Marine Weather Net

Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast


TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ136 Forecast Issued: 724 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers Early This Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Morning And Afternoon.
Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
814am EDT Sat July 20 2024

Synopsis
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the Carolinas for the next several days and be the catalyst for a prolonged period of unsettled weather that will continue into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 730am Saturday... - Scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall again today

This morning, a weak area of low pressure is located over western NC (near Wilkesboro), with a warm front extending east across northern NC. Meanwhile, a couple of MCVs are moving NE through the Southeast U.S. One is located near Atlanta, and the other is moving off the ENC coast.

Through the day today, the warm front should continue to lift slowly north in response to the wave lifting out of Georgia. This will put much of ENC in the "warm sector", if you will, with the greatest lift briefly shifting north into northern NC or southern VA. Through the day, that is where I expect the greatest coverage of convection to be. In light of this, I lowered the chance of showers and storms during the day. Locally, it appears sea/bay/river breezes, and possibly areas of differential heating, will be the main focus for isolated to scattered diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms. Where showers/storms develop, modest instability and a continued high PWAT (Precipitable Water) airmass should be supportive of heavy rainfall rates. Because of the scattered nature, I don't anticipate significant flooding concerns during the day. However, because of the recent rounds of rain across northern sections of ENC, flash flood guidance is notably low (only about 1-3"/hr). Therefore, even with a scattered coverage of thunderstorms, there could still be a few instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch was considered in this area, but in light of the scattered coverage and lower confidence on where the greatest lift will be, it was decided to hold off for now.

With the front lifting to the north, I expect more breaks in the clouds today. This in concert with a slight bump up in low- level thicknesses should support a bump up in temps compared to yesterday.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 200am Saturday... - Watching for a few stronger thunderstorms this evening

A mid-level wave (a remnant MCV (Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortice, a low-pressure center in a group of thunderstorms, that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex) from yesterday's Gulf Coast convection) is forecast to glance NC and VA this evening, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting an increased risk of thunderstorms. Short-term guidance is in generally good agreement on the convective risk this evening and tonight, but it's not the most solid signal. Synoptically, the pattern looks very similar to the past few nights, with an evening/overnight convective risk. The one difference tonight is the above-mentioned mid-level wave is forecast to lead to a bump up in the low-mid level flow, supporting an increase in deep layer shear (on the order of 20-30kt). This will be more supportive of organized convection. This plus added lift from the glancing wave and the frontal boundary in the area may support an uptick in the risk of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. I suspect most storms will be sub-severe, but the strongest cores could produce gusty/damaging winds and marginally severe hail (penny to quarter size). With more flow, storms should have a tendency to be more progressive. However, it appears the greatest overlap of lift and instability will be across our northern counties. Consequently, this is also where flash flood guidance is the lowest, and we'll have to keep an eye on this area for the possibility of some hydro concerns. Please see the "hydro" section below for additional information.

Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 220am Sat...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours will persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC through the period.

Sunday through Friday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values (Precipitable Water values) remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. Probability of Precipitation was lowered from the too high NBM which has categorical Probability of Precipitation through much of the period. We prefer to keep Probability of Precipitation in the chance to low end likely which is still above climo (40%). High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 200am Saturday... - Building winds and seas this afternoon and evening

- Thunderstorm risk continues

An area of thunderstorms will continue to impact all ENC waters early this morning, with occasional wind gusts of 20-40kt where the strongest thunderstorms occur. In the wake of this activity, a lull in thunderstorm activity is expected for a few hours as a warm front lifts north into the tidewater region of Virginia. Later today into tonight, an upper level wave will glance the area, with an associated surface low moving northeast from central NC into southeast VA. The increased gradient associated with this low may support a few hours of 25kt winds across portions of the ENC waters. Probabilistic guidance shows a mixed signal, suggesting about a 40- 60% chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds. With this forecast, I bumped winds up some compared to the previous forecast to account for this potential, but given the short nature and only modest probabilities, I opted to keep the waters headline free for now. We'll continue to re-evaluate this potential in later forecast updates. With the increase in winds, seas are forecast to build to 3-5 ft, especially from Oregon Inlet south.

Another round of thunderstorms appears plausible later this evening through tonight as the above-mentioned upper level wave glances the area. Where thunderstorms occur, there will be a risk of frequent, dangerous lightning, as well as 30kt+ wind gusts.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 220am Sat...The flow is expected to remain S/SW all waters through the period outside of convection. On Sunday and Tuesday wind speeds will be 10-15 kt while on Monday and Wednesday winds will be a little higher in the 15-20 kt range. Seas will be 2-4 ft through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through mid next week.

Hydrology
As of 220am Sat...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days such that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values (Precipitable Water values) expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour with locally higher amounts which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.

Marine
None.