Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots Early This Morning. Seas 6 To 9 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 11 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Drizzle.|
|Thursday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Drizzle Early In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Drizzle In The Afternoon.|
|Thursday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots Late In The Evening, Then Becoming South After Midnight Becoming Southwest Early In The Morning. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Drizzle.|
|Friday...Southwest Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southeast Late In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.|
|Monday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet, With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
537pm CST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 210pm CST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
Fairly uneventful sensible weather appears to be in store for the long-term, with above-normal temperatures for early December predominating. The main polar-jet storm track remains far away, across the northern tier of the CONUS. Subtropical ridging builds in the from the south on Friday, with the 500-mb high center pretty much overhead by Sunday. The ridging aloft thereafter flattens to a weaker zonal flow, though this doesn't appear to change our weather too much.
Latest model guidance suggests that two cold fronts will essentially "die on our doorstep", that is, stall or wash out just north of our CWA, during the long-term period. One of these is forecast for Saturday, with another around the middle of next week...most likely Tuesday night or Wednesday. NAM/GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) all want to sag a front into south-central Texas during the day on Saturday, perhaps settling across a Laredo toward Corpus Christi axis by evening. However, all three models also reverse its progress pretty quickly. This makes sense, given that the front will have little upper-level support and the fact that it will fighting against the ridging aloft mentioned above. The most robust rain chances appear to be on Saturday, as some moisture pools ahead of the front. Not seeing a whole lot in terms of a lifting mechanism unless the front actually reaches our latitude, though. So, confidence is not high on the rain chances for Saturday, which are generally 20-30% along and east of Highway 281/I-69C and across the northern tier counties. Blended in WPC PoP guidance to undercut NBM a bit, which matches up well with neighboring office. NBM thunder probabilities are up to 15-20%, but not buying this yet, either.
Rain chances peter out Sunday as high temps again reach the low- mid 80s. Monday still looks breezy as the pressure gradient tightens due to a surface low emerging into the lee of the Rockies. However, the low is not forecast to be as deep as it was previously, so chances of a Wind Advisory for that day are decreasing.
Global models are also now trending slower/weaker with a front for the middle of next week. Will continue to lean toward the NBM in this timeframe.
Issued at 210pm CST Wednesday Nov 30 2022
Now through Thursday night...The cold front cleared the region this morning and brought gusty winds and high seas along with it. As of now (2:50PM CST), Buoy 42020 has just reached Gale conditions. So I will let the Gale Warning ride a few hours longer and leave it to expire at 6PM CST. Small Craft Advisories will follow the Gale Warning as seas are running between 7 to 10 feet with sustained winds over 25 knots. Winds are forecast to subside to less than 20 knots by Thursday morning. However, seas will take a while longer to calm, so anticipate Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf waters to linger through at least Thursday evening with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre Thursday into Thursday night.
Friday through Tuesday...Moderate SE winds of 10-15 knots prevail on Friday before backing more easterly on Saturday as a front approaches from the north (but likely does not enter our coastal waters). Meanwhile, moderate seas of 3-5 ft. can be expected through Saturday. Beginning on Sunday, winds veer more SE again and freshen, as modest pressure falls in the Plains states tighten the gradient. Conditions potentially becoming hazardous on the Gulf waters by Sunday night, requiring Small Craft Advisories (SCA), or Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC), at a minimum. SCEC may be needed on the Laguna Madre by Monday as well. SCEC/SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions persist into Tuesday.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX... through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.
High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.
High Surf Advisory until noon CST Thursday for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135.
Gale Warning until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ150-155-170-175.
Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST Thursday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.