Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds, Decreasing To 5 Seconds In The Afternoon. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight.|
|Sat...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat.|
|Sat Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers. A Chance Of Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1002pm EDT Wednesday September 19 2018
Synopsis: High pressure will bring a period of dry weather lasting into the early weekend along with more comfortable humidity. A slow moving front may bring some showers and thunderstorms late weekend into early next week.
Near Term - Through Thursday
10PM update... Aside from some remnant low/mid level clouds, remnants of dying convection across VA skirting across the interior portions of E NC, mostly clear conditions are expected for the remainder of the overnight hours. Already, most OBs sites have decoupled away from the sounds and Outer Banks. Patchy fog is already being observed near Greenville. With this decoupling the risk for patchy fog will linger through morning, with the highest risk in areas still impacted by flood waters, or typically susceptible valleys. Otherwise, a cooler night than the last several.
Previous discussion follows... Outside of diurnal CU, mainly dry air through the column has led to a mostly sunny day today even as a very weak cyclonic wave dives southward into the trough left by the remnants of Florence offshore. While this wave has led to a few pop-up showers and even a thunderstorm across northern VA, with sunset approaching the loss of diurnal support should keep E NC mainly dry.
With the wave shifting offshore overnight, mid level ridging with 500mb heigheights around 594dm begins to build E across NC. This will lead to quiet conditions both tonight and into the daytime on Thu thanks to strong subsidence. A spot of fog is possible late tonight in the typically prone locations.
Otherwise, min temps tonight cooler than most nigheights past, dipping into the upper 60s and low 70s, coolest inland. Highs on Thu, even with 850mb temps near +16C should be moderated by NE onshore flow, keeping highs mainly in the low-mid 80s. Comfortable humidity thanks to drier dewpoints
Short Term - Thursday Night Through Friday Night
High pressure and upper level ridging remains in control through Fri night. This suggests mainly a few clouds but with breaks of sun, comfortable humidity and highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s
Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday
As a weakening upper level wave shifts east from the Continental Divide, it forces the mean jet to the south by the weekend. With it an attendant front will slip south as well, stalling as it becomes parallel with the flow aloft in the mid Atlantic region. With this adjustment in the mean flow, moisture will once again rise, with PWATs averaging about 1.75-2.00 in. With the front nearby, Sunday and Mon, especially during peak destabilization some heavy showers and thundershowers possible. This risk does linger into early next week, but will be somewhat dependent on where the front ultimately rests.
With the high PWATs these showers and storms will need to be watched, as previous forecaster noted as flooding will still be ongoing in some locations from Florence. Otherwise seasonably mild with higher humidity likely.
Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 315pm Wednesday... Dry weather for tonight with high pressure over the NE states. Sub- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected with 10-15 kt NE flow and 2-4 ft seas over coastal waters.
Long Term /Thu through Sat/... As of 315pm Wednesday... NE winds are forecast at 10-15 kt over the Sounds Thu with 15-20 kt over coastal waters where seas will be 4-6 ft. As such a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Ocracoke Inlet north across the offshore areas out 20 nautical miles through Thu night. Lighter onshore winds then for Fri and Sat
As of 100pm Wednesday...Major Flooding continues for inland rivers. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into flooded roadways.
Areal and River Flood Warnings continue farther inland and south. Warnings here will persist through at least mid week as water upstream continues to flow through rivers across eastern NC. The Neuse, Trent and Cape Fear rivers will likely take the longest to fully recede...with forecasts remaining well above flood stage through the remainder of the week
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104.
Small Craft Advisory from 8am Thursday to 6am EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154