Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Today...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon, Then Showers Likely Late. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Choppy. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Showers Likely. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 701am EDT Monday May 12 2025 Synopsis A slow moving low will continue to bring an extended period of unsettled weather to the area through mid week. This system will eventually weaken and dissipate by then, with a ridge of high pressure building in behind it by late week. Near Term - Through Today As of 7am Mon...Inc Probability of Precipitation trend is on track, as coverage and intensity of showers and a few storms is inc in Onslow Bay and will be moving ashore and expanding across the swarning zones, where flood watch in effect starting 8a. Prev disc... As of 4am Mon...An upper level low over the Deep South will become negatively tilted today allowing for deep moist convergence across ENC. Increasing lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper level low will enable developing instability despite only tepid surface heating. ML CAPE vals only in the 500 - 1,000 J/KG range however, so no severe expected. High PW's approaching 2" will pose a threat for areas of heavy rain, esp where some banding of heavy showers or storms occur. A long standing moderate drought is in place across most of ENC, so no severe flooding is expected. With LPPM vals reaching or exceeding 5" for swarning zones, there is some flood threat despite the drought conditions, and thus have hoisted a flood watch for these areas. This lines up where periodic surface ThetaE vals are highest and layer streamlines converge, and is the reasoning for the watch. Short Term - Tonight As of 4am Mon...A break in the heavier rain rates through first part of the evening, before reinvigoration of heavier rain rates arrives after 6Z with frontal forcing arriving first in the Coastal Plain counties, and then further east towards daybreak Tue. Heaviest rain rates are expected late tonight for the watch area, and will extend through the night and first half of Tuesday for this reason. Generally expecting widespread 2-3" for most of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to 5" for the counties in the watch. Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so are expected. Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday As of 3am Monday... Aloft: An upper low will become progressively more negatively tilted on Tuesday as it digs northeast across the OH River Valley. By late Wednesday, this upper low will become absorbed into the shortwave across the Mid-Atlantic states. The axis of the upper trough will traverse ENC late Wednesday/early Thursday with weak upper ridging briefly building in it's wake. A weak, quick hitting shortwave will pass Friday night followed by another, slightly stronger shortwave on Saturday with zonal flow taking over on Sunday. Surface: At the surface, an occluded low will move northeast into the OH River Valley with an additional low forming over western NC in response to the upper trough becoming increasingly negatively tilted. The warm front associated with the latter surface low will lift north across ENC Tuesday into Wednesday, putting us firmly in the warm sector. From there, the next FROPA won't be until Saturday, although not much of an airmass change is expected. Tuesday - Wednesday...The axis of greatest moisture will become more progressive through the day on Tuesday, shifting the area of heaviest rain from the southwestern counties in the morning to the OBX by the afternoon. Given PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 2" and the heavy rain already occurring ahead of Tuesday's round, flooding will be a concern, especially for areas south of US 70. The antecedent surface conditions will work in our favor given the ongoing drought, but efficient rain rates may still cause issues. Therefore, a Flood Counties and is currently in effect until 18Z Tuesday. Plenty of moisture and lift will remain in the area on Wednesday, which will support the continuation of likely to categorical PoPs. Thunderstorms will be likely in the afternoon, especially along any seabreeze boundary. And with a slightly drier column, rain rates will not be as efficient as they will be on Tuesday. Thursday - Sunday...Towards the end of the week, we'll return to a typical summertime pattern with daily chances of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will steadily climb through the week, reaching the 90s across the coastal plain Friday and Saturday. These temps, accompanied by dews in the low- 70s, will generate heat indices ranging from 95-100+. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 4am Mon...Winds will be generally, SE at 10-15 kts through tonight, and then increase to SE 15-20 kts with frequent gusts to 25+ kts starting this afternoon first for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, and then Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds tonight. Seas will be 2-5 ft through the morning, and then increase to 4-6 ft this afternoon. Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday As of 3:55am Monday...Dangerous boating conditions will persist through Tuesday. 15-25 kt southeasterly winds will gust to 25-30 kt on Tuesday with seas building to 6-8 ft. By Wednesday morning, the winds will have veered to the southwest, decreasing to 5-15 kt and seas dropping to 3-4 ft. Hydrology As of 4am Mon...Storm total rainfall is expected to be in the 2-3" range for much of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to a flood watch is in effect through early Tuesday afternoon. Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so are expected. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ079-090>092-198- 199. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 7am Tuesday to 4am EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 8am EDT Wednesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 4am EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 5am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ231. |
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