Marine Weather Net

Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ235 Forecast Issued: 1020 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Rest Of Today...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy.
Monday...Southeast Wind Around 10 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy.
Monday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming East 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...East Wind Around 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...East Wind Around 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
1020 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

A weak to moderate onshore flow will occur today. Weak to moderate onshore flow continues Monday through Tuesday, before strengthening to moderate to strong levels and shifting northeasterly on Wednesday in response to a frontal boundary. Periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Flow will shift onshore and weaken to moderate levels by Friday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily starting Monday night and continue through Thursday night.
Area Forecast Discussion
...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1256pm CDT Sunday April 11 2021

Low clouds briefly moved into the LRD area early this morning. But these clouds are in the process of scattering out. Some thin cirrus will continue to move across the region today. Made only slight modifications to high temperatures for the coastal region today, raising them a couple of degrees.

Short Term - Today Through Monday
An upper level disturbance approaching Baja CA (GOES-16 WV imagery) is predicted (deterministic NAM/GFS/ECMWF) to move EWD across the SWRN CONUS/NRN Mexico border and approach the CWA by Monday afternoon. Another upper system is expected to move across the NRN Plains and contribute to the development/SWD movement of a cold front which is predicted to enter CNTRL TX Monday afternoon. Near/below normal PWAT (Precipitable Water) values expected over the CWA today. Near normal values areawide Monday. Significant CIN expected during the afternoon hours today and Monday. No precipitation expected today owing to lack of forcing and limited moisture. Despite approach of the upper system from the west, and the approach of the cold front, convection is not expected Monday. Moisture convergence along the front still north of the CWA before 00z Tuesday. Although increasing synoptic scale lift approaching from the west, elevated convection is not likely given dry conditions aloft. Coastal flooding is not expected during the period, and the risk of rip currents is expected to be low.

Long Term - Monday Night through Saturday
The long term period remains largely unchanged with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region, another low ejecting eastward from the East Coast and a third low forming over the Pacific NW. The latest model run still showing a Rex Block forming mid-week but it appears to be a little less impressive as the high pressure drifts further north putting more separation between the high and the low. This blocking pattern should break down by the end of the period.

Isolated thunderstorm and rain chances are possible as early as Monday night in response to an approaching cold front. The front is expected to arrive Tuesday before stalling out Tuesday afternoon. It will then linger over S. TX continuing rain and thunder probabilities each day through the end of the period. Several mid- level disturbances associated with the aforementioned front may help to push the boundary offshore sometime mid-week but confidence in timing is not good. The situation isn't helped by the persistent zonal flow and have decided to keep isolated chances in the forecast despite a weakening CAP due to the lack of forcing. Currently the best chance at convection looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon as the moisture profile improves with minimal CIN values and moderate CAPE, but that all depends on what this front decides to do. Hopefully with the next model run the NAM will lead to better confidence.

Daily highs will range from the mid 80s for the Coastal Bend to near 90 out West but slightly cooler temps will accompany FROPA as well as drier conditions. A persistent high over the Central Gulf during this period will keep us under the influence of onshore flow with mostly weak to moderate winds and low level moisture advection across S. TX leading to the cooler temps and cloud cover.

Marine Discussion

A transition from weak to moderate northeast flow to onshore flow expected today, as the surface ridge over ERN TX moves east. Weak to moderate onshore flow continues Monday through Tuesday, before strengthening to moderate to strong levels and shifting northeasterly on Wednesday in response to a frontal boundary. Periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Flow will shift onshore and weaken to moderate levels by Friday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily starting Monday night through Sunday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...None.