Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Thursday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Friday...South Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Friday Night...Southeast Winds Around 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 30 Knots. Seas 5 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Saturday...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Sunday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 5 Feet, Occasionally Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
106am CDT Wednesday May 18 2022
/Issued 853pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022/
Winds across the bays and coastal waters are generally ranging from 15-20 knots, thus let the Small Craft Advisory expire for the bays south of Port Aransas. Winds are expected to generally remain between 15-20 knots through the night, but could increase to around 20 knots at times. Will continue to monitor trends for any potential for winds to become more sustained at 20 knots.
/Issued 640pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022/
AVIATION... VFR conditions expected to continue through most of the TAF cycle with periods of MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions after 08Z and toward early Wednesday morning. This will mainly occur from ALI to VCT. The main concern will be a strengthening southerly low level jet overnight. The LLJ is expected to strengthen to 35-40 knots across the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains leading to low level wind shear as surface winds decrease. Have included LLWS for COT, LRD and ALI where LLWS is more likely to occur. By mid morning Wednesday, winds will mix with surface winds increasing out of the south and southeast. Gusts up to 25-30 knots will be possible. Can not rule out gusts to around 35 knots, especially across the CRP TAF site.
/Issued 340pm CDT Tuesday May 17 2022 by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Short Term - Tonight Through Wednesday Night
Surface high pressure over the upper-central Gulf will continue to bring a southerly warm and humid airmass into the region. Another warm and muggy night is expected with overnight lows mainly from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Winds will remain elevated through the night; therefore, the potential for fog is low.
Another hot and dry day is shaping up for Wednesday. Pattern aloft becomes more zonal tonight, allowing for several shortwaves to ride over South TX through the period. With PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remaining below one inch and 850 mb temperatures from 20 to 25 C; conditions will remain capped or not favorable for precipitation. Therefore, expect high clouds/cirrus through the day. Highs will range from the upper 80s along the coast to around 104 far west (inland). It will also be breezy with gusts up to 25-30 mph mainly in the afternoon.
LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Hot and breezy conditions expected through the end of the work week. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s over South Central/South TX to the low 100s over West TX, with areas closer to the coast slightly cooler in the low to mid 90s. Heat Index values may reach 103-105 degrees in some spots Thursday, and may rise to 104-109 over much of South TX Friday. South to southeasterly winds will range between 15 to 20 MPH with higher gusts on occasion on Thursday and Friday as the local pressure gradient tightens over much of TX. Areas along the coast and bays may have wind speeds a little stronger at times.
The weather pattern is expected to shift this upcoming weekend with chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday and may possibly continue through early next week. Friday into Saturday, a mid to upper level shortwave is to move into West and Central TX and a surface low and associated cold front will make its way into Central TX by Saturday morning. The front will push across South TX as the day progresses, and shower and storm activity will be on the rise during the afternoon and evening hours as PWs ramp up into the 1.6 to 2.0 inches range and instability increases (especially along the southern counties. The front is push into the middle to upper TX coasts sometime early Sunday morning and stall near or over the coastal Gulf waters. We will finally have a cooler air mass move through in the wake of the front, but only decreasing the local temperatures 5 to 10 degrees...but it's better than nothing. The front will then move back inland Monday as a warm front, which could continue to result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the region.
AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. FEW to SCT cumulus are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly around ALI, VCT and CRP terminals. The main concern is winds. Gusty southerly winds up 25 knots will continue through early this evening. Winds will remain moderate through the night, before becoming gusty again by late Wednesday morning. A brief window of MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) to low end VFR conditions will be possible early Wednesday morning, but coverage should be limited to only ALI, VCT and CRP sites.
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow expected through Saturday. Strong winds will continue in the bays south of Port Aransas and a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will remain in effect through tonight. Though mainly moderate winds are expected, somewhat of a diurnal pattern will develop with winds possibly reaching SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria for a few hours each night and may require Caution Flags to be upgraded to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at times. A cold front is forecast to move into the coastal waters sometime early Sunday morning and stall, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms for much of the weekend. Winds will turn easterly near sunrise Sunday and increase during the day, but winds look to stay just below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. Onshore flow returns Monday as the front pushes back inland as a warm front.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories