Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt Late. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Patchy Fog This Morning.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft, Building To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
357am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
A cold front will approach the area today with limited moisture and push through tonight. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late next week.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 330am Sun...Anomalously strong upper level ridge continues to sit over the southeastern CONUS although it has slowly been shifting east as barotropic low over the Upper Midwest pushes towards the Great Lakes. When this ridge shifts offshore (and associated height falls to the west begin) is a key question in today's forecast. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure was analyzed ridging into Florida with a front located near the NC/VA line.
It will feel more like a summer day across eastern NC today with low-level thicknesses climbing to 1415-1425 m and 850 mb temperatures possibly reaching +20 C (shattering the MHX record of +13.8 C per sounding climatology). Given how warm yesterday turned out and with the higher thicknesses, nudged high temperatures up another degree or so today resulting in fairly widespread low 90s inland. Low 80s are expected for northern OBX with 70s along the remaining beaches.
One interesting element of today's forecast involves the attendant cold front from the Midwest low as it begins to cross NC today. A minority of hi-res guidance (NMM, HREF, and the HRRR ensembles) depict the upper ridge shifting east fast enough to induce height falls over central NC and the coastal plain, allowing some instability to be realized and a few thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front. If such a threat were to develop, MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 45-50 kt suggest a few stronger storms are possible. Opted to keep forecast dry for now given majority of guidance favors another dry day, but situation will have to be monitored in future updates.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 345 AM...Front will cross the region tonight. If precipitation threat is realized it should come to an end well before midnight. Drier airmass will advect in behind the front with high pressure attempting to build in from the southwest. Cold Air Advection expected behind the front but with thicknesses slow to fall, it will be another mild night with low to mid 60s across the entire region. Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected behind the front.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As 3am Sun...High pressure will briefly build across the area Monday. Low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night, pushing offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week. Another front will approach the area late next weekend. Above normal temps will continue Monday, then returning to near climo Tuesday through the period.
Monday...High pressure will briefly build across the area. Slightly cooler conditions expected Monday behind the front. As a result of little to no Cold Air Advection behind the front temperatures should once again climb into the upper 70s and low 80s inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected on Tuesday over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to track northeast along the NC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday then continue to deepen Wednesday afternoon off of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall is expected late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) approaching 1.25". Increased probability of precipitation to categorical, with WPC showing 0.75-1.25" qpf amts. Bulk of precipitation should be ending by late Wednesday morning, with lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible across the area through Wednesday night. Strong winds will develop late Tuesday night, peaking Wednesday, strongest along the coast. Minor water level rises will be possible, especially for oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, along with rough surf. Low level thickness values, increasing clouds and NE/E flow support highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s Tue, and a few degrees cooler Wed, 55-60 deg.
Thursday through Sunday...High pressure will build in from the west late week into the first part of the weekend, resulting in dry weather and moderating temps near climo. The next frontal system will approach the area late next weekend. Highs generally 65-70 deg inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and overnight lows 45-55 deg.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 400am Sun...Buoys and local obs showing seas 3 feet north of Oregon Inlet with 4-6 feet elsewhere. Southwest winds of 15-20 kts were reported mainly north of Ocracoke, but the normally windy Diamond Shoals is lower thanks to a cool eddy (per water temps in the upper 50s) significantly inhibiting robust mixing. Strong southwesterly flow is expected to continue today as cold front begins to approach the waters late. Seas expected to reach a peak of 6-7 feet overnight. Winds weaken and veer west-northwesterly as the front nears and crosses the waters by the end of the period with seas quickly diminishing below 6 feet by sunrise. Shortened the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) over the far northern waters per weaker than expected winds, but otherwise existing SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 3am Sun...As high pressure builds over the waters Mon, NW winds 10-20 kt will become W 10-15 kt. Seas 3-5 ft early Mon subsiding to 2-4 ft. Confidence is low but could see a brief period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions develop Monday night into Tuesday morning, as surface low strengthens to the north and gradient tightens between low and approaching system. N/NE winds will increase to 15-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. Tuesday ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to the E 10-15 kt. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong N/NE winds 20-30 kt will develop late Tue night, peaking Wednesday and gradually subsiding Wednesday night. Confidence is increasing that waters will see a period of gale force winds Wed. Seas will build Tuesday night, peaking at 6-13 ft Wed. Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding Thursday as high pressure builds over the area. NW winds 10-20 kt subsiding to 10-15 kt with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft by afternoon.
Record High temperatures possible today 3/29
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 88/1985 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/2012 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1985 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 84/2012 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 91/1910 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1985 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Monday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory from 5pm this afternoon to 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ150.