Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| Today...Ne Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 25 To 30 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Showers. |
| Tonight...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...Se Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Fri...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 139pm EDT Tuesday Oct 28 2025 Synopsis Low pressure deepens and tracks northeast off the Southeast US coast today into tonight bringing breezy conditions and occasional rain. Another low pressure system moves through the area Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds south of the area Friday into the weekend. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 330am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cloudy today with rain across southern VA and northeast NC as low pressure tracks northeast off the Carolina coast. - NE winds will gust 35 to 45+ mph along the coast today. GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough centered over eastern KY/TN, with low pressure developing off the GA/SC coast. Meanwhile, 1032mb high pressure is centered over QB and ridging southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. A large area of steady rain has developed across eastern NC and southern VA to the N of the low off the coast, with a sharp cut-off on the northern edge due to dry air associated with the high to the N. Rainfall amounts through early this morning have ranged from 0.5-0.75" across interior NE NC and far s-central VA, with close to 1.0" in vicinity of Kerr Lake and Lake Gaston. Temperatures early this morning are in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A NE wind is increasing, and is gusting to 35-40 mph along the coasts of SE VA and NE NC. Low pressure tracks NE off the Carolina coast today. A belt of deeper moisture will linger over southern VA and eastern NC today. Given this, steady light to occasionally moderate rain will continue. However, it will struggle to push northward as high pressure remains anchored to our N. Additional rainfall today (which will be quite beneficial) will average 0.4-0.6" across southern VA and NE NC resulting in totals of 1.0-1.5". A corridor from Farmville, to the City of Richmond, to Accomack Co. will average 0.1-0.2", with little to no measurable N of this corridor. A breezy to windy NE wind is expected, with gusts to 40-50 mph along the VA/NE NC coasts where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Other coastal locations should experience 30-40 mph NE wind gusts, with 20-30 mph inland. High temperatures will be in the lower/mid 50s inland, with upper 50s/around 60F toward the coast. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Thursday As of 330am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Additional rain and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night as another strong system approaches. - Rain chances linger through the first half of Thursday before beginning to dry out during the afternoon/evening. A rather complex weather pattern evolves tonight through Thursday. The initial low will track NE well off the coast tonight. Meanwhile, the high will remain nearly stationary over QB and even ridge southward across the Piedmont in the wake of the low moving offshore. Likely Probability of Precipitation for light rain continue along the coast this evening, with generally chance Probability of Precipitation overnight for areas of light rain and drizzle. Additional Quantitative Precipitation Forecast tonight is around 0.15" or less. Cloudy with low temperatures in the mid/upper 40s inland and lower 50s toward the coast. A NE wind will persist, but the pressure gradient will relax to some extent, so not quite as windy along the coast. Another upper low dives across the Mid-South Wednesday. High pressure weakens and shifts SE into New England and Atlantic Canada, but still remains 1026-1028mb. A residual stationary boundary will remain S of the local area, so NE flow will continue to prevail. This will result in cloudy and cool conditions with highs in the lower/mid 50s inland, around 60F toward the coast, and locally in the lower/mid 60s along the NE NC coast. Probability of Precipitation will mainly be 30-50% through the day, with likely Probability of Precipitation across the Piedmont by later in the afternoon as a steady light rain potentially develops. The upper low begins to lift NE and become an open wave Wednesday night. Surface low pressure develops in advance of this wave with the residual stationary boundary lifting N as a warm front. Rain continues across western portions of the area and shifts E toward early Thursday morning. Low pressure quickly tracks NNE with a cold front pushing across the area Thursday afternoon. Rain will become more showery, and a few rumbles of thunder are possible. 50th percentile Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday from the 28/00z EPS/GEFS is mainly 0.75-1.5" across the northern tier of the area, with 0.5-0.75" for southern VA, and ~0.5" for NE NC. There is a little more spread in 90th percentile with 1.5-2.0" from the EPS and 2.0-2.5" from the GEFS. Overall, the flood threat is quite low with this system. The 10th percentile form both ensemble systems during this 24hr period is around 0.6-0.8" across the northern tier of the area, so regardless most of the area should receive beneficial rainfall during the next 3 days. Temperatures should be steady Wednesday night and then rise to highs in the lower 60s to near 70F Thursday. The wind should become SE to S ahead of the cold front and then shift to W with gusts to 20-25 mph as the cold front moves through Thursday afternoon. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday As of 330am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Drying out with below average temperatures Friday into the weekend. By Thursday night, all of the main models/ensembles have the system lifting well north of the local area, with drying conditions. Dry weather should return for Friday (Halloween) with high pressure building south of the area. It does remain breezy however, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph (out of the W) possible. Temperatures on Friday remain below average with highs in the lower 60s. Remaining dry and cool into Saturday and Sunday with below average temperatures continuing. There could be a frost potential for portions of the area where the growing season is still in effect each night Friday night through Sunday night. Another front may try to move through the area on Sunday or Sunday night, but there still remains significant disagreement in regards to timing and strength. Marine As of 345am EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remain in effect today into tonight across most of the local waters due to strong NE winds gusting to 35-45 kt. - A High Surf Advisory remains in effect into Wednesday evening given dangerous nearshore seas of 8-12 ft. Offshore seas could build to 10- 14 ft. - Low pressure and a cold front impact the area late in the week, bringing continued unsettled conditions. Latest surface analysis depicted an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline with a strong ~1035mb area of high pressure across southern Quebec. The pressure gradient between these two features continues to tighten this morning, allowing for increasing NE winds across the local waters. Winds early this morning were 20- 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the northern waters and 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the southern waters. NE winds are expected to increase to 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40-45 kt across the Ches Bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters today into tonight (strongest winds across the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound). Wind probs for sustained 34 kt winds were 30-35% across the mouth of the bay, 35-50% across the Currituck Sound, 50-70% across the VA coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light, and 70-85% across the NC coastal waters with nearly 100% probs for 34 kt gusts across the coastal waters and Currituck Sound. Notably, the probs for 43 kt gusts were 40-65% across the southern coastal waters with a small area of 20-35% probs for 48 kt gusts across the southeastern portion of the NC coastal waters. As such, Gale Warnings remain in effect across the Ches Bay, Lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters from today through tonight. Given wind probs for 34 kt gusts of 50-60% across the upper bay, have expanded the Gale Warning to include all of the Ches Bay. Additionally, a few Storm- force wind gusts cannot be ruled out across mainly the NC coastal waters, however, confidence is too low to upgrade from the Gale Warning. The only zones where conditions look to remain predominantly sub- Gale are in the upper rivers. Unsettled marine conditions continue through late week as a secondary trough approaches from the west by Wednesday, allowing another surface low to track NE across the Mid Atlantic region on Thu. NE winds gradually diminish to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Wed, becoming E Wednesday night, then becoming SE Thu behind a warm front lifting north. Winds become SW/W behind the associated cold front of the aforementioned low Thu night into Fri. While uncertainty remains low in the exact wind speeds, the dry air moving behind the deepening low should result in another period of strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to low- end Gale conditions by late week. In between both stronger surges, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely persist. Conditions improve significantly by the weekend with sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected (outside of any lingering elevated seas Sat). Confidence is low in the forecast beyond next weekend, however, unsettled conditions continue through midweek with the potential for additional SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. Given the increasing winds, waves and seas will continue to build today. Waves of 4-6 ft are possible across the middle and upper bay with 6-8 ft waves (7-9 ft across the mouth of the bay) possible across the lower bay. Meanwhile, seas build to 9-12 ft across the northern coastal waters and 11-14 ft across the southern coastal waters (highest across the NC coastal waters). As such, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect across all of the Atlantic coastline today through Wed. Seas will be slow to subside with High Surf Advisory conditions potentially lingering into Thu morning across the MD beaches. Seas may drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria Fri night into Sat. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 530am EDT Tuesday... An increasing NE wind today will result in tidal anomalies rising to 1.5-2.5 ft above normal across the Ches Bay, tidal rivers, and Atlantic Ocean. Tides will remain elevated through mid week before they decrease by late week as winds become westerly. As such, widespread minor flooding remains in the forecast along the VA/NC Atlantic coast into the southern and western shore of the Chesapeake Bay, including along the tidal James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac for this afternoon/evening's high tide. Moderate coastal flooding is expected at Jamestown and Smithfield (given the favorable NE wind direction coinciding with the highest tidal anomalies later this afternoon) where Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect. Lynnhaven may briefly reach moderate flood stage, however, confidence was too low to expand the Coastal Flood Warning. Otherwise, Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for most nearshore areas with a Coastal Flood Statement across Worcester and no headlines for the bay side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore (at this time). The main change to the forecast was to extend the Coastal Flood Advisories through the late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning high tide given the potential for several rounds of minor flooding. The higher tidal anomalies begin to shift into the upper bay by the middle-later portions of the week, with increasing confidence in southerly flow by Thursday. This would likely yield moderate flooding at most gauges north of Windmill Point, which could continue into Friday for the Bay-side of the Lower MD Eastern Shore as the wind becomes westerly behind a cold front. Coastal Flood Watches will likely be needed later today or tonight, however, given that the higher confidence high tide on Thu morning was beyond the next 48 hours, have opted to hold off on any watches for this forecast cycle. Additionally, Ocean City has a higher chance at reaching minor flood stage with the Wednesday afternoon high tide. If model guidance continues to show this, a Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed for Worcester. Of note, we are entering a window of relatively lower astronomical tides, so the tidal flooding threat is not quite as high as it could be with strong NE flow in October. For example, the predicted astronomical high tide at Sewells Point this afternoon is near 2.7 ft MLLW, so a 2.5 ft anomaly would still just be in minor flood stage (~5.3 ft MLLW). During the next King Tides in early Nov, the predicted highest astronomical high tide at Sewells Point reaches 3.54 ft MLLW on 11/6. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...High Surf Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for MDZ025. NC...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ017-102. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ102. High Surf Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for NCZ102. VA...High Surf Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ095-098>100. High Surf Advisory until 1am EDT Thursday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11am EDT Wednesday for VAZ075- 077. Coastal Flood Warning until 11pm EDT this evening for VAZ076- 078-085-086-521-522. Coastal Flood Warning until 9pm EDT this evening for VAZ081- 082-089-090-093-524. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8am EDT Thursday for VAZ083-084- 518-520-523. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Thursday for VAZ095>098- 525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100. Marine Gale Warning until 6pm EDT this evening for ANZ630. Gale Warning until 10pm EDT this evening for ANZ631. Gale Warning until 6am EDT Wednesday for ANZ632>634-638-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637. |
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