Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Late. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, Occasionally To 9 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 6 Feet At 8 Seconds. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 5 Feet At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1240pm CDT Sunday May 17 2026 Issued at 128am CDT Sunday May 17 2026 Moisture is on the rise (but so is the apparent temperature the next few days)! Today will mark the start of a long stretch of at least mentionable rain chances for South Texas. Satellite depicts a few spots along the Middle Texas Coast with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) already 1.75-1.90" (>75th percentile). Our first of many mid-level shortwaves will swing northeastward across the region today, bringing low 10-15% shower and thunderstorm chances. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) continue to climb to around 2.0" (99th percentile) Monday and likely persist through much of this week as the sub-tropical jet ushers in Pacific moisture on top of near climatological max 925 specific humidity. Rain chances increase to medium to high (40-75%) Tuesday night through Saturday as more potent mid-level shortwaves pass over the area in combination of an inverted surface coastal trough. Rainfall totals Tuesday night through Saturday are projected to range from 1.50-3.00" across South Texas, with higher amounts north. Rainfall is compromised of various ensemble guidance; the ECENS ranges from 1.75-4.00", GEFS ranges from 1.00-2.00", while the GEM ranges from 2.00-2.50". Individual models have been rather persistent with their rainfall location, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) results in a wetter solution with greater rainfall closer to the coast, whereas the GFS (Global Forecast System) keeps the greatest rainfall north of South Texas. The WPC does have parts if not all of South Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding Tuesday night through Thursday night. I wouldn't be surprised if additional days will need a mention and/or increased risk later this week. Strong thunderstorms in the afternoon will be a concern mid-late this week as MUCAPE climbs above 2500 J/kg with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The two limiting factors are the 900-800mb cap and weak effective shear less than 40 knots. Given the disturbances and PVA associated with them, there will be periods that elevated lift will allow for storms to occasionally break through the cap and tap into the strong instability. Persist strong onshore flow along the Middle Texas Coast along with swell periods increasing to 7-8 seconds will increase the risk of rip currents. A moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight, then upgrades to a HIGH risk Monday. According to the P-ETSS, tide levels will struggle to reach minor coastal flooding but will have to closely monitor this morning and Monday morning. Afterwards, the astronomical tide will be on a decline. Heat indices of 100-110 today through Tuesday, along with extremely warm dewpoints forcing near record warm minimum temperatures, leads to a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts! Please stay hydrated and look before you lock: weather.gov/heat A look beyond the current forecast period: model guidance is in good agreement with a wet pattern continuing into next week as a closed mid-level low develops over West Texas, putting South Texas in a favorable environment downstream of the trough. Marine Issued at 128am CDT Sunday May 17 2026 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze will persist through Tuesday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for all waters due to sustained winds around 20 knots and frequent gusts to around 25 knots. An extension of the advisory may be necessary later this week. Southeasterly flow weakens to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Wednesday into next weekend. Low to medium rain chances begin Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then increase to a steady medium chance, 50-60%, Thursday into next weekend. NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10am CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. |
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