Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E This Afternoon. Waves Flat, Increasing To Light Chop This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Wed...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening.|
|Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Fri...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
729am EDT Tuesday July 14 2020
A weak front will push off the coast this morning, lingering offshore as high pressure builds in from the north through late week. A front will push southward for the weekend, increasing chances for unsettled weather.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 7am Tue...The weak front continues to very slowly push offshore, and is now oriented roughly from Downeast through the Pamlico Sound to Oregon Inlet. An isolated shower or two are possible immediately along the boundary over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, mostly clear skies with only a few locations showing patchy light fog to start the day.
Previous Discussion...With the upper ridge shifting east of the area, height rises and subsidence aloft will begin. At the surface, only weak advection is ongoing in the wake of the surface front that is pushing offshore this morning, with elevated low level moisture still in place across eastern NC. Mostly sunny skies through the morning will allow instability to build, and the weak gradient locally will allow the sea breeze to progress inland will as it wishes this afternoon. Despite the dry air aloft, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the sea breeze where pre-frontal compressional heating maximizes temps/instability this afternoon. The severe threat is limited by the dry air aloft, but a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out mid to late afternoon. Temps will be within several degrees of normal today, with humidity only marginally lower than Monday bring heat index values peaking in the upper 90s for most.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Wednesday
As of 230am Tue...Strengthening upper ridging will bring dry conditions overnight, with any storm activity expected to remain well offshore. Mainly clear skies should prevail by the overnight hours, and light winds will bring fairly efficient radiation cooling. Low level moisture remains elevated, and patchy shallow fog is possible early Wednesday morning. Temps remain near normal.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
As of 330am Tue...The upper trough residing over the east coast earlier in the week will move eastward off the coast and begin to lift out, giving way to upper level ridging that is expected to dominate the pattern through the end of the week. In the absence of any larger scale forcing, convection each afternoon will largely be instability driven with initiation likely to occur along the sea breeze. Storm Prediction Center supports this by maintaining general thunder through the week.
By Thursday, attention will turn to the Midwest, where a surface disturbance will attempt to organize and move into the Great Lakes region, trying to create some semblance of a frontal boundary but remaining largely disorganized until Friday when a strengthening of the surface pressure gradient is expected between two surface highs, one over the upper Midwest, the second off of the northeast coast. These features remain much better defined in the GFS solution as was the case yesterday, however would argue the GFS has moved towards the EC with a less defined surface low and uncertainty in the timing of any frontal boundary pushing south, if at all, into eastern NC for the weekend. Regardless of how well this feature organizes, low level moisture, and thus Probability of Precipitation will increase for the weekend but will keep at chance values for now. Early next week, a more organized boundary pushes south out of Canada, keeping the pattern fairly unsettled.
Highs this week generally in the low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Heat index values inland will push the mid to upper 90s most days this week.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 230am Tue...Generally light northeasterly winds prevail in the wake of a weak front that pushes offshore this morning. The sea breeze will be the dominate feature this afternoon with winds turning onshore and gusting to around 15 kt. Light winds then return across the area tonight. South to southeasterly short period swell slowly subsides, with 2-4 ft seas today becoming 2-3 ft tonight.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 330am Tue...Southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts gusting 10-15 kts should prevail through much of the forecast period with seas around 2-3 feet through Sunday before some 4 foot swell starts to creep into eastern edges of the coastal waters early next week as swly winds increase to 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196- 199-204-205. MARINE...None.