Marine Weather Net

Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

SW
WINDS
5 KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ230 Forecast Issued: 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Tonight...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots Late In The Night. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Friday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southwest Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth.
Saturday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Sunday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy.
Sunday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy.
Monday...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy.
Monday Night...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Weak to moderate northeast flow will continue tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase Friday as moisture increases due to a potential tropical cyclone currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development late tonight or early Friday morning as it moves north over the western Gulf of Mexico. While this system is expected to pass to the east of our waters, increased swell and moderate to occasionally strong flow will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday evening. Wave heights are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night/Sunday, continuing the Small Craft Advisory conditions. A weak to moderate onshore wind is expected Saturday and Sunday with winds increasing to stronger levels Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to return Monday night through the end of the period. With the period of stronger winds, Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday morning, other than that, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions can be expected throughout the remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the local waters Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances tapering off by Thursday, however, an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop Thursday and Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635pm CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Short Term - Tonight Through Friday Night
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early tonight as a bit of energy moves over the area. Convection should end shortly as subsidence begins tonight. The big story for the forecast is the Potential Tropical Cyclone currently located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor this system and expects a tropical depression to develop later tonight or early Friday morning. A jet streak expected to develop off of the coast should result in asymmetric development, keeping most of the rain and winds to the east of the storm. Rain is not expected to be much of an issue for us; however, increased swell and wave heigheights will lead to both minor coastal flooding and an increased rip current risk.

Otherwise, we will continue to be warm, with heat indices reaching near 105 for Friday across the area. A few diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible over the waters and Victoria Crossroads Friday afternoon.

An Ozone Action Day has been declared for Corpus Christi and Victoria. Folks in these areas should use caution when spending time outside.

Long Term - Saturday through Thursday
The beginning of the long term period is still up in the with the uncertainties associated with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. At the moment, the idea is that most of the activity will remain to the east of the system due to high shear which will result in lower probabilities of rain across the CWA. Despite dodging a bullet from the rain, dangerous rip currents will be a factor as moderate to high rip currents are expected through the weekend. Despite astronomical low tides, long period swells and wave run-up could result in minor coastal flooding across South Texas beaches and bays through the weekend.

During the early portion of next week, a trough is expected to dig into the Midwest across the Great Plains and eject a boundary into Texas. Confidence is currently low on how far south the boundary will go as the GFS has it reaching the northern border of our CWA before washing out while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has it washing out across North Texas. With plenty of moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) above 2 inches) in the wake of the disturbance and the approaching boundary, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday with rain chances tapering in off Thursday. An upper level ridge is expected begin building into South Texas Thursday from the west and slowly progress eastward through the end of the long term period.

Temperatures are expected to remain hot with max temperatures ranging from the triple digits to lower 90s from west to east. With dewpoints in the upper 70s and lower 80s combined with temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to 108 degrees, heat indices are expected to be high Sunday and Monday. At the moment, heat indices on Sunday could range from 105 to 113 degrees while heat indices Monday can possibly reach 120 degrees. Elevated heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees will remain possible from Tuesday to the end of the extended period.

Marine Discussion

Weak to moderate northeast flow will continue tonight. Rain chances will begin to increase Friday as moisture increases due to a potential tropical cyclone currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development late tonight or early Friday morning as it moves north over the western Gulf of Mexico. While this system is expected to pass to the east of our waters, increased swell and moderate to occasionally strong flow will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday evening. Wave heigheights are expected to remain elevated through Saturday night/Sunday, continuing the Small Craft Advisory conditions. A weak to moderate onshore wind is expected Saturday and Sunday with winds increasing to stronger levels Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to return Monday night through the end of the period. With the period of stronger winds, Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday morning, other than that, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions can be expected throughout the remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the local waters Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances tapering off by Thursday, however, an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop Thursday and Friday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.