Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Today...W Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves W 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Sw Swell 5 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 4 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Tue...Nw Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 5 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Tue Night...W Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt After Midnight. Wind Waves Sw 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. W Swell 5 Ft At 10 Seconds. Chance Of Rain.|
|Wed...Sw Wind 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt, Becoming W 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Sw 5 Ft At 6 Seconds. W Swell 7 Ft At 9 Seconds. Rain Likely.|
|Wed Night...W Wind 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Wind Waves W 3 Ft At 5 Seconds. W Swell 8 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Thu...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 7 Ft.|
|Fri...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. Nw Swell 6 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Portland OR
255am PDT Monday May 16 2022
A weak upper level trough will move across the region today. Conditions improve Tuesday as weak high pressure develops. A return to a cooler and wetter pattern is expected mid-week, with snow levels lowering to just below the Cascade passes Wednesday night. A return to dry and mild conditions occurs late next week and into the weekend.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)... Remnants of the frontal boundary still hung up along the coast. This due to the main low that remains over the southeast Gulf of Alaska. But, as that low shifts towards the BC coast today, will see the weakening frontal boundary offshore push inland today. Highest Probability of Precipitation will be through early afternoon, and mainly along the coast and northward into Washington. As such, will trend forecasts in that direction. Otherwise, skies gradually becoming partly cloudy later today. Not as warm as past few days, but should be into the middle 60s for inland areas, with upper 50s along the coast.
Showers ending this evening, with skies clearing. Overall, rather tranquil pattern for tonight through Tuesday evening, as weak transitory ridge shifts across the region. Not much change on Tuesday as far as temperatures. But, will be dry. With lot more in way of sunshine, will feel like a great mid-spring day.
(Wednesday through Sunday)...The next weather system reaches the coast early Wednesday morning and then moves inland during the day. Expected Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts with this system look to be on the order of one-quarter to one-half inch for the south Washington and north Oregon coast and higher terrain and the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades and foothills. Generally around a tenth of an inch expected for the interior valleys.
Cascade snow levels lower to near 3500 feet Wednesday night. Not expecting much in the way of snowfall accumulation as the bulk of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast will have already occurred. The NBM shows 24-hr snowfall amounts through 18Z Thursday up to 3 inches for the higher peaks. The deterministic ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has the main upper trough energy over the northern Rockies 12Z Thursday. The 12Z operational GFS holds energy a little more south and west. The WPC 500 mb clusters show slightly differing solutions for the trough location. The model-mean cluster has the largest 500 mb height anomalies focused along the Montana and Canada border, closer to the 12Z ECMWF solution.
Models and their respective ensembles suggest an improving trend will be in the works beginning Friday. There are couple of WPC clusters that are slower to eject the upper trough eastward. However, 80 percent of the CMC ensembles are quicker with building 500 mb heights just off the coast. Model differences become more apparent Saturday as the deterministic ECMWF maintains ridging over the forecast area. The GFS shows a much flatter ridge and brings the next frontal system to the coast by 00Z Sunday. The WPC clusters favor some degree of ridging, with the model ensemble mean indicating high pressure centered along 130-135W. There are a few EPS members showing some Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for north Willamette Valley locations Saturday. Forecast confidence lowers even more for Sunday. One WPC cluster has strong ridging centered along the coast. Another cluster has the ridging suppressed well to the south and a third cluster shows a large upper level trough over much of the western U.S. Generally followed the NBM for the weekend, using the NBM Experimental POPS. /Weishaar
A front moving through the waters overnight is almost ashore as of 2 AM, and should move ashore shortly. Southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 kt ahead of the front with westerly wind gusting 15 to 20 kt. A wind wave dominated sea state will make for choppy conditions early this morning. Westerly wind continue to ease through the day as weak high pressure builds over the waters. High pressure remains over the coastal waters through Tue, then gives way to the next frontal system will likely approach on Wednesday with increasing southerly winds and building seas. This front as currently forecast, may bring brief gale force gusts early Wednesday morning as a brief coastal jet develops. A quieter period sets up for the latter half of the week with modest west to northwest wind as high pressure strengthens to the southwest.
The full moon Monday night will produce strong tidal currents through Thursday. Ebb currents between 4 to 4.5 kt are expected during the early morning hours. Mariners moving in and out of harbor should plan accordingly. /mh
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT early this morning for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.