Vineyard Sound Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: N 1 Foot At 4 Seconds And S 1 Foot At 6 Seconds. |
| Tonight...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: Nw 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Ne 1 Foot At 5 Seconds And Se 1 Foot At 9 Seconds, Becoming Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Nw 1 Foot At 4 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Foot Or Less. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 5 Seconds, Becoming W 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Foot Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: W 1 Foot At 2 Seconds And Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds, Becoming Sw 1 Foot At 3 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 1 Foot At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night Through Sat Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 247pm EDT Tuesday September 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool tonight. Heat and humidity begin to build forWednesday. - Shower chances Thursday evening into Friday morning, followed by drier conditions Friday. - Next chance for rain returns Sunday, though confidence in exact timing remains low at this time. KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool tonight. Heat and humidity begin to build for Wednesday. High pressure continues to dominate through Wednesday; however, it will begin to weaken and move offshore tonight/early Wednesday. This will lead to winds turning more south/southwesterly... advecting higher temps and dewpoints into southern New England into Wednesday. Given relatively clear skies and calm winds tonight, expecting another round of radiational cooling, although perhaps not as strong as last night. Overnight temps should drop into the upper 40s/low 50s tonight. Southwesterly flow Wednesday should begin to surge dewpoints back into the low 60s, and with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s or near 80, humidity will be on the rise leading to a muggy, sticky feeling. KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower chances Thursday evening into Friday morning, followed by drier conditions Friday. Mainly dry for Thursday; however, a northern-stream shortwave trough arrives late in the day and exits early Friday, bringing another round of showers to southern New England. Clouds are on the increase Thursday morning as higher moisture is pumped into the region. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are roughly 2 inches, which is near the maximum of climatology based on sounding climatology at Chatham. Where confidence is lacking is with the forcing. The 15/12z NAM 12km and, to some extent, the 3km (though model guidance doesn't extend beyond 00z Friday) show robust forcing near the NYC metro. Meanwhile, farther northeast, there is less-than- ideal forcing over southern New England. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) favors central New England for the better forcing, while the GFS (Global Forecast System) and Canadian have very minimal forcing across central New England. Another limiting factor is the presence of dry air aloft in the mid-levels. That being said, a subtle shift in the guidance to the northeast needs to be monitored, given the impressive swath of 2-4", locally 5 inches, of rain this past Sunday. We'd like more confidence in this part of the forecast given it is only a few days out, though when you have weakly forced environments, it can be difficult to pinpoint the exact details. Current thinking favors the forcing across central New England, as there has been continuity from run to run over the past 24 hours and across multiple models. Went with a blend for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast forecast between our current forecast, NBM, and WPC. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is generally a few hundredths of an inch along the southern coast and perhaps a tenth of an inch along our northern borders with VT/NH. That said, I wouldn't fully discredit the NAM just yet. Something to monitor. Stay tuned for updates! KEY MESSAGE 3...Next chance for rain returns Sunday, though confidence in exact timing remains low at this time. A transient high pressure system moving out of the southern Canadian Prairies brings a dry stretch of weather Friday and Saturday. Seasonably mild temperatures are expected Friday, with highs in the middle 70s and elevated dew points initially in the lower 60s, though those fall into the 50s by Friday afternoon. Then a shift to more fall-like conditions on Saturday, with highs in the middle to upper 60s and crisp air as dew points fall into the 40s to lower 50s. The weekend looks split, with rain returning Sunday. It's possible the early hours of the day start off dry, with conditions declining into the afternoon and evening. There remains a bit of spread among the deterministic models, though the AI GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that there will be unsettled conditions as an 850 mb open wave tries to close off across western NY. This would lead to increasing southwest flow and higher PWATs (Precipitable Waters) advecting into the region, with values around 1.5 inches. It's worth mentioning there is strong 1030+ mb high pressure building to the north during this time, and depending on the setup, this could suppress Sunday's system farther south. Yet another thing to monitor. Beyond Sunday into early next week, there is variability in the forecast, mainly with the arrival of high pressure expanding out of Quebec. This may impact how quickly the moisture departs Sunday into Monday. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High pressure overhead continues to bring light easterly winds through tonight. Winds shift around to the S/SW overnight into Wednesday as the high pressure center shifts offshore. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. Marine None. |
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