Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft, Then Around 2 Ft This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Fri...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Rain Likely.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1027am EST Wednesday Jan 29 2020
High pressure will ridge in from the north today and tomorrow, as a coastal trough develops late tomorrow. An area of low pressure will strengthen and move up the East Coast Saturday, with colder high pressure building in behind it. Moderating conditions are expected early next week, as high pressure strengthens to the south.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 1015 AM...Mostly sunny skies this morning with only some semi-opaque broken cirrus coverage along the US Hwy 64/264 corridor. Temps have climbed into the mid to upper 40s at 10 AM, on their way to the lower to mid 50s for most away from the coast. PWAT (Precipitable Water) of about 0.4 inches on the 12Z KMHX sounding, and only very modest moistening aloft expected through the day, justifies a dry forecast.
Previous Discussion...High pressure will be centered over northern New England today, but continue to ridge south over the area. Despite continued N winds, low level heigheights are slightly higher today than yesterday, which should allow for a modest bump in temps. Have highs reaching the mid to upper 50s over southern NC, and upper 40s to low 50s to the north and east. Skies should remain mostly sunny until late in the day when clouds spill into the region from the west associated with an area of low pressure which will move well to the south of NC.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Thursday
As of 635am Wed...Not much change tonight, with high pressure still ridging in from the north. As the low pressure system passes to the south, off the Florida coast, skies will become mostly cloudy across the southern half of the area, while further north, it should remain mostly clear. Low temps will vary depending on where the cloud line sets up, with temps remaining in the upper 30s to low 40s where it's mostly cloudy, and where skies are clear temps will drop into the low to mid 30s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 3am Wed...A fast moving area of low pressure will move south of the region Thursday producing isolated light coastal showers. A stronger area of low pressure is expected to impact the region Friday into this weekend. High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into early next week.
Thursday and Thursday Night...A strong mid-level shortwave will dive south across the Carolinas Thursday, inducing cyclogenesis well south of the area off the SE coast. High res guidance has backed off on shower chances along the coast Thu, while the global models keep the chance for light precip. Will keep a sc mention along the immediate coast, though expect most areas to remain dry. Low level thickness values keep temps near to a few degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight lows dropping into the 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the beaches.
Friday through Sunday
Strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening surface low pressure is forecast to lift along the NC coast. Still some uncertainty with exact track and strength of the low, but models seem to be coming into better agreement. The GFS is still slightly closer to the coast than the EC or NAM but a bit stronger. There is still the potential for locally heavy rain, strong winds along the coast and minor soundside water level rises along the Outer Banks this weekend. Forecast confidence is increasing that widespread moderate to locally heavy rain will develop across the area Fri night into early Sat morning, with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amts 0.5-1" with some higher amounts possible. Continued to increase probability of precipitation Fri afternoon into early Sat morning, but will cap at likely for now. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in for Saturday given the uncertainty but may it end up being mostly dry, esp during the afternoon, with only widely scattered showers depending on track and timing of the low and associated "dry slot". A period of strong WNW winds is possible on the backside of the low along the coast late Saturday night into the first part of Sunday. This could lead to minor water level rises on the sound side of the Outer Banks and low water across the inland rivers. Though right now it looks like the duration of the strongest winds may be less than 12hrs which would likely limit the water level impacts. The low should strengthen and race away from the area late Sat and Sunday, with high pressure and upper ridge building in. Mild temps expected this weekend with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s inland to mid 40s along the beaches.
Monday through Wednesday...High pressure will build over the area from the SW Sunday night and Monday. The high will shift off the coast Monday night ahead of next approaching frontal system. Monday looks like a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and above normal temps. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Temps will continue to gradually warm Tuesday and Wed, above climo with highs in the 60s. Slight chances of showers return Tuesday and Wed, though guidance is now trending a bit drier for Tue.
Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 645am Wed...Decent boating conditions expected today, with winds out of the N/NE around 10-15 kts and seas 2-4 ft. Winds will strengthen tonight as the pressure gradient tightens, becoming N at 15-20 kts, with seas increasing to 3-5 ft. There could be a few gusts 25 kts or greater, but conditions will predominately stay below Small Craft criteria into tomorrow morning.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
As of 3am Wed...Strong winds and elevated seas are likely this weekend.
Moderate N/NE flow 15-20 kt is expected Thu into Thu night with seas 3-5 ft. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. The N/NE winds diminish a bit Fri 10-15 kt, and will continue seas 3-5 ft with persistent NE fetch.
Forecast confidence is below normal this weekend, mainly Fri evening into Sat morning. A strong mid-level shortwave trough will dive across the Southeast and Southern Atlantic Coast Friday night into Saturday, as strengthening surface low pressure is forecast to lift near the NC coast. The low will race away from the NC coast late Sat into Sun. Still some uncertainty with exact track and strength of the low, the GFS continues to move it right along the NC coast while the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is a bit weaker and keeps it just offshore. Exact wind speeds and seas will be very dependent on exact track and strength of the surface low. Will continue to indicate strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) level westerly winds (20-30 kt) beginning Saturday night through mid day Sunday. There will be potential for Gale force winds, with best chances on the backside of the low Saturday night into Sunday morning. Though the GFS and NAM both show a brief period of gale force winds Fri night into Sat morning. Will show SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas developing Fri night, but could build to 6 ft as early as Fri evening. With offshore flow seas should peak at 5-10 ft Sat night into Sunday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories