Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 340pm EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. The severe weather threat for Sunday remains with a 30% wind probability for much of the local area. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening. 2) A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week. As of 340pm EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening. The stationary front that crossed the area overnight has stalled as a stationary front to our south. This front will push back north tonight, keeping temperatures mild overnight. This will also bring a chance of showers to to the far south near the Ablemarle Sound this evening. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow and dewpoints in the 70s returns area-wide from the warm front lifting back north on Sunday. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night providing a strong forcing mechanism that will be able to overcome any environmental capping. Combined with the unstable airmass, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the area. The latest model package continues to show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg with steep lapse rates >6.0 C/km. Additionally, there will be more shear present that last night's storms with averages around 30 to 40 kts. Putting it all together, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms remains over almost the entire local area. There was some collaboration with Storm Prediction Center about possibly upgrading to an Enhanced Risk, but after collaboration with Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices, Storm Prediction Center has continued the Slight Risk. Cannot rule out an upgrade with future outlooks, given current model trends. The main threat with any storm is damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph+. A few discrete/supercells may also develop ahead of the main front Sunday afternoon-evening, bringing at least a low-end potential for large hail and even an isolated tornado. Finally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over urban areas. Given the wind profiles, training storms are not expected and storms will likely move fast, so any flash flooding will be isolated. WPC has expanded the Day 2 ERO to cover the eastern half of the area, excluding the Eastern Shore in a Marginal Risk of flash flooding. The cold front moves through a majority of the area Sunday night bringing cooler/drier air and ending the threat for any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer months, the front likely stalls near the coast allowing for unsettled conditions to continue into early next week. Temperatures will increase behind the warm front overnight, with highs climbing back into the mid 90s for the area (lower 90s along the immediate coast) on Sunday. Although humidity builds back in, heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s Sunday afternoon. The potential for meeting Heat Advisory criteria is highest across southside Hampton Roads and into northeast North Carolina. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week. An upper trough develops over the eastern half of the US early next week. In addition, the front from Sunday lingers near eastern portions of the area bringing continued chances for showers or thunderstorms into Monday across S/SE portions of the forecast area. Rain chances/cloud cover likely expands a bit further N/NW on Tuesday. Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of next week with high temperatures Monday near to slightly below average, ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south (upper 70s to around 80 Eastern Shore). Temperatures may stay in the upper 70s for a majority of the area on Tuesday with the increase in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of next week as the trough begins to break down. Thursday may approach Heat Advisory criteria. Marine As of 330pm EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Mainly Sub-Advisory conditions expected through Sunday, with a surge of northerly winds bringing the potential for low-end SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) Monday in the Bay. A stalled boundary had moved well south of the area, with weak surface high pressure in place. E-NE winds average 5-10 kt this afternoon. with seas only 1-2 ft and waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. The winds remain ~10 kt or less overnight, and shift to the S. Another cold front approaches the region Sunday, bringing a round of thunderstorms (mainly late in the aftn/evening) that could contain locally severe wind gusts. Outside of storms, S-SE winds increase to ~15kt over the bay and rivers and 15-20kt over the coastal waters during the afternoon, becoming SW Sunday evening. Local wind probs are rather low for 18 kt sustained winds in the Bay (20-30%), and with the typical bias with southerly flow will not be issuing any headlines through Sunday, though SMWs will likely be needed with convection. Seas increase to 3-4ft, up to 5ft well past 20 nm. Winds turn to the W behind the front (~15kt) late Sunday night, then to the N Monday morning. Models tend to underestimate these northerly surges, and latest wind probs have increased to >50% over much of the Bay Monday morning as some of the high res models are starting to have an influence in the forecast. Too early to issue headlines, but think there is a good chance for short- lived SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the Bay and possibly the sound and lower James Monday. Seas will average 2-4 ft Monday, and 2-3 ft in the Bay, with diminishing waves/seas by Monday afternoon. Tides: Elevated southerly winds along with high astro tides will lead to minor/nuisance flooding into the MD eastern shore portions of the Bay Sunday evening/night. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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