Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Waves Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Waves Rough. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Flat, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. |
| Wed...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Rain. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 503pm EST Sat Feb 15 2025 Synopsis A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday and bring multiple minor impacts. High pressure then builds in behind the departing front early next week and dry weather returns until Wednesday. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 4pm Saturday...Strong WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) will continue overnight as a warm front lifts through the area and southerly winds increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph. Probability of Precipitation will also increase through the night and peak at 60-70% around midnight with a few rumbles of thunder possible, especially near the coast. Probability of Precipitation will trail off slightly across the coastal plain near sunrise but this will be short lived as a strong cold front approaches from the west. With such strong WAA overnight, lows will only drop to the upper-50s to low-60s for nearly everywhere except the NOBX where cooler waters will allow them to drop into the low-50s. Short Term - Sunday As of 4:30pm Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Strong cold front will bring multiple minor impacts Sunday - Chance of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts A strong surface low will track ENE across the northern Mid- Atlantic and southern portions of New England. This will drag a potent cold front across our area tomorrow afternoon/evening. A tight pressure gradient, a robust 925 mb 65-70 kt LLJ, and deeper mixing due to high temperatures in the upper-60s/low-70s will generate very gusty conditions. A Wind Advisory is in effect with the expectation of surface winds reaching 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-50 mph across the coastal plain and 30-40 mph along the coast with gusts to nearly 50 mph. Winds will be strongest along the front when heavier showers and possibly some embedded thunderstorms assist in mixing down stronger gusts. Instability will be lacking with warm temps aloft, weak lapse rates, and ample cloud cover ahead of the front. With generally <250 J/kg MUCAPE expected across the area, confidence in deep convection is rather low. Wind shear, on the other hand, will be off the charts with a raging 925 mb LLJ generating 65-70 kt winds overhead. If thunderstorms are able to form in this high shear/low CAPE environment, strong to damaging convective wind gusts of 50-60 mph will be the main risk. Storm Prediction Center continues to keep our entire CWA (County Warning Area) in a Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe weather, which has the best chance of occurring between 10am - 5pm. The cold front will move offshore and take the bulk of precipitation with it shortly after sunset. Long Term - Sunday Night Through Saturday As of 315am Saturday... KEY MESSAGES - Confidence increasing regarding a coastal low impacting the Carolinas next week Monday - Tuesday: Cooler and drier conditions move in early next week in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s for highs, and in the 20s and 30s for lows. Wednesday - Friday: By the middle of next week, a Gulf low is forecast to develop and track up along, or just off, the Southeast U.S. coastline. The latest suite of guidance has generally trended deeper and slower with this system, but also a bit further inland. Based on these trends, this would favor more liquid precipitation, and less wintry precipitation. Regardless, a swath of moderate to heavy precipitation appears likely as the low moves up along the coast. If the deeper trend continues, there would also be a risk of strong winds. We'll continue to closely monitor trends with this system in the coming days. In the wake of this system, a shot of below normal temperatures appears likely, serving as a reminder that winter isn't quite over just yet... Marine SHORT TERM /Saturday/... As of 4:40pm Saturday...Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate through the period as a strong cold front approaches the area. Headlines remain the same with all waters under a Gale Warning except for the coastal waters between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, which are under a Storm Warning. Winds will increase through early afternoon with seas peaking late afternoon/early evening. Between the capes, winds will peak at 35-40 kt with gusts to 45-50 kt and seas 12-16 ft seas. Across the remaining coastal waters, winds will reach 30-40 kt with gusts to 40-45 kt with 10-14 ft seas (8-11 ft northern waters). Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday As of 315am Saturday...Winds and seas will slowly subside behind the front Sunday night, with improving conditions as we move into early next week. The next impactful system arrives towards the middle of next week as a coastal low move up along, or just off, the ENC coastline. A period of hazardous winds and seas may accompany this low, depending on the track and strength. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 4:45pm Saturday... A strong cold front will move through ENC on Sunday and will be accompanied by a period of strong southwesterly winds. Sustained winds are currently forecast to stay just below gale- force thanks to the colder waters of the Pamlico Sound, which should limit the risk of coastal flooding for soundside areas. That said, minor water level rises will be possible for soundside locations along Hatteras Island. At this time, coastal flood headlines are not anticipated, but we'll continue to reassess this potential. Additionally, increased southerly swell may lead to some minor ocean overwash impacts for vulnerable areas of HWY 12 along Ocracoke Island. This will be more of a windswell, though, with shorter periods (ie. less than 10 seconds), which may tend to limit the impact. Large breaking waves of 8-12 ft are expected in the surf zone from Oregon Inlet to Surf City, so a High Surf Advisory is in effect from 7am to 10pm Sunday. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Wind Advisory from 9am to 7pm EST Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7am to 10pm EST Sunday for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. Marine Gale Warning from 10am to 4pm EST Sunday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231. Gale Warning from 10am Sunday to 6am EST Monday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Gale Warning from 9am Sunday to 7am EST Monday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 5am Sunday to 6am EST Monday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)- 158. Storm Warning from 10am to 7pm EST Sunday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet)-156. |
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