Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 6 Seconds And Ne 1 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Patchy Fog Late. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 7 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy In The Afternoon. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 6 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 5 Ft At 9 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 12 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 9 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 4 Ft At 8 Seconds And Ne 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Fri...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 755pm EDT Sunday May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) have been added to the northern inland sounds and rivers. The severe threat for Monday afternoon has shifted further south and decreased on this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front will move through Monday. Widespread rain showers are expected along and south of hwy 70 (60-80%). Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible south of Hwy 70 closer to the Crystal Coast 2) Monday's front lift back N as a warm front late TUE into WED followed by another cold front THU representing the next wave of showers and thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 1...Overall the synoptic environment has not changed much as we still expect a strong shortwave to push through the region on Monday. This system is forecast to have fairly strong dynamics with sharp-ish troughing aloft pivoting over ECONUS to become more negatively tilted as it approaches. At the surface a cold front will push through the region with moisture pooling out ahead of the front as PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surge to about 1.25 to 1.75 inches across ENC by Monday morning. Latest guidance suggest front will push through our northern zones around sunrise and pushing S toward the Crystal Coast in the afternoon. Biggest change over the last 24 hours is that the severe threat has shifted south, confined to areas south of Hwy 70 and along the Crystal Coast/offshore waters. This jives with the latest Hi-Res guidance, which show scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity near the Crystal Coast by Monday afternoon with a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms while further to the north more isolated showers and a lower tstm threat resides. Main threat within the strongest storms would be damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and hail. Instability will be maximized in the convergence zone between the seabreeze and the cold front and this looks to occur closer to the coast, generally E of HWY17 and S of HWY70. Long skinny CAPE profiles generally show instability values between 0.5-1.5kJ/KG. Event total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has decreased for far inland and Nern zones that are away from the greatest instability and convergence, light showers with little vertical development early, a tenth to a quarter of an inch. The area mentioned above could see in excess of an inch of precipitation under stronger cells. Storm Prediction Center has shrunk the marginal threat (level 1/5) to just the immediate Crystal Coast and points south this afternoon, so as mentioned above the threat for severe weather is diminishing but not zero just yet. Stout Cold Air Advection out of the N behind the front (strongest winds over coast, 20-25kt gusts) will bring in cool air and keep skies mostly clear into WED. Maybe upper 40s, but most likely low 50 Mins and low 70s TUE. KEY MESSAGE 2...A stacked low cutting across the Sern extent of the Great Lakes and high pressure migrating offshore brings warm and moist air across the Carolinas mid week ahead of the next front set to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday time frame. Will need to watch this system for severe potential as well. Marine Great boating weather today with 5-10 kt W'rly winds and 3-4 ft seas noted across the region. Further out to sea from about 20-60NM expecting 3-4ft seas at about 7-8sec out of the SE. Winds become SW-W at 10-15 kts tonight. Waters inside of ~40nm expected to remain shower and tstorm free. SWerly winds strengthen some Monday morning ahead of next frontal passage with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions becoming more likely with post frontal northerly flow of 25+ kt Monday evening and into Tuesday. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) remain in place for all coastal waters and Pamlico Sound this forecast cycle with the northern sounds and Alligator RIver also recently added as well as funneling N winds should produce frequent 25+ kt gusts across these areas as well. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Gale potential continues to decrease for the offshore waters overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, but the threat for brief periods of gale force gusts does remain over offshore waters S of Cape Hatteras. Winds diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure briefly reestablishes itself. Mondays front lifts back N through the region mid-week ahead of the next front to cross late Wednesday into Thursday bringing yet another potential round of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions to our waters. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Monday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Monday to 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 11am Monday to 8am EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm Monday to 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Monday to 8pm EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. |
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