Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Tue Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. |
| Thu Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Fri...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. |
| Fri Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. |
| Sat...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 654pm EDT Monday September 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. 2) Warm and mostly dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will continue to sink southward through the area this afternoon and early evening. Showers and storms continue to blossom near the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds this afternoon. West to northwest low-level flow should tend to limit the strength of convergence along the front. However, as the front encounters the developing seabreeze, there should be a local enhancement to low-level forcing, especially along and south of HWY 70. This is the area where the best chance for sustained, deep convection exists. The risk is conditional on sufficient low- level forcing, but should this occur, a short- lived risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may develop thanks to elevated deep layer shear (~35kt) and moderate instability (MLCAPE up to 1500J/kg). Machine learning guidance isn't all that excited about this potential, and this likely speaks to the conditionality of the threat. This risk will quickly end from north to south as the front shifts off the Crystal Coast by sunset. KEY MESSAGE 2...Guidance continue to trend stronger with an upper level ridge that will be expanding across the Southern U.S. this week. In fact, ensemble guidance is now forecasting 500mb heigheights around 600dm with this ridge, the strength of which is very unusual for this time of year. Normally, this would spell anomalous heat for ENC. However, a pocket of "cooler" thicknesses is forecast to be over the Carolinas associated with the post-frontal northeasterly flow regime, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. While it will be mostly dry, those cooler thicknesses may shield ENC from the anomalous heat that other parts of the South will experience. That pocket of lower thicknesses may begin to erode by the end of the week, with temperatures warming by then. However, guidance differ on when/if this will occur. Marine Latest obs show NE-NW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. A cold front will continue to sink southward through the waters this afternoon and early eve. N-NE winds will surge to 15-25 kt behind the front, peaking this evening then gradually diminishing late tonight into Tuesday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the coastal waters, sounds and the Neuse/Bay Rvrs. Seas will build to around 5-8 ft late tonight with highest seas across the Gulf Stream. Wave guidance is typically underdone in NE flow and manually adjusted seas up 1-2 ft this afternoon into Tuesday, especially across the northern waters. Outlook (Tuesday night through Sat): An extended period of northeasterly flow is expected through at least Wednesday or Thursday. Winds are forecast to lay down below 25kt, but elevated seas may linger for much of the week, especially with the contra flow against the Gulf Stream waters. For the near- shore coastal waters, elevated seas will likely linger through mid-week. Lighter winds Fri and Sat with seas mainly 2-3 ft. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-137. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ158. |
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