Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. A Slight Chance Of Showers Early This Evening. A Slight Chance Of Rain Late.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough In The Afternoon. Rain.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Building To 9 To 12 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Extremely Rough. Rain.|
|Fri...N Winds 30 To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 25 To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 9 To 12 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Extremely Rough, Diminishing To Very Rough In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 8 To 11 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Sun...Ne Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers Likely.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
700pm EST Wednesday Feb 19 2020
Strong cold high pressure will build into from the north as low pressure develops and moves well offshore Thursday into Friday. Cold high pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend, before another area of low pressure impacts the area early next week.
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... As of 7pm Wed...No changes needed with earlypm update.
Prev As of 245pm Wednesday...Spotty showers continue across the CWA, with better coverage over northern counties at mid-afternoon. Have adjusted Probability of Precipitation a little to carry a slight chance further north through 00Z. Latest HRRR/NAM3km indicate the rain tapering after 00z with a mostly dry, but cloudy night. Lows will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s for most areas, except mid 40s Outer Banks. Gusty N/NNE winds will persist making it feel colder.
Short Term - Thursday
As of 250pm Wednesday...The calm before the storm on Thursday. Low pressure develops off the northeast Florida coast and moves offshore well to our SE while strengthening Thursday. NAM3km/HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) shows light rain returning to the CWA by mid-morning Thursday with steady light rain continuing through the daylight hours. Top- down ensemble precipitation type tool indicates that ptype should remain liquid through 00z and surface temperatures remain at 36 degrees or higher over the northwestern corner of the CWA and closer to 40 degrees elsewhere. Highs will likely occur around midday with slowly falling afternoon temperatures. N/NE winds will remain gusty on Thursday.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 330pm Wed...Confidence continues to increase in some winter- weather threat across eastern NC Thursday night into Friday morning, and although some uncertainty remains in regards to extent and accumulations confidence here has also increased.
Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave digging across the eastern US will continue to deepen low pressure embedded within a stalled front off the Southeast coast Thursday night. Isentropic upglide on the north side of the front will continue to prompt a precipitation shield across eastern NC, with low level Cold Air Advection strengthening after sunset. The temp profile will become more uniformly below freezing, signifying the changeover from rain to snow, from northwest to southeast through the night. The progression of this rain/snow line remains uncertain, as there are still several outliers in the longer-to- medium-range guidance, and the strength of the CAA/speed of the transition to snow will be dependent on the trajectory and strength of the low level flow.
Generally went with a consensus of guidance, with the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and UKMET generally agreeing on 2-4 inches of snowfall across inland areas north of the Neuse river, tapering toward no accumulation along the coast. However, residual heat in the ground will delay accumulation a bit from when snowfall begins, so have opted for a most likely 2-3 inches inland. The NAM is the clear outlier in the guidance, with a stronger low tracking closer to the gulf stream resulting in great Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and more efficient Cold Air Advection - a solution which has been given very little weight in the forecast. Some guidance continues to indicate potential for some heavy mesoscale banding setting up for a time, as DGZ is collocated with highest Omega/UVV. Where and if this occurs remains very uncertain, but the corridor from New Bern to Kinston to Greenville is currently shows the greatest potential. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas roughly along and north of the Neuse River, with a Winter Storm Advisory elsewhere
As the low moves off the coast, strong north to northeasterly winds will develop, especially along the Outer Banks, and a Wind Advisory may be needed for Friday morning. As such, coastal flooding will be a concern for southern parts of the Pamlico Sound and adjacent Neuse River and tributaries - see the COASTAL FLOODING section for more details.
The system will quickly depart by daybreak, and any precipitation will quickly exit. It will be cold in the morning, with sub freezing temps expected inland. Icy roads will be a possibility Friday morning with treacherous travel conditions. A blustery day despite a return to sunshine, with highs only in the mid/upper 30s most locales.
Friday Night through Sunday...Friday night will be quite cold with arctic high pressure settling in with clr skies and calm/light winds. Any moisture/slush remaining on the roadways will freeze away from the beaches with lows expected well down into the 20s inland with low 30s near the coast.
High pressure passes overhead over the weekend, bringing mainly dry weather and moderating temps through Sunday.
Sunday night through Wednesday...Another system is expected to approach the Carolinas Sunday night or Monday as an upper trough digs into the central plains. A generally unsettled and warm period is expected to start next week.
Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/... As of 255pm Wednesday...Strong high pressure building behind cold front that moved offshore later tonight will lead to continued gusty N/NE winds tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15-25 knots with gusts up to 30 kts will be likely with seas up to 8 feet overnight and Thursday. No changes to current advisories, but Gale Watch may be need to be upgraded to Gale Warning later tonight.
Long Term /Thursday Night through Mon/... As of 4pm Wed...Gales and very dangerous seas (10-16+ ft) prevail Thursday night and Friday across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Winds will weaken below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) overnight Friday although seas are expected to subside far slower, getting below 6 feet by Sunday. High pressure moves overhead Sunday, bringing light winds before the high slides offshore and southerly flow prevail early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4pm Wed...Minor water level rises expected for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, today with strong NNE surge. However not expecting any sig flooding issues at this time.
NNE gale force winds are looking more likely Thursday night into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts east to northeastward off the Carolina coast. There is potential for minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, Thursday night and Friday. Minor inundation 1-2 ft (agl) will be possible, and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7pm Thursday to 7am EST Friday for NCZ047-090-092-094-194>196-198-199. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>046-079>081-091-193.
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Friday for AMZ131-136-137- 230-231. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Thursday for AMZ150. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.