Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To Around 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Morning. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
|
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 927am EDT Thu May 15 2025 Synopsis Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. Near Term - Today As of 930am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES -am thunderstorms with heavy rain and small hail possible - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening No significant changes needed to previous forecast for am update. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms ongoing across the southern half of the area this morning. There should be a lull in convective activity for several hours later this morning and early afternoon due to the stronger cap in place. However, by mid to late afternoon, heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year. Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for some higher end severe weather. However, convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the SW. At the SFC, forcing looks to be primarily driven by sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may also provide some support for lift. Short-term guidance is in generally good agreement depicting at least isolated convective development where lift is maximized. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive, showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly, should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep convection can develop and be sustained. Stay tuned for updates on this potential. Short Term - Tonight As of 245am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Decreasing risk of thunderstorms tonight Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after midnight, and the forecast will reflect a decreasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday As of 0400 Thursday... Ridging will continue on Friday with very warm temperatures arriving with a punch. Expect much of the area to battle with the lower 90s and summer- like humidity. The ridge continues to show signs of holding drier weather for Friday with Probability of Precipitation retreating northward away from the ridge's periphery. With that said, instability will be building to, if not higher than, 3kJ/kg in the afternoon thanks to ample heating so showers and tstorms are not out of the question should the sea/sound/river breezes be enough to initialize. Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight. Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend. Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 930am Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Increased risk of thunderstorms this morning - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening Latest obs show W-SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this morning. Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20kt will be common through tonight, although a period of lighter 5-15kt winds is expected this morning. Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25kt will be possible across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the risk doesn't appear significant enough to warrant any marine headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). The thunderstorm risk then diminishes during much of the day, before returning late afternoon into this evening. The coverage should be more scattered in nature by then. Where thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. Long Term - Friday Through Monday As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
Newport NC Radar
Southeast Radar
East Coast Satellite