Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog And A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight.|
|Wed...Ne Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Ne Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Thu...Se Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Fri...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR
922pm PST Wednesday Feb 8 2023
Updated aviation and marine sections
Weather will trend drier through most of the day on Thursday as high pressure moves across the region. Next front will arrive at the coast Thursday afternoon and push inland Thursday evening, bringing the next round of rain, mountain snow, and coastal wind through Friday. Another drier period follows for the weekend, with a switch back to wet weather early next week. Temperatures will also trend colder early next week, introducing at least some winter weather potential in the lower elevations by Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Lingering shower activity has mostly ended across the region this afternoon as an upper level trough departs into the northern Rockies, making way for a ridge building in from the west. Still plenty of cloud cover streaming over the area ahead of the next system positioned well offshore, with a warm front arcing southeast towards the coastal waters of Washington and Oregon. Weak isentropic ascent ahead of this boundary could allow for some very light rain in far northern coastal areas into this evening, but otherwise expecting most of the area to remain dry through much of the day on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, the upstream trough will continue to amplify as it moves closer to the coast, with an associated cold front reaching the coast around mid/late afternoon and pushing inland during the evening. This will bring 30-40 mph southerly gusts along the coasts Thursday afternoon and evening, with 10-20 mph winds spreading into the valley during the evening as the front begins to weaken. Rain will become more showery in nature through Friday as the upper trough crosses the coast. Flow will also become more split as this occurs, with the core of the upper low closing off over northern California while the northern stream energy moves across WA and BC. This will help to keep Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts rather modest across our area Thursday night into Friday, with around a tenth to a quarter inch expected in valley locations, a quarter to a half inch at the coast, and locally higher amounts in the Coast Range and Cascades. SNow levels will remain around 3500-4000 ft, with relatively minor accumulations of a few inches possible in the Cascade passes. /CB
Saturday through Wednesday
The weekend will trend drier again as the trough departs to the south and east and allows another ridge to build into the region. Can't completely rule out some precipitation lingering in coastal areas as the bulk of ensemble clusters keep the ridge relatively flat and maintain some semblance of onshore flow, but any rain amounts look to be on the minimal side through Sunday. The next trough digs down from the Gulf of Alaska on Monday, bringing the next round of rain and mountain snow and also a much colder air mass for the early part of next week. Temperatures aloft will plummet by Tuesday, with 500 mb temps as cold as -38 C and 850 mb temps around -8 C descending upon the Pacific Northwest. This will yield at least some potential for snow to start to mix in at lower elevations by Tuesday, with latest NBM guidance giving about a 25 percent chance for measurable snow at PDX in that time frame. While the large scale pattern appears broadly supportive of potential winter weather concerns, forecast confidence remains low at this time given a lack of more specific details. /CB
strong>Evening Update: t 03Z buoy observations revealed wave heigheights generally 10 to 11 ft. This was about a foot higher than model and spectral guidance. Based on the above, will extend the advisory through 12Z for PZZ271 and 10Z for PZZ272. These times may be a little too long, but it will give the night shift ample time to analyze newer data and trends and end the advisories early if necessary.
Wind speeds gradually strengthen Thursday afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. Model guidance suggests there is the possibility for a short-lived period of low-end gale force gusts Thursday late afternoon through mid-evening. Model ensembles for buoy 46029 indicate peak gusts around 35 kt Thursday evening. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows about a 70 percent chance of gale force gusts at buoy 46050. However, there is a high bias within the latest model version regarding peak wind gusts. Any gale force gusts that occur are expected to be spotty in nature and within a fairly narrow time period.
Will maintain the current small craft advisories valid Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Expect seas to build into the 13 to 15 foot range by Thursday night. If wind speeds end up stronger than expected with this system, then there is the potential for seas to peak in the upper teens.
High pressure returns by the end of the week and will bring relatively benign conditions again with winds generally under 25 kt and seas around 7 to 9 ft. The start of the week has conditions starting to increase as the next system drops down from the Gulf of Alaska. Weishaar/42
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10pm PST this evening for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM-Columbia River Bar-Waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 10am Thursday to 10am PST Friday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM-Columbia River Bar-Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am PST Thursday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 2am PST Thursday for Waters from Cape Falcon to Cape Foulweather OR from 10 to 60 NM.