Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. Smoke This Evening. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And Sw 1 Foot At 5 Seconds, Becoming N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And N 1 Foot At 5 Seconds, Becoming Ne 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Ne 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Showers. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To Around 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds. Showers Likely In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon And Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 314pm EDT Thu July 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes have been made to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... - A few brief spot showers possible across northern MA into mid- evening. Otherwise...dry and pleasant through Fri night outside of the wildfire smoke this evening. Lows mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Fri mainly in the lower to middle 80s. - Chances for beneficial showers and thunderstorms on the uptake for Saturdaypm into the overnight period. - A cooler start to the work week with unsettled conditions through the middle of next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...A few brief spot showers possible across northern MA into mid-evening. Otherwise...dry and pleasant through Fri night outside of the wildfire smoke this evening. Lows mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Fri mainly in the lower to middle 80s. A cold front will cross the region this evening. However...the lack of low level moisture coupled with the main shortwave forcing passing to our north will keep most of us dry. A few brief spot showers may survive into northern MA and perhaps the remote risk for a rumble of thunder in far northeast MA. Otherwise...generally a dry/very pleasant weather through Friday night. We will have to deal with some more smoke moving into the region through late afternoon...But the worst of it will likely stay to our southwest. And the good news is that it will get shoved into the mid-Atlantic after midnight and will not be an issue for Fri. High pressure builds across the region on Friday behind tonight/s cold frontal passage. This high pressure system will shift east of us Friday night...But we will maintain dry/pleasant weather. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity. Lows tonight and Friday night will mainly be in the 50s to the lower 60s with middle 60s in the urban heat island of Boston. KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for beneficial showers and thunderstorms on the uptake for Saturdaypm into the overnight period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading into the weekend as a surface low approaches Saturday, bringing prolonged southwesterly flow and surging PWATs. Latest guidance suite has increased confidence in PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over 2.0", with some as high as 3.0", which lends favor to some heavy downpours developing overnight. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and CMC ensembles indicate a 60-80% chance of at least 0.5" of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (mostly across the southern coastal areas and up into central CT and RI), while the GFS (Global Forecast System) ensemble is trending those higher percentiles off our southern shores and further north into northern New England. Southern New England is currently in a Marginal (1/4) risk for flash flooding, but discussion has started with neighboring offices (and will continue with the next forecast cycle) on potentially increasing that risk to a Sight (2/4), particularly across the southern coastal areas of CT and RI given the relatively high consensus in the model guidance that some heavier bands could develop across those areas. Instability profiles continue to look relatively weak, but CSU Machine Learning probabilities continue to indicate low (5-15%) chances that some storms could turn severe. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cooler start to the work week with unsettled conditions through the middle of next week. A cooler airmass moves in Sunday once the cold front pushes offshore, with temperatures making a return to seasonable norms... in the low to mid 80s through at least the middle of next week. A brief spell of drier conditions is possible Monday as high pressure builds somewhere over the Appalachian region. Chances for showers then increase again for the middle of next week as a surface low moves east across Ontario and a trailing cold front sweeps through the mid-Atlantic region into New England. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Friday night...High confidence. Gusty near shore small craft W wind gusts will diminish this evening and shift to the NW behind the cold front. Otherwise...high pressure builds in from the west behind this evening/s cold front keeping winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ002>004. MA... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>024- 026. RI... Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for RIZ001>008. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. |
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