Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SAT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 734 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
Today...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Tonight...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.
Sun...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Tue...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Increasing To Rough. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731am EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Synopsis
Low pressure to our northeast strengthens as it moves further away. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend with another frontal passage likely early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 700am Friday...No changes to the forecast.

Previous Discussion...As of 415am Friday...Fog has dissipated from the coastal plain as dry air advection has been breaking away at it over the past hour. SPS for patchy dense fog expires at 5AM, but threat has ended at this point. We are rain- free with clear skies and calm to light W/NW winds. Temps are currently in the low 40s, dropping down to the upper 30s/near 40 inland over the next couple hours. Along beaches temps are in the upper 40s and will drop to the mid 40s around daybreak.

Downsloping winds will warm us up, bringing high temperatures up to the upper 60s over mainland ENC and mid 50s along the OBX today. These downsloping winds paired with daytime mixing allowing higher momentum air aloft to make it down to the surface will result in gusty conditions today, up to 25-30 mph along the coastal plain. Some scattered cumulus could move in from the north in the afternoon/evening along a weak shortwave.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Saturday
As of 430am Friday...Pressure starts building in Friday night as a surface high moves to our south and we decouple. Dry air will prevent any fog formation, and lows will be in the mid 40s inland, and low 50s for beaches. Mid and upper level clouds start moving in from the west early morning Saturday.

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
As of 345am Fri...High pressure remains in place through the weekend resulting in benign weather across ENC with above average temperatures forecast. Next potential frontal boundary then impacts the area Tuesday into Wednesday with another ridge of high pressure building in from the west to end the week.

Saturday through Monday... Zonal flow remains overhead on Sat with a weak mid level shortwave riding along the zonal flow to our north. At the surface, frontal boundary will extend W-E across the Ohio River Valley and into northern Virginia with a weak low riding E'wards along the front. Surface ridging continues to extend N'wards into the Carolinas during this timeframe. While we expect to remain precipitation free on Sat some additional cloud cover may begin to sneak into our northern zones Sat afternoon and evening, though with breezy SW'rly surface winds and increasing low level thicknesses expecting a rather pleasant day overall with high temps getting into the mid 70s inland and upper 60s along the OBX, while lows remain rather warm Sat night only getting down into the mid 50s. As we step into Sunday, upper ridging builds overhead as a positively tilted upper trough begins to dig into the western CONUS. At the surface, ridging begins to slide off to the east while the pesky surface front to our north dips slightly S'wards nearing the CWA (County Warning Area) Sunday evening with yet another weak surface low riding E'wards along the boundary, this will allow additional cloud cover to build further south across the area, though we expect to generally remain precipitation free Sunday as well. By Mon, upper level trough quickly pushes E into the Plains and Upper Midwest with upper ridging still extending over the Eastern Seaboard. Ridging continues to extend N'wards into the Carolinas on Monday as well resulting in a pleasant day overall, however cloud cover will be on the increase as the aforementioned frontal boundary sags further south with even an isolated chance for a shower or two along our northern zones Monday evening. Increasing low level thicknesses and a steady SW'rly breezes will keep temps well above average on Sunday and Monday with highs getting into the 80s inland and near 70 along the OBX and coast.

Tuesday and Wed...Upper level trough quickly pushes E'wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard by Wed. Associated surface low and cold front also quickly march E'wards bringing our next best threat for precipitation on Tuesday and Wed. There does look to be enough instability in place for some isolated thunder primarily Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning with this frontal passage when the best forcing overspreads the area so have included that in the latest forecast. Front pushes offshore by Wednesday evening allowing the area to clear out rather rapidly from west to east. Front quickly pushes offshore by Wed evening. Last above average temperature day will be Tuesday with temps then lowering back closer to normal on Wednesday with the passage of the cold front.

Thurs through end of the week... High pressure ridging builds back into the Eastern Seaboard from the west to end the workweek bringing steady W'rly winds and fair weather to ENC. Temps will remain about avg from Thurs onward.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Friday night/... As of 730am Friday...Dropped the small craft advisory for all sounds with this update. No other major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 430am Friday...Coastal low has lifted east of the delmarva peninsula, strengthening later than anticipated. This has resulted in winds under performing, near 25kts for coastal waters and sounds. Have dropped all gale warnings with this update, and replaced them with SCA's. Dropped the SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for Neuse, Pamlico, and Alligator rivers. SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) for the sounds will drop this morning, with coastal waters SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continuing with 6+ ft seas going into the weekend. It is likely that coastal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for waters from Oregon Inlet to Duck will drop sooner than what is currently drawn up. We will be monitoring observations through the day today as models are inconsistent with how quickly seas drop. Winds are currently NW'rly 10-20G25kts for waters, and seas are 4-7 ft.

Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday
As of 4AM Friday...High pressure ridging will extend northwards over our waters through the weekend. Will have a stalled front to the north which should pinch the gradient Sat afternoon resulting in 5-15 kt W-SW'rly winds briefly increasing to 20-25 kts across the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. 10-20 kt winds will be found across the rest of the waters Sat afternoon and evening. 2-4ft seas to start the period will also build in response to the increasing winds up to 5-8 ft along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, with 4-6 ft seas found across our northern coastal waters and lower wave heigheights across the inland sounds and rivers. As a result will keep the ongoing SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) south of Oregon Inlet up through Sat. With additional SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) possibly needed across the Pamlico Sound and northern coastal waters at some point tonight to cover this threat. Elevated winds and seas then persist into Sunday morning before more benign boating weather finally returns to all the waters. General 5-15 kt SW'rly winds and 2-5 ft seas are forecast from Sunday afternoon onwards.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 515am Friday... Just as quick as the winds came up yesterday, the winds have eased fairly rapidly this morning as the previously mentioned low pressure system well to our north and east had deepened a bit further away from the coast overnight allowing the pressure gradient to be slightly more relaxed this morning and for winds to be lighter than previously forecast. This has allowed the seas to lower slightly sooner than forecast and the previously issued high surf advisory has since been cancelled.

Otherwise the overall spirit of the forecast hasn't changed since the previous update with at least one more round of some minor coastal flooding impacts (generally around 1-2 ft AGL) possible with this mornings high tide (~1040AM) for soundside locations of Ocracoke and Hatteras Island, mainly where dune structures have been compromised. Current forecast then suggests the coastal flooding threat lowers after this morning with no current extension of the ongoing coastal flood advisories planned.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for NCZ204-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154-156- 158.