Vineyard Sound Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Ne Winds 40 To 50 Kt With Gusts Up To 60 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 7 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Snow. |
| Mon...N Winds 45 To 55 Kt With Gusts Up To 65 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: E 9 Ft At 11 Seconds And N 7 Ft At 7 Seconds. Snow. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt, Diminishing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 11 Seconds And N 4 Ft At 6 Seconds, Becoming Nw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Snow In The Evening. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: W 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 9 Seconds And Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds. Rain. Snow Likely In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Snow. |
| Thu Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Rain Likely. |
| Fri Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Seas Are Reported As Significant Wave Height, Which Is The Average Of The Highest Third Of The Waves. Individual Wave Heights May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 254am EST Monday Feb 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the ongoing forecast for today. .KEY MESSAGES... - A powerful winter storm brings significant to extreme impacts to much of the region into today, with heavy snowfall, damaging winds and blizzard conditions. Worst of the impacts will be felt south and east of the I-95 corridor. - Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas of moderate coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday morning high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. - Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday. KEY MESSAGE 1...A powerful winter storm brings significant to extreme impacts to much of the region into today, with heavy snowfall, damaging winds and blizzard conditions. Worst of the impacts will be felt south and east of the I-95 corridor. Overview: Not much change to the overall forecast. Very good model agreement in the 23/00Z suite, with respect to track and intensity, so we have high confidence on impacts across the region. Differences in precipitation totals have diminished, but not completely gone away. Still not completely certain on where the mesoscale banding will establish with duration, but continue to have greatest confidence it will be across RI and southeast MA. Timing and snowfall amounts: Light snowfall had arrived late last evening, but the observed heavier snowfall was lagging some of the high resolution guidance by a couple of hours. Even the 23/00Z HREF was about 3 hours slower with its heavy snow bands arriving over land. Since that appeared to have a good handle on the snow band from around Montauk NY to the south coast of RI/MA, leaned heavily on it for trying to time out the heavier snowfall this morning. Noted a pair of distinct bands already formed. One from eastern Long Island to the south coast of MA/RI that appears to be associated with deep frontogenesis in the 925-700 mb layer. Thinking this band stays just southeast of the I-95 corridor between Boston and Providence through mid morning, before pivoting farther west into the late morning and afternoon. The second band looked to be driven by a frontogentical band in the 850-700 mb layer, so not quite as intense but enough to lead to localized enhancement of snowfall. This second band shifts east through this afternoon as the offshore low pressure moves away from our region. Still expecting 2-3" per hour snowfall rates, roughly between 5-11am this morning across RI and southeast MA. after that time, still looking at snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour into this afternoon, which should still accumulate quickly. Noted some lightning well offshore, indicative of the rapid strengthening the low pressure was undergoing. Not ruling out the possibility of thundersnow, but not going to mention it in the forecast. Snowfall tapers off from west to east this afternoon into this evening. The significantly accumulating snowfall should be off the coast by about 7 PM, although some lighter snow could linger as late as about 10 PM. Impacts: We can't stress this enough, but this storm will likely bring extreme to destructive impacts south and east of the I-95 corridor, especially SE MA and Cape Cod due to the combination of heavy wet snow and damaging wind gusts. Heavy wet snowfall amounts up to 2 ft with damaging winds presents a serious concern for tree damage and power outages. Temperatures across SE MA will be around 32F during the brunt of the heavy snow, then will begin to fall into the 20s during this afternoon. Farther north and west into central and NE MA and western MA/CT, temperatures will be in the 20s for this entire event so the snow will be of a drier consistency, which will help to mitigate these impacts somewhat. These areas could still see some power outages but on a much lesser scale than what is experienced south and east of I-95. In terms of travel, it will be near impossible during the period of heaviest snow this morning with the heavy snowfall rates and whiteouts and as such travel is highly discouraged. Damaging wind: Wind will also be a serious concern, especially along and south and east of I-95 corridor. A 65 to 75 kt low level jet lifts north across the coastal plain today before pivoting across SE MA and Cape/Islands. We've seen stronger such jets, but what is different with this event is we have a favorable thermodynamic environment to promote efficient mixing. As such, soundings support hurricane force gusts to 70-80 mph for the outer Cape and Nantucket, 55-65 mph southern RI and SE MA and 40-50 mph for the interior north and west of I-95. These winds alone will be strong enough alone for tree damage and power outages south and east of I-95, not even considering the impacts from heavy wet snow. KEY MESSAGE 2...Expecting significant coastal impacts with areas moderate coastal flooding during the late tonight/early Monday morning high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early this morning (2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Warning continues for this portion of the coastline. Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, higher confidence in minor flooding as the greatest surge and highest tides will be several hours removed. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect. The greatest storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during low tide Monday (9-10AM). However, there could be enough storm surge for minor coastal flooding during the late day high tide (3-6PM). Although, given the astro tide is lower and winds will be more northerly, only expecting minor flooding. Nonetheless, a Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the afternoon high tide to account for any remaining excess water as well as uncertainty in the timing of decreasing winds. KEY MESSAGE 3... Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday. After lows in the teens and single digits Tuesday night, a clipper system emerges from the Great Lakes region Wednesday. A trailing warm front ahead of it brings a chance for some more wintry precipitation with the highest probs of accumulations in the interior. Elsewhere across the coastal plain thermal profiles appear to be marginal with surface temps warming into the mid and upper 30s. NBM has the highest probability for 1 inch of snow or greater snowfall totals in the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Snow may accumulate at lower elevations if the timing of the front but expecting temperatures to quickly warm into middle and upper 30s by the afternoon. Temperatures will have quite a significant diurnal variation Tuesday night through Wednesday with lows falling well below freezing and highs warming into the upper 30s. These warmer daytime temperatures will result in melting and refreezing of any melted snow, leading to slick conditions on untreated walkways. Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low pressure Thursday night into Friday. Details on the exact track and strength are highly uncertain at this time. That being said, ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track north and west of our CWA (County Warning Area) which result in more of the way of mixed precipitation. Again, we are nearly 6 days away from this system so exact details will be resolved in future forecast updates. Marine Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Very dangerous and life threatening storm for mariners through today. Storm Warnings are in effect. We expect wind gusts 55-65 kt peaking this morning into this afternoon. A few hurricane force gusts are likely. Winds will begin to diminish from the peak of the storm from late afternoon through this evening and drop below gale force late tonight. Seas peaking at 15-25 ft this afternoon and evening, with the highest seas over the eastern MA outer waters. Near zero vsby at times in heavy snow this morning, possibly briefly changing to rain east of Chatham to Nantucket. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain, chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely, chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain. NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Blizzard Warning until 7am EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Blizzard Warning until 7am EST Tuesday for MAZ004>007-009>024- 026. Winter Storm Warning until 7am EST Tuesday for MAZ002-003-008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7am EST this morning for MAZ007- 015-016. Coastal Flood Warning until 7am EST this morning for MAZ019- 022>024. Coastal Flood Watch from 1pm EST this afternoon through this evening for MAZ019-022>024. RI...Blizzard Warning until 7am EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008. Marine Storm Warning until 1am EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-250-251- 254>256. |
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