Albemarle Sound Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely. |
| Sat...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sun...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 229pm EDT Fri August 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated full discussion. No significant forecast changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional showers and storms are expected Saturday, mainly near the bay and on the eastern shore. 2) Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. As of 230pm EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms late this evening into overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flash flooding. Additional showers and storms are expected Saturday, mainly near the bay and on the eastern shore. The cold front that crossed the area last night is now stationary and has settled just to our south. A broad upper trough is over the Great Lakes and extends south over the Appalachians. A lead shortwave on the SE side of the trough is crossing the Piedmont, and is responsible for the showers and isolated storms that are tracking across western portions of the FA despite only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Scattered strong to severe storms have developed near the front from south central to southeast NC. The front is forecast to move back north tonight as a warm front and bisect the area by early Sat AM. As a result, expect numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to develop/move across southern VA and NE NC during the evening, before gradually spreading N and NE overnight. The highest precipitation chances shift to areas near the Bay and the Eastern Shore by sunrise on Saturday. Given the moisture rich airmass in place (PWs of 1.7- 2.1"), locally heavy rain is likely this evening-tonight, and a few areas could see 2-3" in a short time (mainly south of I-64). A Flood Watch was considered, but feel that the highest totals will be localized enough (and storms will be moving fast enough) for flash flooding to be isolated in nature. The 12z/21 HREF has 10% probs for 3" in 3 hours for mainly S/SE portions of the area tonight. A few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out near/south of the VA-NC border between now-9 PM, but confidence is low. The front will continue to linger over east and northeast portions of the FA Saturday as the broad upper trough axis moves over the area. In addition, a weak surface low may develop along it in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay/Lower Eastern Shore. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are likely, especially from the Peninsulas to Eastern Shore. Convection will likely initiate earlier than usual and may even be ongoing during the morning. While the saturated profile and weak surface heating (highs only in the low-mid 80s) should mitigate the severe weather potential, localized heavy rain/flooding is possible (especially near the bay and on the Eastern Shore). Similar to tonight, a few spots could see 2-3" of rain in a short time. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for eastern portions of the area on Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection returns by the middle to latter part of the week. The weak front will finally move offshore, as the main upper level trough axis shifts offshore and surface high pressure builds into the SE CONUS. The surface high will usher in a drier airmass with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s Sunday into early next week. The high is forecast to break down by Wed/Thu, with unsettled conditions and isolated-scattered aftn/evening convection returning mid to late week. Marine As of 230pm EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions expected through the weekend, outside of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Afternoon weather analysis shows NNE wind prevailing around 10kt with gusts upwards of 15kt across the waters. Seas remain low at this time with wave heigheights around 1-2 ft across the bay and 2-3ft across our nearshore zones and 3-4ft further offshore. Winds are forecasted to shift later this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts towards the area. Winds are expected to remain around 10kt with the shift and will be out of the E. In addition, the front will bring showers and thunderstorms that could pose the risk of wind gusts greater than 34kt and lightning. In terms of wave heigheights not expecting much change in them. By Saturday, southerly flow will return, then becoming SW by Saturday evening. Confidence continues to increase that a cold front will cross the waters late Sunday night allowing for northerly winds to return to our waters, These winds are forecasted to last through Monday. Low risk for rip currents is expected through the weekend and into Monday. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. Marine None. |
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