Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346pm EDT Thu July 18 2019
Synopsis: The area will remain between subtropical high pressure offshore and a weak troughing inland through early next week. A front will approach and stall near the area by the middle of next week.
Near Term - Tonight
As of 1015am Thu...The latest meso-analysis showing a high pressure well offshore and an inland trough, while the shortwave trough axis is over central NC this afternoon. Most of this morning's clouds reduced the chance for the sea breeze to fully develop...therefore showers and thunderstorms chances reduced...but most of the latest Hi-res models are showing sea breeze convection to develop from Belhaven to Manteo later this afternoon which the latest radar returns are supporting. Plus, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to move in from the west as the trough axis shifts across ENC this evening. Shortwave will gradually breakdown into more of a generally weakness in the trough aloft tonight. Deep layer moisture and conditional instability will keep at least a mention of slight chance POPs in the forecast overnight, with greatest chances near the greater low level lapse rates over the ocean. Generally warm and muggy conditions with lows in the mid/upper 70s inland to around 80 degrees along the coast
Short Term - Friday
As of 330pm Thurs...More of the same pattern with surface high pressure well offshore and inland trough, while heigheights aloft gradually build back in. The main story for tomorrow will be the heat and humid...will issue a heat advisory for the area, except for the Outer Banks (at this time). Expect widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly along the sea breeze as the atmosphere is quite unstable. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to low 90's along the OBX
Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
As of 305pm Thursday...The long term period will be characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the northern CONUS with the southern U.S. stuck under a broad ridge through the end of the week. By the beginning of next week, a deepening low over the Gulf of Alaska will help promote a more amplified pattern across the CONUS with strong ridging over the west and a deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts to eastern NC weather is a typical summer surface pattern into early next week with high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the more pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the region and increase precipitation coverage.
Saturday and Sunday...Continued hot and very humid for the weekend with similar temperatures both days. Thicknesses increase with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ C across eastern NC. As the upper level trough begins to amplify to the west. heigheights will fall some Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs over the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping PoPs at 30% for the period.
Monday thru Wed...A break in the heat is finally in sight as the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heigheights across the region and helping to usher a front south across the mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas by mid-week. While there are still model differences regarding timing and progression of the front Tuesday into Wednesday, guidance agreement has increased and have increased Probability of Precipitation to likely for Tuesday into Tuesday night, with likelies continuing along the coast for Wednesday. The front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a pronounced mid-level shortwave. It should be noted the front is expected to stall with plenty of moisture (PWATS of 2+ inches) and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level vorticity riding along the boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are possible, although the question of where the front stalls remains unanswered. Behind the front highs will struggle to crack 90, and fall even further by the middle of the week
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 2pm Thurs... High confidence in VFR conditions will dominate the most of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop most to the west of the area, but is expected to move into inland TAF sites late afternoon/early evening. These storms may bring brief heavy rain which will result in reduced VSBY and ceiling heights. Tonight...mid to high clouds and light SW winds expected to limit fog development again tonight, but there is a chance for low stratus to develop, but confidence is low. Expect more showers/thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon with cloud deck aob 5kft and SW 5-10 knots
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 250pm Thursday...Typical summertime pattern this period with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland, with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. As ridge shifts farther offshore on Monday may see an uptick in convection. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday, helping to focus showers/thunderstorms along it as it crosses into Eastern NC through Tuesday. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible early each morning, especially any areas that receive rain
Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 330pm Thu...The latest buoy obs are showing SW winds 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and seas are 2-3 north of Oregon Inlet and 4-5 ft south. Expect southwesterly winds to continue with wind gusts reaching up to 30 kt late this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters and sounds south of Oregon Inlet, with the potential for occasional winds to 25 kt across the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds through late afternoon, but the duration too short to justify inclusion in the SCA. The SW gusty winds will gradually diminish overnight, but SW 15-20 knot will continue through Friday. Seas will gradually build to 4 to 6 ft tonight, and subside Friday morning to 3-5 ft.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 255pm Thursday...The pressure gradient will relax some Friday night through Sunday with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday into Monday night, increasing the pressure gradient across the waters with SW winds increase again to 15 to 25 kt Monday with seas 4-6 ft, highest for the central coastal waters. The front shifts closer to Eastern NC waters on Tuesday, shifting the strongest gradient farther offshore, allowing SW winds to diminish 10-20 kt and seas mostly 3-4 ft.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Heat Advisory until 7pm EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. Heat Advisory from 11am to 7pm EDT Friday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound).
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 6am EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.