
Cape Flattery to James Island WA out 10 NM Marine Forecast
Tonight...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Rising To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: W 11 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain Early This Evening. A Chance Of Rain Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Late. |
Tue...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt, Rising To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 6 Ft At 7 Seconds And W 8 Ft At 12 Seconds. Rain In The Afternoon. |
Tue Night...Se Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft, Building To 8 To 11 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 5 Seconds, S 11 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 5 Ft At 16 Seconds. Rain. |
Wed...Se Wind 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 6 Seconds, S 11 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 6 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain. |
Wed Night...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 8 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Sw 8 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 6 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
Thu...S Wind Around 10 Kt. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 8 Ft At 14 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
Thu Night...Se Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 7 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And W 8 Ft At 15 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain. |
Fri...Se Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 9 To 11 Ft, Building To 11 To 14 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: W 13 Ft At 15 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. |
Fri Night...S Wind 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 12 To 14 Ft. Wave Detail: W 13 Ft At 14 Seconds. Rain. |
Sat...S Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Sw 12 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain. |
Sat Night...S Wind 20 To 25 Kt, Easing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 10 To 11 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And Sw 11 Ft At 13 Seconds. Rain. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 846pm PST Monday Feb 17 2025 No changes made to the inherited forecast. A few showers continue to linger across the CWA (County Warning Area) and will remain overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. The previous discussion remains below along with a marine, aviation, and hydrology section. Synopsis A wet weather pattern will continue this week, with showers continuing Monday into Tuesday. An organized frontal system Wednesday and potential atmospheric river next weekend will bring more widespread precipitation into the region. Temperatures will continue to remain a few degrees above average through the week and next weekend, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Short Term - Tonight Through Thursday Upper air analysis shows an upper level trough departing the region this afternoon towards the east (will bring a lot of the cooler air with it eastward). A surface trough remains just offshore (with a stationary front to the north). Radar activity has winded down some this afternoon. Heavy precipitation has wrapped up, but there remains a couple areas of showers concentrated along the King/Pierce County line, and also a few showers up in northern Snohomish/Skagit Counties and the South Interior. Any additional rain (or snow in the Cascades) that falls will be light and is not expected to produce any additional impacts. Thus, the winter storm warning expired at 10 am for the Cascades earlier this morning. Areas of mist/low clouds will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler today with most places observing temperatures in the upper 40s this afternoon. A weak transient ridge will move over western WA into Tuesday. This will keep most of area dry on Tuesday (some lingering early morning showers in the Cascades will dissipate in the morning). Sky coverage is expected to remain mostly cloudy however, with weak flow aloft not able to fan out a lot of moisture that remains. There could be a few peaks of sunshine in some spots, but otherwise expect conditions to remain relatively overcast. Beginning Tuesday evening, another disturbance will approach western WA as an upper level shortwave trough will dig down towards northern CA, and be our next weather maker by mid week. The more southern track of this trough did bring down Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals slightly by mid week, as WA may only be on the occluded side of the surface system underneath the trough (dissipating). Mean NBM values put most of the lowlands between 0.5-0.75 inch of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, but there remains about a 0.25 inch spread from the mean between the 10th and 90th percentiles. Will get more hi-res guidance from the HREF in future updates to help narrow the possible range of precipitation solutions for Wednesday. Snow levels will be cold enough again for some mountain snow in the passes (mean NBM output has 5 inches at Stevens Pass, and 3 inches at Snoqualmie Pass - slight decrease from previous model runs). Some east Cascade gap winds may also play a role in how much snow falls in the Cascade region overall (gusts up to 25-30 mph possible Wednesday morning). It may also be breezy along the coast and parts of the North Interior Wednesday morning. Expect the precipitation Wednesday to wrap up Thursday morning as the trough/front move out of the region. There again remains some slight chance/chance of showers on Thursday, but Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts are extremely light (1 or two hundredths) that most areas again may not see precipitation. Long Term - Friday Through Monday Ensembles keep the probabilities of above average temperatures and precipitation through the end of the week into the weekend. Friday will keep the pattern of Thursday going with a few showers possible (otherwise mostly dry across the region with mostly cloudy skies). There remains an increased chance of atmospheric river event going into next weekend (as IVT analysis shows a good chunk of moisture approaching the WA coast from the moist conveyor belt under a more broad and slow moving trough offshore). It is still too early to advertise any potential precipitation totals with this system, but early signals show the potential for significant wetting rain that may cause some flooding concerns along area rivers (see hydrologic discussion below for further details). HPR Marine S flow increases on Tuesday with the next incoming warm front. There's potential for gales over the outer coastal waters - a Gale Watch is in effect. Seas remain elevated, building to 10-15 ft over the coastal waters by Wednesday. Winds will ease by midweek, then rise again with the next strong frontal system toward the end of the week. 33 Hydrology A pair of frontal systems will move across Western Washington this week bringing modest precipitation to the area. Snow levels will remain in the 3000 to 4000 ft range into Friday. Models continuing to show the potential for at atmospheric river event this weekend with the atmospheric river possibly remaining over the area into Monday. Widespread river rises will result if this scenario plays out with the possibility of flooding along the Skokomish River and other rivers flowing off the Olympics like the Satsop and the Bogachiel. A longer duration atmospheric river event would also put pressure on rivers flowing off the Cascades. Until this weekend, no flooding is forecast. The Skokomish may NOAA Seattle WA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6am PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor Bar Small Craft Advisory until 4pm PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. |