Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog. Rain With A Chance Of Tstms. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tonight...S Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: S 6 Ft At 10 Seconds And S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds, Becoming Sw 8 Ft At 11 Seconds And Sw 6 Ft At 5 Seconds. Patchy Fog. Rain. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 7 Ft At 11 Seconds And Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 10 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 5 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Thu Through Fri Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 708am EDT Monday Mar 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings across eastern MA and RI. .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms today, especially tonight, may lead to river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. - A period of strong to damaging winds across SNE tonight. - Mainly dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. - Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a chance of showers at times. KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well. A deepening low moving across the Great Lakes today will bring the potential for heavy rain, flooding, embedded thunderstorms, and damaging winds to southern New England today into tonight. Starting with the rain and flooding, a warm front lifts through the region this morning, advecting in warmer air and moisture from the south. A strong LLJ with speeds topping out around 80-90 kt at 925 mb will only reinforce this WAA; 925 mb temperatures increase to 10C-15C across southern New England during the afternoon. Surface temperatures could reach the 60s today across the region. NAEFS ensemble guidance the last few runs has also shown significantly above normal IVT during this period, around 6-8 SD above normal over the region by 00z Tuesday. Guidance has also continued to show a good amount of elevated MUCAPE ranging between 200-600 J/kg with the higher amounts in CT, RI, and up into parts of central MA during the afternoon. This coupled with the strong LLJ at 925 mb would be supportive of some rumbles of thunder and more convective elements that could lead to heavier rainfall where any t-storms develop. Outside of these areas, mostly light to moderate rainfall is expected today into tonight. Totals will likely fall in the 2-3" range with localized 4"+ possible where any heavier downpours develop. KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of strong to damaging across SNE tonight. Strong signal for a period of strong to damaging wind gusts tonight across SNE as anomalous low level jet lifts across the region. Hi- res guidance indicating solid 80-90 kt LLJ at 925 mb moving up along the SNE coast 03-06z then exiting Cape Cod by 09z so looking at about a 3-4 hr window of peak winds. The challenge is how much of this jet will mix down to the surface as we will be dealing with a low level inversion. How mild it gets will be a big factor and soundings suggest damaging wind potential will increase considerably with temps 60F or higher. Given that we have increased confidence of temps near 60F this evening especially away from the immediate south coast, these mild temps should weaken the inversion enough for a period of damaging winds. Also there is quite a pressure fall rise couplet along the cold front which may also help to enhance winds near and along the boundary. As a result we upgraded the High Wind Watches to High Wind Warnings for eastern MA and RI where the strongest winds are expected in the vicinity of max low level winds. Potential for 55-65 mph gusts in this area and this is supported by HREF mean wind gusts. Low risk for a gust to 70 mph across southern RI and SE MA. Kept the wind advisories for the rest of SNE for a period of 45-55 mph gusts. Strongest gusts in the interior should be across CT and adjacent areas of central MA where a few 55-60 mph gust are possible. Hi-res CAMs do show a robust fine line to the west late afternoon and and early evening where there is modest surface instability. However, this fine line is expected to weaken as it moves into SNE later tonight as instability here is elevated above the boundary layer. However the CAMs are showing numerous convective elements moving into SNE tonight which could help to bring stronger winds to the surface. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and trending colder Tuesday into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri. The cold front will be well east of the coast by daybreak Tuesday with much drier air moving into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies but some diurnal CU as well as cooling temps aloft move into the region. The cold advection aloft will help to deepen the boundary layer which will support gusty W winds with gusts 25-35 mph. Highs will be mostly in the low-mid 40s, with 30s higher elevations. The core of the coldest air will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as 850 mb temps bottom out at -15 to -18C around 12z Wed. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the teens and low 20s with high only in the 30s on Wed. Winds however will be diminishing late Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region. Still these temps will be about 10 degrees below normal for mid March. Temps moderate Thu and especially Fri as the high moves offshore with SW flow developing. Highs should reach into the 50s on Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGE 4...Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a chance of showers at times. Fairly active pattern setting up for next weekend as multiple northern stream shortwaves will be rotating SE toward New Eng. Timing and amplitude of these shortwaves are not certain so low confidence on details but it does appear next weekend will be an unsettled period as a series of frontal systems move into the region. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Winds ramp back up today into tonight as a powerful low pressure system approaches from the west. Seas increase considerably headed into tonight, reaching up to 15 ft and even close to 20 ft in the southern waters by 06z Tuesday. Seas 7-10 ft will be more common in the eastern waters. Winds will very likely reach storm conditions tonight. Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters. Seas decrease to around 12 ft for Tuesday as the cold front exits over the waters. W winds remain gusty to around 35 kt through the day Tuesday. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 8am EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MAZ002>022-026. Wind Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 8am EDT Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008>012-026. High Wind Warning from 5pm this afternoon to 6am EDT Tuesday for MAZ005>007-013>024. RI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for RIZ001>007. High Wind Warning from 5pm this afternoon to 6am EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. Marine Storm Warning from 8pm this evening to 5am EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-236. Storm Warning from 5pm this afternoon to 8am EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. |
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