Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog After Midnight. Visibility 1 Nm Or Less After Midnight.|
|Thursday...South Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. Visibility 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.|
|Thursday Night...East Wind Around 10 Knots Shifting Northeast After Midnight. Bays Smooth To Slightly Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms May Be Severe In The Evening.|
|Friday...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.|
|Friday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Saturday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Around 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...West Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Sunday Night...West Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming Southwest Up To 5 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Monday...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting Northeast In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
935 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020
Generally weak onshore flow is expected for the rest of tonight and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening, as a cold front approaches. Some storms may become strong to severe Thursday evening. The front will move offshore Thursday night and result in weak to moderate northeast flow that will persist through Friday. The front will retreat north as a warm front Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday through Saturday night as another cold front is expected to move offshore early Sunday. Expect much drier, yet weak to moderate offshore flow behind the cold front through Sunday night before a reinforcing stronger cold front comes through Monday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627pm CDT Wednesday April 8 2020
Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday Night
Tonight, radar output depicts isolated convection just to the NW of the CWA. Have isolated convection in the forecast for LaSalle county and portions of McMullen and Webb counties until 03z Thursday. Anticipate that increasing CIN will preclude significant activity afterward. NAM deterministic output suggest a thermodynamic pattern conducive to patchy/areas of fog overnight, over the ERN CWA. Thursday and Thursday night, deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian suggest that the frontal boundary, currently over NRN TX, will enter the CWA Thursday afternoon. In advance of the front, the NAM predicts SBCAPE values 3000-3500 J/kg, along with strong 0-6km vertical shear. Expect the front to force parcels to their LFC, resulting in strong/severe convection. Concur with Storm Prediction Center with regard to at least a Slight Risk for severe convection Thursday afternoon/evening.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday night)... Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend as onshore flow returns Friday along with weak isentropic lift and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values well above average, exceeding 1.5". An upper-level trough dives deep from the Great Plains into Baja California Friday night and shifts eastward into the Southern Plains through Saturday night. Ahead and along the boundary that comes with the trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Saturday night. The greatest chance of deep convection will occur Saturday and over the northern half of the CWA, especially the Victoria Crossroads, where CAPE values are expected to range from 1500 to 2500 J/kg with weak CIN, and divergence aloft associated with the right entrance region of the jet stream. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook has the majority of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather Friday, with an increase in likelihood Saturday through Saturday night.
Following the boundary passage late Saturday night into Sunday morning, drier conditions dominate into early next week as a Canadian cold front plunges its way across the area very late Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures are expected to plummet to below normal Monday through Wednesday. However, the NBM temps seem to be a bit too high in comparison to the GFS and ECMWF, so I have lowered the temps by a few degrees to accommodate. These temps may need to be altered even more in future forecasts if confidence improves. Flow is expected to transition to more southeasterly beginning Wednesday night as a surface high moves eastward.
Lastly, ETSS data continues to show improving chances for minor coastal flooding during high tides from Thursday through Sunday, with each following day becoming more favorable. The high tide on Saturday is predicted to reach more than 2.5 feet above mean sea level.
Advection or radiational fog may occur over the bays/nearshore waters 06-15z Thursday. (The risk of advection fog will likely decrease as surface flow becomes S/SSW after 06z Thursday.) Scattered convection expected to develop late Thursday afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. Some storms may become strong to severe Thursday evening. Moderate northeast winds continue Friday following the cold front, before returning as a warm front late Friday into Saturday with possible SCEC conditions. Ample moisture near the front will fuel daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front sweeps offshore later in the weekend with additional thunderstorm chances. Expect much drier, yet weak to moderate offshore flow behind the cold front on Sunday. A stronger cold front Sunday night into Monday morning could generate SCEC to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through the early part of next week.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories