Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tonight...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South Early In The Morning. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots Early In The Morning. Seas 3 To 4 Feet.|
|Friday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots Becoming South Early In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday...South Winds Around 10 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots Becoming South After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southeast In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 15 Knots Becoming South Early In The Morning. Seas 2 To 4 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
244pm CDT Wednesday July 6 2022
Short Term - Tonight Through Friday
(Now through Thursday Night): Will be playing the persistence game as expansive 500mb ridge which is taking up real- estate from the Western Atlantic and the SE States across the entire State of Texas is not expected to move anytime soon. The 594mb high will continue to provide seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures and humidity and little to no rainfall the next 36 hours. A weak mid-level disturbance continues to be shown by the latest model suite to move west of the Lower Texas coast Thursday morning. With the mean layered (850-300mb) RH around 40-50 percent I would not expect anything more then 10 percent chance of a shower or a rouge thunderstorm. Streamer showers may be more present over the coastal waters from this disturbance early Thursday with a few possible surviving a few dozen miles inland before dissipating. Anyways, do not expect much from this disturbance but do expect temperatures, Thursday afternoon, to once again range from 90 degrees at SPI to upper 90s to lower 100s inland. Heat indices also to range from 105 to 110 especially along and east of I-69 C. Overnight lows remain right near seasonal averages 75-80 degrees.
One slight change may be less wind Thursday as lower pressure over the Southern Plains is shown not to be as low weakening the pressure gradient. 925-700mb layered wind is below 20 knots the majority of the day which should allow for less gustiness. Model guidance also on board lowering winds by a few mph.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday Night): Mid-level high pressure will remain the dominate weather driver for the long term period. This will keep hot and fairly dry conditions in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. At the surface, high pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico and Sierra Madre Lee side low pressure will lead to breezy conditions, especially near the coast, each afternoon.
Temperatures will remain hot through the period with afternoon highs generally in the upper 90s to 100s. Heat indices will be the main concern as we head into the weekend and early next week. These "feels like" temperatures will likely prompt Heat Advisories, especially for areas in the Rio Grande Plains into the Upper Rio Grande Valley.
Now through Thursday Night): Weak surface high pressure extending over much of the Gulf of Mexico remains in place through Friday morning. A persistent gentle to occasional moderate southeast wind and a slight sea can be expected through Thursday night. Diurnal thermal low driven winds will allow for slightly stronger wind across the Laguna Madre Thursday afternoon moving offshore during the overnight hours. A weak mid level disturbance moving across the coastal waters overnight and Thursday morning may lead to a few streamer showers. Most of the showers should remain over the Gulf waters but can not rule out a few working across Port Isabel to Port Mansfield.
(Friday through Monday): High pressure remains over the western Gulf of Mexico maintaining light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast. However, winds over the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters may be breezy enough in the afternoon to warrant Small Craft Exercise Caution daily due to afternoon enhanced pressure gradients.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories