Marine Weather Net

Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ154 Forecast Issued: 1025 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
Overnight...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.
Thu Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sat Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft. Showers Likely.
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1025 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
Another dry cold front will move through late this week, with high pressure building in from the north this weekend. The next frontal system will impact the area early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1018pm EST Wednesday Jan 20 2021

Synopsis
Another dry cold front will move through late this week, with high pressure building in from the north this weekend. The next frontal system will impact the area early next week.

Near Term - Through Thursday
As of 1015pm Wed...Only minor tweaks to this update to reflect the current trends. Otherwise, the latest surface analysis continues to show weak high pressure in control across the region through tonight as winds become calm behind Cold Air Advection surge today. This sets the stage for good radiational cooling, as skies will be clear through most of the night. Have sided with coolest guidance and forecast lows in the upper 20s interior to 30s coast. Upper level moisture will stream into E NC by daybreak, and surface winds turn s to sw ahead of next weak front. Lows will likely be realized prior to sunrise as a result.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6pm THURSDAY/... As of 3pm Wed...Aforementioned front will sweep through during the day, with generally ovc skies. Sub cloud layer below around 8K ft will remain quite dry however due to subsident flow off the southern Appalachians, and therefore not much precipitation is expected in E NC. Decent uvv evident in the mid levels however, so sprinkles will pepper the region, especially during the morning hours, and have added scattered sprinkles to grids. Radar will likely indicate evidence of a good covg of virga falling due to the dry low levels.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 240am Wed...Dry weather is expected to continue late this week and through the weekend, with temperatures at or below normal. Then a fairly complex storm system will move over the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing the potential for rain and gusty winds.

Thursday And Friday
A weak front will move through the area on Thursday leading to mostly cloudy skies, and perhaps a few sprinkles across the area (low levels will remain dry). Though southerly flow and relatively high low level heigheights will be present, a fairly thick mid and high level cloud deck will limit temps to around normal in the low 50s. On Friday, this front should be well south of the area, and dry weather is expected, though some clouds (mostly high level) are possible across the area more or less south of US 70. Lower low level heights, but increased sunshine, should again balance out to highs in the low 50s.

Saturday and Sunday...A more significant "arctic" front will move through Saturday morning, but with little moisture associated with it, nothing more than a wind shift to the north is expected. This front will also usher in colder air, with Cold Air Advection increasing through the day and continuing into Sunday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will likely be relegated to only the low to mid 40s, with low temps expected to dip into the 20s Sunday morning as high pressure crests over the area.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will shift offshore Monday morning, as a developing low pressure system moves out of the lower Mississippi Valley. There are some small but significant (in terms of sensible weather) differences between forecast models at this time, but the low is expected to push a warm front through the region Monday, and then track very close to the area. Whether that is to the north or south, will lead to dramatic temperature differences, though P-type issues are not expected. Have introduced likely Probability of Precipitation for most of Monday, and then have Probability of Precipitation trailing off Monday night as the system pulls off the East Coast. Some lingering showers are possible Tuesday morning, but the majority of the day should be dry, and colder.

Marine
Short Term - Through Tonight: As of 1015pm Wed...The latest buoy observations are showing northernly winds 5-15 kts and seas 4-5 ft. Expect NW/W 5-15 kts tonight, becoming SW by sunrise with seas becoming 2-3 ft. Winds will increase to 15-25 kts by the afternoon with seas building to 4-6 ft once again. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) was reissued across the central and southern waters starting at 18z Thurs.

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 300am Wed...Winds will increase sharply Thursday ahead of a mostly dry cold front, becoming SW 20-25 kts by late morning, and then turning to the W late in the day. Seas will build to 4-6 ft late Thursday and last into Thursday night. Small craft conditions are likely for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, with other waters mostly staying below thresholds.

Winds will be NW 10-15 kts Friday, and then as another dry cold front cross the coastal waters Saturday morning, winds will increase to NNW 15-25 kts through Sunday morning. Seas will build to at least 3-5 ft, with some 6 footers possible across the outer portions of the coastal water zones. As a result, another period of small craft conditions for the coastal waters will be possible.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 1pm Thursday to 4am EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.