Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Northeast Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Saturday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Around 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
|Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Sunday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet.|
|Sunday Night...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
|Monday...Southwest Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northwest In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...North Wind 5 To 10 Knots Shifting Northeast After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday...East Wind 5 To 10 Knots. Seas 2 To 3 Feet.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Wind 15 To 20 Knots Becoming North 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Wednesday...North Wind 20 To 25 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.|
|Wednesday Night...North Wind 15 To 20 Knots Decreasing To 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.|
Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200|
303 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020
A weak to moderate east to southeast flow is expected to develop today and continue tonight and Sunday. Flow across the offshore waters is expected to be moderate by Sunday afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow Sunday night will turn offshore and weaken further through the day on Monday behind a modest cold front. A few showers are possible near the front on Monday. Following weak easterly flow on Tuesday, a much stronger front arrives Tuesday night ahead of northerly winds near Gale force at times. Strong offshore flow will become weak to moderate on Thursday, before turning onshore and remaining mostly weak on Friday behind cold high pressure.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
250am CST Sat Feb 22 2020
Short Term - Today Through Sunday
Mid and high level clouds can be seen per WV satellite moving around the northern periphery of a ridge that is situated over TX. This ridge is forecast to shift east today as an upper level low swings across the western CONUS. This will lead to a southwest flow over S TX which will continue to usher in upper level clouds through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will move east today with an increasing onshore flow developing through this afternoon. This will usher low level moisture and warmer temps back across S TX through the weekend.
With increasing moisture/dewpoints, patchy fog will be possible by late tonight into early Sunday morning. The fog is not expected to become dense due to lack of radiational cooling and an increasing LLJ to around 25 knots.
A moderate rip current risk is expected through the weekend due to a developing onshore flow. This could become a high risk if swell periods and heigheights are higher than anticipated.
.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)... Slightly richer moisture arrives Sunday night on continued southerly low level winds. NAM and SREF indicate some potential for inland advection fog, but soundings generally favor stratus at this time. Aloft meanwhile, a stubborn cap is forecast to decay through the day on Monday as height falls and mid-level cooling arrive along an upper trough axis. Although the parent low will be tracking across Oklahoma and filling in the process, models still retain a small window for some morning showers along the front - mainly for the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend near the highest PWATs (Precipitable Waters) up to 1.6 inches.
Dry surface ridging Monday night and Tuesday will be replaced by a more potent cold front come Tuesday night courtesy of a vigorous upper trough on the heels of Monday's impulse. Little to no return flow ahead of this front and mostly negative PWAT (Precipitable Water) anomalies are not inspiring for additional rain chances, so a dry forecast remains in the hopper. Similar to this past Thursday, post-frontal winds could hit advisory levels for our coastal counties given such strong Cold Air Advection and 30-40 knots at 925 mb. Great model consensus with this latter front and the overall pattern raise confidence in a very cold night heading into Thu as surface high pressure settles the region. NBM looks to be doing this cold snap justice, so a light freeze for our northern- most counties seems very reasonable before easterly flow develops Fri-Sat with moderating temps.
As surface high pressure moves east today, flow will become east to southeast and increase to weak to moderate levels. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist tonight and Sunday with slightly stronger winds across the offshore waters by Sunday afternoon. Could see SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) across the offshore waters Sunday afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow Sunday night will turn offshore and weaken further through the day on Monday behind a modest cold front. A few showers are possible near the front on Monday. Following weak easterly flow on Tuesday, a much stronger front arrives Tuesday night ahead of northerly winds near Gale force at times. Strong offshore flow will become weak to moderate on Thursday, before turning onshore and remaining mostly weak on Friday behind cold high pressure.
NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories