Alligator River Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Choppy. |
| Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Choppy. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1231pm EST Wednesday Nov 5 2025 Synopsis Warm, dry, breezy conditions are expected Wednesday ahead of another cold frontal passage Wednesday night. Briefly cooler temperatures on Thursday give way to milder, seasonable temperatures for late week into the weekend. A second cold front could bring some light rain showers late Friday evening into Saturday. Much colder weather is expected by early next week following the passage of a much stronger cold front. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 300am EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Breezy and pleasant today. Highs warm above normal on increasingly gusty SW winds. 15-20 mph winds will gust up to 25-35 mph. Latest analysis reveals ~1028mb surface high pressure centered over the coastal Carolinas early this morning. To the northwest, A deepening clipper low was noted over the upper midwest, with the associated surface cold front dipping into the central plains and the mid MS Valley. The warm front ahead of this system is currently approaching the central Appalachians, and will cross the mountains over the next few pre-dawn hours. The previously referenced clipper low slides across the upper lakes early this morning, reaching the interior northeast and northern New England late this afternoon and tonight. The deepening system will allow for a quick tightening of the surface pressure gradient, resulting in an increasingly gusty mid to late morning and afternoon across the local area. Winds increase out of the SW. 15-25 mph winds will gust to 30-35 mph (locally 40 mph) likely over inland areas. It will also warm into the upper 60s-lower 70s under a mostly sunny sky. With aftn dew pts only recovering into the upper 30s to low 40s, min RH values will be in the upper 20s to low 30s% inland. While most of our area received at least 0.25-0.5" of rain late Sunday and Monday, areas along the US-15 corridor from Louisa to Clarksville did not get as much rain. Therefore, have expanded the existing fire weather "Increased Fire Danger" SPS into the rest of our VA piedmont counties from 11 AM-6pm today. The seasonally strong, but moisture-starved cold front crosses the region tonight, with SW winds becoming NW post-frontal. Breezy conditions continue this evening as the cold front finally sweeps through the region between 03-06z/10p-1a tonight. The resulting breezy conditions/well-mixed boundary layer help to keep us much milder tonight, with forecast lows early Thu morning mainly in the mid-upper 40s inland, to lower 50s along the SE coastal plain. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday As of 300am EST Wednesday... Key Message: - Dry weather continues through Friday afternoon. - Frost is possible Thursday night across inland areas. The front quickly sweeps offshore Thu morning, with another transient surface high quickly building in overhead on its heels post- frontal Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak Cold Air Advection and modestly lower thicknesses knock temperatures back near or just below climo, with forecast highs in the low to mid 60s (upper 50s eastern shore). High pressure settles over the area Thu night before quickly moving offshore on Friday. At least some more patchy frost is likely Thu night across inland areas with forecast lows in the lower-mid 30s. However, temperatures recover well into the 60s on Friday, on breezy return flow as the high again quickly slides offshore. Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday As of 300am EST Wednesday... Key Message: - A few light showers are possible Friday night as a weak cold front moves into the region. - Sharply colder temperatures look to be on the horizon for early next week. A weak shortwave passes by to our north Friday night-Saturday, which will push another mainly dry cold front through the area. Could see isolated to scattered showers with the FROPA, but models are not surprisingly getting less bullish on widespread precipitation. Some high-end chance Probability of Precipitation remain, but Quantitative Precipitation Forecast should be on the order of a few hundredths or less. Winds turn back to the south on Saturday well ahead of another (much stronger) cold front, with 70s possible across a decent portion of the FA. Behind that front, a more significant pattern change still looks to be on the way from Sunday into early next week, as a deep trough amplifies over the eastern CONUS. A stronger low pressure system tracks well to our north on Sunday, which will drag that stronger cold front through the area. Warm again on Sunday with at least lower 70s likely (especially E/SE), with at least some additional light scattered showers possible during the day on Sunday along and ahead of the crossing front. Dry and much colder weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday as the above mentioned full-latitude upper-level trough builds east across the eastern half of the CONUS. 850mb temperatures may drop to -10C by Tueam as a cold, Canadian airmass spills south into the region. Most models, and hence the NBM, showing increasing confidence that this system bring the coolest air of the season across the local area. Forecast highs are only in the 50s on Monday with mid- upper 40s possible Tuesday despite sunshine. It appears likely that widespread below freezing temps occur across inland areas on both Monday night and potentially again Tuesday night. Marine As of 305am EST Wednesday... - Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles this afternoon through early Thursday as a strong cold front crosses the area. - Small Craft Advisories are in effect elsewhere through Thursday morning. - Another mainly dry cold front will impact the area Friday night into Saturday. The latest weather analysis shows strong high pressure (~1027 mb) centered overhead extending down across the SE coast. Winds are currently SW/W at 5-10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves are around 1 ft with seas 1-2 ft. The high pressure will slide offshore this morning as an intensely strengthening low pressure moves across the Great Lakes region into the New England area. This will allow the pressure gradient to tighten and SW winds to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by late morning/early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories for the Chesapeake Bay and river will go into effect at 10 AM. Winds will continue to increase in the afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient tightens further causing winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the coastal waters north of Cape Charles and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt elsewhere. Along with the tight pressure gradient, a strong cold front will cross the local waters late tonight/early Thursday. Behind the front winds will shift out of the NW and will slowly subside below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria by Thursday afternoon. The Gale Watch for the northern coastal waters have been upgraded to a Gale Warning through 1am Thursday. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect for the coastal waters south of Cape Charles and the Currituck Sound at 1 PM. Seas will build to 6-8 ft in the northern waters and 4-6 ft in the southern waters, with 3-4 ft waves in the bay. High pressure will build back over the area Thursday, allowing sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions by Thursday night. Another cold front will cross the area Friday night into Saturday with another round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely. A series of fronts could cross the local waters Sunday and Monday. Fire Weather As of 300am EST Wednesday... Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, gusty SW winds (15-20 mph, gusts to 25-35 mph), and drying fuels will bring concern for increased fire danger over the area today. An SPS for increased fire danger has been issued for the VA Piedmont from Louisa to Farmville where concern is greatest (due to lack of appreciable rain late Sun/Mon). Elsewhere, have held off on SPSs farther east after coordination with neighboring WFOs/state officials. Have continued to undercut NBM dewpoints by a few degrees on Wed, yielding Min RH in the upper 20s to low 30s% range in most areas away from the immediate coast. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5pm EST this afternoon for VAZ048- 060>062-065>069-509-510. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for ANZ638. Gale Warning until 1am EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. |
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