Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TODAY

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

E
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

S
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 652 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
Today...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming E Late. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop Late.
Tonight...E Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Se 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 11 Seconds, Decreasing To 6 Seconds After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough After Midnight. Showers Likely In The Evening, Then Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Fri...S Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Rough In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 6 To 9 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.
Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Morning.
Sat Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Sun...W Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Nw. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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652 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
High pressure will slide offshore today. A complex low pressure system will impact the region tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday into early next week.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
717am EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore today. A complex low pressure system will impact the region tonight into Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest Sunday into early next week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 720am Thu...No changes to the forecast. Cirrus quickly beginning to spill over upper ridge and cloud cover will only continue to build as the day progresses. SCU deck is beginning to dissipate and expect some peaks of sun over the coast for the better part of the morning and afternoon.

Prev disc...Quiet weather continues over eastern North Carolina this morning as upper ridge axis extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Great Lakes slowly breaks down ahead of a deep negatively tilted trough over the southern plains. At the surface, weak high pressure extends into the mid-Atlantic from the north while a surface low occludes over the Ozarks.

Conditions will remain generally pleasant for much of today as the high weakens and high clouds increase ahead of the approaching surface cyclone. Winds back southeasterly ahead of the low's attendant warm front, expected to be lifting into the Carolinas by the end of the period. Scattered shower activity will increase west of Highway 17 through dusk, but no severe activity is anticipated. Highs climb into the low 70s.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Friday
As of 355am Thu...The main event is expected tonight as the warm front approaches and then lifts across eastern North Carolina overnight, allowing for precipitation coverage to further increase, maximizing shortly after midnight. The biggest challenge for the forecast is the potential for severe storms overnight. The kinematic environment is more than favorable for supercell structures with effective shear 40+ kt and favorable 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2, but the fly in the ointment is instability which is forecast to be near non-existent until after 06z. All hi-res guidance points to a very short window of favorable severe conditions as the warm front crosses from southwest to northeast but the cold front close on its heels. This will provide a narrow area of MLCAPEs around 500 J/kg (the NAM suggests a generous but unlikely 1000+ J/kg), maximized along and south of Highway 70. If storms do form in this window, they will have the potential to produce damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes given forecast large hodographs.

Of particular note is a convective complex forecast by most CAMs to develop well to our south over the Gulf Stream and persist for much of the evening. Features like this have historically blocked any appreciable moisture and instability from being realized over our area, resulting in just some light stratiform rain. Therefore, the aforementioned severe threat is highly conditional and upstream conditions will need to be closely watched during the evening.

As the front crosses the waters, strong onshore winds will lead to dangerous surf conditions north of Cape Lookout overnight into Friday. Although gusts over OBX could reach above 40 mph at times, held off on a Wind Advisory for the area given high uncertainty.

Long Term - Friday Through Wednesday
As of 315am Thu...Active weather pattern through the first part of the period with troughing generally persisting over the eastern US and large complex low pressure system impacting the area Fri and Sat. High pressure will build over the area Sunday into early next week. A weak cold front will move through the area mid next week.

Friday through Saturday...Stacked low pressure over the TN valley region will slowly lift across the southern Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. The associated warm front will continue.nue to lift through the eastern NC Friday morning with occluding cold front following quickly behind it. The severe tstm threat will continue.nue through Fri morning. Ample shear and low level helicity in place for strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts and tornado threat, but instability remains the limiting factor. Storm Prediction Center currently has the E/NE portions of the area outlooked in a Marginal risk for Friday morning. Supercellular features producing damaging winds and possibly a few brief tornadoes are the main concern, especially for coastal areas. Pockets of moderate to locally heavy rain expected as well, as precipitation shifts NE through the forecast area. Precip expected to become more scattered Friday afternoon, with best chances across the NE. Warm and humid Fri with highs in the 70s, with dewpoints in the 60s falling back into the 50s through the day. Isolated showers Sat, best chances along the immediate coast. Cooler Sat with highs 65-70 deg.

Sunday through Tuesday...Low pressure will continue.nues to lift through the NE US as trough axis shifts off the east coast. Upper flow becomes more zonal Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the WNW. Upper ridge begins to build across the SE Monday as next frontal system approaches from the west. Near normal temps expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows mid/upper 40s inland and 50s along the coast.

Tuesday and Thursday...High pressure will slide off the coast Tuesday as a weakening cold front approaches from the west. The front is forecast to push through Tuesday night, though still some timing differences this far out. Little moisture with this feature, so will continue.nue dry forecast through Wed. Moisture increases late week with low pressure moving through the gulf states. Near normal temps will continue.nue through the period with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s.

Marine
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 405am Thu...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions continue north of Cape Hatteras early this morning with seas 6-8 feet with northerly winds 10-15 kt. Elsewhere, seas were around 2-4 feet with winds generally 10 kt or less. Main change to the marine forecast this update was to upgrade all offshore waters to a Gale Warning starting late tonight into Friday morning as southeasterly winds quickly increase ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. The period of gales will be brief (4-6 hrs) but frequent gusts to 35 kt are expected, with higher winds likely especially for southern waters with convective enhancement.

The southeasterly winds will aid in seas quickly building after midnight, reaching 7-9 feet for southern waters and 8-12 feet for central and northern waters. High seas will continue.nue well into the long term period.

Long Term - Friday Through Monday
As of 315am Thu...Complex low pressure system will impact the waters Friday and Saturday. A warm front will continue.nue to push through the waters Friday morning with the occluding cold front following quickly. Strong SE surge 20-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt will continue.nue to spread northward through the waters Fri morning. A brief period of gale force winds likely Friday morning. Dangerous seas expected, peaking at 7-12 ft (highest north of Lookout) Friday. Winds continue to veer becoming more SSW 15-25 kt later Fri. SW 15-25 kt winds Fri night and 10-20 kt Sat. High pressure will gradient build in from the west Sun, with winds becoming W 10-20 kt. The high will crest over the area Mon with Nly winds 10-15 kt.

Seas 4-7 ft Sat gradient subsiding to 3-6 ft Sunday as winds diminish and become more offshore. Seas will continue.nue to subside to 2-4 ft Mon.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 315am Thu...Strong SE winds will develop tonight and continue into the first part of Friday, before shifting SSW. Strong onshore winds will combine with large NE swells from distant low pressure. Will issue High Surf Advisory for the beaches north of Cape Lookout. Main concern is rough surf, minor beach erosion and localized ocean overwash (mainly along Hwy 12 in spots where with vulnerable dune structure), esp during times of high tide.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. High Surf Advisory from 2am to 8pm EDT Friday for NCZ196- 203>205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 9am EDT Friday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 11pm this evening to 2pm EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 2pm EDT Friday for AMZ131- 230-231. Gale Warning from 4am to 11am EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154. Gale Warning from 2am to 8am EDT Friday for AMZ156. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6am EDT Friday for AMZ158.