Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 10 To 15 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 5 Ft At 7 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop Late. Rain Early, Then A Chance Of Rain Late. |
| Tonight...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Nw 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 4 Ft At 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Sw 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And Ne 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 10 Seconds And W 3 Ft At 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight. |
| Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And Sw 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And W 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas Around 2 Ft, Building To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then Rain Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. Rain. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 211pm EST Wednesday Feb 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant forecast changes. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light rain will end from north to south today, followed by a few days of cooler conditions. 2) Low pressure is forecast to impact the area this weekend bringing another round of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms. 3) Increasing signal for above normal temperatures next week. Marine Increased risk of hazardous conditions for small craft through Thursday morning mainly along the coastal waters. Monitoring the potential for marine impacts this weekend into early next week associated with low pressure moving through. KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will push offshore this evening, with rain ending from north to south. Just behind the cold front, much drier air is knocking on our door, with upstream dewpoints in the 20s. This drier airmass, plus modest Cold Air Advection will support a return to colder conditions for a few days. With high pressure overhead, good radiational cooling conditions are expected by Friday night, setting the stage for the coldest night of the weekend. Lows Friday night were dropped below blended guidance given the setup. Some of the typically colder locations could fall into the low 20s by Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper level low over western California is forecast to open up and translate east across the Southern U.S. this weekend, eventually moving off the Southeast U.S or Mid- Atlantic Coasts early next week. Guidance continue to struggle with the evolution of the wave as it reaches the Southeast, flip-flopping between a more organized/phased/deeper system vs a less organized/weaker system. Ensemble guidance seem to favor the weaker solution, but some of the recent deterministic and machine learning guidance have trended more towards a more organized/deeper system. Given the run-to-run inconsistencies, the messaging of this system will remain the same for now. As has been previously mentioned, wintry precipitation still appears unlikely with either solution. The main differences (weak vs strong) appear to impact winds (weaker vs stronger), temperatures (colder vs warmer), and the thunderstorm potential (low risk vs higher risk). Guidance should begin to get a better handle on the evolution of the system once it begins to kick east of the West Coast. Regardless, this system should offer the next opportunity for widespread rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 3...Ensemble guidance continue to forecast a notable upper level trough developing east of the Rockies, with the low- level flow becoming southerly across the Carolinas. Synoptically, this pattern favors above normal temperatures for ENC. Adding support to this potential, the latest guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures across our area next week. Marine A cold front will continue to gradually push south through area waters this afternoon and evening. Behind the front, moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will develop, lasting into Thursday afternoon. During this time, winds are expected to peak at 20-25kt, with seas of 4-7ft. High pressure builds in Thursday night, and is expected to remain overhead through Saturday. This will favor lower winds and seas. Outlook: Model guidance continue to differ regarding the strength of a weather system that is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. A weaker system would favor a lower risk area of 25kt winds, while a stronger system would favor a more widespread area of 25kt winds, and even the potential for gale- force winds. Given the run-to- run inconsistencies in the models, confidence is low to moderate regarding the magnitude of marine impacts with this system. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 4pm EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Thursday for AMZ156-158. |
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