Alligator River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To Around 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 421pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023 Synopsis Low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the North Carolina coast this evening into Wednesday night bringing clouds and isolated to scattered showers. Gradually improving conditions are expected later this week, as high pressure builds into the area and low pressure weakens offshore. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning As of 400pm EDT Tuesday... Late this afternoon. weak surface low pressure was spinning off the NC coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure was centered over New England and Atlantic Canada. The sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the area with the latest radar showing isolated to sctd showers moving across portions of the region from east to west. Temps were ranging through the 60s into the lower 70s. Surface low pressure will linger off the NC coast tonight, as high pressure nudges into the VA Piedmont resulting in NE flow and a partly cloudy or cloudy sky. Expect isolated to sctd showers into this evening, then just isolated chances tonight into early Wednesday morning. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Friday As of 400pm EDT Tuesday... Low pressure retrogrades back toward the NC coast during Wed, as high pressure remains anchored off the New England coast. This will result continued unsettled and mostly cloudy conditions. However, the low and hence the forcing will diminish with Probability of Precipitation lowering to 20-30% toward the coast and 15% or less well inland. High temps on Wednesday will range from the upper 60s along the coast, to the mid 70s well inland. The low weakens and sinks southward Wednesday night through Thu, as high pressure and some drier air pushes in from the NNE. Clouds will be slow to clear Wednesday night, esply over eastern and srn/SE areas, with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Clearing will occur over nrn/NW locations during Thu, while clouds persist along the SE/southern areas. Highs will range from the lower 70s along the coast, to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland/Piedmont, along with a slight chance of afternoon showers/tstms inland. Mainly dry weather Thu night and Fri, as surface high pressure builds farther down into and over the region. Lows Thu night in the mid 50s to lower 60s, and warmer highs on Fri ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday As of 415pm EDT Tuesday... Dry weather expected Fri night into Sat morning, then a backdoor cold front pushes through the area Sat aftn/Sat night and bring a slight chc/low chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs Sat will range from the mid/upper 70s along the coast, to the mid 80s well inland. High pressure returns Sun/Monday with highs in the lower to mid 70s Sun, then in the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday with mainly dry conditions. Lows will range through the 50s to lower 60s. Another cold front will bring a slight chance to chance of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday aftn/evening. Marine As of 350pm EDT Tuesday... Afternoon analysis shows a very similar pattern across the area: high pressure to the N and weak low pressure offshore the Carolinas. This is maintaining brisk NE winds across most of the local waters given a tight(ish) pressure gradient. A diffuse boundary/weak cold front is located near the NC/VA border, with stronger winds to the N and lighter winds S. This is evident with obs showing 10-20 kt winds across the Bay and Ocean N of the NC/VA border with 5-15 kt S of the border. Breezy NE winds persist through the rest of today and into the overnight hrs. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) N of New Point Comfort and for the lower James remain in effect until 2z/10 pm. There may be a brief lull in the winds from 4-8z, but the gradient tightens yet again for Wednesday, especially across the S. Have extended the small craft advisories for the Bay S of New Point Point Comfort through most of Wednesday for NE winds 15-20 kt w/ ~25 kt gusts, in addition to adding the Currituck Sound to the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Wed. Benign marine conditions are generally expected for later Thurs and Fri. There is the potential for another area of low pressure to organize off the Southeast coast Friday into this weekend as a stronger high builds across Atlantic Canada. Additionally, a backdoor cold front will likely cross the waters from the NE sometime later Sat/early Sun. This would act to enhance the NE winds given models showing a decent shot of CAA. Winds could approach 20-25 kt, highest across the coastal waters. Seas have gradually been building through the afternoon w/ seas around 5 ft S to around 7 ft N. As seas are near 5 ft everywhere, needed to start the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) early for the coastal waters S of the NC/VA border. The SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters continue through early Thursday for seas (in addition to winds Wed). Seas remain elevated to 5 feet through at least Wednesday evening/Wednesday night. Waves in the Bay are generally running 2 to 3 feet. At the mouth of the Bay, waves will likely remain near 4 ft through Thursday, which necessitates the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through early Thurs there (despite decreasing winds). Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 400pm EDT Tuesday... The rip risk increases to high today across the Eastern Shore beaches as waves build to 4-5 ft. w/ a stronger NE flow. Across the south, the models generally show the front weakening or stalling in the vicinity of the VA-NC border. High rip risk for Wednesday given 4-5 ft nearshore waves forecast for all zones. The rip risk will likely remain elevated (moderate or high) through this week into next weekend with a persistent NE wind. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630- 631-638. Small Craft Advisory until 9pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ632. Small Craft Advisory from 4am to 9pm EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. |
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