Marine Weather Net

Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

E
WINDS
10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ230 Forecast Issued: 328 PM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

Tonight...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wednesday...East Wind Around 10 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.
Wednesday Night...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southwest After Midnight. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Thursday...Southwest Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting South In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog.
Thursday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Patchy Fog. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Southwest Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth.
Friday Night...East Wind Around 5 Knots. Bays Smooth.
Saturday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sunday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.
Sunday Night...South Wind Around 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
318 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

A moderate onshore flow can be expected to gradually decrease through the day, becoming weak to moderate by tonight and continuing through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters until Noon today mainly due to elevated seas. Patchy sea fog across the bays and nearshore waters, will dissipate by late this morning. Isolated showers today will become scattered tonight and Wednesday. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue Wednesday night and persist through Saturday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times through the week. With warm moist air moving over the cooler water, sea fog will be a concern through the week. Isolated showers will linger through the week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1152am CST Tuesday Jan 19 2021

Short Term - Today Through Wednesday
A few showers across the Victoria Crossroads this morning will continue through the day. Models prog showers to develop across the Rio Grande Plains through the morning hours as a short wave tracks northeast across the region. A moderate southerly low level jet will continue to usher deeper moisture into S TX through the day. This moisture will combine with a developing pre-frontal trough across the Rio Grande Plains leading to increasing rain chances across the west through the afternoon. A weak cold front will move across the Hill Country today and slowly east to southeast across the CWA tonight. The frontal boundary will interact with deep moisture (PWAT (Precipitable Water) 1.6 inches)resulting in scattered to numerous showers overnight across much of S TX.

Models have been inconsistent with this front with some models showing it move through S TX, while others show it stalling. Have gone with the frontal boundary stalling along the coast by early Wednesday morning then meandering across the area through the day. This will maintain scattered to numerous showers through Wednesday morning. Rain chances are expected to decrease Wednesday afternoon as upper energy lifts north, but due to the abundant moisture in place, isolated to scattered showers will remain possible.

As for temperatures, highs today will be above normal due to warm air advection with the southerly flow. Weak Cold Air Advection will begin across the northwestern CWA tonight, then spread east Wed. Temps will remain cooler across the northwestern CWA, with more mild (but above normal) temps across the east on Wed.

Long Term - Wednesday Night through Monday
Onshore flow will have returned to the area after Wednesday's weak frontal boundary, continuing the influx of moisture to the area. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are expected to increase to near 1.8 inches through Friday, so isolated showers will remain in the forecast for the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. The onshore flow and moist air could lead to the development of patchy fog along the coast as well as sea fog. Confidence is not high, but it has been added into the forecast with favorable conditions expected. Another shallow front will approach South Texas this weekend. If the front manages to hold together, it could trigger a few more isolated showers over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. A stronger front is expected early next week as a mid-level level ejects from Baja California. Timing is still questionable, with the GFS continuing to run 12 to 24 hours faster than the ECMWF.

While we are expected several cold fronts, highs will continue to be above normal reaching into the 70s and low 80s. Warm nigheights will continue with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Marine Discussion

A moderate onshore flow can be expected to gradually decrease through the day, becoming weak to moderate by tonight and continuing through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters until Noon today mainly due to elevated seas. Patchy sea fog across the bays and nearshore waters, will dissipate by late this morning. Due to dewpoints in the lower 60s moving across relatively cooler waters, patchy sea fog will be possible once again tonight. Isolated showers today will become scattered tonight and Wednesday, mainly across the bays and nearshore waters with lower rain chances across the offshore waters.

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue Wednesday night and persist through Saturday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times through the week. With warm moist air moving over the cooler water, sea fog will be a concern through the week. Isolated showers will linger through the week.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.