Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 649am EDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Heat Advisory has been issued for Southeast VA and Northeast NC. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid today, then strong to severe storm chances increase this evening. Showers and storm continue overnight and through much of tomorrow. 2) In light of the breezy and hot conditions, a late-season Increased Fire Danger Statement has been added for most of our NC counties for tomorrow. As of 300am EDT Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid today, then strong to severe storm chances increase this evening. Showers and storm continue overnight and through much of tomorrow. Heating up today as SW flow increases ahead of a cold front. Breezy conditions expected today with wind gusts around 30mph. Highs will generally be in the upper 90s with the hottest temps in the southeast. Heat indices approaching 105F have prompted the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Hampton Roads and the interior southeast as far west as Greensville County. Outside of the advisory, heat indices will be 97-102. Storm chances increase during the late afternoon and evening hours. Based on the 00z suite of CAMs, storms during the daylight hours will likely be kept to the N/NW counties- primarily from Cumberland northeast to Dorchester MD. Probability of Precipitation are less than 40% through 00z. Storms increase in coverage and spread to the remainder of the FA overnight. There is the potential for storms to be strong to severe during the evening hours. Hot and humid conditions will mean plenty of instability during the day (up to ~1800 J/kg mid afternoon). The later start time, however, will mean waning instability as storms get going. The HREF depicts quickly dropping mean MLCAPE values with values around 1100 at 8pm, then down to 500 J/kg by 10. This means the window for severe will be roughly 5-9pm. Primary hazard is still damaging wind gusts as evidenced by DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg. The Slight Risk of severe weather from Storm Prediction Center still goes down to the NC border, but the best chance is probably north of US-460. Starting to see some consensus in the global models with how this system evolves going into Friday. It appears all the models are on board with developing a surface low from the remnant tropical wave from the gulf, though to varying degrees of strength. Therefore, there is higher confidence in lingering moisture for much of Friday. Showers and storms should continue through at least mid day, lingering the longest in the SE as the surface low moves out to sea. If the low is a bit stronger like the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) still suggests, this could mean moderate to heavy rain, at least across southern counties. Rain clears out from NW to SE later in the day Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2...In light of the breezy and hot conditions, a late-season Increased Fire Danger Statement has been added for most of our NC counties for tomorrow. A tightening pressure gradient and downslope W-SW flow will result in dry, breezy conditions on Thursday. After collaboration with neighboring offices and NCFS fire officials, concern for 20-30 mph gusts and hot temperatures, despite marginal RH values (~35-40%), justifies the IFD statement. This is especially true given the ongoing drought conditions and very dry fine fuels across the area. Marine As of 300am EDT Thursday... Key Message: - Elevated SW winds continue today into tonight, with Small Craft Advisories remaining in effect for all waters. - A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore 20-60nm zone south of the VA/NC border this afternoon into tonight. Early this morning, a warm front is lifting north over the waters leading to winds become SW and increasing. Winds are currently averaging 10 to 15 knots with locally higher gusts. Seas are running 2 to 3 feet, whiles waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 to 2 feet. Winds will rapidly increase as we approach sunrise as low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes, creating a strong gradient with high pressure located off the SE coast. In addition, forecast soundings also show very deep mixing across the region later this morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds will average 15 to 25 knots with gusts pf 25 to 30 knots. The highest gusts will likely occur near shore, including the lower James River and southern Ches Bay. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters and a Gale Warning remains in effect for the far southern 20-60nm offshore zone off the NC coast. Still thinking the highest gusts will be confined to the SE third of the zone. Waves in the bay increase to 2-3 ft with seas 4-6 ft nearshore and 5-8 ft well offshore. Will need to watch the potential for strong to severe storms, mainly this evening into the overnight hours. Locally gusty winds along with increased waves/seas can be expected in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. The surface front finally drops southward during the day on Friday with winds becoming N and NW 5-10 kt behind the boundary. Much improved marine conditions are expected this weekend as high pressure moves into the area. The next system approaches the region early next week with increasing SW winds. Climate As of 145pm EDT Wednesday... Record Highs for tomorrow 6/18 Record High/Year Location 6/18 -------- ---- Richmond 100 (1970) Norfolk 99 (1944) Salisbury 98 (2014) Eliz. City 100 (2011) NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA... Heat Advisory from 11am this morning to 8pm EDT this evening for VAZ087>090-092-097-098-523>525-528>531. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 1am EDT Friday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Friday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ633-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EDT Friday for ANZ639. Gale Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 1am EDT Friday for ANZ688. |
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