Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Morning.|
|Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sun Night...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Increasing To Very Rough After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Building To 9 To 12 Ft In The Afternoon. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.|
|Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 6 To 9 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.|
|Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 923 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will pass north of the waters this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure will build over the waters Tuesday through Thursday.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
932am EST Sat Nov 28 2020
High pressure will pass to the north this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure will build over the area Tuesday through Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 930am Sat...Biggest change with the near term forecast was to increase Probability of Precipitation for southwestern and western zones due to light rain/sprinkles approaching from the west/I-95 corridor. These light showers are ahead of the main shortwave trough aloft, and should push east off the NC coast by early afternoon with high pressure building in from the northwest by late afternoon. Fog/low stratus continues this morning, mainly for southern zones and near the coast. Mild weather will continue though lowering low level heigheights (with upper trough passing to the north) will keep temps mostly in the low to mid 60s, warmest south of HWY 70.
Short Term - Sunday
As of 635am Sat...High pressure will continue its influence over the area tonight, with its center moving over VA. Mostly clear and calm conditions are expected, although a decent breeze will continue along the immediate coast. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow temps to drop sharply this evening into the 40s, and then continue to slowly fall into the upper 30s by morning. Along the coast, persistent wind will keep readings in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 5am Sat...A strong cold front will impact the area Sunday night and Monday. Behind the front, a much colder airmass will take hold midweek. Another strong system will impact the area late week into the first part of next weekend.
Sunday...High pressure builds in from the west to provide seasonable weather for the weekend. Winds turn more easterly Sunday as the surface ridge begins to move off the Mid-Atlantic coast, keeping afternoon temps limited to the low-to-mid 60s.
Sunday night through Monday...A vigorous mid-level trough will dig across the central US, developing a strong mid-latitude cyclone over the Southeastern US that will march towards the Northeast before becoming cut-off around the US/Canadian border. Allowing the strong associated cold front to push through ENC late Monday and Monday night. Storm Prediction Center continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for svr tstms. Instability still looks to be the limiting factor but given the strong shear expected (0-6 km 50+ kt) and low level helicity, there will be a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado late Sunday night through the first part of Monday. Latest guidance shows PWAT (Precipitable Water) values peaking at 1.5+", exceeding the daily climo max. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late Sunday night through the first part of Monday, with qpf forecast totals ranging from 0.75-2". Precip will taper off from west to east Monday afternoon. The cold front will push offshore overnight Monday, taking the precipitation with it, and ushering much colder air in its wake. Non-diurnal temp curve expected Sunday night with temps and dewpoints gradually warming with increased warm air advection.
Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure will slowly build across the southern US behind the cold front, featuring mostly dry weather and temps several deg below normal. A much colder airmass will filter into the area Monday night and linger through mid week. 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C below normal. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to low-50s, warming into the mid-upper 50s Thu. Overnight lows will drop to or below freezing for most inland locations Wednesday and Thu mornings.
Friday and Saturday...Still pretty far out in the period, but models in fairly good agreement showing another strong low pressure system impacting the region late week into the first part of next weekend.
Short Term /Through Sunday Morning/... As of 925am Sat...Latest surface and buoy data indicate NW winds 5-10 knots across the Sounds and coastal waters, with medium period seas 2-3 ft across the coastal waters. Decent boating conditions expected today as a weak boundary shifts off the coast by late afternoon and high pressure builds south over the NC waters through tonight. Winds will be NW 5-15 kts, and seas 2-4 ft the rest of today. Tonight, the gradient will tighten slightly and winds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts, and seas 3-5 ft.
Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 3am Sat...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Mon and Tue. Still looks like decent boating conditions Sun, with NE winds 5-15 kt gradually veering and becoming ESE through the day with seas 2-4 ft. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sunday night into Monday as strong S/SW winds develop ahead of a strong front. Gale Force winds 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt looking more likely Monday into Monday night, with seas peaking at 9-13 ft. Showers and tstms also likely Sunday night into Mon. The front will push through the waters late Monday and Monday night. Winds become W 20-25 kt Tuesday with seas subsiding to 5-9 ft. W winds 15-20 kt Wednesday morning diminishing to 10-15 kt late, with seas 3-5 ft.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 3am Sat...Strong S/SW winds will develop ahead of a cold front Monday, which could result in minor coastal flooding and rough surf. Right now best chances for minor coastal flooding look like areas on the sound side Outer Banks north of Buxton.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories