Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1016pm EDT Tuesday May 17 2022
High pressure influences the weather through Wednesday. Hot weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. A disturbance could trigger a few thunderstorms late Thursday. A cold front approaches late weekend into early next week with better chances for rain.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
As of 1015pm Tue...Many areas have managed to decouple this evening with temperatures falling rapidly into the low 60s inland. Fog potential remains the main question tonight, as it will be a race between complete saturation and dry advection behind a weak boundary diving south in the early morning. Tds continue to run slightly higher than forecast, suggesting an increasing likelihood of shallow patches of fog this evening, although widespread vis issues are not anticipated.
Prev disc...Quiet/dry weather will continue through Wed. Weak high pressure building into the area late today will weaken as a lee trough/wind shift develops just east of the mountains. The lee trough/wind shift will advance east toward eastern NC late tonight but the airmass will be too dry to support any precipitation development with it. Clear skies and calm to light winds are expected, so some patchy, shallow fog will be possible late. Lows tonight will finally be near climo after the very warm and humid conditions of the past several days, in the mid/upper 50s interior to low 60s coast.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through 6pm Wednesday
As of 305pm Tue...A wind shift with no appreciable associated weather will pass through the area Wednesday followed by transient weak high pressure building back over the area. Highs will be range from the upper 70s beaches to the mid 80s inland. Winds will shift from the West early to the the North.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
As of 340am Tue... A ridge of high pressure pushes offshore Wednesday afternoon with a warm front lifting N'wards across NC Wednesday night into Thursday. We get a slight chance for showers and storms on Thursday before near record to record breaking heat overspreads the area late week. A cold front then impacts the area late in the weekend/early next week bringing a threat for some unsettled weather.
Wednesday night...As we get into Wednesday night a warm front lifts N'wards across NC. With this front bringing enough lift and moisture slowly returning to region once again, a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be accompanied by this frontal passage. Given the latest guidance the northern tier near the NC/VA border look to have the highest chances for seeing precip. For now have just kept in slight chance PoP's to the north of Hwy 264. Hi temps in the mid 80s inland with temps closer to the low 70s across OBX and lows in the 60s for Wednesday.
Thu...Upper level shortwave tracks E'wards across the Mid- Atlantic on Thu while at the surface, the warm front continues to lift N'wards making it well north of the area by late Thu night. Southerly flow at the surface will once again bring ample low level moisture N'wards across the CWA and as we get into peak daytime heating SBCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg are not out of the question especially along the Coastal Plain. Modest shear will also accompany this shortwave as well running a general risk for some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The current fly in the ointment to this forecast is that we will be under a cap Thu afternoon and with a lack of strong forcing any thunderstorm coverage may be rather limited and activity will likely propagate from any boundaries left over from activity Wednesday night. Given this have kept PoP's at slight chance to chance for Thu afternoon and evening. Hi's Thu get into the low to mid 90s across much of the area given the warm air advection regime with Lo's getting nearing 70 overnight.
Fri into early next week.. Ridging builds back into the Eastern Seaboard by Friday as the previously mentioned warm front exits the Mid-Atlantic Thu night. Onshore flow will return to the area once again with fair weather and mostly sunny skies forecast across ENC. These benign conditions will also be accompanied by a warming trend late this week into this weekend resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year with hi temps flirting with records on at least Fri. By Sunday the next potential frontal boundary begins to approach from the west and tracks across the area Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain. Cooler temperatures are also forecast behind this frontal boundary to start out the workweek next week
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 315pm Tue...Quiet conditions to continue across the waters through Wed. Current onshore flow 5-15 kt will become W to NW late tonight ahead of wind shift boundary. This boundary will cross the waters Wednesday morning with the flow becoming N to NE 10-15 kt behind it as high pressure builds back over the waters. As the high moves offshore late in the afternoon winds will become SE. Seas will continue 2-3 ft through the period.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT through SUNDAY/... As of 340am Tue... SE winds 10-15 kt Wednesday night as a warm front lifts N'wards. Onshore winds increase on Thu to 20-25kts in the wake of this N'ward lifting front as the pressure gradient tightens across the region with seas persisting at about 2-4 ft with occasional 5 ft seas across the deeper coastal waters. There is a chance for a brief period of SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) primarily along our coastal locations on Thu given the stronger winds but confidence is low in the expected duration of stronger conditions so will keep them out for now. The gradient relaxes some across the area on Friday allowing for S'rly winds to once again lower down to 15-20 knots.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 1015pm Tue...ENC is in the tail end of a high astronomical tide cycle assoc with the full moon early this week. The next two evening high tides (including the one occurring now) will continue to cause coastal inundation up to 1-2 ft above ground near the water front. The Coastal Flood Advisory continues in effect for the coastal zones from the Northern OBX south to Coastal Onslow County through late tomorrow evening.
Record High temps for 05/19
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 87/1977 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 97/1996 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1965 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 100/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 98/1962 (KNCA ASOS)
Record High temps for 05/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1964 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 97/1996 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1971 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1964 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205.