Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 932am EDT Sat April 26 2025 Synopsis A cold front approaches today with an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the day. High pressure will build in behind the front Sunday into early next week with dry conditions. Above normal temperatures begin Tuesday, with rain chances returning late next week. Weak convection moving into the forecast area from the west is associated with a pre-frontal trough. Although the current activity is weak, barely showers at this point, the trough and associated moisture is moving toward an area with clear skies, and the expectation that heating will push SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg. This will set the stage for increased strength and coverage of storms in the afternoon. Overall forecast thinking has not changed, but adjustments were made based on latest high resolution guidance and current conditions. Near Term - Through Tonight A mid-level shortwave trough is evident over the southern Appalachians as per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with decaying convection in the zone of PVA just ahead of its axis. Outflow has raced out of the earlier convective line and should slide through the CWA (County Warning Area) before sunrise, with a temporary push of westerly flow behind the boundary. Some warming of air temps is being observed upstream (e.g., KCAE) as increased winds promote mixing of an otherwise stably-stratified nocturnal boundary layer, and this should be the same effect observed across the area. During the day, the mid-level shortwave trough will continue eastward and its axis is forecast to pass overhead this afternoon. Near the surface, a pre-frontal trough associated with the PVA aloft may flare up with isolated to scattered convection late this morning as it encounters a diurnally destabilizing air mass near and west of I-95, although how much instability manages to develop will be affected by debris clouds behind the earlier outflow boundary. This surface trough will continue eastward to the coast, with scattered convection likely to flare up along it as SBCAPE reaches the 1000- 2000 J/kg range amidst little to no capping inversion. With weak to modest effective shear around 15-25 kts, convection should struggle to organize, but a couple line segments with swaths of gusty to perhaps locally damaging winds are possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for isolated storms which could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts up to 60mph as well as small hail. After the daytime convection wanes with the loss of heating, another line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the actual cold front dropping southeastward. Of course, if prior convective activity uses up the instability over our area, then no more than some decaying showers should make it into the area, but this will need to be monitored. Furthermore, given that the timing of this front should be multiple hours after dark, any thunderstorms along the front across central NC should be waning on its way into the CWA anyway as instability weakens due to nocturnal cooling. Behind the front, a solid push of gusty northerly winds can be expected with low temps dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s. Short Term - Sunday Through Sunday Night Dry weather and somewhat cooler temps return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned cold front pushes offshore and surface high pressure builds in behind it. High temps Sunday in the mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Sunday night will be the coolest night of next week with low temps around 50 inland and mid 50s at the coast, with light winds and a mostly clear sky. Long Term - Monday Through Friday Long term period will be characterized by warming temps and a trend towards wetter conditions later in the week. Upr-level ridging over the eastern CONUS will allow for dry weather Monday through Wednesday, along with temps rising to above normal starting Tuesday...highs over 80 inland. Further warming for Wednesday (highs potentially reaching 90 in the warmest spots) with the ridge axis over the area and breezy SW winds. Continued warm Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s, but with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy embedded in the SW flow aloft traverses the area while deep-layer moisture slightly increases. Marine Through Tonight Steady south-southwesterly winds will continue today into tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A wave of showers and thunderstorms will likely affect the coastal waters this afternoon as a pre-frontal trough pushes through during the day, with additional showers possible overnight as the cold front drops southeastward. This front will bring a sharp wind shift to northerly in its wake as cooler and drier air filter in late in the night. Wave heigheights around 2-3 ft today into tonight will increase late in the night as winds pick up behind the front. The wave spectrum will be a combination of 2-3 ft southeasterly swells with a period around 9 sec with 2-3 ft southerly wind waves developing this afternoon and waning overnight. Sunday through Wednesday...The Cold Air Advection following the cold frontal passage tonight is not strong enough for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions Sunday, but expect a brief period of 15-20 kt northerly winds Sunday morning with 3-4 ft seas. Generally benign marine conditions thereafter through mid week as surface high pressure builds over the waters. With the high well offshore on Wednesday will see a slight uptick in winds (to ~15 kt out of the SSW) as the pressure gradient increases, but no headlines are anticipated. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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