Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sat...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 346am EDT Fri September 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... WPC has introduced a Day 2 Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions of the area Saturday-Saturday Night. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain. 2) Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week, with temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge builds back into the region. As of 330am EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled and humid through Sunday as a frontal boundary lingers near the region, bringing scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and localized heavy rain. Latest surface analysis indicates a surface cold front slowly dropping south of the Mason-Dixon line early this morning, with scattered showers across the far northern portions of the CWA. Sfc-based and ML CAPE values are generally ~500 J/Kg but CIN is also present so there has been little to no thunder over the past several hrs. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are elevated however, around 1.80" to 1.90" over northern portions of the FA, so these showers are putting down heavy rain and have been backbuilding so will continue to monitor the potential issuance of Flood Advisories and even FFWs if some of these reach into the more urban areas later this morning. The CAMs have not been handling this activity particularly well thus far, so the diminishing coverage depicted after sunrise is a bit uncertain. As the front sinks south later today, most of the guidance shows showers/storms redeveloping mainly along and S of I-64 this afternoon into this evening. The cold front drops south into the region late tonight, with the front stalling across southern VA and NE NC Friday afternoon. The 11/00z HREF PMM mostly highligheights a 70% signal for 1"/3-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast along and south of this boundary (southern VA/interior NE NC, but most areas are only in the 10% prob for 3"/3 hr, indicating too much uncertainty for any Flood Watches. Nevertheless, localized downpours and some localized flash flood issues remain the primary hazard, focused S-SW of I-64, with a Day 1 Marginal ERO. Temperatures will feature a relatively sharp gradient today with more sunshine through mid afternoon across the south, expect highs into the lower 90s, with northern areas in the low-mid 80s. The front continues to sink south tonight, with most of the showers/storms ending overnight. There does appear to be a good signal for low stratus and possible some fog across the piedmont overnight. Humid with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s south, with somewhat drier air to the north where lows drop into the mid 60s. Widespread precipitation chances peak Saturday, as the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front, along with a more pronounced mid-level shortwave disturbances push across the area. High precipitable water values, modest instability (skinny CAPE profile), and weak steering flow should yield efficient warm rainfall processes and additional localized hydro concerns (supported by an area-wide WPC ERO Marginal Risk and a localized upgrade to Slight for portions of the I-95 corridor, including metro RIC. Considerable cloud cover will keep a lid on Saturday highs to the low to mid 80s N, but highs reach into the upper 80s SE. There may even be some weak CAD, potentially keeping far NW zones even cooler (but still very humid). The boundary washes out Sunday, leading to noticeably lower convective coverage for the NW 1/2 of the area, but Probability of Precipitation remain high chance to likely for the SE. KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry with seasonable temperatures early next week, with temperatures warming above normal by midweek as an upper ridge builds back into the region. The upper level flow becomes NW on Monday as a strong upper level trough dives SE from the Great Lakes and pushes off the NE and mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, with an upper level ridge slowly expanding NE from the lower MS Valley. This looks strong enough to drive the surface cold front south of the CWA Monday, and bring significantly lower dew pts more typical of September. Becoming mostly sunny with highs in the 80s Monday, followed by a cooler, more pleasant night Monday night/Tueam with lows mostly in the low-mid 60s with some 50s possible across the piedmont and interior MD eastern shore as surface high pressure builds south. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances gradually tick back up mid-to-late week as heat and moisture start to return as the upper level ridge expands E-NE to the TN Valley and central/southern Appalachians. Marine As of 125am EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from this weekend through Monday morning. - Low-end SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are possible with NE winds behind a front late Monday- Monday night. A weak cold front is just north of the waters early this morning, though there is some variability in wind direction as convection crossed portions of the area an hour or two ago. Wind speeds are 5- 15 kt (highest south). A few gusts to 20 kt cannot be ruled out across the lower Ches Bay from now-sunrise, but no SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are planned. Seas are 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves. The front is forecast to cross the waters from late morning-afternoon. A wind shift to the NE is expected following the FROPA, with wind speeds increasing to 10-15 kt by late in the day. The front appears too weak to bring SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, and local wind probs show less than a 10% chance of sustained 18 kt winds. The flow becomes E then SE Friday night into Saturday, with winds generally 10-15 kt (highest north) through Saturday night as the front moves back north as a warm front. Winds become S-SW at ~10 kt on Sunday. Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) marine conditions are favored through early Monday. Another front is expected to cross the marine area on Monday, with a wind shift to the NE following the FROPA. This front appears to be a bit stronger, with some of the 00z models showing the potential for low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions behind the front late Monday. Winds quickly subside and shift to the east Monday night-Tuesday so any SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) would likely be relatively short duration. Though it is 72- 84 hours out, local wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 30-40% across the lower bay and southern coastal waters from Monday aftn-Monday evening. Waves and seas will likely remain 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft from late tonight into Monday morning, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level seas possible (mainly south) by late Monday-Monday night as winds become NE. The rip current risk will remain low today, with the northern beaches bumping up to moderate on Saturday as flow becomes onshore. A low rip current risk returns to all beaches on Sunday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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