Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Mon Night And Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
300am EST Fri Jan 27 2023
Minor river flooding continues into Friday, rivers recede into the weekend. Dry with seasonable temperatures expected through Sunday. A more active pattern then develops early to mid next week with the potential for a series of frontal systems to affect Southern New England. While the weather pattern favors mixed wintry precipitation or rain in these systems, the timing and specifics of each still are highly uncertain. Above normal temperatures continue for the weekend, then a downward tendency in temperatures to near or below normal around midweek.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Highlights... * Minor flooding still occurring along area rivers, Flood Warnings continue Friday - Sunday.
* Low chance of an isolated sprinkle or flurry Friday afternoon, otherwise a dry along with a mixture of sun and clouds.
Minor river flooding continues to occur along the Taunton River near Bridgewater, MA - the Pawtuxet River at Cranston - the River at Hope Valley - and the Pawcatuck at Westerly.
Quiet weather conditions to end the work week as weak high pressure noses north into New England. Guidance does have a shortwave passing through the region early/mid afternoon, which will likely add more strato-cu and perhaps a very isolated sprinkle or flurry, mainly for areas west of IJD, ORH, FIT. In addition, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are quite low, generally less than 0.25 inch across New England.
Afternoon temperatures are on par for late-January. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary layer will be well mixed this afternoon. Able to tap into the cold temperatures aloft, expecting temperatures to achieve middle to upper 30s north of the Mass Pike and upper 30s to low 40s south of the Mass Pike.
Winds aloft are generally weak. West winds become southwest to south late in the day. Wind speeds are light, less between 5-8 knots.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Saturday
Tonight: Southwest flow aloft will help to increase, ever so slightly moisture aloft, adding to the cloud cover during the overnight hours. Temperature wise they are similar to Friday morning. Coldest temperatures are in the upper teens and low 20s across northern Massachusetts and Berkshires. Elsewhere, low temperatures are in the mid 20s. Warm spot, if you want to call it warm, are the coastal areas, Cape Cod, Islands, with lows in the low 30s.
Saturday: Another dry day with weak ridging in place as a surface low passes well to our north in central Quebec. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) remain low once again less than 0.25 inch. High-res guidance would like to produce very isolated flurries Saturday morning with the passage of a weak warm front. Capped the POPs in western MA to slight chance as probabilities are quite low. Temperatures increase aloft to 0C and with a well mixed boundary layer, afternoon temperatures should achieve the low 40s across interior Massachusetts, mid to upper 40s for Connecticut River Valley, and the Boston to Providence corridor. Winds are picking back up as well with a passage of a low level jet. Guidance has a 30-40 kt jet at 925mb Saturday morning/early afternoon. Once the boundary layer mixes, we should have westerly wind gusts to around 20-25 kts.
Long Term - Saturday Night Through Thursday
* Mix of sun and clouds, but dry with above normal temps for most of this weekend.
* Unsettled weather pattern late this weekend into midweek, with series of frontal systems to affect the area. Specifics are uncertain at this time, especially on the timing and strength of disturbances, but pattern favors mixed wintry precipitation types and/or rain.
* Potential for below normal temperatures towards late next week
This portion of the forecast will feature a pattern change from a broad mid level trough/nearly zonal flow into a more complicated flow pattern toward the middle of next week, with a smaller northern stream trough, with a deeper southern stream trough over the SW CONUS. While the 27/00Z guidance suite is in general agreement with the broad strokes, there is a variety of answers when it comes down to the timing and amplitude details. The international guidance had a slower, more amplified southern stream trough. This leads to lower confidence in the forecast details late next week.
Fairly progressive pattern favors quick-hitting systems. A front Sunday into Monday should be our next chance for some rainfall. A more significant chance could develop towards the middle of next week.
Temperature-wise, expecting above normal temperatures to continue into Monday. Then temperatures trend to near normal mid week, with the possibility of below normal temperatures late next week. As has been mentioned previously, there remains little run-to-run consistency with the details towards late next week. Despite 80 percent confidence intervals for temperatures approaching 25-35 degrees F, there is a rather consistent signal in the ensembles to support the shift toward colder conditions.
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Saturday...High confidence.
Over all a dry period today into Saturday evening. Diminishing seas for today, but waves remain large enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories for majority of the waters through this evening. Winds are generally 8-12 kts and out of the west/southwest today. Heading into Saturday, winds becoming south/southwest 10-20 kts, gusting to 30 kts. Small Craft Advisories likely will be needed for this period.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EST early this morning for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for ANZ231- 236-251. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ250- 254>256.