Marine Weather Net

Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

SUNDAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ275 Forecast Issued: 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Today...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: East 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. Showers Until Late Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers Late.
Tonight...Northeast Winds Around 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Seas Around 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 4 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Evening.
Sunday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms, Mainly In The Morning.
Sunday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds.
Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 6 Feet At 7 Seconds.
Monday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally To 8 Feet. Wave Detail: East 6 Feet At 8 Seconds.
Tuesday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally To 6 Feet.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet, Occasionally To 5 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648am CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Long Term
(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216am CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Key Messages:

- High (80%) chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 7 days (50% chance during the next 2 days) over portions of the Gulf of Mexico

- There is the increasing potential for minor coastal flooding along the Coastal Bend

Not much has changed pattern wise over the next week. The tropical cyclone will be deepening if the models are right in the south central part of the Gulf/Bay of Campeche. The cyclone will move to the east over the weekend will be in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula by mid to late week (see NHC for official forecast). As the cyclone moves east, the surface ridge along the west shore of Hudson Bay noses south into South Texas, pushing drier weather (Min RH Mon- Wednesday will be 25 to 40%). Aloft (500 mb) The western ridge begins to build into the central US during the early part of next week, allowing the highs to be in the lower to mid 90s. However, temperatures begin to cool going into the end of the week. The highs look to reach mid 80s to lower 90s, but the low will be dropping into the lower 60s with a 60-70% Chance that they drop below 60°F by Thursday or Friday in the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads.

With the tropical cyclone development, the wave models and the predictive tide model (P-ETTS) show evidence of minor coastal flooding increasing. Wave models are showing 7 second swell period on Monday, and 8 to 9 second swell periods on Tuesday through Thursday. P-ETTS is showing that high tide, which roughly occurs 00z to 03z, depending on the day, will continue to increase to over 2 feet MSL through Tuesday evening. With the expectation that the swells continue at 8-9 seconds through Thursday, will expect that we could see minor coastal flooding into the middle or end of next week as well.

Marine
Issued at 216am CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Expect a more moderate east to northeast flow today with scattered showers continuing. By Sunday, a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will begin to become more organized and will result in increased waves, especially over the offshore waters. As the low moves east in the Gulf this week, away from the middle Texas coast, northeasterly flow will diminish to weak to moderate levels. Long period swells will persist through the early part of the week.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.