Calcasieu Lake Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Patchy Fog Through The Night. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Monday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West In The Afternoon. Lake Waters Choppy. Patchy Fog In The Morning. Showers Likely In The Morning. Thunderstorms Likely Through The Day. Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Monday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Rough. Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. Chance Of Rain Showers Through The Night. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Chance Of Rain Showers In The Morning. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Day. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Rain Showers In The Evening. Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms Through The Night. Chance Of Rain Showers After Midnight.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning.|
|Wednesday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Thursday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Friday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms After Midnight.|
| Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
909 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021
Onshore flow will continue a steady trend upwards tonight before weakening. Coastal patchy fog will be possible overnight into the morning hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin in earnest Monday morning and ratchet up during the day as a cold front approaches in the afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe on Monday. The front will stall Tuesday morning and meander about over the waters before washing early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated during this first half of the week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1126pm CST Sunday Dec 5 2021
For the 06/06Z TAF Issuance.
/issued 858pm CST Sunday Dec 5 2021/
UPDATE... Evening update.
Some low-level clouds are currently moving through the area this evening. Winds are expected to be higher tonight which should keep the chances for fog formation low. However, some patchy fog will be possible. Therefore, patchy fog was added to the forecast for the overnight hours into the morning as the front starts to approach the area.
Precipitation chances in the forecast appear to be on track so far, with the 00Z HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) showing the bulk of the precipitation starting to enter the area in the morning hours. Precipitation chances will continue.nue through the day. Showers and thunderstorms will be expected. Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather as the front makes it way through the area.
/issued 404pm CST Sunday Dec 5 2021/
SHORT TERM [Rest of today through Tuesday Night]... Tonight going into tomorrow will be the highlight of this forecast as a cold front slides into our CWA.
While the PW from this mornings sounding was not as high as yesterday, its still close to the 75th percentile. In addition to that, PWs ahead of the front range from 1.4 to 1.8, to which the lower end of that range is at the 90th percentile. 24H Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals will be around a half of an inch to two inches, with higher amounts possible. Despite the fact that we have been on the dry side as of recent, flash flooding is not out of the realm of possibility.
We remain in SPCs marginal risk for severe thunderstorms which was expanded to cover the entire CWA. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts however hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Instability is not all that impressive but there is sufficient low and deep layer shear to support modest updraft organization.
With this front moving thru over the Monday, temperatures will be similar to what we are experiencing today. Monday night will be nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler with temps in the 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday will be cooler with temps struggling to make it into the mid 60s at the most with overcast skies and scattered chances of showers and storms.
Long Term - Wednesday Through Sunday
A near zonal flow will develop aloft in wake of Tuesday's departing shortwave...however some lingering convection should be continuing over lower Acadiana at the beginning of the day on Wednesday where better lift/moisture will be last to depart as well as its proximity to the old frontal boundary meandering over the northern Gulf.
The boundary is forecast to begin lifting back nwd as a warm front on Thursday, with southerly flow ushering in a moderation of temps as well as the potential for a few showers as another weak impulse crosses the region.
Increasing southerly flow through the column will allow deeper moisture to pool over the forecast area on Friday...however building heights/warmer air aloft will effectively cap the atmosphere, keeping rain chances fairly slim through the day. Temps are forecast to warm to around 80, with lower 80s possible in places...15-20 degrees above seasonal norms and approaching records for the date.
The weekend shows the approach/passage of a more significant shortwave aloft and an associated surface front which will provide the basis for additional convection/higher rain chances. Forecast soundings are showing some potential for severe weather around the time of the frontal passage...this will be monitored in the days ahead. Precip should be ending from west to east by the end of the period.
Onshore flow will begin to tick upwards this afternoon and continue a steady trend upwards tonight before weakening. Rain chances will begin in earnest Monday morning and ratchet up during the day as a cold front approaches in the late afternoon and evening. The front will stall Tuesday morning and meander about over the waters before washing early Thursday morning. Winds and seas will remain elevated during this first half of the week.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ450- 452-455-470-472-475.