Marine Weather Net

Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 20 - 60 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THURSDAY

N
WINDS
20
KNOTS

THURSDAY NIGHT

NE
WINDS
25
KNOTS

FRIDAY

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ275 Forecast Issued: 329 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
Tonight...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting North Late In The Night. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Patchy Drizzle.
Thursday...North Wind Near 20 Knots Increasing To 25 To 30 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet Building To 7 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet In The Afternoon. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 25 To 30 Knots. Seas 9 To 11 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 14 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...Northeast Wind 20 To 25 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 8 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 13 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Friday Night...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To Around 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Saturday...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
Sunday...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.
Sunday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming Southwest 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting North In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Monday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
329 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible overnight and again on Thursday. A strong secondary front will push through the region Thursday morning with strong to very strong winds developing and continuing through Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bays and coastal waters Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. A Gale Watch is then in effect Thursday evening/night. Rain chances will come to an end Thursday night. Strong to moderate northeast flow Friday. Wind will become weak to moderate onshore by Saturday, as surface high pressure moves east. Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist Saturday night and Sunday as an upper level disturbance approaches the Southern Plains. This upper disturbance will contribute to isolated to scattered showers Sunday. A weak frontal boundary will move across the Waters Monday followed by drier conditions and weak to moderate offshore flow.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
609pm CST Wednesday Feb 19 2020

Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday Night
Overall...damp, cold and cloudy conditions will persist through the short-term period.

Overrunning pattern that allowed for patchy light rain and drizzle to develop across the region today will continue overnight with periods of reduced visibility also developing. By Thursday morning, reinforcing high pressure will push a secondary/deeper front through the area weakening the overrunning pattern and bringing chances for isolated to scattered showers. However, rainfall should remain fairly minimal during this timeframe with rainfall amounts totaling to a quarter of an inch or less. This surge in high pressure will lead to breezy/windy conditions to develop across the area Thursday morning along with strong CAA. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s, with high temperatures on Thursday struggling to get out of the 50s. Precipitation is forecast to come to an end from west to east by Thursday evening across inland locations.

Minor coastal flooding continues to be possible along area beaches Thursday evening into Thursday night with both ETSS and ESTOFS indicating tide levels exceeding the 2.0 feet MSL threshold.

Long Term - Friday through Wednesday
The GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) deterministic NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) model runs are generally consistent with a progressive upper pattern during the period, with the CWA under/east of an upper ridge axis Friday/Saturday, followed by increasing synoptic scale ascent over the CWA Saturday night/Sunday associated with an upper disturbance predicted to move across the SRN Plains/TX. Expect with the combination of the upper forcing/moisture to contribute to isolated/scattered showers over the ERN CWA Sunday/Monday. Drier conditions Monday night through the remainder of the period. Unclear whether the cumulative effect of Ekman forcing will contribute to coastal flooding Friday.

Marine Discussion
Isolated to scattered showers will remain possible overnight and again on Thursday. A strong secondary front will push through the region Thursday morning with strong to very strong winds developing and continuing through Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the bays and coastal waters Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. A Gale Watch is then in effect Thursday evening/night. Rain chances will come to an end Thursday night. Strong/moderate northeast flow Friday. Onshore flow/increasing moisture Saturday. The combination of an upper disturbance and greater moisture will contribute to isolated/scattered showers Sunday/Monday. Drier conditions/weak to moderate offshore flow Monday night/Tuesday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 9am to 3pm CST Thursday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.