Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt In The Evening. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft.|
|Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft.|
|Sun...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening, Then Showers Likely After Midnight.|
|Mon...S Winds 30 To 40 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Showers Likely.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
404pm EDT Thu April 9 2020
A cold front will sweep off the coast this evening. Cool high pressure will build over the eastern United States Friday and Saturday. A strong area of low pressure will push a warm front across the area Sunday into Monday, followed by another cold front approaching the coast by the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
As of 345pm Thu...Eastern CONUS finds itself under broad cyclonic flow aloft with pronounced shortwave trough diving out of the Upper Midwest expected to cross the Carolinas tomorrow morning. At the surface, deepening low pressure over New England is lifting north dragging a cold front across North Carolina with the front approaching Raleigh and high pressure building in its wake.
Comparatively quiet evening expected as front sweeps offshore tonight and drier air quickly advects in behind, added by downsloping northwesterly flow. Dew points are expected to fall quickly into the 30s tonight with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s as low-level thicknesses fall, especially late overnight as aforementioned shortwave approaches and 850 mb CAA intensifies with more northwesterly flow. With such a dry airmass in place no fog is expected.
Short Term - Friday
As of 350pm Thu...Upper trough axis will cross the region midday while at the surface, high pressure continues to meander eastward towards the Carolinas with a much more mild day expected. Some increased cloud cover is expected for southern zones with mid and high level moisture increasing in association with a quick moving disturbance impacting the Gulf states. Low level thicknesses fall to a minimum of ~1325 m for Friday favoring highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Main concern tomorrow will be increased fire danger as dew points fall well into the 20s with RHs dipping to 20-25 percent for all areas except immediate coastal locales. Additionally, another breezy day is expected especially with good mixing of ~30 kt low-level flow to the surface with gusts up to 25 kts or higher possible. Further statements are likely tonight or tomorrow.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Thursday
As of 330pm Thu...Continental high pressure brings drier and cooler conditions Friday and Saturday. The next storm system will impact the area Sunday into Monday with significant forecast uncertainty thereafter.
Friday through Saturday...The high passes just to our south Friday night, prompting most areas away from the coast and south of the US Hwy 264 corridor to decouple and radiate very efficiently through the night. This setup justifies favoring the coldest guidance, which indicates that lows will be in the mid- 30s for much of the area away from the beaches, with lower 30s expected for open, inland areas south and west of the Neuse River. A freeze warning may be needed for at least this area, and potentially the rest of the inner coastal plain as well.
The high will slide offshore Saturday, allowing temps to begin to moderate. Still, below normal temps expected given that limited low level advection keeps the airmass fairly unchanged.
Sunday through Monday...A strong shortwave over the southern Plains will lift toward the Great Lakes, eventually being absorbed into a developing cutoff low Sunday into Monday. The attendant surface low lifts from the Tennessee Valley across the Midwest, bringing a warm front across eastern NC Sunday and introducing POPs back into the forecast. However, the best warm air advection does not get going until Sunday night into Monday morning, when the gradient tightens locally and a notably strong 50-60 kt LLJ moves over the area, bringing very strong low level theta-e advection. Despite the unfavorable diurnal timing, instability will quickly climb to 1000-1500+ J/kg, and showers with some embedded thunderstorms are likely Monday morning. Strong gradient winds are expected along the coast, with gusty/damaging winds in the strongest storms possible across the entire area as ample low level shear could allow for convection to become organized. Some variability regarding timing remains between long range guidance members, and the severe threat will be further refined in subsequent forecasts. Heavy rainfall is also possible at times, though individual storms should be progressive enough to preclude a widespread flash flooding threat.
A cold front will cross the area later Monday, signaling an end to POPs and ushering in a cooler and drier airmass.
Tuesday through Thursday...The aforementioned cold front stalls offshore Tuesday, with high pressure bringing drier conditions and temps within several degrees of normal. Forecast confidence is low as we move into the middle of next week, but guidance indicates the potential for a wave to develop within the front, potentially riding up the coast, bringing unsettled conditions Wednesday.
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/... As of 400pm Thu...SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions gradually overspreading the waters this afternoon as cold front rapidly approaches from the west. Seas are only 2 to 4 feet for now but southwest to west flow of 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kt over the coastal waters. Winds will veer northwesterly behind the front at a similar intensity by Friday morning with approaching upper level trough. Biggest change to the forecast this afternoon was to extend SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) per latest model guidance and to add the Pamlico/Pungo rivers for tomorrow with expected channeling in west- northwesterly surface flow. Seas will build to a maximum of 5-6 feet over the outer waters late Friday.
Long Term /Friday night through Monday/... As of 335pm Thu...Winds diminish by Saturday morning as the high passes just south of the area. Light winds gradually become southerly Saturday as the high pushes offshore. Winds increase through the day Sunday before becoming strong Sunday night into Monday as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Solid Gales expected Monday morning, with a period of storm force winds possible mainly for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound during the day Monday.
Offshore flow will keep seas around 2-4 ft Saturday, with sea subsiding further Saturday night. Then, Sunday, marine conditions begin to diminish as southerly winds increase, with very dangerous and large seas emerging Sunday night into Monday as Gale to Storm force winds develop. Seas are expected to peak around 15-20+ ft Monday afternoon.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
As of 405pm Thu...A perigean spring tide will bring elevated tidal levels tonight through the end of the week. Minor inundation of very low lying areas is possible around the times of primarily the evening high tide cycles, especially near inlets and along the beaches south.
Then, a strong frontal system will impact the area Sunday into Monday. Strong southerly winds with this system could bring coastal flooding issues along the northern shores of the larger sounds and bring large surf and the potential for beach erosion to beaches mainly south of Cape Hatteras Monday morning.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7pm this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ195-196-199-203.
Small Craft Advisory from 11am to 8pm EDT Friday for AMZ136. Small Craft Advisory from 8am Friday to 5am EDT Saturday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 8am Friday to 2am EDT Saturday for AMZ230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 5am EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2am Friday to 5am EDT Saturday for AMZ150.