Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast
| Rest Of Tonight...Sw Winds 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Increasing To 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming Ne 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Tue...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming E 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 150am EDT Fri April 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly faster frontal passage Sunday, otherwise no significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards through Saturday. 2) A strong cold front, accompanied by scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, is expected to move west to east across the area during Sunday morning, before shifting off the coast by early afternoon. A period of below normal temperatures is expected Sunday night through Tuesday night. KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards through Saturday. A modest shortwave currently extending from New York State southward into North Carolina will move off the coast later today, helping nudge a subtle cold front down to the coast by mid morning. There will be little if any discernible airmass change with this feature and inland highs should once again rise toward 90 degrees, only slightly below daily records at Florence and Lumberton. The light north to northwest wind behind the front should delay in the inland progress of the seabreeze this afternoon. This reduction in cooler marine influence will give Wilmington a chance to run toward at least tying a record high today. Record highs today and Saturday: ................Fri April 17...Sat April 18 Wilmington......89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton.......91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence........93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach..87 in 1995...89 in 1967 Another factor to watch closely will be dry air brought down from aloft via deep daytime mixing expected to reach 8000-9000 feet AGL. Dewpoints inland from the seabreeze will fall into the 50s this afternoon, with some models showing some 40s possible along the I-95 corridor. This will drop minimum relative humidity down to near 25 percent during the mid afternoon hours. Fire weather concerns today may be alleviated in part by light wind speeds. Behind the departing shortwave, the upper level ridge will build overhead tomorrow with 500 mb heigheights rising by about 20 meters versus today. With 850 mb temps anticipated to rise to +17C Saturday, highs inland should reach the lower 90s - again threatening records at Florence and Lumberton. Slightly stronger wind speeds on Saturday along with still-low humidity could enhance adverse fire weather conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front, accompanied by scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, is expected to move west to east across the area during Sunday morning and early afternoon, before shifting off the coast by mid afternoon. A period of below normal temperatures is expected Sunday night through Tuesday night. H5 trough moving across the Eastern U.S. on Sunday will drive a cold front across the forecast area, and offshore during early Sunday afternoon. Basin average Quantitative Precipitation Forecast remains limited given the limited return flow prior to the front's arrival and quick progression. However, NBM probabilities for >0.01" have increased some recently, especially across southeast NC zones. Either way, any rainfall with this system will not provide any drought relief especially with deep drying expected by 21Z Sunday-00Z Monday. Based on Thursday's updated drought monitor most of the forecast area is highlighted in a severe drought, along with portions of Marlboro County in an extreme drought. Also, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two given a brief ribbon of instability just ahead/along the front as it moves across the forecast area. Otherwise, the air-mass in the wake of Sunday's frontal passage will result in cooler conditions with below normal temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday night. The sheltered/cold spots could drop down into the upper 30s late Monday night into Tuesday morning given optimal radiational cooling. Temperatures will rebound back above normal Wednesday into the end of the upcoming week. Marine Through tonight...Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore will help maintain light to moderate southwest winds across the Carolina coastal and offshore waters. A very weak cold front will make it down to the beaches between 8-10am this morning, but the seabreeze circulation developing by noon should overwhelm any brief period of offshore winds. Nearshore winds should turn firmly southerly by early afternoon with speeds 10-15 knots. Yesterday's strong seabreeze will keep seas near 4 feet early this morning. A 2 foot 9 second east-southeasterly swell will combine with local wind chop for seas this afternoon mainly in the 3 foot range, subsiding to only 2 feet inside 20 miles from shore tonight. Saturday through Tuesday A weak SWly pressure gradient will prevail Saturday with seas around 2 ft across the coastal waters and around 3 ft offshore. The pressure gradient will increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of a cold front. The front is expected to move off the coast early afternoon, and across the offshore waters by mid afternoon. Cold air advection across relatively warmer SSTs will allow winds in the wake of the cold front to increase. Gusty N to NEly winds will continue across the coastal waters through Sunday evening with Small Craft conditions possible for a short timeframe. Winds farther offshore will remain higher through a good part of Sunday night. The N-NEly fetch will likely lead to steeper waves near/along the Gulf Stream. Marine conditions will improve during Monday, though a minor surge could bump things up a notch Monday night before improving again during Tuesday as surface high pressure moves overhead. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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