Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog In The Morning. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Nw Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight. |
| Wed...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Ne Wind To 5 Kt, Backing To Nw In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Nw At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1125am PDT Monday Jun 8 2026 Updated aviation discussion. Synopsis Cool and wet to hot and dry. This is a simple, concise, but accurate summation of the weather conditions to come as we progresses through the next 5-7 days and beyond. Today is shaping up to be rather soggy and cool, especially by June standards, as steady stratiform rain spreads over western Oregon and southwest Washington before showers linger into the middle of the week. Anticipate breezy south to southwest winds today and tonight as well with wind gusts as high as 30-45 mph. While the cooler/wetter first portion of the week is unusually spring-like, we have to pay the proverbial piper at some point, and it appears he's coming to collect late week into the weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a multi-day heat event in the June 13-16 timeframe - a stark contrast to how this week begins. Don't get caught off guard and start preparing for heat related impacts, you'll thank yourself later. .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday...Cool, wet, and locally breezy conditions are the highlight of the short term forecast thanks to an upper-level trough and accompanying sub-1000mb surface low quickly bearing down on the Pacific Northwest this morning. Modeling systems are still in good agreement depicting the center of the aforementioned closed surfaced low tracking over the south WA/north OR coastal waters towards Long Beach Peninsula by the late afternoon hours and radar observations are already beginning to pick up on the large swath of steady stratiform rain ahead of this surface low. Rainfall is expected to spread from west to east across western WA/OR around sunrise and lasting through the day. Turning our focus back to that surface low, as it swings into the coastline a tightening pressure gradient aided by 40-50 knot winds just above the surface near 850mb (a notable low-level jet feature) likely facilitates breezy south to southwest winds first at the coast, then inland. The period to watch will be the late afternoon and evening hours as s cold frontal boundary associated with the low passes overhead amplifying vertical mixing (again, remember those strong winds just above the surface) while the N to S pressure gradient peaks. While the current forecast generally has gusts in the 25-35 mph range across the coast and inland valleys, this is a scenario when winds could overperform (20-40% chance) due to the favorable frontal dynamics and surface pressure gradient alignment. Would not be surprise to see a few locations record gusts closer to 40-45 mph when all is said and done, especially along the coast this afternoon, and in the central/north Willamette valley during the 4-10pm timeframe. It might be a good time this morning to secure any loose items in your yard if you live in a location susceptible to south-southwesterly winds. Deterministic models and their ensembles remain in good agreement for broad upper level troughing and west to northwest flow to hold over the region Tuesday and Wednesday helping to maintain a cool and showery weather pattern. High temperatures rise mainly into the 60s across the inland valleys which is 4 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. At least the latest NBM Probability of Precipitation suggest showers should dissipate by Wednesday afternoon for most locations outside of the higher terrain in southwest Washington. As far as precipitation totals concerned, the vast majority falls between 5AM this morning and 5am PDT Wednesday. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts from the deterministic NBM during this 48-hour period range generally between 0.5-1.0" over inland valleys, around 1" at the coast, and 1-2" in the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades. Probabilities for over 0.5" of rain have settled around 85-95%, and probabilities for 1" of rain or more are 25-50% over the Central Willamette Valley into Portland metro (only 10% near Eugene), and 80-95% along the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades. We'll definitely take any rainfall we can get this time of year, and looking ahead it may be the last we'll see for awhile. -99 Long Term Thursday through Sunday...And then it gets hot. The long term forecast continues to be highlighted by a prolonged stretch of dry conditions with moderate to high confidence in a prolonged multi-day heat wave beginning on Saturday. Before the heat truly kicks in, expect rather pleasant weather on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s, except 60s at the coast - enjoy. From Friday onward into early next week, models and their ensembles show an upper level ridge amplifying over the far northeast Pacific, with some lingering uncertainty regarding exactly how far east the ridge axis will move. Despite the uncertainty with the location of the ridge axis, confidence is high temperatures will be heating up significantly June 13-15. This is when the LREF mean shows 500 mb heigheights near the climatological 97-98th percentile and the NBM shows a 60-90% chance for high temperatures above 90 degrees for inland valleys and less than a 10% chance at the coast. In fact the latest NBM shows a 20-40% chance for highs at or above 100 degrees June 14-15 for inland valleys, suggesting a major heat wave is certainly within the realm of possibility. In addition, overnight lows in the mid or even upper 60s will offer minimal overnight relief for those without any means of cooling. As such, probabilities for a Moderate HeatRisk or higher peak near 80-95% June 14-15, with a 40-65% chance for a Major HeatRisk or higher. Note the highest probabilities are over the greater Portland/Vancouver metro. Anyone who is sensitive to heat or those who have outdoor plans should pay attention to the forecast over the coming days and be prepared for potential extreme heat. Those planning on swimming in rivers or lakes to cool off should be mindful of cold water temperatures and swift currents, which can become life threatening. -99/23 Marine Our next impactful weather disturbance rapidly approaches early this morning slated to bring elevated winds and seas in addition to a period of widespread rainfall. Southerly winds are expected noticeable increase this morning, peaking midday into the afternoon hours with high confidence in widespread 30-35 knot gusts. That said, even stronger gusts can be expected south of Cape Falcon where gale-force gusts as high as 40-45 knots are likely (70-80%). North of this point gusts of this magnitude can't be ruled out but appear more isolated in nature. Thus, a Gale Warning was issued for the inner and outer waters south of Cape Falcon through 1900 today. A fresh westerly swell and wind waves allow seas to build from 4-5 ft this afternoon to 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds by this afternoon and evening with a continued dominant westerly swell. While southerly winds eventually subside behind the frontal passage this evening, west-northwesterly winds the wake of this feature are also expected to gust near 20-25 knot while seas remain relatively steep, so Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Tuesday evening after which point lingering west-northwest winds drop into the 10-20 knot range and square seas settle slightly. Then on Wednesday into Wednesday night west-northwest winds steadily turn more northerly as high pressure builds offshore - a return to a more summer-like pattern. Strengthening northerlies will see diurnal peaks in the afternoon each day Thursday through at least Saturday and Sunday which could necessitate additional Small Craft Advisories for gusts near 25 kt. Seas through this period look to remain near 5-7 ft with a west-northwest swell at 9-11 seconds. -99 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11pm PDT Tuesday for PZZ210-251- 271. Gale Warning until 7pm PDT this evening for PZZ252-253-272- 273. Small Craft Advisory from 7pm this evening to 11pm PDT Tuesday for PZZ252-253-272-273. |
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