Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne Around 10 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft.|
|Wed...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 625 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will continue to build in from the north through early this week. A cold front slowly moves through on Thursday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
632am EDT Sunday September 19 2021
High pressure will build in from the north through early this week. A cold front slowly moves through on Thursday with dry high pressure building in late in the week through the weekend.
Near Term - Today
As of 630am Sun...Latest analysis shows 1026mb high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region and southern Quebec. Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Mid-Atlantic and SE today as mid level ridging builds in from the west. Areas of fog and stratus ongoing this morning, with locally dense fog possible at times, mainly west of Hwy 17. Fog and stratus should dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning. Still looking at a mostly dry day, however could see isolated showers develop over the Albemarle Sound and adjacent areas late afternoon and early evening as a weak/dissipating front sags south into SE VA. Added a sc Probability of Precipitation mention, per agreement in most high res guidance, generally north of Hwy 264. Low level thickness values support temps near or slightly above climo today, with highs in the low/mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 3am Sun...High pressure will continue to build in from the north, making for another quiet night. Isolated showers still possible through early evening across the NW coastal plain with dissipating boundary over SE VA. Lows generally 65-70 deg. Patchy fog will be possible again Monday morning.
Long Term - Monday Through Saturday
As of 315am Sun...Dry weather to start the extended period with increasing rain chances by mid week with a strong but slow moving cold front. Above normal temps in the middle 80s through Wednesday, will cool back to near or even below seasonal norms by Thu through the weekend.
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly dry weather still expected during this time with weak ridging over our area. Slightly better chances for some scattered rain showers will occur Tuesday as a veering onshore flow moistens the atmosphere, and a coastal trough provides some lift. Summer will be holding on through the period with highs in the middle 80s by day and into the upper 60s to lower 70s by night with warm and humid pattern.
Wednesday through Thursday...Some model disagreements in the speed of the next cold front, but overall thinking has not changed with regard to the Wednesday and/or Thursday time period being our best chance for rain over the next 7 days. Have inc probability of precipitation through this period, with highest chances centered now on Wednesday night, then tapering off through the day Thu. Latest trends with 19/00Z ECM/CMC indicate a slower soln, which may have heaviest rain centered early Thursday, and have inc probability of precipitation a bit into first part of Thu to account for the slower trend. The reason being is the trough deepens over the OH/MS Valleys, which slows progression of the upper low and attendant cold front, finally passing through ENC by late Thu. Periods of heavy rain possible as PW's surge to 2+ inches with deep southerly flow.
Friday through Saturday...Cooler and drier air mass builds in with high pressure oozing into the eastern CONUS. Hts near climo or slightly below will lead to slightly lower than average temps with highs generally around 80 and lows in the mid 50s interior to mid 60s beaches.
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 630am Sun...Latest obs NW-NE winds 5-10 kt, with seas 3-5 ft north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. High pressure will continue to build in from the north today and tonight. Flow becomes more NW/NE this morning, then continues to veer through the day becoming NE-E 10-15 kt. ENE-NE winds 10-15 kt continue overnight. Seas subsiding to 2-4 ft late this morning and afternoon.
Long Term - Monday Through Thursday
As of 315am Sun...Fairly quiet and consistent conditions expected on the waters through the period, with mainly easterly component to the wind through the Tue.
Winds veer serly Wednesday ahead of a strong and slowly approaching cold front, then southerly on early Thu just ahead of the front, becoming nwrly behind the front later Thu. Marginal SCA conditions may develop later Wednesday into Thu as winds veer to the south and inc to 15-20 kt with some higher gusts.
While beyond our marine forecast period, it should be noted that we may begin to see distant swells and higher seas after Thu with the possibility of a distant tropical system.
As of 3am Sun...KMHX radar is down until further notice. Repair is scheduled for today, and hope to have it back online by late this afternoon or early evening.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.