Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River Marine Forecast
|Today...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts To Around 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Isolated Rain Showers In The Morning.|
|Tonight...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 6 To 9 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 10 Feet.|
|Monday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Diminishing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.|
|Monday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Showers Likely And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Diminishing To 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming North 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
945 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020
A cold front has cleared the area, bringing strong north winds in its wake. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through today and into Monday across the Gulf waters as high pressure builds southward. Conditions will briefly improve Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure moves over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. East to southeast winds return Tuesday and increase to moderate to strong levels Tuesday night and Wednesday as the next low pressure area develops over Northeast Mexico. The next front may move through the region towards the end of the week.
Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527am CST Sunday Jan 19 2020
Short Term - Now through Monday
A cold front has made its way through Deep South Texas with high pressure quickly building from north to south. This has led to gusty north winds and much drier air working southward. Quite a bit of convection has developed south of the river early this morning, but rain chances are quickly ending for the Rio Grande Valley as the front moves away from the area.
The forecast today will be much cooler and breezy as Cold Air Advection continues through a good part of the day, especially across the lower Rio Grande Valley. This means high temperatures will occur this morning in the mid 60s and gradually cooling into the mid to upper 50s through the afternoon. If clouds can clear out west in the Upper Valley and ranchlands, temperatures may be able to warm back up a few degrees this afternoon. Monday will also be a cool day with continued light northerly flow, however, Cold Air Advection should shut off by this point. Sunshine should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 60s for most locations. Rain chances will be low to near zero.
Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
500mb ridge across west Texas Monday will move eastward across the east-central United States Tuesday. After Monday...the global models begin to diverge with the GFS is faster than the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) bringing a 500mb shortwave trough into the south-central U.S. Tuesday. The GFS brings low to mid level moisture across the state faster as a result. By Wednesday...the global models appear better in agreement but the GFS progs a broad 500mb trough developing across the western U.S. and the ECMWF progs a deeper upper level trough across the south-central United States. At the surface...high pressure across the east- central U.S. Monday will shift eastward across the eastern half of the country Tuesday. Low pressure will develop across northwest Texas Wednesday with high pressure across the northeast United States. The rest of the forecast period depends on the timing and location of the next frontal system developing across Texas Thursday. The ECMWF is faster than the GFS and brings a cold front through south Texas Thurs afternoon while the GFS is slower and brings the front through south Texas Fri morning. Therefore...the ECMWF brings cooler and drier air into the CWA faster than the GFS so there are considerable differences in temperatures and POPs Thurs night into Friday. Will lean towards the NBM guidance for the rest of the week into the weekend as the NBM is a good compromise between the GFS and ECMWF for now.
Marine - Now through Monday
A cold front has brought strong north winds across the coastal waters this morning. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for the bay waters until 6pm CST today and midnight for the Gulf waters. Though winds should slightly improve tonight, persistent NE flow will maintain hazardous seas at 6 to 9 feet through Monday. As surface high pressure moves over the Northern Gulf, the gradient will gradually weaken late on Monday.
Monday night through Thursday...Light east winds will prevail across the coastal waters Monday night before increasing Tuesday as surface high pressure across the east-central United States Monday moves eastward Tuesday and the pressure gradient increases across the western Gulf of Mexico. Moderate east to southeast winds Tuesday will veer to the southeast Tues night and increase slightly as low pressure develops across the Texas panhandle. Moderate to strong southeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coast Tues night into Wednesday. Winds will veer to the south Wednesday night and diminish slightly Thursday as a cold front moves through northwest Texas Thurs afternoon. Small craft advisories will be needed for the offshore waters Monday night through Tuesday night for high seas and Wednesday for strong winds and high seas. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) offshore may need to be extended Wednesday night through Thurs night for high seas.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6pm CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ150-155- 170-175.