Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Mon Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 1005 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A cold front will approach from the west today and move across the area this evening. High pressure will build into the area for the beginning into the middle of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
126pm EDT Sunday April 11 2021
A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon and move across the area this evening. High pressure will build into the area for the beginning into the middle of next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 120pm Sunday...Quiet and warm afternoon across eastern NC with some lines of cumulus forming inland. Some modest instability indicated by mesoscale analysis inland. Most of our CWA remains in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) threat of severe weather for later this evening as a couple of strong to marginally severe storms are possible. However, latest CAMs indicate very limited coverage of convection during the evening. If any strong storms occur, gusty winds and hail would be the primary threats this evening. No change to forecast high temperatures this afternoon with upper 70s to lower 80s for most areas, with some mid 80s deep inland.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Monday
As of 650am Sunday...Ongoing scattered strong to possibly severe convection should begin to weaken after 0Z with loss of heating. The front will move offshore after midnight followed by clearing and cooler air as high pressure begins to build in behind the front. Lows will be in the mid 50s inland and around 60 beaches.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As of 425am Sun...Long term forecast begins with upper low over the Great Lakes being absorbed into another upper low over the Upper Midwest on Monday. This low eventually settles over the Great Lakes by midweek, while another upper cyclone (originating from energy breaking off the first low) stalls over the western CONUS. This sets up a blocking pattern over the country through the week with the Carolinas under broad cyclonic flow for the second half of the week.
Monday and Tuesday...Dry days in store as weak high pressure builds in from the west behind the front. Another cold front is forecast to cross eastern NC late Monday night into Tuesday but with very little moisture to work with (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) generally under a half inch) only real consequence should be a wind shift and increased cloud cover.
Wednesday And Thursday
Guidance has come into better agreement regarding the approach of yet another cold front as a lobe of energy rotates around the eastern CONUS low. This should help pull a slug of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the southeastern states with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) over the Carolinas rising to around an inch and a half. This is the first guidance has come into reasonable agreement on this feature and thus kept Probability of Precipitation low for now, pending run-to-run consistency. Thursday should be primary dry as considerably drier airmass advects in behind the front.
Friday and Saturday...Uncertainty increases late in the period. There is general ensemble consensus that Friday should also be dry before another system impacts the region next weekend. Details on its evolution are murky and for now kept only slight chance Probability of Precipitation in the forecast.
Slightly above average temperatures to start the week trend to below average by midweek.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 125pm Sunday...Most all of the high-resolution model guidance shows an uptick in winds during the afternoon with 15-20 knot winds expected with some gusts to 25 knots. Seas are currently 4-6 feet and maybe build as high as 7 feet later in the afternoon. Continue the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) as conditions will remain rough through tonight. An approaching cold front should move offshore after midnight with winds shifting to NW and diminishing to 10-15 kt. Seas rebuild to 5-8 ft (highest central waters) this evening. Seas are then expected to slowly subside early Monday morning.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 440am Sun...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions come to an end midday tomorrow as high pressure builds into the area. NW winds 10-15 kt in the morning back southwesterly across the southern and central waters behind a developing sea breeze, with NE winds at 5-10 kt for northern waters. Seas fall to 2-3 feet by Tuesday morning.
Another front crosses the region late tomorrow and Tuesday, veering winds to the north at 10-15 kt for northern and central waters. From here, persistent northerly winds of 10-20 kt are forecast across the coastal waters and sounds with low pressure lingering off the coast for a few days. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible across the outer waters during this period but the main concern is seas building above 6 feet with the steady northerly fetch. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are possible mid to late week.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 3am EDT Monday for AMZ150.