Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late This Morning And Early Afternoon, Then A Chance Of Showers Late. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less, Increasing To 1 To 3 Nm Early This Afternoon, Decreasing To 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Showers.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
923am EST Sat Dec 2 2023
An unsettled pattern continues through much of the weekend and into early next week as a series of low pressure systems impact the area. High pressure will build in mid to late next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 920am Sat...An area of low pressure now over the northern Gulf will track toward Tennessee by late today. Ahead of this low, a southwest flow of air will produce a mild and occasionally moist flow our area. The mild weather will prevail across eastern NC for the weekend. Looks like most of the precipitation over the next 36 hours will occur overnight tonight into early Sunday morning. The best chance for measurable precipitation today will be through early afternoon north of the Pamlico/Tar rivers as the initial batch of rain moves through. Otherwise, spotty light showers are expected this afternoon across eastern NC. These showers may become more numerous across the souther coastal plain towards evening. Low clouds will dissipate early this afternoon most locations but will linger near the sounds and waters north of Hatteras where cooler water temps are contributing to areas of locally dense fog which could linger into Sunday. Highs will range from the upper 60s coast, to the low to mid 70s inland.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 430am Sat...As the low mentioned above moves into southwest VA by Sunday morning, we see a slight increase in forcing which will lead to our best chance for showers overnight. With mild temps in the 60s, areas of patchy dense fog are again possible especially inland.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 4am Saturday... Sunday...As the mid-level ridge over the ECONUS builds and the trough over the Midwest deepens, the gradient will tighten and bring an uptick in winds. The surface low associated with this trough will drag a cold front across ENC late Sunday into Monday and bring Chance to Likely Probability of Precipitation with the chance for some offshore thunderstorms. The forecast has trended slightly drier over the past 24 hours with Sunday's daytime Quantitative Precipitation Forecast down to approx. 0.1". Temps have trended up with highs in the low to mid 70s across the coastal plain (upper 60s beaches).
Monday - Tuesday...Another mid-level trough will sweep across the Midwest on Monday causing another cold front to traverse ENC overnight into Tuesday. This front looks fairly dry with the only impacts on sensible weather being cooler temps and an uptick in winds. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s and at or just below 60 on Tuesday across the FA.
Wednesday...Not to sound like a broken record, but another mid-level trough will dig into the SECONUS early Wednesday. This system's cold front may support some showers along the OBX, but its passage will be felt more in terms of increased winds over the water and cooler overnight temps at or just below freezing across the coastal plain (beaches remain near 40).
Thursday - Friday...High pressure sets in behind Wednesday's FROPA and begins a warming trend through the end of the week and into the weekend (low 50s Thursday, near 60 Friday).
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 920am Sat...Dense marine fog has developed over the sounds and coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras as the warm moist airmass travels across the cooler waters. This fog could persist into Sunday morning. The flow across the waters will remain SW/S through Sunday. For the most part, winds are less than 15 kt across the waters, the exception being over the outer southern and central waters in a region of warmer SST's where the flow is 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt. This stronger flow has resulted in higher 5-6 ft seas and the need to extend the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) into mid afternoon. In addition A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued to account for the current and expected areas of sea fog across the sounds and coastal waters.
The gradient over the waters tonight will remain tight enough for southwest winds to approach 20 kts, especially over the outer waters toward the Gulf Stream with elevated waves of 4 to 5 feet. Nearshore and over the sounds, and cooler water, wind speeds will be much lower.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 4am Saturday... Sunday-Tuesday...Sunday will present the next SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for waters south of Cape Hatteras. SW winds 10-15 kt increase to 15-20 kt through the day. Expect 25 kt gusts by Sunday afternoon and 3-5 ft seas building to 4-6 (some 7 footers south of Ocracoke Inlet). Conditions drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria around midnight Monday. Waters north of Cape Hatteras will see SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt and 3-5 ft seas. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the waters south of Oregon Inlet return Monday night into Tuesday (NW winds 15-20 kt and gusts 25+ kt, 3-5 ft seas). Conditions improve during the day Tuesday and winds will back from NW to SW (10-15 kt).
Wednesday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions return with the strongest gusts of the period Wednesday afternoon/evening (NW 15-25 kt with 30+ kt gusts). Seas will build from 2-3 ft Wednesday morning to 3-5 ft by Wednesday night.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Dense Fog Advisory until 4pm EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 135-150-152-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)- 154-156-158.