Marine Weather Net

Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
25
KNOTS

TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

WED

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ152 Forecast Issued: 317 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Today...Nw Winds Around 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late This Morning, Then Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt Early This Afternoon, Becoming W Late. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Wed...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds.
Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Fri...E Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Se In The Evening, Then Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Rain Likely.
Sat...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming N In The Evening, Then Increasing To Around 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 9 To 12 Ft, Building To 9 To 13 Ft. Rain Likely. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
427am EDT Tuesday Mar 19 2024

Synopsis
Cool high pressure remains in control through Wednesday, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend.

Near Term - Today
As of 0400 Tuesday...Showers/Virga associated with passing of upper trough axis currently confined to Hatt and offshore will continue to push Eward through the early morning hours with skies rapidly clearing W to E as high pressure builds over the FA from the W. Stiff winds in place presently with Nerly surge of Cold Air Advection winds will relax some starting with sunrise as the jets embedded in the trough aloft push offshore through the morning, backing to become Werly by this afternoon. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for all of Mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section below for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s, low 50s OBX.

Short Term - Tonight
As of 0400 Tuesday...Quiet night on tap with high pressure continuing to build over the FA and flow aloft becoming more zonal briefly with base of the upper level trough over ECONUS broadening as one shortwave exits the region to the NE and another digging down the Wern half of the trough toward the Great Lakes. A light SWerly breeze through the overnight will keep WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) in place which will lead to warmer MinTs than MON night despite the clear skies and high pressure nearby. MinTs low 40s away from immediate coast, mid 40s to low 50s beaches.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Monday
As of 250am Tue...High pressure remains in place Wednesday. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend, bringing the potential for multiple impacts to the area, which could linger into early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS with high pressure remaining in control through Wednesday. A dry cold front is forecast to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs climbing back to 65-70 deg with sunny skies. Then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible.

Friday through Monday
A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to spread in the guidance and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. The GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to be the more progressive solution, while the 00z EC and CMC show a slower, stronger surface low that lingers/stalls near or just off the coast into Monday while merging with cut off upper low. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, prolonged period of strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding section below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Continued to increase probability of precipitation and winds slightly from the previous forecast. At this time best rain chances will be Friday night into Saturday...with winds peaking Saturday night into Sunday night. Impacts along the coast could linger into Monday. Will continue to fine tune specifics over the next few days.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Tues Night/... As of 0415 Tuesday...Gusty N-NWerly winds early as axis of shortwave in upper trough passes departs. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. An SCA (Small Craft Advisory) is in place for all waters through the day, however there will be a period of sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions this afternoon as high pressure builds in, relaxing winds while backing to become Werly 10-15kt this afternoon. Conditions deteriorate again this evening and tonight as winds continue to veer to become SWerly 15-20G25kt by 2000edt, SWerly 20-25G30kt by midnight local. Seas are currently 4-7ft forecast to subside to 2-5ft by this afternoon, increasing again overnight with the strengthening winds to 4-7ft.

Long Term - Wednesday Through Saturday
As of 250am Tue...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front, with seas 3-6 ft. Will continue with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters through Wednesday eve/night. A dry front will move through the waters late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible in the post frontal flow for a few hours Thursday morning. Flow will gradient veer Thu night becoming E 10-15 kt, then increasing to 15-25 kt Friday, as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will build to 4-6 ft by Friday afternoon with increasing onshore flow.

Very dangerous marine conditions expected to develop across the waters this weekend, then likely lingering into early next week, as a strong low pressure system impacts the waters. A prolonged period of gale force winds expected, with potential for storm force winds. Winds expected to peak Saturday night into Sunday night. Seas will peak at 10-15+ ft.

Fire Weather
As of 250am Tue...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS continues for today. The day shift will reassess the need for another IFD SPS WED,

Today - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland, 25-30% coast, and breezy NWerly winds early becoming Werly 10-15mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wednesday - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-15 mph.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 250am Tue...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and this the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and beach erosion. Impacts may begin as early as Friday night, then peaking Saturday and Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Breezy SE winds expected Friday night, becoming northerly by Sat night. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-136- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154- 156-158.