Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. Showers. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Mon...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Tue Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 158pm EDT Fri July 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) issued for the Pamlico Sound and nearshore coastal waters late Saturday into Sunday. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Building heat and humidity through the weekend. 2) Unsettled pattern expected to return this weekend into next week, including a risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, peaking this afternoon and again Saturday. While elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires make continue to impact the area, available smoke guidance keeps the bulk of this north of the area through the weekend. Heat Advisory continues for most of the area through this evening. Conditions look very similar for Sat, with highs in the mid/upper 90s inland and upper 80s/low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints 70-80 deg. Will likely need another Heat Advisory for most of the area Sat with heat index values likely in excess of 105 deg. KEY MESSAGE 2...There are several factors expected to support an increasingly active pattern from the weekend into next week, but also with some important considerations. Upper level troughing is forecast to develop across the Eastern U.S. with ridging shifting away from the area. The lack of subsidence, alone, can help support a more active pattern. Additionally, persistent southerly flow east of the trough, potentially with a subtropical connection, should act to enhance low-mid level moisture across the area. Meanwhile, heating of a moistening boundary layer should lead to sufficient instability and reduced inhibition in support of periods of convection. Today, iso showers and storms developing with the seabreeze this afternoon. This convection should wane with loss of heating and svr threat looks low at this time. At the surface, the front draped through the Albemarle Sound this afternoon will lift back Nward into VA tonight, acting to "warm- sector" the entire FA for the weekend. Lee-side troughing and, eventually, a frontal boundary that will reach the FA by MON should provide areas of enhanced low- level forcing this weekend. Storm Prediction Center has portions of the FA outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms SAT. This threat for day 2 mostly encompasses the potential for stronger storms that develop W and N of the FA in the afternoon reaching NWernmost zones after sunset SAT. Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook for SUN features a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for a portion of the FA, and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the remainder of the area. Moisture pooling and low level convergence will be maximized SUN afternoon into SUN night as the cold front approaches. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) peak on the order of 2 and 3/4in with increasing afternoon and evening instability through the weekend. Additionally, while guidance remains mixed, there is a modest signal for low pressure development across the northeastern Gulf. Whether this obtains tropical characteristics or not, it could act to enhance rainfall along the SE coast if it ends up getting pulled north ahead of the above-mentioned upper trough. Not all guidance show this though, as some ensemble members take the low west across the northern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center has increased probs a bit to 30% probability of development over the next 7 days, and it is something we will be monitoring through the weekend and into next week. Tropics aside, deterministic and machine learning guidance continue to show a good signal for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorm potential during this period of active weather. Right now the signal is the strongest on Sunday. Though this could be dependent on lingering convection Sat night and how much destabilization is possible Sun. Given increased forcing from the approaching front and the potential tap of subtropical moisture, heavy rain and some hydro impacts may eventually be realized. Marine Latest surface and buoy observations indicate SE-SW winds 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft. A cold front approaches from the north this afternoon, likely only making it to the Albemarle Sound region, before lifting back into VA tonight. This will lead to a slight wind shift over Nern waters where the winds becoming southeast or east for several hours. Eventually, Serly flow will return for all waters tonight behind the departing boundary. Winds increase to 5-15 kt later this afternoon and tonight with seas building to 2-3 ft. Moderate SSW winds will increase to 20-30 kt Saturday evening, peaking Sat night and early Sunday. Have issued SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) for the nearshore coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Outlook (Saturday night through Wednesday): Over the outer coastal waters, frequent gale-force gusts still look possible for several hours Saturday night into Sunday morning, but less likely. Seas will quickly respond to the winds, building to 4-7ft Saturday night. Elevated winds and seas are expected to last into early next week for the nearshore coastal waters. For the outer waters, elevated winds and seas may last for much of the week. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC... Heat Advisory until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-204-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to noon EDT Sunday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to 8am EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Saturday to 11pm EDT Sunday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154-156-158. |
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