Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Early This Evening, Then Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt Late This Evening, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Rough Early This Evening, Then Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Late This Evening, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm Early. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Choppy, Increasing To Rough In The Afternoon. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 235pm EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for much of eastern NC through this afternoon. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will cross the area this afternoon/evening with gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms expected. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. 2) Low probability (< 10%) of a wintry mix behind the front generally north of Highway 264. 3) Strong cold front next week poses a potentially higher severe risk. Marine...Conditions will deteriorate through the afternoon with Gales expected this afternoon through late tonight. KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong cold front, in tandem with a potent mid-level shortwave digging towards the mid-Atlantic and taking on an increasingly neutral to slightly negative tilt, is crossing NC this hour driving a band of a few thunderstorms embedded in a line of showers. Strong gust front is racing ahead of this boundary with several recorded gusts of 40-45 kt immediately ahead of it, while stronger cells are posting winds near the 50 kt range. Buoyancy is weak ahead of this boundary - around 500 J/kg - but low-level shear is quite impressive, exceeding 60 kt out of the southwest per Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis. Long straight hodographs favor organized storms to continue with a primary risk of damaging wind gusts, but a very brief tornado (lasting perhaps no more than a couple minutes at most) cannot be ruled out mainly in a QLCS setting. The front is expected clear the region by 5pm, ending the severe threat. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will fall so rapidly behind this front (approx 10+ degrees/hour) that some models are showing a brief changeover to a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet early this afternoon. Highest risk of this is primarily confined to Virginia, but HREF does point to a marginal (< 10% chance) of some mixed precipitation intruding in areas north of Highway 264. Given the low odds, this will not be conveyed in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGE 3...Next weather maker will be Sunday and Monday as a powerful Colorado low rapidly deepens over the central Plains and lifts towards the Great Lakes, quickly pulling a strong cold front across the southeastern CONUS and Carolinas. Finer details are yet to be determined, but it is likely the mid-level trough driving this cyclone will take on a neutral to negative tilt by the time the front reaches the Carolinas and quite a bit of shear will be present (likely at least 40 kt). Experimental mid-range AI guidance almost all are giving a signal for a severe risk, quite higher than today's with multiple hazards on the table. Storm Prediction Center currently has our area in a 15% risk, but this will need to be closely monitored in the coming days. Marine Increasingly hazardous marine conditions are expected tonight due to a strong cold front that will cross the area this afternoon/evening. Strong southwest winds of 20-30 kt with gusts to 35-40 kt are ongoing across area waters, with the exception of the far northern waters where the pre-frontal gust front is resulting in gusts exceeding 50 kt at times out of the north. Winds will continue to rapidly veer out of the north and surge to 30-40 kt with gusts to 35-50 kt through early this evening. Winds will quickly improve behind the front tonight into Friday with gusts forecast to drop below 25 kt by late tonight. Seas will peak this afternoon/evening at 5-8 ft. Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters, the Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the inland rivers but a few Gale force gusts are still possible, especially near the mouths of the rivers. The cold front will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms, the strongest of which will produce enhanced wind gusts upwards of 50 kt and brief waterspouts. Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Wind Advisory until 10pm EDT this evening for NCZ196-203>205. Marine Gale Warning until 8pm EDT this evening for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning until 10pm EDT this evening for AMZ150. |
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