Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Dominant Period 3 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms.|
|Tue...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight.|
|Wed...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Thu...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Increasing To Choppy. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000pm EDT Sunday May 22 2022
A cold front will move into the area late tonight bringing unsettled weather to the area tomorrow. The front will stall offshore through mid week, then lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another cold front will impact the area late week and early next weekend.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 10pm Sun...Have taken out mention of TS from the fcst tonight, as approaching activity from the west is void of lightning thanks to waning instability. Think scattered showers will still dot most of the area from time to time, so chance probability of precipitation remain for the southern 2/3 of the FA overnight.
Prev disc... As of 730pm Sun...No big changes with eve update.
Prev disc... As of 300pm Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop to our south and west on the northern periphery of a decaying MCS exiting the SC coast. This activity will push into Eastern NC withing the next couple of hours, and could help ignite further convective activity as well. Another possible aid to convective develop will be the temp gradient caused by extensive cloudiness along the coast so far today, with temps only in the upper 70s to low 80s across the southern coast, and the upper 80s to around 90 inland. A few strong to even severe storms are still possible this afternoon and evening as strong instability has developed despite the cloud cover, but little shear in the area will limit the longevity of any robust updraft.
Activity will decrease quickly around sunset with loss of heating, however a few widely scattered thunderstorm may persist into tonight. Convective activity then looks to increase along the coast and offshore late tonight as a lobe of shortwave energy moves nearby ahead of a cold front. Temps overnight will remain very mild and in the low 70s.
Short Term - Monday
As of 300pm Sun...A slow moving cold front will push into the northern portion of the forecast area after sunrise tomorrow, and slowly sink southward through the day. Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be possible in the morning. By the afternoon, building instability and arrival of stronger upper level shortwave energy will allow for more widespread convection to develop, and have likely Probability of Precipitation across the southern two thirds of the forecast area. A modest increase in deep layer shear will also bring the threat for a few stronger to severe thunderstorms as well, and a portion of the area is in a Marginal Risk from SPC.
Much cooler air will move into the NE part of the state behind this front with early morning highs expected here and temps falling into the upper 60s to low 70s for the rest of the day. To the south of this boundary, a hot and humid airmass will remain, and if some breaks of sunshine are see temps could rise into the mid to upper 80s along and south of US 70.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
As of 3pm Sun...Unsettled weather expected through the period with more seasonable temperatures. A cold front will linger offshore through mid week, with a stronger front expected to impact the area late week and early next weekend.
Still looks unsettled through much of the period. A cold front will stall offshore through mid week with waves of low pressure developing along it. This would keep the area on the cool side of the boundary with moist low level NE-E flow. Precip becomes scattered, even isolated at times, Tuesday through Thu, likely enhanced during diurnal peak heating. Cloud cover, precipitation and NE-E flow will keep temps near or below normal with highs in the 70s/80s. Coolest day looks like Tuesday with widespread clouds and NE flow which will keep most areas in the 70s, maybe even upper 60s for the northern Outer Banks.
Boundary will likely lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday and Wednesday night while complex low pressure strengthens over the Mid-West lifting towards the Great Lakes. The cold front associated with this system is currently forecast to push through the eastern NC late week/early next weekend. 00z GFS and EC remain in pretty good agreement with frontal passage this far out in time. Capped probability of precipitation at high chance late week for now. Slightly cooler and drier air expected behind the front for next weekend. Temps will remain near climo.
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Tomorrow/... As of 300pm Sun...Moderate SW flow will continue through tonight ahead of a cold front, with winds 15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts by early tomorrow morning. The somewhat slow moving cold front will push into the northern coastal water after sunrise, and continue to move southward through the day. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will be NE 10-20 north of Core Banks, and still SSW 10-15 kts to the south. Seas will be mostly 3-4 ft through the period.
LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 3pm Sun...Winds remain NE 10-20 kt Monday night through Tuesday, with seas mostly 3-4 ft. E/NE winds 5-15 kt continue Wednesday with seas 2-5 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. The front will lift northward as a warm front late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with winds becoming SSE 5-15 kt. Southerly flow 10-15 kt will continue Thu with seas 2-5 ft. SW flow strengthens Friday with Small craft conditions possible.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories