Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Through 7 Am...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Ne With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 639am EDT Sunday Mar 26 2023 Synopsis A stalled cold front will lead to increasing rain chances through the early week. A cool front will move across the area Monday night with a stronger cold front moving through Tuesday night followed by dry high pressure. No major changes with the latest update but did back off on the rain a bit initially and lowered highs a bit across the north. Near Term - Through Tonight Today: The main concern this period will be the low risk for a few severe storms as a shortwave moves east through the Carolinas. As per usual there is sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization but the main question remains how much instability will develop. Much of the guidance seems to suggest CAPE of at least 1000 J/kg will develop across much of the area, with the NAM pretty aggressive with over 2000 J/kg, especially in eastern portions of northeast SC. Although damaging winds are most likely across the entire area, we cannot rule out tornadoes or large hail as well (mainly in SC where the low to mid-level instability and low-level shear/helicity should be greatest). As far as timing, could see stronger storms pushing into far inland areas near I-95 during the late morning/early afternoon and then progressing eastward toward the coast through much of the afternoon. Otherwise, should see some much needed rainfall with at least 0.5" a pretty good bet most locales with an inch or more possible, especially inland. Highs will be greatly dependent on the amount of low clouds/fog this morning and higher clouds through the day but should reach the mid 70s most inland spots with some upper 70s or even lower 80s possible east of Kingstree toward Georgetown. Tonight: Most, if not all, of the widespread/steadier rain should be ending by early evening but another round should fire up late across inland areas as another shortwave is forecast to shift eastward through the Carolinas. Most of the rainfall should be across the northern and western parts of the forecast area closer to the surface front and another half inch or more is a good bet. Expect another unusually mild night with lows mostly near 60. Short Term - Monday Through Tuesday Night Rain continues into the short term with a front stalled just to our north and a passing shortwave aloft. Lingering instability could lead to isolated storm activity but with the shortwave moving offshore by the start of the period it is uncertain how much precipitation will linger in our area instead of pushing offshore. Areas outside of our most inland counties will remain in a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for possibly damaging wind gusts as flow aloft, particularly along the coast, remains near 40kt. Low clouds could scatter out slightly later in the day with cirrus persisting overnight. Monday's highs should fall near 80, a few degrees lower along the coast. Lows will be in the mid 50s, perhaps a bit warmer in our southern areas due to the lack of extensive Cold Air Advection behind the front. Low shower chances could persist along the coast into early Tuesday despite entrainment of drier air from the NW as the cold air continues to lag to the north. A wave of moisture paired with spotty PVA aloft looks to ride up the coast Tuesday afternoon, but deterministic guidance is suggesting our northern areas may stay dry with a majority of the rain remaining to our south. Decreased POPs accordingly. Cold Air Advection then starts to pick up into Tuesday night as deep northerly flow takes hold. A mix of mid and high clouds persist throughout the day. Tuesday's highs near 70 with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday Dry high pressure builds in behind the front through the rest of the work week under largely zonal flow aloft. Riding starts to build in late Thursday with high pressure moving overhead. Warmer air starts to filter in aloft from the SW as high pressure continues to push offshore Friday ahead of our next system. Deep SW flow will lead to POPs ramping up headed into the weekend with another cold frontal passage expected at the end of the period. Highs look to warm from the 60s into the 80s by the weekend day to day. Wednesday night looks to be the coldest with lows near 40, possibly lower if winds calm overnight under clear skies. Marine across SE NC and NE SC. Earlier stratus/fog near the coast has vanished but could re- develop. Also, some fog has developed inland and additional low clouds are moving in from the west so still think all terminals will likely see at least MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions by daybreak with restrictions likely continuing much of the rest of the TAF period as a line of showers and embedded storms moves into the area from the west later this morning through much of the afternoon, with low clouds and some showers/fog lingering even after the main bout of rain ends. Monday through Thursday... Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected through the period amidst shower and storm chances. These may persist overnight into Tuesday with lower coverage before increasing once more Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Clearing is expected after the cold front moves through the area late Tuesday. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt through early Monday, veering to NE'ly by early Tuesday and becoming 10-15 kt. Wind speeds increase once more late Tuesday into Wednesday as the front moves through, decreasing through the day and becoming SW'ly by the end of the period. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories SC...None. NC...None. Marine None. |
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