Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Thu Night...W Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less.|
|Sat And Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain And Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Sun And Sun Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1035am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
Sunny skies were the rule across most of the region at mid morning. However, clouds linger along the south coast, Cape Cod and the islands which may linger from time to time through tonight. Chilly temperatures expected into Thursday before moderating on Friday as high pressure builds in. Low pressure tracking offshore Saturday may bring a period of snow and/or rain especially across southeast Massachusetts. Dry but blustery weather follows Sunday behind the departing ocean storm. Latest trends suggest dry and seasonable weather Monday followed by a risk for precipitation Tuesday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Back edge of low clouds continues to steadily shift S, reaching the S coast of Mass/RI at 15Z. Will likely see the low clouds linger across Cape Cod and the islands on the N-NW winds with gusts up to around 20 kt at times especially across the outer Cape and Nantucket.
Noted the last of the ocean effect precipitation ending E of Cape Cod on the KBOX 88D radar imagery by mid morning, though any precip tended to remain E of the Cape with the offshore wind in place.
Temps at 15Z were running from the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the mid-upper 30s across portions of the coastal plain. With full sun, temps should recover to the mid 30s to near 40, except in the 30 to 35 degree range across the higher terrain
Previous Discussion... Ridge axis will build into the central Great Lakes extending northward to western Quebec today. At the surface, high pressure will build into Quebec. Cold air will continue to advect into southern New England with northerly 850 hPa flow of -5 to -10 degree Celsius air sliding in.
Drier air will filter in as the shortwave exits, which will bring an end to any ocean effect showers.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Thursday
Dry and quiet weather tonight and on Thursday. The ridge axis will build eastward from the central Great Lakes into New England and eastern Quebec.
Tonight... Flow aloft will be northerly as the ridge gradually builds eastward. This will advect -6 to -10 degree Celsius 850 hPa air into the region. This flow and fetch will be conducive for ocean effect clouds to develop across Cape Cod and the Islands. Do not anticipate any showers to develop as there is not much lift present where the highest relative humidity is. Leaned on the latest HREF and NAMNest guidance to get a handle on this.
The rest of southern New England will see clear skies with light winds. The combination of clear skies and light winds will result in strong radiational cooling. Knocked down low temperatures a few more degrees compared to the previous forecast by nudging things toward the 10th percentile of guidance. Temperatures will be below normal with lows ranging from the single digits above zero across the higher elevations to the teens and low 20s along the coast.
Thursday... High pressure continues to build in. Will see the mid level ridge axis slide into southern New England during the afternoon. This will shift flow aloft to a westerly and eventually a southwesterly direction, which will begin advecting milder air in. During this same time a shortwave trough will lift from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes. Despite the high, expect high clouds to slide in from southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Cape Cod and the Islands should see any ocean effect clouds diminish by the afternoon as flow becomes westerly.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Highlights... * Friday - Pick of the week with highs in the low 40s, partial sunshine and light winds
* Still monitoring potential storm Saturday/Sat night, but latest trends support offshore track/glancing blow & short duration event
* Dry and blustery Sunday, mild & dry Monday with chance of precipitation Tuesday
Details... Thursday night ... Tranquil/dry weather with 1025+ mb high over southern New England. However light winds, mostly clear skies and a dry atmosphere will result in a chilly night. Thus have leaned toward the colder MOS guidance to derive min temps which yields lows in the teens most locations, 20-25 in the urban areas.
Friday ... Likely the pick of the week with short wave ridging providing at least partial sunshine, light winds and highs in the lower 40s.
Saturday ... Large scale/synoptic flow favors a progressive/ unphased and offshore track given lack of downstream/high latitude blocking along with very fast flow upstream across the CONUS. 00z guidance (both deterministic and ensembles) support this outcome, with just a glancing blow to southeast MA. In addition airmass is very marginal to support snow so likely mixing with or changing to rain. Surface temps also marginal for accumulating snow. Thus overall the threat for significant accumulating snow remains very low. Although it is worth noting about 10 of the 50 members from the 00z Euro ensembles are fairly big hits for southern New England. This has been consistent from previous ensemble runs. So while significant snows are unlikely (reasons mentioned above) it is a non zero probability. Thus still too early (84+ hrs away) to completely dismiss. Will have to continue watching until better model clustering occurs especially ensembles. Jet energy of interest is currently still offshore of BC, an area lacking aircraft data/traffic and obviously sounding data. Will be interesting to see if any change in trends occur as it comes onshore with today's 12z run and especially following 00z model runs.
Sunday ... Likely becoming blustery and cooler behind departing ocean storm. Could be an isolated rain/snow shower with trailing short wave energy rotating across southern New England. Otherwise dry weather prevails. Temps likely remaining at least a few degs above normal however it will feel chilly given the strengthening NW wind.
Early Next Week ... Dry NW flow aloft likely persists into Monday yielding dry weather and temps continuing to run at least a few degs above normal. Upper air pattern remains progressive so overrunning precipitation possible by Tue. Marginal temps may result in some wintry precipitation possible but it's a long way off.
Short Term /through Thursday/... Expect winds to pick up across the eastern outer waters this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will become more northerly tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 kts across the eastern outer waters. Waves will build up to 5 ft across the far eastern outer waters. High confidence in the wind and wave height forecast.
Issued a Small Craft Advisory based on the winds and waves expected for the eastern outer waters.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Small Craft Advisory from 4pm this afternoon to 4pm EST Thursday for ANZ250-254.