Marine Weather Net

Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

TUE

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

E
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ156 Forecast Issued: 1010 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.
Tonight...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 4 Ft At 4 Seconds And Ne 4 Ft At 8 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop After Midnight.
Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Diminishing To Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop, Diminishing To Flat After Midnight.
Wed...N Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: E 3 Ft At 9 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Flat, Increasing To Light Chop In The Afternoon.
Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Light Chop.
Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop.
Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1031am EDT Monday May 20 2024

Synopsis
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

Near Term - Today
As of 1015am Monday... Low-level clouds are quickly building back in thanks to diurnal heating of a residually-moist low-level airmass, and steepening low- level lapse rates. Temps initially warmed quicker than forecast, but should slow some thanks to the clouds building back in. I adjusted temps and clouds to better match all of the above, but otherwise, the spirit of the forecast is unchanged.

PREVIOUSHigh pressure ridging extends S'wards to our west and low pressure remains offshore to our east. Continued NE'rly flow is resulting in low stratus to once again overspread the eastern half of ENC, with some uncertainty on how far west it by daybreak. There is another low cloud deck currently west of hwy 17 in a region of modest decoupling, which is likely allowing the lower levels to moisten and produce low stratus. This layer of stratus should quickly burn off after sunrise, but the stratus impacting OBX will linger on a bit longer, breaking up later in the morning into the afternoon.

Lows get into the mid to upper 50s this morning. With the moisture column very dry above 850 mb, 0% Probability of Precipitation in place through the near term. OBX will see NE'rly gusts of 25-30mph late this morning into this afternoon with a tightened pressure gradient before subsiding to near 20mph in the evening.

Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once again as highs range from the low to mid 60s OBX to the mid 70s inland where there are more breaks in the clouds.

Short Term - Tonight
As of 400am Monday...Fog and low stratus threat tonight into early Tuesday morning with ample low level moisture and decoupling expected with ridging dominating. Introduced patchy fog west of hwy 17 with this update, particularly after 2am Tuesday. Potential exists for dense, impactful fog. Otherwise a quiet short term, with lows in the mid 50s inland, near 60 for OBX.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Sunday
As of 330pm Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wednesday and Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday
Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so probability of precipitation only in the 30's% at best. Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil shower chances overnight and morning periods.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 1015am Monday... Coastal obs along the Outer Banks continue to show reduced visibilities of around 5 miles. Webcams in the area suggest visibilities may be even lower. I've adjusted the forecast to reflect lower visibilities hanging around for longer into the morning hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was considered, but based on recent observations and short-term guidance, it appears the fog risk will be short-lived. We'll continue to monitor trends in case this risk were to worsen and/or last longer into the day.

PREVIOUSRiding over central ENC and the coastal plain is interacting with the low offshore, resulting in NE'rly breezy conditions waters. Still, gusts are generally below 25 kts, resulting in the cancellation of small craft advisories for Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters except for those off of Hatteras Island and Ocracoke. These SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) linger due to the potential for 6 ft seas in the vicinity of the gulf stream, set to expire at midnight tonight. Winds could flare up this afternoon as the gradient tightens briefly, but gusts will still largely be below 25 kts, with a few infrequent gusts of 25 kts not out of the question. The marginal nature of the gusts prevents the extension or reissuance of a SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for waters currently without a hazard.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Friday
As of 4am Sun...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Monday night all waters as high pressure begins to build in and long fetch nerly winds diminish.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154.