Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

WED

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 1255 AM EST Tue Mar 02 2021

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.
Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Wed...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds, Decreasing To 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. Rain Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Wed Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Evening. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.
Thu Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy After Midnight.
Fri...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To Light Chop.
Sat...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy.
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922 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region from the north Tuesday followed by low pressure passing just offshore Wednesday. High pressure builds back in to round out the work week. Another offshore low could affect the area over the weekend.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935pm EST Monday Mar 1 2021

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure will build into the region from the north Tuesday followed by low pressure passing just offshore Wednesday. High pressure builds back in to round out the work week. Another offshore low could affect the area over the weekend.

Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 930pm Mon...Latest analysis shows cold front draped over Crystal Coast. Expect a NWrly wind shift behind the front with temps dropping overnight. No changes to prev disc.

Prev disc...Upper trough will depart the region tonight taking the cold front and attendant moisture with it. Shower activity will continue to struggle ahead of FROPA and only show slight chance Probability of Precipitation before midnight, drying out completely as cool high pressure builds in from the northwest. Upper level moisture stream will keep a layer of mid and high clouds overhead, keeping lows in the upper 30s inland and around 40 closer to the coast.

Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 350pm Mon...Upper level ridge briefly builds overhead as upper low over Texas slides eastward. Surface high pressure will shift over the mid-Atlantic and begin to erode late as a surface low begins to take shape over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Deeper moisture will be shunted south with sunnier conditions expected especially towards the Albemarle Sound. Much cooler with low-level thicknesses about 60-80 m lower than today, supporting highs around 50 and in the 40s for OBX with brisk northerly winds in the morning.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 220am Tuesday...Much cooler and dry for Tuesday, followed by more rain Wednesday as a low pressure area tracks offshore, then dry again late week with another high building in. There are mixed signals in the models regarding a possible coastal low and it's impacts on Eastern NC during next weekend.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Better model agreement on upper pattern by midweek, as they are converging on a solution with the next shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners region early in the week, passing through the TN Valley on Tue, and then through the SERN CONUS mid week. The latest guidance is suggesting that the onset of precipitation will hold off until after midnight Tuesday night and that there will be a south to north moisture gradient Wed, with areas south of Highway 264 having the best chances for rain and the highest amounts. Will forecast categorical Probability of Precipitation south, likely central, and will only have chance northeast zones based on the 0Z model run. Temps near climo this period, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows 35-45.

Thursday through Friday...High pressure will build over the area with dry weather expected and a reinforcement of the cold temps Fri. Temps will be near climo due Thu, dropping below normal on Fri.

Saturday and Sunday...Looks like low pressure will be developing off the southeast coast this weekend. The track of this system will be critical to how much wind/precipitation impact's there will be across Eastern NC. There is still lack of run to run continuity and differences in the models, with areas east of Highway 17 having the best chance of precipitation which at this times looks like a cold rain. This is almost a week away so expecting a lot of variance in solutions over the next couple of days but will continue to monitor.

Marine
Short Term /Tonight and Tomorrow/... As of 400pm Mon...Latest observations show southwesterly winds at 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 feet from Diamond Shoals north, with seas 4-6 south. Next cold front is expected to cross the area later tonight with winds veering northwesterly and surging to 20-25 kt over Pamlico Sound and offshore waters, especially after midnight. This will help drive seas to their peak of 5-7 feet right around daybreak Tuesday. A few spotty Gale Force gusts are possible overnight especially closer to the Gulf Stream. Only changes to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) was to extend headlines over the Pamlico Sound.

High pressure builds over the region Tuesday, resulting in lighter easterly winds and seas falling to 3-5 feet north of Diamond Shoals, 2-4 feet south.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 220am Monday...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will be ongoing Tuesday in the brisk northerly flow behind the cold front. Winds will start out 20-25 kt then diminish to 10-15 kt in the afternoon with 5-7 ft seas subsiding to 3-5 ft late. Winds will continue 10-15 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday morning while veering SE with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft, then winds are forecast to increase yet again out of the N to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels late Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure passes just off of the coast. Northerly flow 15-20 kt Thu will diminish to 5-10 late Fri as high pressure builds over the waters. Seas build to 4-6 ft Wednesday night-early Thu then subside to 3-5 ft late Thu and 2-4 ft Fri.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 6pm EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.