Marine Weather Net

Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

THU NIGHT

SW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

FRI

W
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ135 Forecast Issued: 658 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
Tonight...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late This Evening And Early Morning. Showers And Tstms Likely Late.
Thu...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms, Mainly In The Morning.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers And Tstms.
Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers Likely. Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716pm EDT Wednesday July 17 2024

Synopsis
Conditions are changing from sultry to rainy as the pattern becomes more unsettled into the weekend. A front will stall over the area late week, coupled with strong dynamics and a very moist atmosphere will likely lead to multiple days of heavy rainfall.

Near Term - Tonight
As of 710pm Wed... Biggest change was to end the heat advisory on this update across ENC as heat indices have fallen well below 100F. Otherwise everything else is tracking well tonight and made minimal changes to the forecast on this update.

Prev Disc...Latest analysis shows waves of low pressure developing along a cold front moving through into the Mid- Atlantic and central Mid-West. Front and upper trough will continue to approach from the west overnight as high pressure slides further offshore. Earlier offshore convection has become more stratiform with scattered showers and storms beginning to slowly blossom along Hwy 17 this afternoon. Seabreeze and differential heating boundaries will continue to aid in convective development this afternoon and early evening, with best chances west of Hwy 17. Overall svr threat still looks low given the weak shear. Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, with chances increasing after midnight. Most CAMs show potential for numerous coastal showers and storms late tonight into Thu morning, as is often seen this time of year aided by the warm Gulf Stream waters. Main concern will be potential for localized flooding. Though any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Lows overnight falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Short Term - Thursday
As of 230pm Wed...Active weather day with potential for localized flash flooding and isolated strong thunderstorms. Upper trough and surface cold front will approach ENC from the west, moving into the favorable right entrance region of the jet combined with anomalously high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values (around 2.25"). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected with best chances along the coast during the morning, then transitioning more inland and becoming more widespread during the afternoon and into the evening. The main threat still looks like heavy rain with the potential for minor flooding to localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch may be needed, but will hold off at this time. Isolated strong thunderstorms will also be possible with bulk shear increasing to 15-25 kt. Mid level lapse rates will remain weak, but depending on early convection and destabilization there is potential for an isolated damaging wind threat in the afternoon and early evening. Clouds and convection should keep things cooler than recent days, with highs generally 85-90 deg.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Sunday
As of 250am Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur each day for the next 7 days with most of the activity occurring in the afternoon and evenings. Heavy rains are expected with forecast 5 day rain totals through the weekend of 3-5" and locally higher amounts possible. We will trade the intense heat for slightly cooler but continued humid weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms each day.

Thursday night through Friday...More certainty for the end of the week as the latest model suite conts to converge on active weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values (Precipitable Water values) return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upper dynamics (ENC in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a 'slight' risk for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a whopping 17 g/kg or higher. Instability goes down a bit Fri (1000-2000 J/Kg), along with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so biggest threat from storms that develop then will be some heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday
Still looks to be cont active with quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet while southerly flow keeps circulating very moist air into the region. NBM cont to indicate likely to categorical probability of precipitation through this whole period, though as is the case with convection, showers and storms will be on and off, so have 40-60% probability of precipitation for the better part of the weekend into early next week until mesoscale details can be resolved, with highest probability of precipitation focused on the diurnal cycle.

Marine
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 230pm Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt across the outer coastal waters, with seas 3-6 ft. Upper trough and surface cold front will approach from the west tonight and Thu. Breezy SW winds 15-25 kt and seas 3-6 ft will continue through the period with cold front to the west. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, Pamlico Sound, Croatan/Roanoke Sounds through Thu morning and into the evening. May be close for Albemarle Sound and Alligator River through tonight, but looks too marginal at this time. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected through period, with best chances over the waters late tonight into Thu morning. Any storm that develops will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 250am Wed...Gradient conts tight with sswrly winds 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt Thu evening, thus SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) cont for the coastal waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. The flow from Fri into Sunday will continue S to SW 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft Fri and 2-4 ft Sat and Sunday. Shower and storm chances will increase through the weekend.

Hydrology
As of 230pm Wed...Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today into the weekend, aided by a stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high PWATs. WPC continues to outlook the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Thu and Fri with qpf storm totals 3-5" forecast through Sat with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and localized flash flooding Thursday and Friday. A Flood Watch may be needed for portions of the area later.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8pm EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 7pm EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10pm EDT Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Thursday for AMZ231.