Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. |
| Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Areas Of Fog After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
| Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough. |
| Thursday...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. |
| Friday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. |
| Friday Night...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy. |
| Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 145pm CDT Tuesday September 23 2025 Issued at 1256pm CDT Tuesday September 23 2025 Latest CAM guidance is showing hints at an earlier FROPA timing for the 'cold' front, moving across South Texas beginning as early as Wednesday evening and continuing slowly into early Thursday morning. Global models are slower with FROPA but in past events, these shallow fronts proceed further south than expected and are better reflected in CAMs. Ahead of the front, moisture will pool significantly, leading to PWAT (Precipitable Water) values near the 99th percentile across the region. A frontal boundary, seabreeze, mid- level PVA activity as the primary lifting mechanisms, combined with 99th percentile moisture, warrants a medium to high (60-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across South Texas. There is a marginal risk of severe storms (level 1 of 5), mainly for locally strong outflows/gusts along the leading line of convection. In addition, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding for heavy rain rates training or nearly stationary over the same area. There is lower confidence on how far south the front will push heading into the day on Thursday, and therefore rain chances dip to range from 30-50% Thursday afternoon. As the surface high centers over the ARKLATEX (Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas) region, a reinforcing surge of high pressure followed by much drier air in its wake from the north to northeast tries to push into the area Friday. So far, it looks more likely that this drier air (dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s) will remain to our north to northeast and not infiltrate South Texas. HREF indicates a mean rainfall total through early Thursday morning of up to 2.5" in local areas stretching from Victoria to Laredo. However, there is a large spread of 1-3" from the 25-75th percentile, showing uncertainties on just how much rainfall will occur with this event. It is important however to note that this does not include any additional rainfall after 7am Thursday. This weekend looks to be dry with low rain chances returning early next week as moisture returns to normal with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) around 1.5". High temperatures will drop about 10 degrees from ranging 90-102 on Wednesday, to 85-95 Thursday through Monday. Clear skies and lower dewpoints will allow for efficient cooling inland in the wake of the front, dropping low temperatures into the mid 60s over the inland Coastal Plains beginning Thursday night. Marine Issued at 1256pm CDT Tuesday September 23 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday night before shifting to the north/northeast briefly on Thursday as a cold front moves across the waters before returning to onshore flow Thursday night or Friday, depending on a reinforcing surge of high pressure temporarily shifting winds northeast to east. Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday will increase to high chances Wednesday night through Thursday. Rain chances decrease to low Friday and will persist through this weekend. NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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