Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|This Afternoon...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.|
|Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.|
|Mon...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...S Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Sw. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000am EDT Sat May 21 2022
Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue into the weekend with ridging aloft. A cold front will move into the area early next week bringing unsettled weather.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 10am Sat...No big changes with ongoing forecast. Sea stratus along Crystal Coast and OBX has since mixed out and dissipated. Main story cont to be hot and humid today, with iso/scattered storms developing this afternoon, mainly warning zones where better UVV exists.
Prev disc...As of 715am Saturday...Stratus and patchy fog continues along the coast and latest guidance holds onto it for a good portion of the day, though confidence is low that it will last that long. Abundant high clouds is making it difficult to assess the current areal extent of the stratus which is contributing to the low confidence level.
Surface high pressure remains centered offshore with upper ridging also extending into the area from offshore. The upper ridge axis will shift just offshore today with shortwave energy lifting north along the western periphery of the ridge which will aid in convective development later this afternoon. Bulk of the storms will be across the piedmont with the upper ridge continuing to bring subsidence across eastern portions of the FA but a few may move into western sections this afternoon. Good instability will be present with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg this afternoon but shear will be limited to around 20 kt or less. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts but a better chance for severe storms will be west of the FA. Temps will be hot once again though low level thicknesses will be slightly lower and expect highs to be a degree or two lower than yesterday. Highs expected in the mid 90s inland to 80s along the coast. Heat indices will also be a touch lower, mainly around 95-100 degrees.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 400am Saturday...Little change in the pattern tonight with high pressure centered offshore. Convection across the coastal plain will dissipate this evening with loss of surface heating but could see a few showers moving onshore into southern sections late tonight. Guidance is also suggesting that we could see stratus development along the coast overnight once again. Swly flow will keeps temps mild with lows around 70.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 3am Sat...Unsettled weather expected through the period with more seasonable temperatures. Front will push through the area Monday then linger just off the coast through mid week, with a stronger front expected to impact the area late week and early next weekend.
Sunday...Upper ridge continues to break down as cold front approaches from the west. Deeper moisture overspreads the area and combined with better forcing expect scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances along the coast early then shifting inland during the afternoon enhanced by the seabreeze. Cloud cover should limit destabilization slightly and little shear should limit any svr threat. Temps still above climo but a bit cooler than previous days with more cloud cover. Highs in the low to mid 80s for the beaches and 85-90 deg inland.
Monday through Saturday...Still looks unsettled through much of the period. Front is forecast to push into the area Monday with low pressure developing inland along it. Most guidance now pushes the front all the way through the area, then stalling offshore through Wednesday. This would keep the area on the cool side of the boundary with moist low level NE-E flow. Best precip chances still look like Monday afternoon and Monday night with potential for locally heavy rain. Precip becomes more scattered Tuesday through Thu, maybe even more isolated at times, likely enhanced during diurnal peak heating. Cloud cover, precipitation and NE-E flow will keep temps near or below normal with highs in the 70s/80s. Boundary will likely lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday and Wednesday night while complex low pressure strengthens over the Mid-West lifting towards the Great Lakes. The cold front associated with this system is currently forecast to push through the eastern NC late week/early next weekend. 00z GFS and EC are in pretty good agreement with frontal passage this far out in time. Capped probability of precipitation at high chance late week for now.
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 415am Saturday...High pressure remains centered offshore bringing SW winds across the waters through the short term. Winds continue around 10-20 kt early this morning but are expected to diminish to around 5-15 kt by daybreak. Gradients tighten again late afternoon with a strengthening thermal trough across the piedmont and expect winds to strengthen back to 10-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt possible. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft through the short term.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 3am Sat...Moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt continue Sun, strongest during the late afternoon and evening hours with potential for a few gusts to 25 kt, with seas generally 2-4 ft. Front will push into the waters Monday, then likely stall across the waters through mid week. NE winds 10-20 kt expected behind the front, though placement of boundary will make the wind forecast challenging. Stronger NE winds 15-25 kt may develop Tuesday and Tuesday night with waves developing along the front. Which would allow seas to build to 3-5 ft across the northern and central waters, possibly up to 6 ft. A period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be possible, with best chances across the northern waters/sounds and central waters early to mid next week.
Record High temps for 05/21
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1962 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 85/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 98/1964 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 98/1996 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/1962 (KNCA ASOS)
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories