Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Tonight...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy.|
|Monday...Southeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Choppy.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting East After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Wednesday Night...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Thursday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Thursday Night...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
| Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
1028 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020
Moderate south to southeasterly winds continue today, strengthening to moderate to strong later tonight. Moderate onshore flow dominates Monday ahead of the upcoming cold front. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible tonight into Monday ahead of the front. Isolated showers are possible this morning, clearing up by the afternoon. A moderate onshore flow Monday night will shift to offshore by Tuesday morning as a cold front pushes into the coastal waters. The moderate offshore flow will increase to moderate to strong Wednesday as another surge of high pressure enters the waters. Scattered showers will be possible behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Drier air will move in Wednesday afternoon ending the rain chances. Tropical Storm Zeta has formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Swells from Zeta will reach the Gulf waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will continue to move into the area Thursday providing a moderate to strong offshore flow.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1238pm CDT Sunday Oct 25 2020
UPDATE... Visible satellite imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover continuing to be advected northward through South Texas. While this had led to temperatures running a degree or two below the previous forecast, afternoon mixing is expected to result in decreasing cloud cover allowing for additional insolation and high temperatures reaching the mid/upper 80s to low 90s. Therefore, relatively minor changes were made to the hourly forecast to better reflect current observations. The only additional change to the previous forecast was to remove chances for showers over the coastal waters through the rest of the morning as they have failed to develop.
AVIATION... MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) ceilings are present over all sites due to a low stratus deck and are expected to fluctuate between MVFR/VFR through the morning hours. Brief breaks in the deck are possible. LRD is currently lowest at 1000ft and would not be surprised if ceilings briefly go to IFR this morning. ALI, CRP, LRD, and COT CIGs are expected to rise to VFR in the afternoon as southeast winds increase, gusting near 20 knots. VCT may have difficulty getting out of MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) through the entire period based upon the SREF probabilities and NAM soundings. Gusty winds and a repeat of MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) CIGs are expected through the evening and overnight hours for all sites. No visibility issues are expected through the period.
Short Term - Today Through Monday
A low stratus deck has developed over the waters and pushed inland into the Coastal Bend and Plains early this morning. Expecting broken to overcast skies with the low deck through the morning before rising and becoming mostly cloudy through the afternoon. High resolution short-term guidances show potential for isolated showers this morning over the waters and extreme northeast Coastal Bend where a weak surface trough axis and moisture convergence lies. Rain chances dissipate by the afternoon as high pressure aloft dominates. Onshore winds strengthen this afternoon, persisting through the evening as the surface pressure gradient increases due to the low pressure system over the Southwest CONUS pushing eastward. A repeat is expected tonight, with a low stratus deck dominating over much of the area, prohibiting radiational cooling.
Similar conditions are expected through the day Monday, with moderate onshore flow under mostly cloudy skies ahead of the approaching cold front. There are still inconsistencies between models on the progression of the front, but have leaned more towards the NAM. Included isolated showers and storms over the far northern part of the CWA during the late afternoon Monday ahead of the front. There is low confidence on storm potential as there lies a significant cap to overcome. Due to the kink shape nature of the front over the Rio Grande, may start to see the southern edge of the front come through the western Brush Country in the late afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal both Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows on Sunday night will be well above normal due to the persistent cloud cover and onshore flow, ranging in the low to mid 70s. Lastly, ESTOFS, P-ETSS, and ETSS show water levels around 2 ft MSL on Sunday night during times of high tide. Therefore, there is a potential for minor coastal flooding and will monitor this trend at time progresses.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
Medium range models continue to struggle with handling the next cold front. GFS has been very inconsistent over the past few days and disregarded for the forecast. NAM usually handles shallow cold air masses better than other models. NAM continues to show the front moving into the northwest part of the forecast area by 00Z Tuesday and pushes the front into the coastal waters before 12Z Tuesday. This is line with the consistent ICON model, so went close to the NAM for the forecast period from Monday night through Tuesday night using a blend of the previous forecast with the MET guidance.
A strong upper low will develop over southeast Arizona by 12Z Tuesday. The upper low will move east of El Paso by 12Z Wednesday and through the Red River valley by 12Z Thursday. Warm air advection elevated above the shallow cold air mass should lead to scattered showers Monday night through early Wednesday morning. Most of the lift associated with the upper low will be north of the area. For now, have not mentioned thunderstorms in the forecast. There may be an axis of elevated instability near the western Brush Country late Monday night that could lead to isolated storms. Will also need to watch the period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the upper low kicks out to the east as NAM shows elevated instability and moisture could be a bit better during this period.
Rain chances will diminish during the day Wednesday as region is affected by a dry slot to the south of the ejecting upper low. Winds will increase Wednesday as the secondary surge of high pressure moves into the area. Adjusted dewpoint temperatures down from previous forecast using CONSAll from Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast will be quiet for the remainder of the forecast period into the weekend as a high pressure ridge will remain over south Texas.
Tropical Storm Zeta has formed in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Zeta is forecast by NHC to become a hurricane Tuesday morning as it moves northwest into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Zeta is then forecast to turn northward toward the north-central Gulf coast on Wednesday. Swells from Zeta will likely lead to a period of minor coastal flooding Tuesday night through Thursday.
Moderate south to southeasterly winds continue through the day, strengthening to moderate to strong later tonight. Moderate onshore flow dominates Monday ahead of the upcoming cold front. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible tonight into Monday ahead of the front. Isolated showers are possible over the waters this morning, clearing up by the afternoon. A moderate onshore flow Monday night will shift to offshore by Tuesday morning as a cold front pushes into the coastal waters. The moderate offshore flow will increase to moderate to strong/SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels Wednesday as another surge of high pressure enters the waters. Scattered showers will be possible behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Drier air will move in Wednesday afternoon ending the rain chances. Tropical Storm Zeta has formed over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Swells from Zeta will reach the Gulf waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will continue to move into the area Thursday providing a moderate to strong offshore flow.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories