Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw This Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 8 Seconds. Showers Likely. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: N 6 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: N 6 Ft At 6 Seconds, Becoming Ne 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 1 Ft At 2 Seconds. |
| Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 642am EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Synopsis Mild conditions today and tonight ahead of an arctic cold front Sunday morning. Ahead of the front light showers will move across the region. Unseasonably cold temperatures arrive Sunday night and linger through Monday night. Temperatures will gradually warm up next week as high pressure moves overhead. Near Term - Through Tonight Sill remaining under the longwave upper trough. this period. Sfc high overhead this morning, will slide off the Carolina Coasts later this morning. This will leave a rather weak surface pg across Southeast NC and Northeast SC, under mainly clear skies. The upper trough to amplify later today thru tonight, forcing the nearly 1050 mb arctic high S and SE ward. By the end of this period, later tonight, the Arctic high will be on the doorsteps of the FA along with the Arctic front. Increasing moisture, mainly during the pre-dawn Sunday hrs, will result in clouds increasing and the threat for precipitation mainly far NW portions of the ILM CWA. Look for increasing temps this period that should actually run slightly above normal for this time of the year. Normal is generally in the mid to upper 50s for maxes and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Short Term - Sunday Through Monday Night Main concern for the short term will be the unseasonably cold air, the coldest of this young season in fact. Strong cold front on the doorstep Sunday morning which surges across the area and offshore by midday. Ahead of the front a narrow, but deep, stream of moisture will push precipitable water over 200% of normal. Low level convergence and limited dynamical forcing as weak low moves along the front should lead to a swath of showers moving across the forecast area during the morning. Widely scattered showers will likely be ongoing across the western half of the area at daybreak Sun. Strong cold advection will lead to temperatures falling through the day, even as skies clear out behind the front. Highs will occur in the morning, making the high temp forecast tricky. Most areas will end up within sight of normal, but Sunday morning is the last time temperatures will be within shouting distance of normal until the middle of next week, maybe. 850mb temperatures drop from 6 to 8C Sunday morning to -6 to -10C just 12 hours later. Winds will be gusty Sunday afternoon as the cold air announces its arrival, leading to a very raw day. Lows Sunday night will approach records with mid teens across the area. However, the bigger concern will be the wind chill. Values will drop under 10 degrees in some areas. Cold advection ends by Monday morning, with even a hint of some warm advection later in the day. Not that it will do much against the dense cold air. Highs Monday end up right around 40, or just below it. Lows Monday night in the low to mid 20s with much less wind making it feel almost 20 degrees warmer than the night before. As moist as the pre-frontal air is, the post front air mass will be extremely dry. Precipitable water drops to 10% of normal by Sunday evening, under 0.10". Slight uptick in moisture for Monday with PWAT (Precipitable Water) around 0.20". The lack of moisture will keep skies clear through Monday night once clouds clear out in the post front regime. Afternoon humidity will drop to near 20% Monday afternoon and wouldn't be shocked to see values dip into the teens. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday Arctic high from the beginning of the week will be overhead Tuesday morning. Temperatures will climb close to 30 degrees by afternoon, although highs will still fall several degrees short of normal. Weak warm advection continues through Thu with highs back near normal Wednesday and above normal Thu. Although low level moisture makes a quick return, dry air aloft hangs around through Wednesday night. Another cold front approaches from the northwest later Thu, bringing with it some scattered showers. The front end the week is the polar opposite of the one that starts the week. The incoming air mass has its origins in the Pacific Maritimes, not Arctic Canada. Much less cold air and little to no dry air. Temperatures will drop a bit Fri and Fri night, but the region will still be at or just above normal. Marine Through Tonight Expect Light and variable (will identify a best direction in lieu of going variable) winds during the pre- dawn hrs into daylight Sat. The surface high will slide off the Carolina Coasts later today, resulting in winds becoming SW 5 to 10 kt. As the Arctic front approaches the waters from the NW, look for SW winds to increase to possibly SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late tonight. Seas will follow suit, at their lowest at the start of this period, building as surface winds increase. Majority of the seas will result from short period wind waves. An underlying but small SE ground swell to remain present and accounted for. Sunday through Wednesday... Strong cold front moves across the waters around midday Sunday with offshore flow ramping up late Sunday and Sunday night as cold air surges into the region. Borderline SCA/Gale event, holding off for now on issuance of any headlines given the uncertainty/low confidence. Do have high confidence of almost 24 hours of nasty marine conditions, late Sunday through midday Mon. However, once speeds drop under 10 kt Monday evening winds will remain 10 kt or less through Wed. Seas are quick to ramp up to 4-7 ft late Sunday into Mon, but then rapidly fall later Mon, ending up 2-3 ft Monday night. A northerly wind wave will be the dominant wave Sunday night and Mon. Seas 2 ft or less Tuesday and Wednesday with a weak southeast swell being dominant. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Marine None. |
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