Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000pm EST Fri Jan 17 2020
Strong high pressure over the region will shift off the coast Saturday as another strong front impacts the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Cold high pressure then dominates the region for most of next week.
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/... As of 10pm Fri...Advancing and thickening cirrus shield may bring a halt to the downward trend in temps overnight, and lows likely met before midnight, before leveling off or slowly rising towards dawn. Adjusted hourly T's accordingly. No other changes.
Prev As of 7pm Fri...No big changes with early eve update.
Prev As of 230pm Friday...Latest surface analysis shows strong 1045mb high pressure centered over Southern Ontario and the Great Lakes region, extending into the SE US. Quiet and cold night expected across ENC. Gusty north winds will subside this evening as upper ridge and surface high pressure shift over the Carolinas. With clear skies early excellent radiational cooling conditions will initially be present and expect temperatures to drop quickly after sunset. Again leaned toward the colder guidance with lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s inland and low 30s along the beaches, but will see increasing mid and high clouds late tonight and Sat morning which could limit cooling.
Short Term - Saturday
As of 230pm Friday...High pressure will slide off the coast Saturday, as strengthening surface low pushes into the Great Lakes region and attendant cold front approaches from the west. Partly cloudy skies early with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Expect most of the day to remain dry, with isolated showers during the afternoon and evening, best chances along the coast. Southerly winds develop Sat afternoon allowing temps to climb into the low to mid 50s inland and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Friday
As of 245pm Fri...Another cold front will approach the area from the west with limited amount of moisture and push through Sunday morning with cold high pressure to dominate for the most of the upcoming week.
Saturday night and Sunday...The next cold front will approach the area from the west with light showers ahead and along the cold front. Models continue to show the best coverage to be Saturday night as omega and low-level convergence is at the highest, therefore continued the mention of chance to likely Probability of Precipitation Saturday night into Sunday. Showers will linger through mid-morning on Sunday with showers pushing offshore and skies start to clear from NW to SE Sunday afternoon as colder/drier airmass starts to filter into the area. Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s as the best cold air advection comes in Sunday night.
Monday through Friday...Arctic high pressure will establish itself over the region through most of next week, but a robust shortwave will dig down into the Deep South, something to watch. The models continue to show a low pressure system developing well offshore as a result from this shortwave. The latest Canadian/Euro model continue to show light showers on the back-side of the low pressure system and reaching the Outer Banks Tuesday and Wednesday, while GFS have little to no rain. Given uncertainty will continue with just slight chance Probability of Precipitation along the Outer Banks. Airmass is cold, but appears lower levels will remain above freezing across OBX so just have rain as ptype. By Thursday, the ridge builds back with high pressure to continue to dominate the area through Friday. Clouds may start to increase ahead of the next upcoming storm, but remain dry on Friday. with cool NE winds.
Expect cold temperatures on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the in the 40 to 45 degree range, then a slowly warming through the rest of the week, as high ranging 45 to 50 degrees Wednesday and Thurs, then upper 50s to around 60 degree Friday. Overnight lows, in the 20s inland to 30s beaches.
Short Term - Through Saturday: As of 230pm Friday...Latest obs show N/NNE winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt and seas 7-10 ft north of Ocracoke and 5-8 ft south. Dropped Gales this afternoon and replaced with SCAs. Winds and seas will be gradually diminishing this evening and overnight as high pressure builds in over the waters. Winds diminish to 10-20 kt late tonight with seas subsiding to 3-7 ft. High pressure will shift off the coast Saturday ahead of approaching cold front. NE winds 5-15 kt Sat morning becoming S 15-25 kt late Sat afternoon and evening. Expect conditions to deteriorate quickly after 4-5 pm Sat. Seas 3-6 ft Sat (highest across the outer central waters).
Long Term - Saturday night Wednesday: As of 245pm Fri... A cold front will approach the area with SSW winds increasing 25 to 35 kts Sat night with some Gale conditions likely and therefore went with a Gale Watch from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. When the front pushes through Sunday morning, winds become NW 15 to 20 kts, becoming N Monday. Then winds will increase 15 to 25 kt on Tuesday as a low pressure system develops well offshore. Seas peak 8 to 12 ft outer waters Sat night then slowly drop to 5 to 8 ft Sunday. Seas of 4 to 6 ft early Monday drop to 3 to 5 ft late. As N winds increase Tuesday seas build to 5 to 7 ft and continue through Wednesday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Saturday for AMZ150.