Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
742pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021
A cold front will bring a chance of showers to the region late tonight into Thursday followed by drier and cooler conditions. Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend with low rain chances as a weak low pressure system moves offshore.
Breezy seabreeze winds are seamlessly merging into a 40 knot low level jet ahead of an area of low pressure moving eastward across the NC/VA border. Surface winds along the coast should diminish after midnight as the low moves offshore. Deep daytime mixing was insufficient to Probability of Precipitation convection, however increasing moisture around 700 mb could create scattered high-based convection overnight. I'll maintain 20-40 Probability of Precipitation mainly after midnight for this potential. No significant changes were needed to sky or temperatures.
For the coastal waters, latest high-res model blends indicate we may experience very marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions away from shore near Cape Fear overnight. The strongest winds appear they will occur between 04-08z (Midnight-4am EDT). I'll maintain the advisory for, but pending further model and observational data I may remove a portion of the advisory along the South Carolina coastline with the next update.
Near Term - Through Thursday Night
A mild night ahead of an approaching cold front, tonight's lows about equidistant from climatological lows as highs. The front itself weak and deep layer lift quite lacking, so any rain that falls will be extremely light and quite scattered in nature. After a possible lull towards daybreak rain chances return later Thursday with a secondary front. Once again, this boundary isn't impressively strong nor is the deep layer lift. A few showers appear possible, warranting a middle of the road 'chance' POP. Could't really justify putting in thunder based upon forecast soundings. Cool advection behind the boundary to drive lows into the upper 40s Thursday night. And while this sounds chilly it only represents a few degrees shy of climo; we just haven't had a night so cool in some time.
Short Term - Friday Through Saturday Night
High pressure will build into the region Friday under a zonal flow aloft. The same flow aloft will bring some mid level energy across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday with a warm front developing at the surface. Enough moisture and lift may develop to create a few showers across the area especially southern zones with chance pops. Highs Friday and Saturday will be similar with clouds and moisture offsetting some air mass modification Saturday. Overnight lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with the warmer numbers Sunday morning.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
Medium range guidance has come into better agreement for late weekend into next week with a drier scenario. Any southern stream dynamics should be offshore and shunted to the south Sunday into basically the remainder of the period. There are some indications of a developing offshore system very late and have maintained some activity mainly in the outer coastal zones. With the lack of amplitude expect little change to the airmass thus slow warming is once again noted in the forecast.
Through Thursday Night... Small Craft Advisory still in effect for the overnight hours though confidence is pretty low that conditions will deteriorate sufficiently even as a weak cold front moves through. A secondary front will push through Thursday with just a little bit more vigor, at least with respect to the prospect of bringing cooler air. From a marine standpoint however wind and seas will remain below advisory thresholds though the wind shift associated with its passage will be much more pronounced; the net effect likely some steepening of wave faces.
Friday through Monday
Friday presents a few more hours of a decent northeast flow before a weak pressure pattern develops thus making wind direction more erratic. For the most part a south to southwest direction will be in place most of Saturday at or below ten knots. More of an offshore component develops late in the weekend into early next week although speeds remain tepid. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early then basically 1-3 feet mostly following the trajectory of the wind speeds.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11pm this evening to 3am EDT Thursday for NCZ107.
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.