Alligator River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Tue...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Evening, Then Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259pm EDT Thu April 18 2024 Synopsis Dry and warm conditions are expected today. A backdoor cold front drops south of the area late this afternoon through tonight, with a stronger cold front crossing the region Friday night. Rain chances increase late Sunday into early Monday as low pressure tracks along a stalled frontal boundary across the Carolinas. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 230pm EDT Thursday... This afternoon, a backdoor cold front is dropping SW across the region and is currently dropping through the Eastern Shore. Temperatures range from the low to mid 80s inland, with upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast. The cold front will pick up speed as it crosses the area from NW-SE from later this afternoon into tonight, with the front dropping SW of the local CWA (County Warning Area) and into central NC by late tonight. Winds becoming NE area- wide in the wake of the front (could actually see some gusts to 25 mph near the coast this evening for a few hours right after the front pushes through). Temperatures will quickly drop into the 50s after the FROPA this evening and forecast lows range from the 40s over the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck to the lower 50s elsewhere (warmest across the SW). In addition, low stratus will overspread the entire area overnight with the onshore flow behind the front (although still not really expecting much in the way of fog with 5-15 mph winds). Short Term - Friday Through Sunday As of 300pm EDT Thursday... Strong low pressure tracks from the Canadian Prairies to Ontario/Quebec today through Friday, pushing a stronger cold front toward the region (which will approach from the NW). The backdoor front currently over the area will try to retreat back to the north during the day on tomorrow as that stronger cold front approaches. The temperature forecast will largely depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have continued to trend the forecast cooler (especially near the immediate Atlantic coast and on the Eastern Shore) where temps likely won't get out of the 60s. Temps may struggle to reach 60F in/near Ocean City. Still think it warms well into the mid to upper 70s across interior southern VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps on Friday remains near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions still range from the 60s to mid 70s). Rain chances will return, though not until later Friday afternoon. Rain will be scattered at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east, though still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder further north late Friday afternoon/evening due to increasing elevated instability. There is a low-end, Marginal threat for severe storms across far SW portions of the area (Mecklenburg County), but again this will depend on how far north the front can retreat. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storms. This is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecasts are still showing barely .10-.25" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. The front likely moves south of the FA by the middle of Saturday morning, and isolated to perhaps scattered showers will likely linger over the area through that time (and potentially Sat aftn across far SE VA/NE NC...although Probability of Precipitation are only 20% given the expected lack of coverage). We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat afternoon as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat are in the upper 60s-lower 70s (although it may be cooler if clouds/showers linger longer than expected...which seems most likely across southern portions of the area). A stronger shot of Cold Air Advection arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s (lower 40s for typically cooler locations). On Sunday, a southern stream low pressure system is forecast to move out of the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. This means that rain chances will return, potentially by Sunday afternoon across the southern half of the forecast area. Temperatures will likely be cooler across southern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances) with highs only in the lower 60s (potentially even upper 50s in spots). The northern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the lower to mid 60s (cooler across the Eastern Shore). Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday As of 300pm EDT Thursday... The system deepens offshore Sunday night into Monday. With rain chances continuing into Sunday night and early Monday (especially south). The main forecast challenge lies in figuring out how far north the rain will get, but the trend with the 12z suite of models has been to keep the deepest moisture just south of the local area. Rain chances linger across southern portions of the area potentially into Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will be a similar story compared to Sunday with northern portions of the area warmer than the southern 1/3rd of the CWA. High pressure briefly builds over the area Tueam before another system brings shower chances to the area by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds become southerly. The cold front crosses the area likely mid day Wednesday with cooler air filtering back into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Marine As of 300pm EDT Thursday... A backdoor cold front is dropping across local waters this afternoon from NE to SE, and it will continue to progress south through the evening. Latest obs reflect winds generally out of the north at 5- 10kt, though a few obs show 10-15kt. Winds turn more to the NE behind the front with speeds increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this evening into tonight. The strongest NE winds will be over the northern three coastal zns with 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt expected. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in these zns also. While a few gusts to 25kt may occur in the mouth of the bay, will continue to hold off on SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) in this zone. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are in effect for the coastal zns from Fenwick Island to Cape Charles Light (650-654) due to winds/seas. The SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will start this evening at 7pm (650-652) or 10 pm (654). The SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for zn 654 will last until 10 am Fri, while the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for (650-652) will last until 5 pm Fri. A series of fronts will move through the region Fri into Sat. The backdoor front returns north ahead of another cold front set to cross the waters early Sat. N winds will follow the second front but will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels. Expecting conditions to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels from Sat into Sunday evening. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 5pm EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EDT Friday for ANZ654. |
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