Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...S Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog In The Morning. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon.|
|Tonight...N Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight.|
|Wed...Ne Wind 5 Kt, Backing To Nw To 5 Kt In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Nw At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt, Backing To Se After Midnight. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Se At 4 Seconds After Midnight. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds.|
|Thu...S Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves S 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Thu Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Fri...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR
912pm PDT Tuesday September 27 2022
Updated aviation discussion
Sunny skies continue through this evening as high pressure shifts east of the region. An approaching front will bring measurable rain to much of the area on Wednesday, with cool and showery weather continuing through Thursday as an upper level trough crosses the region. High pressure returns on Friday, ushering in another warm and dry stretch through the weekend.
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly sunny skies prevail again this afternoon in southwest flow aloft between broad upper level ridging over the Rockies and a sharp and deepening trough over the northeast Pacific. Visible satellite imagery reveals a well defined low pressure system associated with the upper level trough near 46N 135W. An occluded front extends well out ahead of the low center, approximately 250 miles offshore of the Oregon Coast. Expect rain to develop along the coast late tonight as the front approaches and then spread inland to the Willamette Valley and the Cascades Wednesday morning. Virtually all of the area will see at least some measurable rain by Wednesday evening, but amounts should remain rather modest with valley locations picking up less than a quarter of an inch while coastal and north OR Cascade locations could see a quarter to a half inch of precipitation. Rain will will become more showery in nature Wednesday night as the low crosses the area, but inland valleys could see up to another tenth of an inch through Thursday morning while the north OR and south WA Cascades pick up as much as another quarter or an inch. The low will have weakened considerably by the time it reaches the coast, helping to minimize the wind potential although coastal areas will still likely see some gusts in the 30-40 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will linger on and off through much of Thursday on the back side of the low, but should diminish relative quickly Thursday evening as the upper trough departs to the east and is replaced by another ridge for the end of the week. /CB
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WPC's cluster analysis for 500 mb heigheights depict good agreement amongst models and their ensembles in regards to the synoptic-scale pattern Friday through the weekend, suggesting upper level ridging will result in above normal 500 mb heights. The NBM keeps the area dry during that time and suggests highs will rise back into the low to mid 80s for the interior lowlands. This is a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the beginning of October. It appears Saturday will be the warmest day; this is when the NBM 25th to 75th percentile guidance is generally in the 80s. We leaned on NBM 75th percentile numbers for our high temperatures in the extended. TK/Weagle
A low pressure system approaching the area will bring increasing southerlies and rain across the coastal waters tonight through Wednesday. South winds will quickly ramp up as the front ahead of the low moves over the waters, further intensifying through Wednesday afternoon. Looking at widespread gusts up to 25 kt throughout all of the waters, with chances for gusts up to 30 kt in the outer waters. Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters beginning late tonight, and one for the inner waters beginning 8am Wednesday morning. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are expected to persist into early Thu morning.
Initially seas will remain in the 4 to 5 ft range through this evening but will begin to build in response to the approaching weather system on Wednesday. Seas will be primarily driven by a 10 ft westerly swell at around 11 seconds. But southerly winds waves will make the seas steep and choppy, with seas peaking around 12 ft by Wednesday evening. Seas should gradually subside to below 10 ft late Thu morning or afternoon. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms in the outer waters along the backside of the front Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
The new moon will produce stronger tidal currents during the evening ebb cycles Tuesday through Friday. Those moving in and out of harbors and crossing coastal bars should use caution and be aware of any bar restrictions that may be in place. /DH
For information about recent marine zone changes, go online to: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/marinezone
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8am Wednesday to 5am PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5am PDT Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.