Vineyard Sound Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Tonight...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 8 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 12 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sat Through Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 137pm EDT Wednesday Mar 26 2025 Synopsis A fast moving disturbance may trigger a few brief passing rain/high terrain snow showers Thursday night. Dry and pleasant weather follows for Friday. Periods of unsettled weather are on tap Friday night through Monday with temperatures highly uncertain depending on the location of a backdoor front...but leaning towards temps being on the chilly side except perhaps for parts of Connecticut and southwest Massachusetts. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening Key Messages: * Rain moves through far southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and the islands this morning. * Mid-level disturbance this afternoon may bring scattered showers, including graupel or snow over higher elevations. A quiet morning for most of southern New England, but areas in far southeastern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and the islands will see periods of rain through mid to late morning. A weak low- pressure system developed off the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight, and the latest model consensus has shifted slightly north, though the highest confidence in measurable rainfall remains south and east of the Cape Cod Canal. 850mb temperatures range from -2C to -4C, while surface temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s. This supports predominantly rain, though a brief rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out if the precipitation extends further northwest. The system moves northeast, with precipitation ending across the outer Cape and Nantucket by late morning. Come this afternoon, a mid-level shortwave and associated cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) will move into the region, with 500mb temperatures around -34C. Well mixed boundary layer, with steep low-level lapse rates, will likely support convective/pop-up showers across southern New England. Some of these showers may produce snow over the higher elevations and could contain graupel. Despite the deep mixing, winds aloft are relatively weak, limiting the gust potential this afternoon to around 20 mph. High temperatures will range from the 40s to near 50F along the coastal plain. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6pm Thursday Key Messages: * Clearing skies tonight will give way to a breezy and seasonably cool Thursday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Tonight: Mid-level low exits to the east, with rising heigheights and increasing surface pressure to the southwest. Skies will clear, but a steady northwest flow will limit radiational cooling. Expecting a seasonably cool night, with lows in the 20s inland and around 30F along the coast. Cities like Boston may stay slightly warmer, with lows in the mid-30s. Thursday: High pressure to the southwest and low pressure over the Maritimes will maintain northwest flow, making for a breezy day with gusts around 20 mph. With rising 500mb heigheights and decreasing moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) below 0.15"), skies will remain mostly clear. But with cooler temperatures aloft, -7C at 850mb, will keep highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday Key Messages: * A few brief rain/high terrain snow showers possible Thu night * Dry & pleasant on Friday with highs mainly in the 50s * Periods of unsettled/wet weather Fri night through Monday with backdoor cold in the vicinity of SNE with highs 30s/40s north of the front and 60s/70s to the south of the boundary * Current indications are that much of our region will be on the chilly side this weekend, but parts of CT/southwest MA may warm sector Sat which could allow for a 30-40 degree temp spread in SNE Details... Thursday night... Another fast moving moisture starved shortwave will cross the region Thu night. There might be enough moisture for a brief spot shower/high terrain snow shower...but generally dry weather will prevail.. Lows should be mainly in the upper 20s to the middle 30s. Friday... A brief ridge of high pressure builds in behind the shortwave on Fri. This will result in a dry day with pleasant afternoon temps. Highs should top out mainly in the 50s. Some WNW wind gusts of 20+ mph are possible. Friday night through Monday... ' A tricky forecast in this period as low pressure across the central Plains lifts northeastward towards the Great Lakes. At the same time...high pressure building across eastern Canada will allow for a backdoor cold front to be in the vicinity of southern New England. There is high uncertainty as to where this front sets up...but it is possible it may bisect somewhere across southern New England for a period of time. High temps are likely to only be in the 30s/40s north of the front and 60s/70s to the south of the boundary. For what its worth...the latest GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) draped across our southwest zones. This would result in cool temps for most of the region...but perhaps parts of CT/southwest MA may end up significantly warmer Sat depending on where the boundary sets up. If they are able to warm sector...we may see a 30-40 degree temp differential across the county warning area on Sat! It also looks unsettled at times Fri night through Monday with a few periods of wet weather likely. This will depend on the location of the boundary and timing of the individual waves of low pressure riding along it. So not expecting the entire time frame to be a washout...but there should be some periods of wet weather especially north of the frontal boundary. In fact...we can not rule out the low risk for a bit of snow/ice across the interior high terrain given strong high pressure in eastern Canada. That being said...odds favor mainly a liquid event for most of our region. Tuesday... Quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing...but we may be trending drier by Tue. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Thursday: High Confidence. Weak low pressure system brings a period of light rain to the southern and southeastern waters this morning. High pressure noses north late tonight into Thursday leading to drying conditions and clear skies. Seas throughout this time remain below advisory criteria. West to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots today, low chance of a weak sea breeze where wind shifts to the east (onshore) for eastern coastal Massachusetts. Tonight, wind shifts to the northwest through Thursday at 15 to 20 knots. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine None. |
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