Marine Weather Net

Chandeleur Sound Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
5 KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

MONDAY NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ536 Forecast Issued: 947 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Rest Of Today...Northeast Winds Around 5 Knots, Becoming Southeast This Afternoon. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Tonight...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming West After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Late.
Monday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Monday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Early In The Evening.
Tuesday...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Increasing To 20 To 25 Knots After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday...Northeast Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet.
Wednesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.
Thursday...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible.
Thursday Night...North Winds 20 To 25 Knots With Gusts Up To 35 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1218pm CDT Sunday September 25 2022

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 420am CDT Sunday September 25 2022

Currently high pressure centered over Georgia at the surface with troughing over the Great Lakes and ridging along the Pacific Coast. A front associated with the Great Lakes trough has made it about as far south as Interstate 70, with any precipitation well to the north of our area. Temperatures at 4am CDT ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s away from direct marine influences.

The short term portion of the forecast is the "easy" part of the forecast as the Great Lakes trough continues to dive southeastward. It will push a cold front into the area late tonight into Monday morning. Deep moisture continues to be rather lacking with this system, although precipitable water values around 1.5 inches are noted, there aren't any really saturated layers, especially this afternoon. Some isolated showers/storms can't be ruled out late this afternoon or overnight, but they'll probably be few and far between. Currently looks like any significant precipitation Monday may remain offshore.

Hot temperatures likely to continue today, and possibly Monday. High temperatures the last couple days have pretty much exceeded all guidance, and see little reason for this to change today, with highs in the lower and middle 90s pretty common. The cooler air will likely lag the front by 100 miles or so on Monday, so any noticeable cooling probably won't occur until late in the day for most of the area, with highs mid 80s southwest Mississippi to lower 90s most other areas.

Long Term
(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 420am CDT Sunday September 25 2022

Really hasn't been a lot of change in expectations in the extended forecast since yesterday afternoon's package. Most of yesterday's still pretty valid.

Going into midweek, cooler high pressure will build into the area behind Monday's cold front. Cooler and drier air will lead to several pleasant weather days across the local area, with lows dropping into the 50s across areas generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Afternoon highs will also come down, possibly only rising into the low to mid 80s Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Ian, is still forecast to move across the eastern Gulf, will lead to breezy to windy conditions at midweek, especially east of Interstate 55 with the strongest winds along the Mississippi coast.

With Ian forecast to remain east of the area, expect winds to maintain an offshore direction through the remainder of the period, reinforcing the dry airmass behind the front, though some warming is expected by the weekend.

Obviously some details of the longer term forecast will depend on the eventual track and intensity of Ian. Based on the current forecast, we shouldn't see any significant impacts over land areas other than the previously mentioned bump in wind speeds Wed/Thurs which is indirectly related to the storm. However, it is important for people along the northern Gulf Coast to continue monitoring the situation. The forecast track didn't shift much overnight, but still have the potential to shift westward and some impacts could spread into portions of the local area. Wind speed probabilities from NHC do indicate a low chance (about 15% or less) of tropical storm force winds across areas generally along and east of the I-55 corridor with the highest probabilities across portions of the MS coast and extreme SE LA. This has led to the introduction of "tropical storm conditions possible" wording into the forecast for several zones.

We would like to reiterate that citizens of Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi should not let their guard down regarding potential impacts from Ian. While significant impacts look unlikely at this time, Ian is expected to be a large storm. Any further shifts to the west could begin to result in some impacts across portions of the local area. Remember, impacts from a hurricane can extend beyond the forecast cone.

Marine
Issued at 420am CDT Sunday September 25 2022

Conditions will remain generally benign through Monday with winds 10kts or less and seas 2 ft or less. A cold front will sweep through the coastal waters Monday night and as high pressure builds in behind it, expect winds and seas to increase. Some of this will be a direct result of the front and some will be a response to the tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure behind the front and Tropical Storm Ian, which is forecast to be a hurricane in the eastern Gulf by Tuesday. Add in swells emanating from the storm, and it's a pretty high confidence forecast of hazardous conditions across the coastal waters for the Tuesday through Friday time frame. The specific details are still a bit murky and have currently capped winds and seas near/below 30 knots and 12-15 feet respectively based on the current forecast for Ian, but those with marine interests should keep a close eye on the forecast as these details could change. Any headlines (Small Craft Advisory, etc) would likely begin during the daylight hours Tuesday, and would be issued this afternoon or tomorrow. In fact, the latest wind speed probabilities about a 30% chance of sustained tropical storm force winds across the southeastern portions of the coastal waters.

NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.