Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft Late. Dominant Period 11 Seconds.|
|Tue...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 6 Ft. Dominant Period 12 Seconds.|
|Wed...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming E. Seas Around 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
219pm EDT Monday September 23 2019
High pressure centered offshore will push east today as TS Jerry lifts north towards Bermuda. A dry cold front will approach the area tonight and push across the area Tuesday. High pressure builds back in through the rest of the work week into next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1130am Monday...No significant changes made with the late morning update. The pre-sea breeze front scattered cu coverage has begun to form across Carteret County, and should continue to progress inland through the rest of the day. 12Z KMHX sounding shows very dry air above 900 mb, so dry forecast continues with temps around 80 for most, on their way to highs in the mid-80s away from the beaches.
Previous Discussion...High pressure that has been centered off the mid-Atlantic coast and ridging into the area will push eastward today as TS Jerry lifts north towards Bermuda while a thermal trough strengthens across the piedmont. The upper ridge over the area flattens today as a shortwave trough approaches from the west, but will continue to see dry conditions and mainly sunny skies today. Gradients will tighten some today with SW winds around 10-15 mph this afternoon bringing a few degrees of warming over yesterday and expect highs in the mid 80s inland to lower 80s coast.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Tuesday
As of 300am Monday...The shortwave trough and attendant cold front will approach the area tonight and will see clouds increase late but deep layer westerly downslope flow will keep dry conditions east of the Appalachians. Light SW flow persists tonight bringing milder over night temps and expect lows in the mid 60s inland to around 70 coast.
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
As of 200pm Sunday...A robust shortwave crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday with an attendant cold front moving across the area Tuesday. Models have varied with the timing of the front over the past several model cycles so confidence in the timing isn't that high. Moisture still looks limited however with best dynamics staying north of the area and guidance continues to show little to no precipitation and will keep minimal PoPs in the forecast. Temps are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal through Tuesday.
Dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with near zonal flow aloft. The high then slides offshore Wednesday night and Thursday with a ridge building aloft bringing additional warming. A backdoor cold front approaches the area late in the week and may push into the area Friday, though guidance has not in best agreement with how far south the front will push. Moisture and dynamics remain limited and guidance is primarily dry so keeping Probability of Precipitation low. Temps expected to be several degrees above normal much of the period and could see high around 90 inland Thursday and Friday. The exception being NE section/OBX if the aforementioned front pushes into the area bringing onshore flow.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 730am Monday...High pressure offshore weakens today while a thermal trough strengthening across the piedmont and a cold front approaches from the west. SW winds increase to 10-20 kt this afternoon through tonight. TS Jerry will lift north across the western Atlantic to near Bermuda and will see long period swells build across the coastal waters through the period. Seas around 2-4 ft today will build to 4-6 ft by late tonight and have initiated a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the coastal waters.
Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 220pm Sunday...A cold front is forecast to push across the waters Tuesday with winds becoming N to NE around 5-15 kt. High pressure migrates across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with wind around 10 kt gradually veering to E to SE by late in the day. Winds veer to SW and increase to 10-15 kt Wednesday night and Thursday.
Seas will be around 2-4 ft Monday, then build to 4-6 ft Monday night through Tuesday night as swell from TC Jerry move into the waters. Seas are expected to subside back to 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 2am Tuesday to 1pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6am Tuesday to 11am EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2am Tuesday to 9am EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.