Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
| Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...Sw Winds Around 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Becoming Nw 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt Late In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sun...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...S Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Mon Night...W Winds Around 15 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. Rain Likely. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 727pm EDT Wednesday Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased winds for Eastern Pamlico Sound through tonight. Forecast trending drier tomorrow morning. Marine...Gale Warnings and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) advisories issued for area waters tomorrow afternoon and evening. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front on Thursday will bring gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms - some which could be strong. Low probability (10-20%) of flurries tomorrow evening. 2) Temperatures rebound this weekend ahead of a strong cold front early next week Marine...Confidence is increasing for a strong cold front to bring hazardous marine conditions to the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 1...As a potent upper level shortwave moves east through the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, a strong cold front will track across ENC and bring gusty winds, widespread rain, and a few thunderstorms. Given that the FROPA is expected to reach the area ahead of peak heating, instability will be limited - the HREF average SBCAPE is under 500 J/kg, but a worst case scenario could see values closer to 750 J/kg in more robust pre-frontal warming. SRH and deep layer shear, on the other hand, will be plentiful with average forecast 0-6 km shear in excess of 50-55 kt. While this high shear/low CAPE environment is not a slam dunk for severe storms, there's still a non-zero risk of a few strong gusts north of 50 mph. Hodographs to not appear very favorable for tornadoes, but a brief tornado is not out of the question in mesoscale boundary interactions. The most likely scenario is widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Of note, a small minority of guidance (WRF ARW and NSSL) is showing a brief changeover to winter precipitation tomorrow evening on the backside of the front. In regimes where cold air is chasing the moisture, forecasts for winter precipitation is usually too aggressive. For now, our forecast calls for all rain but trends will continue to be monitored overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...We'll still be warmer than average behind tomorrow's front, but we'll feel a notable drop in temperatures with a change as high as 10F/hr immediately behind the front. Friday will reach the low/mid 60s and we'll rebound to the mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday and Monday. A deep upper level trough will dig across the CONUS late this weekend and reach the East Coast by early next week. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the area late Monday/early Tuesday. This system will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Monday night with a slightly stronger signal for severe thunderstorms than Thursday's front. A significantly cooler airmass will build in behind this front with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday forecast to be in the 40s and 50s. Marine Update: Have inc swrly winds through tonight, as a very anomalously warm Pamlico sound with sst in the upper 60s to low 70s allowing for well mixed bndry layer and gusts of at or above 25 kt expected to continue through tonight and into Thuam ahead of appraching cold front. Seas will build to 4-6 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 4-7 ft to the south. Early tomorrow afternoon, a cold front will move across the area and veer the winds to the north-northwest. The post- frontal north- northwesterly winds will surge to 25-30+ kt with gusts to 35 kt, which will peak tomorrow afternoon/evening. In response, seas will build to 4-8 ft. Gale Warnings have been posted for all offshore waters and the Pamlico Sound. Predominantly SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will prevail over remaining sounds and waters. For the Albemarle, Croatan and Roanoke sounds, a short jump of winds up to 35 kt are possible in the immediate hour following frontal passage. Additionally, the cold front will be accompanied by a risk of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening, the strongest of which may produce enhanced wind gusts and brief waterspouts. Outlook: Winds and seas will lay down Friday and Saturday with more benign marine conditions expected. Winds and seas will rebuild Sunday into Monday associated with the next strong cold front. Climate Record High temps for 3/11 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 86/2015 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1982 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 83/2016 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 83/1974 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 84/2000,2015 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 86/2015 (NCA ASOS) NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1pm to 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ131- 136-137-230-231. Gale Warning from 3pm to 8pm EDT Thursday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound)-150. Gale Warning from 3pm to 11pm EDT Thursday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154- 156-158. |
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