Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog Late In The Morning. |
| Tonight...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Patchy Fog In The Evening, Then Areas Of Fog After Midnight. |
| Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. |
| Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough. |
| Thursday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. |
| Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. |
| Friday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting West In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. |
| Friday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. |
| Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy. |
| Saturday Night...South Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 337am CDT Sunday April 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TER Marine .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 219am CDT Sunday April 28 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of severe weather today (Victoria Crossroads) and Monday (all CWA). - Coastal Flood Advisory and High risk of rip currents through this evening. A strong shortwave trough will continue to transition from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region through the period with some associated energy making its way across the state. A line of showers and thunderstorms currently crossing the Edwards Plateau is expected to extend southeastward through the day today into our CWA (County Warning Area) leading to a medium chance (30-60%) of showers/thunderstorms. Although the current activity is forecast to weaken as it drifts southward into our area, there will still be enough instability (SBCAPE over 2500 J/kg) and little capping at the surface for some of these storms to become strong to severe at times. The main hazards associated to any strong storm that does develop will be damaging winds (DCAPE over 1000 J/kg) and hail. Convection is expected to start across the northwestern tier of the CWA closer to daybreak, and transition eastward reaching the Victoria Crossroads by mid to late morning. Although CAMs are only showing isolated convection over the Crossroads by the afternoon, deterministic models are indicating a very unstable airmass and no capping in place. Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal risk of severe weather that clips into Victoria County through tonight. Convective chances will decrease overnight as we lose forcing, with only a slight chance remaining across the east. However, chances will increase again on Monday areawide mainly due to the combination of enough available moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.5-1.7") and a moderately unstable airmass in place (SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). On Monday the cap will also be weak to non, therefore Storm Prediction Center has maintained the entire CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Again, the main threats will be for damaging winds and hail. But, having said that, models have been trending drier probably due to not enough forcing. Aside from all of that, there are still some coastal and marine hazards that will persist today, including a Coastal Flood Advisory and a High risk of rip currents. Conditions though are expected to improve by later this evening, as winds weaken offshore and the seas subside. Nonetheless, a Moderate risk of rip currents will remain in effect across area beaches through Monday evening. Expect warm temperatures with highs in the low 80s to mid 90s today and tomorrow, although tomorrow will be a degree or so warmer. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s areawide. Long Term (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 219am CDT Sunday April 28 2024 Key Messages: - Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week - Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek A more zonal flow will develop Monday night and persist into the week. Moisture and warm air will continue to stream into the area with southeast flow which could lead to diurnal showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. A brief break in convection is still expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure noses into the area. A series of shortwaves will move across South Texas beginning Wednesday evening , leading to a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the work week. The persistent southeasterly flow will continue to help push long period swell ashore through the middle of this week. Minor coastal flooding and a high rip current risk will be possible through Wednesday, when swell periods should diminish. Temperatures will be warm through the upcoming week, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s daily across South Texas. I hate to bring it up this early, but it looks as though heat index values will reach 100-105 across the Rio Grande Plains through early this week. Some relief may be in sight as a weak cold front approaches the area over the weekend. Model guidance isn't giving us much hope for much cooler conditions, but drier air may filter in as the cold front fizzles out over or just north of the area leading to cooler apparent temperatures. We will have to wait and see how this front actually behaves. Marine Issued at 219am CDT Sunday April 28 2024 Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible through this morning. Seas will remain elevated through Monday morning, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect. Onshore flow becomes weak to moderate tonight, persisting at these levels through the end of the week. There is a 15-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters through mid week. NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7am CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. |
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