Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Becoming W And Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt With Frequent Gusts To 35 Kt Late. Seas 12 To 16 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 9 Ft After Midnight. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Increasing To Very Rough Late. A Chance Of Showers Early This Evening, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers Late This Evening.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft, Subsiding To 4 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds Around 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Sat...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Dominant Period 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Diminishing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.|
|Sun Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: An area of low pressure moving along the east coast will swing a cold front across the area this evening. High pressure will ridge into the region Friday through the weekend. A weak front will cross the area Sunday night. High pressure will build over the area early through mid next week.
Near Term - Through Tonight
As of 335pm Thursday...Surface analysis this afternoon continues to show a strong high centered over New England ridging south down the east coast while low pressure slowly strengthens just south of Washington, NC. The low is forecast to move north of the area by early this evening and swing a strong cold front across the region by mid evening. Prospects for heavy rain and severe weather about over with just some shower activity expected ahead of the front. Expecting most of the shower activity to end by 7 PM. Much colder and drier air will surge into the area behind the front as strong westerly flow develops behind the front tonight. Although affects from the low are waning, a few impacts are still expected: 1) Minor soundside flooding over the Outer Banks tonight into possibly early Friday 2) Low water on the western portions of the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers late tonight into early Friday. Have cancelled the Wind Advisory, and the remainder of the Flash Flood Watches.
Showers are expected ahead of the cold front through about 7 PM, then much cooler and drier air moves into the following the passage of a strong cold front by mid evening. Some gusty winds will continue behind the front along the coast but should remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the front with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland and mid to upper 40s coast.
Short Term - Friday
As of 335pm Thursday...High pressure builds over the area from the north with clear skies and cool temperatures. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s inland to mid to upper 50s coast. Gusty coastal winds in the morning will diminish in the afternoon.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Thursday
As of 345pm Thu...Drier high pressure will build in late week through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough develops by Monday and could bring some rain showers to the coast. High pressure will then build in again through midweek. Temps will generally be near climo.
Friday night through Sunday...High pressure will build in from the west through late Friday, and continue to ridge into Eastern NC this weekend. A modest warming trend will be present this weekend, with highs near climo reaching into the 60-65 range across Eastern NC. Low temps will dip to the mid 30s interior, and low to mid 40s near the beaches (except OBX which will remain in upper 40s).
Sunday night through Monday...A weak coastal trough will develop and remain near the coast Sunday night into Monday, and will bring the threat for showers to mainly coastal areas. Have the best chances of rain after midnight Sunday through Monday morning, and then taper off Probability of Precipitation from west to east later in the day.
Tuesday through Wednesday...High pressure will build back into the area from the north, with dry conditions expected. High temperatures will dip down to a bit below climo, with readings in the mid/upper 50s, and lows in the 30s interior to 40s coast.
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/... As of 335pm Thursday...Winds have briefly diminished late this afternoon as the warm front moves north of the waters. Expect winds to increase again by mid evening as westerly flow develops behind a cold front moving through the waters. Southerly flow ahead of the front will be mostly be 15-25 kt for the remainder of the day except for the central waters where winds will be 25-35 kt. Then behind the front, winds become westerly and increase to 20-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt over the central waters through tonight. Seas 10-14 ft late today will subside to 6-9 ft overnight as flow becomes offshore. Thus will extend Gales central waters tonight. Will indicate some gusts to 35 kt over the Sounds and extreme northern and southern waters but think this will occur for less than 6 hours so will instead post Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of the waters tonight into early Sat.
Winds will diminish to 10-20 kt Friday afternoon as high pressure builds over the waters though seas will be elevated AOA 6 ft until late in the day.
Have issued Low Water Advisories for the western portion of the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers as water levels likely drop to 1-2 ft below normal in the strong westerly flow.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 345pm Thurs...Winds will become the N/NE 5-15 kts Saturday and Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday, and causes winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts behind it.
Seas will then become mostly 2-4 ft in the long range
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 335pm Thu...Easterly flow has become southerly and diminished, thus have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for the western Pamlico Sound. Late this evening into early Sat strong westerly flow will develop behind a cold front. With gusts to low end Gale expected overnight water levels could reach to 2 ft above normal along the Outer Banks so have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for these minor water increases.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...High Surf Advisory until 7am EST Friday for NCZ095-103-104.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for NCZ103-104. MARINE...Low Water Advisory from 10pm this evening to 10am EST Friday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Friday for AMZ130-131- 135>137.
Gale Warning until 7am EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Friday for AMZ158