Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tue...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
917am EDT Sunday September 23 2018
Synopsis: A weak cold front will cross the area today and gradually dissipate to our south early this week. Weak low pressure is expected to lift north near the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front will approach from the west late next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 915am Sunday...A few showers cont over the northern OBX this morning with a couple just offshore of southern coast that show very little movement. Mdls show very little additional convection developing this afternoon so lowered probability of precipitation to slight chance this afternoon keeping most of southern tier dry. Highs today should be in the low/mid 80s under PC skies
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Monday
As of 345am Sunday...With the weak frontal boundary moving south of the region tonight and with decent moisture providing by the onshore flow, expect a continued small chance of showers across the area tonight. Again, any Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts will be very light. Lows will range from the mid 60s inland to mid 70s Outer Banks. The overall pattern will favor the formation of low stratus and fog given the NE flow
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As of 4am Sunday...Predominantly E/SE flow across the area Monday and Tuesday with high pressure sliding off the New England coast while continuing to ridge SW into the piedmont and a weak area of low pressure or open trough moving westward beneath the high towards the Southeast coast Tuesday. Sufficient moisture, instability and shear will be present to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially through peak heating, though expect most storms to remain below severe limits. Coastal sections will see the best chances of precipitation Tuesday with the low or trough in the vicinity. High Monday expected in the low to mid 80s once again, but low level thicknesses begin to increase Tuesday with highs expected to generally be in the mid 80s, except low 80s coast.
High pressure will be centered off the SE coast Wednesday and Thursday with SW flow continuing to bringing a warm, moist and unstable airmass across the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Best chance of precipitation will come Thursday with increase SW flow aloft ahead of a digging longwave trough across the central CONUS and an embedded shortwave forecast to lift across the Southeast. Low level thicknesses support high in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday but drop some Thursday with highs mainly in the mid 80s.
A cold front approaches from the NW Friday and is currently forecast to push through the area Friday night. Continued moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to increase to around 30-40 kt and could see stronger storms develop. Highs Friday expected in the mid 80s. A more stable airmass moves in behind the front but could see an isolated shower during the day Saturday. Temps will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 915am Sunday...Light and variable winds will cont today with very loose pressure gradient cont over the region. Cont ENE swell will keep seas mainly in the 2 to 4 foot range with possible a 5 footer outer central and northern waters.
Prev disc...No changes needed to the current marine forecast as light, mostly E/SE winds continue across the marine zones. A weak cold front should slowly slide across the region today with winds shifting from SE this morning to NE by later this evening. Wind speeds should remain at generally 10 knots or less, except for perhaps a gust close to 15 knots around Diamond Buoy. Lingering ENE swells will keep seas in the 3-5 foot range today and tonight.
Long Term - Monday through Thursday: As of 430am Sunday...High pressure slides off the New England coast Monday and Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region and expect E winds around 10-20 kt Monday, trending to the SE Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure or open trough moves westward toward the Southeast coast. With a prolonged fetch of E winds, seas are expected to build during the first half of the week, though models have backed off from previous runs. Seas expected to build to 5-7 ft northern/central waters and 3-6 ft southern waters Monday night into Tuesday.
The trough dissipates Tuesday night with high pressure strengthening off the Southeast coast bringing S to SW winds around 5-15 kt Wednesday and Thursday. Seas expected to slowly subside to around 3-5 ft north and 2-4 ft south by Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday
As of 915am Sunday... Rivers have all crested and will cont to see levels gradient drop next several days. Still have major to moderate flooding over the southern portion of the area. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into flooded roadways. Lingering high water will continue to impact many areas with multiple roads flooded and closed
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ103. MARINE...None