Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MON

S
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

S
WINDS
15
KNOTS

TUE

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 648 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
Tonight...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt With A Few Gusts To 25 Kt Early This Evening Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Evening And Early Morning. Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Mon...S Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas Building To 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Mon Night...S Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Dominant Period 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Evening.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Wed Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
636pm EDT Sunday May 27 2018

Synopsis: High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through next week. Subtropical Storm Alberto will move into the Gulf States early next week. The remnants of it will move into the mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week. The circulation around these systems will keep a deep supply of tropical moisture and unsettled weather across the area through most of this week.

Near Term - Until 6am Monday Morning
As of 630pm Sun...No changes planned with fairly quiet weather thru the evening with rain shower and possible a storm spreading N into the region late.

Prev disc... High pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to extend west over Eastern NC tonight while Sub- Tropical storm Alberto approaches the north Gulf coast states late tonight. These systems will produce a deep southerly flow of tropical air into Eastern NC beginning late tonight and continuing into Monday night. The trend in the models is to slow down the onset and northward expansion of rain across our area which makes sense given diffluent low level flow and lack of significant forcing. Thus expecting increasing and lowering clouds this evening with rain developing late tonight especially across the southern zones. Think heavy rain threat should off until mainly after 12Z Monday. Overnight lows will be around 70 inland and low 70s coast

Short Term - 6am Monday Morning Through 6pm Monday
As of 315pm Sun...A plume of tropical moisture with seasonably extreme PW values AOA 2" will move into Eastern NC Monday and persist through mid week. Meanwhile the flow aloft will become more divergent helping to lift the moisture rich airmass leading to frequent showers/possible thunderstorms with torrential downpours across the area. The heavy rains could produce urban and poor drainage flooding and will continue the Flash Flood Watch for the entire area which was previously issued. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals with locally higher amounts are expected through early Monday evening. Precipitation and extensive clouds will limit high temps to around 80 degrees

Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
As of 315pm Sun...Main story will be unsettled weather with frequent showers with heavy downpours producing a threat for flooding of low lying areas persists through mid week as a Tropical airmass with PW values AOA 2" lingers over the area.

Tuesday through Wednesday...This period overall still looks unsettled, as PW's remain at or above the climatological max for late Spring, 2 - 2.25 inches. Broad cyclonic flow will persist with pieces of energy from the main tropical system over the OH/TN Valley swinging through the region. Best chances for showers and storms will be during the daytime as diurnal cycle destabilization occurs, and will advertise likely pops. Lesser chances during the overnight periods as diurnal heating wanes. Temps will remain summery, with this period well into the 80s and lows in the low/mid 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...The forecast becomes a bit murky beyond mid week, as precipitation chances will depend on eventual evolution of the large upper low remnants of Alberto. It does however look to continue to be on the unsettled side. 27/00Z operational suite of the ECM/GFS/CMC all indicate the system dropping south and east towards the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states with eventual surface cyclogenesis near or off the East Coast, though ensemble members diverge on depth and timing of the system. For this reason, will forecast chance probability of precipitation this period, with highest chances again focused during the daytime hours when destabilization occurs as the atms will be quite unstable each day. Temps remain very summery with highs in the mid/upper 80s interior to low/mid 80s coast.

Marine Discussion
Short Term - Through Monday: As of 630pm Sun...N changes with current SSW winds 10 to 20 kits diminishing a bit overnight. Long fetch of S flow will lead to seas at or above 6 ft developing southern tier Mon.

Prev disc...Small Craft Advisory have been posted south of Cape Hatteras for Mon into early Tue. Atlantic high pressure will continue to produce a SW to S flow across the waters through Monday. Winds speeds currently 15-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt will continue into early evening due to strong differential heating. Wind speeds then are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt from mid evening through the overnight hours. Seas 1-3 ft will build to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Monday the southerly flow will increase again to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt over the southern and central waters as the gradient tightens between Alberto well to the west and the Atlantic high to the east. This will produce a long fetch into our waters with seas forecast to build to 5 to 7 ft south of Cape Hatteras after 12Z.

Long Term - Monday night through Friday: As of 315pm Sun...The SW flow will diminish Monday night but 4-6 ft seas will be slow to subside lingering around 6 ft south of Cape Hatteras until late Tuesday morning. For the remainder of the forecast period from Tuesday afternoon through Friday winds are forecast to continue out of the S-SW 15 kt or less with seas mainly 2-4 ft

Equipment
As of 315pm Sun...KMHX radar is down until further notice, awaiting parts

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 6am EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory from 11am Monday to 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ154.
Small Craft Advisory from 9am Monday to 11am EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158

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