Marine Weather Net

Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SATURDAY

SE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SATURDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUNDAY

SE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ275 Forecast Issued: 344 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Waves 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 10 Feet.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Waves 8 To 11 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 14 Feet. Patchy Fog In The Morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves 9 To 12 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 15 Feet.
Sunday...Southeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 9 To 12 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 15 Feet, Subsiding To 8 To 10 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 13 Feet In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 7 To 9 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 11 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening.
Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves 6 To 8 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 10 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Waves Around 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves Around 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Wednesday...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves Around 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots. Waves 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
349pm CDT Fri April 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER
Marine
.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 347pm CDT Fri April 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to high probability of Wind Advisory conditions across Victoria Crossroads Saturday

-High risk of rip currents through Saturday evening

The previous forecast is expected to remain on track through tomorrow night. A mid to upper level disturbance will be moving across the Central Plains tonight into Saturday. Some of associated shortwaves will continue to move through the area during this time as well. There will be moderate instability in the region though PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will remain around normal levels until around 12Z Sunday. The other caveat is the higher CIN values until the late evening hours of Saturday. This will likely limit any convection during the day, though showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over night by Sunday morning. Storm Prediction Center did include the northwestern portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) in a marginal risk for severe weather which will likely happen towards the end of the period like previously mentioned.

An associated surface low is expected to develop tomorrow which will enhance the tightening of the pressure gradient over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads during the day which will likely lead to Wind Advisory conditions across those areas with the higher confidence being in the Victoria Crossroads (~70-85%). During the early evening hours, the tight pressure gradient will shift out west potentially leading to similar conditions over the Brush Country. These conditions will also contribute to Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Gulf Waters through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated even though the winds are expected to drop off by Sunday.

Conditions will remain humid tonight with lows in the 70s expected. High temperatures to the east will be in the mid 80s with upper 90s out west due to less cloud cover.

Long Term
(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 347pm CDT Fri April 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday across the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, then a low to medium chance through the remainder of next week.

- Low to medium chance of minor coastal flooding and a moderate to high rip current risk through middle of next week.

An upper level trough will be moving eastward across the region Sunday and will combine with sufficient moisture, moderate low level convergence, increasing upper level diffluence and instability to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across S TX. Chances are low to medium (20-50%) with the better chances expected across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads. Highest chances will be across the Hill Country to the Houston area. Farther south, the capping inversion will likely inhibit development, thus the lower (10-20%) chances.

Severe weather is not anticipated for Sunday due to unfavorable conditions (mainly the cap), but can not be ruled out across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads due to proximity to more favorable dynamics.

A series of short waves will keep rain chances in the forecast through next week, but a capping inversion will keep the chances low to medium (20-30%).

Breezy to windy south to southeast winds Sunday morning are forecast to decrease through the day with generally weak to moderate onshore winds the remainder of the week. Lows in the 70s and highs in the 80s east to 90s west will persist through the extended period.

Due to strong southeasterly winds across the gulf waters this weekend combined with large seas and long period swells around 9 seconds, minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches may occur during times of high tide. This is possible through mid week, then the swells are forecast to decrease.

Marine
Issued at 347pm CDT Fri April 26 2024

The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning in response to a persistent strong onshore flow across the marine zones with occasional gusts up to 35 knots possible. Winds may weaken slightly tonight, but will quickly ramp up by early Saturday with seas remaining elevated. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the latter portions of Saturday night/Sunday morning. Strong onshore flow Sunday morning is expected to weaken through Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected by Monday and will persist through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily Sunday through the upcoming week.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.