Alligator River Marine Forecast
| Today...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Mon...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 633am EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Synopsis High pressure and mainly dry conditions prevail from today through the end of the week, but well below normal temperatures linger across the region. The only possible exception to the dry weather is a slight chance of light freezing rain across coastal northeast North Carolina early this morning. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 355am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect through 10 AM. - Temperatures will not be quite as cold today but still well below average. 1030mb high pressure is centered over the region early this morning along with a cold airmass formerly arctic in origin. Aloft, a broad longwave trough continues to remain over the central and eastern CONUS. The primary trough axis is from the Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains resulting in more of a quasi-zonal flow from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Mostly clear early this morning, with the exception of some stratocu over NE NC associated with an inverted trough off the Outer Banks. Temperatures are mainly in the single digits to lower teens inland, with mid teens to lower 20s along the coast where a 5-10 mph N wind persists. For these locations, wind chills are in the single digits to lower teens. High clouds will increase quickly this morning ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from the WSW. Meanwhile, the inverted trough will lift NNE off the coast this morning. There is still a potential for some light freezing rain in vicinity of the NE NC coast. However, there is a deep dry layer between the cirrus aloft and the stratocu (SC) ~3-4kft AGL. Therefore, it will likely be difficult to get much if any precipitation out of the SC. At this time, there are only minimal radar echoes off the Outer Banks. If any light freezing rain/drizzle does occur it will likely have minimal impact. High clouds will continue to thicken today. The airmass will modify, but that will be offset to some extent by the cirrus, and also snow cover over SE VA and NE NC. Forecast highs are mainly in the lower to mid 30s for SE VA, NE NC, and the Eastern Shore, with upper 30s farther inland. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Saturday As of 355am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Temperatures remain below average but slightly modify late this week. - Dry conditions continue. The shortwave trough pushes offshore tonight with decreasing clouds. Another area of high pressure builds back into the area. Not as cold, but still well below average with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s, with mid/upper 20s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Continued dry Friday despite a more vigorous shortwave trough tracking over the region. Temperatures moderate some with highs in the mid/upper 30s N to lower 40s S. The shortwave moves offshore Friday night as surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Still quite cold Friday night with forecast lows in the teens in most areas and lower/mid 20s at the immediate coast. Temperatures moderate a bit more Saturday as the high moves to our SE, but highs will still be below average and range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday As of 355am EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry conditions are expected through early next week with moderating temperatures. Surface high pressure remains in vicinity of the Southeast coast Saturday night and the airmass remains dry. Not as cold, but still seasonally chilly with lows in the 20s. High temperature moderate to near to slightly above average Sunday ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s as high pressure moves farther offshore. Becoming partly sunny Sunday with WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) aloft. A split flow pattern develops by Sunday night/Monday. A southern stream wave slides to our S late Sunday night/early Monday. Meanwhile, the northern stream will push a shallow surface front into the region from the N. Confidence in any rain is minimal and the perception forecast remains dry at this time. Lows Sunday night are mainly in the mid 20s to around 30F, followed by hogs in the mid 40s to around 50F Monday. The cold front will move through on Monday evening/overnight. Behind the front, a major airmass change is not expected like we saw with the last frontal passage. Dew points will drop a few degrees, but temperatures will remain similar and quickly rebound back into the upper 40s to lower to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected through at least mid- week. Marine As of 330am EST Thursday... -Light freezing spray remains possible through the early morning hours of today. The next chance of potential freezing spray returns late Friday into Saturday morning. -Sub-SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) conditions are expected through the rest of the week and into the early part of the weekend. Early morning analysis shows a strong 1030mb high pressure just off the east coast. This high has let winds decrease all waters this morning. Winds remain out of the north this morning between 5 to 10 kt across all waters. Despite the winds calming, very cold temperatures will allow for potential for freezing spray in the Bay, and to a lesser extent in the rivers and immediately near the coast on the Eastern Shore. Winds are not expected to change much through the day as the high pressure continues to linger just offshore. Winds will remain between 5 to 10 kt across the bay and ocean with some isolated gusts up to 15 kt primarily across the coastal waters. These conditions will last through the end of the week and into the weekend. There is still some uncertainty this weekend on potential SCA. Latest guidance has shown a slightly stronger system allowing for a tighter pressure gradient across the waters. This would bring potential SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions across the area. Trends in the guidance will continue to be monitored. Seas will then become 2-3ft everywhere by Thursday morning. Tides / Coastal Flooding Despite the strong northerly flow subsiding, the water that was pushed out of portions of the Currituck Sound has been slow to return. Latest tidal observations show multiple areas remaining below Low Water Advisory levels. Thus, extended the Advisory through Thursday afternoon. Levels should start to gradually return closer to normal by later this late afternoon and early evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for MDZ021>025. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10am EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. Marine Low Water Advisory until 5pm EST this afternoon for ANZ633. |
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