Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ270 Forecast Issued: 356 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

Today...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Tonight...South Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thursday...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Southwest After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...West Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Sunday Night...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
356 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Weak onshore flow will persist through this morning along with dense fog across the bays and nearshore waters. The fog is expected to lift by mid to late morning. A generally weak onshore flow will continue tonight into Thursday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday ahead of a cold front. Some storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. Moderate northeast winds develop Thursday night and Friday following the cold front, before this front returns north as a warm front on Saturday. Ample moisture near the front will fuel daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front sweeps offshore on Sunday with additional thunderstorm chances. Expect much drier, yet weak to moderate offshore flow behind Sunday's cold front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617am CDT Wednesday April 8 2020

Short Term - Today Through Thursday
This morning's visibilities have been fluctuating more than yesterday. This is likely due to slightly stronger winds. Most locations are experiencing dense fog generally east of Highway 16. The fog is expected to lift by mid morning.

An embedded short wave in the southwest flow aloft may bring a few sprinkles to S TX this morning, then an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. However, there is a capping inversion that should hinder convective development and moisture looks better in the upper levels. Thus, any convection that would develop would be elevated. The probability is very low across much of S TX, but did go with a 20 Probability of Precipitation across the far western CWA this afternoon. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy much of the day along with well above normal temperatures.

The main issue tonight will be the potential for fog. Per the NAM, dense fog could develop once again across the eastern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and muggy conditions are expected.

Thursday is looking very active with the possibility of strong to severe weather. The Storms Prediction Center has S TX in a slight risk of severe weather for Thu. The combination of another short wave, deeper moisture, very unstable environment with little to no CIN, low level convergence ahead and along a cold front moving into the area by Thu afternoon, and diffluent flow aloft, all point to strong/severe storms.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)... Thursday evening looks to be potentially active over much of South Texas as a slow moving cold front drifts south into a very unstable and weakly capped air mass. Various CAMs and core models show good agreement in scattered to numerous storms near the front by Thu evening before activity wanes after midnight. Until then, prospects for severe storms are improving especially with favorable deep layer shear, although storm motions parallel to the cold front may tend to favor more multicellular modes than supercells. Convective outflows could shove the cold front farther south Thu night than models currently show, yet this boundary should retreat sometime on Friday ahead of improving warm air advection preceding an upper low in stronger SW flow. Friday's Probability of Precipitation was massaged to show higher chances across our western zones near the surge of isentropic ascent, but soundings region wide reveal elevated CAPE supportive of at least isolated storms.

The next focused round of deep convection could impact South Texas as soon as Friday night if the GFS is correct, but more likely sometime on Saturday per WPC's preference for the slower upper low of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and UKMET. Robust height falls, a strong upper jet, and a Pacific cold front impinging on rich PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of nearly 2 inches could easily set the stage for more severe storms. However, even the non-GFS models veer our 850 mb winds southwesterly which could bolster capping, so Probability of Precipitation are being kept below the wetter MOS guidance for now over all but the Crossroads. Once the upper trough axis departs late in the weekend, much drier westerly flow ensues ahead of a Canadian front sometime early next week with below normal temps. Will keep NBM's conservative temps on track for now, but later forecasts may need to drop these much lower if confidence in this cold front's timing and strength improve.

Lastly, ETSS data continue to show improving chances for minor coastal flooding during high tides from Thursday through Saturday, with Friday and Saturday looking more favorable given improved onshore flow.

Marine Discussion
Weak onshore flow will persist through this morning along with dense fog across the bays and nearshore waters. The fog is expected to lift by mid to late morning. A generally weak onshore flow will continue tonight into Thursday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday ahead of a cold front. Some storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

Moderate northeast winds develop Thursday night and Friday following the cold front, before this front returns north as a warm front late Friday into Saturday. Ample moisture near the front will fuel daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front sweeps offshore later in the weekend with additional thunderstorm chances. Expect much drier, yet weak to moderate offshore flow behind Sunday's cold front. Another cold front by early next week could generate SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions ahead of strong northeast flow.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CDT this morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands... Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg... Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio... Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells... Kleberg Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10am CDT this morning For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.