Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Pm...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
301pm EDT Sunday July 3 2022
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. Typical summertime heat and humidity will persist all of this week with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
Near Term - Through Monday
Thunderstorms will continue for a couple hours after sunset this evening due to the elevated instability and nearby stationary front. A collection of outflows and a residual sea breeze will also work with the weak front to maintain shower chances for a few hours past the diurnal normal. Given the slow storm motion, some areas could see periods of heavy rainfall from training or slow-moving storms therefore, with the rainfall from Friday and Saturday, minor flooding is possible. Impressive instability profiles inland may allow for a few strong storms and isolated strong wind gusts in any downdrafts.
The surface front remains weak as it drifts southward on Monday morning and completely stalls north of the area. A moist air mass and early surface heating will lead to the development of scattered showers and storms for July 4th. Patchy fog will also be possible on Monday morning given the weak winds and available pool of moisture near the surface. The best chance appears to be in southern and central NC. Temperatures will remain around 5 degrees cooler than Sunday as flow becomes easterly and a mix of clouds and sun limit our heating potential. The focus for potential thunderstorm hazard shifts to the potential for heavy rainfall and minor flooding as slow storm motion and weak shear keep severe chances low.
Short Term - Monday Night Through Tuesday Night
Stalled front in the vicinity Monday night dissipates Tuesday with surface and mid-level high in place. Typical summer pattern sets up with surface high offshore and Piedmont trough developing Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show some weak mid-level subsidence which may work to hinder diurnal convection. However, the Piedmont trough and sea breeze will likely be able to fire off a few storms in what will be a very moist environment. Precipitable water will be over 2 inches and there is always the potential for a shortwave rounding the top of the ridge and moving in from the northwest. GFS/EC both suggest there will be potential for a shortwave or two, but timing remains uncertain. Highs will be near climo with debris clouds and low level moisture keeping lows a little above climo.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
Pretty typical pattern in place at the surface for the long term with Bermuda High offshore and a daily Piedmont trough. Ridging aloft will be displaced to the south and west, which will result in an extended period of northwest flow aloft. This setup tends to lead to warm temps and rounds of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Pattern is also one that tends to result in shortwaves and MCS moving in from the northwest. Hard to pin point any favored day at this point, but potential for strong to severe storms will be present. Storm motion will also be on the low side which, given precipitable water over 2 inches, could pose a localized flooding threat. Temperatures will run a little above climo.
Through Monday: Southerly flow around 15-20 knots will continue this evening ahead of a weak cold front dropping south overnight. As the front approaches our area, winds will become light, variable, and eventually onshore. Easterly winds remain light on Monday with the front just north of the area. Rain chances increase tonight ahead of the front and continue into Monday with the stalled boundary to our north. Seas 2-4 feet with a southerly swell around 8- 9 seconds persisting into the holiday.
Monday Night through Friday: Surface high sets up offshore Monday night into Tuesday setting up an extended period of south to southwest flow. Initially flow will be around 10 kt, but gradient tightens up with development of Piedmont trough and by Wednesday speeds will be closer to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft through midweek increase to 3 to 4 ft due to enhanced/prolonged southerly flow. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southeast swell and a weak south to southwest wind wave.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.