Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
15 - 20
5 - 10
10 - 15
15 - 20
|Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain Early This Morning.|
|Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.|
|Fri...Se Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...S Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E In The Evening, Then Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft, Then 1 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
424am EDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023
Low pressure moves well off the Carolina coast this morning, with highs pressure building back in from the west later today. A dry cold front moves through tonight, with high pressure building back in from the northwest on Thursday. The high slides off the coast Thursday night and Friday in advance of a cold front approaching from the west. The front moves through late Saturday, with high pressure returning for Sunday.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... The latest WX analysis indicates ~1010mb surface low pressure pushing farther off the SC coast, with a zonal/W flow aloft. Showers have ended along and W of I-95, but will continue for another 1-2 hrs to the east (but will end by sunrise). Rainfall amounts have averaged 0.15 to 0.30" across the N, with 0.40-0.80"across southern VA and interior NE NC (with a few sites reporting ~1.00"). Temperatures range through the 40s, but will likely fall a few degrees through sunrise. Generally do not think there is enough time for even patchy frost in the NW zones given continued temperatures only fall in into the upper 30s for an hr or two.
For today, expect clearing to be slow this morning E of I-95, with partly to mostly sunny skies well inland. Staying cool today (bet seasonable) with highs mainly into the lower 60s well inland, with mid to upper 50s at the coast. SCT clouds this afternoon. A secondary cold front moves through tonight, with just increasing mid/high clouds for awhile later this evening. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s across the north to the lower-mid 40s SE. While the Frost/Freeze program has started all zones, we are still only issuing Freeze Warnings at this time and do not anticipate seeing anything more than patchy frost across the north (may not be any frost given that mixing as the front will prevent decoupling for most).
Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... Very dry Thu behind the cold front, w/ dewpoints falling into the teens across NE portions of the area Thursday with highs in only into the lower 50s NE to the lower 60s SW. High pressure moves offshore Thursday night with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most (except lower to mid 30s across the Eastern Shore Thursday night). Will need to monitor the Eastern Shore for the potential of a freeze Thursday night depending on how much decoupling occurs. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday night into Friday, placing in the region in warm SW flow for Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 60s to low- mid 70s under partly sunny skies. Most of the moisture stays NW of the CWA (County Warning Area) Fri afternoon. though a small chance for showers is possible across the piedmont by later afternoon. Deeper moisture moves into at least northern portions of the area Fri night as strong low pressure tracks from the mid MS Valley to the Great Lakes. Remaining warm Fri night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s> will have showers likely N to chance S.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 410am EDT Wednesday... By Sat morning, expect showers to be ongoing across the local area with the model consensus being that ~985mb surface low will be centered across Michigan or SW Ontario w/ a potent upper low lagging back to the W over Lake Michigan. Probability of Precipitation will be highest (50-70%) through Sat morning/early afternoon. with good model consensus that a significant dry slot arrives during the aftn. Instability increases by afternoon and there may be enough lingering moisture for a few thunderstorms before the showers end near the coast. Overall though, the bigger concern is the continued signal that deep mixing will develop in the afternoon dry slot as a strong low level jet moves over the region. With much drier air filtering in behind the pre-frontal trough, dewpoints likely rapidly fall late Saturday afternoon/evening with wind gusts to 40-50mph. The actual cold front looks to not push through until the evening with little chance for additional showers/thunderstorms given the much drier airmass (at least that is what the models show right now, if this changes then a severe wind threat would be a concern w/ any storms that develop). Winds diminish later Saturday night as they become NW. Warm on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 (low to mid 70s Eastern Shore).
High pressure moves in behind the front on Sunday w/ mostly sunny conditions expected Sun-Mon. Much cooler Sat night with lows falling into the 40s by Sunday AM, with highs SUnday only in the 50s NE to low-mid 60s SW. Lows Sunday night in the upper 30s to low-mid 40s. Turning warmer Monday with highs mainly in the 70s as winds shift back to the SSW (60s to near 70F eastern shore). The GFS (Global Forecast System) trended wetter for Tuesday but is an outlier and will maintain only 10-15% Probability of Precipitation for Tuesday with highs well into the 70s to near 80F. Lows in lower to mid 50s Monday night.
As of 350am EDT Wednesday... Breezy NE winds will subside this morning as a surface low pressure tracks east over the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will become centered over the region later on Wednesday and will result in light and variable winds for marine ares this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory has been issued for late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning as a cold front drops south across the area. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday evening and early Wednesday night ahead of the cold front. Southerly winds are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria at around 15 kt with brief gusts up to 20 kt. The cold front will quickly move south after midnight tonight with winds abrupartly turn from S to N and increasing behind the front. Between 1am and 10am Thursday, winds are expected to become N 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt behind the cold front. Therefore, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and Atlantic coastal waters north of Parramore Island, VA. Seas and waves will jump to around 4 ft as a result of the increase in northerly winds. Winds are likely to quickly diminish late Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon as a center of high pressure moves over the area.
A strong storm system is forecasted to impact the area Friday and Saturday. SW winds are expected to increase beginning on Friday afternoon. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely for Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday night. the SW winds will continue to increase Friday night into Saturday with Gale conditions likely beginning early Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Winds gusts between 30 kt and 40 kt are likely. Brief gusts up to 45 kt are possible Saturday afternoon, especially near the shore. Winds will become NW behind a cold front that will move off the coast late Saturday or early Sunday. Gale conditions remain possible into early Sunday morning. 4 to 6 ft waves are possible in the bay during the time. Seas are expected to climb to 5 to 10 ft on Saturday.
NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 1pm EDT Thursday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 1pm EDT Thursday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 1pm EDT Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 3am to 10am EDT Thursday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 10am EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.