Marine Weather Net

Alligator River Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ131 Forecast Issued: 1023 PM EST Wed Feb 08 2023

Overnight...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Flat, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Showers.
Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy. Showers Likely.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves Rough. Showers.
Sun...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Rough, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon, Then Increasing To Choppy. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers.
Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Se Around 5 Kt In The Evening, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon, Then Diminishing To Flat In The Evening, Increasing To Light Chop After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347am EST Thu Feb 9 2023

Synopsis
Mild and mostly dry weather is expected today as low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. Rain chances increase on Friday as a cold front crosses the area. A stronger low pressure system impacts the area from Saturday night through Sunday night, bringing widespread rain. High pressure returns early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 345am EST Thursday... High pressure continues to shift offshore early this morning, while deepening ~999 mb low pressure is tracking NNE across central MO. A cold front extends south to the warning Gulf coast. Locally, the low level flow has become light out of the SE. Temperatures are in the 40s-lower 50s with mid to high clouds over the area (mainly N). Some of theNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
ance continues to hint at patchy FG development on the eastern shore, so have included this in the grids. Any fog that does form should dissipate by mid to late morning.

The low is forecast to quickly track NE through the Great Lakes today while the trailing cold front approaches the region. However, the front will weaken as it approaches and the best upper dynamics will pass well to our north. As a result...the precipitation associated with the front will weaken significantly as it tracks into/across the area this aftn/evening. Will continue to cap Probability of Precipitation at slight chance from 18z/1pm today-06z/1am Fri. In fact, skies should be no worse than partly to mostly cloudy today (with more sunshine in SE VA/NE NC). There will be an increase in SSW winds today (to 10-15 mph...with gusts to 25 mph), and mild weather is expected once again with highs mainly in the 60s on the eastern shore...and lower 70s elsewhere.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday
As of 345am EST Thursday... Mild weather continues tonight-Fri as the surface low tracks into southern Ontario/Quebec. This feature will drag a cold front to just about our CWA (County Warning Area) border by 12z/7am Fri. Meanwhile...an amplifying trough aloft just to the west of the MS River Valley Fri will allow secondary surface low pressure to start developing INVOF the eastern Gulf coast. Rain (and perhaps a tstm or two in NE NC) will increase along the front by late Fri aftn-Fri evening. The latest 00z guidance is a bit quicker with the cold FROPA on Fri, and therefore suppresses the moisture on Fri a bit farther to the south than it appeared at this time yesterday. Probability of Precipitation increase to 70-80% SE/20-30% NW by late Fri. Highs mainly in the 60s-70F. Most of the precipitation likely becomes confined to the Carolinas by late Fri night as the front moves to our south. With the farther south trend, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Fri night is less than 0.05" NW of a FVX-RIC-WAL line, with 0.3-0.6" in far SE VA and NE NC. Cooler Fri night with lows in the u30s-m40s.

Intense upper level low pressure is forecast to dive to the central Gulf coast by Sat afternoon while surface low pressure begins to deepen INVOF the FL Panhandle. There has been a trend for Saturday to be relatively dry (aside for perhaps some light rain in far southern VA and NE NC) as weak high pressure over PA allows cooler/drier air at the low-levels to overspread much of the area. In fact, dew points are forecast to drop well into the 20s N by the afternoon across the NW half of the FA. The highest Probability of Precipitation Sat afternoon will be over far southern VA and NE NC (20-40%...with Probability of Precipitation below 15% central/north). Highs Sat mainly in the m40s-around 50F. Additional Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts on Sat are no higher than 0.05".

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 345am EST Thursday... Global deterministic models (GFS/ECMWF) and their respective ensembles (GEFS/EPS) have had much better run-to-run consistency during the past 24 hours (with a slight trend to the west in the low track). The consensus forecast shows surface low pressure deepening as it tracks from the GA coast to just off the coast of VA/MD from Sat night-Sunday night while the closed upper low tracks from the interior SE CONUS states to eastern NC. Precipitation is forecast to overspread the area from S to N Sat night and continue through Sunday before tapering off Sunday night. The GEFS continues to be a bit colder than the EPS...but the 00z runs of both ensembles have trended down (in terms of snow probabilities) when compared to yesterday's 00z and 12z runs, with the highest snow probs in the mountains well to our west. The latest 00z EPS has no snow probs in our area with the exception of Louisa/Fluvanna Counties. Given the absence of strong hi pressure to the N (and in reality a lack of any source of (even at least normal) cold air)...precipitation looks to be mainly rain for the FA from Sat night-Sunday night. At this time, it looks like the best chance of any wintry precipitation (light snow/sleet) will be in the Piedmont at the onset of the precipitation late Sat night-early Sunday AM. Temperatures are forecast to be at or above freezing through the duration of the event. Precipitation will change to rain by mid-late morning, with a steady moderate rain (perhaps briefly heavy in SE VA/NE NC) continuing before tapering off Sunday night. Ensemble means continue to show a widespread 1-2" of precipitation from Sat night-Sunday night. While it is too early for specifics, breezy to perhaps windy conditions will likely develop from Sun-Sunday night as the low approaches from the S and the pressure gradient tightens.

Conditions improve/dry out in most areas by Monday morning. Right now...it appears that high pressure and dry weather returns Mon-Tuesday as ridging aloft rebuilds INVOF the SE CONUS. Another cold front may affect the FA w/ possible SHRAs Wed.

Lows Sat night generally in the l30s W to around 40F at the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Highs Sunday mainly in the 40-45F range inland to the u40s- m50s at the coast. Lows Sunday night mainly in the 30s. Highs Monday in the l-m50s on the eastern shore to the m-u50s inland. Highs Tuesday in the u50s-l60s. Highs Wednesday in the l-m60s.

Marine
As of 930pm EST Wednesday... Latest obs reflect light E-SE flow over the local waters this evening. Surface high pressure remains in place over the local waters, and will push offshore overnight. E-SE swell which prompted Small Craft Advisories over the coastal zones have been allowed to expire this evening north of the VA/NC border. Will maintain SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for far southern waters for the overnight hours, though seas will slowly continue to slowly subside through around sunrise Thursday morning, and given current trends, expect SCA (Small Craft Advisory) would be lowered by around that time.

However, another round of Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed for tomorrow night into Friday ahead the next system. A strong area of low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio River Valley to Great Lakes tomorrow, with the trailing strong cold front dropping across the waters early Fri morning. Increasing (pre-frontal) S-SSW winds are expected Thursday evening, likely reaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds at least over the Bay and ocean zones north of Parramore Island later Thu evening into early Friday, with a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possible farther south as well. Lighter winds then briefly return for Friday into Saturday ahead of the next storm system.

A strong area of low pressure is forecasted to develop along the SE coast this weekend. The center of low pressure may remain to the south of the area with strong N-NE winds possible. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday and into Sunday, with best chances over the lower Bay, lower James River and southern coastal zones.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4am EST Friday for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 4am EST Friday for ANZ631-632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7am EST Friday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ658.