Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...S Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Areas Of Fog. A Chance Of Showers. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Wed...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri And Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
149am EDT Monday September 28 2020
Weak low pressure area moving up the coast may trigger a few showers tonight and Monday. Increasingly moist southerly flow out ahead of a cold front will bring showers Tuesday. The greatest chance of rain comes with a series of frontal systems Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal until the front cools things down by late week.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
No changes in the latest update forecast remains on track.
Northern stream shortwave digging over the Midwest will become a high-amplitude trough over the Eastern USA early this week. This kicks out current shortwave ridge off to the east and turns the upper flow over us out of the southwest.
A shortwave embedded in the southwest flow will approach New England tonight, supported by a weak jet that passes to our west. This will generate scattered showers over Srn New England overnight. But with limited moisture expect any showers to be light.
With dew points in the mid 60s, expect similar min temperatures.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
Monday... Shortwave continues to move overhead, with clouds and scattered showers. As with tonight, the available moisture will be limited and thus rain amounts will be light. Expect similar max temperatures to today.
Monday night... The Monday shortwave moves off to the east. Expect mainly rain- free weather. Dew points will still be in the mid 60s
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
High pressure over the Atlantic continues to pump warm moist air into the region with a moderate southerly flow on Tuesday. A weak upper-level vorticity max embedded within the large scale flow will provide sufficient forcing for a few scattered showers on Tuesday afternoon. Storm Prediction Center has the area underneath a general risk for thunderstorms on Tuesday as MLCAPE values are expected to exceed 200 J/kg across most of the forecast region. While bulk shear values are certainly favorable (~ 30 kts), the forcing available doesn't appear to be enough to warrant thunderstorm chances for our area.
Tuesday night begins a 48 hour period of much needed rainfall for southern New England. This 48 hour period will be comprised of 2 separate events. The first event will occur Tuesday night into late Wednesday morning as an upper-level low over Canada and associated cold front lifts northeast over New England. With abundant moisture in place from the persistent moist southerly flow the past few days, confidence is increasing that western MA/CT will see some substantial rainfall (1-2"). Because the lifting cold front will not make it to the eastern zones, forcing over those areas will not be as strong, and thus less rainfall is forecast. Nonetheless, forcing over the eastern zones should be sufficient enough for light- moderate rain showers.
While there is some uncertainty in the timing between these two events, the consensus among the models is that there will be a period of lighter rainfall Wednesday afternoon before event number 2 unfolds. Wednesday night, an upper-level low from the south will move up the east coast and give us our second round of heavy rainfall. This time however, the eastern zones are expected so see more significant rainfall. Showers with this secondary low should continue well into Thursday morning before tapering off Thursday afternoon. When all is said and done, we could see anywhere from 1.5- 3" of new rainfall across portions of the forecast area.
Cooler drier air filters in behind the upper-level low that exits the region Thursday. Another round of showers may be possible Friday night into Saturday, but confidence is low at this time. High pressure and more seasonable temperatures will build into the region for Saturday and Sunday.
A disturbance moving up from the Mid Atlantic coast will bring a chance of showers tonight into Monday. Expect increasing south winds and building seas. Patches of fog may bring visibilities 1 to 3 miles. Small Craft Advisory continues for some of the southern coastal waters due to marginal rough seas. Gusts up to 20 kt.
Scattered showers move off to the east Monday night. Reduced visibilities in patchy fog overnight. South winds less than 20 kt. Seas up to 5 feet on the exposed southern waters, less than 5 feet on all other waters.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers.
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for ANZ235.