Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt Until Early Morning, Then Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 11 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy Until Early Morning, Then Diminishing To Light Chop Late. A Chance Of Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Early This Evening. Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late This Evening And Overnight. |
| Mon...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And N 4 Ft At 4 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Rain With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Mon Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 5 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 5 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. |
| Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Ne 4 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And Nw 2 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. |
| Wed...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. |
| Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 237pm EST Sunday Nov 2 2025 Synopsis A weak but quick moving coastal low forms tonight impacting the area overnight into early Monday with rain, heavy at times near the coast. High pressure builds back over the Carolinas in the low's wake to drift offshore Wednesday. Dry cold front crosses the FA late WED night/early THU with SFC ridge building to the N into late week. Near Term - Through Tonight As of 215pm Sun...Potent upper low continues to dig towards the southeastern coast this afternoon while surface coastal trough continues to sharpen. MHX NEXRAD and GOES satellite data indicate a small but compact low is attempting to form over the western wall of the Gulf Stream south of Cape Lookout, with periodic convection ongoing across the southern waters. Hi-res model consensus in good agreement on the further development of this small low tonight, quickly lifting near or across the Outer Banks overnight and exiting Monday morning. Good frontogenetic forcing aloft and isentropic lift will result in widespread rain across the region, especially after sunset, and maintained high Probability of Precipitation from the previous forecast. Still a signal for some enhanced rainfall totals along the track of the low, where totals in excess of an inch are possible (and up to 3" in a worst case scenario where robust convection tracks inland). Best chances to see these totals is across down east Carteret and the Outer Banks. Inland, rainfall totals will likely range from a quarter to half inch. Clouds and strong WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) tonight will keep lows considerably milder than yesterday, in the mid to upper 50s and near 60 along the coast. Short Term - Monday As of 215pm Sun...Surface low will quickly race northward tomorrow as upper low gradually moves overhead and then offshore by Monday evening. Any ongoing precipitation in the morning will be confined to eastern coastal locales and taper down to light showers by the afternoon. Northwest winds pick up later in the day in the wake of the low, but low clouds will stick around through the day as moisture remains trapped under a low- level inversion until dry air is able to mix down overnight. Highs top out in the low to mid 60s. Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday As of 0230 Sunday... Key Messages: - FA lies on the cool side of a low working up the Carolina coast monday, representing the only chance of rain during the work week. - King Tide cycle this week brings elevated water levels and potential for minor coastal flooding - High pressure through much of the period with dry cold FROPA middle of the week. Early Week...Stout positively tilted trough aloft shifts Eward with cutoff midlevel low traversing SC pushing offshore deepening the coastal trough to a weak coastal low at the SFC located somewhere just off, or perhaps directly over the Crystal Coast, moving NEward through the day Monday. Rain ongoing from Sunday night, heaviest along the immediate coast early wanes through the day as the low pulls further away from the MidAtlantic coast. Upper ridge centered over the Nern Gulf keeps flow aloft zonal while strengthening SFC high to drifts Eward across the MS River Valley and eventually off the coast of the Carolinas Tues night. Wednesday through end of week....WED, the SFC high furthers its trip offshore, turning the early week Nerly low level flow Serly leading to warmer conditions ahead of the next trough aloft working Eward across the Mid- Atlantic WED night THU morning. The trough will usher a SFC low across the Great Lakes toward New England which will drag a dry cold front through the FA at the same time. Another ridge builds in the wake of the front toward DelMarVA leading to Nerly SFC flow regime and cooler temps. Marine SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 240pm Sun...Boating conditions beginning to deteriorate as compact low pressure takes shape south of Cape Lookout this afternoon. Regional observations show healthy easterly winds on the northern periphery of this low with gusts already up to 25-30 kt at times. Seas are currently 2-4 feed area wide. Low is expected to develop further overnight and lift northward through Monday, exiting our waters Monday evening. Eastern SCA conditions likely through tonight on the northern side of the low, and may see some hyper-localized areas of low-end Gales in this flow, likely associated with convection. Due to the isolated nature of this, opted not to put up Gales this evening. More widespread SCA (Small Craft Advisory) expected starting Monday afternoon and extending into mid-week as northwesterly winds increase behind the low. For this, added inland sounds and the Neuse to the SCA suite with an expansion likely needed for Albemarle Sound and Alligator River starting late Monday evening. Seas build through the period with the increase in winds, peaking at 5-8 feet north of Cape Hatteras on Monday and 4-7 feet elsewhere. LONG TERM /Monday night into Friday/... As of 0300 Sunday...Seas further build Monday as deepening coastal low works NEward up the NC coast bringing widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Winds become more NWerly once low pressure center gets NE of area waters with winds and seas remaining elevated. High pressure then begins to build in from the west Tuesday pushing aforementioned low further out to sea resulting in winds and seas briefly laying down. SFC high drifts offshore Wednesday turning winds SWerly ahead of a dry cold front that will cross area waters late WED night/early Thursday morning representing the next chance for SCA conditions. High pressure remaining N of the area drifts towards DelMarVA late week. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Monday to 10am EST Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-137-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5am Monday to 4pm EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 7pm EST Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 1pm EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. |
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