Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet, Occasionally Seas Around 5 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds Around 10 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally Seas Around 5 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1259pm CDT Wednesday July 6 2022
/Issued 625am CDT Wednesday July 6 2022/
VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals with the exception of ALI where very localized fog is developing. Low level clouds continue to stream inland this morning so opted to maintain a TEMPO for MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings across most sites through 14Z. Any ceilings that do develop will clear out by mid morning with VFR conditions persisting through the remainder of this TAF cycle. Southeasterly winds will strengthen through the day with gusts from 20-25 knots possible through early this evening.
/Issued 330am CDT Wednesday July 6 2022/
Short Term - Today Through Thursday
A few streamer showers can be seen over the waters early this morning as a low level convergence axis sets up along the coast. This activity will wane by the mid morning hours. Otherwise, another hot day will unfold across South Texas as upper level ridging remains in control. Highs today will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. Went ahead with a Heat Advisory for our southern counties and the Brush Country as heat index values top 110 degrees for a few hours this afternoon.
The ridge axis begins to shift to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday as an inverted trough drifts around the southern periphery of the ridge. This will open a window on Thursday for some low-end precipitation chances. As of right now, the greatest forcing looks to remain to our north which will limit our rain chances. With that said, expect some isolated activity over the waters late tonight into Thursday morning as a low level convergence axis returns along the coast. Additional activity may be possible Thursday afternoon if we are able to overcome the cap. Let's hope the sea breeze provides enough of a nudge to help us produce some showers/storms across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, temperatures on Thursday look similar to today with another Heat Advisory possible.
Long Term - Thursday Night through Tuesday
Overall weather pattern will remain mostly unchanged with hot and humid conditions and no significant rainfall continuing through the weekend and into next week.
A mid/upper level ridge of high pressure across the region will remain in control of S TX weather resulting in drier mid/upper levels through the period. Models do indicate some precipitation over the open gulf waters at times through the weekend and into next week and across Central TX north of the CWA Sunday through Tuesday in response to a couple of weak embedded short waves. However, moisture across S TX will remain limited along with a capping inversion which will inhibit convective development. Can not rule out a rogue shower or two, thus did include silent 5-10 Probability of Precipitation across areas where this might be possible.
The high pressure aloft will also result in well above normal temperatures with max heat indices ranging from 105 to 111 across much of S TX and a few locations possibly up to 114 degrees. Heat Advisory conditions will be possible each afternoon through the weekend and into next week for most of S TX. The islands will likely see afternoon heat indices of 100 to 108.
Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue over the next couple of days. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible late tonight into Thursday morning. Brief periods of moderate onshore flow will be possible, but generally a weak to moderate south to southeast flow can be expected Friday through Sunday along with no significant rain chances.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Heat Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening For the following zones: Coastal Aransas...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces... Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg Islands...La Salle... McMullen...Nueces Islands...Webb.