Marine Weather Net

Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ230 Forecast Issued: 1026 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Rest Of Today...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Around 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Tonight...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...North Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast After Midnight. Bays Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday...North Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting East In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Sunday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
1026 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

A weak to moderate onshore flow today will turn northeasterly tonight behind a weak frontal boundary. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible, with scattered storms tonight as the boundary moves south. Generally weak northeast winds develop on Friday with lingering thunderstorms mainly over the southern waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through early next week. Weak to moderate easterly flow will return Saturday night and persist into next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636am CDT Thu May 28 2020

12Z aviation below.

Short Term - Today Through Friday
Satellite and 00Z upper air plots revealed a shortwave trough slowly shearing out over South TX complete with a narrow band of deep convection mainly over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains as of 4 AM. Expectation is this activity to continue pushing south and exiting the CWA around daybreak. Farther upstream in the TX Panhandle meanwhile, another shortwave will dive south this afternoon and tug a weak frontal boundary into the region by early evening ahead of NE winds. Although models cluster the strongest ascent in the NE upslope regime of the Sierra Madres by this evening, soundings show negligible CIN over much of the region by peak heating so we'll keep some Probability of Precipitation intact today.

An MCS is likely to emerge near or south of the Big Bend this evening and propagate south into a very unstable and favorably sheared environment. Current SWODY1 paints a Slight Risk over the western half of our CWA as some convection associated with the MCS could cross the Rio Grande with an associated risk for downbursts and some severe hail. Most of the HREF members keep the most organized convection just west of Webb County, so later forecasts may need to taper Probability of Precipitation if this scenario gains momentum. By Friday morning, a broad upper trough axis will begin drifting into Deep S TX and serve to stabilize our region from N-S by mid/late afternoon. Near normal highs remain on track at this time over all but our western zones come Friday as clouds and rain chances limit strong insolation.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Monday)... A weak frontal boundary will remain in place across South Texas through Saturday as an elongated trough stretches across the eastern US and down into the western Gulf. The tail end of this trough will be remnants of a shortwave that moved south into the region Friday. These remnants will redevelop into a mid-level low and lift northwest into Mexico Sunday/Monday. With the boundary in place, will keep mainly isolated shower/storm activity across the southern zones and gulf waters Friday night through Saturday. After drier conditions Sunday, the mid-level low is expected to move into Mexico and rain chances will begin to increase. The bulk of the rain is expected to remain across Mexico, but eastern extent of showers/storms should reach across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country Monday and Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will then begin to dry things out for mid to late week.

Near steady temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s to be in place through the weekend, with temperatures warming a few degrees by mid-week next week.

Although persistent easterly flow early next week may favor an increased rip current risk, and possibly minor tidal overflow in and around high tide, with easterly flow expected to be weak, chances should be on the lower side. Will continue to monitor trends over the next couple of days.

Marine Discussion
Weak to moderate onshore flow today will turn northeasterly tonight behind a weak frontal boundary. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible, with scattered storms tonight as the boundary moves south. Generally weak northeast winds develop on Friday with lingering thunderstorms mainly over the southern waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through early next week. Weak to moderate easterly flow will return Saturday night and persist into next week.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.