Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight. Some Thunderstorms May Produce Damaging Winds And Large Hail After Midnight. |
| Friday...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Friday Night...East Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Around 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Saturday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday...Southwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots Shifting Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. |
| Sunday Night...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting North After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. |
| Monday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
| Monday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. |
| Tuesday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. |
| Tuesday Night...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. |
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200 410 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020 An approaching frontal boundary and upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through early Friday morning. Some storms may become severe with damaging wind and large hail. Moderate northeast flow expected Friday after frontal passage. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for Friday. The front will retreat northward as a warm front Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday through Saturday night as another cold front is expected to move offshore early Sunday morning. Expect much drier conditions Sunday moderate to strong offshore flow. SCEC to SCA conditions are possible for the offshore waters Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front is expected to come through Monday morning with SCA possibly needed for the gulf waters through the day. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 441pm CDT Thu April 9 2020 Short Term - Tonight Through Friday Night Tonight...The combination of CAPE, above normal PWAT (Precipitable Water) values, and frontal boundary predicted to move slowly SEWD across the CWA, will contribute to convection tonight. Expect severe convection over the CWA tonight given SBCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg (18z special CRP sounding) and large 0-6km wind shear in advance of the front. The NAM/ECMWF, GFS/RAP, and Canadian differ with respect to the timing of the front, with the Canadian fastest, followed by the GFS/RAP solutions, and the NAM/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) slowest. Thus, convection could persist over the ERN CWA beyond 03z Friday if the NAM/ECMWF frontal solution verifies. Both the Experimental HRRRE and the SREF suggest that convection will continue at 06z Friday over the ERN CWA/near the coast. Anticipate that the front will move offshore by 06z Friday. Caveat, the front could stall along the coast overnight which could contribute to a heavy rainfall event, high CAPE and high vertical shear notwithstanding. Friday/Friday night...Deterministic runs predict the upper jet to move over the CWA by Friday afternoon, and persist Friday night, which may trigger additional isolated/scattered convection. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday night)... An upper-level trough digs deep into Baja California Saturday, gradually shifting eastward through the weekend. Ahead of this trough, mid-level SW-NE oriented shortwaves develop and move across South Texas. These disturbances, along with other conditions such as sufficient vorticity, isentropic lift, and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values up to 1.8", will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday and Saturday night. There is severe potential as CAPE values range from 1500 to 2500 J/kg across the area, and upper-level divergence aloft along with a trailing front provides lift. The Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook has the northern portion of the CWA in a slight risk, whereas the rest is in a marginal. The northern portion of the CWA seems most favorable due to weaker CIN and greater CAPE. The Pacific front pushes through the area by early Sunday morning, quickly diminishing rain chances as westerly winds dominate. The drying pattern continues as a stronger Canadian cold front plunges its way through South Texas late Sunday night. Moderate to strong northerly to northeasterly winds will follow the passage of the front, creating possible SCEC and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions over the waters. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday in the wake of the front for portions of Webb County and the southern half of the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains. Temperatures will plummet following FROPA through the midweek, with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s and highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Due to the timing of the front and the uncertainty of additional reinforcing, temperatures will need to be adjusted appropriately in future forecasts. A surface high pressure north of us will continue to travel eastward, allowing for winds to become more easterly, however Probability of Precipitation are not mentioned as there seems to be a lack of sufficient moisture advection. Near the very end of the forecast period, some mid-to- upper level disturbances make their way into West Texas that may impact our area late in the week. ETSS continues to show increasing surge for the weekend, leading to rises in tide levels along the Middle Texas Coast. Tide levels are forecast to reach around 2.0 feet above mean sea level Saturday morning during high tide. Offshore flow following the front allows for the lowering of tide levels to just over 1.5 feet on Sunday morning. Marine Expect a frontal boundary to trigger strong to severe convection later tonight/early Friday morning, with damaging wind and large hail as the primary threats. After frontal passage, moderate northeast flow is anticipated Friday afternoon/Friday night. Owing to upper jet dynamics, isolated showers and thunderstorm activity may occur Friday/Friday night. The front will retreat northward as a warm front Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday through Saturday night as another cold front is expected to move offshore early Sunday morning. Expect much drier conditions Sunday moderate to strong offshore flow. SCEC to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible for the offshore waters Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. A stronger cold front is expected to come through Monday morning with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) possibly needed for the gulf waters through the day. Possible reinforcing offshore flow will allow for the potential of SCEC to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to resume Tuesday night into Wednesday. NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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