Bay and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Southwest Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting West In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tonight...North Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting East After Midnight. Bays Smooth.|
|Tuesday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Bays Smooth.|
|Tuesday Night...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Bays Choppy To Rough.|
|Wednesday...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots In The Afternoon. Bays Choppy To Rough.|
|Wednesday Night...North Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Bays Slightly Choppy To Occasionally Choppy.|
|Thursday...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Southeast In The Afternoon. Bays Smooth.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting South After Midnight. Bays Smooth.|
|Friday...Southwest Wind Around 5 Knots. Bays Smooth.|
|Friday Night...South Wind Around 5 Knots Shifting Southwest After Midnight. Bays Smooth.|
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
927 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020
A weak frontal boundary will move offshore this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected in advance of and along this boundary. Weak to moderate offshore flow and drier conditions are expected after frontal passage. However, winds will become onshore overnight and persist through Tuesday. Strong north winds are expected Tuesday night. As a result, Small Craft Advisory conditions will be likely for the bays. A Gale Watch is in effect for the gulf waters for the potential of frequent gusts to gale force. Seas are forecast to reach 6 to 10 feet after the frontal passage. Strong winds and hazardous seas will diminish and subside Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds across the area. Weak to moderate northeast winds Thursday will become mostly onshore by Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527am CST Monday Feb 24 2020
Short Term - Today Through Tuesday
A weak cold front was found exiting the Big Bend region early this morning and should be on track to clear our inland counties around the noon hour. Ahead of this front, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) were running about 150% of normal from CRP west to DRT. Saturated depths were largely confined to a stratus layer underneath a strong EML, but some shallow instability below this stable layer is leading to light showers at times east of the Brush Country. Expect this light precipitation to continue on/off until FROPA later this morning before shifting offshore through the afternoon ahead of markedly drier air. Although stratus will clear behind the front, a healthy stream of opaque cirriform clouds arriving with an upper jet will keep skies mostly cloudy through the day. Still, very dry westerly winds and anemic Cold Air Advection should make for another mild day region wide.
Lows tonight look to be tempered a bit from lingering high clouds, but these will depart by Tuesday morning ahead of another very mild day behind modest surface ridging. Although easterly flow resumes around midnight, little/no moisture return is foreseen. The NAM is opposite this thinking and develops widespread dense fog tonight along the coast, but this is being dismissed for now given such poor support from the drier SREF and HRRR. Otherwise, a pre-frontal trough and low-level thermal ridge will shove east through the afternoon in advance of a strong cold front diving through the Hill Country. This front and its northerly wind shift will likely sneak into our northernmost counties by late afternoon, but insufficient moisture should keep rain chances nil.
Long Term - Tuesday Night through Sunday
The front will push all the way through the coast and gulf waters Tuesday evening and overnight. Tightening of the gradient will lead to breezy to windy conditions, especially closer toward the coast and over the Gulf waters. A Gale Watch is currently in effect for late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning across the Gulf waters. There is potential for a Wind Advisory for the same period as 1km lapse rates remain rather steep with the strong winds at 925mb to mix down to the surface. Main focus for these stronger winds will mainly be for the coastal locations, especially over the barrier islands. GFS is coming in with Probability of Precipitation for just ahead of the front, but this may be focusing on increasing mid-level cloud coverage as model soundings show pretty dry conditions in the lower levels. Did, however, include silent Probability of Precipitation with the frontal passage early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, much drier and cooler conditions will filter in through Wednesday with strong CAA. Have temperatures cooled for Wednesday in the mid-50s to lower 60s, but this may be too warm as good mixing with the colder 925mb temps may keep temperatures struggling to break out of the 50s despite the clearing skies. Wednesday night is expected to be the coldest of the week with lows in the 30s for most inland locations, with a light freeze possible for northern locations from near Cotulla east toward Victoria Thursday morning. Winds will subside through Wednesday night and Thursday as surface high pressure settles overhead and slowly shifts east. Onshore flow should resume by Friday with a warming trend in store through the weekend. Onshore flow and moisture will increase late in the weekend with possible rain chances early next week, mainly for the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
The potential for elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday seem to continue to diminish as timing of low RH values and windy conditions is not overlapping as much as before. Will continue to monitor in future forecast packages.
Following weak to moderate onshore flow this morning, winds will turn offshore this afternoon behind a decaying cold front. Light showers are expected along and ahead of the front, before ending from west to east through the afternoon. Weak offshore winds turn easterly overnight and persist through Tuesday. Strong northerly winds are expected Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisories will be likely for the bays, with a Gale Watch in effect for the gulf waters for the potential of frequent gusts to gale. Seas are forecasted to reach 6 to 10 feet after the frontal passage. Strong winds and hazardous seas will diminish and subside Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds across the area. Weak to moderate northeast winds Thursday will become mostly onshore by Friday.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.