Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas Around 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: East 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 6 Seconds. |
| Tuesday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. |
| Wednesday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. |
| Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230pm CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Issued at 1217pm CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Synoptic Overview: South Texas will remain sandwiched between two H5 ridges, one positioned over the Atlantic and the other over the SW US through most of the forecast period. At the surface, warm southeasterly flow will largely prevail through the period along the western periphery of the eastern High, and eastern periphery of the western US thermal low. Overall this period will see reduced mid- latitude (i.e. westerly influences) as we begin to transition to more of a tropical/easterly dominated climatic regime (which will likely largely persist for the next few months). Details: PWATs (Precipitable Waters) generally in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range, MUCAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) in the 3500-4000 J/kg (both roughly corresponding to the 75th to 85th climo percentiles) will prevail through the weekend. These thermodynamic parameters combined with weak surface convergence focused along the coast and sea-breezes will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the S-SE component of the low-level winds would expect that low-level convergence will be maximized over northern portions of the coastal bend so consequently. Light flow aloft and unimpressive shear profiles should preclude the development of organized storms, although wet microbursts always remain a possibility with CAPE values this high. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding is a threat with HREF LPMM maxima of over 2 inches focused near the Victoria Crossroads Sunday afternoon. However, the scattered storm coverage and a moderate southerly component of the low-level flow should keep any hydro threat localized. Outside of any storms the main concern will be heat, with peak heat indices in the 105-112 range and the only real relief coming in the form of thunderstorm outflows and convective debris cloud cover. Heading into early next week, slightly drier air (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) decreasing down to 1.5 to 1.6 inches) will begin to filter in by Tuesday- Wednesday, which should reduce storm coverage into the isolated range, focused largely near the coast and Gulf waters. Seasonably high MaxT and Max ApparentT values can be expected to persist keeping low-end heat concerns going through the period. Forecast uncertainty increases heading into the Thursday-Friday timeframe as deeper tropical moisture, characterized by PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 2 inches, begins to lift northward. There remains uncertainty in both the northward extent of the moisture surge as well as with the northward extent of any forcing associated with an inverted trough/tropical wave feature. However, the signal is strong enough to at least support an increase in PoPs/Sky and a slight decrease in temperatures for Thu/Fri relative to mid-week. Marine Issued at 1217pm CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 South-southeasterly moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will persist into next week, with a few periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution, largely in the Tue-Wednesday timeframe. A low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily through the middle of next next week. NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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