Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Building To 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Se 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Fri...Se Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Sat Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Mon...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 939 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will exit the region Thursday. A large low pressure system will affect the region late Thursday into the weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
930pm EDT Wednesday Oct 27 2021
High pressure will cross the region tonight and slide offshore Thursday. A large low pressure system will affect the region late Thursday into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday into early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 930pm Wed...Area of SCU has spread W a little further than expected but seems to be slowing. Most models show the SCU retreating back to the E later tonight. Where skies are clear temps have dropped quickly and expect lows to reach the 45 to 50 degree range inland. RH already 95 to 100 percent many inland spots so threat for some late night patchy shallow fog may be increasing.
Prev disc... Narrow region of high pressure will shift overhead tonight and into early Thu morning. Winds will continue.nue to diminish this afternoon into the evening, calming overnight and turning mostly Nrly. Skies will start off mostly clear, with the exception of some scattered strato-cu across the NOBX region, with a few scattered mid to high clouds filtering in during the early morning hours. Lows expected to be in the upper 40s far inland to the low 40s soundside and around 60 along the coast.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 350pm Wed...High pressure will begin to pull away as the next storm complex pushes towards the region. Quiet forecast through about mid afternoon with inc clouds. Winds shift more SErly late afternoon ahead of the large complex low crossing the southeastern US, providing better moisture advection into the region. Sct showers possible across western counties as edge of precipitation shield shifts closer to the CWA. Severe parameters will remain very weak through the early evening with mostly scattered rain showers expected. Highs reach the low 70s.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 4pm Wed...Active weather pattern through the first part of the period with troughing generally persisting over the eastern US and large complex low pressure system impacting the area Thu through Sat. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into early next week. A cold front will approach the area mid next week.
Thursday Night through Saturday...Upper ridge axis slides east of the area Thursday and deep moisture advection begins. Stacked low pressure over the Tennessee Valley will slowly work eastward, but deep moisture advection and broad lift developing through the evening. 12z guidance continued the slower trend with precipitation arrival, and lowered probability of precipitation a bit more Thu early evening. A warm front is expected to lift through the area Thursday night and Friday morning, signaling the return of appreciable rain chances. Main concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and moderate to locally heavy rain Thu night and Fri morning. Ample shear and low level helicity in place for strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and tornado threat, but instability remains the limiting factor. Current expectation is that, given the unfavorable diurnal timing, little to no instability will build as deeper moisture arrives behind the cold front. Instead, appreciable instability will likely be delayed and limited to a narrow band of very strong low level moisture convergence immediately ahead of the approaching cold front, which is most likely to arrive to our area around or after 9Z Friday morning. Storm Prediction Center currently has the the southern portions of the area outlooked in a Slight risk for severe weather and a Marginal risk for areas further NE for this very early Friday morning severe threat. Supercellular features producing damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes are the main concern, especially for coastal areas south and east of New Bern.
Temps near normal during the day Thursday , with an increasingly warm and humid airmass filling in Thursday night. Non-diurnal temp curve expected Thu night as warm air advection strengthens, with dewpoints surging into the 60s with increasing SE flow.
Stacked low pressure lifts across the southern Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic Friday into the weekend. Precip expected to become more scattered Friday afternoon into Sat, and will keep low chance probability of precipitation due to the close proximity of the strong dynamic forcing associated with the stacked low.
Sunday through Wednesday...Low pressure will continue.nues to lift through the NE US as trough axis shifts off the east coast. Upper flow becomes more zonal Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the WNW. Upper ridge begins to build across the SE Monday as next frontal system approaches from the west. Near normal temps expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast. A cold front is forecast to move through the area mid next week, though still some timing differences this far out. GFS moves it through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and EC Wed.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... As of 930pm Wed...Swells from the strong low well to the NE cont to increase northern tier and increased init seas a bit to match...should hold in the 6 to 8 foot range N of Hat rest of the night.
Prev disc...High pressure will continue.nue to build over the waters tonight, allowing winds to relax through Thu morning. Big Nor'Easter continues to bring strong swell across the NOBX, keeping seas 5-7 ft for central and northern waters through the period, forcing SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to stay up there. Southern waters will stay protected from strong NE swell with seas remaining at 2-4 ft. Calm N winds overnight will turn more NErly Thursday morning and veer to the ESE by late afternoon as a complex low approaches the region, ramping back up to 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts along the southern waters. Conditions quickly deteriorate late Thu as the complex low impacts the region. See long term forecast for info.
LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4pm Wed...Complex low pressure system will impact the waters Thursday through Saturday. A warm front will push through the waters Thursday night and Friday morning with the occluding cold front following quickly. Winds ESE 15-20 kt Thu evening become SE 20-30 kt with higher gusts Friday morning through afternoon. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) in effect for all coastal waters during this time, with gale force SE winds possible, but confidence in Gales lower. Winds continue to veer becoming more SSW 15-25 kt later Fri. Moderate SW 10-20 kt winds Fri night and Sat. High pressure will gradient build in from the west Sun, with winds becoming W 10-15 gusting to 20 kt.
Seas will remain elevated north of Ocracoke through most of the period. Thu seas 5-8 ft subsiding a bit, then building again Thu night and Fri peaking at 7-10 ft. South of Ocracoke seas 2-4 ft Thu, building to 6-9 ft Thu night and Fri. Seas 4-6 ft Sat night gradient subsiding to 3-5 ft Sunday as winds diminish and become more offshore.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 410pm Wed... Wave run up due to deepening offshore low pressure combined with gusty NNW winds will bring the potential for rough surf and minor beach erosion through late week north of Cape Hatteras. Larger swells arrive Thursday night into Friday, which is expected to be combined with strong onshore flow, providing a greater threat for high surf conditions.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8am EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ203-205.
Small Craft Advisory from 2am to 11am EDT Friday for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory from 2am to 2pm EDT Friday for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm Thursday to 5pm EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.