Marine Weather Net

Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast


TODAY

W
WINDS
5 - 10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
10
KNOTS

SAT

NW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SAT NIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ135 Forecast Issued: 724 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Today...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Areas Of Fog Early This Morning. A Chance Of Showers Until Late Afternoon, Then A Slight Chance Of Showers Late.
Tonight...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sat Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Evening, Then 1 Ft.
Sun...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely.
Mon...S Winds 25 To 35 Kt, Becoming Sw 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 3 To 5 Ft. Showers.
Tue...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
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724 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will pass to the north this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
618am EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Synopsis
A weak cold front will cross the area today. High pressure will pass to the north this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 615am Fri...Sct convection conts to move quickly ENE across southern tier. High res models cont to struggle with this precip, but most show area expanding a bit further N thru midday so will cont that trend. Fog has overspread the deep inland areas and conts gradient push E. Vsbys occasionally drop to 1/4 mile but mainly holding a bit higher so not planning Dense Fog Advry. The fog will gradient diminish mid to late morn.

Prev disc...Decent cvrg of rain shower and isolated thunderstorms with rain over southern coast ahead of approaching short wave and weak cold front. Confidence is rather low for precipitation cvrg thru mid day with hrrr not showing current activity. Bulk of models show another batch of rain shower crossing thru morn especially southern tier so will keep higher chance probability of precipitation these areas. As short wave and front push offshore rain shower should gradient end this afternoon. Lack of obs coming in making it difficult to track fog and low clouds...does appear on satl area of low clouds and fog is to the W and should eventually spread E into the region thru daybreak. Models suggest low clouds will linger thru much of the morn and lift this afternoon. Cont mild with highs upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Saturday
As of 225am Fri...Front will push further offshore as high pressure builds in from the W. Not expecting any precipitation but decent cvrg of clouds will cont much of the night. Weak caa will lead to lows ranging from mid/upper 40s well inland to mid 50s most beaches.

Long Term - Saturday Through Thursday
As of 230am Fri...High pressure builds in for the weekend before a very strong cold front brings heavy rain Monday. Behind the front, a much colder airmass will take hold midweek.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds in from the west to provide seasonable weather for the weekend. Weak Nrly flow on Saturday will provide some cold air advection, limiting highs to the mid-60s. Winds turn more Erly Sunday as the high begins to slip off the Mid- Atlantic coast, keeping afternoon temps limited to the low-to-mid 60s.

Sunday night through Monday...A vigorous mid-level trough will dig across the central US, developing a strong mid-latitude cyclone over the Southeastern US that will march towards the Northeast before becoming cut-off around the US/Canadian border. An associated robust cold front will push through our region during this time, providing for a very wet end to the month with bounteous moisture in place. Latest guidance shows PWAT (Precipitable Water) values over 1.5", exceeding the daily climo max. Widespread heavy rainfall is expected early Monday morning through the afternoon. Additionally, MUCAPE values over 500 J/kg for the southern coastline suggest the possibility of a few iso to scattered tstorms. Too soon at this point for specifics on severe weather threat, but with modest shear overhead, can't rule out a stronger tstorm moving ashore the Crystal Coast and Southern OBX. Cold front will push offshore overnight Monday, taking the precipitation with it, but ushering much colder air in its wake.

Tuesday thru Thursday...High pressure will slowly build across the southern US behind the cold front. Cold airmass will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday with 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C below normal. A spotty coastal shower in the OBX area possible Tuesday, but otherwise dry and cold. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 40s and low-50s inland to mid- 50s along the coast. Lows inland at night will likely drop below freezing. Weak warm air advection will return Thu and raise afternoon temps into the 50s inland to around 60 along the coast.

Marine
Short Term Through Tonight
As of 615am Fri...Put up Dense Fog Advisory for Albemarle Sound and Pamlico River areas where visibilities likely less than 1 mile. Will monitor satl and obs for possible expansion to other zones thru mid morn.

Prev disc...Winds expected to be light W this morn ahead of the front then become NW late as front crosses. As the front moves further offshore tonight winds become NNW 5 to 15 kts. Seas will be in the 2 to 4 foot range thru the period, highest outer central and southern waters.

Long Term /Sat through Tuesday/... As of 245am Fri...Decent boating conditions thru Sunday with light NW winds 5-15 kts Sat becoming E by Sun. Seas will be a general 2-4 ft.

Marine conditions dramatically decline Sunday night as a strong cold front is set to push through the region Monday. Gale conditions likely as winds turn S ahead of the front Sunday night and ramp up to 25-35 kts with gusts 40+ kts and seas over 10 ft Monday. Heavy rain also expected with a few strong storms possible. Behind the front, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday with gusty WSW winds 20-30 kts and waves 6-9 ft.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9am EST this morning for AMZ131-136- 230.