Marine Weather Net

Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

S
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ152 Forecast Issued: 1013 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. A Few Gusts Up To 25 Kt Early This Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds.
Tonight...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Thu Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sat...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1023am EDT Tuesday April 16 2024

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will stall over eastern North Carolina today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

Near Term - Today
As of 10:15am Tues...Northern CWA (County Warning Area) observations are showing an impressive northeasterly surge behind the front, so winds were bumped up for the next few hours and a Marine Weather Statement was issued for all inland rivers and sounds until noon. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...As of 650am Tue...Eastern NC sits between split flow regime aloft as a mid- level trough and jet streak pushes across New England early this morning, while heigheights increase across the South as ridging increases ahead of a upper low gradually easing its way into the central Plains. The surface backdoor cold front continues to edge south, just now passing past Duck and lifting north along the Ohio River Valley.

Primary focus for today will be convective potential. Where the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls will be difficult to pin down, but to its south temperatures will be able to climb well into the 80s, particularly across the southern coastal plain. Combined with dew points in the low 60s, surface CAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) will be able to climb to at least 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon, and up to 1500 J/kg in a worst- case scenario. The limiting factor will be lift with ridging and subsidence aloft, at least until tonight as a weak embedded s/w and associated PVA cross NC tonight. CAMs hint at isolated to scattered convection firing ahead of this feature across central NC and racing eastward into the evening hours. By then, however, available instability will quickly drop with a loss of heating and the stabilizing effects of local sea and sound breezes. The best chances for seeing any convection will be across the far inland coastal plain, but the risk is low (no higher than 20%). The risk of any severe thunderstorms is minimal - less than a 2% chance.

Behind the front, cooler northeasterly to easterly onshore flow will cap temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Along the Outer Banks, highs will settle in the upper 60s.

Short Term - Tonight
As of 330am Tue...Any convection that does develop will quickly fall apart overnight, giving way to partly clear skies. Upper level clouds will gradually increase as closed low and attendant surface cyclone over the Plains lift towards the Great Lakes and the stalled frontal boundary gives way to weak south to southwesterly flow. Temperatures remain mild with the mercury bottoming out around 60, upper 50s across northern OBX and the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
As of 4am Tuesday... A fairly active pattern is on tap this week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this weekend.

Wednesday through Friday night...Upper ridging will crest over the area early Wednesday then will flatten as a weakening trough lifts NE'wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley. Assoc. mid level shortwave will push across the area Wednesday night which may provide enough support to bring isolated showers across the region. Upper ridging will build back over the area Thursday with the axis cresting over the area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing but another dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is forecast to push across the area late Friday and Friday night, which may bring isolated showers across the region. Temps will remain above average across the Coastal Plain with highs generally in the low to mid 80s each day with a few upper 80s possible on Thursday. Highs along the coast will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday with NNE onshore flow keeping temps in the 60s across the OBX on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall just off the coast Saturday night. Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area with surface low pressure developing along the offshore front, which is forecast to push off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure builds in from the west. Saturday looks to be another warm day with temps well above normal inland with highs in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s.

Marine
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/... As of 335am Tuesday...Benign conditions in place over area waters this morning as a backdoor cold front across central VA gradually pushes southward, expected to cross the waters through today while Atlantic high pressure remains to the south. The front will usher in a wind shift from the currently observed south to southwesterly flow at around 10 kt to east-northeast to easterly at 10-15 kt. Early Wednesday morning, the boundary will lift back northward with winds veering southerly by daybreak Wednesday.

Winds will not be strong enough to build SCA-level seas, as wave heigheights will likely top out at around 3-5 feet across Raleigh Bay and the waters north of Cape Hatteras in the ENE to E flow.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 445am Tuesday...An active pattern will prevail in the long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold fronts move into the waters. Strongest winds through the period are expected Wednesday through Thursday with SW winds around 10-20 kt. The front will push through Thursday night and stall offshore Friday with pressure gradients weakening. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
None.