind advisory for now as the strongest winds will occur with the line and may be best addressed with a special weather statement or special marine warning. The flow in the wake of the system will remain elevated for several hours overnight so a wind advisory may need to be revisited later especially after we get beyond the winter situation and or numbers increase.
Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night
By daybreak Mon, the upper low will have caught the surface low, and forecast to be over Eastern PA. Quite the expansive cyclone circulation encompassing 1/3rd of the Eastern U.S. The FA will continue to observe strong gusty SW to W winds Monday under mainly neutral air advection. Piece of mid-level vorticity, pinwheeling around the the upper closed low, will sweep across the FA and off the Carolina Coasts by mid-evening Mon. Surface trough will accompany this upper vort along with enough moisture to produce stratocu or low altocu clouds. Any possible precipitation should remain well north of the FA. Look for winds to veer to the NW thru the atm column and continue gusty at the surface Monday night into Tuesday along with decent CAA. The downslope trajectory should aid in scouring any leftover moisture Monday night into Tue. Flow aloft will flatten to more zonal aloft come Tuesday night. Center of surface high to track east across the FA Tuesday night resulting in winds dropping off quickly Tuesday afternoon and likely becoming calm Tuesday night. Mins both Monday and Tuesday nigheights should fall below freezing especially away from the immediate coast with Cold Air Advection aiding Monday night's lows and radiational cooling Tuesday night's. Only a 10-15 degree diurnal range expected Monday while Tuesday becomes more seasonable.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
Flow aloft somewhat zonal Wednesday into Thu allowing the surface high to slide off the Carolina Coasts and offshore. Will see warm air advection Wed into Wednesday night with temps back temporarily above normal by a cat or 2. Progressive mid-level s/w trough will help drive a cold front, with some Arctic origins, southeastward across the FA and off the coast and offshore before stalling during Thu. Showers will accompany this front and for now will indicate POPs in the modest chance category at best for now. 1040+ mb Canadian high vcnty of the GReat Lakes to hang back but to slowly ridge across the FA later Thu into Fri helping to provide much colder air, with below normal temps expected into Sat.
It's the Fri into Sat time-line that continues to raise questions. Models drive a mid-level clipper type system to the Carolinas resulting in a surface low development across the baroclinic zone just offshore, ie the stalled front. Models do throw back moisture to the ILM CWA coasts CWA later Fri into early Sat. With enough cold air in place, precipitation type will become quite interesting with the threat of wintry precipitation again but with snow a possibility. Have include wintry precipitation during this time- line but with POPs on the low side at best for the time being given how far5 out in time this occurs with likely models changing their respective solutions from this day forward.
Through Sunday Night... Marine forecast features the Gale Warning beginning this morning and continuing through early Monday morning. Strong sustained gradient winds at or near 30 knots develop this morning across all waters and continue thorough early morning Monday. There will almost certainly be an hour or two of stronger winds with the convective band moving across this afternoon but the transitory nature of this features will seemingly be better served by Special Marine Warnings. Significant seas of course will be worked up accordingly with 6 feet in the surf zone to 10-12 feet outer waters. Citing this a High Surf Advisory continues and has been expanded to include all areas.
Monday through Thursday... Gale conditions expected Monday due to the expansive cyclonic circulation and tight gradient associated with the strong low slowly moving across the NE States. Winds 30-45 kt just off the deck will occasionally mix down to the ocean surface resulting in 35 to 45 kt gusts especially early on. A surface trough pinwheeling around the low will push off the Carolina Coasts Monday evening with WSW-W winds becoming NW along with another round of Cold Air Advection following. Gales possible early Monday night otherwise, Strong SCA conditions should prevail as the surface pg finally begins to loosen-some. Tue, look for vast improvements to both winds and seas as the surface pg loosens considerably and the primary wind driven seas subside. With a primarily an offshore trajectory (true offshore Monday night thru Tue), seas will range from lowest at the coast to highest 20 nm out. The exception will be the waters from south of Cape Fear to Murrells Inlet where westerly winds actually will be parallel to the coast and as a result seas will be locally hier waters south of Cape Fear. Center of surface high moves across the waters and offshore Tuesday night thru Wed with docile winds and seas expected. For Thu, a CFP will be accompanied with scattered showers, light SW-W winds ahead of the cold front will become NW-N at likely SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds as the surface pg tightens combined with post CFP Cold Air Advection as portions of a 1040+ mb Canadian high begins to blanket the local waters.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-059. High Surf Advisory from 11am this morning to 4am EST Monday for SCZ054-056. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. High Surf Advisory from 11am this morning to 4am EST Monday for NCZ106-108-110.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Gale Warning until 10am EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.