Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night Through Sat Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sun Through Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
217am EST Thu Jan 21 2021
An upper level disturbance moves off to the east this evening, followed by colder air tonight and Thursday. Mainly dry Thursday night into Friday as a clipper low passes to our north. A strong cold front Friday night will bring much colder and blustery conditions for the weekend. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley will likely redevelop off the mid-Atlantic coast early next week and this could impact Southern New England, but it is too early to be certain.
Near Term - Through Today
Our region will be on the southern periphery of a low pressure moving across southeast Canada today. The warm front of this low pressure should move to our north later this morning, will the cold front of this system approaching from the west late today. A mid level cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) is expected to remain to our north as well, indicating meager lift across southern New England. The limiting factor for precipitation is moisture, which will be limited. Thinking most of our region will remain dry but cloudy, with the exception being the higher terrain of western MA. Even there any snow accumulations should be light, generally an inch or less.
Expecting near to slightly above normal temperatures with southwest winds developing behind a warm front.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6pm FRIDAY/... The weak cold front associated with a low pressure across southeast Canada should move through this evening. This will mean clearing skies with colder air tonight into Friday. The presence of the low pressure and mid level cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) to our north may keep some lingering clouds north of the Mass Pike. Winds turn westerly tonight, and become gusty Friday.
Mainly dry conditions with temperatures trending above normal once more.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
Highlights... * Strong cold front moves through Fri night. Blustery/windy and much colder Sat and Sunday. Sub-zero wind chills possible Sat night in the interior, with below-normal temps.
* Low pressure moving east from the Ohio Valley will redevelop along the mid-Atlantic coast Monday. The combined system could produce some snow for southern New England, although the main low should remain rather far to the south. Stay tuned.
A strong cold front will surge across southern New England. Not much moisture for the front to work with and chances for frontal snow showers look limited. Look for increasingly blustery/gusty conditions as 925 mb temps look to fall to values around -8 to -12C. Lows mid teens to lower 20s with increasing northwest winds/gusts. Should see wind chills around +5 to +10F in interior MA, and around the mid teens eastern MA/RI into much of northern CT.
Saturday and Sunday:
This weekend, southern New England will be situated between a strong 1030 mb high pressure moving from the midwest to the Ohio Valley...and a 997 mb low pressure south of Nova Scotia. The result will be a real shot of colder air moving across the area on strong northwesterly winds. Temperatures at 850 mb drop as low as -16C late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Skies should be mainly sunny, but high temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds should gust up to 30-35 mph at times. Wind gusts could approach Wind Advisory criteria, especially near Cape Cod/Islands toward evening.
On Saturday night, low temperatures will dip to single digits along the slopes of the Berkshires and to lower and mid teens elsewhere. Models show that 850 mb winds could peak at 50 kt at 850 mb by 12Z Sunday morning. So, with winds remaining at 10-20 mph with some 20 to 30+ mph gusts overnight, wind chill indices could drop to 0 to 5 below zero across much of western and central MA and northern CT.
With the offshore flow, ocean effect snow showers will remain far enough off the east coast, just east of our coastal waters.
Still mainly sunny, but blustery and cold Sunday with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, except only mid 20s along the slopes of the Berkshires.
Monday into Tuesday... After a fairly active/dominant northern- stream regime, pattern starts to transition toward a more zonally-oriented pattern. Will have to keep tabs on active southern-branch energy that ejects out of the desert southwest/southern Rockies region, which induces cyclogenesis in the south-central Plains region early Mon.
This low is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley Monday then redevelop along the mid-Atlantic coast Monday evening. It looks like cloudiness will increase across all of southern New England Monday with the combination of these systems. The GFS and its ensembles keep the low far enough south to cause just a glancing impact...light snow to southernmost parts of southern New England. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) operational run has enough moisture to cause a few inches of snow across our region, but its ensembles do indicate a track significantly south of the region. It is too early to know the storm track and impacts and cannot rule out a more northward shift in future runs...will need to keep an eye on the progress of this system over the next several days.
Wednesday... Strong high pressure builds in from the northwest, with dry and cold weather continuing. Highs still only in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
A weak ridge of high pressure will move offshore this morning. Winds shifting to SW around daybreak as a warm front crosses the southern waters this morning, and the eastern waters early this afternoon. Winds expected to shift from the west tonight into Friday behind a weak cold front. Rough seas around 5 feet are most likely across the outer southern coastal waters into Friday.
Small Craft Advisories continue, especially across the southern coastal waters. It is expected that there will be brief periods where conditions improve to less than thresholds. The advisories were simply continued to avoid having to make frequent changes.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Saturday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.
NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EST this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Friday for ANZ254>256.