Marine Weather Net

Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast


REST OF TODAY

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TONIGHT

S
WINDS
5 KNOTS

SUN

S
WINDS
20 - 30
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ135 Forecast Issued: 1030 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
Rest Of Today...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt Late. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Tonight...S Winds Around 5 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Sun...S Winds 20 To 30 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. Showers.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming W 20 To 25 Kt After Midnight. Waves 2 To 4 Ft.
Mon...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft.
Tue...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming E 5 To 10 Kt In The Evening, Then Becoming Se After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less.
Wed...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Sw 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming W After Midnight. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
622am EST Sat Nov 26 2022

Synopsis
High pressure will move overhead today, then move quickly offshore tonight. Low pressure will then move north through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, with a cold front sweeping through the area Sunday night into Monday. Yet another cold front will move through mid- week, followed by high pressure returning to the region by the end the week.

Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
As of 230am Saturday...Weak high pressure will move overhead today as s/w ridging approaches from the west. As the high moves in, winds will decrease and remain light for most of the area through the day. The impact of rising thicknesses on temps today may be offset some by high clouds streaming across the area, keeping highs below what they otherwise could reach. This should keep highs near normal for most of the area, but with the potential for some areas to "overperform" should more sunshine be realized.

Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through 6am Sunday
As of 230am Saturday...High pressure will quickly slide offshore tonight, with return flow developing in earnest after midnight. Late tonight, a warm front will begin to approach from the south, with increasing southeasterly winds developing at the surface, first along the coast, then eventually further inland. The increasing southerly flow combined with strengthening WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) and increasing cloudcover should lead to warming temps overnight after an initial drop this evening, making for an abnormal diurnal curve. Because of this, I've trended the temps milder tonight compared to the previous forecast. While moisture will be quickly increasing late tonight, the best large scale forcing for ascent arrives just beyond the "SHORT TERM" period, with the better chance of rain holding off until after then.

Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
As of 4am Sat... Low pressure in the Great Lakes region will lift NE'wards into eastern Canada Sunday. This lows associated cold front sweeps E'wards across ENC and pushes offshore Sunday evening. This will bring a threat for rain and thunderstorms across the area. A second dry front crosses the area on Monday briefly bringing a colder airmass to the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Tuesday with yet another frontal passage forecast on Wednesday resulting in our next threat for precipitation across the area. Another ridge of high pressure then builds into the area to end our week next week.

Sunday ... Upper level trough over Great Lakes region lifts NE'wards into Canada while at the surface, low pressure near the Great Lakes area lifts NE'wards into eastern Canada/Interior Northeast. Its associated warm front lifts N over our CWA (County Warning Area) Sunday morning with the associated cold front then quickly sweeping E'wards across ENC and pushing offshore by Sunday night. This will bring our next threat for some wet weather and a few rumbles of thunder as well. Guidance hasn't changed much on the overall evolution of this activity, with the bulk of the rain likely occuring during the morning to early evening out ahead of the cold front. Have kept high end likely to categorical PoP's in this timeframe with PoP's quickly decreasing to SChc from west to east Sunday evening. Though instability will likely be capped at 750 J/kg or less, enough will be in place for the potential for a few rumbles of thunder late Sunday morning into the afternoon. With strong WAA forecast for Sunday, temps will increase into the low 70s across the entire region with lows in the 50s Sunday night.

Monday through Friday... Weak upper level trough pushes through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday while at the surface a dry cold front treks across the area bringing little fanfare to ENC. Surface high then builds in behind the aforementioned front keeping things dry through Tuesday. Cold Air Advection will begin to increase Monday night behind this second frontal passage, so although highs Monday will be closer to the upper 60s, lows Monday night dip into the upper 30s to low 40s across much of the CWA.

By Tuesday and Wednesday upper level trough across the Northern Rockies quickly tracks E'wards into Eastern Canada while at the surface high pressure over Mid-Atlantic moves offshore by Wednesday while deepening low in the Midwest tracks NE'wards. Associated cold front sweeps E'wards across the Carolinas on Wednesday bringing our next threat for rain Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Another ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface builds over the eastern CONUS Thursday and Friday resulting in benign conditions to end our work week next week. Temps remain seasonable to slightly above average Tues/Wednesday with temps then falling to below average values behind the frontal passage for Thurs and Fri.

Marine
SHORT TERM Through Tonight
As of 330am Saturday...Modest Cold Air Advection continues across the ENC coastal waters early this morning, which is supporting sustained northerly winds of 15-20kt, with gusts up to 30kt. A few 30kt+ gusts will be possible across the northern and central coastal waters through early this morning, but then winds will begin to quickly decrease areawide as high pressure moves directly overhead. With the modest northerly winds, windswell-driven seas of 4-8 ft will be common through mid to late morning, before falling out for a short time this afternoon and evening. As high pressure moves offshore tonight, winds will quickly flip around to a southerly direction and begin to increase. This will lead to building seas once again.

The ongoing SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are handling the winds and seas across the northern and central coastal waters well, with more marginal SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions elsewhere. For now, I'll leave all the marine headlines as is, but will re-evaluate trends through the early morning hours to see if any early cancellations are warranted.

Long Term - Sunday Through Wednesday
As of 350am Sat... We start out the long term period with 10-20 kt southerly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters out ahead of a cold front located to the west of the area. As the cold front continues E'wards the pressure gradient will quickly tighten allowing southerly winds to quickly increase to 15-25 kt across our inland sounds and rivers while increasing to 20-30 kts across our coastal waters with gusts in excess of 30-35 kts in areas by late Sunday morning. Seas build in response to the increasing winds to 7-10 ft across our offshore waters during this timeframe. This will result in widespread SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) across our waters with the potential for some gales along our far eastern coastal waters. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are also expected Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon out ahead of the front. The cold front pushes offshore Sunday night ending the rain and thunderstorm threat as well as allowing for more benign marine conditions to return from Monday evening to the end of the period.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for AMZ131- 135-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.

NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 7am EST this morning for AMZ131- 135-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1pm EST this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10am EST this morning for AMZ156- 158.