Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Lookout, NC out 20 NM Marine Forecast
|Overnight...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough.|
|Mon...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough, Diminishing To Choppy In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 5 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Rough. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Dominant Period 6 Seconds. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 25 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Wed...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Very Rough, Diminishing To Rough In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Evening. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy.|
|Thu...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers Choppy, Diminishing To A Moderate Chop.|
|Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Adjacent Sounds And Rivers A Moderate Chop, Increasing To Choppy. A Chance Of Showers.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000pm EST Sunday Jan 19 2020
Cold high pressure will dominate the region for most of the week. Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/... As of 10pm Sun...Only updated to slow diurnal drop in temps, as Cold Air Advection just now really ramping up. Lows will still eventually drop into the 25-30 degree range interior to low/mid 30s coast.
Prev As of 7pm Sun...No changes with early eve update. Skies have become clear with stratus and cirrus moving offshore.
Prev As of 215pm Sun...Latest surface analysis shows main cold front pushing off the coast early this afternoon, with secondary front approaching Central NC. Lingering showers have pushed offshore this afternoon ahead of the front. Latest satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the area, with clear skies on the way back to the west. Skies will clear from west to east this evening, but expect to see increasing scu along the Outer Banks late tonight as northerly flow develops. BL should stay mixed tonight with strong Cold Air Advection developing, which will keep temps from bottoming out completely but will still be plenty cold as a much drier and colder airmass surges in. Lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s inland and low to mid 30s for the beaches.
Short Term - Monday
As of 215pm Sun...Arctic high pressure centered over the Upper Mid- West US will gradually build eastward, ushering in a very cold and dry airmass into ENC. Sunny skies expected inland, but expect to see broken scu advect in along the Outer Banks with the low level northerly flow. Low level thickness values and northerly flow support highs in the upper 30s to low 40s (10-15 deg below climo).
Long Term - Monday Night Through Sunday
As of 230pm Sun...Cold conditions through Tuesday, then trending more seasonable mid-week before the next frontal system arrives next weekend.
Monday night through Thursday...Upper low embedded within broad troughing over the eastern US slides south of the area Monday night into Tuesday, then off the Southeast coast Wednesday morning. Despite the potential for vort advection aloft to encourage lift, high pressure building in from the west will keep the lower and mid levels very dry, so a dry forecast remains in place to start the workweek. Persistent northerly winds ahead of the approaching arctic high will bring some of the coldest temps of the year, with highs mainly in the lower 40s Tuesday, and lows in the lower to mid 20s inland, and around freezing at the beaches, both nights.
Heigheights aloft peak Wednesday night before beginning to fall Thursday as the upper ridge axis moves west of the area. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to build Wednesday, moving overhead or nearby Thursday. Deep subsidence keeps a dry forecast in place through mid-week, but weakening Cold Air Advection will allow temps to trend back toward normal, possibly reaching a couple degrees above normal Thursday.
Friday through Sunday
Friday will be a transition day as a broad cutoff low crossing the Midwest or Great Lakes brings continued height falls aloft, and low level flow becomes increasingly southerly as the high slides offshore and a cold front approaches from the west. Significant variability exists between global guidance, with the EC and Canadian indicating a stacked low crossing the Midwest, with the potential for a secondary wave/low to form within the approaching front and sliding across the Mid- Atlantic. Alternatively, the GFS favors a further north track of the stacked low, with a less progressive and weaker front. Have slightly favored ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) solution, with moisture advection increasing through the day Friday, and mid- range chance POPs arriving in the forecast Friday night with lingering showers Saturday night, then becoming dry after the cold front pushes through.
Short Term - Through Monday: As of 215pm Sun..Gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through the period. Cold high pressure will gradually build over the waters through Monday, with strong Cold Air Advection developing tonight. Latest obs shows WNW winds 15-25 kt with seas 3-6 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 6-11 ft south. Secondary front will push through the waters this evening, with northerly winds surging to 20-25 kt gusting to 30 kt. Seas will remain elevated at 5-8 ft. N winds 20-25 kt early Monday diminishing to 15-25 kt in the afternoon, strongest north of Ocracoke. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) continues for all waters and sounds into Monday. Continued SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke and Alligator Rvr through late Monday morning, but frequent gusts to 25 kt could continue across the eastern portions though the day.
Long Term /Monday night through Friday/... As of 230pm Sun...Persistent north winds bring hazardous marine conditions to continue through midweek as high pressure builds in from the west and low pressure develops well off the Southeast coast. Cold Air Advection should ensure efficient mixing of winds to the surface, resulting in breezy conditions on all area waterways. Seas remain elevated through mid to late week in mainly locally generated windswell, and SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) will likely be necessary for all coastal waters through Friday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EST Wednesday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST Wednesday for AMZ150.