Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tue...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves Choppy, Increasing To Rough After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
317pm EST Monday Nov 11 2019
High pressure will ridge over the area through tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind that front through mid week. A strong coastal low is expected to impact the area this weekend.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 3pm Monday...Latest surface analysis shows high pressure extending over the SE US, while strengthening low and associated cold front move into the OH/KY valley region. High pressure will continue to shift off the coast overnight as front moves eastward. Latest satellite show area of high clouds pushing off the coast early this afternoon. Clear skies early this evening, with clouds increasing overnight ahead of approaching front. Expect most of area to remain dry overnight. The exception will be along the immediate coast, Outer Banks, where we could see some showers moving in off the water. Though latest guidance has trended drier. Mild overnight with low level SW flow, with lows ranging from around 50 inland to around 60 beaches.
Short Term - Tuesday And Tuesday Night
As 3pm Monday...A strong cold front will push through ENC during the afternoon. A band of rain along the front will push through the area along late morning into the early evening. Will continue a period of categorical probability of precipitation for all areas, with expected Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amts less than 0.5". Still appears precipitation will end before really cold air arrives which should limit threat for any frozen precip. Though some wet snowflakes could mix in as precipitation ends Tuesday evening, with no impacts expected. Expect a non-diurnal temp curve, with highs in the mid/upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s along the coast late morning, then falling quickly into the 40s behind the front with strong Cold Air Advection during the afternoon.
Windy conditions expected along the coast Tuesday evening into Wednesday, so will go with a Wind Advisory for gusts up to 45 mph. Please see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more information on coastal flood threat.
High pressure will build in Tuesday night as upper trough swings through the area. Very cold air mass will surge in Tuesday night with lows aob freezing much of inland areas. Will go with a Freeze Watch for inland areas that have not yet seen a hard freeze this season.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
As of 305pm Sun...High pressure builds in Wednesday through Thursday, followed with a low pressure system developing late in the week.
Wednesday And Thursday
High pressure builds across the region Wednesday and slides offshore Thursday. A coastal trough is forecast to develop late Thursday with an increasing threat of a few coastal showers along the coast late Thursday night into Friday. Expect high in the 40s Wednesday with lows in the mid/upper 20s inland to upper 30s/lower 40s OBX Wednesday night. Temps moderate a bit Thursday with highs upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast.
Thursday night through Monday...Complex weather pattern evolving towards the end of the week as a sharp shortwave trough is forecast phase with a weak closed low moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The result is a strong shortwave/closed low over the southeastern U.S. late Friday into Saturday interacting with the stalled front/baroclinic zone, resulting in cyclogenesis off the northeast coast of Florida lifting northeast towards the Carolinas. There still remain some questions regarding exact evolution of this system but model guidance is in better agreement this cycle than beforehand. Thus confidence is increasing for another wet and windy period especially for coastal areas this weekend. Coastal flooding may once again be a concern for areas along the southern half of the Pamlico Sound.
Short Term /through Tuesday night/... As of 3pm Monday...Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 kt with seas around 2 ft. Pressure gradient will tighten later this afternoon and tonight, with the waters between the high to the east and front to the west. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt late, strongest across the central waters where wave guidance shows seas building to 4-6 ft. Conditions will quickly deteriorate Tuesday afternoon, with strong winds and dangerous seas developing. A cold front will push through the waters Tuesday afternoon, and gale force northerly winds 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt will develop quickly behind it. Seas will respond, building to 8-12 feet Tuesday night. Gale Warnings now up for the waters and sounds, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the inland rivers.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 310pm Mon...Strong northerly winds of 25-30 knots with higher gusts weaken to 10-15 knots by Thursday morning, helping boating conditions slowly improve as high pressure builds into the area. Seas expected to fall below 6 feet by Thursday morning.
Conditions deteriorate by the end of the period as a coastal low is expected to approach the North Carolina coast. A coastal trough developing ahead of the low late Thursday into Friday veers winds east/southeasterly at 10-15 knots before quickly backing northerly and increasing to near sustained gale force with higher gusts. Seas rapidly build Friday night into Saturday with seas of 15+ feet possible for outer coastal waters.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 245pm Monday...Gale force northerly flow and higher than normal astronomical tides will combine to produce a minor sound side coastal flood threat across the southern Pamlico Sound region from the southern Outer Banks to Down-East Carteret county from Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Water levels up to 2 ft above normal could result in inundation of 1 to 1.5 ft above ground level. Strong northerly flow will also result in rough surf north of Cape Hatteras, with potential for minor beach erosion and ocean overwash.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for NCZ081-094-194>196-199. Wind Advisory from 4pm Tuesday to 10am EST Wednesday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7pm Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Tuesday to 1pm EST Wednesday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 1pm Tuesday to 10am EST Wednesday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.