Marine Weather Net

Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

THU

N
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ234 Forecast Issued: 103 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds, Becoming Sw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 7 Seconds.
Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.
Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.
Fri And Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 6 Seconds.
Sat Through Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1017pm EDT Tuesday May 28 2024

Synopsis
Summer warmth and humidity Tuesday will be replaced by more seasonable, cooler weather along with lower humidity Wednesday through Friday. Dry weather through Wednesday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Drier weather with plentiful sunshine for Friday. After a few days of temperatures at or slightly cooler than normal, the weekend into Monday offers a warming trend toward above normal temperatures and still tolerable humidity levels. Drier weather should generally prevail this weekend into Monday, though there is a chance for showers or thunderstorms on Sunday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7am WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Update: 10:15PM

Pleasant evening underway with westerly breezes and dewpoints falling into the 50s, with current temps in the 60s, the urban center of Boston still holding onto the low 70s while Nantucket is the coolest spot in the upper 50s. The leading edge of upper level trough aloft is being marked by a line of clouds over the Berkshires. Overall should be a pretty tranquil evening, although especially in eastern MA and RI, temps could be a little slower to cool off as W winds should stay up for a good part of the night. That also may preclude patchy fog from developing, and the approaching dry advection may also limit the areal coverage of any fog which could develop. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Previous discussion:

Thru this evening... Beautiful spring weather across the region late this afternoon, with temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s, under partly to mostly sunny conditions. Good boundary layer mixing is supporting dew pts falling into the 50s from west to east late this afternoon. Dry weather expected, with just a 10-20% chance of an isolated shower/Tstm across western MA/CT, as cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft advects into the region from the west.

Overnight... Short wave moves across the region, ushering in drier, less humid and cooler weather across the region. Although, min temps in the mid to upper 50s tonight, will average 5-8 degs above normal. Any leftover evening clouds will dissipate overnight. Low prob of some patchy ground fog as radiational cooling develops.

.SHORT TERM /7am WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM

* Dry weather into Wednesday AM, then scatteredpm thunderstorms

Wednesday... Dry weather Wedam along with sunshine. However, cyclonic flow aloft combined with 500 mb temps lowering to -18C yields steepening mid level lapse rates on the order of 6.5 to 7.0C/KM. This combined with 0-6 km deep layer shear of 25-35 kt should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms. Given the cold air aloft and upper jet streak offshore, these parameters overlap across RI and southeast MA. This is where there will likely be sufficient instability and shear to support a few storms with small hail. Given the steep lapse rates, a few storms could overachieve and possibly approach severe across RI and southeast MA. Nonetheless, most if not all storms will be sub-severe. Not a washout, but definitely will have to dodge a few storms Wed afternoon into early evening.

Not as warm or humid as today, with highs 75-80 Wednesday and more comfortable dew pts in the 50s. Coolest temps along the coast withpm seabreezes.

Wednesday night... Early evening diurnal convection/thunderstorms dissipate with sunset, given loss of daytime heating and upper jet stream exiting, decreasing deep layer shear. Thus, drying trends thru the evening. However, another round of showers is possible late Wednesday night and toward Thu morning, as a trailing short wave approaches the region. Highest probs for this second round of showers will be along the south coast. Seasonable temps with lows 50-55 and light onshore winds in the evening becoming north overnight.

Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
330 PM

Highlights:

* Periods of showers with embedded thundershowers on Thurs, though diminishing by evening. No severe weather or soaking rains are anticipated. Temps slightly cooler than normal.

* Drier weather on Fri with seabreezes near the coasts.

* Gradual warming trend into the weekend into early next week. While drier weather prevails, there is a small window of opportunity for hit or miss showers or storms on Sunday.

Details:

Thursday and Friday:

12z ensembles continue to indicate that upper-level longwave troughing and an associated colder pool of air aloft will govern the weather over SNE through this forecast period.

Shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the longwave trough from Wednesday night will continue to promote the potential for showers or embedded thundershowers on Thurs, with somewhat better chances over the southern third of SNE. With limited deep moisture (PWAT (Precipitable Water) values 0.8-1 inch), don't see this being a substantial precipitation maker, with NBM 4.2-based Quantitative Precipitation Forecast probs indicating moderate probs (30-50%) of 24-hr rain over a quarter inch, and lower to moderate (25-30%) for 24 hr rain over a half inch. With the shortwave moving offshore during the evening, highest Probability of Precipitation during the daytime hrs and then diminishing in coverage late afternoon to early evening. With a good amt of cloud cover around and periodic showers to dodge, showed cooler highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

For Fri...though we are still under troughing aloft, sprawling surface high pressure over the Gt Lakes and the northern Appalachians will begin to ridge into the area, supporting abundant sunshine. Local seabreezes near the coasts should also develop and keep temps along the shore a little cooler, but Fri looks to be shaping up to be a really nice day with highs in the lower to mid 70s with mid 60s along the coasts.

The Weekend into Monday:

Consistent with prior forecasts, 12z ensembles continue to show pattern change that takes place in mid/upper levels early this weekend, as the mid/upper trough shifts offshore and to be replaced by 500 mb height rises. With that will bring a warming trend toward more summerlike temperatures; Sat looks to be the coolest day with highs in the mid to upper 70s, but by Sunday and Monday we should see highs reach into the lower to mid 80s for most away from the coasts. Humidity levels will be creeping up too, especially Sunday and Mon, but should still be tolerable.

It's also a generally dry forecast period with a good amount of sunshine each day. Did include a slight-chance mention of showers/t- storms later on Sunday as the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) shows what could be a convectively- augmented vort max from the upper Midwest nearing the Northeast states; as of now it doesn't have much support from the other global models, but it's shown this signal over the last couple of its model runs and it can't be completely discounted as an outcome as yet. But all in all, outlook favors drier weather.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight... SW winds 15-20 kt with seas up to 5 ft offshore this evening, will slacken and become westerly overnight. This shorter fetch from SW to W will slowly subside seas. Low clouds and fog east of Cape Cod at 330 pm will continue moving farther offshore tonight.

Wednesday...light west winds become locally onshore in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, most numerous near shore. A few storms may contain small hail.

Wednesday night...light onshore winds in the evening become light north overnight. Early evening scattered showers/thunderstorms dissipate late evening. However, a new area of showers may develop late Wednesday night or toward Thu morning across the southern waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Wednesday for ANZ250- 254>256.