Marine Weather Net

Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRIDAY

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

FRIDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SATURDAY

SE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ255 Forecast Issued: 835 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST FRIDAY
Rest Of Tonight...South Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. Areas Of Fog Early In The Evening, Then Widespread Fog After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Friday...South Wind 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Widespread Fog In The Morning, Then Areas Of Fog In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots Decreasing To 5 To 10 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 5 Feet. Areas Of Fog.
Saturday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Areas Of Fog In The Morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Patchy Fog After Midnight.
Sunday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Monday...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
835 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Dense sea fog will continue over the bays and near shore waters tonight through early Friday afternoon. A weak to moderate onshore flow this evening will weaken early Friday morning as a weak cold front draws closer to the coast. A brief improvement in the fog is expected Friday afternoon but the fog should return Friday night and remain through Saturday morning. Isolated showers are possible tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the weekend before a cold front moves through on Monday. Winds will strengthen to moderate to strong levels and shift out of the northeast in wake of the front. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Monday in association with the cold front. A slight chance for showers will linger into Tuesday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1041pm CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Short Term - Tonight Through Friday Night
Southeast winds have become a little stronger than expected over the Coastal Bend with a frontal boundary just north of the region. Thermal gradient over the region may have factored in pushing the winds a little higher. The frontal boundary has pushed into the extreme northwest part of the forecast area late this afternoon just south of a COT-FTN line. Front will be slow to push farther south as models show low level flow of 30-40 knots over the coastal plains this evening before decreasing overnight. The low level warm air advection will provide a chance of light showers mainly across the northern counties tonight.

A short wave trough will move across the southern high plains this evening and through Oklahoma/north Texas overnight. This will lead to a push behind the front that will bring the boundary into the coastal plains early Friday morning. Models are not in agreement with regards to this front. NAM is very bullish in bringing colder air into the region. But it was a little too strong in bringing the front south today. Went with a blend of the hi-res ARW/NMM models with the CONSShort for placement of the front. This brings the front to near Port Lavaca southwest to Hebbronville by 18Z and stall. Fog will be an issue late tonight through Friday morning along the coast. Probability of Precipitation will only be at slight chance over the coastal plains and northern Brush Country on Friday. Warmest readings will be in the Coastal Bend.

The boundary will drift slowly inland Friday night. Southerly low level flow will increase again Friday night providing enough isentropic lift to mention a slight chance of showers over the northeast counties late. Patchy to areas of fog will occur over the coastal plains overnight.

Long Term - Saturday through Thursday
Weak surface high pressure over northern Texas will be shifting eastward on Saturday allowing for onshore flow to gradually increase moisture across the region. Precipitable water values are expected to rise from around 1.2-1.3 inches on Saturday to around 1.5-1.6 inches by Sunday/Sunday night. This will allow for isolated showers to form over the area on Saturday, becoming more scattered by Sunday, with the highest chances expected across the eastern half of the CWA. A deepening mid-level low tracking from northern Mexico into the northern portions of the state late in the weekend will push an associated frontal boundary across South Texas on Monday further enhancing the rain chances. Increased instability ahead and along this boundary may provide for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form Sunday through Monday, given the strong cap can be broken.

Drier conditions may arrive Tuesday into Tuesday night, but these conditions may be brief as some of the global models indicate another mid-level disturbance and associated surface front rapidly pushing over the region around mid-week. Given the current spread in the global models regarding the progression of this next system, have opted for keeping low end Probability of Precipitation in the forecast as in the blended solutions until models are in better agreement.

With the stalled boundary now expected to stay farther north, have warmed up temperatures on Saturday by a few degrees, with highs now ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Highs on Sunday will run a few degrees warmer than on Saturday. Cooler temperatures are on forecast Monday through Tuesday, with a gradual warm up expected around mid next week. Behind the front, expect highs in the 60s to 70s, with lows in the 50s to near 60. Breezy conditions may develop in the wake of the front on Monday.

Marine Discussion

Dense sea fog will continue over the bays and near shore waters tonight through early Friday afternoon. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the bays and near shore waters until 20Z Friday. A weak to moderate onshore flow will occur this evening and weaken early Friday morning as a weak cold front moves into south Texas. A brief improvement in the fog is expected Friday afternoon but the fog should return Friday night and persist through Saturday morning. Isolated showers are possible tonight.

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the weekend before a cold front moves through on Monday. Winds will strengthen to moderate to strong levels and shift out of the northeast in wake of the front. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Monday in association with the cold front. A slight chance for showers may linger into Tuesday.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2pm CST Friday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas... Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor... Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM... Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.