Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth.|
|Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Patchy Fog In The Evening. Areas Of Fog After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. Patchy Fog In The Morning.|
|Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough.|
|Thursday...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy.|
|Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351pm CDT Fri May 20 2022
Short Term - Tonight Through Saturday Night
As a weak upper level trough moves east across the region, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. Rain chances could linger into the early evening before quickly diminishing before midnight. Tomorrow, weak upper level ridging and southerly winds will keep us hot and dry, with the possibility of dangerous heat indices from the Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains. Rain chances will return once again tomorrow night as a shortwave traverses across the area ahead of an approaching front, mainly across the northern half of the CWA and Victoria Crossroads.
Tomorrow will be another hot one! Max temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to mid 90s near the coast to near 105 degrees across the Brush Country. Heat indices are forecast to range between 105 and 113 degrees which could prompt a heat advisory, mainly across portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. If you have any outdoor activities, please remember to remain hydrated. Overnight low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will also remain mild with much of South Texas ranging form the mid to upper 70s.
Long Term - Sunday through Friday
A cold front draped from eastern New Mexico across the Texas Panhandle and up towards the Great Lakes this afternoon will slowly trudge towards the region by Sunday. Inspection of morning guidance reveals a variety of solutions on placement of the front on Sunday, relating to:
1. How much the post-frontal airmass modifies, with a stronger thermal gradient along the front supporting the front clearing the region/coast 2. Any convection (and associated cold pools) that develop along the front driving the front farther south
Interestingly, there appears to a signal (12Z GFS/12Z EC) for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop along the front between San Antonio and Houston as it approaches Interstate 10 early Sunday morning and this cluster may support a greater southerly push into the Victoria Crossroads with the front. Expect the front to reach at least the northern/northeastern counties of the forecast area by Sunday morning with winds backing during the day across the region in response to the front's arrival. Low level convergence and 1000- 1500 j/Kg MLCAPE along the front should be enough to allow showers and a few thunderstorms to build towards the southwest through the day Sunday.
Given the variety of solutions, have continued the trend of using a blend of model guidance with northeast to east winds 10- 15 MPH in place across the region on Sunday. If trends in deterministic guidance (which can do a better job of indicating the potential for different frontal placement due to influences of convection) continue, winds may need to be backed further to the north with high temperatures on Sunday lowered. Already went ahead and lowered temperatures a few degrees across the Victoria Crossroads in anticipation of the morning thunderstorm cluster. Otherwise, carrying 40-60 Probability of Precipitation across the region on Sunday with cooler highs than Saturday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Longwave troughing across the western CONUS will encourage southwest flow to persist across South Texas through Tuesday and become increasingly amplified through the end of the forecast period as the trough dislodges and translates across the Great Plains. Smaller disturbances embedded in the flow aloft will eject across South Central and South Texas Monday and Tuesday, ahead of the approach of the main trough. Expect this to result in the development of additional thunderstorm complexes during this time with highest rain chances for the entire forecast occurring Monday afternoon into Tuesday night. This is also when most of the rain South Texas is expected to receive will occur. The big question with this point in the forecast is the ultimate track of these disturbances, with model consensus generally along the Interstate 35 corridor. This would keep the bulk of the forcing north of the region... however the actual rainfall amounts that are realized will be influenced by the ultimate movement of any thunderstorm complex.
Probabilistic guidance (National Blend of Models) indicates the greatest chances for rainfall amounts over one inch (50-70%) are along and west of Interstate 35 on Monday and Tuesday, which keeps the strongest signal for appreciable rainfall amounts generally north of the region. Even if rainfall amounts are under an inch, mostly cloudy skies and showers and thunderstorms will keep temperatures on the cooler side in the mid 80s to mid 90s through the middle of next week. Another cold front makes a run for the Texas coast mid to late next week, bringing another shot of precipitation chances for the region.
With respect to the ongoing drought, NASA SPoRT Land Information System data from May 19 shows that soil moisture across the region is about 5-10% and any rain that falls is expected to be absorbed by the ground very quickly. This means that little to no runoff is expected to benefit area reservoirs. Drought amelioration and improvement indicators based on the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index indicate the region needs anywhere from 7-14 inches of rain to improve or remove drought over the next 30 days... and while this rain is welcome, it will do little to help drought conditions.
Strong southeasterly leave flow is expected to continue through tomorrow morning before decreasing to moderate to strong levels. This could allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire tomorrow afternoon, however, if winds even slightly stronger than forecast, the advisory could be extended. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening as a disturbance moves across South Texas. Rain chances will increase once again tomorrow night with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Moderate to occasionally strong east to southeast flow is expected Sunday through Wednesday with flow becoming northeasterly with the approach of a cold front mid to late next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for elevated winds and waves at times Monday through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday through Wednesday.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Wind Advisory until 8pm CDT this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Goliad... Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands...Victoria.
High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm CDT Saturday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am CDT Saturday For the following zones: Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre...Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays...Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays...San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays.