Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Scattered Showers, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sat...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 422am EDT Wednesday April 24 2024 Synopsis A cold front with limited moisture will approach the area today and cross the region tonight. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend. Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening As of 340am Wednesday...Interesting forecast next 18 hours as a cold front associated with a strong mid level shortwave moving through the northeast approaches eastern NC today and crosses the area tonight. Moisture will be quite limited with this system, especially initially and thus precipitation coverage and amounts will be limited. There is also very limited instability with only around 250 J/kg of CAPE so not expecting any thunder with the showers. Nonetheless, there are a couple of factors that lead me to think there could more shower activity than the consensus of the models which are dry. The first is that the best forcing will be occurring during peak heating. Another is that for most the day dewpoints will be in the 40s, but increase into the mid 50s when low level convergence will be maximized. Speaking of convergence, the models are forecasting a well defined pre-frontal trough/windshift well ahead of the front which will be moving the eastern NC during the afternoon and early evening and should be the focus for scattered shower activity. The wetter models are keying in on the area from the southern Outer Banks to the southeast NC coast early this evening as the time/location where the showers will be most numerous. Decided to increase Probability of Precipitation slightly to 30%. Gusty SW winds are expected through early afternoon then the gradient will decrease the trough moves through the area. Continued southerly flow will result in highs in the low to mid 70s with some upper 70s possible. Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday As of 340am Wednesday...The aforementioned trough/windshift along with the bulk of the showers are forecast to be moving offshore in the early evening with the main cold front forecast to cross the region 6-12Z Thu. Think most of the shower activity should be winding down by midnight and not expecting much if any additional showers with the passage of the cold front late tonight. Winds will shift to the north behind the front with temps falling into the low to mid 50s. Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday As of 400am Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating. With the cold front offshore for the start of the long term, gusty conditions will prevail through the afternoon, particularly for OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. Some guidance is hinting at showers in the afternoon/evening Thursday along the sea breeze. Chose to discount this, as moisture is very shallow. Current expectation is for cumulus to develop along the sea breeze, but tops should remain low enough to prevent precipitation. High pressure lingers to our north Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precipitation in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable Probability of Precipitation with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precipitation chances expected in AKQ's CWA (County Warning Area) and further north. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the high to our east. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 340am Wednesday...The main changes to the marine forecast were to extend out in time the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound to account for moderate to strong pre and post frontal flow today into Thu. The strongest winds through tonight will occur this morning into this afternoon ahead of a pre frontal trough wind shift. Ahead of this feature SW winds of 15-25 kt will occur and result in seas of 4-7 ft. As the trough moves through, winds will briefly shift to the N but are forecast to be light /10 kt or less/ late this afternoon through early this evening. Then a cold front is forecast to sweep through the waters 6-12Z Thu. Winds will briefly become SW ahead of the front tonight then shift to the N 10-15 kt behind it late tonight. Stronger northerly flow is forecast to develop on Thu. Seas 4-7 ft (up to 8 ft over the outer central waters) today will briefly subside to 3-5 ft tonight. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday As of 400am Tuesday...Cold front will be offshore of the Crystal Coast and SOBX for the start of the long term. Behind the cold front, we will see a surge of northerly winds Thursday afternoon/evening. Pamlico Sound has a Small Craft Advisory out until 6Z Friday due to this surge. Duration of the higher winds will be shorter for northern sounds.Alligator River, preventing the issuance of a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) at this time. Neuse and Pamlico Rivers should remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) critera. We will also see waves picking up from the deepening low in the North Atlantic. This will allow Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue for coastal waters until 6Z Friday. The exception is waters off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke, where high waves at or above 6 ft will linger a bit longer, until 0Z Saturday. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 6am this morning to 2pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Friday for AMZ150-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. |
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