Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...N Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
410am EDT Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis: A cold front will move through the area early this morning followed by high pressure building in from the north today and tonight. The high will move offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning for the weekend. Tropical moisture will begin streaming through the region especially for the latter part of Memorial Day Weekend through mid week nest week.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 3am Thursday...The frontal boundary remains stalled across NE sections of the CWA early this morning but is expected to push south through the rest of the area shortly after daybreak. While the strongest storms have moved off the south coast, continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the front but this activity is expected to diminish late tonight as the front pushes through. Generally dry across much of the area today as high pressure builds in from the northwest, although could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze across southern sections this afternoon. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to around 80 coast
Short Term - Tonight
As of 3am Thursday...Dry conditions expected tonight with mainly clear skies as high pressure ridges in from the north while migrating off the mid-Atlantic coast. Lows expected to drop into the lower 60 inland to mid 60s closer to the coast.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
As of 410am Thu...The first part of Memorial Day Weekend should be quite pleasant, then increasing chances for showers by the tail end of the holiday weekend.
Friday...Return south to southeasterly flow will ensue as sprawling high pressure moves off the coast. Dry conditions expected with afternoon temps warming into the mid 80s interior to near 80 coast for highs. Only a very small chance for an iso shower or storm mainly for SW counties as some deeper moisture will be present here. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies expected. Conditions cont dry and mild Fri night with lows around 70 most areas.
Saturday...Continuing moistening and warming conditions expected, and some indications there will be sct showers around especially during the morning hours as some weak shortwave energy swings through. By afternoon, more of a typical summer time pattern with an iso or sct shower or storm for inland locales and rising heights.
Sunday...Tricky forecast as some model differences at play. Warm and humid conditions expected as southerly flow persists. However, weak ridging will be in place between tropical system in the GOM and Bermuda High offshore. The 24/00Z GFS is faster with bringing in surge of tropical moisture through E NC with widespread covg as early as Sunday afternoon, though ECM/CMC slower with ridging continuing through the day. Will blend more heavily with the drier solns, and continue the inherited chance pops, though raise them to around 40% inland, as ECM MOS pops indicate.
Sunday night into Monday...Much better chances for showers/storms arrive this period as a piece of tropical moisture impacts E NC, indirectly associated with the main tropical system in the GOM. Layer streamlines from the ECMWF indicate deep moisture convergence over ENC maximized late Sun night into Mon, and will raise probability of precipitation to 50-60%. Periods of heavy rain are possible as mix ratios inc to +14 g/kg and Pwats at or above 2 inches.
Tuesday into Wednesday...Fcst becomes less certain this period, as the area will still be under threat for showers and storms indirectly associated with the tropical system over the deep south. Will maintain higher chance probability of precipitation but cap them at 50%, as timing of potential shortwaves interacting with frontal boundary in the area will dictate when precipitation moves through the region. Nevertheless, it still looks like an unsettled period as very warm and humid air mass will still be in place. Highs this period generally in the mid 80s inland to near 80 coast. Lows will be 70-75
Short Term /Through Thursday/... As of 3am Thursday...The front remains stalled across the northern waters early this morning but is expected to push through late tonight as high pressure builds in from the NW. Seeing light SW/W winds around 10 kt or less south of the front and NW winds 10 kt or less to the north. The front is expected to push south of the waters shortly after 12z with N/NE winds around 5-15 kt the remainder of the morning, becoming NE/E this afternoon, then E 10 kt or less tonight as high pressure migrates off the mid- Atlantic coast. Seas around 2-4 ft this morning will subside to 1-3 ft this afternoon and tonight.
Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 410am Thu...Expect E winds at 10-15 knots winds veer to more SE/S by Friday, then inc 15-20 kt on Sat in response to a re- strengthening of high pressure offshore and increasing land/sea thermal gradient. Fetch of moderately strong southerly winds increases on Sunday, and in response seas will build to 6+ feet esp by Sunday night into Monday
As of 630pm Wed...KMHX radar is down until further notice, awaiting parts
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories