Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Monday...Northwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northeast In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas Around 2 Feet Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Southeast After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves Around 3 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves Around 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...South Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1056pm CST Sunday Dec 3 2023
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 325pm CST Sunday Dec 3 2023
- Gradual warming trend through the work week.
- Slight increase in rain chances by the weekend along the coastal areas and Victoria Crossroads associated with a cold front. Better chances of showers or thunderstorms expected over the coastal waters.
A progressive upper level pattern is expected through the week with a series of ridges and troughs tracking across Texas.
A broad trough Tuesday will have little to no impact on S TX weather due to limited moisture (PWAT (Precipitable Water) <1in). Ridging Wed/Thur will also keep rain chances very low (<10%) and will maintain a warming trend through the week. Toward the end of the week, models prog a long wave trough to drop south from the Pacific Northwest. Models are in good agreement with the trough deepening as it tracks southeastward across the Plains and TX, and brings a cold front through S TX by the weekend. Models differ on timing of the upper trough with the latest GFS (Global Forecast System) being the fastest of the models. Models are in fair agreement with timing of the frontal passage with a wind shift/boundary reaching the coastline around 18Z Saturday. The colder, drier air and stronger winds are forecast to lag behind the initial wind shift by 6 to 12 hours.
Moisture ahead of the cold front is expected to deepen slightly with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increasing to 1.0-1.2 inches along the middle TX coast. The moisture will interact with increasing low level convergence ahead of the front, the deepening upper level trough and RRQ of a 100kt upper jet bringing a slight chance (10-25%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly for Victoria Crossroads and along the immediate coast with the best chance (30-50%) being across the coastal waters where deeper moisture will reside.
Winds are forecast to become more onshore during the work week, leading to a gradual warming trend with highs around 80 by Friday, generally west of I37. This is 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Timing of the cold air advection will make forecasting Saturday's highs a bit tricky, but for now will go with the NBM output for day 7 which indicates highs in the mid to upper 70s. By Saturday night, lows are forecast to be in the 40s to low 50s and highs in the 60s by Sunday.
A weak northeast to east flow is forecast through mid week. The northeast to east flow across the coastal waters may lead to tides running above normal. However, am not expecting any coastal flooding during high tide due to the fact that astronomical tides will be running lower this upcoming week and winds will be light most of the week. The P-ETSS is indicating tide levels at Aransas Pass to generally be less than 1ft above MSL at times of high tide through the week.
Issued at 325pm CST Sunday Dec 3 2023
Dry conditions and generally weak winds are expected tonight through Monday night. A weak northeast to east flow can be expected mid week, becoming southeasterly the latter half of the week and increasing to moderate levels by Thursday night. Isolated to scattered showers possible next weekend associated with a cold front. Strong north winds expected behind the cold front Saturday night or Sunday.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories