Anegada Passage Southward to 17N Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Around 5 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Tonight...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Around 5 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Thursday...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Dominant Period 14 Seconds. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 501am AST Wednesday Mar 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and gusty conditions will continue to create choppy to hazardous seas for small craft today, while also heightening wind and fire danger risks along coastal areas. * Life-threatening rip currents are possible across most local beaches today. * Wetter conditions with an increased flooding risk, as well as strengthening winds bringing hazardous seas and life- threatening surf zone conditions, are expected later this week, with conditions persisting into the weekend. .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate patches of moisture near and over most of the region with values up to around 1.40 over land. Satellite derived winds continue to report speeds of around 15 to 25 mph over our surrounding waters. Scattered showers under east-southeast steering flow reached the islands during the overnight hours, including St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra, most of the eastern third of PR, including the metropolitan area, and some sectors of south-central to southeast PR. Low temperatures were in the low to mid 70s at lower elevations of the islands and in the upper 50s to mid 60s at higher elevations of Puerto Rico. A surface high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic is tightening the local pressure gradient, which will promote breezy to windy trades today. A low pressure over the northeastern Atlantic and a another surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will push into the surface high currently over the northeastern Atlantic. As the new surface high gradually builds during the second half of the workweek, the steering flow will relax somewhat as it backs from east to east-southeasterly (today and tomorrow) to easterly on Friday and east to east-northeasterly Friday night and into the weekend (also increasing on Friday). A mid to upper level high will also persist through early Thursday, promoting more stable conditions aloft and keeping available moisture below 700mb. Breezy to windy trades will continue to bring patches of moisture to the local islands. The diurnal pattern of overnight and morning fast moving trade wind showers over windward sectors of the islands will also include afternoon showers mainly over west to west-northwest Puerto Rico today and Thursday, due to diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence and local effects. Patches of moisture with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values at 1.5 to 1.7 inches will continue to reach the region from the southeast today. By late tomorrow, a frontal boundary as well as a mid to upper level trough will approach the area, increasing moisture and instability. Available moisture will reach above 500 mb by Thursday night, this will promote vertical shower development. This will give way to a wetter pattern to end the workweek and into the weekend (long term period). This will strengthen the diurnal pattern, particularly on Friday, of advective showers and afternoon convective showers, although with the shift in steering flow, will concentrate more over the interior to western-southwestern PR. Localized flooding is more likely on Friday, particularly for windward areas of northeast PR at night and over the interior to western-southwestern PR during the day. 925mb temperatures will be at normal to above normal values for this time of the year during the rest of the workweek (except on Friday when more normal values are forecast). Long Term Saturday through Tuesday The most recent global model guidance now suggests a wetter pattern through most of the period. Combined with a persistent jet aloft, this wet pattern will result from the remnants of a frontal boundary during the weekend and pulses of moisture driven by a low-level through to the southeast early next week. These elements will sustain a dynamically favorable environment for convective development. Strengthening east-to- east- northeast winds will add to this scenario, producing breezy conditions while also enhancing trade wind showers, particularly at night. Reflecting the synoptic pattern, deep-layer moisture will peak Saturday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.8 inches. Lower PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will follow between Sunday morning and Monday morning, before another gradual increase begins Monday night. Rain chances will be highest during the weekend (50-70 percent), tapering to 40-50 percent on Monday, and back to 50-60 percent by Tuesday. Localized flooding remains a concern, particularly for windward areas of E-NE PR at night and interior to W PR by day during periods of peal moisture. As rain chances decline on Monday, the flooding risk will diminish, though isolated minor flooding remains possible. Temperatures should remain near to slightly warmer than climatological averages with no significant concerns. Given recent model variability, any shifts in moisture availability or wind flow could modify these impacts. Marine A robust surface high pressure system over the Central Atlantic will produce moderate to fresh trade winds through tonight. These strengthening winds will generate choppy and rough seas, prompting Small Craft Advisories for offshore waters and local passages through late tonight. Hazardous conditions for small craft will likely return by Friday into the weekend. Furthermore, a cold front and pre- frontal trough approaching the region will increase shower and thunderstorm activity starting Thursday. Beach Forecast Breezy trades will continue today, promoting a moderate risk of rip currents for most local beaches. Since life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone, beachgoers should exercise caution. Deteriorating surf zone conditions will likely require a high risk of rip currents over weekend, particularly for north- and east- facing beaches. For more details, please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). Fire Weather There is an elevated fire danger hazard risk today, particularly for the southwestern coastal plains of Puerto Rico. While there is a 20-30 percent probability of precipitation early this morning for the area, today's conditions will feature below-normal moisture, significantly low relative humidity, breezy winds, and gusty conditions. These factors elevate the risk for fast-moving fires, particularly in grass-dominated areas. As a result, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for these areas. Refer to RFDSJU for details. .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6am AST Thursday for AMZ711. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm AST this evening for AMZ723-733- 741. |
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