Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Slight Chance Of Showers Until Early Morning.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 25 Kt In The Morning. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Thu Night...Ne Winds Around 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Fri...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
|Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
751pm EDT Monday September 25 2023
A weak cold front will cross the area today, and offshore by tonight. High pressure then moves in for much of the upcoming week, with coastal troughing developing offshore.
Near Term - Until 6am Tuesday Morning
As of 745pm Mon...Dry conditions prevail tonight as surface front sits stalled from Hatteras to New Bern per local observations. Fog prospects have waned a bit tonight with steady cirrus coverage expected aloft. With any clearing some patchy fog development will once again be possible, but guidance is leaning more towards post-frontal low stratus, especially once the front clears the entire CWA (County Warning Area) just after midnight.
Short Term - 6am Tuesday Morning Through 6pm Tuesday
As of 3:40pm Monday...The pressure gradient over ENC will tighten as we become wedged between these two systems, which will cause a surge of northeasterly flow and create a cold air damming scenario. As the cool northeast winds flow into the Carolinas, the cooler air will build up against the Appalachians and spread east towards the coast causing cooler temps, increased cloud cover, and high potential for low stratus lasting through the period. Highs will be in the mid 70s across most of the CWA tomorrow with our southern counties reaching near 80. Slight chance Probability of Precipitation are restricted to mainly east of HWY 17 with the best chance for a shower being in the northeast corner of the FA.
Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Monday
As of 330pm Mon...Strong northeasterly winds are expected to bring marine impacts through Monday. Brief showers are possible along the coast, with drier conditions inland through Monday.
Tuesday Night into Wed...A strong high pressure digs down from the north, resulting in a cold air damming setup. This high, combined with the low pressure off the NC coast will result in a strong pressure gradient allowing NE'rly winds to strengthen. Widespread low ceiling cloud cover is expected, accompanied by a chance for showers east of Hwy 17. Temps will be slightly below average due to the cold air dam in place.
Thursday into Early Next Week
The cold air damming is expected to persist until the weekend, resulting in lingering cloud cover, light coastal precip, below average temps, and northeasterly winds. An upper level trough moves through Eastern NC early into the weekend, eroding the cold air damming setup. Once the trough passes, strong subsidence aloft will decrease precipitation chances and decrease sky cover as the weekend progresses, with the strong northeasterly winds dying down as we get into Monday.
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 3:40pm Monday...Winds are currently 10-15 kts and have been veering to the northeast over the past several hours as a cold front moves through the area. As the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of TS Ophelia and building high pressure to our northeast, a surge of northerly winds is expected late in the period. By tomorrow evening, winds will be NW 15-20G25kt north of Ocracoke and NE 10-15G20kt south of Ocracoke. Across the waters north of Cape Lookout, seas will remain 3-4 ft at 8 seconds until the northerly wind surge builds in late tomorrow, which will cause an increase in wave heigheights to 4-5 ft across the northern waters. Across the southern waters, seas should remain 3-4 ft through the period.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 345pm Mon... Small Craft Advisories will be introduced Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning for all Coastal Waters and Sounds. SCA's for the Sounds will drop off early morning Thursday, with coastal waters SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) continuing until at least Friday.
NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Tuesday to 5am EDT Thursday for AMZ131-135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 4pm Tuesday to 3pm EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 6pm Tuesday to 3pm EDT Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC). Small Craft Advisory from 10pm Tuesday to 3pm EDT Friday for AMZ154(Cape Hatteras to Ocracoke Inlet). Small Craft Advisory from 5am Wednesday to 3pm EDT Friday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 8am Wednesday to 3pm EDT Friday for AMZ158.