Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Tonight...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw Late. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop Late. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. Showers With Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. Showers With Tstms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Wed...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Thu...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight. |
| Fri...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 809pm EDT Monday Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal threat of severe thunderstorms remains in place for this evening for NWern zones of ENC. Wind forecast has strengthened ahead of the front/low system to cross the area late tomorrow. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued. Marginal threat of severe tstorms has been introduced for portions of the FA for TUE. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Marginal risk for strong to severe storms inland this evening. Dry again for Wednesday into Thu. Next precipitation chance is Fri. 2) Another Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms for most of ENC TUE afternoon and evening with frontal passage. 3) Becoming hot and humid again this week with highs in the 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s each afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure shifts offshore today while another shortwave swings Eward across the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region. This will drag a cold front into the Southeast, but as is typical this time of year, the front gets hung up or at least slows down, before reaching ENC. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms today, best chances inland this afternoon with the seabreeze though some offshore cells may skirt portion of the OBX. Breezier today as thermal gradient increases in addition to the cold front moving into the Piedmont. Some models indicate some weakening MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) activity arriving into interior ENC this evening, but this activity running into dry air should limit chances to no higher than 30-50% and mainly for our NWern FA. Best chance for a storm would be from around 8pm to 2am. Any storms that enter these areas could be on the stronger side as some renegade instability and shear of 20+ kt will be found here, with strong wind gusts the main threat. Because of this, Storm Prediction Center has the tier of counties furthest inland outlooked in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe storms. KEY MESSAGE 2...The front will then get kicked through ENC as a backdoor cold front TUE evening as stronger shortwave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. 12Z guidance has become more excited for the pressure expected to develop along the boundary, leading to slightly higher chances for more organized deep convection which has resulted in a forecast with higher PoPs, stronger SWerly winds, and greater Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Forecast currently advertising likely to categorical Probability of Precipitation from 1400edt into the evening hours. Nern zones have highest chances of seeing more organized and strongest storms, where best convergence and forcing will be for more widespread thundershowers. After coordination with neighboring WFOs and national centers, Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 1/5) for the bulk of the forecast area. Front will sweep offshore around or shortly after sunset TUE. Strongest precipitation activity will remain ahead of the front and conditions will dry the first half of tomorrow night behind the front, though some wrap around moisture on the backside of the departing low could lead to some lighter showers being pushed from N to S after sunset until around midnight. Dry a relatively cooler conditions (~70/90 split for WED) return for Wednesday into Thu with high pressure dominating. Next chance of showers and storms on Friday as next shortwave swings through the Sern CONUS. KEY MESSAGE 3...With the return SWerly flow, hot and humid conditions combine to produce uncomfortably warm heat indices, though most likely remaining below heat adv thresholds, with readings in the lower 100s each day early to late week. Brief break from the heat expected on Wednesday behind the frontal passage. when afternoon highs only in the low 80s OBX zones to upper 80s inland with lowered RH's as well. Heating back up Thu into Fri as return swrly flow returns. Marine High pressure strengthens offshore along with inland trough combined with approaching cold front, have lead to SSW winds 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt late this afternoon and evening. Some infrequent SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria gusts are occuring where funneling of these Serly winds is strongest, mainly over Croatan and Roanoke Sounds. An MWS has been issued for these waters through sunset. Nocturnal showers and storms possible outside of 20nm tonight. 12Z guidance coming in stronger with the low traveling along the front to work through ENC TUE has led to an increase in the wind forecast tomorrow and the issuance of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) across most of area waters for 15-25kt with gusts 30-35kt. Outlook (Tuesday night through Fri): The front will move through the waters Tuesday night with flow becoming N-NE 5-15 kt behind it. Shower activity diminishes quickly behind the front, though some lighter showers wrapping around the departing low will be possible around midnight. Return swrly winds for Thu into Fri though looks to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 1am EDT Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ156- 158-231. |
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