Marine Weather Net

Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TODAY

N
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ250 Forecast Issued: 301 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
Today...North Wind 25 To 30 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Tonight...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Saturday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Sunday...South Wind Around 10 Knots Becoming 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.
Sunday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet Building To 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Monday...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Showers Likely.
Monday Night...Southwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Tuesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting South In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
301 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

Weak to moderate northeast winds will turn to the north and strengthen this morning as reinforcing high pressure moves into the region. A Gale Warning is in effect for the nearshore and offshore waters today as frequent gusts to gale force will be possible. A Small Craft Advisory in place for the bays. Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through Friday evening, with Small Craft Advisory conditions to then replace the Gale Warning. Winds will decrease to weak to moderate by Saturday, with onshore flow to resume Saturday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow Sunday will increase to moderate to strong Sunday night and Monday as a mid-level disturbance moves north of the area. Isolated showers will develop late Sunday night and increase to numerous showers on Monday. An isolated rumble of thunder will be possible on Monday. Rain will come to an end Monday night and winds will decrease to weak to moderate onshore flow. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will turn to the north and become strong. Temperatures will once again dip near freezing which, when combined with the strong winds, could lead to some light icing on vessels, though confidence in this is not high. Scattered showers are expected ahead of and along the front.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
337am CST Fri Jan 28 2022

Short Term - Today Through Saturday
Weak coastal troughing over the region will continue isentropic lifting and light rain over South Texas ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Will expect a mix of light rain and showers as the boundary moves farther south through the rest of the early morning hours. The boundary should move offshore just before or around daybreak with cold air advection builds south. A tight pressure gradient will develop as surface high pressure around 1038mb sits across West Texas. This will result in breezy conditions over land with gale conditions over the gulf waters. Temperatures today will struggle to get out of the 50s, especially across the southern Brush Country where thick clouds will linger a bit longer. Dry air will filter in through the afternoon allowing clouds to thin out from north to south.

As surface high pressure settles over the region overnight with winds becoming lighter, will expect chilly to cold conditions to develop. A light freeze is expected to occur for inland locations mainly from Victoria west to areas near Tilden. The Freeze watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM Saturday.

Surface high pressure will quickly shift east through the day on Saturday, with slightly warmer temperatures, albeit in the low to mid 60s. Light northerly winds will gradually turn out of the south to southeast through Saturday afternoon.

Long Term - Saturday Night through Thursday
Sunday will be fairly pleasant after a cold start to the day. Temperatures will warm from the mid 30s into the low 70s for much of South Texas. Light onshore flow will increase to more moderate flow Sunday night as a mid to upper level low approaches Texas. This low will cross the Great State Sunday night through Monday, interacting with returning moisture to trigger some showers, especially across the east. While instability will be limited, upper level support may be enough to allow for some isolated thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. Winds will weaken back to weak to moderate Monday night and precipitation chances will come to an end from west to east with temperatures warming through the week.

Showers will return late next week as a deep upper level trough digs across the central CONUS, pushing a strong cold front across South Texas sometime Wednesday night through Thursday. The forecast still remains tricky, though global models have come into better agreement regarding the timing. Freezing temperatures, strong northerly winds, and low wind chills are possible late this week. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) nearly 1.2 inches, precipitation is expected ahead of the front. At this time, wintry precipitation seems unlikely, but should forecast conditions change, it may be something we have to monitor.

Marine

Weak to moderate northeast winds will turn to the north and strengthen this morning as reinforcing high pressure moves into the region. A Small Craft Advisory of the nearshore and offshore waters early this morning will strengthen to Gale Warning for much of today as frequent gusts to gale force will be possible. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for the bays for today. Moderate to strong offshore flow will continue through this evening, with Small Craft Advisory conditions to then replace the Gale Warning. Winds will decrease to weak to moderate by Saturday, with onshore flow to resume Saturday night.

Weak to moderate onshore flow Sunday will increase to moderate to strong Sunday night and Monday as a mid-level disturbance moves north of the area. Isolated showers will develop late Sunday night and increase to numerous showers on Monday. An isolated rumble of thunder will be possible on Monday. Rain will come to an end Monday night and winds will decrease to weak to moderate onshore flow. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will turn to the north and become strong. Temperatures will once again dip near freezing which, when combined with the strong winds, could lead to some light icing on vessels, though confidence in this is not high. Scattered showers are expected ahead of and along the front.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9am CST Saturday For the following zones: Bee...Goliad...Inland Refugio...Live Oak...McMullen...Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6am CST early this morning For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 6am this morning to 3pm CST this afternoon For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6am this morning to 3pm CST this afternoon For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.