Marine Weather Net

Alligator River Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ131 Forecast Issued: 1010 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight.
Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tue Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight.
Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1003am EDT Monday May 20 2024

Synopsis
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 1000am EDT Monday... Key Messages:

- Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast.

High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Foggy conditions in the piedmont are quickly improving with latest obs showing visibilities over a mile. Fog continues to scour out and should be gone within the next hour or so.

For the rest of morning and afternoon. the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry weather is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.

Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night
As of 255am EDT Monday... Key Message:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the surface high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast. Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tuesday night and 60s Wednesday night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 255am EDT Monday... Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. Probability of Precipitation ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS (Global Forecast System) is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from Storm Prediction Center at this point. Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precipitation potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant surface boundary, lower surface pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.

For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.

Marine
As of 315am EDT Monday... Key Messages:

-All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM.

- Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week.

1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- afternoon as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA (Small Craft Advisory) off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4am as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft.

The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this afternoon into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chance of primarily aftn/evening thunderstorms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from thunderstorms.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves. By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.

Hydrology
As of 315am EDT Monday... Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 315am EDT Monday... Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early afternoon given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.

Marine
None.