Marine Weather Net

Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SUN

NE
WINDS
20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ154 Forecast Issued: 254 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Tonight...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt Late Late. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers Late.
Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: N 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Sun...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.
Mon...E Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 5 Ft At 10 Seconds And Ne 4 Ft At 6 Seconds.
Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Tue...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Tue Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
242pm EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

Synopsis
A cold front will push through tonight, followed by strong high pressure building in this weekend into much of next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 240pm Friday...A strong but (mostly) dry cold front will sweep across eastern NC tonight. As the front moves closer to the area, cloud cover will increase across the area this evening. As some of the hi-res models earlier predicated, isolated showers are developing in the agitated Cumulus field during peak heating. However the showers are trying to overcome deep mid level dry air and are not being able to organize and sustain an updraft for am appreciable amount of time, thus just expecting some sprinkles or a very light shower in a few spots. This activity is expected to end by 22Z (6 PM) with the loss of heating.

The trend in the latest models is for less and less of a chance for any measurable rain for rain starved eastern NC with the passage of the cold front late tonight. Will maintain a slight chance Probability of Precipitation late especially for the northern half of the area and Outer Banks but realistically we are only expecting a few hundreths of an inch at best if it does rain anywhere overnight.

The main affects of the frontal passage will be considerable clouds, increasing winds, and a return to cooler temps as brisk northerly flow develops behind the front. This will become more noticeable on Sat. Lows tonight will be 60-65.

Short Term - Saturday
As of 2:40pm Friday...Saturday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler with highs mostly in the upper 60s with North to Northeast winds 10-20 mph with higher gusts along the coast. Some of the hi-res models generate some light showers as the 850 MB front moves through but again the depth of the dry air and lack of upper support should help to keep things dry.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Friday
As of 0310 Friday...Cold front stalls to the S of the FA with high pressure building in over the weekend. Benign pattern in place until end of the work week when another front will cross the area.

Weekend...SFC high briefly builds in behind the front, which will stall somewhere S of the FA while mid and upper level ridging builds from the Nern Gulf of Mexico, reversing the warming trend of the workweek; low to mid 70s/upper 40s to low 50s split for weekend. Crisp N-NEerly breeze Saturday brings Tds back into the upper 40s-low 50s, leading to a refreshingly return to AoB "Normal" climo.

Next week, high pressure shifts offshore prompting a return to more Eerly, and eventually Serly low level flow regime, warming Ts back to the mid 70s Mon, upper 70s/low 80s Tues, and low 80s most Wed. A more significant cold front is forecast to cross the area late next week. This front is associated with a much more dynamic pattern aloft and will have greater moisture in the column to work with meaning this FROPA will be the next best chance for meaningful rainfall. As moisture influx increases ahead of the front, greater cloud coverage will result is a slight dampening in the warming trend.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 240pm Fri...A cold front will cross the waters tonight followed by building high pressure Sat. Ahead of the front, winds will continue SW 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt through this evening with seas continuing 2-4 ft. Winds will then shift to N 15-20 kt gusting to 25 kt north of Ocracoke Inlet after midnight, and early Sat morning south of Cape Lookout as the cold front crosses the waters. Seas will build to 3-5 ft. A MWS statement has been issued for all of the waters to account for a 3-5 hr period of frequent northerly post frontal gusts to 25 kt late tonight into Sat. Later Sat afternoon into early next a week a strong gradient will develop over the waters resulting in northerly winds 20-25 kt and elevated seas at or above 6 ft. These conditions could develop as early as Sat afternoon over the southern and central waters, thus A SCA (Small Craft Advisory) has been issued for the waters south of Oregon Inlet.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/... As of 0310 Friday...Post frontal Nerly surge will bring marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through much of the weekend as high pressure builds over ENC. The high shifts offshore early next week and remain anchored offshore to the E through the rest of the week.

Winds slowly veer to become more Eerly, 15-20 kt and gusty Monday, and more Serly Tuesday around 15 kt Tue. SW 10-15kt Wed further strengthening as the next cold front that will cross at the end of the work week.

Seas generally 2-4ft through the period save for the weekend when seas build in response to the Nerly surge, peaking at 4-7ft Sat night into Sunday subsiding back down to 3-5ft late Tuesday into Wed.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 11am EDT Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 11pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.