Port Mansfield, TX to the Rio Grande River Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Saturday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sunday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 7 Feet.|
|Monday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots Shifting North In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots Increasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Feet. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Diminishing To Around 5 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Feet. Chance Of Showers.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet. Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Wednesday...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots Becoming 15 To 25 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 12 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
Synopsis for Baffin Bay to Rio Grande out 60 nm: GMZ100|
1206 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020
Marine conditions will gradually improve into the weekend as high pressure settles over the area. As this high pressure shifts east, a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow will return at the surface. A slight uptick in winds and seas will occur Sunday into Sunday night as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the next cold front due on Monday. This front is expected to be weak, with little impact on the marine conditions. Hazardous winds and seas are expected to return mid week due to a strong surge of northerly winds.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
248am CST Sat Feb 22 2020
Short Term - Now through Sunday
Mid level ridging moves overhead from the west today supporting subsidence aloft. Surface high pressure across the region extending into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this morning will move eastward through the period. Satellite imagery indicate a few passing mid to high level clouds overhead and some lingering low clouds just off the lower Texas coast early this morning. Temperatures across the area are in the 40s with light winds. Today will be mild with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 60s as light east to southeast winds develop. Partly cloudy skies are expected this morning but mostly cloudy skies should return this afternoon into this evening. A warm front will advance northward across the CWA tonight into Sunday morning. Low tempeatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50s to around 60. However, temperatures tonight, especially near the coast, may remain steady or even warm a few degrees before sunrise as the warm front approaches. Some patchy fog will also be possible across portions of the northern ranchlands late tonight as the warm front moves northward. Sunday will be breezy and warm with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the area under a mix of sun and clouds. The combination of strengthening surface low pressure across west Texas and high pressure over the Gulf will support breezy south to southeast winds near the coast.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
Low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains and heads northeast as a weak cold front swings through Texas on Monday. This brings the best chance of rain through the long term, especially across coastal counties. Generally WSW flow aloft turns more zonal behind the frontal passage, allowing a weak mid-level disturbance to progress eastward while a weak coastal surface trough tries to develop across the western Gulf of Mexico, bringing an additional chance of rainfall across the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday afternoon. Have generally kept POPs under 20 percent for any rainfall Monday or Tuesday. Strong high pressure settles south through the Plains and to the southern border the rest of the week with a reinforcing surge of cool and dry air arriving Wednesday into Thursday. Mid-level flow also turns northwesterly as the mid-level trough axis swings offshore.
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday warm into the 80s. With the northeasterly surge of cooler air on Wednesday, temperatures drop below normal for the remainder of the long term period. Lows Thursday morning may dip into the 30s across the ranchlands and upper valley. Relative humidity values drop into the teens on Wednesday afternoon, with some elevated 20 foot winds. This could become a fire weather concern if winds increase any more than current guidance. Even drier air is expected on Thursday, with lighter winds.
.MARINE (Now through Sunday): Light winds prevail along the lower Texas coast early this morning. Buoy020 reported east-northeast winds of 6 knots with gusts near 12 knots and seas around 5.6 feet at 0220 CST/ 0820 UTC. High pressure across the area will gradually move east through the period. Light to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas are expected today and tonight. The gradient strengthens along the lower Texas coast on Sunday allowing an uptick in winds and seas. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be likely on the Laguna Madre and the offshore Gulf waters (20-60 NM) on Sunday.
Sunday Night through Friday: Low pressure deepens across the Plains and works northeast, bringing a cold front across the lower Texas coastal waters on Monday. Expect elevated seas to subside later Monday into Wednesday as high pressure begins to build. Strong high pressure surges southward with reinforcing northerly winds on Wednesday, building seas Wednesday morning and creating hazardous marine conditions into Thursday. As high pressure settles across the Gulf of Mexico, expect marine conditions to improve into Friday, with very favorable seas to start the weekend.
NOAA Brownsville TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories