Calcasieu Lake Marine Forecast
| Today...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. Areas Of Fog In The Morning. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog After Midnight. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming East After Midnight. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Evening. |
| Tuesday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Tuesday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming North In The Afternoon. Lake Waters Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Wednesday Night...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1140am CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Synopsis Issued at 420am CST Sat Dec 14 2024 KLCH radar shows some spotty light showers developing across SE TX and moving into far W LA amid increasing moisture and modest ascent in advance of a midlevel low/trough extending from KS into W TX. At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to be anchored along the east coast states arching southwest toward the northern Gulf coast. This is providing a light to moderate east to southeast flow over the region, and has allowed for considerable moderation of temperatures which are between 10 and 20 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning. The main message for the upcoming forecast period will be the return of much warmer than normal temperatures. While the pattern will be unsettled into early next week, nothing exceptional with respect to severe weather or heavy rainfall is expected, with the risk for either one remaining very low. However, the risk for sea fog will be increasing, beginning tonight and likely continuing until the arrival of the next cold front later this week. 24 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 420am CST Sat Dec 14 2024 The midlevel low and its surface reflection over KS will progress east toward the mid MS Valley through tonight. Shortwave energy associated with this system will deflect north of the area as ridging aloft remains oriented over the northern Gulf into the SE US. A weak surface front extending southwest from the low system will drift south, but weaken north of the area as it becomes parallel to flow aloft. Its proximity will be sufficient to support some scattered to possibly numerous showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms across SE TX. Rain chances will decrease and shift north tonight as the shortwave exits to the northeast and the surface boundary washes out. The region will in between systems on Sunday so rain chances are expected to be low, but a few isolated warm advection streamer showers cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, with the midlevel ridge to more or less stay in place over the northern Gulf coast, and the surface ridge remaining oriented over the eastern states into the area, onshore flow is expected to persist through the short term. This will produce a sharp warmup today, along with an increase in low level moisture. This pattern will be conducive for some sea fog development/advection, and will be monitoring this potential through tonight. By Monday, the next in the series of shortwaves will be crossing the central/northern plains, while a weak southern stream impulse at the 500 mb level approaches TX. Modest forcing along a weakening frontal boundary drifting south into the area in concert with ascent attendant to the southern impulse will bring another decent chance for showers and a few storms Monday into Monday night. Temperatures through the short term period will run well above normal. Despite widespread cloud cover across the region, temperatures today are expected to climb into the lower 70s, with middle to upper 70s expected by Sunday and Monday. Cloud cover and moist advection will also limit the diurnal variation in temps, with overnight lows only falling as far as the lower 60s each night. 24 Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 420am CST Sat Dec 14 2024 The pattern will remain progressive into the long term as yet another shortwave enters the west while Monday's system swings past the Great Lakes. This shortwave is expected to sharpen and become more amplified as it digs southeast Tuesday into Wednesday, ushering a stronger cold front into the region by Wednesday into Wednesday night. There are some timing differences noted among deterministic models due to the evolution of the shortwave aloft, but current NBM guidance leans toward a slightly faster and more progressive FROPA during the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and a few storms are expected to accompany the front as it moves through the area. Instability is forecast to remain weak, with the stronger shear positioned north of the area. Thus, conditions do not look to favor any severe weather with this front as it moves through the area. Cooler and drier conditions are expected to return for the latter part of the week as high pressure builds into the area. 24 Marine Issued at 420am CST Sat Dec 14 2024 East to southeast winds will diminish today, with a light to moderate east to southeast flow to continue through early next week. Meanwhile, the risk of sea fog formation will increase beginning tonight as warm and moist air overrides relatively cooler shelf waters. At this time, HREF probabilities show a 20% chance for visibilities less than 1 mile on the upper TX and SW LA coast beginning this afternoon, with probs increasing to near 60% along the upper TX coast (Sabine Pass) by midnight. Intermittent periods of sea fog will then be possible until passage of the next cold front on Wednesday. Offshore flow will develop and strengthen in the wake of the cold front. 24 NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. |
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