Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
10 - 15
15 - 20
15 - 20
10 - 15
15 - 20
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt Late. A Few Gusts Up To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy Late. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With A Few Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Evening. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu...N Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.|
|Fri Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316pm EDT Tuesday May 30 2023
Inland ridging and coastal troughing develops through mid-week, persisting through late week. A weak front with offshore low pressure development may move through the area this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
As of 300pm Tue...A backdoor front moving across our area now will continue to produced an enhanced chance for showers through early evening. Showers from Washington, and New Bern south and west, will gradually diminish from the northeast and eventually dissipate by 02Z. The rest of the overnight will be dry for most of the area, but an area of low pressure east of Cape Hatteras, will rotate more isolated showers back toward the coast, especially the northern Outer Banks, for the rest of the overnight. Behind this front, low clouds will overspread the entire area tonight. For now it still appears that enough wind in the boundary layer will be present to keep fog from being a widespread issue.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through 6pm Wednesday
As of 300pm Tue...With high pressure to our north, and weak low pressure off the coast, persistent northeast winds will keep moisture in our area (low clouds), along with the threat for a few isolated showers throughout the day. Highest rain chances will be toward the Outer Banks. Plenty of moisture trapped underneath an inversion around 5,000 feet, will keep most of our area draped in clouds through midday. Toward 18Z we will break the inversion and should start to see at least some brightening skies, after a grey start.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
As of 330am Tue...Weak low pressure will linger offshore mid week, then a return to more typical summer weather occurs mid to late week though a lack of instability will mean minimal thunder chances. Low pressure may gather off the SE US coast by the weekend.
Wednesday...With mid level blocking, upper troughing looks to persist into mid week, though the surface reflection will be quite weak and thus only slight shower chances for most areas. No thunder as instability will be lacking given the deep layer nerly flow. Temps near average with highs around 80 and lows in the low/mid 60s.
Thursday through Friday...Upper low will continue to meander off the Mid Atlantic coast, though in a weakening state, therefore only a 20% Probability of Precipitation this period at best. Cont no thunder mention as weak surface reflection off the coast will bring cont broad nerly flow, not conducive for thunder development.
Saturday through Monday...There may be a slightly better chance for some showers as next low pressure development potentially takes shape off the SE coast, though timing and details with the pattern have yet to be fine-tuned, so only 20-30% probability of precipitation for the weekend period with high uncertainty. Temps should cont around avg with highs in the low 80s (70s beaches) and lows in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Evening/... As of 315pm Tue...A backdoor front will move south of the waters by this evening, which will allow a surge of stronger northerly winds to move over the waters. Confidence in this surge is medium, with a split in model guidance. Leaning toward the higher resolution guidance with obs toward the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, showing a rise in winds and sea heights. With that in mind, going SCA (Small Craft Advisory) looks good from Hatteras Inlet northward overnight through Wednesday. Expanded the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to include the Pamlico, Albemarle, Roanoke/Croatan sounds. While marginal here, leaning toward the stronger wind guidance suggested by the higher resolution models. Seas are already running 4 to 5 feet, with 6 footers likely by late evening, lasting through Wednesday.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 330am Tue....Winds diminish and seas subside by late Wed night and Thu. Another round of gusty winds and building seas by the weekend as low pressure organizes off the SE US coast.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 8pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 6am to 6pm EDT Wednesday for AMZ230-231.