Alligator River Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Thu...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight. |
| Fri...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. Showers Likely. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 135pm EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated for 18z aviation discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An Increased Fire Danger statement has been expanded into southern and southeast Virginia today in addition to northeast North Carolina. 2) Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday. As of 320am EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...An Increased Fire Danger statement has been expanded into southern and southeast Virginia today in addition to northeast North Carolina. High pressure was centered offshore early this morning. This has allowed light southerly flow to persist, so temperatures were much warmer than 24 hours ago, and mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. There is a minimal chance of showers by this afternoon as a weak trough tracks N-S through the region, especially from central VA to the Eastern Shore. Probability of Precipitation are mainly 30-40% N to less than 20% S, and even areas across the N that have the highest Probability of Precipitation are coincident with min RH values of 30-45%. Additionally, the moisture is located above a deep well mixed dry boundary layer. Little to no measurable rainfall is expected for most locations. A few lightning strikes are possible, but the overall thunder probability is quite low. Farther south, min RH values fall to 25-35% across southern VA/NE NC and with the combined gusty southwest winds to 25 mph, there is increased fire danger. In coordination with neighboring offices and the NC Forest Service, have issued an IFD statement for NE NC. Meanwhile, the IFD statement has been expanded in VA to include areas generally along and S of the US 460 corridor W of the Tri-Cities, and then eastward to include Hampton Roads. Some high-res guidance depicts some showers/thunderstorms developing in vicinity of the Blue Ridge Thursday afternoon and tracking SE. However, once again forecast soundings depict moisture above a deep well mixed and dry boundary layer, so any activity will be very isolated and most of the area will remain dry. A backdoor cold front drops into the area Friday afternoon. There is a 20-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms in vicinity of the boundary, but overall coverage is expected to be limited given a lack of rich moisture. Warm inland Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s. Lower to mid 70s are expected along the coast Thursday, and upper 60s/lower 70s Friday as the backdoor front nudges onshore. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances increase later Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front settles into the region with a wave of low pressure tracking along the boundary. Cooler temperatures follow Sunday into Monday. Most 00z/22 deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a cold front dropping to near the VA/NC border Saturday. Timing of this front will have an impact on high temperatures Saturday as very warm conditions should continue ahead of the front, with much cooler temperatures behind the front. A wave of low pressure tracks along the front later Saturday into Saturday night bringing rain chances to the region. At this time, 24 hour EPS 50th percentile Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through 12z Sunday is on the order of 0.2-0.4", while the GEFS is less than 0.2". Probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are generally 20-40% N from the EPS and less than 20% S, while the GEFS 0.5" probs are less than 20% for the entire area. This would not substantially alleviate drought concerns, but would definitely be welcome. A few thunderstorms are possible at the onset Saturday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will be cooler with highs in the 60s Sunday and lows in the mid 40s Sunday night. High pressure is forecast to return by Monday with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another front potentially moves into the area by Tuesday. However, the bulk of the guidance does not show significant rain with this system. Marine As of 320am EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Gusty S-SW winds expected through the early afternoon today, with Small Craft Advisories in effect. - Lighter flow and benign conditions prevail for the rest of the work week. As expected, southerly winds have increased well into Small Craft Advisory territory this morning as a trough of low pressure moves north of the waters. The latest suite of observations across both the Chesapeake Bay and ocean show widespread readings of 15-25 kt with higher gusts. Elevated winds are likely to persist through most of this morning, before gradually diminishing and shifting to the SW and then W this afternoon. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the rivers, Chesapeake Bay, and coastal waters N of Parramore Island through the late morning/early afternoon. In addition, have added the Currituck Sound from 10 AM-4pm as a well-mixed boundary layer should portend to gusty SW winds here. Lastly, weak convective showers could also bring brief gusty winds in the mid-late afternoon, though these gusts would be sporadic. The wind decreases substantially tonight and becomes N/NW. Relatively weak flow prevails Thursday and Friday with afternoon sea breezes. A weak low pressure system could then impact the waters by the weekend with SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) possible later Saturday into Sunday. Nearshore seas of 4-5 ft have likely developed in the northern waters and should persist through most of the morning hours. Waves in Chesapeake Bay are currently 2-3 ft and occasional 4 footers are also expected through the morning. A benign sea/wave state returns for the rest of the work week. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5pm EDT this afternoon for VAZ060- 065>067-079>082-087>090-092-097-098-523>525-528>531. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 636-637-639. |
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