Marine Weather Net

Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ152 Forecast Issued: 1004 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
Overnight...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.
Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Tue Night...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Wed...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Wed Night...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers And Tstms Likely After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
745pm EDT Monday July 15 2024

Synopsis
Moist southerly flow will continue to bring scattered afternoon and early evening storms through Tuesday. More numerous showers and storms arrive mid to late week as a front moves in and stalls. Hot and humid weather with dangerous heat indices last into mid week.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 740pm Monday...Thunderstorm activity is quickly falling apart across portions of Duplin and Onslow counties this evening, but persistent boundary roughly along Highway 64 continues to be an efficient focal point for convective development as we watch a small but potent cell drifting into Washington County. With loss of heating instability will wane, but like last night storm activity may continue well after sunset. Extended Probability of Precipitation for a few hours to account for this risk.

Another sultry night on tap with lows in the upper 70s inland and around 80 along the coast. Apparent temperatures along the Outer Banks will struggle to fall below 90 degrees.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 330pm Monday... KEY POINTS:

-EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH issued for central portions of the CWA

-HEAT ADVISORY issued for OBX, Crystal Coast, Coastal Onslow, and the Coastal Plain

-Scattered thunderstorms, some of them strong in nature, possible in the afternoon and evening hours

Tuesday brings conditions similar to today, although it will be a bit more windy and t-storm coverage along and ahead of the sea breeze will be a bit higher. Another hot, muggy day is in store, with forecasted heat indices approaching and possibly exceeding 110F. Will issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Tuesday from inland Onslow Co. moving NE to Mainland Dare Co., with heat advisories in place for the remainder of the CWA. the excessive heat WATCH is due to the possibility of excessive heat WARNING level conditions in the region, with at least heat advisory criteria temps expected. The area under an advisory has less confidence for excessive heat warning level conditions, but still firmly in the advisory category. Some factors that could throw a wrench in this forecast are widespread convection earlier than expected, higher winds allowing more mixing, and decreasing dewpoints as we get into the afternoon, and cloud cover building from the west moderating temps.

Storms can produce gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning as we have another high CAPE, high PWAT, low shear day.

High temps in the mid to upper 90s inland, near 90 for beaches.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 4am Mon...First part of the long term will be highlighted by intense heat and humidity, leading to high heat indices between 105-115 degrees. Then, a cold front moves into the region and stalls, bringing numerous showers and storms mid to late week.

Tuesday night...Lows are near the climo max, and readings will only fall to around 80 for many areas, esp east of hwy 17.

Wednesday through Sunday...More certainty for the back end of the week than last night at this time as 15/00Z model suite settling on a front moving into eastern NC and stalling mid week into the weekend. PW values (Precipitable Water values) return to ~2.25" or higher on Wednesday and remain there through the end of the week into the weekend bringing more numerous showers and storms. Instability will be high Wednesday through Fri (2000-3000 J/Kg), but shear weak (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms that develop will be wet microburst winds and heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously high heat indices. probability of precipitation peak on Thu-Fri in the 60-70% range, and capped at high chance 50% on the weekend until mesoscale details become more clear, though should be noted that these vals are still above climo.

Marine
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/... As of 4pm Monday...Winds will be out of the SW at 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt across the central waters and Pamlico Sound this afternoon. Seas are 3-4 ft, slowly building to 3-5ft Tuesday afternoon. Of greatest concern are the 100+ heat indices and strong afternoon/evening thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning both through this evening and tomorrow afternoon/evening. Convection will be most active across the rivers and sounds with weakening showers and storms moving towards the coastal waters this evening. Special Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements are possible.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Thursday/... As of 4am Mon...Thermal gradient inc to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Tuesday night into Wed, and have issued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sound and the nrn/ctrl waters. Seas will build to 4-6 by Wed. Rain and storm chances will increase from Wednesday through the end of the week.

Climate
Record High temps for 07/15

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/1993 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 92/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 101/1932 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 97/1986 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 101/1993 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 101/1993 (NCA ASOS)

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...
Heat Advisory from 10am to 8pm EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044- 079-090-091-195-196-199-203>205. Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Tuesday to 2pm EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Tuesday to 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154.