Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Rain.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Rain.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 10 To 15 Ft, Building To 12 To 17 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Rain.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 35 To 45 Kt With Gusts Up To 55 Kt. Seas 13 To 18 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Rain.|
|Sun...N Winds 30 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 12 To 17 Ft. Rain.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Gusts Up To 45 Kt In The Evening. Seas 9 To 14 Ft. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1008am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
A very strong and complex coastal low will impact the area beginning later today and move slowly northeast through this weekend. Another weaker low will move offshore early next week, before high pressure builds over the area mid week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1000am Friday...A heavier band of rain with embedded moderate to heavier showers has moved onshore of the southern portion of the Outer Banks and will continue to overspread the northern Outer Banks as well as mainland Hyde and Dare Counties later this morning. For the rest of the forecast area, lighter rain will prevail until heavier rain starts to overspread the area later this afternoon and into the evening as the low pressure system continues to deepen off of the coast. Currently temperatures showing a fairly wide range from the mid 40s inland to the mid 50s along the outer banks. Highest observed winds at this time are in the 15-20 kt range along the immediate coast with gusts increasing towards 30 kts by evening.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Saturday
As of 345am Friday...The coastal low will deepen as it slowly moves off the NC coast tonight producing a number of impacts to our CWA and adjacent coastal areas. Winds will increase drastically tonight and High Wind Warnings are now in place along areas adjacent to the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds and from eastern Carteret County northward with a Wind Advisory in effect in the tier of zones to the west. Widespread rain will continue tonight will the highest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast totals likely to occur between Ocracoke and Rodanthe with lesser amounts to the north and west. See more information below about the Coastal Flood products in effect to address some fairly significant water level rises that could produce severe and possibly destructive flooding in vulnerable areas. Lows tonight low/mid 40s inland, low/mid 50s Outer Banks.
Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
As of 430am Fri...Major coastal storm will bring a variety of significant impacts to coastal Eastern NC this weekend. A large trough may develop another weaker coastal storm through early next week before high pressure builds in around mid week.
Saturday through Sunday...Upper low will swing out over the southeastern U.S. coast, and spur surface cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast through the weekend. The upper and surface low will become more vertically stacked, aiding in further deepening on Saturday, with guidance continuing to suggest a sub-1000mb low slowly passing off the NC coast through the weekend. Most models have trended stronger with winds, and therefore confidence in the area receiving significant impacts has grown. See the Coastal Flooding section below for details. Wind gusts as high as 60 to 70 mph will afflict some of the coastal areas, namely the Outer Banks through Downeast Carteret county. Have issued high wind warnings for these areas, as well as the northeastern counties where winds will gust upwards of 60 mph or so. Wind adv criteria will be met for adjacent counties. Am a bit more concerned for heavy rain materializing, as some mesoscale processes will lead to heavier rain rates. Upright CSI occurs due to vigorous FGEN processes. Little in the way of CAPE will be realized, but these processes may lead to areas of higher rainfall totals possibly approaching 10 inches for some coastal areas. Due to the event being drawn out over 2 days, will not opt to issue a flash flood watch at this time.
Monday through Thursday...The coastal low will gradually lift northeast away from the region on Monday with slowly improving coastal conditions, while another shortwave trough digs into the Gulf States possibly developing another weaker coastal low, but it now appears that rain and winds if development occurs, will remain largely offshore. High pressure is forecast to build in by mid week.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 630am Friday...No major changes needed to the marine forecast. Winds have increased to N/NE 15-20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots. Seas remain at 4-5 feet. A strong coastal storm to produce severe impacts to eastern NC starting later today into the weekend. Given latest wind forecasts from both the high-resolution and global models, have upgraded Storm Watches to Storm Warnings starting early Saturday morning with Gale conditions likely to start on most of the area waters by later this evening. Seas will build from the current 4-5 feet to 7-10 feet by after midnight tonight. Conditions will deteriorate further on Saturday.
Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 430am Fri...Very active long term period with dangerous conditions developing Saturday and continuing through the entire weekend and into early next week.
Winds will increase to storm force across most of the waters, sounds and rivers. Have issued Storm warning for all but Pamlico River, which is in a gale warning, as latest 15/00Z model suite has trended a bit closer to the coast with respect to the low, and thus higher winds.
Seas will peak later Sat night through Sunday with 17-23 ft seas, highest northern and central waters. Very high seas will persist into the beginning of the work week despite the winds diminishing.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 430am Fri...A large and strong low pressure system will impact eastern NC this weekend as it slowly moves northeastward off of the Carolina coast. Persistent, very strong north to northeast winds will lead to significant, life-threatening coastal flooding. Soundside flooding will affect Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island, Downeast Carteret County, the Lower Neuse River in Craven County. Inundation is also possible across the lower extent of the Alligator River. Severe flooding will extend inland from the waterfront causing flooding of homes and businesses with some structural damage possible.
In some areas on the oceanfront north of Cape Hatteras, battering waves will cause damage to property. Numerous roads will be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles will be submerged. Some neighborhoods will be isolated and some areas may need to be evacuated. Portions of NC 12 will likely become inundated and impassible.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Wind Advisory from 7am Saturday to 5pm EST Sunday for NCZ045- 080-194-195-199. Coastal Flood Warning from 7am Saturday to 1am EST Monday for NCZ094-194-196-203>205. High Wind Warning from 7am Saturday to 5pm EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081-094-196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7am Saturday to 1pm EST Monday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7am Saturday to 1am EST Monday for NCZ080-081.
Gale Warning from 10am Saturday to 1pm EST Sunday for AMZ136. Storm Warning from 7am Saturday to 7am EST Sunday for AMZ137. Storm Warning from 7am Saturday to 5pm EST Sunday for AMZ131- 135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.