Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...E Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Thu...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 843pm EDT Sat September 14 2024 Synopsis Strong high pressure will remain centered northeast of the region through the weekend, while low pressure lingers just off the Southeast coast, keeping mainly dry weather through Sunday night. Low pressure moves northwest into the Carolinas on Monday, and is expected to linger across the region through midweek, bringing a good chance for rain to the local area. Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning As of 830pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: -Mainly dry and dry night. -Gusty evening along the coast. The latest WX analysis shows strong surface high pressure (1027mb) centered across northern New England, with ~1008mb low pressure situated well off the Carolina coast. The pressure gradient in between these 2 features continues to bring gusty E/NE winds to areas near the coast, while inland portions of the FA have seen winds drop of to 5-10mph or less. The sky remains mostly cloudy near the coast, with some low clouds (CIGs around 1000 ft) showing up in the obs. Temperatures are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. The surface high across northern New England will slowly build south overnight, keeping the pressure gradient tight over the region, with breezy conditions along the coast. The sky will be mostly cloudy along the coast and partly cloudy inland through midnight, but with an increase in clouds well inland after 06Z as low stratus develops (similar to last night/earlier today). Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to around 70F near the coast in SE VA/NE NC, with most of the CWA (County Warning Area) dropping into the low-mid 60s. Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday As of 345pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry weather for Sunday and Sunday night. - Rain chances increase for Monday afternoon through Monday night. High pressure will linger over or just off the New England coast Sunday through Monday night. Meanwhile, a non-tropical low pressure system will continues to linger off the southeast coast gaining energy and nudging slowly north. This low is forming off a baroclinic boundary, but may develop into a subtropical or tropical characteristics with time. As of the last NHC update (1PM) there is a 50% chance of this low potentially forming into a subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Even if this system does not become tropical it could potentially bring in an adequate amount rain early next week. High pressure will maintain mainly dry conditions for Sunday through Sunday night outside of a few light showers possible across NE NC (15-20% PoP). Temperatures will be around seasonable with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to middle 60s. Monday the chances of probability of precipitation will increase throughout the day. Latest model guidance continues to suggest on this low making its way across North Carolina and tracking northeast. This track would favor the central and southern portion of the CWA to see some sufficient rain falls. Right now probability of precipitation have increased to 30-40 percent around the Richmond metro area and 50-60% across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. The latest ERO from the WPC has put northeastern North Carolina under a slight risk. By Tuesday the chances of probability of precipitation increase (60-70%) around the piedmont as the system potentially tracks to the northeast. The current ERO from the WPC only has a marginal risk as of the last update but would not be surprised if the risk is increased with higher confidence. Over these 72 hours most of the CWA could see rainfall totals in excess of 1.5" of rain. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be slightly cooler with the abundance of cloud cover and highs will only reach into the middle to upper 70s. Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday As of 345pm EDT Saturday... - Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers. Latest ensemble guidance have a decent agreement on the synoptic pattern in place. After this system exits the area a weak upper level trough lingers through late next week. With this weak upper level trough lingering a small chance of probability of precipitation (20-40%) remain in the forecast for the remainder of the week decreasing as the week continues. Wednesday looks to have the best chance of isolated to scattered showers with Probability of Precipitation chances remaining between 30-40%. Then as the week continues and the upper level trough exits the area Probability of Precipitation chances decrease to 20-30% by late next week. Also, given the trough in place across the SE underneath a tall ridge into Canada, temperatures will be seasonable/ slightly cooler later in the week. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday and Friday. Then possibly by next Saturday highs will only reach into the middle 70s. Marine As of 345pm EDT Saturday... Key Messages: Key Messages: - Onshore flow will continue through the weekend into early next week. - Gale Watches have been issued for the southern waters from Monday afternoon through part of Tuesday morning, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the remainder of the area marine area from this weekend into early next week. - Low pressure off the Carolina coast may acquire tropical characteristics as it approaches SE NC. - Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to persist well into next week. Low pressure continues to linger off the Carolina coast this afternoon with high pressure still over New England. The gradient between these two features continues to result in a 15-20 kt NE wind (with gusts to 25 kt). Seas have built to 5 ft N/6-7 ft S. Not expecting much change in the synoptic pattern during the remainder of the weekend, although the low the Carolina coast may strengthen and drift to the NW toward SE NC. Therefore, expect the ENE-NE wind to persist (and wind speeds will increase to ~20 kt by late Sunday with gusts approaching 30 kt in the Lower Bay/southern coastal waters). Seas build to 6-9 ft (with 3-5 ft waves on the bay) by Sunday evening. While the degraded marine conditions will continue early next week...forecast uncertainity increases as the above mentioned low could acquire some tropical characteristics by Monday with NHC still showing a 50% chance of subtropical or tropical development. Most of the 12z/14 models are faster with the low (with the notable exception of the ECMWF). They now forecast it to move inland across SE NC on Monday (although there are still timing differences on the order of 3-6 hrs between the GFS/NAM/CMC and CAMs. As such, ENE winds may increase to 25-30 kt (with 35+ kt gusts possible) as early as Monday aftn/evening. The potential for gale force gusts persists through at least Tuesday AM. Local wind probs show a 30-40% chance for wind gusts of 34kt or greater during the Monday PM-Tuesdayam timeframe. The probs would likely be higher if it were not for the 3-6 hr timing differences between the deterministic models (as most of them show a 3-6 hour period of low-end gale gusts). Therefore, went ahead and issued Gale watches for the Lower Bay, Lower James, coastal waters S of Cape Charles, and Currituck Sound from Monday aftn-Tuesday AM. Have also extended all SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) through Tueam and issued one for the upper rivers from Sun-Tuesday AM. Future shifts will likely need to extend the SCAs. Winds slowly diminish on Tuesday as the low tracks N-NW well inland and the pressure gradient near the coast relaxes a bit. Winds gradually veer to the SE by Tuesday night and diminish to ~15 kt by Wednesday before becoming N-NE at around 15 kt late this week. Seas will be highest on Monday night/Tuesday (potentially 8-10+ ft S where High Surf Advisories may be needed), with a diminishing trend as we head later into the week. Seas remain above SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through at least Wed. Increasing onshore flow and building nearshore waves will result in hazardous surf conditions and a high risk of rip currents from Sun- Tue. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 345pm EDT Saturday... Astronomical tides will increase this weekend into early next week with the approach of the next full moon. This will combine with persistent onshore flow, which will result in increasing tidal anomalies. Nuisance tidal flooding will with tonight's high tide cycle (mainly at the more sensitive locations), with more widespread minor flooding expected by Sunday night into early next week, especially in the lower Ches Bay, lower James River, and the ocean- side S of Wachapreague. Moderate flooding is possible in spots Monday night and Tuesday depending on the potential development of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast. Depending on trends, coastal flood watches may be needed (especially in areas adjacent to the Lower Ches Bay and tidal York/James Rivers). NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Monday for ANZ632>634-638- 656-658. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ632>634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10am Sunday to 6am EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637. |
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