Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
650am EST Fri Nov 22 2019
High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast today, while a cold front approaches from the north and pushes through the area tonight. The front will then lift back north Saturday morning, before a stronger cold front moves across the area from the west Saturday night. High pressure then builds over the area Sunday into early next week, with another front approaching by mid week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 645am Fri...High pressure will remain off the Southeast coast today as a cold front approaches from the north. As the front gets closer, the gradient will increase, leading to breezy conditions this afternoon and evening across Eastern NC. Warming low level heigheights will support temps climbing into the mid to upper 60s across most of the area, with NE NC a bit cooler (low 60s).
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Saturday
As of 645am Fri...The cold front will push south across the area early tonight, but am not expecting much of any precip. There remains a small chance of showers across the Albemarle Sound and NE NC late this evening, but elsewhere should remain dry as most of the forcing stays to the north. Temps will initially be mild, but over the course of the night some cooler air will move into the area, especially across the northern tier of counties. Have low temps reaching the low 40s up north, and the mid to upper 40s further south and along the coast.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
As of 330am Fri...Unsettled weather prevails this weekend as low pressure passes north of the area, bringing a warm front through the area Saturday, and a cold front through Sunday morning. A generally settled pattern then emerges next week, with mainly dry conditions expected Monday through Thanksgiving.
Saturday through Sunday...Cutoff low aloft over the Great Plains will open into a southern stream shortwave as it moves toward the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure centered near the nation's capital will likely keep cold air damming in place early Saturday morning, with the CAD weakening late morning into midday as the high shifts offshore. Low pressure lifting along the Appalachian Mountains will bring a warm front through the area later in the day, with timing depending on the speed of the low and erosion of the CAD. Nonetheless deep layer moisture advection will bring increasing rain chances into the forecast, with greatest chances along the warm front, but even isentropically forced showers possible if the CAD does linger into the afternoon.
The region will be well within the warm sector Saturday night, with conditional instability and ample moisture justifying chance POPs Saturday evening despite the lack of significant lift. The low will pass north of the area early Sunday morning, with breezy southerly winds preceding a cold front that will cross the area within a couple of hours of dawn. Categorical POPs for most with the frontal passage, with limited instability prompting isolated thunder confined to the coastal, mainly along the southern OBX and Crystal Coast. Subsidence aloft and surface Cold Air Advection will bring an end to the precipitation by mid-Sunday morning, with dry and clearing conditions through the rest of the day.
Sunday Night through Thursday...Robust high pressure gradually sliding from over the Southeast to offshore will keep dry conditions in place early in the week. A moisture-starved cold front is expected to cross the area mid-week, with POPs too low to solicit a mention in the forecast at this point. High pressure then builds back in from the north, keeping dry conditions in place through the end of the forecast period. Temps trend from 5-10 deg below normal Monday to a few degrees above normal Wednesday, with the passage of the dry cold front bringing the return of cool temps late in the week.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 315am Fri...Some changes to the SCAs, have dropped both the northern waters and Pamlico Sound as conditions are no longer expected to reach criteria there today. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the southern and central waters beginning this afternoon, through the first half of tonight.
Winds are currently W 10-15 kts and are expected to strengthen to 15-25 kts this afternoon and evening. Then, a cold front will push south tonight through the coastal waters turning winds to the N behind it at 15-20 kts. Seas are expected to be mostly 3-5 ft through the period, though will increase to 6 ft across the outer central and southern waters this afternoon and evening.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 330am Fri...Southerly winds develop behind a warm front Saturday, becoming breezy Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are likely later Saturday through Sunday morning, with gales possible. Seas also respond to stronger winds, peaking at 5-9+ ft Sunday morning through afternoon. High pressure building across the Southeast will bring much more favorable marine conditions early next week, with light to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas prevailing for the end of the forecast period.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 8pm EST this evening for AMZ156-158.