Marine Weather Net

Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast


TONIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ256 Forecast Issued: 628 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Sun...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.
Sun Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers. A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds And Sw 2 Ft At 4 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers And Tstms Likely After Midnight.
Thu...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely.
Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
810pm EDT Sat July 13 2024

Synopsis
A heat wave will begin on Sunday and last into Thursday. Afternoon thunderstorms will only be scattered in coverage. The late week and weekend will feature better rain chances and less extreme heat.

Reduced Probability of Precipitation as diurnal convection comes to an end. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

Near Term - Through Sunday
Subtle changes aloft will signal a pattern change for the remainder of the weekend. Minor height falls tonight will come with the shifting of an elongated mid-level anticyclone's axis to offshore of the Carolinas. Subsidence and westerly downslope flow will help to dry out the mid-levels, lowering PWATs (Precipitable Waters) back to normal - around 1.6- 1.8" - all the way to the coast by sunrise tomorrow morning. Near the surface, the stalled front will continue to wash out into a surface trough over the Piedmont with weak high pressure remaining in place over the southern Appalachians. A generally southwest to south flow should prevail amidst the influence of Bermuda high pressure well offshore, with isolated to perhaps widely scattered convection developing along the sea breeze. Further inland, more typical isolated pop-up showers and storms are expected.

Temps this evening may be somewhat slow to fall during the first half of the night as anvil cirrus from earlier storms pass overhead. However, the cirrus should tend to thin and dissipate over time, with mainly clear skies otherwise supporting lows in the middle 70s away from the immediate coast. With mainly clear skies at sunrise and more capping aloft than over the past couple days, largely unrestricted heating should take place through Sunday morning before fair-weather cumulus begin to develop. Unfortunately, with the ridge axis nearby, highs reaching the mid-upper 90s are expected to return again with heat indices eclipsing 100F and potentially satisfying Heat Advisory criteria (heat indices of 105-109F for at least 2 hours). Confidence in this over a broad area is too low to issue an Advisory at this time, but one may be necessary in future updates.

Short Term - Sunday Night Through Monday Night
Piedmont trough at the surface and a mid level ridge centered near Fl for most of the period. There will not be much large scale forcing for thunderstorm development but mesoscale boundaries may still be plentiful Will carry diurnal POPs in the 30-40 range. A heat advisory is still anticipated as well likely 11AM-8PM Monday. A few locations will eclipse Heat Warning criteria of an apparent temp of 110 but it remains to be seen if such reading will be widespread enough for that headline.

Long Term - Tuesday Through Saturday
Heat peaks on Tuesday in the continued upper ridge/Piedmont trough setup. Tuesday seems a better candidate for and Excessive Heat Warning than Monday. Storm coverage will once again be confined to lower end chance POPs. The ridge aloft starts to weaken on Wednesday, probably capping us at the upper end of Advisory levels. Thunderstorm coverage may also increase slightly. Late in the period a front approaches. Guidance has some pretty high POPs that look suspicious especially with the antecedent ridge and how models may be pushing the boundary too far south. Have put a hard cap of 60 on POPs. The tempering of the heat late in the period seems more likely than some of the high rain chances/coverage depicted.

Marine
Through Sunday... Bermuda high pressure will take over as the dominant weather feature tonight, with southwest to south winds around 10-15 kts prevailing through the period. Waves subside gradually from 3-4 ft tonight to around 2-3 ft tomorrow. The primary contributor to the wave spectrum will be persistent southeasterly 3- 4 ft swells at 7-8 sec while a southerly 1-2 ft wind wave develops during the day on Sunday.

Sunday night through Thursday... True summertime pattern locked in place through the period. Bermuda high pressure to the east, a Piedmont Trough to the west. This will keep marine winds out of the southwest and generally in the 10-15kt range. Late in the period the approach of a cold front may add a little bit of gustiness. Seas will be a combo of southerly wind waves and a lesser southeasterly swell.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Other - Rip Currents
There is a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Pender county Sunday resulting from a modest SE swell at 8 seconds. Moderate rip risk will continue elsewhere, where this SE swell will be either slightly lower in height or less perpendicular to the coast.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6am EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ106. SC...None.

Marine
None.