Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.|
|Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas Around 3 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue Night...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Wed Night...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Thu...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 140 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A slow moving cold front will approach the area early this week and move through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Cooler high pressure expected to build over the area late week and next weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
157am EDT Monday September 28 2020
Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight into Monday. A slow moving cold front will approach the area early this week and move through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Cooler high pressure expected to build over the area late week and next weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 145am Mon...DPVA associated with shortwave aloft bringing broad lift as it crosses the area early this morning, but drier low levels continue as local high pressure remains in control. No changes with the early morning update as band of very light precipitation (mainly sprinkles) works across the area. This rain is falling from mid levels with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounting to little more than one to two hundreths of an inch, so have kept POPs low end chance to slight chance overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s with limited fog potential overnight mainly for the inner Coastal Plain.
Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 305pm Sunday...Could see some light showers Monday morning, then in the afternoon a tongue of moisture is forecast to move north into the area as the mid level trough approaches and coupled with a diurnal heating should result in scattered showers developing primarily over the southwest zones. Otherwise, expect a mix of sunshine and clouds and warm.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Sunday
As of 330am Sun...Unsettled with temps near or slightly above climo through mid next week, then cooler and drier late next week.
Monday night through Wednesday...The upper flow is forecast to become more amplified next week with an Eastern upper trough deepening across the MS River Valley. The leading edge of the trough will be associated with a strong surface cold front which will move slowly across the Mid- Atlantic, producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Models continue to converge into better agreement with the synoptic pattern and timing of the surface features. Complex pattern expected, as cut off low develops at the base of digging trough over the TN Valley and then pivoting through the southeastern states. This feature will move through the SE US Wednesday inducing surface cyclogenesis along the front in the Carolinas, then becoming vert stacked as it lifts up the Mid- Atlantic and NE coast Thu. A variety of weather impacts possible with this scenario, including heavy rain with localized flooding, and a potential severe weather threat. Details on mesoscale features have yet to be worked out, with ECM soln indicating heaviest axis of rain across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, while the GFS brings heaviest precipitation shield through E NC with at least several inches of storm total rainfall. Nevertheless, enough model agreement amongst global models, as well as their respective ensembles, to raise probability of precipitation to 60-70% for the period later Monday night through early Wed. Temps will be warm and humid this period with highs in the lower 80s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Thursday through Saturday...Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front late week into next weekend with troughing aloft and surface high building in. Highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s this period.
Short Term /through Monday/... As of 920pm Sunday...No changes with good boating conditions this period with light winds and seas mainly 2 to 3 ft.
Prev disc...High pressure will continue over the waters through Monday producing light winds. Southerly winds 5-10 tonight will be around 10 kt Monday with 2-3 ft seas through the period. Not expecting widespread dense fog overnight as increasing clouds should inhibit its development though the northern waters would have the best chance since clouds will be slow to move in there overnight.
Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 330am Sun...A cold front will slowly approach the waters Tue, likely not pushing through until mid week. S/SW 10-20 kt Tuesday increasing to 15-25 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday night with higher gusts. Confidence is increasing that waters will see a period of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions beginning Tuesday as seas respond by building 6+ ft. Conditions will begin to improve on Thu as winds become wrly and diminish, with high seas following suit.
As of 155am Mon...Planned NWS-wide maintenance will occur from 06Z to 09Z this morning, with some products and data unavailable during this outage. forecast updates will resume when the maintenance has concluded.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories