Marine Weather Net

Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ136 Forecast Issued: 317 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Becoming W Late. Waves Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then Diminishing To Light Chop Late.
Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight.
Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.
Thu Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Rain Likely.
Sat...Se Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming N. Waves Choppy. Rain Likely, Then A Chance Of Rain.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
251am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Synopsis
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6am THIS MORNING/... As of 920pm Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs (Precipitable Waters) and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar. However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10") will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% Probability of Precipitation /highest north-lowest south/.

Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of Cold Air Advection will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 4pm Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
As of 250am Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is forecast to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.

Friday through Monday
A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger surface low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase probability of precipitation and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night. Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 920pm Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW'rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 250am Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wednesday eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will gradient veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.

Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.

Fire Weather
As of 250am Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today.

Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wednesday - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 250am Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.