Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Wed Night...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sat...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023
High pressure builds in tonight, then shifts offshore late Tuesday, setting up an extended period of southerly flow across the Southeast US through the end of the work week. A strong cold front is then forecast to cross the Carolinas late Friday or Saturday.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 10pm Mon...High pressure will build in nearly overhead tonight, with clear skies and mostly calm winds expected inland. However, along the coast winds will remain elevated for the first part of the night due to the persisting strong gradient between the high and a deep area of low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Expect prime radiational cooling conditions to continue the rest of the night...temps have dropped into the upper 30s to low 40s as a result of this so far this evening. Low temps will be in the low to mid 30s across most inland locations (with some isolated locations possibly reaching the upper 20s), and upper 30s to low 40s along the beaches.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 245pm Monday...High pressure will continue over the area with dry weather and light winds. Weak return flow develops late as the high drifts off of the coast. With mostly sunny skies expected temps will moderate into the low 60s inland, with chillier 50s expected along the Outer Banks.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 300am Monday... BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will lead to benign, low-impact weather through Wednesday. The weather pattern turns more unsettled as a strong upper level wave impacts the area Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures will steadily warm through the week, peaking Thursday or Friday with well above normal temps, and the potential for record warm lows. Much cooler temperatures return next weekend behind the Thursday/Friday system.
FORECAST DETAILS: Ridging aloft and at the surface will support quiet conditions across Eastern NC (ENC) on Wednesday. Wednesday temps will be warmer than Tue, thanks to a not as cold start compared to Tuesday.
Upper level ridging will move off the coast Thursday as a fairly amplified trough develops across the Great Plains. This will lead to a SW flow pattern developing aloft across the Southeast US. This pattern will continue into Friday night before the upper trough finally clears east of the Southeast by Saturday. Model guidance continue to differ on the timing and evolution of the upper trough and the associated cold front that will eventually push through the area. That said, there is general agreement in the expected sensible weather.
Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, weak warm air advection (WAA) and weak moisture advection may support a few showers developing, potentially enhanced by an inland-moving coastal trough/warm front. Moisture looks fairly limited and not very deep, so the low chance of precipitation seen in blended guidance seems reasonable. Thursday night into Friday night is a different story. A deeper, and more anomalous, layer of moisture will get pulled north into the Carolinas in advance of the above-mentioned upper wave. Within this plume of moisture, PWATs (Precipitable Waters) of 1.25-1.50" is likely, along with boundary layer dewpoints rising into the mid, to perhaps, upper 60s. Mid-level lapse rates look poor, but with modest heating and mid to upper 60s dewpoints, we could realize 250-750 j/kg MUCAPE. This will occur in the presence of 40-50kt of deep layer shear, which could be supportive of at least a marginal severe thunderstorm risk. Synoptically, Friday looks like a scenario with a broad area of WAA-driven showers followed by a band of showers and thunderstorms along the advancing cold front. It doesn't appear to be a slam dunk potential for severe weather by any means, especially with the continued timing differences of the frontal passage, but something to watch in the coming days.
What is more certain is well above normal temperatures. An extended period of breezy southerly winds combined with warming low-level thicknesses will support well above normal temperatures Thursday and Friday, with record warm lows likely Thursday night. This will translate to highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Behind the cold front, much colder air moves in for the weekend.
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... As of 10pm Monday...Deepening low pressure well offshore will continue to move NNE and away from our waters tonight allowing surface high pressure to build in through Tue. Strong NW flow 20-30 kt with some gusts to 35 kt over the warmer outer waters through early evening will diminish to 15-20 kt this evening and 10-15 kt overnight. Winds on Tuesday will be light, 10 kt or less with the high overhead most of the day, becoming southerly in the afternoon as the high drifts away from our coast. Seas will be 5-8 ft tonight briefly subsiding to 3-5 ft Tuesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 300am Monday...Light winds will continue Wednesday thanks to high pressure overhead. Despite the light winds, model guidance suggests seas will either remain up, or possibly build, Tuesday night into Wednesday. This appears to be due to longer period swell arriving from a deepening coastal low well offshore. By Wednesday, seas of 4-7 feet will once again be possible, mainly across the central and northern coastal waters. Seas very briefly lay down Wednesday night, but will quickly build again Thursday into Friday as a period of stronger southerly winds develops ahead of a strong cold front. The strong winds will at minimum support solid SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions, with the potential for Gale-force gusts at the height of the winds on Friday. During this time, inland rivers will become choppy to rough. The cold front will be accompanied by widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially Thursday night into Friday night, some of which could produce strong wind gusts.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3pm EST Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Tuesday for AMZ156.