Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River Marine Forecast
|Today...North Winds 20 To 30 Knots, With Gusts To 35 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet. Rain Showers In The Morning, Then Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...North Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Saturday...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Northeast 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Tuesday...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
| Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
311 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022
A cold front moves through early this morning with Gale conditions likely, therefore a Gale Warning is in effect. Adverse marine conditions will persist through Saturday morning before much improved conditions take over Saturday afternoon through early next week. Rain showers continue to become more widespread and will persistent through much of the afternoon before tapering off by sunset at the latest.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
349am CST Fri Jan 28 2022
Short Term - Today Through Saturday
cold front swings through the region early this morning and will bring light to moderate rain through early this afternoon, falling temperatures, and gusty northerly winds.
Sporadic rain and drizzle continues to fall across Deep South Texas with more blossoming to our north. All of that heads south through the morning and early afternoon. Rain is expected to be over by Noon for much of the Northern Ranchlands and 3pm for the Rio Grande Valley. Rainfall totals of 0.10" to 0.50" are expected across much of the region. Temperatures range from the lower 50s in the Northern Ranchlands to the lower 60s in the Rio Grande Valley as of 3:00 AM. However, mid-afternoon temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower to middle 50s in the Rio Grande Valley and hold steady, maybe rebound a degree or two, in the Northern Ranchlands. Add in the wind and there could be a few instances of wind chills in the lower to middle 40s this afternoon. Speaking of winds, they will be quite gusty due to a strong pressure gradient along and immediately behind the cold front thanks to a 1034mb high sliding in from the north; there will also be a 35 to 40 knot jet at 925mb that enhances the winds along the immediate coast and over the Gulf of Mexico. While a few gusts up to 40 mph are expected for a good portion of the region, don't think they'll be frequent enough to issue a Wind Advisory away from the coast. However, this will be something that needs to be monitored this morning with the strongest winds expected between 7AM to 3PM this afternoon.
The 1034 mb high settles near the region later tonight and will help clear our skies and calm our winds. This allows temperatures in the Brush Country and Brooks/Kenedy Ranches to tumble to near freezing early Saturday morning. Not enough confidence for the time duration needed to issue a Freeze Warning at this time, but trends will be monitored in case we see winds go calmer earlier than currently forecast. The rest of the region will wake up to the middle to upper 30s to lower 40s. With high pressure overhead and a drier northwesterly flow aloft, we expect abundant sunshine Saturday as temperatures rebound back into the middle 60s.
Long Term - Saturday Night through Thursday
A pretty shallow 500 mb ridge will build over the Rio Grande Valley out ahead of an approaching closed low moving east out of the southern Cali/NW Mex region Sat Night into Sun. This closed low will move into central TX around midday Monday and will pull some pretty decent moisture levels northwards over the eastern half of TX. The better moisture values associated with this closed low look to miss most of the Rio Grande Valley with the best values remaining concentrated along the lower TX coastline and across the offshore waters. This closed low will exit TX Monday Night allowing a relatively zonal 500 mb flow to prevail over the region through Tues Night. Wednesday and Thurs, a very broad and potent 500 mb trough will dig into the central Plains States. This will allow a pretty strong cold front to move through the Rio Grande Valley late Wednesday Night/early Thurs morning resulting in a pretty serious cool down for Thurs. Some pretty limited moisture advection occurs with this next cold front which may result in some low end probability of precipitation towards the end of the forecast period.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) models show good agreement for temps and probability of precipitation up through next Tues. The models then get a little bit shakier for next Wednesday and Thurs as the GFS is a little bit faster in the frontal passage versus the ECMWF. Overall forecast confidence in the longer range period is generally above average.
ow through Saturday): The cold front is still on schedule to move through the coastal waters between by 7 AM. Pressure gradient strengthens steadily with gale conditions, frequent gusts 35-40 knots, developing by sunrise and continuing through the morning. The gradient tapers off north to south with gales becoming less frequent as we head into the afternoon. The southern waters are likely to see occasional gale-force gusts through 3 pm. Small Craft Advisories will replace the Gale Warning later today with adverse conditions persisting over the Gulf waters Saturday through early Saturday. Improving conditions are expected Saturday afternoon.
Saturday Night through Tuesday Night: The PGF will remain relatively weak Sat Night into Sunday as the center of the surface ridge shifts eastwards over the northern Gulf of Mex allowing for lower winds and seas. As the 500 mb closed low approaches from the west and develops the surface low pressure system over the central Plains States early next week, the PGF will then restrengthen once more pushing the S-SE flow and the associated seas back up towards SCA (Small Craft Advisory) territory Mon/Monday Night. The PGF will then weaken once again as the next cold front pushes southwards towards the TX coastline Tues.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ256-257-351.
Wind Advisory from 7am this morning to 3pm CST this afternoon for TXZ256-257-351.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9am this morning to 6pm CST this evening for TXZ256-257-351.
GM...Gale Warning from 6am this morning to noon CST today for GMZ130- 132-135.
Gale Warning from 6am this morning to 3pm CST this afternoon for GMZ150-155-170-175.