Marine Weather Net

Northern US Virgin Islands and Culebra Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ715 Forecast Issued: 929 AM AST Wed Mar 08 2023

Rest Of Today...West Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Around 5 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Tonight...West Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.
Thursday...Northwest Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Numerous Showers.
Thursday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Scattered Showers.
Friday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 12 Seconds. Isolated Showers.
Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Dominant Period 14 Seconds.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
416am AST Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure extending across the southwest, along with an area of low pressure to the north at about 600 miles, will result in light to moderate northerly winds persisting until the end of the week and into the weekend. Also this weather scenario will limit shower activity across the local region until Saturday. On Saturday, a cold front now located over the eastern U.S. and extending south to Central America will move ESE and over the local region by Saturday. This weather feature will increase the shower coverage late Saturday into early Sunday.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday... Throughout the overnight hours, predominantly fair weather conditions persisted, marked by clear skies and mainly shower free conditions. The Doppler radar only showed a few showers over the Caribbean waters. This prevailing pattern is expected to persist into the afternoon, with a slight potential for isolated showers to develop over the southern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

The current weather pattern will persist until Saturday, Characterized by limited shower activity and below normal temperatures. Northerly winds and mostly clear skies will dominate the region during this period. However, this weather scenario is anticipated to shift as a cold front is forecast to move across the area late Saturday. While models indicate that the moisture associated to the cold front will swiftly move eastward, there is a likelihood of increase showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Long Term
Sunday through Wednesday... The inherited forecast remains unchanged. The latest model guidance continues to suggest that residual moisture associated with the passage of the cold front will remain over the area through the end of the weekend. From Sunday into Monday, a brief dry air mass will filter across the region, allowing the Precipitable Water (PW) values to drop from 1.60 to around an inch. This means that the PW content will go from above-normal climatological levels to around normal to slightly below-normal climatological levels for this time of the year. On Sunday, the surface high pressure, now located over the state of Mississippi, just behind the aforementioned cold front, will introduce northeasterly light to moderate winds across the area. Under this wind pattern, occasional trade wind showers cannot be ruled out of the forecast. By the beginning of the workweek, the cold front will stall close to the region, allowing the northeasterly trades to bring back additional patches of moisture associated with the frontal system into the area. At this time, the model suggests that the PW values will stay around an inch/slightly below normal climatological levels.

A change in weather conditions will occur on Wednesday as a drier airmass filters across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. From midweek onwards, expect the wind to shift and become easterly, allowing stable and typical weather conditions to prevail across the islands.

Marine
A surface high pressure ridge extending across the southwest Atlantic and a distant area of low pressure north of the region will promote light to moderate northerly winds through the end of the week into the weekend. A large northerly swell generated by the before mentioned low pressure will continue to affect the local Atlantic waters including all local passages. This swell event already peak and now is slowly decreasing but dangerous and hazardous marine conditions will prevail through the weekend. Another pulse of energy in the form of swells will affect the same areas early Sunday morning.

Beach Forecast

On Wednesday, multiple search and rescue operations were conducted along the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to rough seas and strong rip currents. There were reports of five search and rescue incidents, including one drowning at Montones beach in Isabela and an ongoing search for a person at La Pared beach in Luquillo. Despite the northerly swell having already peaked, hazardous and dangerous beach conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend, with another swell event expected to reach our local coast on Sunday.

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.

High Surf Advisory until 6pm AST this evening for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for PRZ011>013.

High Surf Advisory until 6am AST early this morning for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for VIZ001-002.

High Surf Advisory until 6am AST early this morning for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm AST this evening for AMZ711-712- 716-741-742-745.