Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...West Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting East Early In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Southeast Late In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth.|
|Tonight...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Monday...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Monday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Tuesday...South Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Thursday...Northeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy.|
|Thursday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth.|
| Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
952 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will diminish later this evening with drier conditions tonight and Monday. Weak offshore flow with shift onshore later this afternoon, then increase to weak to moderate onshore flow tonight through Tuesday. Winds will weaken ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become possible as moisture increases ahead of the cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moderate to strong northerly winds are expected Wednesday morning behind the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is possible Wednesday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
631am CDT Sunday September 19 2021
/Issued 435am CDT Sunday September 19 2021/
Short Term - Today Through Monday
Deterministic runs predict the upper trough/low, with N-S axis currently along the TX coast, to lift east/northeast during the period, while another upper disturbance enters the Plains. Anticipate that the proximity disturbance will contribute to isolated convection mainly over the Victoria Crossroads today, with moisture as the limiting factor (most recent GOES-16 TPW depicts greatest PWAT (Precipitable Water) values over the Victoria Crossroads, with values around 1.6 inches which is slightly below normal.) Drier conditions expected tonight/Monday owing to increasing subsidence/drying over the CWA behind the upper disturbance. Maximum Heat Index values generally 100-105F today, yet 105-109F Monday. Water levels have risen to around 1.5 ft MSL, likely in response to the nearness of the full moon. However, given do not expect levels to reach 2 ft MSL, when considering expected wind/sea state and ETSS output.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
Weak ridging in the upper levels is expected to continue trough Tuesday before the passage of the expected cold front. Models are beginning to come into better agreement in regards to the timing and intensity of the cold front. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM are now showing the frontal passage Tuesday night with the front pushing all the way through Deep South Texas Wednesday. As the cold front approaches South Texas Tuesday night, models are showing deeper moisture being ushered into South Texas with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ranging from 2.0 to 2.16 inches (75th percentile climatological mean). With the deeper moisture and lifting due to the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With an upper level ridge building into South Texas behind the front, subsidence will lead to clear skies with minimal chances of precipitation Thursday through the weekend.
With weak ridging ahead of the cold front, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 90s to near 102 degrees. The combination of warm temperatures and moisture will lead to heat indices ranging within 105 and 109 degrees across South Texas. Behind the front max temperatures will be cooler, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. By Saturday, max temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s near the coast to the mid 90s out west. With cooler air filtering into South Texas behind the front, low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to dip into from the upper 50s to the upper 60s. With the increased subsidence and clear skies, radiational cooling is expected to continue into the weekend with lows maintaining in the lower to upper 60s.
An upper level disturbance will contribute to isolated convection today. Drier tonight and Monday, as the upper system moves east. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected to develop tonight and Monday as low pressure deepens over the Southern Plains. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue Monday night into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. By Tuesday afternoon winds are expected to subside to weaker levels as the front sweeps across South Texas. Behind the front, moderate to strong northerly winds are expected Wednesday morning with winds subsiding to more moderate levels by Wednesday night. Therefore, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions or a Small Craft Advisory will be possible Wednesday. With an increase in moisture ahead of the cold front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories