Marine Weather Net

Chandeleur Sound Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THURSDAY

SE
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
GMZ536 Forecast Issued: 1151 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Overnight...Southwest Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming Northwest Late. Waves 1 Foot Or Less.
Wednesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Feet In The Afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet.
Thursday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Friday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.
Saturday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 3 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.
Sunday Night...South Winds Around 10 Knots. Waves Around 2 Feet. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1205am CDT Wednesday May 29 2024

Long Term
(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 400pm CDT Tuesday May 28 2024

Forecast is not getting any easier in the extended portion of the forecast. Some of the medium range models have trended in the opposite direction from where they were the past 48 hours with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) trending wetter for Friday and the GFS (Global Forecast System) now slightly drier (not dry just not quite as bullish as yesterday). That said there is more confidence now that ridge building west of the current eastern CONUS L/W trough will not be quite as stout and the base will be north of the region. This provide weak northwest to possibly mostly zonal flow and thus any disturbances that dig into the southern Plains and central/east TX should be able to undercut the ridge enough to push into our area. Again looking at the NBM and it has increased the Probability of Precipitation for almost each through Sunday. With the increase in confidence in the pattern this is a good trend and will stick with the 40 to even 60% Probability of Precipitation it is advertising at times. The biggest question is the afternoon highs. These will absolutely be dictated by timing over convection and cloud cover and with no confidence at all in the overall timing best option is to stick with what the NBM has however if we have a great deal of cloud cover and rain most of these daily highs in the forecast will likely be too warm. On the other side with the LL temps being advertised if we find ourselves in a break at the wrong time (basically mid morning through the afternoon) the current forecast is a few degrees too cool.

Friday may be the one day with the least amount of convection. The L/W trough will dig across the eastern seaboard and the ridge will amplify in response but as long as it is connected with the broad riding to the SSW over the Gulf and across Mexico we should still be able to get some afternoon convection. LL temps of 22-24 would suggest highs in the upper 80s to maybe mid 90s but with the expectation of clouds and storms providing cooling rain mid 80 to near 90 is probably the right call.

This weekend looks to provide one possibly two good shots of rain across the area. The trough currently coming onshore out of the Pacific will work across the CONUS over the next few days and there may actually be multiple impulses associated with it as it tries to merge with some energy coming out of the Pacific over Mexico and southern TX. Multiple things being to take place late Friday and into the weekend. First our L/W trough over the east coast slides east into the Atlantic with the ridge continuing to work east as well. This will lead to less of an impact from the ridge. In addition the ridge over Mexico builds but is centered along the western Mexican coast with the ridge axis building into the 4 corners late Saturday. This will help to place the CWA (County Warning Area) in northwest flow but there will be a few disturbances that work through the Lower MS Valley. Timing these right now is futile but when these occur we can expect to see scattered to numerous storms across the region. Good thing is as of right now it doesn't look like there is that much of a threat of strong to severe storms. Biggest impact could be in the form of heavy rain. /CAB/

Marine
Issued at 400pm CDT Tuesday May 28 2024

No major concerns over the coastal waters outside of convection. The one thing to keep a close eye on is the possibility of a wake low tonight if current convection over south-central and southeast LA starts to surge to the southeast again. The is a rather impressive meso high behind the convection and if this continues we could see a wake low develop providing a 2-3 hours window of strong winds over the coastal waters west of the mouth of the MS this evening. High pressure will be come re-established well off to our north and northeast and onshore flow will redevelop and become moderate at times through the rest of the week and into the weekend. /CAB/

NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.