Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 25 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Sat...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers, Then Showers Likely. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| 325 PM EDT Wed May 5 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A cold front will slowly approach from the west today and cross tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region late in the week with cooler weather this weekend.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
713pm EDT Wednesday May 5 2021
A cold front will push through the area tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region late week with cooler weather this weekend.
Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning
As of 710pm Wednesday...Latest mesoanalysis and convective data shows a rather stable airmass in place across eastern NC this evening with surface-based CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg with mostly W/WNW flow aloft. With the atmosphere less conducive to support deep convection, Storm Prediction Center has removed the Marginal threat area from our CWA this evening. Based on current trends, may not see much precipitation at all in our CWA this evening. Lowered PoPs to slight chance over all but the far western/northern tier which will be a bit closer to the mid-level support, but overall scant rainfall expected this evening, especially near the coast where the rainfall is especially needed. Cold front will shift offshore after midnight with breezy and cooler conditions expected. Lows by morning in the 55-60 degree range for most all of the CWA.
Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through 6pm Thursday
As of 400pm Wed...Thursday will see weak high pressure form behind the front over northeastern North Carolina which will keep conditions cool and dry with high temperatures topping out in the low 70s inland with mid 60s along the coast. Winds over the water will remain breezy at least through theam hours. No precipitation is expected.
Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 325am Wed...High pressure will briefly be in control Thursday. Low pressure is expected to develop off the coast Friday and bring wet conditions to close out the work week. The weekend appears dry before the next frontal system impacts the area.
Thursday...High pressure briefly builds into the the Carolinas behind the departing front with much cooler air settling over the region. Highs expected in the low 70s inland but with a cool northerly wind OBX will likely get only into the mid 60s.
Friday...Lobe of upper energy is expected to pivot a quasi- stationary low centered over the Hudson Bay late Thursday into Friday morning, helping to spur development of a coastal low off the NC coast. Shower development is expected to increase late Thursday through Friday, coming to an end late in the day as the low lifts towards the New England coastline. Highs still on the cool side, hovering right around 70.
Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure builds in from the west for the weekend ushering in dry and moderating conditions. Temperatures rebound into the 80s by Sunday and Monday with increasing southwesterly flow. Next frontal system approaches the region sometime Monday and is expected to stall over the Carolinas to close out the period. Temperatures dip back into the mid to upper 70s.
SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 710pm Wednesday...Winds at early evening are SW at 15-20 knots with seas 3-5 feet. Latest HRRR/3km NAM show an increasing wind trend behind moderately strong cold front that moves offshore after midnight. Northerly surge 15-25 kt expected behind the front early Thu morning. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) continue for the waters south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound as well as Neuse/Bay rivers which will drop off this evening. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions likely to develop across the northern waters and Albemarle Sound region behind the front tonight.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 340am Wed...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are likely to linger for Thursday morning with northerly surge coming to an end. NNE winds 10-15 kt in the afternoon will back NW as coastal low develops offshore and lifts northward towards New England. Guidance beginning to come into agreement that at least SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions appear probable in the low's wake, but want to see a little more consistency before explicitly showing these conditions in the forecast. High pressure builds back over the waters for the weekend with calming winds, then moves offshore with increasing southwesterly SCA-level winds.
Seas fall to around 2 feet by late Friday, then building to at least 2-4 feet by Friday night into Saturday. Seas fall back to 2-3 feet for Saturday night and Sunday before quickly building to 5-6 feet with SW surge.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.
Small Craft Advisory until 9am EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7am EDT Thursday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11am EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2am EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9am EDT Thursday for AMZ150.