Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Today...Sw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves Sw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Widespread Dense Fog In The Morning. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Afternoon. |
| Tonight...Nw Wind To 5 Kt. Wind Waves Nw 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. Areas Of Dense Fog In The Evening. Patchy Dense Fog After Midnight. |
| Wed...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Wed Night...N Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves N 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Thu...Ne Wind To 5 Kt, Backing To Nw In The Afternoon. Wind Waves Ne 1 Ft At 4 Seconds, Shifting To The Nw At 4 Seconds In The Afternoon. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Thu Night...Nw Wind 5 Kt. Wind Waves N 1 Ft At 4 Seconds. Nw Swell 3 Ft At 10 Seconds. |
| Fri...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Sat...Nw Wind 5 To 10 Kt. Wind Waves 2 Ft. Nw Swell 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion ...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 944pm PST Fri Nov 14 2025 Updated Aviation and Marine Discussion... Synopsis Zonal flow through the weekend will transition into a long wave trough with a closed low over northern California. Will see a steady cool down but not a cold snap. Rain and mountain snow expected. Another round of cold and moist air occurs on Thursday through Friday though conditions have warmed slightly since previous forecasts. .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Satellite shows generally zonal flow over the region with a broad area of low pressure sitting within the Pacific. Westerly flow will instigate showery conditions which are producing locally heavy yet non-impactful accumulations. On Saturday, weak upper-level ridging will begin to develop east of the Cascades, lowering the chances for additional rain inland. Inland locations will see around a 20-30% chance of accumulating rainfall (0.01" or greater), while the coast will be closer to 50%. Daytime high temperatures will reach their peak on Saturday. One slight shift on Saturday night into Sunday will be the potential for fog development. If enough clearing occurs overnight, fog within the Coast Range valleys will form. Inland sites may remain too dry for that to occur, however, our more fog prone areas like around Eugene or Hillsboro may see some patchy fog. -27 Long Term Sunday through Friday...The ridging will begin to break down on Sunday as a long wave trough associated with a broad low pressure system to the north advects southward. The main impacts from this system will occur on Monday through Tuesday. Unfortunately this trough has yet to come into good agreement and that is due to it's split nature. Some models are suggesting a closed low forming near the base of the trough while others are keeping it as one "solid piece". Let's look at each possible solution and what the impacts would be. If the closed low theory takes hold, the most likely track is again over northern California. The low itself would be active and would advect colder air over the region. The colder air and more active pattern would promote heavier precipitation and likely lower snow levels. If a more elongated low manifests then the cold air intrusion will be less robust and thus snow levels slightly lower. While the pattern may have much to be desired for consistency, the sensible weather has not be effected significantly. Over the last few forecasts snow levels have continued to rise with lower and lower probability for advisory level snow (6-12"). On Monday through Tuesday there is less than a 10% chance of pass level advisory level snow, and less than a 20% chance of volcano heavy snow accumulation. On Wednesday, an inverted trough forms as the upper level low moves into the desert southwest. Fast forward to Thursday and Friday. This is when yet another fall system will move in. In current ensembles there is basically no agreement in specifics and anomaly is high in the 500 mb heights. There continues to be a low attempting to form just off the coast but once again, poorly realized. Currently the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is the coldest of the modeled ensembles while the GEPS is much warmer. With that in mind, probabilistically we are all over the place. For example, at Willamette Pass there is around a 25% chance of 6" or more of snow. There is high consensus in overall temperatures lowering on Wednesday and Thursday. -27 Marine Seas continue to remain around 9-10 ft and winds gusting to around 20-25 kt. In response to these conditions persisting, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 3am Saturday. Expect seas to subside to 6-8 ft through Saturday and Saturday night, with winds gusting under 20 knots. Another frontal system traverses the waters Sunday into Monday, bringing increased southwesterly winds with gusts to 15-21 knots before turning out of the northwest. A westerly swell helps to increase wave heigheights to 13-15 ft on Monday morning as well, before falling below 10 ft again on Tuesday. Should this forecast remain on track, an additional round of Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the inner and outer waters. Expect a fairly active and progressive weather pattern to continue the rest of the week as yet another weather system may bring hazardous winds and seas later in the next week. Models show a 30-50% chance for wave heigheights to meet or exceed 15 ft on Thursday. ~12/99 NOAA Portland OR Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3am PST Saturday for PZZ210-251-252- 271-272. |
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