Northern US Virgin Islands and Culebra Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Around 5 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. |
| Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Numerous Showers. |
| Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Scattered Showers. |
| Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Isolated Showers. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 14 Seconds. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 453pm AST Monday Oct 14 2024 Synopsis A dry and stable weather pattern is expected to prevail across the region through the middle of the week, as the upper level through moves away from the local area. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Invest 94L) located in the central tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. The system has a medium (60%) formation chance through 7 days and could approach the area by Friday into Saturday. Residents and visitors should continue to monitor future updates regarding this system. .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday... Mainly fair weather conditions prevailed during the morning hours across the islands, with few isolated to scattered showers over the Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Afternoon convective activity was observed across the northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico. Doppler radar estimated between 1.0 to 2.0 inches from San Sebastian to Moca. In addition, a Flood Advisory was in effect for these areas. The warm to hot trend continues over the region, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the coastal and urban sectors, and in the upper 80s across the higher elevations. The Luis Munoz Marin Int. Airport in San Juan reported a maximum temperature of 92 degrees Fahrenheit in the afternoon. A dry and stable weather pattern expected to establish across the islands through mid-week. The latest precipitable water analysis(PWAT) has values between 1.10 to 1.20 inches through late Wednesday. Shower activity is anticipated to be limited. However, diurnal heating and local effects may lead to the development of few showers across the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands the forecast remains dry with very limited activity for the next couple of days. Hot conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the month, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Light to moderate winds from the east at 10 to 15 mph are expected through the rest of the period. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Invest 94L) located in the central tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. The system may encounter favorable conditions for development for the latter part of the week. There is a medium formation chance (%60) at the moment. Uncertainty remains very high as far as impacts, but users should stay tuned for further updates. Long Term Thursday through Monday... /issued 501am AST Monday Oct 14 2024/ Model guidance indicates patches of moisture on Thursday, with precipitable water (PWAT) values only locally reaching 2 inches. A typical weather pattern is forecast for Thursday, including passing overnight and early morning showers steered by easterly winds along parts of the east coastal sections of the islands with afternoon convection expected but mainly focused across the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. High heat indices will continue. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors a well defined area of low pressure several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Designated as Invest 94L, the NHC forecasts that environmental conditions could become more favorable during the start of the long term period. This system currently has a 40 percent formation chance through 7 days. GFS (Global Forecast System) model guidance has the system nearing the islands on Friday, while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has the system more north of the local islands. It is still to early to know any specific impacts, if any, that this system could bring. An increase in overall moisture is still forecast even if the system doesn't form, as a broad moisture field engulfs the region, with PWAT (Precipitable Water) values increasing to above 2 inches possibly through the end of the forecast period. With the forecast to end the workweek and to start the weekend more closely linked to the future of Invest 94L, uncertainty remains. However, with increased moisture and overall more unstable conditions, the chance for overnight and afternoon convection Friday through Saturday will increase along with the potential for localized flooding impacts in urban areas, on roads, and along some rivers and small streams across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. More typical weather conditions, albeit with more moisture are forecast by next week under light to moderate east to southeast winds. For more information regarding Invest 94L, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT & TWOSAT) issued by the NHC. Marine Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will prevail into mid-week as a weak surface high pressure pattern will continue northeast of the region. Slowly decaying long-period northerly swells generated by distant storms will continue to affect to the local Atlantic waters and passages through at least tonight. Beach Forecast There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the eastern, northern and western Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Low risk elsewhere. For more details, please refer to the latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. |
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