Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw Late This Morning And Afternoon. Waves Light Chop.|
|Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat.|
|Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Rain.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Rain Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely, Then A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345am EST Sat Feb 22 2020
Cold high pressure will build over the area from the west through this weekend, before another area of low pressure impacts the area early to mid next week. High pressure is forecast to build over the area late next week.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 3am Sat...Latest surface analysis shows broad 1033mb high pressure centered over the SE US. High pressure will continue to build eastward into the Carolinas today. This will result in a fairly pleasant day, after a cold start, with sunny skies. Low level thickness values support temps a few degrees below climo, but highs should make it into the mid/upper 40s along the Outer Banks and upper 40s to low 50s inland.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 3am Sat...High pressure will crest over the area tonight and early Sunday morning. Trended on the colder side of guidance, expecting good radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds. Low dropping into the upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s along the beaches.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 315am Sat...Cool high pressure over the area Sunday will slide offshore early next week, with warmer temperatures expected. Then, unsettled weather is likely through mid week as a large complex storm system slowly moves across the Eastern US. Much colder, and drier weather is expected by late week.
Sunday and Monday...High pressure will be overhead Sunday, and then will split Monday between areas over central NC, and offshore with a coastal trough developing in between. Increasing low level heigheights Sunday will allow for temps to reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with similar readings expected Monday. Showers will approach late in the day Monday as an elevated warm front moves towards the area.
Monday Night through Wednesday Night...The warm front will move over the area Monday night as its parent low winds up over the Ohio Valley and occludes. Thereafter the area will remain in a region of deep, moist southerly flow Tuesday and Wednesday with unsettled weather expected. Then later Wednesday, an area of low pressure will develop along the slow moving cold front to the west and help push the front through the area overnight into Thursday morning.
It will be quite unsettled during this period, with rounds of rainfall expected. The wettest periods appear to be late Monday night through Tuesday morning, and during the day Wednesday. Otherwise it will be very warm, with temperatures expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, and lows will remain mild.
Thursday And Friday
A deep upper level trough will be positioned to the west Thursday morning as the front crosses the region and winds turn to the west (with conditions quickly drying). Temperatures Thursday will likely drop through the day as Cold Air Advection strengthens behind the cold front and the upper level trough swings over the area. Not much change expected Friday either, and expect below average temperatures with readings falling into the 40s Thursday, and maxes Friday only in the mid to upper 40s. Low temps will be cold as well, with lows likely in the upper 20s to low 30s across the area.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 3am Sat...Latest obs show N/NNE winds 10-20 kt, still gusting to 25-30 kt across the outer central and southern waters, with seas 5-9 ft. High pressure will continue to build over the waters today and tonight with conditions gradually improving. Northerly winds will subside to 5-15 kt this afternoon, becoming NW 5-10 kt tonight. NWPS initialized a few ft too high this morning, so trended towards EC and Wavewatch. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the coastal waters today, with seas slowly subsiding. By early Sunday morning seas should be below 6 ft.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 340am Sat...Light and variable winds 10 kts or less expected through Monday with seas still subsiding from the last system and remaining 4-5 ft. Extensive period of southerly flow expected late Monday through Wednesday with winds generally SW 10-20 kts, and seas 4-6 ft.
Record Low temps for 2/22 (today)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 17/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 16/1963 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 18/1968 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 22/1988 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 19/2015 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 19/1959 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ150.