Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Today...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. |
| Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Sun...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633am EDT Wednesday April 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Brought min temps down for this morning given observations. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances for the weekend and mid- week next week. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through much of the work week. 2) Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week bringing beneficial rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3). Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Today we will reach low RH's 20-30% inland with deep mixing in the afternoon brings SW wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Thursday and Friday also have low RH's, but winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph. In light of the expected dry and breezy conditions on Wednesday, and in collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for all of ENC for today. A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information. KEY MESSAGE 2...A modest increase in moisture and instability along a stalled frontal boundary draped NW to SE from the Mid- Atlantic into eastern NC may be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Friday closer to the NC/VA border. This is then expected to be followed by a more substantial plume of moisture within an increasingly active upper level pattern over the weekend and into next week. During this time, model guidance differs on the evolution of a SFC low that is forecast to track east across the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 camps in model guidance. The first is a weaker low that moves through Sunday/Monday, leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary that becomes a focus for additional precipitation Tuesday. The second possible solution is for a stronger surface low to move through Sunday/Monday. This would favor a stronger push south with the cold front, which then favors drier, but cooler, weather towards the middle of next week. Regardless of the evolution of that low, increasing moisture, lift, and instability should favor one, or more, rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance focused Saturday into Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will depend on the strength of the low as outlined above. Within this pattern, there may be enough shear and instability for at least a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, and this is something we'll monitor in the coming days. Looking ahead to Tuesday, should the weaker low solution materialize over the weekend, a deep negatively tilted trough as shown by the 00Z GFS (Global Forecast System) could develop over the midwest and mid- atlantic mid- wee as a "worst case scenario". This could be paired with veering of low level winds, modest instability, and deep layer shear in the Carolinas and deep south. Mid-week next week will also be worth monitoring for any severe probabilities if other model suites come to the same consensus. At this point though, there is too much up in the air. Marine South winds 10-15 knots will quickly increase to 15-30 kt and become SW'rly today into tonight in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. Thursday high builds to our south with a stalled boundary to our north, keeping west to southwest winds gusting up to 10-20 knots in place much of the day. For the coastal and outer waters, seas of 3-5ft this morning will build to 4-7ft with the building winds later today. Seas are then expected to fall back to 2-4ft by early Thursday, becoming 2-3 ft late Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms may accompany Wednesday's cold front in the evening, especially for the coastal waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet. Outlook: An area of low pressure is forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 1am EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8am EDT Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 8am EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. |
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