Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...S Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog In The Morning. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...N Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight. |
| Wed...Ne Wind 5 Kt, Backing To Nw To 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Nw At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt, Backing To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Se At 4 Seconds After Midnight. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...S Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 313am PDT Thu July 17 2025 Synopsis Onshore flow gradually increases in the coming days allowing inland high temperatures to decline moving into the weekend. That said, temperatures likely remain above normal through Friday for much of the region. Our focus then turns to the potential further amplification of an upper trough on Monday as temperatures bottom out, and depending on the track light precipitation will be in play across the area as well. Low to moderate forecast confidence Tuesday onward due to rapidly increasing model uncertainty. .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday...After yesterday's hot temperatures and broad offshore/easterly flow, expect a switch back to light onshore westerly flow today into the weekend allowing conditions to gradually trend cooler the next few days. Currently, satellite imagery depicts fog and low stratus firmly in place across the coast into the coast range valleys, a sign of moister/cooler oceanic air attempting to surge inland. While models like the HREF show this cloud layer struggling to penetrate into the Portland/Vancouver metro southward through the Willamette Valley, this shift in low level flow will be enough to knock inland high temperatures down into the upper 80s to low 90s - a noticeable decrease from yesterday (Wednesday). Highs at the coast hold in the upper 50s to 60s. As a nice added bonus, the westerly flow should help to keep regional wildfire smoke confined east of the Cascades, a trend likely to persist through the weekend as well. Anticipate comparable temperatures on Friday to that of Thursday although a weak upper-level trough begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon hours which at the very least leads to increasing west winds through the central Columbia River Gorge. Come Saturday and Sunday both ensemble and deterministic guidance support broad northwesterly flow as a weak upper-level troughing is maintained overhead helping to reinforce cooler conditions and increase morning cloud cover potential - both along the coast and inland. As the marine layer deepens, there is growing support for morning drizzle, particularly along the coast into the west slopes of the coast range. The best window for this looks to be during the Saturday night into Sunday morning time period, although it can't be ruled out Friday night into Saturday morning. The south Washington and north Oregon coasts currently carry the highest relative chance (10-20%) of seeing a few hundredths of an inch, with lower probabilities south of Lincoln City/Newport. High temperatures over the weekend likely hold in the upper 70s to low 80s across the inland valleys, that said, the exact timing of clearing morning cloud cover will modulate these values. If clearing of the morning marine stratus deck is delayed by a few hours, which is sometimes the case (models typically mix out morning clouds too quickly), these values will trend moreso towards the mid to upper 70s - something to keep in mind. -Schuldt Long Term Monday through Thursday...Looking into early next week, uncertainty rapidly increases regarding the exact placement of future trough amplification over western CONUS and thus chances for light showers/rainfall locally. Ensemble systems and their respective deterministic counterparts are struggling to resolve the progression of an upper-level shortwave running north to south along western B.C. into the Pacific Northwest slated to arrive on Monday. Exploring the 00z ensemble space through cluster analysis shows around 45% of the total ensemble members, and the deterministic ECMWF, depict a shortwave track and eventual amplification far enough west for decent light shower chances across the CWA (County Warning Area) while the remaining 55% keep it shunted further east leading to a drier solution. In either case, temperatures likely remain a few degrees below normal on Monday. Would like to see another model run or two depicting similar probabilities of the former solution before increasing Probability of Precipitation on Monday. From there model solutions diverge further with the ECMWF/Canadian favoring continued troughing overhead through Wednesday while the GFS (Global Forecast System) tries to slowly increase upper-level heights. The NBM does favors a gradual warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday, however, due to the aforementioned model uncertain forecast confidence out at day 5-7 is only low to moderate at this time. -Schuldt Marine Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued across all waters including the Columbia River Bar for dense fog reducing visibility to 1 NM or less. Conditions should improve by 1200-1400 Thursday as daytime heating and atmospheric mixing progresses. A weak surface trough will bring light southerly winds across the waters today, mainly north of Cape Foulweather. By this evening, high pressure will re-build and return northerly to northwesterly winds through next week. The Small Craft Advisory for choppy seas over the outer waters (10-60 NM out) is set to expire at 0500 Thursday. Winds weaken and seas subside further heading into the weekend with minimal impacts expected. -Alviz NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 1pm PDT this afternoon for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273. Small Craft Advisory until 2am PDT early this morning for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT early this morning for PZZ271>273. |
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