Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 4 Ft At 7 Seconds. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms. |
| Tonight...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming N After Midnight. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Wave Detail: S 4 Ft At 6 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Ne 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Wave Detail: E 2 Ft At 6 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms After Midnight. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 Ft. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Mon...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Mon Night...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 820am EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Today Ahead of a Cold Front. 2) A short period of dry weather is expected Friday before rain chances return Saturday ahead of the next cold front. 3) Dry weather and below normal temperatures should develop Tuesday through Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Today Ahead of a Cold Front. Latest surface analysis shows the cold front struggling to get into northwest Georgia, as denoted by a lack of wind shift. Showers have overspread across Georgia and South Carolina these last several hours, with a few rumbles of thunder noted. A couple waves of showers will continue to make their way from west to east across northeast SC and southeast NC through the morning commute. High-res ensemble data continues to suggest that this is where most of the rainfall amounts will occur (over 0.75" in some spots), but these showers are scattered in nature. Expect periods of rain in between the lulls this morning. Instability starts to increase by 10-11am this morning, but ample cloud cover and expected cold pooling keeps the SBCAPE well under 1000 J/kg. Better instability will occur well to the south in Lowcountry, which looks to "steal" the thermodynamic energy (typical for these parts). Bulk shear parameters get up towards 50-60 kts this afternoon, where some showers may try to bring that energy to the surface as a strong wind gust. Areas east of I-95 and south of US-74 still stand the best chance at capturing these gusty showers. Rain chances come down slightly by late this afternoon, but it's not a clean break, so to speak. Dry air starts intruding in the 500-700 mb layer, but plenty of moisture persists in the lower levels. The front itself is forecast to move through the area this evening and tonight, which may bring enough of extra lift to provide a secondary, thin line of showers to move through late tonight. Dry air quickly follows behind, so rain chances cease by midnight tonight. KEY MESSAGE 2: A short period of dry weather is expected Friday before rain chances return Saturday ahead of the next cold front. Dry weather is expected Friday as a flat upper ridge supports weak surface high pressure that should drift eastward and across the Carolinas during the afternoon. Precipitable water should fall to 0.5 inch inland and around 0.75 inches at the coast. The high will push offshore Friday night. Gulf return flow arriving early Saturday morning should lead to scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms during the day Saturday, persisting throughout the rest of the weekend. With models showing relatively high precipitable water values around 1.5 to 1.7 inches continuing through Sunday night along with a steady train of subtle southerly stream upper impulses, there isn't a clear window when rain chances may be maximized or minimized. This explains the extended period of mid-range Probability of Precipitation (40-60 percent) in the forecast Saturday all the way through Sunday night. Severe weather potential appears muted this weekend as both instability and the strength of low and mid level winds may be too limited. The cold front's arrival on Monday could lead to better rain chances developing, at least until dry air begins to punch in behind the front during the afternoon and evening. KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry weather and below normal temperatures should develop Tuesday through Wednesday. Cold advection behind Monday's front should begin in earnest Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday before turning neutral. Depending on your model of choice, Tuesday morning's forecast 850 mb temps between +2C and +5C are all below the 10th percentile for May 12th and should result in below-normal temperatures Monday night, Tuesday, and at least through Tuesday night before moderating Wednesday. Marine Through Tonight Moderate breeze out of the southwest becomes a fresh breeze later this morning, even up to a strong breeze this afternoon over the offshore waters out 60 nm from Cape Fear to Surf City. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts over 25 kts over the coastal waters from Little River to Surf City out 20 nm this afternoon, but they appear more convective than gradient. Therefore, continuing to hold off on a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will veer westerly by this evening, and then quickly to the NNE by midnight or so, coming back down to a moderate breeze. By this afternoon, seas at 2-4 ft increase to 3-5 ft waves over the coastal waters, up to 5- 6 ft waves over the offshore waters. These seas come back down to 2- 4 ft everywhere during the overnight hours tonight. Friday through Monday In contrast to the summerlike weather pattern we experienced throughout most of April, the weekend will feature a quickly changing weather pattern more typical of February or March. Post-frontal northerly winds as high as 15-20 knots Friday morning should diminish substantially during the afternoon as a weak bubble of high pressure moves across the coastal Carolinas. By sunrise Saturday southerly winds should be back in place behind the departing high. Winds should veer southwesterly Saturday night with and remain there until the next cold front arrives from the west Monday. Rain chances will also increase, peaking Sunday night into Monday as the front moves across the area. Synoptic winds should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, however models indicate some potential that thunderstorm clusters could produce locally stronger wind gusts, perhaps developing as early as Saturday afternoon or evening. Any strong convective wind gusts will be handled by Special Marine Warnings rather than by Small Craft Advisories or Gale Warnings. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6am EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6am EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. Marine None. |
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