Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 9 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1007am EST Wednesday Jan 22 2020
Cold high pressure will prevail across the region through Thursday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area late Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front through early next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 10am Wed...Current forecast in good shape with no changes this cycle.
Prev disc...High pressure will continue to edge slowly east across NC through tonight as low pressure in the southwest Atlantic moves further out to sea. The result will be a continuation of the dry weather pattern with below normal temperatures and clear to partly cloudy skies. Winds will gradually diminish, especially inland during the afternoon. The combination of wind and cold temperatures in the 20s will produce Wind Chill values of 15-20 degrees across most inland locations early this morning. There will be some moderation in temps today with highs reaching 45-50 degrees /about 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday/.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday
As of 225am Wed...High pressure will continue over the area tonight. Skies in most locations should start out mostly clear but some increase in clouds from east to west is expected after midnight. A weak trough of low pressure just off of the coast will help to produce isolated to scattered showers offshore. Some of the high-res models indicate a few of these showers moving across the Outer Banks toward dawn. For now will continue with a dry forecast as any activity will have to overcome dry mid level air, subsidence, and the cooler shelf waters. Lows will be 25-30 inland and upper 30s to lower 40s beaches.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 300am Wed...Seasonable conditions on tap Thursday ahead of a cold front that will bring rainfall to much of the area later Friday into Saturday. Settled conditions return later Saturday into early next week as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Thursday through Saturday...Ridging persists inland on Thursday with weak troughing off the coast. Temps will be near normal with persistent mid-level subsidence keeping a dry forecast in place everywhere except the southern OBX, were a few light showers developing offshore could sneak back over the beaches at times. Height falls as the upper ridge axis moves east of the area will bring ample cirrus coverage through the day Thursday.
A cold front associated with stacked low pressure lifting from the Ohio Valley towards the Northeast will approach the area Friday, crossing Saturday morning. Models have trended a bit stronger with the prefrontal southerly LLJ and warm air advection as there is now good agreement for a wave of low pressure developing within the front to lift across central NC toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will allow PWAT (Precipitable Water) values to climb to near 1.25 in, around 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year, and, given the dynamic enhancement from the wave passing just to our west, 0.25-0.5 in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is likely across the area Friday evening through Saturday morning in mainly light to moderate showers. Low mid- level lapse rates will limit instability and severe weather is not expected.
High pressure centered over the Gulf Coast will build in in earnest behind the front later Saturday. Westerly post-frontal low level trajectories indicate that Cold Air Advection will be very modest Saturday afternoon and overnight.
Sunday through Tuesday...Deep layer subsidence will keep a dry forecast in place late in the weekend into early next week. High pressure building in from the southwest will generally be mild, and near normal temps are expected.
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 10am Wed...Dropped the Gale Warning for the Pamlico Sound and replaced with a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the remainder of the day. Winds will gradually weaken as low pressure over the Bahama shifts to the east, weakening the pressure gradient.
Prev disc...Strong winds and dangerous seas this morning will gradually diminish later today and tonight as high pressure slides east across the waters and the southwest Atlantic low pulls further out to sea. Winds have diminished enough to allow the Gales north of Oregon Inlet and the Albemarle Sound region to be lowered to a SCA. South of Oregon Inlet Gales will continues as winds will gust to 35 kt over the outer waters for most of today. N/NE winds 25-35 kt this morning will diminish to 20-30 kt this afternoon and 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 7-11 ft early this morning will subside to 5-9 ft late today and 4-7 ft by early Thu.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 3am Wed...Breezy north to northeast winds Thursday morning trend more moderate Thursday night as inland ridging begins to weaken and low pressure well off the Southeast coast moves further east. Light to moderate easterly flow prevails Friday before winds become southerly and quickly increase back to breezy Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind become westerly behind the front into early next week.
Hazardous seas (4-7 ft) continue Thursday and Friday, before seas increase with the arrival a southerly windswell Friday night, peaking at 6-10 ft around sunrise Saturday. Seas then gradually subside through the rest of the weekend.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 3am Wed...North to northeast gales persisting this morning could cause minor water level rises across the southern Pamlico Sound from Ocracoke Island to the Lower Neuse River, with inundation of around 1 ft or less possible for very low lying areas mainly Downeast Carteret County. Additionally, low pressure moving from off the Southeast coast toward the central Atlantic could result in elevated tide levels on the ocean and near inlets mid- week into the weekend.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EST this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST this evening for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning until 4pm EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning until 7pm EST this evening for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EST Sunday for AMZ150.