Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting East In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...East Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting Southeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
| Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
349 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021
High pressure has shifted to the northeast with winds becoming weak out of the east-southeast. Weak onshore flow will continue through Wednesday, with fluctuations between northeasterly and southeasterly winds Thursday through Friday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through Saturday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430pm CDT Monday Oct 18 2021
Short Term - Tonight Through Tuesday Night
The surface high has moved off to the northeast and winds have become more easterly this afternoon, with an east-southeast wind expected for the duration of the short-term period. These winds will usher in warmer and more humid air which will lead to more muggy conditions through Tuesday night (hate to be the bearer of bad news). Expect temperatures tonight to be warmer than what has been observed the last couple of nights, with lows in the upper 60s along the coast and upper 50s to mid 60s inland.
The increase in moisture brought in by the aforementioned east- southeasterly winds will subsequently lead to an increase in cloud cover Tuesday into Tuesday night. Patchy fog may develop in portions of the Coastal Plains early Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s across the area with lows dropping into the 60s to near 70.
P-ETSS guidance indicates tide levels reaching to just above 2.0 ft MSL overnight Tuesday night during high tide, which would typically meet the criteria for minor coastal flooding; however, with onshore winds on the weak side and wave periods remaining well below 8s, confidence on coastal flood potential is low.
Long Term - Wednesday through Monday
A west to southwest upper flow aloft combined with a series of embedded short waves will lead to mainly mid/upper level clouds. Even though the moisture will be on the increase through the week, it will remain limited with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) at or below 1.5 inches for Wed/Thu, which is not sufficient for convection. Models have been showing a cold front move through Central Texas and approach South Texas, but stalls the front just north with little to no affect on S TX.
A deeper southeasterly flow in the lower levels by Friday will increase the moisture slightly with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.6 inches which may be sufficient for early morning streamer showers along the coast. This trend continues into Saturday with isolated convection remaining mainly over the gulf waters. By Sunday, the isolated convection is forecast to move farther inland due to slightly deeper moisture combined with a stronger short wave.
A gradual warming trend is expected through the week with temps near to slightly above normal by the weekend.
The PETSS forecasts tide to reach 2ft MSL at Bob Hall Pier during high tide through Thursday. However, winds will be light to moderate out of the southeast Wednesday and light and variable late in the week. Swell periods are also forecast to be low. Thus, am not confident there will be minor coastal flooding, but can not rule it out if winds or swells are higher than expected.
High pressure has shifted to the northeast with winds becoming weak out of the east-southeast. A generally weak northeast to east flow can be expected tonight through Monday, becoming weak to moderate from the southeast Monday night.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories