Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TODAY

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SATURDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ250 Forecast Issued: 324 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Today...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting East After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely After Midnight.
Saturday...East Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting South In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sunday...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Sunday Night...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Monday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Monday Night...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Northeast After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Tuesday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Tuesday Night...South Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
324 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today becoming numerous tonight through Saturday as a cold front slowly moves through the region. A few storms may be strong to severe with strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected today becoming easterly tonight as the cold front moves southeast toward the coastline. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters late Saturday afternoon with strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from west to east Saturday night through Sunday as much drier northerly winds arrive behind the cold front. Another surge of cool high pressure by Sunday night will maintain strong northerly flow with Small Craft Advisory levels over the Coastal Waters through Monday, before these winds weaken and turn onshore by Tuesday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
544am CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Short Term - Today Through Saturday
Big changes coming today through Saturday with a cold front bringing increasing rain chances and decreasing temperatures.

Radar this morning is showing very weak mid/upper level precipitation moving northeast across the western and northern areas of S TX. This is in response to a weak embedded short wave and increasing moisture. The embedded short wave is moving east- northeast ahead of a potent mid/upper level low pressure system that is currently located across AZ/NM. Weak short waves will continue to track across the region throughout today and combine with deepening moisture (2 inch PWATs (Precipitable Waters) by afternoon)and moderate instability across the eastern CWA. The cold front is forecast to stall across S TX today providing a focus for thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall this afternoon. A few storms may become strong to severe due to the instability and an approaching upper level jet and increasing diffluence aloft. This trend will continue through tonight.

Models prog even more widespread convection by Sat as the main upper low approaches the region and the upper jet shifts eastward across TX with the RRQ of the jet overhead. The instability will be much weaker but low level convergence along the cold front will be moderate to strong. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall through Sat afternoon. The upper low is forecast to move across the TX panhandle Saturday which will help push the cold front south and east of the CWA by Sat afternoon.

Heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding today with a better chance on Saturday. Given the dry conditions, widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. Total rainfall amounts through Saturday night will range from 1/2 an inch across the Laredo area to 1 to 3 inches across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. Highest amounts are expected to be across the Victoria Crossroads with 2 to 4 inches possible.

Long Term - Saturday Night through Thursday
Long Term The principle change with this forecast was to curtail PoPs a bit faster beginning Saturday night owing to sharper isentropic downglide/drying evident on many of the 00z models behind the cold front. By Saturday evening, this front should be found entering the coastal waters ahead of breezy NNW winds and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) falling below 1/2 inch. Dry surface ridging prevails from Sunday through at least Tuesday as a pair of cool and very dry surface highs drop south from the TX Panhandle - the strongest of which arrives Monday night with the coldest lows yet of the season. Kept the window open for a light freeze across our northern tier of counties. Also, patchy frost wording was added for the Victoria Crossroads Tuesday morning where max RH values of 90% or more are forecast thanks to 1 to 3 inches of antecedent rainfall/moist soils.

Uneventful cyclonic NW flow lingers through Tuesday before backing more westerly ahead of the next upper trough crossing the Four Corners by midweek. Models exhibit sizable spread with the evolution of this wave thanks to split flow phasing issues with the northern member of the trough, so for now we'll keep with the idea of a gradual uptick in moist isentropic flow on Wednesday followed by another cold front sometime late Wed. This moistening southerly fetch looks to be displaced mostly offshore under rather strong westerly flow, although if the next upper trough is more meridional (ECMWF), then a portion of this moist axis would easily be tugged farther inland and open the door to even better shower chances from Wed-Thu. With the exception of some pre-frontal warming on Wed, below normal highs and lows should be the rule in this pattern.

Marine Discussion
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today becoming numerous tonight through Saturday as a cold front slowly moves through the region. A few storms may be strong to severe with strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Outside of the thunderstorms, a weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected today becoming easterly tonight as the cold front moves southeast toward the coastline. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters late Saturday afternoon with strong offshore flow developing in its wake. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east Saturday night through Sunday morning as much drier northerly winds develop. Another surge of cool high pressure by Sunday night will maintain strong northerly flow with Small Craft Advisory levels over the Coastal Waters through Monday, before these winds weaken and turn onshore by Tuesday. Daily shower chances return on Wednesday with yet another cold front expected Thursday. This front could generate another round of strong offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.