Mississippi Sound GMZ532 Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Today...North Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming West 5 To 10 Knots In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Tonight...Northwest Winds Near 10 Knots Becoming East After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds.|
|Monday Night...Southeast Winds Near 10 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
|Tuesday...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Tuesday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 1 To 2 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.|
|Wednesday Night...Northeast Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots Becoming East 5 To 10 Knots Late In The Afternoon. Waves 2 To 4 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Chance Of Showers.|
|Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 5 To 10 Knots Becoming Northeast 10 To 15 Knots In The Late Evening. Waves 1 To 3 Feet. Dominant Period 4 Seconds. Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.|
| Synopsis for Pascagoula to SW Pass Mississippi - GMZ501|
Synopsis for SW Pass Mississippi River to Atchafalaya River- GMZ500
1004 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021
A weak front will stall over the northern Gulf of Mexico today. Weak surface lows may develop along this boundary by the early or middle part of the week.
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1153am CDT Sunday April 11 2021
Short Term - Today Through Tuesday
Quiet weather returns today as trough shifts east and surface high pressure builds in. Although upper upper level ridge will still just be coming in, strong radiation this time of year will hold temps steady to around the same as yesterday. The difference with today is it will be much sunnier. Most guidance is fairly tightly clustered on forecast highs, so didn't stray much from NBM. The same goes for tonight as the surface high settles in on the Gulf Coast. Lows should fall right to around climate for this time of year.
Broad and somewhat flat upper level ridge will be passing over the region on Monday. This will allow for moderating temps. Expect highs to bump up several degrees with most of the CWA excluding marine locations in the 80s. Moisture levels through the column will still be well below 0.75", so no rain. However, ridge sliding east with time will bring the return of shore flow and thus rapidly rising moisture. As we go into Tuesday, that moisture increase combined with sufficient daytime heating will bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Current forecast shows POPs across the local area ranging from about 40% in southwest Mississippi up to 60% on the Louisiana coast. Wouldn't be surprised to need to increase those values by at least 20% in the coming days. Tuesday will be the start of what will be a fairly rainy several days, possibly more than a week.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)... Forecast consistency and continuity with the ensemble means has been quite impressive the last few days and the the continues to lead to a high than normal confidence in the forecast with the overall pattern this coming work week. No deviations made from the NBM tonight.
Still looks like a nice blocking pattern set ups for the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS. This leaves us under that quick zonal flow we have been mentioning the last few days. With that quick west to east flow in the mid levels we will see multiple impulses come across the region and this will provide the lift and forcing to spark multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At the surface it still looks like there will be some boundary draped across the Gulf south acting as a focus in the LL. Both of these features along with abundant moisture favor rain and some possibly heavy at times. The big unknown is timing these impulses along with placement of the boundary and until we have a better idea of those it is still too difficult to try and pinpoint any locations or time frame for the heaviest rain. Even as the blocking pattern finally tries to break down by next weekend we will still be under zonal flow likely leading to above normal rain chances net weekend. /CAB/
North winds around 10-15kt will begin to move over the northern gulf this morning. These winds will begin to shift around the compass to easterly and SE by Monday night lasting through Wednesday. A cold front will move through Thursday bringing north winds of 15-20kt which will ease to around 10-15kt and shift to NE and E through the weekend.
Tuesday will find a very tight surface trough developing over the coastal waters. This trough will provide a focus for sh/ts to develop Tuesday. A surface low will move over the area from the west keeping plenty of sh/ts going Wednesday. The low will also get help from a cold front moving in from the north to keep this activity developing Thursday as well. The front moves offshore and stalls Friday with a short end to the sh/ts. But showers begin to develop again late Friday as another low develops to the west.
NOAA New Orleans LA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.