Alligator River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Occasional Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Rough. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Tue...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat.|
|Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
304pm EST Fri Dec 8 2023
High pressure will move east of the local area on Friday and Saturday. A strong frontal system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday morning. High pressure builds back into the region early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
As of 1210pm EST Friday... High pressure is centered from the Carolina to Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. with light winds and temperatures in the 50s across the local area. Skies are partly cloudy due to high clouds. Dry/seasonable weather continues tonight. Some clearing is likely during the evening before high clouds move back in (especially S) during the latter part of the night. Forecast lows are generally in the 30s.
Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Monday
As of 300pm EST Friday... Remaining dry and mild on Saturday as surface high pressure expands to the N and becomes centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to begin amplifying over the Mississippi River Valley on Saturday while a surface cold front slowly approaches from the west. Highs are forecast to be well into the 60s on Sat with a SSW wind around 10 mph. In addition, dew points will rise into the upper 40s-mid 50s by late in the day. The rather sharp cold front will approach from the west on Sunday and move across the area Sunday evening-Sunday night. Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to amplify on Sunday and eventually takes on a negative tilt as it approaches and crosses the area late Sunday night-early Monday morning. Anomalous amounts of deep-layered moisture will advect into the area ahead of the system on Sunday, with PWs expected to surge to 1.50-1.75". There will be a strong southerly flow ahead of the front on Sunday (especially during the aftn/evening). Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. This will bring warm and moist air north into the area. Dew points are forecast to climb into the lower-mid 60s with highs rising into the upper 60s-lower 70s.
Showers are likely west of I-95 during the morning, with numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms expected during the aftn-early evening. SBCAPE is forecast to increase to 100-300 J/kg by late in the day (highest across SE VA/NE NC). However, a strengthening LLJ may allow for strong to severe winds to mix down to the surface in the strongest cells as early as late afternoon. However, the main severe threat will be between 6 PM-3 AM, as the sharp cold front crosses the area. The low-level wind fields will continue to strengthen during the evening-overnight in advance of the front, with 925mb winds potentially reaching 50-70 kt in areas E of I-95 by late evening. Not expecting temperatures/dew points to drop Sunday night ahead of the front with continued warm/moist advection and strong southerly flow. As a result, we will continue to have a few hundred J/kg of surface-based instability in place until front passes by. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, and these will likely cause localized 45-65 mph wind gusts which will have the potential to down trees/power lines. In addition, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Feel that the best chance of a brief tornado or two will be across interior portions of SE VA/NE NC. Will have to watch if a secondary triple point low can form along the front as it moves across the area Sunday night (a couple of the models suggest this). If this occurs, localized backing of the surface wind field may enhance the tornado threat near/just to the east of the low track.
In addition to the severe threat, widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5- 2.5" are expected from Sun-Sunday night. Lastly, expect a very quick 15- 20F temperature drop as winds abrupartly turn to the NW following the FROPA. Also, winds may gust to 40-45 mph for a couple of hours in any given location (regardless of whether strong storms occur) after the front passes by. Stratiform rain will continue for a few hours early Monam behind the front as moisture wraps around the system as it exits and continues to strengthen. The precipitation is forecast to end by 3-5am west/5-8am east. Cannot completely rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing in across our far NW zones right before the precipitation ends. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 30s-around 40F. Gusty NW winds to 25-40 mph (highest E) will persist through the night. Rapid clearing is expected on Monday with highs in the upper 40 to lower 50s. Breezy WNW winds are expected, with gusts averaging 25-35 mph.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Thursday
As of 300pm EST Friday... Dry/seasonably cool weather is expected to continue through the end of next week as surface high pressure remains near or over the area. Winds will be no higher than ~10 mph through the period with varying directions. Highs Tue-Fri will mainly be in the upper 40s-mid 50s with morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
As of 300pm EST Friday... Gale Watches are in effect Sunday night for all of the local waters. High pressure remains off the SE coast into this weekend with winds remaining S 8-15 kt through Sat night. The initial low occludes in Canada Sat night with the strong cold front approaching from the W. Secondary cyclogenesis is expected along the front late Sunday into Sunday evening in central VA. This low is expected to move NE and rapidly deepen Sunday night as the trough aloft goes from neutral to negatively tilted. As rapid height falls occur with the deepening low, the wind field will tighten over the local waters. As such, expect strengthening S winds Sunday into Sunday night with winds increasing from 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the Ches Bay and 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the coastal waters Sunday to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt over the Ches Bay and 25-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt over the coastal waters Sunday evening. The cold front moves through from W to E from 3-9z Monday with strong NW winds aloft mixing down to the surface behind the front. Gale conditions are likely (high confidence) across the Ches Bay and coastal waters behind the cold front (especially for the first hour or two). Mariners should prepare for strong S winds rapidly shifting to even stronger NW winds with gusts to 40 kt possible (45 kt possible initially behind the cold front). The greatest chance for 45 kt gusts is over the coastal waters. Local wind probs have a 60% chance for 43 kt gusts and 20-30% chance for 48 kt gusts around 20 NM offshore of our N coastal water marine zones. Given bufkit soundings and the strong NW winds behind the front, gusts to 35 kt will also be possible over all the rivers and Currituck Sound (at least for a couple hours). As such, have included all rivers and the Currituck Sound in the Gale Watch (confidence is moderate). Additionally, the Gale Watch for the N coastal waters begins at 21z Sunday due to the highest chance for S Gales ahead of the front over this area with the Gale Watch in effect for the S coastal waters at 00z Monday for lower probs of S Gales. Elsewhere, Gale Watches go into effect Sunday night for the NW surge behind the cold front. Gale Watches taper off from W to E Monday as winds diminish. Will need SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) ahead of the Gale Watches but it is past 3rd period so will hold off for this update. Widespread showers and isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Sunday night with the best chance for storms along the cold front Sunday evening/Sunday night. Waterspouts and gusts to 45-50 kt will be possible with thunderstorms along the cold front.
NW winds diminish to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Monday afternoon, eventually diminishing to 10-15 kt Monday night. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected Tues through the end of the week as high pressure dominates the local weather.
Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively. Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft Sun, eventually building to 4-6 ft and 7- 11 ft Sunday night. Waves drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Monday evening with seas remaining elevated through Monday night. Additionally, will likely need a High Surf Advisory for the MD Eastern Shore, potentially extending S to Accomack, VA Sunday night due to nearshore breaking waves around 8 ft.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ630. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ631-632-634-638. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ633-635>637. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ654-656-658.