Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Today...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 10 To 15 Kt This Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft This Afternoon. Isolated Showers Early This Morning, Then Scattered Showers Late This Morning. Isolated Showers Early This Afternoon. Areas Of This Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less This Afternoon.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Patchy Fog. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less.|
|Mon...Sw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Ft. Patchy Fog In The Morning. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 Nm Or Less In The Morning.|
|Mon Night...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...E Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.|
|Wed...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. Rain Likely, Then A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft, Then 1 Ft.|
| 101 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 |
Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters - AMZ100
A warm front will stall to the north of the area through Sunday then push back south through the region as a cold front on Monday. High pressure will pass to the north Tuesday followed by possible low pressure moving through the middle of next week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100am EST Sunday Feb 28 2021
A front will stall to the north of the area through Sunday then push back south through the region on Monday. High pressure will pass to the north Tuesday followed by possible low pressure moving through the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... As of 1am Sun...Inc probability of precipitation late tonight into early Sun, as lingering surface bndry will interact with weak shortwave energy traversing NC. This will produce scattered covg of showers breaking out prior to sunrise, and lift north and east through the morning hours. Also, did not hit fog as hard due to the expected inc in showers and stratus deck.
Prev As of 930pm Saturday...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for evening update. A beautiful afternoon across our area with mostly sunny skies and mild weather. Temps will remain mild overnight will lows holding in the upper 40s and 50s. Dewpoints now are in the low to upper 50s. With overnight lows cooling back toward those values, and our recent rains, areas of fog are likely areawide. Initially fog will be most likely inland where we cool off the fastest. Some sea fog is also eventually likely with our moist southwest flow off the cooler ocean shelf waters.
A weak boundary between the warm air over us now, and slightly cooler air toward Raleigh may act as a trigger for some isolated showers toward daybreak. We continued to show slight chances for rain after 09Z to account for this with Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts remaining light in areas of fog, drizzle or a light shower.
Short Term - Monday
As of 315pm Saturday...The day may start off rather grey, with a combination of low clouds, fog and light showers or drizzle. The boundary mentioned above may act to focus better chances for showers near the Pamlico Sound. Much like today clouds and fog will burn off by mid morning and this will lead to a mainly dry and increasingly sunny day. The exception may be along the immediate coast where sea fog is possible through afternoon. Highs will range from near 80 inland, to 60s along the coast with a prevailing cool southwest.
Long Term - Monday Night Through Saturday
As of 330am Sat...A very warm and dry start to the period this weekend, then rain to begin the work week as a cold front pushes through, followed by brief high pressure Tuesday, and more rain by mid week as a low pressure area moves through, then dry again late week with another high building in.
Sunday...A very warm and mainly dry forecast on tap as upper ridging envelops the sern CONUS. 582 dm heigheights translate to highs 75-80 Sun. Temps near the coast will naturally be much cooler due to the still cold water temps, so will remain in the 60s. Cannot rule out bouts of sea fog near the Crystal Coast and parts of Pamlico/Albemarle Sounds through the weekend, as warm and moist air flows over the cold shelf waters. Have continued only small probability of precipitation for Sunday, as shower chances very slim due to the upper ridging in place and frontal boundary still residing north of the VA/NC border.
Monday...Next good rain chance arrives to start the work week, as model guid continues in good agreement on next progressive shortwave swinging through the Mid Atlantic and northeast, pushing the aforementioned stalled frontal bndry to the north, southward through ENC. Cont categorical probability of precipitation on Monday due to the good agreement amongst 27/00Z global model suite. Rain quickly ends by the evening as dry air rushes in behind the front with cooler high pressure building in.
Tuesday...Good agreement that transitory high pressure will be passing through the Mid Atlantic, bringing cool, dry, and sunny weather to the region. Have taken out all mention of rain as a result. High temps below climo, only in the 45-50 degree range with brisk nne winds, esp near the coast.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Slightly better model agreement on upper pattern by midweek, as most models indicate next shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners region early in the week, passing through the TN Valley on Tue, and then through the sern CONUS mid week. 27/00Z ECM/CMC/UKMET all in agreement on this soln, and bring decent rain chances late Tuesday night and esp Wed. Still some disagreement on position of surface low, and whether it remains suppressed to the south, or rides through the Carolinas. A southerly soln would keep best covg of rain to the south of ENC, but fairly decent clustering amongst ECM ens members on a further north trajectory warrant continued high chance pops, in the 40-50% range. Temps near climo this period, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows 35-45.
Thursday through Friday...Drying expected as another high pres area builds in on progressive quasi zonal flow. Temps appear to be near climo due to the zonal pattern, with highs in the 55-65 degree range, and lows generally 40-45.
Short Term - Through Sunday: As of 930pm Saturday...Seas have subsided below 6 ft, and dropped the SCA. Sea fog remains the biggest boating concern through the next 24 hours.
Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 3-5 ft, which continues overnight. With a moist southwest flow through tonight, areas of locally dense sea fog will become more likely through the night. May need a marine DFA late tonight into Sunday.
Southwest winds Sunday of 10 to 15 knots early will increase by late afternoon as the pressure gradient increases ahead of our next front. Some gusts to 25 kts possible by evening especially over the Pamlico Sound and central waters.
Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 330am Sat...Generally poor boating conditions through the long term as several low pressure systems and fronts impact the waters and sounds. Winds remain swrly but may inc a bit to 15-25 and SCA (Small Craft Advisory) likely needed Sunday night ahead of next cold front that pushes through on Mon. Winds turn N to NE Monday night into Tuesday and remain in the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) range as decent cold air surge pushes into E NC. Periods of sea fog possibly continuing into Monday morning as sw winds bring warm and moist airmass over cold waters.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories