Pamlico Sound Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Se Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming S Late. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less, Then Around 2 Ft In The Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Tstms. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat Night...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Sun...E Winds Around 5 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Sun Night...Se Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...W Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 750pm EDT Wednesday August 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Thursday has trended drier. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Stalled front remains to the south today, keeping shower and thunderstorm risk low. 2) Unsettled weather returns early Thursday as low travels along stalled front. Increasing moisture and improved dynamics ahead of the next front to cross SAT leads to increased risk of stronger storms FRI. 3) Heat increases early next week. KEY MESSAGE 1...Stalled front remains to the south of ENC this afternoon with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity developing along it across the coastal waters. Seabreeze is currently moving inland this afternoon as well and have kept the SChc Probability of Precipitation in the forecast along the NE'rn zones where best convergence is located. While the threat for a Probability of Precipitation up shower or storm is low it is non-zero. While the front has remained to the south today, flow has begun to shift and become more onshore with SE'rly breeze noted across ENC this afternoon allowing for increased moisture to begin to advect into the area from S-N. Highs have gotten into the 80s to near 90 in places as well, resulting in a slightly more humid day today as compared to yesterday. The aforementioned front is forecast to begin to lift north later this evening as a wave of low pressure develops in the SE and rides NE'wards along the front resulting in increasing chances for precipitation lifting northwards tonight across ENC. Greatest chances to see shower and thunderstorm activity would be east of Hwy 17 and along the OBX. With cloudcover forecast to overspread ENC tonight, lows get into the low 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The aforementioned low pressure system is forecast to lift NE'wards across the area along the stalled front in the early morning hours THU, pushing the boundary north toward, and perhaps over, the ENC coast, providing a better focal point for greater coverage of showers and storms ahead of a second front which will cross the area by Sat. Out of all the days, Thurs looks to have the least amount of activity with showers and thunderstorms being more isolated to widely scattered in nature, though this will still be an increase in precipitation chances as compared to previous days with Probability of Precipitation generally around 30-50% through much of the day Thurs. Activity will likely be ongoing along the OBX and far eastern zones Thurs morning and then push inland as the day goes on. Biggest question marks for tomorrow will be how focused activity will be and how much instability can build through the day. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) do creep back north of 1.75" and likely get close to 2" as we approach the evening hours Thurs, but cloud cover may cap MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg max and with little to no wind shear in place, any shower or tstm that does develop is not anticipated to be very organized. The aforementioned front remains around the area Thurs night into Fri promoting even greater chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as moisture and instability continues to advect into the region. With enough instability in place, and subtly increasing amounts of shear as trough aloft over Canada digs toward the Great Lakes Fri, a few isolated stronger storms aren't completely out of the question. In addition to this, any shower or thunderstorm that develops will be an efficient rainmaker, potentially bringing torrential rainfall and a risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. As such, Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe tstorms and WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall for Fri while the FA is warm sectored with the front that has been offshore then being stalled along or near the Appalachian Mountains. Rain continues into the weekend when a front pushed by the digging trough from the Great Lakes will cross the FA on Sat. Temps through the weekend remain seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Behind the departing cold front, upper level and surface high pressure builds back over the area Sunday into early next week. This will bring a return to more climatological precipitation chances along the seabreeze as well as rising temperatures, low to mid 90s/mid 70s splits and MaxAppTs in excess of 100deg from TUES onward next week. Marine Light SE'rly winds at 5-15 kts are noted across all our waters this afternoon with 2-4 ft seas noted across our coastal waters. Winds will veer tonight and become more S-SW'rly but remains at 5-15 knots while seas across the coastal waters remain around 2-4 ft as well. The most significant change will be the increase in shower and thunderstorm chances as a wave of low pressure lifts NE'wards dragging a stalled frontal boundary currently to our south N'wards across our waters tonight into Thurs morning. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in the strongest storms. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday. SW'rly winds do increase some Thurs afternoon and evening to 10-20 kts with a few gusts around 25 kts forecast, primarily along the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. However, both HREF, and NBM probs for frequent wind gusts above 25 kts remain at or below 20%, across our central and outer waters. So while we can't rule out gusts to or near 25 kts Thurs afternoon into Thurs night gusts should be infrequent enough to preclude any marine headlines across our coastal waters. Outlook: Cold front approaches from the west and acts to weaken the pressure gradient as it nears the area Fri into the weekend. This is forecast to allow for weakening winds back down to 5-15 kts. Seas maintain heigheights of about 2-4 ft through the extended period as well. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances continue Fri into Sat with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms. As we get into Sunday and early next week aforementioned front pushes offshore and away from the area as high pressure builds in from the west allowing for more benign marine conditions and lower chances for precip. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine None. |
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