Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUNDAY

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ270 Forecast Issued: 327 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.
Sunday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Monday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 Feet.
Tuesday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tuesday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet Building To 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southwest Wind Around 20 Knots Shifting Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Thursday...Northwest Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet Building To 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northwest Wind 20 To 25 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
327 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Weak to moderate onshore flow tonight through Sunday night. A weak upper level disturbance will contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Sunday morning. Drier Sunday afternoon as the upper disturbance moves east. Generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Monday and Tuesday, before becoming more moderate Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds may increase to moderate to strong levels in the wake of the front on Wednesday leading to several hours of advisory conditions over the coastal waters. An approaching upper level disturbance and greater moisture will contribute to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The frontal boundary will move across the waters Wednesday morning triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. Drier conditions and weak to moderate offshore flow are expected after the frontal passage.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
658pm CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

/Issued 405pm CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

Short Term - Tonight Through Sunday Night
Convection today associated with an upper level disturbance. Deterministic runs predict the associated 700-300 mb Q-vector convergence/left exit region of a 250-mb jet streak offshore overnight, with Q-vector divergence/left entrance region of the 250-mb jet streak to enter the CWA Sunday as the system continues to move slowly eastward. Expect that combination of weak upper forcing and sufficient moisture to contribute to isolated/ scattered convection near the coast and offshore tonight/early Sunday morning. Although PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are expected to be near or slightly above normal Sunday (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF), the increasing subsidence should preclude convection over the CWA Sunday afternoon. Thermodynamic profile overnight/early Sunday morning conducive to patchy/areas of fog, mainly over the interior Coastal Bend. Continue to expect minor coastal flooding during the times of high tide based on persistence/P-ETSS output.

Long Term - Monday through Saturday
High pressure across the region on Monday will result in very warm temperatures and generally dry conditions. Models bring a mid/upper low from the southwest to northeast across the region Tuesday. Moisture is forecast to increase with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) up to 1.5 inches across the west to 2.3 inches along the coast. The moisture, upper low, increasing diffluence aloft and an unstable airmass will lead to scattered convection Tuesday with the better chance across the east where the deeper moisture and best instability will be located. Models continue to show a cold front moving across S TX late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to S TX. Much drier and cooler air will filter across S TX through the day Wednesday with rain chances and clouds decreasing from west to east. The remainder of the week and into Saturday are expected to be dry, mostly clear and cooler, especially at night.

Behind the cold front on Wednesday through Thursday, breezy to windy northwest winds are expected to develop. There could be a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns both afternoons as RH values drop to 10-20 percent across the west and 20-40 percent across the east. Fire weather concerns are not anticipated Friday as winds become lighter.

PETSS continues to show tide levels at BoB Hall Pier reaching or exceeding 2ft MSL during times of high tide through the middle of next week. This will lead to minor coastal flooding each day around high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed from Baffin Bay to Port OConnor through next week.

Marine

Isolated/scattered convection overnight owing to a weak upper level disturbance. The chance for precipitation will decrease from west to east Sunday owing to increasing subsidence as the upper system moves east. Generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Monday and Tuesday, before becoming more moderate Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds may increase to moderate to strong levels in the wake of the front on Wednesday leading to advisory conditions over the coastal waters. An approaching upper level disturbance and greater moisture will contribute to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. The frontal boundary will move across the waters Wednesday morning triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. Drier conditions and weak to moderate offshore flow are expected after the frontal passage.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.