Marine Weather Net

Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ136 Forecast Issued: 1001 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Rest Of Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Thu...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.
Thu Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves Flat. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Fri...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se Around 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Flat. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.
Fri Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sat...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers.
Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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1001 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will slide to the south today and move offshore tonight. The remnants of Beta will reach the Carolinas Friday leading to periods of rain. A cold front will move slowly across the area early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000am EDT Wednesday September 23 2020

Synopsis
High pressure will slide to the south today and move offshore tonight. The remnants of Beta will reach the Carolinas Friday leading to periods of rain. A cold front will move slowly across the area early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1000am Wed...Temps warming quickly this morning into the 60s after a chilly start. Mostly sunny conditions expected today, with the exception of some upper level cirrus. 850 mb temps have increased almost 10 C from last night, which will allow temps to rebound towards normal highs this afternoon, and have readings in the mid to upper 70s, and possibly 80.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday
As of 300am Wed...The surface high will be offshore with SW flow to return. Conditions will remain dry and pleasant, though mid to high clouds will thicken overnight. Expect overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s inland and mid/upper 60s along the beaches.

Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 245am Wednesday...Upper level ridging and broad surface high pressure will prevail over the region through Thursday, keeping conditions over eastern NC seasonable and dry. Late in the week and over the weekend, some moisture from Tropical Cyclone Beta will stream northeast over the Carolinas and in combination with a south to southeast flow of moisture off of the Atlantic, will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to Eastern NC, especially on friday and Friday night. A cold front is forecast to move slowly across the area early next week.

Thursday...Continued dry and pleasant with moderating temperatures as high pressure surface and aloft prevails. As the high drifts off of the coast, resulting backing winds to the west/southwest will lead to warmer high temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 70s depending on cloud cover.

Friday through Sunday
The models have come in to better agreement late week into the weekend. Consensus is for a wet period Friday and Friday night as warm advection and moisture advection from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beta and low level southerly flow off of the Atlantic support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Have increased Probability of Precipitation Fri to likely now that the guidance has come into much better agreement. Over the weekend, the initial surge of deep moisture will move east of the area along with the best forcing as high pressure surface and aloft build over the area, thus chances of precipitation will be less than Friday and will continue chance Probability of Precipitation for a few mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Highs will warm from the mid to upper 70s Friday to around 80 Sat, and into the lower 80s Sunday.

Early to mid next week...The upper flow is forecast to become more amplified next week with an Eastern upper trough developing. The leading edge of the trough will be associated with a strong surface cold front which will move slowly across the Mid Atlantic and will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period. Highs will be in the lower 80s Monday and Tue.

Marine
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 645am Wed...Dangerous boating conditions continue through tonight. The latest buoy observations are showing NW 5-15 knots and seas 10-15 ft north of Diamond Shoals and 6-12 ft south. Small Craft Adv continues across the coastal waters as large swells remain. NW winds 5-15 knots, becoming west at 5-10 kts this afternoon. Seas will remain high during the morning, then gradually subsiding 5-10 ft by the afternoon. Tonight, W winds around 5 knots, and seas will continue to subside to 4-6 ft overnight.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 245am Wednesday...Ongoing lingering swell to 6 ft over the central waters early Thu will quickly subside below 6 ft by late morning, falling to 2-4 ft in the afternoon. Winds will be mainly S/SW 5-15 kt through the weekend with seas 2-3 ft from Thursday night into Sunday.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 245am Wednesday...Significant overwash again occurred yesterday's high tide across the Outer Banks, there will be a decent drop off in expected water levels and wave run up going into today's high tide. As a result, will continue with previously issued Coastal Flood Advisory as numerous, and now vulnerable, areas will likely see at least minor overwash again this afternoon. Expect dune and beach erosion to continue today, as well breaking waves remain high through this afternoon.

Elsewhere, soundside impacts along the southern Pamlico Sound and Neuse River will continue through this afternoon. Though winds will have subsided, water will be slow to drain from the complex inner coastline, and combined with still quite high astronomical tides, will lead to continued minor flooding threat today.

On Ocracoke Island, continued large wave action and run up will lead to continued beach and dune erosion, as well as overwash onto NC 12 north of the village.

The High Surf Advisory continues into this afternoon between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, and through tonight for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. High Surf Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ094-194>196-199-204. High Surf Advisory until 5pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ196- 204.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for AMZ150-156- 158.