Charleston Harbor Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Sw Winds 10 Kt. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 Kt. |
| Wed...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Wed Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. A Chance Of Showers In The Evening. |
| Thu...N Winds 10 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 Kt. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. |
| Fri Night...E Winds 5 Kt. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. A Slight Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Showers Likely. Unless Otherwise Noted, Waves 1 Foot Or Less. Charleston Harbor Water Temperature 47 Degrees. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 107pm EST Tuesday Feb 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made to discussion for Key Message 1 in regards to precipitation amounts and trends. The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. Minor changes have been made to the marine section for including Small Craft Advisories tonight along with potential hazards this weekend. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend. Aloft, h5 shortwave energy associated with a broad mid-level trough will ripple across the Southeast United States Wednesday, while a surface cold front advances across the local area with scattered to numerous light/moderate showers starting around daybreak (30-50% chance), then expanding east and peaking in coverage early afternoon (60-80% - highest across Southeast South Carolina), before ending from west to east during evening hours. Precip amounts remain on the lighter side despite a fairly large swath of moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) near 1.25 inches) and the duration/speed of the front, although a thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out across Southeast Georgia mid-late afternoon. Most areas could see rainfall accumulations in the 0.1 to 0.25 inch range. NBM probabilities for 24-hr rainfall amounts ending 7am Thursday indicate 40-70% for amounts >0.10" and 20-40% for amounts >0.25" with highest values along the immediate SC coast. Any precipitation is anticipated to end by midnight Thursday. Attention turns to a more substantial rainfall event this weekend with models indicating a potent mid-level low passing across the Southeast during a time when the local area becomes warm-sectored Saturday into Sunday. Latest model trends suggest the peak of precipitation coverage occurring Sunday afternoon/evening (70-90% chance) when moisture supply is largest (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 1.25-1.50 inches) during peak forcing. Despite some variability in the strength and track of the low, ensemble guidance displays a 70-80% chance for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts >0.5" and 50-70% for >1.0". Quantitative Precipitation Forecast amounts around an inch continue to be advertised by WPC late weekend as well, which appears reasonable given some locations should experience thunderstorm activity within warm-sectoring/southerly flow prior to the low pressure system/front shifting offshore late Sunday/early Monday. Marine Through Tonight: Southwesterly winds will strengthen as the local waters become sandwiched between a high pressure located across the southwestern Atlantic and a low pressure sitting over the Great Lakes region. This set-up will yield wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts across the majority of the marine zones with 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible across the nearshore Charleston and outer Georgia waters. A bit of east-northeasterly swell surges into the local waters with waves 2 to 4 ft in the nearshore waters and 3 to 6 ft in the outer Georgia waters. Hence, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore Charleston and outer Georgia waters for late tonight through Wed. afternoon. Wednesday through Saturday: East-southeasterly winds will prevail through Wednesday afternoon as conditions slowly improve across the Atlantic waters due to the pressure gradient relaxing back. As the front passes through on Wednesday afternoon, winds will veer out of the northeast through the remainder of the period. Expect winds to dial back and remain relatively calm after Wednesday as east- northeasterly swell lingers. However, conditions look to remain under Small Craft Advisory thresholds. NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 1am to 3pm EST Wednesday for AMZ350-374. |
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