Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Tue...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.|
|Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
945am EDT Sat August 8 2020
A weak frontal boundary will linger well inland today as a weak trough continues near the coast. The front will push offshore on Sunday with high pressure building in from the north.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 945am Saturday...We added a low threat for showers through late morning to account for some isolated activity showing up now near Greenville and near the central Outer Banks. Otherwise shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up into the afternoon. A mid-level shortwave will push off the mid-Atlantic states this morning with broad troughing continuing across the Southeast while a weak surface trough/frontal boundary continues across the piedmont. Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today as a moist and unstable airmass persisting and expect convection to develop on the sea breeze and lingering boundaries across the region. Most storms will remain below severe limits with weak 0-6km bulk shear mainly less than 20 kt, however PW values (Precipitable Water values) around 2" will bring heavy rainfall rates and could see localized flooding in areas that see training cells again this afternoon. Temps will be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s coast.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 345am Saturday...Ongoing convection will gradually wane through the evening with loss of surface heating and expect mainly dry conditions after midnight, though could see isolated showers over the coastal waters skirting coastal areas. Lows expected in the low to mid 70s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 3am Sat...Seasonable weather on tap through the long term period, with only minor day to day variability owing to subtle changes in the upper level pattern and strength of low level WAA.
Sunday and Monday...Expansive ridging aloft settles over the southern US, though there will be a localized weakness or very week shortwave that will linger over the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure becomes the dominate feature as a very weak surface boundary dissipates over the area, with mainly light SW flow and humid conditions persisting. While the broad subsidence aloft solicits below-normal POPs, the potential for the locally weaker subsidence justifies keeping 30-40% POPs focused mainly along and inland of the typical sea breeze corridor each afternoon. The severe weather threat is low, as updrafts will struggle to persist in the weakly sheared environment given the drier air aloft. Very slow storm motion could bring some minor local flooding issues under the strongest storms, but significant flash flooding is not expected. Temps will be near normal with plentiful sunshine each morning prompting temps to climb to near 90 away from the beaches.
Tuesday through Friday...A more pronounced weakness aloft develops mid to late week, with afternoon convective activity increasing in coverage each successive day. Continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze. Waning upper level subsidence and weak surface troughing gradually developing inland will allow for greater storm coverage (~50% Probability of Precipitation by Thu/Fri), and would be expected to initiate convection earlier in the day with less capping in place. Temps will generally continue to be near normal, with convection being the primary culprit for deviations from normal.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 945am Saturday...Outside of thunderstorm threat, marine conditions remain quiet this morning. A weak trough of low pressure continues inland with weak pressure gradients across the waters through the short term. Winds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas around 2-3 ft.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 3am Sat...It is tough to find a more prolonged period of favorable marine conditions than we will experience in the coming week. Expect S to SW winds around 10 kt or less early to mid week, with gusts to around 15 kt each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. Seas persist around 2 ft, with only minor medium period swell arriving to local waters and minimal contribution from locally generated windswell.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories