Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting East In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Thursday...Southeast Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting East In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Seas 2 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
1005 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021
Generally dry conditions will continue through the week, with isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming possible each afternoon beginning Wednesday. Weak and variable flow will become onshore by this afternoon. A weak onshore flow will continue through Thursday then increase to weak to moderate by the weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1229pm CDT Tuesday July 27 2021
AVIATION... We will start today with some MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) to IFR and visibilities across the northern tier of counties and across the Coastal Plains. ALI has maintained LIFR conditions for the last several hours. This will likely continue through sunrise before fog begins to lift. Once the daytime heating begins, VFR conditions will return for all sites. Winds will continue to be light through most of the day, with a slight increase through the afternoon. Isolated convection may be possible this afternoon along the Coast and across the Victoria Crossroads; however,confidence is too low to include any precipitation in the TAFs.
Short Term - Today Through Wednesday
High pressure will remain anchored to the north of the area through the short term forecast period, keeping us mostly dry with warm temperatures and weak onshore flow. Heat index values will once again reach 105 to 109 today and Wednesday with a few locations briefly reaching Heat Advisory criteria. Moisture will increase through the day today as a mid level trough shifts west from the Gulf of Mexico into Deep South/South Texas. This could produce a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the coast and the Victoria Crossroads but with low confidence in other supporting factors, have maintained silent Probability of Precipitation through tonight. Moisture will continue to increase tonight and Wednesday as the trough continues to drift west along the southern periphery of the ridge, with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increasing to around 2.0 inches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday for the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and the Victoria Crossroads, with most showers being initiated along the the sea breeze.
Long Term - Wednesday Night through Monday
There's little change to the overall pattern with an upper low over mainland Mexico and a high over the high plains with ridging over the Western/Central CONUS and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard.
Generally dry conditions will prevail with the mid to upper levels starved of moisture. The slight chance for precipitation and a few isolated storms will come from lower level moisture combined with forcing from a couple of mid level disturbances in the form of a shortwave trough and an inverted trough.
The first feature will approach the S. TX Coast Thursday moving west and should exit our CWA by Friday night. Have slight PoP's each day peaking on Friday as the axis moves across S. TX and extended into Saturday to account for some energy on the backside of the feature.
This will be immediately followed by an inverted trough but forcing is minimal so have kept minimal PoP's each day heading into next week. Uncertainty increases towards the end of the period so will continue to monitor and adjust forecast as needed but for now have gone with the NBM.
The main concern will be the heat. Mostly sunny conditions will allow for ample surface heating combined with low level moisture will lead to heat indices each day of 105-110. Please use caution, remember to hydrate and limit outdoor activities wherever possible.
Generally dry conditions will continue through the week, with isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming possible each afternoon beginning Wednesday. Weak onshore flow will increase to weak to moderate by the weekend.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories