Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Overnight...Ne Winds 35 To 40 Kt With Gusts Up To 50 Kt. Waves 4 To 6 Ft. Rain.|
|Sun...N Winds 30 To 35 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Rain.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 45 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Rain, Mainly In The Evening.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Mon Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Evening.|
|Tue...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft, Then 1 Ft.|
|Thu...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft, Then 2 To 3 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1211am EST Sunday Nov 17 2019
Strong low pressure to the south will slowly move east-northeast and further offshore through Monday. A mainly dry cold front will push through Tuesday with high pressure building into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front with limited moisture will push through late in the week.
.NEAR TERM /Overnight/... As of 1210am Sun...Have dropped all wind adv and high wind warnings for all but OBX zones, as winds have already peaked this evening, and will remain steady then slowly diminish through Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will still gust above 55-60 mph at times on the OBX so wind headlines look good there.
Prev As of 10pm Sat...Primary change with the late evening update was to increase POPs to 100% along the Crystal Coast and southern OBX through the overnight hours as an upper level wave pivoting around the north side of the stacked and strengthening low brings increased lift and stratiform rainfall coverage to eastern NC. Still, instability remains off the coast, and rainfall rates are not expected to be high enough for any significant flash flood rain threat. Rainfall amounts taper inland with less than 1 inch expected deep inland. The pressure gradient between the deepening low and high pressure to the N will remain tight keeping winds strong over the region. Will maintain all wind headlines. See Tide and Coastal Flooding section below for details on that threat.
.SHORT TERM /Sunday/... As of 230pm Saturday...The low will gradient slide further east on Sunday with rain tapering off from W to E thru the day. Winds will remain quite strong but decrease slowly as well later in the day. The N flow and clouds will keep temps cool with upper 40s/low 50s inland...bit warmer OBX with upper 50s/around 60.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3pm Saturday...Stacked low pressure off the NC coast lifts north Sunday night with conditions gradually improving through the night. A shortwave moving through the broad upper trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS pushes across the region Monday which may trigger additional showers during the day but guidance is mixed whether low level moisture is deep enough to produce precipitation so have limited Probability of Precipitation to slight chance at this time. If precipitation does occur, qpf will be light. Another trough pivots across the area Tue, but again moisture look limited with even dryer sub-cloud layer so precipitation chances look even lower than Mon. Cool high pressure builds in Wednesday and Thu with dry conditions and light winds prevailing. The high moves offshore Thu night into Fri with another frontal system approaching from the NW. Guidance is still not in best agreement with timing or available moisture so have limited Probability of Precipitation to slight chance. Temps will be below normal much of the week, generally with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland and the low to mid 50s along the coast. Temps will warm to near normal late in the week in SW flow ahead of the approaching frontal system with highs in the low to mid 60s Thu and Fri.
Short Term /Through Sunday/... As of 1210am Sun...Have dropped storm warnings for all but southern waters, as winds have already peaked and have diminished below 50 kt for rest of the area. Replaced the storm warnings with gale warnings, and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for Pamlico River.
Prev discussion...As of 1030pm Sat...Very dangerous marine conditions continue. Deepening low pressure will drift ENE to the S of region through period. Very tight pressure grdnt will cont between the low and high pressure to the N. NNE winds 30 to 40 kts expected with gusts 45 to 55 kt...highest outer cstl waters. Will cont all current Storm/Gale warnings. Winds will begin to decrease later Sunday with dir becoming more NNW as low slowly departs. Seas have already reach 15 to 20 ft central and N and will build a bit with seas mainly 17 to 22 ft central and N tonight and 9 to 17 feet S. Seas will remain quite high Sunday possible dropping a foot or two later in the day.
Long Term - Sunday night through Thursday: As of 4pm Sat...Strong SCA (Small Craft Advisory) to Gales Sunday evening slowly diminishes through the night into Monday morning to around 10-15 kt by Monday afternoon. Seas continue around 10-17 ft Sunday evening slowly subsides trough mid week. It may be sometime Tuesday before seas drop below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria. NW winds expected to surge back to around 15-20 kt Wednesday as a trough pushes across the area, then backs to SW around 5-15 kt Thu ahead of an approach cold front. Seas around 3-5 ft Wednesday subsides to around 2-4 ft Thu.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 10pm Sat...Moderate to Major coastal flooding is ongoing across portions of the lower Neuse River and southern Pamlico Sound, with reports of up to 3 ft of inundation above normally dry ground. Additionally, this evening's high tide has brought about significant overwash along several portions of Hatteras Island north of Cape Hatteras.
Strong winds out of the north and northeast will continue through Sunday, with additional water level rises expected. Impacts include potential flooding of roads...homes and businesses in close proximity to the waterfront. There is also a threat of some flooding over areas adjacent to the southern Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. There is lower confidence of some soundside flooding over Southern Hatteras Island, Ocracoke Island as winds will need to turn a bit more to the NNW to NW for this to occur.
In some areas on the oceanfront north of Cape Hatteras, battering waves with significant wave runup will cause damage to property. Numerous roads will be impassable under several feet of water and vehicles could be submerged. Some neighborhoods will be isolated and some areas may need to be evacuated. Portions of NC 12 will likely become inundated and impassible. At this time the most significant overwash is forecast to occur with the high tide late Sunday morning.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1am EST Monday for NCZ046-047- 080-081. Coastal Flood Warning until 1am EST Monday for NCZ094-194-196- 203>205. High Wind Warning until 5pm EST this afternoon for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 1pm EST Monday for NCZ196-203>205.
Small Craft Advisory until 1am EST Monday for AMZ136. Gale Warning until 1am EST Monday for AMZ131-137-230. Gale Warning until 4am EST Monday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-231. Gale Warning until 7am EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154. Storm Warning until 10am EST this morning for AMZ156-158.