Alligator River Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Flat, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sun...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
940pm EDT Wednesday Oct 5 2022
Low pressure drifts farther offshore tonight. High pressure becomes centered over the southeast states on Thursday, bringing dry and warmer conditions. A cold front approaches from the west on Friday, and crosses the region by Friday evening. Dry but cool weather will prevail this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 940pm EDT Wednesday... Only minor changes were needed to the forecast this evening as low pressure at the surface and aloft continues to slowly move away from the local area. Skies are now mostly clear along and west of I-95, with mainly cloudy skies near the bay/coast. Dry wx continues overnight with lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Cannot completely rule out patchy fog on the MD Ern Shore and well inland, but not confident it will be widespread enough to include in the gridded forecast.
Previous of 235pm EDT... Low pressure at the surface, situated just off the Delmarva coast, is slowly making its way SE this afternoon as an UL low becomes vertically stacked with it. Satellite imagery shows that far SW portions of the FA area are already mostly out of the clouds. Along the I-95 corridor, clouds are starting to thin out. This has allowed temperatures to reach the upper 60s in the piedmont, low 60s in along I-95. Cloud cover is thicker along the coast early this afternoon and on the Eastern Shore, so temperatures have been slower to rise, with latest obs showing mid-50s. Some very light rain/drizzle remains along the coast this afternoon, primarily on the eastern shore. It will taper off this evening as the low continues to push offshore.
Skies will continue to gradually clear out overnight as high pressure starts to build into the area. Lows tonight in the upper 40s in the W, low 50s E.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Saturday
As of 235pm EDT Wednesday... The offshore, vertically stacked low will continue to move farther to the NE, a low-amplitude UL ridge and surface high pressure temporarily filling in behind it. Thursday and Friday will be much warmer and sunnier than the first half of the week thanks to high pressure and WSW-SW winds. Highs in the mid-70s Thursday, upper 70s (a few spots might hit 80) on Friday. Lows Friday morning in the mid- 50s near the coast, upper 40s inland. A broad, UL trough moves in over the eastern CONUS as a surface low moves into the Great Lakes region. The cold front attached to this low will move through the local area Friday afternoon/evening. This will most likely be a dry front. Cloud cover will increase as it makes its way through and winds turn back to the NW. High pressure and cooler, drier air fills in behind the front. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid-40s in the NW, mid-50s in the SE. Highs in the low 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
As of 235pm EDT Wednesday... Cool, dry air continuing to filter in behind the cold front from earlier in the weekend and clear skies will allow for good radiating conditions and cold temperatures Sunday morning. Expecting low around 36 in vicinity of Louisa County, which would be the coldest it has been so far this season. There may be some patchy frost in western counties where it's coldest. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s-low 40s. High pressure slides into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday, keeping skies mostly sunny. Highs in the upper-60s, dewpoints in the upper 30s-low 40s. Still chilly Sunday night/Monday morning with lows in the low 40s. Mostly sunny again on Monday with highs around 70s. Lows in the mid-40s and highs in the low-70s on Tuesday. There are some disagreements in the global models in the synoptic pattern starting Tuesday, but it looks to be dry regardless.
As of 400pm EDT Wednesday... Low pressure lingers immediately offshore of the Delmarva coast and will gradually drift farther offshore tonight. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect for the Bay through 10 PM, the mouth of the Bay through 4 AM, and the ocean through 7am Thursday. However, seas (especially S) are subsiding. More benign conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, before another cold front slides through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely with a NNW wind of 15-25kt, with seas building back to 4-5ft (potentially 5-6ft S). Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected later Saturday into Sunday, and into early next week as high pressure builds into the region.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.