Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 14 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 13 Seconds. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 3 Ft At 12 Seconds. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 6 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And Nw 3 Ft At 3 Seconds. |
| Tue...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: N 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Tue Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds Around 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Wed Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Thu Night...N Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 128am EDT Sunday Oct 13 2024 Synopsis Cool and dry high pressure will migrate southward and weaken today as a cold front approaches the region early next week. A second high pressure system then builds over the Eastern Seaboard midweek next week. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning As of 1010pm Sat...No changes needed with late eve update. Prev disc... As of 630pm Sat...Only chg was to lower min T's some 2-5 degrees, esp near the coast on the mainland, where models always too high in good radiational regime. Based lows off of afternoon TD's, which were only in the 45-50 degree range for most. Prev disc... As of 1515 Saturday...Benign weather pattern in place to start the weekend for ENC. Aloft, region sits in an area of weak flow as jet split in between two streams around the southeastern CONUS while at the surface sprawling high pressure lingers over the same area. Strong but moisture- starved, E-W cold front sits just S of the Great Lakes this afternoon and will be gradually making its way southward over the next couple of days. Generally unremarkable weather expected tonight as the surface high weakens and shifts southward ahead of the approaching front. The only impacts from this will be a modest shift in the winds from westerly to southwesterly, but still remaining at under 10 mph as front remains well displaced to the north. The SW flow will help boost low-level thicknesses and temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid to upper 70s - near to slightly above average for mid-October. Skies remain clear in a very dry airmass. Apart from a few passing high clouds, another night of clear skies and calm winds point to another radiational cooling regime with forecast lows on the lowest end of the guidance envelope. Temperatures will be a bit higher than this morning thanks to higher low-level thicknesses, but Tds will remain low as dry airmass moves little. Forecast lows are in the low 50s, but in well sheltered areas temperatures could approach the upper 40s. Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Monday As of 1515 Saturday...SFC high centered off the coast to the SE early will continue to push further offshore. Aloft, Nern stream troughing digs toward the Mid- Atlantic coast, absorbing the weaker Sern stream shortwave leading to broad troughing directly overhead. Low pressure spurred by the digging trough aloft travels Eward along the front over NECONUS, reaching the New England coast late SUN afternoon, nudges the front S ward late in the period. SWerly WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) through the entire column out ahead of the front further increases low level thicknesses supporting climbing highs, MaxTs around 80 with a warm breeze in the afternoon. Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday As of 3pm Sat...Overall a dry week is forecast across ENC. High pressure centered off the coast will slowly push further into the Atlantic on Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will track across the region on Monday eventually pushing offshore Monday night. But, with little in the way of moisture associated with this frontal passage, not expecting any precipitation with it. Behind this front a second ridge of high pressure will build in from the north and west and eventually become centered over the area by the end of the week. Sunday Night and Monday...High pressure will continue to push further into the Atlantic as shortwave rounds the base of the upper level trough digging into the Eastern Seaboard Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure in the Ohio River Valley will be tracking E'wards and deepening as it tracks into the Interior Northeast nearing the Gulf of Maine by Monday morning. Associated cold front will quickly push SE'wards eventually nearing the Triad region Monday morning and pushing off the Carolina Coast Monday night. This front will not be accompanied by much moisture which is supported by 00Z GFS/ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble guidance so outside of some cloud cover and a shift in wind direction, precipitation is not forecast. Out ahead of the front SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will support highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday while lows Sunday night get into the 60s across ENC. The biggest change will be the shift in winds to a NW'rly direction Monday evening and much cooler temps Monday night as lows get into the upper 40s to 50s across ENC. Tuesday through Friday...Much cooler and drier air sweeps in behind the cold front from Tuesday on into the end of the week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest and strong troughing lingers aloft - up to 2-3 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology. Tues and Wednesday will be the coolest days, averaging around 10-15 degrees below normal as highs struggle to climb out of the low 60s and lows fall well into the 40s. With Tds in the 30s and a favorable set up for radiational cooling, would not be surprised to see some overnight lows in the upper 30s. If this is realized, some low temperature records for Wednesday and Thuram will be threatened. As we get into Fri upper level ridging finally begins to build into the area allowing temps to warm and return closer to normal. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 1515 Saturday...Boating conditions continue to improve as high pressure remains in control over much of the southeastern CONUS. Regional observations show generally W-SWerly winds at 5-15kt over area waters, while offshore seas sit at 2-4 feet. Some longer period pockets of swell, up to 15 seconds at times, have been sneaking in from the E and are associated with the remnants of Milton as it continues to push well into the open Atlantic. Surface high will migrate southward tonight as a cold front, currently draped just S of the Great Lakes, drifts towards the area. SWerly winds persist at this level into the morning. Consequently, seas will likely hold steady at 2-4 feet through the short term period with longer period swell pockets continuing to drift onshore at 15-16 seconds. LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... As of 315pm Sat...SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been issued for all coastal waters, Nern Rivers and Sounds, and the Pamlico Sound for prefrontal SWerly winds 15-25G30kt starting Sunday afternoon through Monday. Previous Disco...The main feature in the long term will be the passage of a dry cold front on Mon. Out ahead of this front SW'rly winds will increase from 10-20 kts Sunday morning to 15-25 kts with gusts up around 25-30 kts across just about all of our waters outside of the inland rivers Sunday evening bringing an increasing threat to see SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions. These elevated SW'rly winds then persist into Monday morning across all waters. In response to the increasing SW'rly flow seas will build from 2-4 ft Sunday morning to 4-6 ft Monday morning across our coastal waters. Aforementioned cold front will then track across the region Monday evening shifting the winds to a NW'rly direction from N to S at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25 kts. These N'rly winds will change little through Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens between an approaching high pressure ridge from the west and the departing front to the east. Seas will remain around 4-6 ft through Tuesday morning before lowering slightly to 3-5 ft Tuesday into Wed. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 11pm EDT Monday for AMZ131-135-152-154-156-158-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm this evening to 11pm EDT Monday for AMZ150. |
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