Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop Late.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sat...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 614 PM EST Wed Dec 2 2020 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
Cool high pressure will build over the area through Friday. Another low pressure system will likely impact the area this weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
626pm EST Wednesday Dec 2 2020
Cool high pressure will build over the area through Friday. Another complex low pressure system is expected to impact the area Friday night and Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 620pm Wed...High pressure center will settle overhead tonight, expecting clear skies and light winds. Excellent radiational cooling will provide for yet another cold night with lows below freezing, with the OBX area being the exception. Calm winds will also allow most areas to decouple overnight, allowing temps to drop into the mid to upper 20s inland with low to mid 30s along the coast. Ended dropping low temps another degree or two to nudge it just below coldest MOS guidance.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 255pm Wed...High pressure lingering overhead will provide sunny skies and calm winds for Thursday. Low-level heights continue to gradually increase, allowing temps to warm in the afternoon. but still remain a few degrees below climo. Highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 50s, staying just shy of 60 in most locations.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 315am Wed...Cold high pressure will build into the area through midweek. Complex low pressure system is expected to impact the area Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will slowly build eastward across the SE US next week.
Thursday night...High pressure gradually shifting off the coast Thu night. Milder overnight with increasing cloud cover ahead of the next system, with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and 40s along the beaches.
Friday through Saturday...Models coming into better agreement with the low pressure system expected to impact the area, so forecast confidence is increasing. High pressure will continue to shift offshore Friday, while upper low strengthens moving through the south-central US into the TN Valley. Surface low will strengthen moving through the Carolinas Friday night and early Sat as the low becomes vert stacked lifting into the Mid- Atlantic and NE US late Sat and Sat night. The EC is a bit faster and stronger than the GFS and CMC...but in much better agreement with the overall pattern than the last few days. Forecast specifics still tbd this far out and given the lack of run to run consistency the past several cycles, but there is potential for isolated strong to svr tstms, locally heavy rain, strong winds, and minor coastal flooding...Fri night and Saturday. Looks like another high shear/low CAPE type event, very typical this time of year. Instability will be the limiting factor with 0-6 km shear around 50 kt. Increased probability of precipitation to likely and added sc tstm mention. Strong winds Fri night and Sat may also result in minor coastal flooding for portions of the NC coast.
Sunday through Wednesday...Surface high pressure over the central US will slowly build eastward through the period, while upper troughing remains in place. Another upper low is forecast to move out of Canada and the Great Lakes Sunday and through the SE US Early Next Week
which could induce cyclogenesis and surface low development off the SE coast. Below normal temps and mostly dry weather expected.
Short Term /Tonight through Thursday/... As of 620pm Wed...Boating conditions will continue to improve through Thursday as a strong high pressure system builds into the area. NW winds of 15-20 kts is ramping drop as the latest obs are showing NW 10-15 kts and becoming light and variable (around 5 kts) Thursday. Waves will drop from 2-4 ft to around 1-3 ft by Thursday afternoon.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 315am Wed...Should be very pleasant across the waters Thu with high pressure in control, N-W winds 5-10 kt and seas 1-3 ft. High pressure will shift offshore Thu night and Fri with SW 10-15 kt early Fri, increasing to 10-20 kt Fri afternoon with seas 2-4 ft. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate Fri night, and forecast confidence is increasing that most of the waters will see a period of Gale Force winds Fri night and Sat, as complex low pressure system is forecast to impact the waters. Gale force winds and double digit seas looking more likely now. The low will lift north of the waters Sat afternoon and evening, pushing a cold front through. Westerly winds will develop behind the front, diminishing to 15-20 kt Sun.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories