Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog And A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight.|
|Wed...Ne Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Ne Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Thu...Se Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Fri...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Portland OR
803pm PDT Wednesday Oct 5 2022
...Evening update, for aviation weather.
High pressure over the region will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through at least the weekend. Rain possible Monday and Tuesday as a system approaches from the northwest.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Not much change in the general weather pattern as a robust ridge of high pressure dominates the region through the end of the week. Mild and dry weather expected to continue. The main challenge in the short term will deal with the longevity of the marine stratus each day. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the stratus burning off along the fringes, with sunny skies likely returning across the area by this evening. This should allow temperatures, which are currently in the lower 60s, to briefly warm into the lower to mid 70s inland. Northerly winds may keep the stratus holding on a bit longer in the southern Willamette Valley today.
Marine stratus is again expected to surge inland tonight, but should not be as deep or widespread as this morning. Some light offshore flow will develop on Thursday as lower level thermally induced trough develops and slides inland. This should allow the stratus that does develop overnight to erode considerably faster on Thursday. As a result temperatures are expected to warm inland into the lower to mid 80s. The above average temperatures will continue into Friday as a similar scenario is expected to play out.
Smoke will continue to plague the area immediately downriver of the Cedar Creek fire around Oakridge, but smoke in general should be considerably more limited farther downriver towards the Eugene/Springfield metro area. However, residents of the Eugene/Springfield area may observe more smoke Thursday as the aforementioned easterly flow carries some of the Cedar Creek smoke into the southern Willamette Valley. /DH
Saturday through Wednesday
There is good agreement between the models and their ensembles that the warm and dry fall weather continues through the weekend. Expect the persistent weather pattern to continue with lessening chances of marine stratus each morning pushing inland. The upper level high pressure ridge will shift slightly west on Saturday as an upper trough dives south out of central Canada across the northern plains. Deterministic models show another vigorous trough sliding across the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday, which would flatten the ridge over the NE Pacific. The deterministic models are in remarkable agreement of the shortwave trough dropping southeast and digging into Washington on Monday. This could bring cool and wet weather to the area early next week. What brings some uncertainty to the mix is the lack of agreement between the Day 5 and 6 cluster analysis. Around 25% of ensemble guidance suggests this solution will bring measurable rain to the region. So, confidence is low with the forecast for the early part of next week. The NBM also shows uncertainty in the temperature forecast, showing a range from near normal values to around 10 degrees above average. /DH
Northerly winds have developed over the coastal waters in response to thermally induced low pressure building northward along the northern CA/southern OR coastline and are expected to continue through the upcoming weekend. Early this evening, Small Craft Force wind gusts to 25 kt are expected near the Capes where a slight onshore component to the wind field will result in some convergence and associated acceleration. However, small craft wind gusts should be too localized to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. More widespread breeziness is expected later in the evening and through much of the night tonight as the pressure gradient from the thermal low strengthens, but these winds are expected to fall just shy of small craft criteria with gusts to 20 kt.
Significant wave heigheights will briefly build to around 6 to 7 ft Wednesday evening through Thursday morning due to the combination of an incoming southwest swell associated with a rapidly filling low to our west and wind waves from the gusty north winds. Thereafter 4 to 6 ft seas are expected through the upcoming weekend as northerly winds continue, driven by high pressure across the far northeast Pacific. -Bumgardner/TK
For information about recent marine zone changes, go online to: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/marinezone
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None.