Surf City to Cape Fear, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Through 7 Am...W Winds 5 Kt. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Today...N Winds 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight.|
|Thu...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Isolated Showers. Isolated Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon, Then Becoming W In The Evening, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
401am EDT Wednesday Oct 28 2020
High pressure will continue to bring quiet and mild weather this evening. The remnants of Zeta will move across the southern Appalachians Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area early Friday bringing scattered showers. Cooler and drier weather will arrive on Saturday with a slight chance of showers returning on Sunday ahead of the next cold front.
Near Term - Through Thursday
Main concern for the next 36 hours is potential for severe weather Thursday with the remnants of Zeta moving through the Carolinas.
Quiet weather on tap for today outside some locally dense morning fog and overcast clouds, but clearing should occur during the mid to late morning hours and lead to a nice fall day. Highs today in the upper 70s to low 80s is a little warmer than average for late October.
The weather gets more interesting Thursday as the remnants of tropical system Zeta approach the region. With the influx of the tropical air mass, warmer temperatures in the low to mid 80s and increasing dew points into the 70s will increase the humidity factor will give a more summer feel to the weather. Chances for rain increase by mid to late morning and chances for isolated thunder possible during the afternoon. An assessment of model soundings show plenty of moisture and lower instability aloft, however plenty of lower level speed shear could lead to a damaging wind threat and a chance for some tornadoes. While the center of Zeta is forecast to move well to the west of the forecast area, some atmospheric spin aloft is available. While all ingredients do not necessarily line up Thursday late morning and afternoon, there is a non zero chance for some stronger storms to develop and produce a damaging wind gust and a few tornadoes. Now would be a good time to ensure multiple ways of receiving warnings and be weather aware for Thursday.
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
A cold front over the southern US will follow the remnant low late Thursday and Thursday night. The area is likely to see breezy winds, scattered showers, and a slight chance of a thunderstorm with warm moist air ahead of the front priming the atmosphere with elevated weak instability. With the approaching front, increased shear, and low-level wind field primed by the previous remnant low, an isolated damaging wind gust or brief tornado could be possible. Cold front pushes through the area by Friday morning as cooler and drier air rush into the area and keeps temperatures slightly below normal.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
Cool and dry air will continue to persist into Saturday with plenty of sunshine and slightly below normal temperatures. Coastal trough will develop on Sunday ahead of another strong cold front. Isolated showers are possible on Sunday afternoon, mainly along the coast with the weak trough building inland. Strong cold front will move through the area overnight Sunday into early Monday, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Strong cold air advection will funnel into the area and keep temperatures well below-normal; some areas could remain in the 50s all day. On Monday night, clearing skies will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 40s or upper 30s. Some areas could wake up to the first front of the season on Tuesday morning, but light winds overnight could be enough to limit the radiational cooling potential. Cooler temperatures will continue through mid-week, finally ushering in consistent fall-like weather.
Today through Thursday...Benign sea conditions today with waveheigheights on the order of 1 to 2 feet and generally onshore winds below 10 kts. Conditions worsen tonight into Thursday with the approach of the remnant Zeta system inland and will lead to an increase of winds and waves heading into Thursday. Strong likelihood of needing a small craft advisory for inexperienced mariners and smaller vessels navigating the coastal waters Thursday with seas between 6 and 8 feet and south/southwest winds 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 kts at times. Thunderstorms are also a possibility with locally higher winds and waves, and a potential for some waterspouts Thursday.
Thursday Night through Sunday... Breezy SW winds over the coastal waters 20-30 knots will lead to the onset of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions and seas building 5-8 feet. Winds will quickly veer, becoming NW by Friday morning, and northerly at around 20 knots by late afternoon. Seas will remain elevated through Sat with NE winds 15-20 knots. These NE surges tend to be slightly stronger than models indicate, so will keep the possibility of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Weak coastal trough will develop on Sunday and lead to the development of onshore flow, finally bringing a break in potential SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Showers on Sunday will develop ahead of the next cold front which may bring another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions early next week.
NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None.