Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Some Tstms May Produce Heavy Rainfall. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. Some Tstms May Produce Heavy Rainfall.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
931am EDT Thu July 19 2018
Synopsis: High pressure over New England provides warm afternoons and cool nigheights along with comfortable humidity thru Friday, possibly lingering into Saturday. Low pressure moves up the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to southern New England. Then next week the Bermuda high builds northwest into southern New England providing tropical humidity along with warm temperatures and periods of heavy showers from time to time, especially across western MA/CT.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
930 am update... High pressure in control will result in a continued sunny and beautiful day. Afternoon high temps should top out in the upper 70s to the lower 80s...with perhaps a few middle 80s in the lower CT River Valley. Light winds along with low humidity will make it a great day for outdoor activities
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Friday
Tonight... Possibility of developing marine stratus / fog. High pressure shifts E, return light S flow, increasing surface dewpoints back up towards the 60s. With clear conditions, another opportunistic period of radiational cooling. Low probability signaled of lower conditions with possible reduced visibility per SREF probabilities. Will hint at potential impacts across S-coastal New England towards Friday morning.
Friday... Another dry, pleasant Summer day. If any marine stratus / fog, eroding during the morning hours, looking to linger offshore. H85 temperatures slightly warmer aloft around +12C allowing highs to warm into the low to mid 80s. Onshore flow, continued rising dewpoints. Scattered to broken cloud decks across interior S New England
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
4am update... Highlights... * Dry pleasant weather with comfortable humidity into Sat * T-storms with heavy rain & gusty winds likely Sat ngt/Sunday AM * Tropical humidity and downpours from time to time next week
Friday night/Saturday... East coast ridging lingers and provides dry weather into at least early Sat. Still comfortable airmass with 00z GEFS indicating PWATs -1 standard deviations over southern New England. This will provide another cool night with lows Sat morning in the 50s regionwide. Given radiational cooling setup will derive mins from the cooler MOS guidance. Dilemma for Sat is low clouds and drizzle offshore associated with approaching warm front. Some of the guidance showing this low level moisture coming onshore during the day. Lots of uncertainty here regarding timing but model trends have been speeding up arrival of this low level moisture. So for now will go with a dry morning but then increasing probability of light rain/drizzle coming onshore Sat afternoon from southeast to northwest. Regarding temps, increasing clouds and developing onshore flow along with possible afternoon rain will likely keep temps in the 70s, possibly low 80s CT river valley where dry weather may prevail much of the day.
Saturday night/Sunday... Very anomalous weather pattern evolving with robust northern stream trough entering the OH valley and taking on a negative tilt along the eastern seaboard. In addition, trough-ridge half wavelength collapsing, providing vigorous cyclonic flow aloft across southern New England. At the surface this gives way to an impressive baroclinic wave traversing NJ with attending warm front approaching southern New England. Two concerns with these features, very anomalous low level southeast jet of +3 standard deviations will result in tropical moisture surging northward with PWATs over 2 inches advecting across southern New England. Thus torrential downpours possible given strong forcing for ascent within this tropical airmass. In addition anomalous low level jet will provide elevated instability. Further more low level inversion weakens in approaching warm sector as dew pts climb into the low 70s. Thus low LCLs combined with strong low level shear vicinity of warm front will have to be watched for possible rotating T-storms late Sat night into Sunday morning. Improving/drying trend Sunday afternoon as front lifts north and warm sector overspreads the region along with dry slot aloft.
Next Week... Forecast dilemma this period revolves around how far northwest subtropical ridge retrogrades and shunts moisture plume to the northwest. Ensembles and deterministic guidance beginning to trend/converge on the idea of subtropical ridge building far enough west with 594 dam 500 mb heigheights into southeast MA Tuesday and Wed. Can see this in lowering Precipitable Water and K indice fields. This would suggest risk of tropical showers Monday over the region followed by a possible drying trend Tuesday and Wednesday especially over RI and eastern MA, with greatest risk of showers Tuesday and Wednesday over western MA/CT. High uncertainty here given the time range. Temp anomalies suggest near normal highs of 80-85 next week but given tropical airmass overnight lows will be warmer than normal.
Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.
High pressure gradually shifting E and offshore. Light winds today with near-shore, onshore sea-breezes, becoming S tonight into Friday. With S flow, increasing potential for marine stratus / fog, possible reductions in visibility around the near-shore. Seas throughout remaining below 5 feet.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None