Marine Weather Net

Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

MON

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

N
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ154 Forecast Issued: 949 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
Overnight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Rain Late This Evening And Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Late.
Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Rain, Mainly In The Morning.
Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.
Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds.
Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Wed Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.
Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005pm EDT Sunday April 21 2024

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will continue to move away from the coast tonight. High pressure briefly builds into the area early this week followed by a cold front with limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

Near Term - Overnight
As of 10pm Sun...Surface low well east of Hatteras will continue to move away from the coast tonight, while trailing cold front and shortwave aloft gradient slide off the SE coast. Widespread light rain continues across the area late this evening, with back edge now moving towards Hwy 17. Eventually, gradual drying aloft should support a west to east decrease in the steadier precip. However, with the main upper level trough axis still to the west, and with lingering moisture, I'm not convinced yet that the rain will end for the whole area, so I've continue to hold onto a mention through the night, especially east of HWY 17.

Short Term - Monday
As of 115pm Sunday...An upper level trough will pivot east through the Carolinas on Monday. At the surface, low pressure off the coast will deepen thanks to increasing height falls aloft. While the pressure gradient will relax some tonight, the deepening low will act to increase the gradient for a time on Monday, with a bit of an uptick in northerly winds expected. 12z model guidance has trended up with winds on Monday, especially along the coast, and I reflected this trend in the forecast.

Regarding precip, the better, and deeper, moisture is forecast to shift offshore on Monday, but until the upper low clears the coast, I expect at least a low-end chance (20-30%) of showers to continue, especially along the coast. Temperatures on Monday are expected to be well below normal for late-April, especially where clouds linger the longest. Along the coast, highs will struggle to get out of the 50s. Inland, some breaks in the clouds may allow highs to get into the low 60s, but this will still be 10-15 degrees below normal.

Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
As of 415am Sunday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting up to our and north through the weekend.

Tuesday...Clear skies and calm winds bring bring lows near 40 inland Tuesday morning. Along the coast lows are a bit higher, in the low 50s, as the gradient is pinched a bit more there with the high building from the west and and the low offshore to the east. This might be enough to prevent true decoupling due to radiational cooling. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday, with highs near 60 inland, mid 60s for beaches.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the mid to upper 40s to start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid 50s. High pressure moves offshore through the day Wednesday with the help of a weak cold front associated with the sweeping low. This will cause winds to veer from southerly to northerly through the day. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable Probability of Precipitation for Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts inland. Fortunately RHs will be well above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, near 70 for the coast, aided by the south veering west flow through the day.

Thursday to Saturday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry, with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precipitation in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Currently have Schance Probability of Precipitation for extreme western and northern portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) Saturdaypm to cover this.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 10pm Sun...Latest obs show N-NE winds 15-25 kt gusting to 25-30 kt with seas 6-9 ft north of Ocracoke and 4-7 ft south. These winds will continue into this evening, then lay down some overnight. The winds will then increase once again on Monday as the gradient tightens as low pressure further deepens. Guidance has come in a bit stronger with the winds on Monday, and this is reflected in the wind forecast. Because of this, both winds and waves are expected to remain elevated for a longer period of time, necessitating the extension of the SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 345am Sunday...As the coastal low strengthens offshore, seas will be slow to drop below 6 ft for western portions of marine zones, finally doing so on Tuesday. Seas remain 3-5 feet for much of the coastal marine zones in the remainder of the long term. Further offshore in western portions of the marine zones, there will be multiple rounds of waves at 6-7 feet through the long term. Winds will be below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through the long term.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7am EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ196-203-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Monday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.