Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers Late This Evening. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 648 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
An area of low pressure will lift across central NC and SE VA Wednesday night followed by a cold front overnight/early Thursday. High pressure will build into the area late in the week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
754pm EDT Wednesday April 14 2021
An area of low pressure will lift across central NC and SE VA tonight followed by a cold front early Thursday. High pressure will build into the area late in the week.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 745pm Wed...Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis showing predominantly stable conditions over eastern NC which has put a lid on any robust storm activity. A strong storm initially over Johnston and Wilson counties collapsed while crossing the Pitt County line and expect any addition convection that does form to follow the same trend. An already mediocre severe threat tonight for inland locales now appears close to zero.
HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) still pointing to a better coverage of showers crossing the region overnight through morning. RAP indicating a modest amount of MLCAPE and kept a mention of thunder in the grids although no strong storms are anticipated.
Prev disc...High pressure will move offshore as a surface low develops across the Piedmont region and moves through overnight. Some scattered showers and tstms can be expected ahead of developing cold front associated with the surface low. Despite a favorable 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, severe parameters overall at the moment look lackluster given minimal instability (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg) available. Hi res guidance does show LLJ ramping up a bit just ahead of the line of storms, but does not look to provide sufficient moisture advection in time. Fcst soundings currently favoring elevated tstorms tonight with marginal risk for some gusty winds and small hail. Best chance for a strong to severe storm at this point looks to be around the Hatteras Island area, where some stronger storms developing over the Gulf Stream may move ashore. Overnight temps expected in the low 60s.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 335pm Wednesday...Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as a cut- off upper low over the Midwest continues to drift eastward, kicking up another weak surface low and cold front across NC. Schance for an iso shower in the morning with a better chance for showers along the Crystal Coast mid to late afternoon as the weak front moves through the region. A tstorm or two can't be ruled out, but very unlikely to become severe. Highs will be tamed by cloud cover, only reaching the low 70s during the aftn with upper 60s along the coast.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 350am Wednesday...A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday leading to a brief period of unsettled weather. The front stalls well south of the area Friday then lifts closer to Eastern NC by the weekend, with a weak area of low pressure passing just off the coast along the stalled boundary late Sunday into Monday. Near to slightly above average temperatures for the extended period.
Thursday...A closed upper low over upper Midwest will slowly drift southeast towards NY/PA Thursday. A weak front will move east from the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains to the VA/NC border. Weak low pressure begins to form along the slow moving front off the DELMARVA peninsula by Thurs afternoon. Trended Probability of Precipitation to reflect latest trends which have Chance Probability of Precipitation in the morning improving to Slight Change in the afternoon and eventually precipitation ending along the coast by sunset. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts range less than one tenth of an inch for Thurs with temps near normal, likely realized in the morning before moderate Cold Air Advection develops in the afternoon.
Thursday night into Saturday...The closed upper low deepens further as it moves east into the Northeast U.S. and eventually off the New England coast. The surface low becomes vertically stacked with the upper low during this period, well north of the area, while high pressure builds in from the west across Eastern NC. Mostly dry conditions through Friday night. On Saturday, the front that was stalled well south of the area will lift north closer the region, and have introduced slight chance Probability of Precipitation for Onslow to Oregon Inlet and southeast. Temps Fri and Sat remain near normal with highs near 70 inland, low/mid 60s along the coast.
Sunday into Tuesday...Uncertainty increases late in the period. Guidance is consistent that as the weak boundary lifts north closer to Eastern NC, a weak surface low will form along the boundary off the NC coast - just how close it is to the coast will determine precipitation chances, cloud cover, moderation of temps. For now, will hold with persistence for Sunday into Mon, slight chance Probability of Precipitation closer to the coast. Temps remain near or just a few degrees above normal for mid April.
Short Term /Through Wednesday/... As of 345pm Wednesday...Weak surface low tonight will ramp up Srly winds ahead of a cold front tonight into Thursday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) will be in effect for Pamlico Sound, southern and central waters. Wind gusts will reach about 25 kts before shifting SWrly behind the front before ramping down and turning Wrly by the afternoon. Seas will ramp up to 4-6 ft before gradually diminishing Thursday.
Long Term /Wednesday night through Friday/... As of 410am Wednesday...Cold front will move through the Eastern NC waters early Thursday with winds shifting more NW throughout the day. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will persist for the central and southern coastal waters through Thursday due to elevated seas behind the front. High pressure will build in from the west for Fri into Sat with winds shifting NW to N and diminishing to 10 kt or less by late Sat. Weak low pressure will form along a boundary lifting north near the southern coastal waters Sat night into Sunday, leading to another wind shift however winds remain 15 kt or less. Seas subside to 3-4 ft on Saturday and 2-3 ft on Sunday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5pm EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound).