Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ250 Forecast Issued: 253 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021

Tonight...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Thursday...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Thursday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Friday...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Friday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Sunday...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Monday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
253 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

Northeasterly flow has steadily weakened throughout the day. A weak to moderate east-northeasterly flow will continue overnight and gradually increase to more moderate levels by tomorrow afternoon before subsiding during the evening hours. A weak to moderate easterly flow Friday will become moderate southeasterly Friday night. The moderate onshore flow will continue Saturday and increase to moderate to strong over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure deepens over the southern plains. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible over the Gulf waters Saturday night to Sunday night. Onshore flow will diminish to moderate levels for Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
606pm CDT Wednesday May 5 2021

Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday Night
A quiet day has been unfolding in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Temperatures have warmed into the low to to mid 80s under clear skies. We will add on a few degrees this afternoon with temps topping out around 90 degrees across the Brush Country. Mid to upper level ridging will shift into the region with high pressure taking control at the surface. Recent model soundings are hinting at a shallow layer of moisture settling in across the Coastal Plains late tonight beneath much drier air aloft. Although confidence is not high, we may see some patchy fog develop from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads. SREF Probabilities are also beginning hint at fog development. Otherwise, temps will fall into the low to mid 60s tonight. Tomorrow looks to be a bit warmer than today with highs reaching the mid 90s across the Brush Country and mid 80s along the coast.

Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
Weak surface ridge axis along the coast early Friday morning will move shift to the east during the day with winds becoming east to southeast over the area. The upper level ridge axis from northern Mexico into the Rockies Friday will move east into the plains and south Texas Saturday. A weak short wave trough will move out of the Rockies into the central high plains Saturday with an area of low pressure deepening over the Texas panhandle. Winds will become breezy over the Coastal Bend Saturday. There could be a few isolated streamer showers over the coastal plains Saturday, but chance is low and will keep Probability of Precipitation at 10 percent.

The short wave trough moves east-northeast to the mid-Mississippi River valley Sunday while the next upper level trough organizes over the Rockies. With low pressure over the southern plains, expect breezy conditions will continue for the Coastal Bend Sunday. Medium range model forecast begin to diverge by Sunday with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) pushing a frontal boundary into south-central Texas. GFS/CAN/ICON keep the boundary closer to the Red River where convection will likely develop Sunday. Models differ in handling amplitude of the upper trough over the Rockies Monday with GFS the strongest. With southwesterly upper flow and weak short wave ridge, cap will likely be strong enough to inhibit convection over the area Monday. Will only show a slight chance over the Victoria Crossroads mainly for possible streamer convection.

Low confidence forecast in place for Tuesday into Wednesday with models differing quite a bit with the upper trough placement. Deep moisture should be in place by Tuesday with precipitable water values from 1.6-1.9 inches. Expect the slow moving frontal boundary will be north of the area on Tuesday and approach the region by Wednesday. Isolated convection is expected to develop ahead of this boundary Tuesday with scattered storms forming over the higher terrain in Mexico moving into the region Tuesday night. Kept chance PoPs in the forecast for Wednesday.

Marine Discussion

Northeasterly flow has steadily weakened throughout the day. A weak to moderate east-northeasterly flow will continue overnight and gradually increase to more moderate levels by tomorrow afternoon before subsiding during the evening hours. A weak to moderate easterly flow Friday will become moderate southeasterly Friday night. The moderate onshore flow will continue Saturday and increase to moderate to strong over the Gulf waters Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure deepens over the southern plains. SCA conditions will be possible over the Gulf waters Saturday night to Sunday night. Onshore flow will diminish to moderate levels for Monday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.