Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog Late In The Morning.|
|Tonight...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Patchy Fog In The Evening, Then Areas Of Fog After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough.|
|Thursday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting West In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy.|
|Saturday Night...South Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1236am CDT Wednesday September 28 2022
(Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 218pm CDT Tuesday September 27 2022
-Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding this week -Increased Rip Current Risk this week -Dangerous boating conditions this week
The main message in the long term is concerning coastal hazards as Major Hurricane Ian churns in the southeastern Gulf. Even though Ian is not forecast to directly impact Texas, increased period swells up to around 12 seconds and increased waves up to around 12 ft are expected to result in hazardous beach conditions including the increased risk for rip currents and minor to moderate coastal flooding. The longer swell periods, in combination with increased wave heights, will result in significant wave run up. Water is expected to reach the dunes and beach access roads may become inundated as well as low-lying areas and structures near the immediate coast. As the swells and waves slowly subside towards the end of the week hazardous conditions may linger over the weekend. So it's important to pay attention to the forecast and be aware of beach conditions before you go.
Jumping back to the overall synoptic pattern for the long term period starts out with a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest, ridging over the Central CONUS and Hurricane Ian over the southeastern states. The pattern doesn't change much as the ridge gets blocked in by both systems.
One interesting feature that models are forecasting is a storm over the eastern Pacific south of Baja. There's a lot of uncertainty with the track of this feature but the GFS (Global Forecast System) wants to bring the remnant energy towards South Texas early next week. So far the GEFS and ECENS don't have it going that far east and is split on the track of the system. Not surprisingly being this far out so will have to continue monitoring it but not going to put much stock into the GFS solution at this time.
As far as the overall weather pattern, afternoon temperatures throughout the week will range mostly in the 80s with lows in the 50s-60s under mostly clear skies.
Issued at 412am CDT Tuesday September 27 2022
Dry conditions will prevail through early next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected Wednesday through Thu Night as a result of the combination of moderate flow and high seas due to Hurricane Ian in the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate northeast flow will become weak to moderate Saturday then weak by Sunday.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10am CDT Friday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.