Marine Weather Net

Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TODAY

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
UP TO
5 KNOTS

MONDAY

W
WINDS
5 KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ230 Forecast Issued: 330 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
Today...Northwest Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.
Tonight...Southwest Wind Up To 5 Knots Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Smooth.
Monday...West Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth.
Monday Night...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth.
Tuesday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Tuesday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Wednesday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Wednesday Night...East Wind Around 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thursday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. A Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
330 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

Strong to very strong offshore flow and high seas over the coastal waters early this morning. Conditions will then gradually improve from west to east. Generally weak to moderate west wind tonight. Light and variable wind Monday. Onshore flow will become moderate on Tuesday as low pressure develops over the southern high plains. Southerly winds could increase to moderate to strong levels over the Gulf waters Tuesday night but decrease to weak to moderate for Wednesday. A cold front will move into the coastal waters late Wednesday night with a strong offshore flow developing behind the front Thursday into Thursday night. Scattered showers will be possible along and behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
405am CST Sunday Jan 16 2022

Short Term - Today Through Monday
Concur with the deterministic output which predicts an upper low moving across the SERN CONUS today, followed by a quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS Monday. The NAM maintains below normal PWAT values during the period. A gradual warming trend with respect to high temperatures is expected. Near freezing temperatures expected again tonight. Not confident with regard to a Freeze Warning given SREF and HREF freeze probabilities.

Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
Fairly quiet beginning to the long term period with a weak shortwave passing by on Monday night, but with very dry air (PWAT (Precipitable Water) < 0.5"), will not have any impact on the region. Temperatures will be gradually increasing into the middle of the work-week with a zonal mid level flow and 850 winds turning back to the southwest ushering in 850mb temps up to 18-19C. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be back into the lower 80s (west Tues, much of the area Wed).

Wednesday night into Thursday we'll see a big change as a cold front moves through with a rather cold airmass behind it. Moisture ahead of the front is still limited, but could see a few showers along the front, and then isentropic lift flow develops to keep rain chances in the forecast through early Friday. Best rain chances are offshore, but have slight chance Probability of Precipitation over the entire area and chance Probability of Precipitation mainly in the Coastal Plains. After morning low temperatures in the 40s for most of the area Thursday, daytime temperatures will be only in the 50s...and probably the lower side of 50s for most of the area. Combine this with the northerly wind and showers/drizzle, and it'll feel a lot like winter out there. Low temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s with a few areas approaching freezing...as winds subside. For those of you doing the math...I did mention temperatures approaching freezing and rain chances at the same time. And that equals a difficult forecast. While I'm not adding any frozen precipitation types into the forecast at this time, it is worth mentioning the possibility, mainly north. Right now, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is the colder model...but also ends rain chances earlier, so likely would not line up for anything frozen. GFS is warmer, but keeps rain chances longer. GFS profiles currently suggest rain with a significant warm layer to melt anything that is frozen aloft. And then there's the NBM with ptypes indicating the potential for some mixed precipitation. All that in mind, confidence is pretty low in any potential for frozen precipitation but it is definitely something to keep our eyes on as we move through the week.

Once we get through the precipitation into Friday, we should mainly end rain chances by the afternoon, though a slight chance will remain near the coast into Saturday with slightly higher chances over the waters. Cold air remains in place Friday and Saturday with highs in the 50s. Low temperatures Friday night would likely approach freezing once again.

Marine

Strong/very strong north wind and high seas early this morning. Expect improving conditions from west to east today After coordinating with WFOs BRO/HGX, will retain the Gale Warning over the coastal waters until 15z, hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore coastal waters 15-18z and offshore coastal waters 15-21z. Anticipate only Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions over the bays this morning. Dry conditions expected during the period. Onshore flow will become moderate on Tuesday as low pressure develops over the southern high plains. Southerly winds could increase to moderate to strong levels over the Gulf waters Tuesday night but decrease to weak to moderate for Wednesday. A cold front will move into the coastal waters late Wednesday night with a strong offshore flow developing behind the front Thursday into Thursday night. Scattered showers will be possible along and behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday night.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Freeze Warning until 9am CST this morning For the following zones: Bee...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to 3pm CST this afternoon For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 9am CST this morning For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9am this morning to noon CST today For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.