Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain Late This Evening.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Thu Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
823pm EST Monday Nov 18 2019
Troughing lingers off the coast through early week. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will push through this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 740pm Mon...Subsidence behind the departing shortwave is bringing an end to the rain from SW to NE, but with ample moisture trapped below the strengthening low level inversion, drizzle and fog are also beginning to develop. Expect this to become mainly patchy to areas of fog and low level stratus overnight as the surface layer continues to compress and some dry air entrainment likely happens from the mid-levels. A few patches of dense fog are possible. Expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s away from the beaches.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 300pm Mon...A series of mid/upper level disturbances will cross the eastern NC tomorrow, while weak high pressure builds in. The disturbances will not be as strong as the one as today, but could trigger some sprinkles. All the HI-Res models have the area dry as low-level moisture is limited; below 850 mb. Will continue to forecast a dry weather with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 230pm Mon...Mostly quiet weather with near to slightly below normal temps expected through much of this week, with unsettled weather developing late week into the weekend.
Strong high pressure will build over the region in the wake of the low through Thursday. Decent shortwave will push through the area Tuesday evening, which could trigger isolated to widely scattered light showers. Will keep sc Probability of Precipitation along the coast during the evening,. Temperatures will be fairly close to climatology, with highs in the low/mid 60s and lows in the low/mid 40s.
Both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicate a return of unsettled weather Friday into the weekend. A frontal boundary moves into the region late Friday/Friday night...stalls to the S Sat with low pressure moving along it Sunday. Models cont to have timing/placement differences with these systems so cont prev forecast of chance PoPs. Dry weather looks to return early next week as front pushes offshore with high pressure building in from the W.
Short Term /Through Tuesday/... As of 730pm Mon...Large northeast swell from the departing low pressure system will gradually fade overnight, then diminish quicker Tuesday. Hazardous seas will persist for the waters near and north of Cape Hatteras through Tuesday, with hazardous seas continuing south of Ocracoke Inlet into Tuesday morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in effect accordingly. Persistent troughing off the coast will keep light to moderate northwest flow in place through Tuesday.
Long Term /Tuesday night through Sat/... As of 230pm Mon...Light NW winds Tuesday evening begin to increase a bit late Tuesday night following passage of a decent short wave with seas 3 to 5 ft. High pressure will build across Wednesday and Thu with NW winds 15 to 20 kts Wednesday becoming light W later Thu. Expect WSW winds to increase to 15-25 kt ahead of an approaching front Thu night and Fri, and could see SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions develop Fri. On sat expect mainly W winds 10 to 20 kts as front init to the S begins to lift back N.
Seas will be 3 to 5 ft Wed, though could see some 6 ft seas develop far outer central waters in the gusty NW flow. Seas will temporarily subside to 2-4 ft Thu, then building back to 4-6 ft Fri. seas will be mainly 3 to 5 ft Sat.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 730pm Mon...Northeast swell from the departing low has been slow to subside, and prevailing periods of 12-13 seconds justify extending the high surf advisory north of Cape Lookout into Tuesday morning.
Though winds have subsided, water in the Pamlico Sound and surrounding waterways is still slowly working its way back into equilibrium. Elevated water levels will persist Tuesday for some locations, especially across the mid and upper Pamlico Sound and near Inlets. Widespread coastal flooding is not expected, but localized areas of water levels of 1 ft of inundation or less are possible.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for NCZ196-203>205.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.