Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers.|
|Tue...N Winds 25 To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Building To 9 To 12 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Tue Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 10 To 13 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Wed...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 8 To 11 Ft.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731am EDT Monday Mar 25 2019
Synopsis: Low pressure and its associated cold front will approach from the west today and cross the area tonight. Strong high pressure will build in from the north Tuesday through Thursday then slide offshore Friday and Saturday. The next front will impact the region Sunday into Monday.
Near Term - Through Today
As of 7am Mon...12z KMHX sounding reveals the expected very dry air in the mid levels above about 750 mb. Shower activity will remain suppressed until this layer moistens, which should happen around midday. With widespread cirrus visible on satellite and light to moderate south- southwesterly flow indicated on surface obs, the previous forecast remains on track.
Today...High pressure off the coast and a frontal system approaching from the west will combine to bring southwesterly flow and increasing low level moisture to the area through the day. In the mid levels, flow will gradually back from west to southwest, eliminating the downsloping component, and allowing for column destabilization to begin. Only cirrus coverage will prevail in the morning, with mid and low clouds beginning to develop by midday. Hi-res guidance is indicating that isolated to scattered shower activity could break out as early as midday, but the realized timing of the initiation of showers will depend on the moistening of the mid levels. Additionally, several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE will develop this afternoon, making some lightning activity possible in the strongest showers/storms. Despite the cloud cover, pre-frontal compression and increasing warm air advection will allow temps to climb into the mid 70s for most locations away from the beaches this afternoon
.SHORT TERM / TONIGHT/... As of 330am Mon...Deep moisture will arrive this evening as prefrontal moisture convergence increases ahead of an approaching cold front and PVA is maximized as a H5 shortwave crosses the Carolinas. Current expectation is that the shower activity from the afternoon will persist into the early evening before more more widespread rainfall associated with destabilization in proximity to the approaching complex low overspreads the area late. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but expect mainly light to moderate rainfall with accumulations of one quarter to three quarters of an inch.
The system will slide off the coast early Tuesday morning, with dry air quickly filling in behind it. Some showers may linger through sunrise mainly along the coast, but the bigger story is the strong east to northeast winds that will develop during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday as high pressure builds inland. Winds will increase rapidly early Tuesday, with gusts of 45 MPH or higher possible along the Outer Banks, and gusty winds expected across the entire area by daybreak
Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
As of 300am Mon...Rain ends Tuesday with gusty NNE winds and cool temps Tuesday through mid week. High pressure builds across late week with dry weather and warming temps. Next front will impact region late next weekend.
Tuesday through Wed...Low pressure moving offshore combined with strong high pressure building in from the N will lead to strong NNE winds this period espcly coast. Sct to numerous rain shower mainly near cst early Tuesday will move offshore by mid day Tue. Dry weather then expected thru Wednesday with cool temps with the gusty NNE winds. Highs will be mainly in the 50s with northern tier possible holding in the upper 40s. Lows Tuesday night will be cold with possible low/mid 30s inland but decent breeze should limit threat for frost. Have issued a wind advisory for OBX that will cont most of Tuesday night for winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts 40 to 50 mph. See Tides/Coastal Flood section below for details on possible minor coastal flooding and high surf.
Wednesday night through Saturday...High pressure will begin to build in more earnestly thru Thu then slide offshore late week. Gusty coastal winds will diminish, and dry weather will continue. Temps may be close to freezing again for lows Thur morning, then moderate into the 60s by afternoon. Building hts/thicknesses will lead to temps rising to above climo by Friday into Saturday with lower 70s Fri and mid/upper 70s Sat inland.
Sunday...While quite a ways out still, cont a 20% chance rain for Sunday, when next cold front could impact E NC. As expected this far out, there is quite a bit of spread amongst model ensemble solutions, so timing is subject to change. still mild Sunday with highs low/mid 70s inland to 60s beaches.
Short Term - Through Tonight: As of 330am Mon...A storm system approaching from the west will keep moderate south to southwest winds in place today. The system will them move over the waters overnight, leading to a period of more variable winds and widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight, before passing offshore very late tonight.
Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly early Tuesday morning as gusty northeast winds develop behind the departing storm system. Winds across marine areas are expected to increase from around 10 kt to over 35 kt within only a couple of hours, between about 6Z and 12Z. Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning to account for these winds, with strong Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the inland rivers.
Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft today through the overnight hours. Seas will begin to increase rapidly, especially north of Cape Hatteras, as winds come up early Tuesday morning.
Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 300am Mon...Gale warning Tuesday into Tuesday night for all wtrs except inland rivers where Small Craft Advisory expected. Tight grdnt between departing low pressure and strong high to the N will lead to NNE winds 25 to 40 kts Tuesday into Tuesday night that will slowly subside Wednesday into Thu reaching 15 kts by Thu evening. NE winds become light Fri as high pressure builds across then as the high moves offshore Sat winds will become SSW 10 to 15 kts.
Dangerous seas of 8 to 16 feet expected by later Tuesday that will only slowly subside to 7 to 13 feet Wednesday and reach 5 to 8 feet late Thu. As winds become light Fri seas will subside to 4 to 6 feet, then finally drop below Small Craft Advisory levels all waters Sat reaching 2 to 4 feet late
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 300am Mon...The strong NNE winds Tuesday will lead to very rough surf and possible some minor coastal flooding that will cont into mid week. The greatest threat for minor coastal flooding exists for areas along the southern Pamlico Sound later Tuesday into Wednesday. The area of greatest concern is Downeast Carteret County, where inundation of up to 2 feet for very low lying areas is possible. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed for this area.
Additionally, very rough surf will develop for the beaches from Cape lookout N...espcly for the OBX N of Cape Hatteras and High Surf Advisories will likely needed as well
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Wind Advisory from 6am Tuesday to 2am EDT Wednesday for NCZ103-104.
Small Craft Advisory from 6am Tuesday to 5pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 5am Tuesday to 7am EDT Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound).
Gale Warning from 5am Tuesday to midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ130-131.
Gale Warning from 5am Tuesday to 2pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
Gale Warning from 6am Tuesday to 6pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
Gale Warning from 5am Tuesday to 5am EDT Wednesday for AMZ150