Marine Weather Net

Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

N
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

THU

NW
WINDS
20 - 30
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

NW
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ152 Forecast Issued: 720 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
Today...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt Late. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 6 To 8 Ft This Afternoon. Wave Detail: Ne 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds, Becoming Ne 8 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Rain Early This Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Late This Morning. Rain This Afternoon.
Tonight...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 9 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Rain.
Thu...Nw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: Ne 8 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds, Becoming Ne 7 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Rain Likely With A Chance Of Snow In The Morning, Then A Slight Chance Of Rain And Snow In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 5 Seconds And N 7 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Snow In The Evening.
Fri...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 7 Ft At 5 Seconds And N 6 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: N 5 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 9 Seconds.
Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
717am EST Wednesday Feb 19 2025

Synopsis
Low pressure will track just off the NC coast later today and tonight and bring a wintry mix of precipitation to eastern NC. Arctic high pressure will follow and migrate from the northern Plains to the Middle Atlantic, producing cold and dry weather late Thu into Sat. A warming trend is expected Sunday into early next week.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 717am Wed...No big changes. Rain is spreading north acrs the southern zones, while cold/dry air is filtering south across the northern FA. TD's are only in the teens across NE NC, and this will set the stage for efficient wet bulbing as precipitation cont to spread north across ENC, with wintry precipitation starting as early as later this morning. Highest impacts still look to be late in the day today and esp tonight.

Prev disc...As of 5am Wed... KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is high that wintry weather will occur leading to significant impacts from accumulating snow, sleet, and ice.

- An increase in area and amounts of freezing rain expected over portions of ENC, while snow amounts are slightly less.

- Preexisting Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories continue.

Main change with this forecast update was to delay the start time of the warnings and advisories for most counties in the southern half of the FA, as precipitation should be liquid for most of the day today. Increased icing (freezing rain) amounts for most areas under the winter storm warnings. In fact, we are expecting some areas to get close to 0.50" of fzra, which would begin to have bigger implications for power outages and tree damage.

Wave of low pressure cutting across Florida leads to further sharpening of offshore troughing leading to cyclogenesis just off of the NC coast through today/tonight. The low, while rapidly deepening in response to moderate mid- level height falls overspreading the region, will pass just offshore around midnight Wednesday and continue to lift into the Nern Atlantic lateweek. The low will bring a variety of precipitation types to ENC with rain along the immediate coast for a good portion of the event, snow to the far north, and a mix of sleet and freezing rain in between.

All liquid precipitation overspreads the FA from S to N this morning as the trough sharpens into the low and moisture rich midlevel flow off the Gulf opens up ahead of the approaching trough aloft. As this initial band of rain works over the Inner Banks and approaches the Coastal Plain, the strengthening cold wedge at the SFC will lead to periods of freezing rain and sleet in the transition zone and some snow mixing in in far northern areas where the depth of subfreezing air is greater. As the low strengthens and approaches from the SW, cold and dry advection strengthens which will actually lead to T's actually falling through the afternoon due to strong wet bulbing, expanding the area of freezing rain and sleet Sward with it by late in the day today. Expecting all precipitation along and E of HWY17 to remain liquid through the afternoon, and therefore delayed start time of the WSW's accordingly. Eventually all precipitation is expected to transition to wintry mix of snow and freezing rain by early evening, before ending most locations by dawn Thu. Possibly mix hanging on along the immediate coast. Trying to determine where the dividing line between the snow/sleet and freezing rain is still uncertain, with some of the CAM's indicating more sleet than snow, therefore cutting down on snow amounts across the north. For this reason have backed off a bit on snow totals far north, though still within the warning criteria range. This will unfortunately mean a larger area of more significant fzra, with a larger footprint of 0.25" to as high as 0.50" possible for much of the coastal plain south through interior Onslow. Amounts reaching or exceeding 0.50" may have bigger implications for power outages due to the weight of ice on powerlines and trees.

Coastal Onslow and western Carteret counties will see rain today, but a period of freezing rain is possible tonight before the precipitation ends. Have therefore delayed start time of the winter weather advisory for these zones until 7PM tonight.

The northern Outer Banks continue to show the greatest variations in model solutions ranging from more significant snow and sleet, to mostly rain. Remained on the more pessimistic side of guidance there with potential for higher snowfall totals near the Albemarle Sound, especially for areas north of Kitty Hawk to Duck.

Finally, have adjusted Mainland Dare to an advisory, as should be mostly rain here with just some wet snow or sleet mixing in with minimal impacts. Very little fzra is expected here.

Short Term - Thursday
As of 5am Wed...Heavy wintry precipitation will have since ended by Thu AM, though some snow showers are possible later Thu morning to early afternoon with upper low pivoting through. These snow showers will produce little impact, with accums less than a half inch. It will be cold and blustery with highs only in the low/mid 30s, and wind chills well down into the 20s even during the afternoon hours.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday
As of 340am Wednesday...Very cool and dry to end the week with temps moderating and precipitation chances increasing late in the period.

Thu- Although the offshore low will have departed, the upper low/trough will swing through Thu. There should be enough residual moisture for this feature to kick off a few light snow showers in the morning through early afternoon. Just a dusting of accumulation is expected. It will remain cold with highs only in the 30s combined with a stiff NW wind.

Late week - Early Weekend: In the wake of the mid-week system, guidance continues to show a solid signal for dry weather and below to well below normal temperatures as cool arctic high pressure builds toward Eern Seaboard Fri then shifts offshore late Saturday.

Late weekend - Early Next Week
Some moisture is expected as another low approaches the area with models indicating large differences on how much precipitation will occur. Thus will limit Probability of Precipitation to 20-30% confined mainly to the immediate coast. Highs are forecast to warm into the 40s Sat, the 50s Sunday and Mon, and 60s on Tue.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 5am Wed...Sharpening coastal trough will approach the coast and the resultant gradient will bring a marked increase in northeasterly winds today. At the same time coastal low pressure will strengthen as it moves off of the NC coast through tonight. Gale warnings cont for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound as a result, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions for the rest of the sounds and inland rivers. Seas will respond by building to as high as 11 feet for the coastal waters.

Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 340am Wednesday... Strong winds and elevated seas will continue Thu into Fri as the pulls away and cold advection aids the northerly flow. N to NW winds 20-30 kt are expected Thu and Thu night with 6-10 ft seas. Winds decrease to 10-20 kt Fri with seas subsiding to 3-6 ft. N winds will be 10-15 kt Fri then NW 10 kt or less Sunday. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Sat and 2-4 ft Sunday.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 10am EST Thursday for NCZ029- 044>046-079-080-090-091-193. Winter Weather Advisory from 1pm this afternoon to 10am EST Thursday for NCZ047-081. Winter Storm Warning from 4pm this afternoon to 10am EST Thursday for NCZ092-094-194-198. Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm this evening to 10am EST Thursday for NCZ195-199. Winter Storm Warning until 10am EST Thursday for NCZ203.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning until 5am EST Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 6pm this evening to 5am EST Thursday for AMZ150.