Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
20 - 25
10 - 15
10 - 15
10 - 15
10 - 15
20 - 25
|Today...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Rain Likely Early This Morning.|
|Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft.|
|Fri...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming Nw 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Waves 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft After Midnight. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon, Then Becoming Ne In The Evening, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Then 1 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
429am EDT Wednesday Mar 29 2023
Strengthening low pressure off the coast will continue to pull away from ENC today ending the rain threat this morning. High pressure then builds in from the north and west while a weak and dry cold front tracks southwards across the area Thursday morning. High pressure slides offshore Friday. A strong cold front will impact the area Saturday. High pressure once again builds into the Eastern CONUS early next week.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 330am Wed... Current surface analysis shows a stalled boundary along the SC/NC border with a strengthening low off our coast which has begun to pull away from the area this morning. This has kept N'rly winds gusty along the immediate coast overnight with much lighter winds found further inland. Ongoing light to moderate rain continues across the region as a s/w trough makes its way offshore, though rain has become more showery in nature across our western zones as forcing weakens and drier air slowly makes its way into the area from the west. Held on to Schc/Chc POP's along the coast and OBX to account for a brief shower or two this morning with latest MOS guidance suggesting a slightly later end time before all precipitation pushes off the coast. Even after the rain ends, clouds will stick around through the morning as low level moisture remains in place. Dry air finally overspreads the region from the west this afternoon allowing for clouds to dissipate resulting in partly sunny skies by this evening. As the previously mentioned low pulls away high pressure will slowly build in from the north and west keeping winds N'rly but much lighter in nature while highs get into the mid to upper 50s as cloud cover and weak Cold Air Advection limit heating today.
Short Term - Tonight
As of 330am Wed... Skies continue to clear overnight as high pressure ridging builds overhead and dry/stable airmass encompasses the FA. Normally this would allow for a great radiational cooling night as we would expect clear skies and light winds across the region. However, a dry and weak cold front will be approaching from the N allowing winds to remain elevated just enough to preclude this from happening. Winds may start out light and variable to begins the evening but then become more N'rly around daybreak. Lows get into the upper 30s to low 40s across the region given the clear skies but will note we may get slightly lower if winds remain lighter than currently expected.
Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday
As of 4am Wed...Generally settled weather Wednesday through Friday with a warming trend. Saturday could bring scattered convection ahead of an approaching cold front, with severe potential requiring monitoring. Quiet weather returns early next week.
Thursday And Friday
A weak backdoor front-like feature will cross the area Thursday morning as reinforcing high pressure builds in strong from the north. This feature will move overhead Thursday night, then offshore Friday, prompting surface return flow/WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) to increase through the day, with an elevated warm front possibly crossing the area later Friday. Dry conditions and ample sunshine prevails Thursday into Friday, with cloud cover beginning to increase with low level moisture advection Friday afternoon/evening. Temps near to a few degrees below normal Thursday, then several degrees above normal Friday.
Saturday...Robust stacked low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada will prompt a cold front to approach from the west Saturday, crossing the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There is increasing confidence that a very strong S/SW LLJ will slide over ENC early Saturday morning, persisting into Saturday night. Deep mixing and strong/gusty winds will occur Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possibly across much of the area, and Wind Advisories potentially needed.
It is still uncertain whether there will be enough combination of lift and moisture present simultaneously to generate substantial rainfall coverage ahead of the approaching front, but at least scattered showers/storms in the main pre-frontal moisture band Saturday into Saturday evening justifies continued chance POPs. Moisture wanes later Sunday night ahead of the actual front, and the actual frontal passage continues to look mostly dry. It is worth noting that, given the very strong LLJ, and convective elements that do form will have in increased threat of damaging wind gusts, with the tornado threat limited by the expected very deep mixing.
Sunday through Wednesday...Zonal flow aloft slowly trends to ridging Sunday through the early part of next week, with surface high pressure building in from the west behind the cold front Sunday, passing overhead/nearby Sunday night, the setting up off the coast early next week. Expect dry conditions with temps trending from near normal Sunday to above normal for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A general weakness in the ridge north of the area could bring rain chances back into the forecast by the middle of next week, but with no significant hazards are apparent at this time.
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/... As anticipated tightening of the gradient overnight has allowed for gale force gusts to begin along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with small craft conditions across our inland rivers and sounds. Though small craft criteria currently has not been reached across our N'rn waters this evening the expectation is for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria to be met shortly. Given this, have kept all ongoing SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) and Gales in place for now though the concern is that the winds have not been as high as expected and could cancel the small craft advisories along our N'rn waters, Albemarle/Roanoke/Croatan Sounds earlier than expected. Conditions will improve from W-E as the day goes on today as strong low pressure pulls away from the region and high pressure ridge builds in from the N and W with gales ending around 14Z and small craft conditions ending across all waters by tonight. 5-9 ft seas along our coastal waters will lower closer to 3-6 ft by this afternoon and then down to 2-5 ft by tonight.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... As of 4am Wed...High pressure building in from the west will keep mainly moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas in place Thursday into Friday. Southerly LLJ develops later Friday/Friday night, beginning a period of strong/gusty S to SW winds through Saturday evening that will likely necessitate Gale Warnings across most waters, and bringing seas peaking around 8-12 ft. Improving marine conditions then expected Sunday through early next week.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 4am Wed...Strong/gusty S to SW winds expected early Saturday through Saturday evening will likely pile water up across the northern Pamlico Sound. At least minor flooding is possible for at least soundside Nags Head and Roanoke Island Saturday and Saturday night. Additionally, strong swell/beach erosion and some elevated water levels are expected for the beaches south of Cape Hatteras Saturday and Saturday night, though exact details and the extent of impacts remain uncertain.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT this morning for AMZ136- 137. Small Craft Advisory until 2pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 3pm to 4pm EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 10am EDT this morning for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154-156- 158.