Calcasieu Lake Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Southwest Winds Around 5 Knots Becoming North After Midnight. Lake Waters Smooth Increasing To A Light Chop After Midnight. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sunday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Sunday Night...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Monday Night...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Lake Waters Choppy. Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening, Then Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...West Winds Around 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Tuesday Night...North Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Wednesday Night...East Winds Around 5 Knots. Lake Waters Smooth.|
|Thursday...East Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
|Thursday Night...Northeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Lake Waters A Light Chop.|
Synopsis for Lower Atchafalaya River LA to High Island TX out 60 NM including Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes and Vermilion Bay: GMZ400|
921 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
A cold front will cross the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday, bringing a low chance for showers and thunderstorms with offshore flow developing in its wake. Winds will veer back to the southeast by Monday as surface high pressure moves east. Rain chances will increase again late Monday into Tuesday as another front moves into the area.
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1153pm CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
UPDATE... As of 930 PM, surface observations indicate the cold front extends from just east of Alexandria southwest to Sabine Pass. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms have developed behind the leading edge of the surface front over the past several hours. While the KLCH 00Z sounding sampled the atmosphere primarily ahead of the front, there was evidence of steep lapse rates above 700 hPa and elevated instability. The latest Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis indicates 250-750 J/kg CAPE extends through the -10C to -30C layer. This elevated instability combined with cloud layer shear in excess of 50 knots will support the threat for some hail with these elevated thunderstorms. The majority of the hail should be small, but an isolated severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the next several hours.
The surface cold front will continue to progress southeastward through the overnight hours with showers and a thunderstorm or two lingering behind the front. Cold air advection behind the front will result in temperatures falling into the low-to-mid 50s across northwestern portions of the CWA and into the low-to-mid 60s across the rest of the forecast area.
Overall, the inherited forecast remains on track with this update featuring mainly minor adjustments to the hourly weather grids.
AVIATION... A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from northeastern Louisiana into coastal southeast Texas this evening. These storms are moving ahead of a cool front that is getting pushed through the northwest gulf states attm. As the cold front pushes through the region it will take from three to six hours for ceilings to improve. IFR/MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) with the approach of storms becmg MVFR/VFR aftr midnight behind the storm activity.
A few light showers have begun to work their way into parts of Hardin and Tyler counties this afternoon as a broad band of light precipitation has developed in advance of the expected frontal boundary which presently extends from the arklatex southwest to just west of Houston. The band of precipitation will continue to advance eastward ahead of the front this evening. Short range guidance continues to favor more organized activity across interior SETX and central LA while depicting much weaker and more isolated activity closer to the coast. Probability of Precipitation will reflect this thinking which also aligns with SPCs convective marginal risk extending roughly over the northern 3rd of the CWA (along and north of a Hardin County to Avoyelles parish line). Forecast instability and shear appear robust enough to produce a few stronger storms although the better dynamics remain across northern Louisiana.
The front is still expected to move offshore by around or just after sunrise tomorrow morning where it is expected to stall through much of the day. High pressure building across northern Louisiana combined with some dryer air through the column should allow for at least some sunshine to go along with the drier and slightly cooler (highs will still hover around 80) airmass.
Persistent upper level ridging over the central gulf is expected to drift to the east over Florida on Monday with the resulting southerly flow lifting the stationary front north out of the gulf. An upper trough advancing east across the southern U.S. is expected to tap into this moisture enhancing precipitation across the region late Monday into early Tuesday as another front swings quickly through the area. SPC's day 3 outlook already has most of the area hatched within a marginal risk of severe weather with parts of central Louisiana hatched in a slight risk. Based on the latest forecast soundings, it appears that all forms of severe weather will be possible with this event, but similar to today, the best dynamics are expected to be across north Louisiana.
The much more seasonal (although still a bit above normal) airmass behind this front will have a little more staying power as high pressure builds across the central U.S. Tuesday afternoon through Thursday before being shunted off to the east by another upper trough Friday. There remains considerable uncertainty between global guidance with regards to how quickly this trough will move and, concordantly, how late into the weekend the precipitation will linger. The new forecast will continue to carry low end PoPs through the whole weekend until the picture becomes more clear.
A light to moderate onshore flow will continue this afternoon and evening as surface high pressure off the southeast coast ridges across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will cross the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday, bringing a low chance for showers and thunderstorms with offshore flow developing in its wake. Winds will veer back to the southeast by Monday as surface high pressure moves east. Rain chances will increase again late Monday into Tuesday as anoth. but vsby It will take several hours tEXAS er front moves into the area.
NOAA Lake Charles LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.