Marine Weather Net

Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

E
WINDS
20
KNOTS

SUNDAY

S
WINDS
20
KNOTS

SUNDAY NIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MONDAY

SE
WINDS
15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ255 Forecast Issued: 331 PM CDT Sat May 08 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
Tonight...Southeast Wind Around 20 Knots Becoming South Overnight. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Sunday...South Wind Around 20 Knots Decreasing To 15 To 20 Knots Around Noon. Seas 5 To 7 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 9 Feet.
Sunday Night...South Wind 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Monday...Southeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet.
Monday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Tuesday...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Wednesday...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet. Showers And Thunderstorms Likely.
Wednesday Night...Northeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northeast Wind Around 15 Knots. Seas 4 To 6 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 8 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East Wind 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 5 Feet With Occasional Seas Up To 6 Feet.
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Synopsis for Middle Texas coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Matagorda ship channel - GMZ200
331 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

A moderate to strong onshore flow will continue over the coastal waters through the night into Sunday morning. The winds are expected to decrease for a brief period late morning over the bays before picking up again in the afternoon due to a strong thermal gradient over the the southern bays and near shore waters. The winds over the offshore waters will diminish by the afternoon but the seas will likely take a while to subside. A moderate onshore flow will occur Sunday night over the Gulf waters. A moderate southerly flow Monday is expected to become a weak to moderate onshore flow by Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon Thursday afternoon as a front approaches the region. A moderate northeasterly flow is expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and persist through Thursday night before the return on onshore flow on Friday. With the moderate winds across the region, Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible Monday night through Thursday afternoon, especially across the open waters.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
350pm CDT Sat May 8 2021

Short Term - Tonight Through Sunday Night
The short wave trough over the central high plains this afternoon will move east-northeast to Illinois/Indiana Sunday morning. A generally zonal flow aloft will persist across the southern CONUS Sunday into Sunday night. Surface low deepening over western Kansas this afternoon will move east across the Mid-Mississippi River valley Sunday morning. Southerly low level flow will increase to 35-40 knots across south Texas this evening, with breezy conditions occurring through midnight with winds gradually decreasing late tonight especially over the Brush Country as a trough axis approaches.

The depth of moisture will become shallow over the coastal plains by Sunday morning. So do not expect isolated streamer showers later tonight into Sunday morning. The low level jet will shift to the east Sunday with a trough/dryline moving into the Brush Country in the afternoon. This will lead to very warm temperatures along and west of the dryline with highs from 100-104 degrees over the Brush Country. Areas west of a NQI-BEA line expected to reach heat index values of 105 degrees Sunday afternoon. Even with hot and dry conditions over the western counties, winds are expected to be light and limit fire danger potential. Thermal gradient over the southern Coastal Bend will lead to breezy conditions in the afternoon.

Dryline will move back to the west Sunday evening with a gradual increase in low clouds expected mainly over the coastal plains. Went with a blend of bias-corrected CONSShort/NBM for lows both nights.

Long Term - Monday through Saturday
The long term period will begin with hot temperatures, especially across the western half of the CWA. Temperatures across the Brush Country and Rio Grande are expected to creep into the triple digits on Monday with heat indices between 105 to 109 degrees, with some areas possibly exceeding 110 degrees. Meanwhile, temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are expected along the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. Models continue to show, and disagree on the approach of a cold front. The NAM is showing the front reaching the coast Tuesday afternoon before retreating while the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) show the front washing out across out northern counties Monday night into Tuesday. With the approach of the front and sufficient moisture across the area, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday night, with the possibility of severe weather. With rich low-level moisture expected to be present along with steep mid- level lapse rates and sufficient deep shear, any storm that develops along the front will have the potential to become severe. Therefore, Storm Prediction Center currently has our northern counties from the Victoria Crossroads to the Rio Grande under a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday night. With the boundary remaining in the area, our best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain will be possible within thunderstorms which could lead to minor localized flooding, especially across urban areas. Although uncertainty remains high, models are currently showing up to 2.5" of rain possible Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Despite the front not expected to clear the CWA, the cloud cover and scattered showers should help cool us down and keep our max temperatures at bay. Max temperatures in the lower to upper 80s, from east to west, are expected Wednesday through Friday with low temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures are expected to once again warm up into the upper 80s and 90s by next weekend.

Marine
Southerly low level flow will increase to 40 knots across the coastal waters tonight and continue through Sunday morning. This will lead to a moderate to strong onshore flow/SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for all marine zones through the night into Sunday morning. The winds are expected to decrease for a brief period late morning over the bays before picking up again in the afternoon due to thermal gradient over the the southern bays and near shore waters. The winds over the offshore waters will diminish by the afternoon but the seas will likely take a while to subside, so SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been extended until 22Z Sunday. A moderate onshore flow/SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) will occur Sunday night over the Gulf waters.

A moderate southerly flow Monday is expected to become a weak to moderate onshore flow by Monday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night as a front approaches the region. A moderate northeasterly flow is expected to develop Wednesday afternoon and persist through Thursday night before the return on onshore flow on Friday. With the moderate winds across the region, SCEC conditions (Small Craft Should Exercise Caution) will be possible Monday night through Thursday afternoon, especially across the open waters.

NOAA Corpus Christi TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 5pm CDT Sunday For the following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10am CDT Sunday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.

Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am CDT Sunday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to noon CDT Sunday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Sunday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM.