Calcasieu Lake Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Friday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Saturday...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Saturday Night...Southeast Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth. |
| Sunday...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Sunday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Increasing To 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Lake Waters Choppy. |
| Monday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. |
| Tuesday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots, Becoming South 10 To 15 Knots In The Afternoon. Lake Waters Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms In The Afternoon. |
| Tuesday Night...South Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 221pm CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 ...NewARINE,Fire Weather .KEY MESSAGES... - A dry airmass is in place over the area, keeping rain chances minimal through tonight. - An increase in moisture is expected Friday into Saturday morning as Hurricane Isaias passes to the east, bringing low end rain chances to mainly lower Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. - Dry conditions return area-wide for the weekend into early next week. (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 216pm CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen over the southern Gulf, with its intensity analyzed at 85 mph per the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to continue strengthening over the next day amid a generally low-shear environment over warm Gulf waters. An upper-level trough currently located over the Gulf Coast will pull Isaias to the north and introduce some southeasterly shear over the storm Friday, allowing it to begin weakening. Latest NHC guidance indicates Isaias will make landfall in coastal Alabama or the western Florida panhandle late Friday night. This track is far enough east to generally keep most of the direct tropical impacts confined to the east of our CWA. The primary concern for the next couple of days will in fact be fire danger, as elevated wind gusts will combine with low relative humidity and dry fuels. See fire weather discussion for more information on this threat. A very dry airmass is currently in place over most of our CWA, with skies almost entirely devoid of any clouds. The 18z LCH sounding observed a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 0.62 inches, less than climatological 10th percentile. A few cumulus clouds are noted over lower Acadiana where slightly greater deep layer moisture is in place, but these are not expected to produce any rainfall. For the rest of today, we can expect breezy northeast winds of 10-15 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph possible, before winds weaken some after sunset. Elevated water levels will be possible along our Gulf coast during the high tide cycles tonight and especially Friday afternoon. While the magnitude of these rises will be less than observed in southeastern Louisiana, guidance indicates levels of 1.5 to 2 feet above MHHW will be possible along most of our coast, with the highest levels anticipated around Calcasieu and Sabine Passes. As a result, a coastal flood advisory has been issued for the immediate coastline for tonight until tomorrow evening. While areas inland along Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes may see some rises as well, these areas have been left out of the advisory for now as guidance indicates levels will stay below criteria there. Model guidance shows a slight increase in moisture for Friday as Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast, but it will still generally be quite dry overall. LREF mean PWAT (Precipitable Water) by Friday evening ranges from 0.9 inches over southeast Texas to 1.6 inches over the lower Atchafalaya Basin. This may be enough for some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm for lower Acadiana, as HREF mean SBCAPE climbs into the 500-750 J/kg range. Given the tropical origins of this moisture, heavy rainfall and perhaps brief/localized ponding of water may be a threat with any thunderstorms that develop in this area, but isolated storm coverage should preclude any significant flood threat. Elsewhere, rain chances will remain low with deep layer dry air in place. The other concern for Friday afternoon will be an increase in wind speeds as the tropical system makes its closest approach to our areas, with the strongest winds expected for lower Acadiana. At this time, wind speeds appear too low for any wind advisories, but trends will continue to be monitored. Afternoon high temperatures look to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Dry continental air will be advected down the western side of Isaias into our CWA (County Warning Area) through this weekend as the hurricane moves inland. A few showers cannot be entirely ruled out early Saturday morning along and east of I-49, closest to the deeper tropical moisture, but incoming dry air will quickly shut off rain chances across the remainder of the area. LREF mean PWAT (Precipitable Water) dips down to 0.8-0.9 inches area-wide by Sunday morning, which is below climatological 25th percentile values. Thus, rain chances will be near zero through the weekend. High clouds may keep afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, particularly over eastern portions of our forecast area, before rebounding back to around 90 Sunday. As the remnants of Isaias lift off to the northeast, high pressure is expected to build at the surface across the Southeast, while ridging aloft strengthens over the Mississippi River valley to begin next week. While the southerly surface flow should allow low-level Gulf moisture to increase a bit Monday into Tuesday, large-scale subsidence should keep rain chances low. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average for mid-October, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. 64/Silas Marine Issued at 216pm CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 Hurricane Isaias will move northeastward through the Gulf during the next two days, likely making landfall in the Mobile-Pensacola area. While our coastal waters will not be in the direct path of the storm, it will bring gusty winds and elevated waves to all coastal waters. A small craft advisory is now in effect for all Gulf waters and will go into effect for the Vermilion Bay area Friday midday. Sustained winds of 20-30 kt will be possible for these areas, with the highest winds across eastern portions of our offshore Gulf zones. Gusts in this area may approach gale force during the day Friday. Wave heigheights will rise to 10 feet or greater offshore and up to 4-5 feet along the coast. As Isaias passes to the east, rain chances will increase over the waters for tonight through Saturday morning. However, significant rain chances will be limited to our eastern marine zones as the airmass further west will be drier with more large-scale subsidence. Fire Weather Issued at 216pm CDT Thu Oct 8 2026 As Hurricane Isaias strengthens and begins to move northward, the pressure gradient will tighten, allowing elevated northeast winds to advect dry air into the region amid a subsident environment on the outer periphery of Isaias. Given the ongoing drought across much of central and southwest Louisiana and portions of southeast Texas, with KBDI values approaching 700 to 750, this will create a concerning fire weather setup across these areas. For the rest of today, MinRH will be in the 25 to 35 percent range in this area, along with winds up to 10-15 kt through sunset tonight. As Isaias approaches the coast, it will allow a slight increase in moisture for our area Friday, but this will also likely be accompanied by a slight increase in wind speeds, resulting in another day of elevated fire weather conditions. With the dry air in place, rain chances will be very low for most of the region, though a few showers or thunderstorms can't entirely be ruled out across lower Acadiana Friday through Saturday morning as these areas will have the best moisture. Winds will be lighter through the weekend as Isaias or its remnants lift off to the northeast, though the airmass will remain unusually dry with MinRH generally in the 30 to 45 percent range. NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 7pm CDT Friday for LAZ073-074-252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 7pm CDT Friday for TXZ615. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Friday to 1am CDT Saturday for GMZ435-436. Small Craft Advisory until 1am CDT Saturday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. |
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