Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 45 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 30 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
331am EST Monday Jan 20 2020
Cold high pressure will prevail across the region for most of the week. Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area next weekend.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 245am Monday...Strong surface high pressure (currently around 1045 MB) will continue to slowly build over the area from the NW through tonight. Associated cold, dry advection will persist resulting in windy, cold, and clear (inland) conditions across Eastern NC. Highs today will struggle to break 40 degrees in many locations while a brisk North wind reminds us it is still winter. Along the Outer Banks skies should become mostly cloudy as stratocumulus clouds develop due to low level moisture advection off the ocean. Highs will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is 10-15 deg below climo.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 245am Monday...Arctic high pressure centered over the upper Mid-West will extend southeast across the Carolinas tonight with continued cold advection. The pressure gradient will tighten overnight in response to falling pressures over the southwest Atlantic resulting in brisk northerly flow continuing. The wind in combination with temps bottoming out in the low to mid 20s inland will produce cold Wind Chill values around 10 degrees early Tue. While skies remain clear inland, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail across the Outer Banks where a stray light shower will be possible south of Oregon Inlet where temps are forecast to remain just above freezing and isolated to scattered Gulfstream showers could clip the coast.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
As of 3am Mon...Settled and cold conditions persist into Thursday ahead of the next storm system, which will impact the area Thursday night into the weekend.
Tuesday through Thursday...Upper low passes south of the area and off the Southeast coast on Tuesday, prompting the development of a surface low well off the Florida coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally, high pressure building in from the west will keep a very dry profile in place for most of the area, while a weak coastal trough extending northward from the aforementioned low will bring modest low level moisture to the immediate coast from Cape Lookout to Hatteras Island. While the majority of shower or storm activity associated with this trough will remain along the edge of the Gulf Stream, a few showers could work back over the southern OBX Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additionally, the gradient will tighten as the high encroaches from the west and the trough remains parked offshore, with gusty north winds on tap, especially for the Outer Banks, later Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Cold Air Advection will remain strong through midweek, with highs Tuesday near 40 away from the beaches, and lows once again well into the 20s for most Tuesday night. Airmass moderation begins as the high builds closer Wednesday, but temps will still be several degrees below normal despite mostly sunny skies.
The ridge will move overhead Thursday, bringing lighter winds/weaker Cold Air Advection and continued mostly clear conditions aside from some cirrus streaming overhead. Temps will be within a couple degrees of normal.
Friday and Saturday...Friday will be a transition day as heigheights aloft fall in response to troughing digging across the central US. At the surface, ridging will slide offshore as a complex frontal system works toward the eastern seaboard. Moisture transport will bring increasingly clouds, with rain chances dependent on the erosion of mid-level dry air/subsidence, which looks to persist through the day Friday, limiting POPs to slight chance in the forecast. However, deep moisture transport ensues by Friday evening, with high-end chance POPs in the forecast ahead of the approaching frontal system Friday night and Saturday. While specifics of the system remain uncertain, as longer range guidance is inconclusive about the track of the surface low and the potential for a secondary low/wave to develop closer to the area, confidence is beginning to increase in the general timing of the precip. Additionally, ensemble guidance indicates that most solutions bring instability into the area ahead of the primary front Saturday, and slight chance thunder has been introduced into the forecast for the eastern half of the area.
Sunday...Mild high pressure builds in from the southwest Sunday into early next week, resulting in mainly dry conditions and near- seasonable temps.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 245am Monday..Continue the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the coastal waters and Sounds. Gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through the period as cold high pressure gradually builds over the waters producing strong Cold Air Advection through tonight. This will result in N winds 20-25 kt with higher gusts through tonight. Across the northern waters and Albemarle Sound region, winds are forecast to briefly diminish to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening, then increase back to 15-25 kt again late this evening. 6-10 ft seas early this morning will briefly subside to 4-7 ft late today, then rebuild to 5-9 ft by early Tue.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 330am Mon...High pressure pushing into the area from the west as low pressure develops well off the Southeast coast will result in a tightening of the gradient Tuesday. Given the cold airmass advecting into the area, stronger winds should mix readily to the surface, brining solid gales to the coastal waters and larger inland waterways later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Seas build Tuesday and Tuesday night, peaking around 6-12 ft early Wednesday morning. Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday into Thursday as the high builds overhead, but elevated seas persist across the coastal waters mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Winds begin to veer and increase Friday as the high moves offshore and a frontal system approaches from the west.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Wednesday for AMZ131-150- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.