Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds. |
| Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Sw 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Tue And Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 242pm EDT Sat May 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Only change was to increase probability of precipitation overnight with some isolated showers. .KEY MESSAGES... - Streak of well above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. There is an increasing chance for record warm temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, some of which may be strong. - Unseasonably warm Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms possible later in the day with some potentially strong to severe. - Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Streak of well above normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. There is an increasing chance for record warm temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday some of which may be strong. Mainly dry and warmer for the rest of the day with high pressure largely in control of the weather pattern. A few widely scattered showers are possible overnight as a weakening batch of convection makes its way through the region. Best chance will be across portions of northern and central Massachusetts where forcing will be a bit more concentrated. High confidence continues in a pattern change to unseasonable warm temperatures for the first half of next week and potentially flirting with record highs on Tue/Wed. Strong Bermuda ridge pushes 500mb heigheights to 588-590 dm. GEFS/EPS ensembles show a 60-80 percent chance of high temps of at least 90 across the CWA. This is a strong signal considering we are still several days away from this event! More significant warm up begins Sunday as southwest flow helps warm temps into the middle 80s for much of the interior. Elsewhere, water temps in the 50s will help keep temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees cooler. High pressure to the N of the region shifts winds to the NE on Monday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures, especially near the coast. Highs Monday on the immediate coast probably in the upper 60s and 70s while 80+ risk will be confined to the interior. The hottest days look to be Tuesday and/or Wednesday depending on the timing of a cold front. 925T near +24C should result in the potential for high temperatures to climb into the 90s away from any modified marine influences. This may result in record high temperatures being challenged at least in areas away from the south coast. Main factor acting against realizing the widespread mid 90s advertised by the NBM will be cloud cover extent. Should be a somewhat drier heat with dewpoints in the lower 50s Tuesday. Finally, guidance continues to show a chance for isolated strong to sever thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. There should be plenty of instability for storms with the NBM showing a widespread 40-60% chance of values exceeding 1000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. The limiting factor at this time is the lack of wind shear and forcing as a front remains well to the west. Thus, at this time, the coverage of storms remains in question. KEY MESSAGE 2...Unseasonably warm Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms possible later in the day with some potentially strong to severe. A low pressure system and attendant cold front is expected to track across the northeast Wednesday into Thursday. Depending on the timing of the cold front, we may see one last day of above normal high temperatures in southern New England. This is supported by warm 925mb temperatures bumping up to 23-25C with enhancement from the WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) ahead of the approaching system. There is high confidence for temperatures 80F+ with ensembles indicating potential for highs around 90 in the valleys inland. South coast and Cape and Islands will stay in the 70s and low 80s from the southwesterly onshore flow. Another early season hot day, so be sure to hydrate, take breaks, and have a cool place to do so. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow aloft helps to advect in Gulf moisture as instability builds ahead of the frontal system with the ample heating. MLCAPE values appear on the marginal side, although shear appear sufficient with the help of a jet. With the added forcing of the front, this should support scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day with potential for some storms being strong to severe. Forecast soundings indicate a good amount of dry air at the surface which may be a signal for strong downdrafts (gusty winds) within any strong-severe storms. The assorted ML guidance shows a signal with low probabilities for severe at this time. We are still a ways out and details on the timing of the front will need to be ironed out more before confidence increases in the severe potential. Stay tuned. KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler, more seasonable temperatures late week. A cold front will swing through by Thursday bringing in a cooler airmass. This will bring in more seasonable/seasonably cool temperatures late-week with mainly dry conditions and northerly component flow. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect on most waters as easterly swell that brings elevated seas in the 4-7 ft range tonight. Winds shift W tonight into Sunday. Given the continued elevated seas and increase in winds tomorrow, SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been extended through Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to remain elevated then gradually fall as high pressure builds in. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for ANZ235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256. |
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