Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. Patchy Fog Late In The Morning.|
|Tonight...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. Patchy Fog In The Evening, Then Areas Of Fog After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Southwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Becoming North 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Wednesday Night...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Bays Choppy To Rough.|
|Thursday...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday...Northwest Wind 10 To 15 Knots Shifting West In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Friday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Saturday...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots Increasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy.|
|Saturday Night...South Wind Around 20 Knots. Bays Choppy To Occasionally Rough.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226pm CDT Sat May 21 2022
/Issued 709am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
AVIATION... A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals, with MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) cigs across CRP/VCT and VFR out west. A gradual return to VFR is expected around mid morning, before MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions develop once again this evening as a frontal boundary approaches the region from the north. Vicinity showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along the boundary late tonight into early Sunday morning. Winds will be gusty out of the south and southeast around 20-25 kts through this evening. As the front nears the region tonight, winds are expected to lighten up and shift eastward.
/Issued 449am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
Short Term - Today Through Sunday
The thunderstorm activity associated to a passing mid level disturbance across the region earlier in the night as finally cleared out of the area, and a slightly drier and more stable airmass has settled in.
Rain chances will remain limited across the area through most of the day today as weak ridging at the 500 mb level builds in. By this afternoon, however, the forecast becomes more unsettled as a trough crossing the Northern Plains sends a late season cold front across the state. This boundary is forecast to approach the northern parts of the CWA late tonight into early Sunday morning, before probably stalling as it nears the coast by the mid to late morning hours. Increased convergence ahead and along the boundary, in addition to a steady increase in Gulf moisture over the region (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.8-1.9") and a moderately to highly unstable airmass (SBCAPE ~2500-4000 J/kg) with little to no convective inhibition, will provide the setting for some strong to potentially isolated severe thunderstorms to develop and push through the region overnight. Latest CAM models indicate a line of thunderstorms developing over the Southern Plains tonight with the southern tip extending into portions of the northern CWA by early Sunday morning. Day 1 convective outlook from Storm Prediction Center has maintained northwestern portions of the Brush Country under a marginal risk for severe weather tonight. Rain and storm chances are expected to linger onto Sunday as the boundary stalls.
Hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices are in store for South Texas today, with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s along the coast to around 105 out west. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 7pm today across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices may exceed 110 degrees over the area under Advisory and may range between 105 to 109 degrees elsewhere. The temperature forecast for tonight and Sunday will be dependent on how far south the front is able to push through and the amount of cloud cover. But, in general, expect overnight lows in the 70s, with highs on Sunday ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s.
In addition to the heat, a High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect through at least Sunday morning owing to the combination of a strong onshore flow and long period swells moving in.
Long Term - Sunday Night through Friday
Rain chances will be on the increase Monday as another in a series of short wave troughs track across the region and taps into deepening moisture and an unstable environment. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Rio Grande Plains, Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads to scattered across the Coastal Bend. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) start to approach 2 inches and the cap is fairly weak on Monday. The only thing missing is a low level focus/boundary. Although, the sea breeze and any outflow boundaries from storms farther north could provide a focus for storms which strong storms could develop along.
By Monday night, models develop an area of low level moisture convergence as a strong mid level short wave trough tracks across S TX. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are forecast to increase to 2.3 inches across northern portions of the CWA with a moderately unstable environment still in place, but CIN values are also forecast to increase from the south. Feel the other environmental factors will be strong enough to overcome any weak capping inversion. Thus, TSRAs are expected to become numerous across all of S TX Monday night. The GFS forecast sounding also indicated a saturated profile with skinny CAPE across the northern CWA late Monday night/early Tuesday morning which is conducive for heavy rainfall. Given the lack of any significant rainfall recently, am not expecting any widespread flooding. However, localized flooding of low lying areas may be possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through Wednesday then decrease by Thursday as ridging builds across the region and brings a weak frontal boundary across S TX. Models are in pretty good agreement with a front moving through S TX, but differ on timing and strength as well as when the rain chances diminish. For now kept with the NBM which shows the boundary pushing through Thursday with drier and slightly cooler conditions filtering into S TX Thursday. But this will be brief as temps quickly warm up by Friday.
Hot and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday. This will lead to heat index values ranging from 100 to around 105 each afternoon through mid week.
Minor coastal flood potential should decrease this upcoming weak as astronomical tides decrease. However, the rip current risk may remain at moderate to high Sunday night with swell periods increasing to around 9 seconds.
Strong southeasterly flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through the mid morning hours today across the bays and through early this afternoon over the Gulf waters. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible. The flow will decrease to moderate to strong levels later this afternoon and remain at these levels overnight. Winds will shift eastward on Sunday and become weak to moderate as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along the boundary tonight through Sunday. Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected Monday through Wednesday with flow becoming northeasterly with the approach of a cold front mid to late next week. Advisory conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Wednesday.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening For the following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands... Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.
Heat Advisory until 7pm CDT this evening For the following zones: Duval...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Jim Wells... La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1pm CDT this afternoon For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.