Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...North Wind 30 To 35 Knots With Gusts To Around 45 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet Building To 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet After Midnight. Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...North Wind 25 To 30 Knots With Gusts To Around 45 Knots. Seas 6 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Wednesday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Showers Likely And A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...North Wind Around 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Friday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Saturday...Northeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...East Wind Around 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
916 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019
Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight. A very strong offshore flow with gale conditions will also continue tonight and Tuesday. Precipitation will dissipate Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely linger through Tuesday night. A weak northeast flow is expected on Wednesday with a weak easterly flow developing over the Gulf waters Wednesday night as a coastal trough forms. Scattered to numerous showers are possible Wednesday night through Thursday evening as an upper level disturbance moves across south Texas. A reinforcing front will bring moderate to strong north winds Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1102pm CST Monday Nov 11 2019
Winds across the CWA remain very strong, with the exception of northern LaSalle County, therefore have expanded the Wind Advisory to include all of S TX. The western portions are expected to be below advisory levels by midnight, while the inland coastal areas are expected to remain at advisory levels into early Tuesday morning. The islands will persist the longest, thus left the expiration at Noon Tuesday.
AVIATION... Very strong cold front currently moving south through S TX, is bringing very strong north winds with occasional gusts as high as 45 knots for areas close to the coast. Gusts to 35 knots will be more frequent for coastal areas through the evening. Rain showers are also moving south with the frontal bdry. This has led to brief MVFR/IFR conditions. The bdry is expected to be south of the LRD and Kingsville areas by 00Z. Another upper disturbance is expected to bring additional rain to S TX overnight into early Tuesday morning. There is a very low chance that freezing rain or ice pellets may briefly develop across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads and have included in the TEMPO groups for COT and VCT. IFR conditions will also be possible through early Tuesday morning. Conditions are expected to improve from north to south through the day Tue, with VFR conditions expected by early to mid afternoon.
SHORT TERM... The cold front has moved slightly faster than initially anticipated but this will not result in a significant difference in timing-- perhaps an hour or two earlier than previously forecast. Showers have begun to move into the area across the Victoria Crossroads. Showers will likely continue to overspread the area tonight, but any activity should be light. Temperatures will quickly plummet behind the front--locations to the north of our area had temperatures drop nearly 25 degrees with the FROPA. Winds will increase behind the front to advisory criteria across the coastal counties by 6pm tonight. All locations are likely to experience strong, gusty winds.
Temperatures will drop to near freezing Tuesday morning which, when combined with expected strong winds, will lead to wind chills below freezing. Caution should be used if out and about overnight and in the morning. Furthermore, some freezing rain will be possible across our northern counties and the Victoria Crossroads. Any elevated surfaces may become slick, but with warm ground temperatures, we do not anticipate any accumulations or widespread impacts. The previous forecast mentioned some sleet possible; however, given the shallow depth of the cold layer, this seems less likely so have removed the mention from the forecast. It is still possible that some very isolated areas of sleet may occur, but confidence is low.
Precipitation and winds should begin to diminish Tuesday evening/night, but temperatures will remain quite cold--reaching to or just below freezing.
Long Term - Wednesday through Monday
The upper low, currently near central Baja California, will move east-southeast into northwest Mexico by Wednesday morning. This upper low will then move east across northern Mexico through Wednesday night and across south Texas on Thursday. A weak surface ridge axis will be over the area early Wednesday morning. But a coastal trough will form by Wednesday evening as the upper low approaches. Expect best chance for scattered showers will develop along this boundary from the coastal waters into the coastal plains with a possibility of embedded thunderstorms Thursday as the upper low moves across the region.
Rain chances will move into the coastal waters as the upper low moves to the east Thursday evening. The coastal trough will move east with the upper low and a reinforcing high pressure ridge will move back into region Thursday night. North winds could become breezy along the coast. After a period of cool temperatures, the ridge axis will move to the east on Saturday with a gradual warming trend expected for the weekend with a weak onshore flow.
There are some differences in the models with regard to timing of the next upper level short wave trough moving out of the Rockies into the southern plains Sunday. The GFS has the short wave trough east of the area by 12Z Monday while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows a deeper trough moving into the Brush Country. Will show slight chance Probability of Precipitation for the area Sunday, broad brush low chance Probability of Precipitation for Sunday night, and lower PoPs to slight chance for Monday.
A strong cold front is expected to cross the waters this evening and tonight. Shower activity will increase ahead of and along the front, then linger through Tuesday afternoon. Strong to Gale Force winds will occur behind the front. Gale conditions are expected to begin this evening around 6 pm and will continue through 1 pm Tuesday across the Bays, when Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely. The Offshore Waters will experience Gale conditions from 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday evening. Winds to 30 to 35 knots are expected tonight and tomorrow with gusts near 45 knots. Seas across the Offshore Waters will build to 9 to 11 feet, with occasional seas to 14 feet. Conditions will improve Tuesday evening, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely linger through Tuesday night.
A weak northeast flow is expected on Wednesday with a weak easterly flow developing over the Gulf waters Wednesday night as a coastal trough forms. Scattered to numerous showers are possible Wednesday night through Thursday evening as an upper level low moves across south Texas. A reinforcing front will bring moderate to strong north winds Thursday afternoon through Friday with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely for the Gulf waters. A weak onshore flow will form on Saturday as the ridge of high pressure moves to the east and an area of low pressure forms over the southern high plains. Another chance for rain will occur Sunday into Monday with the approach of another upper level disturbance.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST Tuesday For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas... Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces... Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg Islands... Nueces Islands.
Wind Advisory until 4am CST Tuesday For the following zones: Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Victoria.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight For the following zones: Bee...Duval...Goliad...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.
GM...Gale Warning until 6pm CST Tuesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM... Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6pm CST Tuesday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.
Gale Warning until noon CST Tuesday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.