Alligator River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt Late. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat Late. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Evening. |
| Wed...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sun...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 735pm EDT Tuesday August 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 00z TAF/Aviation update .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday. 2) Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. As of 310pm EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonally warm temperatures and comfortable humidity continue through Wednesday. Latest weather analysis shows an upper level trough across the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast regions with surface level high pressure over the area. Pleasant conditions are noted with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and mostly sunny skies. High pressure will remain over the area tonight and begin pushing offshore Wednesday, which will allow pleasant conditions again tonight with lows in the lower 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast (a few upper 50s may be observed in the piedmont). Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s, as the high pressure begins moving offshore shifting the winds out of the S. Dewpoints will increase as well, but overall, humidity levels will remain tolerable for August. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled conditions return mid to late week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Global models indicate that surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast later Wednesday into Thursday and the flow aloft shifts back to the SW. A few showers/thunderstorms could creep into western portions of the area late Wednesday evening. A slow moving front approaches the area Thursday bringing the best chance for showers/storms on Thursday and Friday. The severe threat seems low at this time for both days from weaker upper flow (500 mb flow around 20-25 kt). Showers are possible in the mornings both days, which could further hinder the severe threat. However, if precipitation can hold off until the afternoon hours a few stronger thunderstorms are possible, especially given that our local area will be under the RRQ of a strengthening jet core over New England. The main threat will be locally heavy rain from showers/thunderstorms. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday, but given the setup, the showers/storms seem scattered by nature causing a lower confidence in flooding. The consensus amongst the 12z/25 models pushes the front S Saturday with the best shower/tstm chances across SE VA/NE NC, then trending drier Sunday/Monday with Probability of Precipitation near to slightly below climo. Seasonally hot and humid Thursday through Sunday with high temperatures primarily in the mid 80s, and potentially trending above average into the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday. Marine As of 310pm EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Mostly benign marine conditions expected through the forecast period. - Watching for a brief period of Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay Wednesday evening into early Thursday as southerly winds increase for a time. High pressure building across the marine area will allow winds to continue to relax heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. Light and variable winds are expected tonight with high pressure in control. The high shifts offshore Wednesday and winds are forecast to become southerly in response. A 6-9 hr period of southerly winds gusting to 20-25 kt is possible late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, which could necessitate marginal Small Craft Advisories in the Chesapeake Bay. Winds then become S 10-15 kt Thursday and then S- SW 5-10 kt Friday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are expected for the upcoming weekend. Seas average 2-3 ft Wednesday-Sunday. The chance for thunderstorms is very low until Thursday-Friday. Rip Currents A 10-12 sec long-period (but weak) swell will combine with the short-period wind swell from the northerly winds today. With nearshore waves nearing 2-3 ft, will have a Moderate rip current risk for VA Beach and the northern OBX. Expect a low risk elsewhere and a low risk at all beaches Wednesday. A Moderate risk is possible at the northern beaches by Thursday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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