Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw This Evening, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Subsiding To 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 330pm EST Sat Jan 25 2025 Synopsis High pressure remains centered south of the local area through Sunday, with a weak cold front crossing the region into Monday, bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. A more significant warmup is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, along with dry conditions as low pressure passes by well to our north. A strong cold front brings a brief cool down late next week, followed by a chance for rain by Saturday. Near Term - Through Sunday As of 255pm EST Saturday... Key Message: - Remaining dry with seasonable temperatures tonight and Sunday. The latest WX analysis indicates a fast moving zonal flow aloft, with strong (> 1030 mb) surface high pressure centered from the eastern Gulf coast region to the Carolina coastal plain. The sky remains clear with a few high clouds N of the local area. Temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 40s this afternoon across most of the region, with upper 30s to around 40F near the coast. The surface high continues to drift to the east tonight, as low pressure passes by well to our north (across eastern Canada). A subtle, sheared out shortwave aloft will lead to an increase in high clouds, and in combination with the tightening pressure gradient, the airmass will stay somewhat mixed keeping low temperatures tonight much milder than what has been the norm over the past week- look for lows overnight to average in the upper 20s to lower 30s under a partly cloudy sky (a few spots across interior southern VA and NE NC may decouple and drop into the mid 20s). Zonal flow aloft persists on Sunday, with the main upper trough staying over the upper Great Lakes and northern New England/eastern Canada. The surface high to our south weakens as it becomes centered across the SE coast, bringing a dry westerly flow to the mid Atlantic. High clouds may be rather thick at times Sunday, but with decent mixing, highs look to rebound into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the CWA, locally cooler on the eastern shore. Short Term - Sunday Night Through Tuesday As of 300pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - A weak front crosses the area Sunday night/Monday but conditions still look dry. - Turning warmer Tuesday and remaining dry. The next shortwave dives SE from central Canada towards Ontario and Quebec Sunday night through Monday night, bringing enough amplification to push a (weak) cold front through the mid Atlantic. Lows Sunday night will be dropping into the 20s to lower 30s, but with the core of the cold airmass staying displaced off to our N/NE, high temperatures Monday look to rise back into the upper 40s N to the lower 50s S. At this time, no chances of rain are expected as the weak disturbance stays to the south Monday, though clouds are likely to linger over southern VA and NE NC until late in the day. High pressure settles across the Gulf coast region Monday night through Tuesday, and this setup will keep us dry with warming temperatures; lows range from the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday night followed by high well into the 50s Tuesday, potentially near 60F over south central VA and interior NE NC. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday As of 320pm EST Saturday... Key Message: - Dry with high temperatures above normal midweek (Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week). - A brief cool-down is expected late in the week, followed by a chance for rain Saturday. It potentially turns very warm beyond that. The latest 12z/25 ensemble guidance continues to show a strong upper trough in place over eastern Canada and New England, with an upper level ridge developing from the southern Plains to the Gulf coast/deep south. Strong surface low pressure dives ESE from the upper Great Lakes to New England and Atlantic Canada from Tuesday night through early Thursday. A strong pressure gradient and deep mixing is expected locally, allowing highs Wednesday to climb into the 60s for much of the area, with 50s on the eastern shore. By Wednesday night, the NW flow aloft approaches from the upper midwest, pushing a much stronger cold front south to the Carolinas overnight. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 20s N to the mid 30s S, but it stays dry. High pressure from Canada (~1035 mb) will move in bringing temperatures back down a little below average for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s NE to the mid/upper 40s central and S. Overrunning moisture is expected to move in as we approach next weekend, though there are some model timing differences. The surface high, while strong initially, looks too transient to lead to any p-type concerns, with just plain rain expected Saturday, along with highs in the 40s and 50s. Marine As of 215pm EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected this weekend into early next week. 1032mb high pressure is centered over southern AL/GA this afternoon with low pressure well to the north of the region near Hudson Bay. Winds are 5-10 kt but directions vary considerably across the local waters. Waves are around 1 foot in the bay with seas not much higher...around 2 ft. The pressure gradient briefly tightens tonight as the trough associated with the aforementioned low in Canada skirts by to the north. Winds become SW and increase to ~15 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt offshore (highest N) tonight before becoming W 10-15 kt by daybreak Sunday. Winds generally remain out of the west 5-10 kt through most of Monday. Winds become SW and increase Monday evening/overnight in response to another surface trough moving by to the north. This period will need to be watched for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines but given the very cold near-shore waters, mixing will be limited with limited momentum transport down to the surface. A more robust low moves from the Great Lakes into New England Wednesday, dragging a strong cold front across the waters. A period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions is possible Wednesday night into Thursday with strong cold advection/pressure rises in the wake of the front. Waves in the Ches Bay build to 2-3 ft with seas 2-4 ft tonight as winds briefly increase. Expect waves to average 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through through early next week, perhaps approaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Wednesday night and Thursday with the stronger post frontal surge. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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