Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds, Increasing To 11 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
501am EDT Sunday May 26 2019
Synopsis: High pressure will settle off the Southeast coast today. Another backdoor front will move into the region Monday, but then will quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures expected across the region through at least the middle of next week. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 325am Sunday...Convection along the leading of a weak mid-level shortwave have dissipated with only a few light showers now remaining just west of our CWA. With the diminishing trend on radar, will remove Probability of Precipitation from our forecast for the remainder of the overnight hours. From daybreak forward, skies will be partly cloudy with hot temperatures for late May as expansive surface ridge builds again from the west once again. Highs today will be in the low/mid 90s, except mid 80s Outer Banks. Morning stratus over roughly the western half of the CWA should dissipate shortly after daybreak. Weak boundary interaction could produce a pop-up shower or storm during the heat of the day, but the coverage will be isolated and only slight chance Probability of Precipitation are in place along the sea breeze.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 325am Sunday...Skies will be mostly clear tonight with very warm temperatures. Lows should generally be in the low 70s inland and mid 70s Outer Banks. Any isolated showers or storms that Probability of Precipitation up during the afternoon should quickly end by shortly after dark.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As of 330am Sunday...Upper ridging over the Southeast coupled with surface high pressure offshore will bring hot and mainly dry conditions through much of the work week. The ridge breaks down late in the week with a frontal system approaching from the bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.
Monday through Thursday...Upper ridging will be centered over the deep south with surface high pressure centered offshore. Models continue to show a series of weak impulses/remnant convective complexes moving through the NW flow aloft Monday into Tuesday with a backdoor front pushing in the area Monday afternoon which dissipates early Tuesday. The weak mid level energy combined with convergence along the front and sea breeze boundaries may be sufficient to trigger isolated thunderstorms across parts of the area with somewhat better chances across the northern tier. The upper ridge axis shifts eastward late Tuesday into Thursday with dry and hot conditions prevailing.
The main story this week will be the hot temps with 850mb temps around 17-20C, possibly peaking as high as 23C Wednesday as forecast in the 00z ECMWF. Highs Monday expected in the mid 90s inland to upper 80s coast, however winds become NE to E across northern sections behind the front which will keep temps in the mid to upper 80s across the northern OBX. The front dissipates by Tuesday with highs expected in the mid to upper 90 inland to mid to upper 80s beaches. The heat peaks Wednesday with highs around 100 inland to low to mid 90s beaches, then the upper ridge begins to slide offshore Thursday with high in the upper 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the beaches.
Friday and Saturday...The upper ridge slides offshore late in the week with near zonal flow developing across the eastern CONUS. A dampening shortwave trough and surface frontal boundary approach from the west bringing increased chances of showers and thunderstorms across Eastern NC. Temps will not be quite as hot as earlier in the week but still well above average with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 330am Sunday...Moderate SW winds at around 15 knots expected today, with a few gusts to 20 knots. Seas should generally be 3-4 feet with a few 5 footers possible over some of the outer waters. Not much change tonight as winds continue at 10-15 knots, but will veer to more SW/W toward morning.
Long Term - Monday through Thursday: As of 4am Sunday...A backdoor front will push into the area Monday, then dissipate Monday night into Tuesday while high pressure remains centered offshore through the period. SW winds around 5-15 kt Monday morning, becomes E to NE Monday afternoon and Monday night. The front dissipates early Tuesday with winds veering to S around 10-15 kt Tuesday afternoon, then becoming SW Tuesday night into Wednesday. SW winds increase to 15-20 kt late Wednesday through Thursday as gradients tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas 3-5 ft north/central waters and 2-4 ft south Monday subsides to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas begin to build back to 3-5 ft Thursday
Record or near record warmth is expected for much of the week.
Record High temps for 5/26 (Sunday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1953 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 88/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1927 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1953 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/2004 (KNCA ASOS)
Record High temps for 5/27 (Monday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1989 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/2004 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1989 (KNCA ASOS)
Record High temps for 5/28 (Tuesday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 93/2014 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 87/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 97/1916 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 93/2004 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 95/1967 (KNCA ASOS)
Record High temps for 5/29 (Wednesday)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1982 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 91/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 95/1918 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 92/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 93/1991 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1967 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories