Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 4 Ft At 10 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog.|
|Wed...Sw Wind To 5 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. Areas Of Fog In The Morning.|
|Wed Night...Sw Wind 5 To 10 Kt, Backing To Se After Midnight. Gusts To 15 Kt Overnight. Wind Waves Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Se 3 Ft At 4 Seconds After Midnight. W Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Thu...Se Wind 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt, Veering To W In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Se 2 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The W At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. W Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. Patchy Dense Fog.|
|Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. W Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds.|
|Fri...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 2 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 2 Ft.|
|Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 3 Ft. W Swell 2 Ft.|
|Sun...Nw Wind 10 To 15 Kt. Wind Waves 4 Ft. W Swell 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Portland OR
246pm PDT Tuesday July 5 2022
An upper level trough off the Pac NW coast will maintain temperate yet unsettled weather across the region through at least Thursday. Scattered showers are expected to persist through Wednesday, increasingly favoring the higher terrain. The upper trough will finally accelerate eastward Friday, bringing an end to the showers. Seasonably warm and dry weather is expected over the weekend. A warming trend is looking increasingly likely early next week, though it remains uncertain just how hot it will get.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show a broad upper level trough extending south from the Gulf of Alaska across the NE Pacific and Pacific NW and into western Canada, with multiple upper level disturbances rotating within. One of the upper lows remains offshore ejecting multiple shortwaves across the region through Thursday. Scattered showers continues to lift north this afternoon, heaviest along the higher terrain. Thunder is possible in the Cascades this evening as southerly mid level flow continues. Mid level lapse rates are decent, around 6-6.5 C/km while some sun breaks are showing up along the western slopes of the Lane County Cascades. HREF guidance shows less than 10% chance for thunder, but the NBM is somewhat more optimistic showing 20-30% chance. Waves of light showers will likely continue overnight and into Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday the upper low drifts northward, rotating another shortwave trough toward the area. Chances for showers will persist through the evening, but models showing less moisture in the mid levels indicating shower activity may be less widespread. Will keep a mention of thunder for the Cascades as well on Wednesday afternoon with a similar pattern as today. The upper low continues to drift farther north on Thursday while at the surface the marine influence becomes increasingly pronounced, causing the environment to become increasingly stable. Thus, Wednesday night and Thursday should be drier for the forecast area. Low clouds will likely be extensive Thursday morning due to the deep marine layer, lingering will into the day. Overall, temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, with highs mostly in the mid 70s for the inland valleys. /Hartsock
Friday through Tuesday...An upper level shortwave trough will push across the region on Friday, but conditions are expected to remain dry. Onshore flow will continue as well with some morning clouds likely. Temperatures will likely warm to seasonable normals. Similar trends into Saturday as upper level heigheights begin to increase. Upper level ridging builds in earnest over the Pacific NW later this weekend and into early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) show 850 mb temperatures warming from around 12 deg C on Saturday to around 20-22 deg C on Monday. The NBM continues to suggest a 50-70% chance that temperatures through the Willamette Valley will reach at least 90 degrees both Monday and Tuesday next week. The extent of the heat remains a bit uncertain with roughly a 10-15% chance that temps reach triple digits. /DH
Observations from 2PM Tuesday show winds generally less than 10 knots and seas around 4 feet. Ahead of a low offshore, winds will turn southerly and bring fog north across the waters tonight into Wednesday, with reduced visibilities from this mist potentially lingering through Thursday. High pressure will slowly build into the region through the weekend, and with a thermal low developing in southern Oregon the gradient will foster gusty northerly winds by Sunday evening. Small Craft Force wind gusts over 20 knots will be possible Sunday, but much more likely by Monday - especially in the central waters where the chances are over 75%. -Bumgardner
For information about upcoming marine zone changes, go online to: https://www.weather.gov/pqr/marinezone
NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None.