Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...W Wind 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 40 Kt. Combined Seas 20 To 22 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 14 Seconds. Showers With Small Hail.|
|Fri...Nw Wind 25 To 30 Kt With Gusts To 35 Kt. Combined Seas 21 To 23 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 16 Seconds. Showers Likely With Small Hail.|
|Fri Night...Nw Wind 20 To 25 Kt. Gusts To 35 Kt, Becoming 30 Kt After Midnight. Combined Seas 20 Ft With A Dominant Period Of 14 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Evening.|
|Sat...Nw Wind 20 To 25 Kt, Easing To 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt In The Late Afternoon. Wind Waves Nw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. Nw Swell 16 Ft At 12 Seconds.|
|Sat Night...Sw Wind 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt. Wind Waves W 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 13 Ft At 12 Seconds, Subsiding To 10 Ft At 12 Seconds After Midnight.|
|Sun...S Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 9 Ft.|
|Sun Night...Sw Wind 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 7 Ft. Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 8 Ft.|
|Tue...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 11 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR
827pm PST Thu Feb 25 2021
Updated Aviation and Marine Sections
Cool northwest flow aloft will maintain plenty of showers through Friday night, some with small hail. Snow levels stay in the 2000 to 2500 ft range, which means a lot of snow for the Cascades, with some snow also in the Coast Range and Willapa Hills. Gradually drying on Saturday, with dry weather into early Sunday. But, will see another chance of showers arriving to close the weekend, and into early next week. But, temperatures for the lowlands will be more seasonal early March, with highs in the lower 50s next week.
Tonight through Sunday...Rather strong cold front pushed across the region earlier today. Now, have steady stream of cooler unstable air riding modest northwest winds into the Pac NW. This will maintain plenty of showers. With snow levels rather low, mostly at 2500 to 3500 feet tonight, will see small hail in the heavier showers tonight and Friday.
Higher up, will see rather robust snowfall across the Cascades, where will see 6 to 12 inches falling about every 12 hours, perhaps more in spots. Showers will gradually decrease later Friday night into Saturday morning. Snow levels will lower a bit more on Friday, running at 2000 to 2500 feet. Could see 3 to 8 inches of new snow for the higher ridges of the Cascades foothills, but the jackpot snowfall will be over over the higher Cascades above 3000 feet. As of now, total new snowfall for tonight through Saturday morning on the order of 1 to 2 feet for the Cascades in Lane County, and 2 to 3 feet for the north Oregon Cascades and the south Washington Cascades. Will maintain current Winter Storm Warnings for the Cascades through late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Even the higher peaks of the Willapa Hills and Coast Range may see 2 to 5 inches of new snow during that timeframe. But, will not issue any winter weather statements for those areas as snow level stays just a bit too high, with little if any impact on the passes.
Showers decreasing on Saturday, as main upper flow weakens and air mass moderates a bit. This will stabilize the air mass, with showers ending for most areas by late morning, through may still have a lingering snow shower over the Cascades into the afternoon.
Dry weather continues into Sunday. But, models have been suggesting another weak front approaching later in the day. Not sold on much in way of any precipitation for the area during the day, aside from very minor chance of showers for areas north of a Tillamook to Kelso line. Think will wind up with just mix of sun and clouds for most areas. Will trend forecasts in this direction.
Larger fetch of swell arriving this evening, with seas jumping to 18 to 22 feet. Will maintain High Surf Advisory for the coastal beach areas for tonight through Fri afternoon. Even though tides getting a bit stronger, am not expecting any issues with coastal lowland flooding. /Rockey
Sunday night through Friday...Models having issues in resolving what is more likely to happen next week. For now, will lean to more of a blended approach for Monday through Wed, with some chance of showers. Will see decreasing chance of precipitation next week, so will trend forecasts as such. But, will see somewhat milder temperatures to start March, with highs warming into the lower 50s for the lowlands toward middle of next week. /Rockey
No changes to marine forecast. Seas slow to come up this evening. However, at 04Z buoy 46005 was up to 23 ft. This would decay to around 20 ft at buoy 46029 by 14Z. At 04Z buoy 46248 was at 15 ft, or about 3 ft lower than the 18Z spectral guidance run for buoy 46029. The current forecast shows seas to 25 ft over the far outer waters of PZZ270 by 12Z. This may be a little on the high side, but will leave the forecast as is, in case even larger waves move across buoy 46005 over the next few hours. Weishaar
Remainder of discussion follows: Very active weather tonight through Saturday as a strong system pushes inland over the waters. This system is quite dynamic as it is creating very gusty winds and increased swells. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern inner and outer waters today through Friday early afternoon with westerly winds expected around 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. The most elevated winds will be north and west of 45.65N, -124.51W. Here could see gusts up to 45 kt, but not expected to be widespread or persistent. Gusts should slowly ease to 30 kt by Fri afternoon. While some gusts could remain within gale force levels, most areas will see more persistent small craft winds. This will be the trend through Sat afternoon before winds appear to almost completely drop off as high pressure develops. Expecting winds to remain 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt through the remainder of the weekend.
Seas will also be quite elevated, although they are trending just a tad slower than previously expected. Have lowered seas slightly at the beginning of the afternoon forecast, but still expecting seas near at least 20 ft at 14 seconds overnight. Seas should ease from near 20 ft by Sat morning although likely will stay above 15 ft at 13 seconds. The main impact will be the wind wave and it's impact on the swell. In general, expecting more settled weather through next week. Muessle
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory from 1am to 7pm PST Friday for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Saturday for Northern Oregon Cascades.
Winter Storm Warning until 10am PST Saturday for Cascades in Lane County.
WA...High Surf Advisory from 1am to 7pm PST Friday for South Washington Coast.
Winter Storm Warning until 4am PST Saturday for South Washington Cascades.
PZ...Gale Warning until noon PST Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am PST Sunday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4pm PST Friday for Columbia River Bar.