Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt This Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Tonight...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening, Then Snow And Rain After Midnight With Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 12 Seconds. Snow, Mainly In The Morning. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 10 Seconds. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. Light Freezing Spray. |
| Mon Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Tue And Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 330am EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Synopsis High pressure moves offshore this afternoon then a fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow overnight into Sunday morning, especially south of the Mass Pike. Ocean effect snow showers will linger into Sunday afternoon towards the Cape and Islands. A brief shot of arctic air follows Sunday night into Monday with wind chill dropping to between 5 below and 5 above. It remains cold Tuesday, but a pattern change with a significant warming trend is likely Wednesday into Thursday. The milder will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty winds and showers sometime in the late Thursday into Friday time frame. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening Today Mainly dry weather today with high pressure in control. Will see increasing mid and high clouds as a disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures will warm to around -5C by the afternoon with a light return flow behind departing high pressure. High temperatures will be warmer than what we've recently seen with highs well into the 30s with even some lower 40. Mainly dry today...but a few spot snow showers are possible across interior or rain showers near the coast after 21z with weak lift ahead of an incoming shortwave. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Sunday Night Key Messages... * Accumulating snow very late tonight-Sunday morning especially south of I-90...highest accumulations near south coast * Advisory Level snowfall expected towards the south coast, Cape and Islands. * Ocean effect snow showers linger on the outer Cape into Sun night with additional minor accum possible * Brief shot of arctic air results in wind chills dropping to between -5 and 5 above late Sunday night into early Monday morning Details... Tonight... Starting to see some better agreement among guidance with respect to the season's first widespread snow event along the I95 corridor slated for tonight into Sunday morning. Notably, the GFS (Global Forecast System) has trended further north with the higher Quantitative Precipitation Forecast to be more in line with the CMC and ECMWF. As a result, global models are nearly identical in terms of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast placement and amounts. High res guidance is generally similar with the exception of the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) which has the bulk of the precipitation shield further offshore and thus a drier solution. Later today shortwave energy rotates around a positively tilted trough north of the Great Lakes. Trough starts to dig overnight bringing a deep moisture plume northward into SNE. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) increase from 0.3" to 0.5-0.6" overnight so there will be plenty of moisture to work with. Further aloft, the region will find itself under the right entrance region of a 140-150 kt upper jet overnight into Sunday morning. High confidence that this combination will bring the first widespread accumulating snows for much of RI, and areas S of the Mass Pike. Precipitation will likely start at light snow late tonight for much of the region except for the Cape and Islands where temperatures will take some time to cool. Still expecting much of the accumulating snow to fall over a 8-12 hour period later tonight into Sunday morning. High res guidance has also honed in on the chance for lingering ocean effect snow for the Cape and Islands into Sunday afternoon. While this certainly does not look like a heavy snow event, BUFKIT soundings have become somewhat more impressive for this event. Specifically the 00z NAM has modest amounts of omega on the order of -10 ubar/sec collocated with a 6-8kft DGZ across much of SE Massachusetts. Thus, unsurprisingly, the HREF shows a brief window of hourly snowfall rates between 0.25 and 0.5 inches mainly across S RI and SE MA between 08 and 12z Sunday morning. In terms of totals, while this won't be a major event it will be the first accumulating snow of the 2025-26 season for many of us. Despite a somewhat deep DGZ and temps in the mid and lower 20s snow ratios will be limited by a lack of strong mid-level frontogenesis and omega. All told, this will be a general 1-3 inch event S of the Mass Pike with highest amounts along the south coast. Expecting around 4-4.5 inches on Cape Cod and the south coast. Meanwhile, just a coating to an inch for areas north of the MA Pike. Think the RRFS shows a reasonable worst case scenario if there is a northern shift there could be up to 6 inches across RI and SE MA and Cape Cod but this is still a low probability (less than 25%) outcome. If the system trends south it would be closer to 1-2 inches near the south coast with decreasing amounts northward. Sunday and Sunday Night... Steadiest snow will quickly end from west to east through mid morning Sunday. Expecting ocean effect snow showers to linger the outer Cape Sunday afternoon and night as arctic air pours into the region on NNW-NW flow. Ocean induced CAPES expected increase to 500- 600 J/kg with SST differential around 25C. An additional inch or 2 is possible on the outer Cape but boundary layer temperature profiles may be a bit warm for additional accumulations during the afternoon. A short duration shot of arctic air will pour into the region Sunday night and Mon. Lows will drop into the single numbers and teens with wind chills bottoming out between -5F and +5F late Sunday night and Monday morning, with -10F possible in the Berkshires. Long Term - Monday Through Friday Key Messages... * Blustery and bitterly cold Monam with Wind Chills between 5 below & 5 above and afternoon highs only recovering into the 20s * A few brief snow showers possible Monday night, otherwise dry and still chilly Tuesday with highs mainly in the lower-middle 30s * Pattern change with significantly milder temperatures Wed-Fri with unsettled/mainly wet weather possible sometime late Thu into Fri Details... Monday... A brief shot of arctic air and gusty NW winds will result in bitterly cold wind chills early Monday morning in the 5 below and 5 above range. Under a mixture of clouds and sunshine will result in Monday afternoon high temperatures only recovering into the 20s. Monday night and Tuesday... A fast moving moisture starved northern stream shortwave may bring a few brief snow showers to the region Monday night. Otherwise...the main story will be the continued chilly weather. Lows Monday night will generally be in the teens. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 20s in the highest terrain...to mainly the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wednesday through Friday... The long range model guidance continues to be in very good agreement in a significant pattern change. A -PNA developing will allow for milder Pacific air to overspread much of the lower 48. This is quite the change from the very cold weather we have seen for the first of of December. High temperatures should reach well into the 40s on Wednesday and perhaps 50+ Thu and/or Fri. In fact...Thu night may end up quite mild with gusty southerly winds and steady/rising temps if current model timing pans out. This a result of shortwave energy moving into the Great Lakes resulting in strong surface low pressure tracking well to our north across Quebec. This would allow a strong southerly LLJ to develop...2+ standard deviations above normal also bringing showers and the potential for gusty winds sometime in the late Thursday to Friday time frame. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today Through Sunday Night ...High confidence. Small craft advisory conditions redevelop later today into this evening with gusty SW winds/choppy seas developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale watch Sunday night into Monday as strong Cold Air Advection will result in excellent mixing over the waters. Areas of very light freezing spray possible Sunday night. Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/... Monday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Sunday for MAZ020>024. RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10pm this evening to 7pm EST Sunday for RIZ003>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10am this morning to 1am EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. |
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