Marine Weather Net

Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ136 Forecast Issued: 944 AM EST Sat Mar 02 2024

Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Patchy Fog Late This Morning. Rain Likely Late This Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Early This Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Rain Late.
Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves Flat. A Slight Chance Of Rain.
Sun...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves Flat. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain.
Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain, Mainly In The Morning.
Mon Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.
Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
955am EST Sat Mar 2 2024

Synopsis
Unsettled conditions continue into midweek next week as multiple disturbances impact the area. A break in the unsettled weather should occur Sunday, Tuesday, and again Thursday.

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 955am Sat... Once again no significant changes to the forecast as of this update. Rain is slowly clearing out of our western Coastal Plain as of this update with widespread rainfall still occuring from Hwy 17 east. Still monitoring the potential for fog this evening as well and should get a clearer picture in future updates this afternoon.

Prev disc...As of 330am Sat...Expect continued widespread rain to start the day as surface low continues to track NE'wards along the NC Coast as ample forcing and moisture remain in place across the area. Area of lift and moisture will shift eastward through the morning, with rain tapering off early across warning zones, and off the OBX by late morning/early afternoon. South winds gradually turn swrly as aforementioned surface low moves off to the north and east. Some iso showers could linger behind departing system but few and far between. Temps will be quite warm as area is under sw flow and precip- free this afternoon, despite the lingering cloud cover. Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 interior to 50s beaches.

Short Term - Tonight
As of 330am Sat...Forecast challenge tonight is fog, and whether it will develop and become dense. Lingering low level moisture behind the departing low and plentiful earlier rains could set the stage for fog. However, it appears lots of cloud cover will linger in the low's wake, and should this be the case, more in the way of low cloud cover vs fog would prevail. Winds will be calm to light as weak cool front will drop in from the north, finally bringing the winds around to the north for most of ENC by daybreak Sun. Other fog threat may be marine fog, as winds turn swrly and light for coastal locales. Best chance for sea fog would be the Crystal Coast, newrd through the OBX. Temps tonight will be very mild in the 50s area-wide, some 15 degrees above climo.

Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 250am Sat...The models continue to indicate a quite unsettled pattern for next week as a series of low pressure systems move across or in vicinity of eastern NC bringing a very good chance for rain with several inches of rainfall possible. While there is still significant uncertainty in the timing of and track of these lows, there is strong agreement that the weather across eastern NC will be very wet.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expecting most of, if not all of Sunday to be dry as high pressure builds in to the area in the wake of the departing low Sat night. However, another area of low pressure will develop off the southeast coast late Sunday and track along or just off the NC coast Monday into Monday night with rain redeveloping across most of eastern NC after midnight Sunday night and continuing into Monday evening. Right now the heaviest amounts with this system are expected east of Highway 17. Probability of Precipitation will be in the high chance range but will need to be increased if this trend continues in subsequent model runs. Also will reluctantly hang on to 20-30 Probability of Precipitation along the coast Sunday though this now looks overdone and may need to be decreased or removed if the drier trend for Sunday continues. Temps will cont above climo with 60s to around 70 interior and 50s to 60s beaches, with lows well above climo continuing.

Wednesday through Friday...Confidence continues to be high for a mid week wet period, and will continue likely Probability of Precipitation centered on Wednesday afternoon through evening with highest ensemble support during this period. The rain threat with this system will linger into Thu as a trailing cold front moves through. This system looks to contain a decent GOM moisture feed and deep southerly moist flow, with another chance of fairly significant Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts of over 1" for most. Drier weather will be forecast for Thu night and Fri as high pressure briefly builds in. The models are indicating yet another low passing to the west over next weekend which would bring another good chance for rain beginning Fri night and persisting into at least a portion of next weekend. Temps will cont to be well above climo for early March with lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s to low 70s.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 330am Sat...SE'rly winds will peak this morning in the 15-25 kt range, highest ctrl waters where some ocnl gusts to 35 kt possible over warm Gulf Stream. Some gusts to 25 kt for Pamlico still possible despite strong marine inversion, so have left SCA intact here through early this morning before serly gradient winds shift off to the ne.

Dangerously high seas of 6-10 ft through this morning with the aforementioned serly gradient winds, will only slowly subside today into tonight, but remain above 6 ft through tonight and beyond as swell energy persists.

Threat for sea fog develops, esp late today through tonight, as favorable swrly flow and pre saturated boundary layer are in place. Have lowered vsby to 1-2 SM, though wouldn't be surpirsed to see some <1 mi. May need a marine dense fog adv with later updates.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 250am Sat...High seas cont through the weekend as a coastal low moves northeast departs the waters with decent serly to erly swell lingering through Sunday. Seas slowly subside late Sunday into Monday for the extreme northern and southern waters, but should linger above 6 ft south of around C Hatteras well into the week as series of lows Monday and again Wednesday increase winds over the warmer SST's over the outer waters.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 250am Sat...There is a localized threat for some ocean overwash and minor coastal flooding across portions of northern Ocracoke where dune structures remain compromised. This threat will likely emerge for a couple of hours around high tide starting Saturday morning and could continue through much of the weekend due to wave run up associated with long period E'rly swell and increasing SE'rly windswell in association with increasing S'rly winds from a deepening coastal low. As of right now impacts are forecast to be limited to the northern portions of Ocracoke north of the Pony Pens area where the weakest dune structures are located. There is some uncertainty with how long this threat may last so further extensions of the current Coastal Flood Advisory that is out for Ocracoke Island may become necessary in the coming days.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for NCZ204.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EST this morning for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EST Monday for AMZ156-158.