Marine Weather Net

Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

WED

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

THU

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ152 Forecast Issued: 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt Late This Evening, Then Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Showers And Tstms Until Early Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late.
Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning.
Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Fri...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
Fri Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sat...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 4 Ft.
Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
SHARE THIS PAGE:           
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A slow moving cold front is forecast to cross the area tonight, and then stall off the NC coast through mid week before moving back onshore as a warm front Thursday into Friday. High pressure then builds back into the area next weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300pm EDT Tuesday Jun 22 2021

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front is forecast to cross the area tonight, and then stall off the NC coast through mid week before moving back onshore as a warm front Thursday into Friday. High pressure then builds back into the area next weekend.

Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 3pm Tue...Latest analysis shows cold front extending through the NE US down into SE VA/Central NC and into the GOM. The cold front will continue to slowly push eastward and through ENC tonight, pushing off the coast early Wednesday morning.

Radar shows shower and tstm coverage blossoming across the area this afternoon, trying to become more organized from SE VA down into the NC coastal plain (near region of better forcing and shear). Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for svr wx. Latest mesoanalysis shows meager instability over the area (ML CAPES around 1000 J/kg), modest shear (20-30 kt) and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 2.2 inches. Widespread cloud cover has limited destabilization today. Main concerns still look like isolated damaging wind gusts and localized heavy rain. Multi- cell clusters appear to be the most likely mode given the modest shear. Biggest concern will be the potential for localized flash flooding with PWATs (Precipitable Waters) well over 2". Although moisture is ample, forecast storm motions appear to be fast enough to preclude a region-wide flooding threat. However, urban areas and typically poor drainage areas will be prone to localized flooding with rain rates 1-2"/hr. Front will gradually push offshore late tonight with precipitation shifting towards the coast as drier air works in from the north. The front will eventually stall off the coast with the threat for a few coastal showers and storms through sunrise. With cooler air behind the front, lows will be able to dip into the 60s for most spots.

Short Term - Wednesday
As of 3pm Tue...High pressure will build in from the north as front lingers offshore and weak low pressure develops along it. Drier air will gradually filter in from the north with dewpoints falling into the 50s and low 60s. Isolated coastal showers possible in the morning with chances diminishing through the day. Low level thickness values and NE flow support below normal temps, with highs 75-80 deg.

Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
As of 245am Tues...A somewhat active weather pattern will continue this week and into the weekend. A stalled front offshore will bring chances for coastal showers Wednesday night and Thursday. More widespread activity is possible Thursday night and Friday as this boundary pushes inland. High pressure builds back closer to the region this weekend and into early next week, with more typical summertime scattered thunderstorm possible.

Wednesday night and Thursday...A stalled front will persist off the NC coast for this period, and the latest model trends show its location a bit farther offshore, meaning smaller rain chances for the area. As the trough moves closer Thursday, rain chances will increase along the coast and just inland, with the coastal plain remaining mostly dry.

High temps will be cooler with NE flow and lower low level heights. Have highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the Outer Banks to the low 80s across Duplin and Onslow counties.

Thursday Night and Friday...The weakening trough will pivot inland Thursday night and into Friday, leading to more widespread showers and thunderstorms both overnight and through Friday spreading inland over time. Temps Friday should remain mostly in the low 80s with decent cloud cover expected through the day.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure builds back into the area Saturday and through early next week, with a more typical summer pattern anticipated. Expect scattered nocturnal convection offshore and along the coast, with showers and thunderstorms transitioning inland during the day, leaving the coastal areas mostly dry. High temps will increase to around normal, with mid to upper 80s expected inland, and mostly mid 80s along the coast.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 3pm Tue...Latest obs show strong SW winds 20-30 kt across the waters with seas 4-7 ft north of Hatteras and 6-9 ft south. Combo of wind wave and swell energy with obs reporting long period swell 2-3 ft/17 sec. Moderate to strong SW winds will continue ahead of a cold front, with N/NE flow developing behind the front this evening and overnight. A few gusts to gale force possible south of Oregon Inlet through early this evening, but not long enough duration to warrant upgrade to gale warning. Front slowly crosses the waters late tonight with winds veering NE. Gusty NE winds 15-25 kt will continue across the waters Wednesday with high pressure building in and weak low developing on the stalled front offshore. Seas 4-7 ft through the day. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will continue for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 315am Tues...Winds and seas then slowly subside Wednesday night, and will become NE 10-20 kts, with seas 3-5 ft later Thursday. Winds will turn to the SE Thursday night at around 10 kts, continuing through Saturday. Seas Friday and Saturday will be mostly 2-4 ft.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for AMZ131- 135>137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for AMZ150.