Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

E
WINDS
5 KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI

SW
WINDS
15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 1023 PM EST Wed Feb 08 2023

Overnight...E Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat.
Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Fri...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Increasing To Rough After Midnight. Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Sat...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Showers.
Sat Night...Ne Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming E 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Rough After Midnight. Showers.
Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Increasing To Rough. Showers Likely In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers.
Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Light Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141am EST Thu Feb 9 2023

Synopsis
A dry backdoor cold front sags south through the area through this evening before stalling over the central portion of the region tonight. The same front lifts north as a warm front Thursday. A strong cold front will cross the region late Friday or Saturday, and a coastal low may develop offshore over the weekend. High pressure then builds back in by early next week.

Near Term - Until 6am This Morning
As of 10pm Wed...Mostly quiet conditions will continue with high pressure off the SE coast. A weak backdoor cold front continues to sink southward into the area from the NE, and will likely stall somewhere near the Neuse River later tonight. With little to no moisture associated with this front it is little more than a wind shift, and overnight may become a focus for fog and low stratus development. Mostly clear skies aside from thin cirrus will continue overnight, and relatively light winds will allow for good radiational cooling conditions, though temps will not be as cool as previous nigheights due to the increase in dewpoints. Expect lows to mostly be in the mid 40s, though some sheltered locations could drop into the low 40s.

As noted above there is potential for areas of fog and low stratus to develop along this stalled front which will be over the southern Inner Banks and as far south as Carteret County. The most dense fog will likely remain along this boundary, eventually spreading up into Beaufort and possibly Pitt counties, but with good radiational cooling elsewhere, patchy fog is possible at other inland locations.

Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Friday
As of 210pm Wednesday...The stalled boundary becomes weak/diffuse early Thu then moves north as a warm front with southerly flow developing across the area. Deeper moisture/widespread cloud cover should hold off until late in the day allowing the southerly flow in combination with insolation to result in warm temps with highs inland reaching into the low to mid 70s. Showers are expected to develop over the near shore waters in the afternoon but are expected to remain offshore through the day and will continue with a dry forecast.

Long Term - Friday Night Through Wednesday
As of 245am Wednesday... BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: There are some noteworthy forecast changes in the "Long Term" period. First, the risk of severe thunderstorms continues to trend down Friday into Saturday. Rainfall amounts, however, are trending higher, so there still could be some minor/nuisance ponding of water issues over the weekend. Most notable is the trend towards a stronger storm system over the weekend, which opens up the door to multiple hazards (potentially to include strong winds and coastal impacts).

FORECAST DETAILS: Record warm lows are likely Thursday night, with lows sitting around 60. This is a good 20-25 degrees above normal for early February, and could break daily records dating back to the 1950s. With all this in mind, I went above blended guidance, and continued to stick closer to the 75th percentile of available guidance.

Moisture transport really begins to ramp up Thursday night into Friday, pulling anomalously high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) north into the eastern Carolinas. This will occur in tandem with a more focused area of low- mid level frontogenesis developing west to east across the area in advance of a shortwave digging into the Southeast US. Despite the anomalous PWats, the quality of boundary layer moisture doesn't look as good as it did in previous model runs, which will probably translate to weaker instability. In general, the lack of instability makes the risk of severe thunderstorms in more questionable. Interestingly, analog guidance have also backed off on the potential, synoptically. That said, the combination of moderate to strong frontogenetic forcing and anomalous moisture should still support some modest rainfall amounts, with nuisance type hydro issues not out of the question. Friday will be a wet day, but it will also start out fairly mild. Temps may not rise significantly from morning temps, but it will still be well above normal.

Significant forecast changes continue to appear prudent in the Friday night through Sunday period. This is being driven by deterministic model guidance continuing to trend towards a deeper, slower, and more negatively-tilted shortwave moving through the Southeast US/Mid-Atlantic States late in the week.

At the SFC, an initial cold front is still forecast to move through Friday night, but then stall offshore to our south as the digging shortwave approaches from the west. This is also a classic setup for cyclogenesis along the stalled front, as strong mid-level height falls overspread the strengthening baroclinic zone. Medium range guidance is in remarkably good agreement this far out on a sub- 1000mb SFC low tracking NE up along the coast of the Carolinas. Track changes are possible, but based on the current forecast track, this would setup a period of enhanced rainfall potential thanks to the potential for coupled forcing, strong jet dynamics, and an influx of deep moisture. The potential exists for a good 1-3" of rainfall to occur on top of what falls on Friday, and this could lead to some marginal hydro concerns. WPC has added a "Marginal" risk of flash flooding for much of ENC for Saturday, and this seems more than reasonable.

Additionally, the deeper system would open the door to some coastal impacts thanks to a period of strong onshore flow, potentially followed by a period of strong soundside onshore, northerly flow. Stay tuned for updates on this potential in the coming days.

Finally, despite the upper low moving overhead with a pocket of colder temps aloft, the low-level thicknesses still look too warm for precipitation type concerns, but given the potential for heavier precipitation rates, this will continue to be re-evaluated in later forecasts.

Zonal flow returns early next week with quieter weather and moderating temperatures.

Marine
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/... As of 210pm Wednesday...Continue the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for elevated seas though conditions are beginning to slowly improve and this trend will continue overnight and Thursday. A dry back door cold front will sag southwestward through the northern and central waters and sounds through late this evening when it when it is forecast to stall over the southern portion of the central waters and Pamlico Sound. This boundary will become diffuse Thu as it lifts north of the waters as a warm front. Elevated seas 5-8 ft continue north of Cape Lookout which is down a couple of feet from this morning. Expect this trend to continue with seas subsiding below 6 ft south of Ocracoke Inlet early this evening, and north of Oregon Inlet after midnight tonight. The elevated seas will continue at or above 6 ft over the extreme outer central waters through Thu.

Behind the front winds will veer from N 5-10 kt to E this evening and then SE toward Thu morning. South of the front W to SW winds 5-10 kt will become SE around dawn Thu. Over the outer central waters where SST's are warm (>70F) stronger winds of 15-20 kt will continue through early evening. On Thu SE winds 5-10 kt in the morning will become S/SW 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Outside the outer central waters, seas over the northern waters will subside to 3-5 ft overnight and 2-4 ft across the southern waters. On Thu seas outside the outer central waters seas will build to 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 245am Wednesday... **Models continue to trend towards an impactful period for mariners this weekend**

Thursday will start out with seas of 2-5 ft and breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20 kt. Winds and seas will gradually build through Friday, although winds and seas may not get as high on Friday as previously forecast. This suggests a lower risk of gale-force winds through at least the daylight hours Friday.

Attention then turns to the Friday night through Monday period as a potent storm system moves through along with the potential for a strong coastal low. This will bring and increased risk of impactful winds and seas, and mariners are encouraged to stay tuned for later forecasts and possible headlines regarding this potential coastal event.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 330pm Wednesday...Model guidance continues to trend towards a deeper coastal low impacting the Carolinas this weekend. If this trend holds, there would be a subsequent increase in the risk for coastal impacts, especially Saturday and Sunday. Stay tuned for updates on this potential.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154.