Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Scattered Showers, Mainly This Evening. Patchy Fog This Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Evening. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night And Sat...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Rain.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night Through Mon Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
744pm EDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
Strong coastal storm centered southeast late this afternoon moves farther offshore tonight. Much quieter and mainly dry weather returns Thursday into at least part of Friday. Period of rain, which may be heavy at times late Friday through Saturday. Gusty winds especially along coastal areas for Saturday. Cannot rule out isolated showers on Sunday before drier weather returns Sunday night into the start of the upcoming week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
Made several changes in the latest update. Most importantly bumped up wind speeds and gusts given the current observations. Nudged things toward the latest HRRRE and NAMNest guidance, which are handling things well. Only increases speeds/gusts another 5 mph for inland, but more substantially gust wise over the waters. Still expect the downward trend in wind speeds and gusts to continue tonight and Thursday.
On top of this expanded the precipitation chances a bit further inland given there still is isolated to scattered rain showers. Should see this activity winding down and diminishing as the night progresses and as the storm moves further offshore.
Lastly, decreased low temperatures a bit further given we were a bit too warm in comparison to the current obs. Lows range from the mid to upper 30s across the higher terrain and the 40s elsewhere.
Previous discussion from 330 PM... Low pressure south of Nantucket moves farther offshore. Strong pressure gradient trailing the low still hangs over Srn New England, but this will also move offshore tonight. That will mean lingering north-northeast wind, especially along the coastline.
Winds continue to diminish, but reports still show gusts at or near 40 kt along the South Coast and Cape/Islands. As such, have converted headlines in this area to a Wind Advisory.
Cross-sections show slowly diminishing moisture tonight, but extending from 700 to 900-mb. Cross-sections also show increasing subsidence as high pressure approaches. Will forecast partial clearing in the CT Valley and Central Hills, mainly after midnight.
Dew points, which were in the 40s in the afternoon, will also dry out some. Expect dews to range from the mid 30s through the 40s by late tonight. Radiational cooling will be tough, but the partial clearing and diminishing wind may favor this in areas west of the CT River. Expect overnight min temps in the upper 30s and lower 40s in parts of the Berkshire East Slope, while most of Srn New England will be in the 40s and lower 50s.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Thursday Night
Overview... Quebec high pressure sweeps over New England Thursday, bringing a short period of dry weather.
Details... Clouds linger over Cape Cod and Islands Thursday, but clearing skies expected inland. Where skies show sun, expect mixing to reach up to 900-mb. Temps at that level will be 2-4C, equiv to minus 1 to minus 3C at 850 mb and supporting max surface temps in the 50s.
Low pressure moves up through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. This may bring increasing east winds near the surface. These east winds may draw in the cloud cover over the Cape and the ocean waters to the east. best chance of fair skies will be in western MA, where light wind and fair skies would favor radiational cooling, and dew points in the mid 30s would allow similar temps. This would mean a frosty night where the clouds don't return, while areas that get the clouds will stay in the 40s.
Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
* Main concern of the extended is a potential weak coastal storm impacting the region Friday night through Sunday. Washout anticipated for Saturday with gusty winds especially along the coastline.
* Rest of extended generally looks dry and quiet with cooler temperatures.
Friday... Generally anticipated dry and quiet weather through much of Friday. Ridge axis in place over the Mid Atlantic early on Friday with a deep cutoff over the TN/Mid Mississippi Valley. The ridge will build northeastward through southern New England into the Gulf of Maine by the evening. The cutoff will lift into the OH Valley/Mid Atlantic as the day progresses. Surface high builds over Quebec Province while a wrapped up low lifts into the Mid Atlantic.
High pressure generally in control of the weather for much of Friday, but will see increasing cloud cover ahead of the incoming system. Cannot completely rule out a shower or two late in the day due to the incoming system, but would be relatively light. Expect seasonable temperatures with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s across the higher terrain to the low 60s across Cape Cod and the Islands.
Friday night through Sunday... Main focus of the extended forecast is on this period. Another potential coastal low to impact the region Friday night through Saturday. Could see still have some lighter rain showers around during the day Sunday before things dry out. Large cutoff in place over the OH/TN Valley Friday night lifts into the Eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic on Saturday. The cutoff eventually gets kicked into northern New England/offshore on Sunday and a ridge builds in behind it. At the surface a wrapped up low remains in place over the Eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic on Saturday. The occluded front associated with the system lifts into and through southern New England on Saturday. There could potentially be a weak secondary coastal low that develops and moves through. The well wrapped up low over the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic lifts into southern New England Saturday night before moving into northern New England on Sunday.
Main concerns during this period is heavy rainfall at times on Saturday and gusty winds. Uncertain on how much of the wind will mix down with a southeasterly 30-60 kt low level jet at 925 hPa. NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings show that there may be a decent inversion in place given the warm air advection, which could limit how much mixes down. Will have a tight pressure gradient in place. Given the low level jet in place and tight pressure gradient did bump up wind speeds/gusts to the NBM90th percentile of guidance. Timeline wise will see speeds/gusts ramping up early on Saturday and be the strongest along eastern coastal areas during the afternoon. The speeds/gusts diminish as the jet lifts out during the evening. This could prolong/delay any restoration efforts from the Nor'Easter today.
The other concern with this system is the potential for heavy rainfall. This risk would be maximized if a secondary low develops offshore as some guidance suggests, but will need to see how things evolve in future updates to really hone in on this risk. Will see a PWAT (Precipitable Water) plume of 1-1.5 inches advecting in. This is coupled with the dynamics in place and low level jet that there should be fairly widespread 1-2" of rainfall. Blended the latest NBM with the WPC guidance, which think better highligheights the potential for some heavier Quantitative Precipitation Forecast especially across the higher terrain where the may be additional lift due to easterly flow. Looks like a washout on Saturday with the heaviest rainfall during the day. Precipitation winds down and becomes more showery late on Saturday and isolated on Sunday. Lastly, cannot completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder across eastern areas during the day. There is some instability available, but will largely depend on if we get into the warm sector. Have not included the thunder mention at this point for the forecast.
Temperature wise will see increasing readings through the weekend given the southeasterly/southerly flow. Highs on Saturday range from the 50s across the higher terrain to low to mid 60s elsewhere. For Sunday high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
Sunday Night through Tuesday... Generally expecting drier weather in store through much of this period. A ridge axis builds in for Sunday night through Monday. Next potential shot for some light showers comes on Tuesday as a shortwave lifts in from the Great Lakes. Temperatures on a downward trend with northwesterly and westerly flow advecting cooler air into the region.
High pressure back in place for Sunday night into Monday. A weak low swings nearby on Tuesday and could bring a few light showers. Went with the NBM as temperatures look reasonable at this time with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures getting into the 30s and 40s for Monday night and Tuesday night.
Forecaster Confidence Levels.
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Increased wind speeds and gusts in the latest update. Still anticipating occasional storm force gusts across the outer waters until late tonight. Will have solid Gale Force winds and gusts for much of tonight, but will be on the downward trend as the storm moves further offshore. Increased wave heigheights across mainly MA/Ipswich Bay as obs were much higher than current forecast. This puts waves in the 15-20 ft range until late tonight and diminishing to 10-15 ft after midnight.
Discussion from 330 PM... Winds continue to diminish, with most buoy reports showing gusts 35 to 45 kt. Gale Headlines remain in place through most of the night.
Winds and seas subside as offshore low pressure moves farther out to sea. High pressure builds over the Srn New England waters Thursday. Expect the last of the Gale winds should end by Thursday morning. Seas of 5 feet or higher will continue.nue past Thursday night.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for MAZ020-021. Coastal Flood Warning until 7pm EDT this evening for MAZ019- 022. Wind Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for MAZ019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for MAZ007- 015-016-023-024. RI...Wind Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
Gale Warning until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235-237-250- 254>256. Gale Warning until 4am EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 6am EDT Thursday for ANZ251.