Calcasieu Lake Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots With Gusts Up To 25 Knots. Lake Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tonight...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots, Becoming Southeast 10 To 15 Knots After Midnight. Lake Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots With Gusts Up To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Rough. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Morning, Then Showers And Thunderstorms Likely In The Afternoon.|
|Tuesday Night...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Rough. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Wednesday...South Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Lake Waters Rough. A Chance Of Thunderstorms. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wednesday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1248pm CDT Sat May 21 2022
/issued 1044am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
UPDATE... Radar is indicating some showers in northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana this morning... storms are lifting to the northeast. Down into southeast Texas and southern Louisiana winds have begun to pickup this morning and will remain elevated through sunset as high pressure ridges in from the Bermuda High off to the US east coast. Also noted some sea haze this morning but this has improved through the late morning hours.
Finally we are going to see a break in the drought that has been going. Look for scattered storms in south central Louisiana with isolated amounts elsewhere this afternoon/evening. The real event will start tonight into tomorrow as the frontal boundary moves into coastal southeast Texas and south-central Louisiana. Otherwise... zones are fine no updates are planned at this time.
/issued 651am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
For the 05/21/2022 1200 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION... MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) CIGs and breezy southerly flow that continued overnight to remain for most of this forecast period. PROB30s placed in for a weak system over the gulf waters that is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms north into the area by around 18 ~ 21Z. From there, activity will continue with a frontal boundary moving southeast thru the area.
/issued 431am CDT Sat May 21 2022/
SHORT TERM [Today through Sunday]... Another morning with warm 4AM temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s going on. Dewpoints are not far behind, however we did not have to worry too much about fog due to some sites across the southern half of the CWA getting gusts of up to 25 MPH. Temps today will be in the mid to low 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s This will yield heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Concentration shifts to tonight, ahead of an approaching "cold" front. This boundary will progress southeastward towards the region then slow down as it reaches into Louisiana into Sunday. Severe weather is likely both tonight and into Sunday as a result. As far as severe parameters are concerned, shear is not that impressive. We have moderate instability and CAPE, but great lapse rates. Shear is in the 5-15kt range. As mentioned previously, dewpoints ahead of this are in the mid to upper 70s. CAPE values are in the 2000~3000J/kg range. Lapse rates and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) catch my eye at 8.5C/km and 1.8in respectively.
A few models show a broken line of storms reaching the NW corner of our CWA by midnight tonight, then becoming less organized as it moves thru Sunday evening. We are in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms as well as a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and hail. Rainfall could become a threat if rainfall rates are higher in flood prone areas. However with us being in a drought, whatever rain falls will be greatly needed. Currently we have half an inch to two inches in the forecast with locally higher amounts.
LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]... Periods of disturbed weather along with much cooler temperatures are expected thru the medium and longterm periods. A cold front sliding into the region over the weekend will stall over southern Louisiana Monday. This boundary will act as the focus for rain showers and thunderstorms to fire along, primarily during the afternoon with convection lingering into the overnight hours. On Tuesday this boundary will lift north on elevated southerly flow. Antecedent moisture left behind by the front will feed periods of (much needed) rain and thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.
The primary feature present in the late-longterm period is the drying airmass set to swing through the southeastern US during the day Thursday. Latest guidance does not have this airmass as a sharp boundary acting to sweep any remaining rain out of the CWA, rather dry air will begin pushing in on Thursday, with rain tapering off by Friday afternoon.
Cloudy skies and rain-cooled air will keep temperatures in check through the forecast period. Daytime highs will run in the mid to upper 80s (a few degrees below climo norm) with overnight lows sitting in the mid to upper 60s.
Elevated southerly winds are expected to last through the weekend as high pressure remains east of the area and a series of low pressure systems slip across the Great Plains, maintaining a tighter pressure gradient over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation chances return later tonight with the approach and passage of a frontal system. After a brief shift to a more easterly wind direction behind the boundary, onshore flow is expected to re- develop as the front lifts back onshore.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10am CDT this morning for GMZ430-432-435-455-475.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am CDT this morning for GMZ450-452- 470-472.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.