Marine Weather Net

Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ230 Forecast Issued: 612 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Rain Likely.
Sat...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely, Then A Chance Of Rain.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
636am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Synopsis
High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast today and Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing across the region. A cold front pushes across the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building to the north Thursday and Friday.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 345am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

1. An Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect from late morning through early this evening for much of the area.

2. Cooler today with gusty winds expected (gusts of 20-25 mph inland, up to 30 mph along the eastern shore of VA/MD).

Latest analysis reveals ~1004mb surface low pressure offshore of the coastal Carolinas, with strong surface cold front now offshore of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coast. To the SW, 1027+mb sfc high pressure was analyzed over the west-central gulf coast. Cooler and breezy W-NW winds today, with only some passing mid to high clouds over northern sections later this morning in association with additional weak shortwave energy passing mainly to our north. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Breezy today, with the pressure gradient remaining compressed between low offshore and high pressure building across the gulf coast.

Main forecast issue today will be the wind and the increasingly dry conditions. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these gusty winds and expected low RH afternoon as flow aloft becomes increasingly downslope (W-NW), wildfire danger will be elevated. See fire weather section below for additional details.

Clear and seasonably cool tonight. Nudged temperatures upward slightly along the coast with boundary layer to remain well- mixed, with breezy conditions continuing through the night. Lows mainly in the upper 30s to around 40 inland (middle 30s along the US-15 corridor well inland), lower to middle 40s along the VA/NC coast.

Short Term - Wednesday Through Thursday Night
As of 345am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

1. Warmer and windy on Wednesday.

2. Continued concern for fire danger issues with gusty W-SW winds and increasingly dry conditions.

3. Turning cooler but remaining dry for Thursday.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, in compressional heating ahead of another mainly dry cold front. Northern stream low pressure will drop out of the Canadian Prairies into SE Ontario with its cold front dropping across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians during the day on Wed. Ahead of the front, increasingly gusty W-SW winds are expected (15-20 mph Wednesday afternoon with gusts to 30-35 mph), which will only exacerbate the dry conditions that have been present through the week. These winds will obviously keep fire danger a concern, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect in anticipation of the low RH and gusty conditions. The frontal passage itself comes Wednesday evening and does not look to bring any precipitation to the region. Warmer Wednesday with highs well into the 60s (some readings ~70 possible). Clear or mostly clear Wednesday night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s.

Cooler behind the front on Thursday, with high pressure nosing in from the northwest, eventually building north of the region by Thursday night. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and despite the cooler conditions, wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south- central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. Cooler Thu night with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees SE coast.

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 345am EDT Tuesday... The high slides E-NE into New England to begin the day Friday morning. Meanwhile, the next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday afternoon and evening and possibly lingering into Saturday. The 00z/19 GFS (Global Forecast System) has trended slower toward the ECMWF/EPS solution, with the CMC a middle ground solution (slightly more progressive). While temporal and spatial disagreements continue, this paints a rainier picture for the region Friday night into Saturday, especially along and east of I-95. Have nudged Probability of Precipitation up a bit into likely range Fri night and Saturday, with best rain chances early Saturday into Saturday afternoon. Will have lingering chance Probability of Precipitation into Sunday morning along the Delmarva coast, while gradually drying out well inland. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday.

Marine
As of 345am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

- Strong NW winds continue early this morning with Gale gusts possible.

- Winds remain mostly elevated into early Thursday morning.

- Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of strong winds and elevated seas this weekend into early next week.

Early morning surface analysis depicts a cold front south of the local waters with strong high pressure across the Deep South and low pressure off the coast of New England. The pressure gradient between these features has allowed for strong NW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 30-35 kt (highest across the lower Ches Bay where gusts to 40 kt have been observed) overnight which will continue into this morning, gradually diminishing later this morning into this afternoon. As such, Gale Warnings for the Lower Bay and VA Beach offshore marine zone (ANZ656) remain in effect until 7 AM. Elsewhere, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect until 1pm this afternoon (although they may be able to be canceled earlier). Winds briefly diminish this afternoon before becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening through tonight. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will be needed for this surge, but will refrain from extending current SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) right now due to the improved conditions this afternoon. Winds become W Wednesday generally 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt possible across the rivers due to a well mixed environment and strong winds over the land Wednesday afternoon.

Low pressure moves into S Quebec into New England Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, pushing a strong cold front over the local waters. As such, winds become NW/NNW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt (highest across the N coastal waters) Wednesday evening/night behind the front. Winds diminish late Thu morning into early Thu afternoon as progressive high pressure briefly moves in. The reprieve in winds lasts until Fri afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement that a cutoff low moves into the SE and off the SE coast Fri into this weekend with low pressure forming within it and high pressure to the NE Fri and then NW later in the weekend. The exact track of the low will have direct impacts on the forecast and how much wind and rain is to be expected. However, as of now, confidence is increasing that the pressure gradient alone will likely be strong enough for high-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to Gale conditions to develop this weekend. As of now, the strongest winds appear to be Sat night (but this could change). Will continue to monitor this weekend for the potential of Gale conditions.

Waves and seas were 4-5 ft and 4-6 ft this morning. Waves/seas subside to 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively later this afternoon. A period of elevated waves/seas is looking increasingly likely this weekend into early next week due to prolonged E/SE and then N flow. High Surf Advisories and seas 8-10 ft (potentially larger) are possible.

Fire Weather
As of 340am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages:

1. Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday.

2. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility for any fires to burn out of control.

The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we've issued an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties today, with the exception of the MD Beaches (Ocean City, MD area) and N OBX (E Currituck County, ND). Winds are expected to be stronger on Wednesday, and as temperatures warm up, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, a Fire Wx Watch continues for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. This will be collaborated further with surrounding offices and state forestry agencies later this morning. Any jurisdictions not in a Fire Wx Watch Wednesday will likely see another IFD statement owing to the gusty winds and warmer conditions.

NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11am EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-633-635>638-650-652-654-658. Gale Warning until 7am EDT this morning for ANZ632-634-656.