Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers Late. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 413am EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, with the main threat of damaging wind gusts. .KEY MESSAGES... 2) A couple rounds of severe weather possible this weekend. Slight (2/5) risk from Storm Prediction Center today, Marginal (1/5) risk from SPC Sunday. 1) Expecting hot and humid conditions this today and Sunday with highs in the 90s, and heat indices around 100-105 Sat and Sun. 3) Dangerous heat likely mid to late next week heading into the holiday weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1...Multiple shortwaves will transit across the Mid- Atlantic this weekend bringing the potential for a few rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. TODAY This morning, a weak shortwave progresses across the region. Lingering instability east of hwy 17 will continue through the night, and as this shortwave clips NE portions of the CWA (County Warning Area) we could see some showers and thunderstorms from 5-10AM. If tstorms develop, 0-6km bulk shear of 15-20 knots and zonal flow aloft will work against robust convection, but MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 2.2" could result in transient cores dropping and producing gusty winds. In addition, with the weakly veering shear predominantly at the lowest levels and low LCLs a brief waterspout isn't out of the question. Overall threat for severe weather is low, but non-zero this morning. This afternoon sea breeze develops in a hot and humid environment with plenty of instability to play with. Shear however is expected to be meager, 10-15 knots and there really is no upper level support. As a result, some isolated to scattered pulse thunderstorms are possible along the sea breeze today. While overall weak shear precludes sustained updrafts, instability is high enough where brief pulse-severe thunderstorms are possible along the sea breeze. It is worth noting that CAMs are not too excited about convection in the afternoon, suggesting a rain-free afternoon for most. Still, it really won't take much for convection to bubble up today, so maintained a chance of tstorms through the afternoon (20-40%). A third round of convection is looking more and more likely this evening as a shortwave and MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) approaches the region from the west. Current expectation is for a shortwave to approach the region after 20Z, bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances north of hwy 264. These thunderstorms will form in an area of slightly higher 0-6km shear (20-25 kts), allowing for a little bit better updraft maintenance. With deep instability and plenty of moisture still present, strong to low end severe storms would be possible with the storms initiating north of hwy 264 late this afternoon. Following these storms, a more potent MCS approaches the region around sunset. While CAMs have the MCS weakening as it moves through the region, there does seem to be a bias where they underestimate MCS maintenance. Once the MCS moves through, should it keep it's strength, the primary threat would be damaging winds. A point of consideration is with the seabreeze moving through earlier in the day, surface winds will be southerly, veering to southwesterly aloft matching the synoptic flow. This will bring some weak low level helicities into the equation as well, and while probs are low, it will be worth monitoring for a brief spin up. The MCS looks to move through the region through the first half of tonight before finally moving offshore before sunrise. SUNDAY The strongest shortwave looks to impact the area on Sunday ahead of an incoming backdoor cold front. CAMs suggest a MCS moving into the region along the shortwave in the evening in addition to any sea breeze convection developing in the afternoon. With better upper level support and more favorable timing compared to Saturday's MCS, this one has a shot at bringing some damaging winds as well. In fact, NCAR ML severe guidance has higher severe probs on Sunday compared to Saturday, maybe due to the better upper level support. the back door cold front looks to have slowed down a notch, now moving through overnight Sunday. Precip with the shortwave out ahead of it will likely stabilize up a bit, bringing a lower thunderstorm risk along the front. Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2...A WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) regime will persist through this weekend as high pressure becomes centered offshore. This will bring continued SSW winds and increasing low level thicknesses to ENC. Latest guidance continues to show low level thicknesses generally around 1410-1425m which support highs into the low to mid 90s each day. With temps in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s heat indices will likely peak around 100-105 today and Sunday. Will note with an increase in precipitation chances especially Sat/Sun. With a drier trend in CAMs for this afternoon, it is some spots see enough breaks in clouds to reach AppTs of around 105F, but this is not expected to be widespread enough or long enough of a duration to issue any headlines. Sunday will see another day of near heat advisory criteria AppTs, 100-105F thanks to the slower progression of the back door cold front. With lows only getting into the 70s each night this weekend there wont be much relief from the heat. If you have any extended plans outdoors this weekend make sure to stay properly hydrated and take proper precautions when outside. KEY MESSAGE 3...No significant changes to the extended forecast as an omega block sets up across the Eastern CONUS with anomalous ridging persisting across the the midwest and eastern US next week. This will bring the potential for an extended period of dangerous heat to ENC starting around Wednesday next week and continuing into the July 4th weekend. GEFS probs of high temps > 100F have increased slightly to 30-50% for inland locales during this time period. Meanwhile, EPS probs are still near 0% through July 4rd for ENC, with better chances along and west of I-95. NWS probabilistic Heat Risk values of reaching major heat risk levels or higher are currently sitting at about 40-60% on Wed, 70-90% on Thurs, and 80-90% on Fri/Sat which is fairly notable given the higher end values this far out. Those sensitive to heat and anyone planning on spending ample amounts of time outside later next week should continue to monitor the forecast trends as this potential heat wave would have impacts on the holiday weekend. CPC has highlighted the Carolinas in a high risk of extreme heat July 2-4. Marine Moderate to breezy SSW winds will continue today, with potential for a period of 25 kt gusts developing in the afternoon and evening for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound. Issued Small Craft Advisories with this update, although it is more marginal with wind gusts 25-29 knots expected. What gave higher confidence to issue the product was both REFS and HREF ensembles giving a >50% chance for wind gusts over 25 knots in the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) issued regions. In response to the increase in winds this afternoon into tonight, seas along the Gulf Stream are expected to reach 6 ft. Winds lessen a tad Sunday morning, staying SW'rly 15-20 knots with the occasional 25 knot gust possible. Another feature of note is the potential for strong thunderstorms Saturday. In the morning hours this threat will be primarily north of Cape Hatteras, transitioning to inland rivers along the sea breeze in the afternoon, and for all area waters in the evening as a cluster of strong to sever storms moves through from the west. Outlook (Sunday through Wed): Gulf stream showers and thunderstorms possible through Sunday with the shortwave and back door cold front. Winds will eventually shift from the SW to the NE on Sunday and Monday from N to S behind the aforementioned front. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 11pm EDT this evening for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-152. Small Craft Advisory from 2pm this afternoon to 11am EDT Sunday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet)-156. |
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