Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ270 Forecast Issued: 410 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
Today...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Thursday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 10 Feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 10 Feet.
Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Friday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally Seas Around 5 Feet.
Saturday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally Seas Around 5 Feet.
Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Sunday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Feet.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
438am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 429am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Expect the CWA (County Warning Area) to remain under the influence of an upper level ridge during the period (ECMWF/GFS/NAM deterministic runs), along with dry conditions (PWAT (Precipitable Water) values below normal per NAM/GFS (Global Forecast System) deterministic runs). Near normal maximum daytime temperatures expected today/Thursday, with below normal minimum nighttime temperatures. The MSLP gradient, in response to higher surface pressure over southern TX/northwest Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure associated with Hurricane Ian, is expected to result in moderate northeast/north flow over the coastal waters. Long period swell is expected to enter the coastal waters during the period (WaveWatch) and combine with Ekman forcing from persistent northeast/north flow, to result in minor coastal flooding near the times of high tide today through Thursday. The local expert system suggest a moderate risk of rip currents today and tonight. Based on the significant increase in long period swell periods and heights (WaveWatch), anticipate a high risk of rip currents south of Port Aransas Thursday.

Long Term
(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 429am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Key Messages:

-Minor to moderate coastal flooding during times of high tide this week

-Increased risk of rip currents this week

Coastal hazards remain the main topic for the long-term forecast period. Despite Hurricane Ian's distance from the S TX coast, effects from the storm will still be felt along the coast through the week as long-period swells and wave heigheights create an increased risk for rip-currents and coastal flooding. Swell periods up to around 12 seconds combined with wave heigheights in excess of 7 feet will lead to significant wave run up. Water is anticipated to reach the dunes, and beach access roads may become inundated. Wave periods and heigheights will decrease going into the weekend; however, hazards may linger. P-ETSS guidance continues to suggest tide levels reaching to around or above 2 feet MSL (Coastal Flood Advisory levels). Be sure to monitor the latest forecast and conditions along the coast before heading out to the beach!

Aside from the coastal hazards, a dry week can be expected as the ridge currently in place over the state remains sandwiched between Hurricane Ian over the southeastern states and a low pressure system over the Pacific NW. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the forecast period, with lows dropping into the upper 50s and 60s inland to near 70 along the coast.

Moisture increases near the end of the period as models hint at remnants of a Pacific tropical system moving across Mexico and towards south Texas. With it being day 8, did not introduce Probability of Precipitation into the forecast as models tell significantly different stories with regards to how much moisture will be introduced to the region and when.

Marine
Issued at 429am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022

Small Craft Advisory conditions expected today through Thursday over the offshore coastal waters, owing to 20kt wind and/or 7-8ft seas. Dry conditions will prevail through early next week. Moderate northeast flow will become weak to moderate Saturday then weak by Sunday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am CDT Friday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ442-443.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 7pm CDT Thursday for GMZ270-275.