Marine Weather Net

Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast


OVERNIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

MON

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

MON NIGHT

SW
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

TUE

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ256 Forecast Issued: 1005 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Overnight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.
Mon...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt In The Morning. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.
Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Tue Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Wed Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. A Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Thu...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Increasing To 25 To 30 Kt. Seas 7 To 10 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely.
Fri...Se Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Becoming S 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 7 To 10 Ft, Subsiding To 6 To 8 Ft After Midnight. Showers Likely. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
730pm EDT Sunday September 25 2022

Synopsis
A cold front approaches late tonight. The front won't shift offshore until late Monday. Cooler temperatures will develop Tuesday. What should be Hurricane Ian will approach the Florida Gulf coast by Thursday, possibly bringing weather impacts to the Carolinas late in the week.

No changes to the forecast with the mid evening update.

Near Term - Through Monday
Multiple impulses will move through a deepening long wave trough across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic over the next couple of days. One 500 mb disturbance moving eastward tonight will reach as far south as North Carolina, helping nudge a weak surface cold front east toward the coast. Upstream radars currently show scattered showers falling mainly from mid level clouds enhanced by steep lapse rates between 850 to 500 mb. The best chance of any shower activity reaching the ground in our area will be from Bennettsville across Lumberton and Elizabethtown this evening where I have forecast Probability of Precipitation as high as 30 percent. Moisture becomes more meager to the south where even clouds may have a harder time sustaining themselves, and I have dry weather forecast south of a line from Florence and Marion to Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Forecast lows range from the lower 60s west of I-95 to around 70 on the coast.

The front should make it down to the beaches by daybreak with light westerly winds expected during the morning. However with no cold advection behind the front, highs Monday should soar into the mid- upper 80s. This should fuel the development of a healthy seabreeze circulation during the afternoon, pushing the effective position of the front 10-30 miles inland by late in the day. While 00z HREF ensembles earlier indicated isolated convection could develop along the seabreeze Monday, it now appears a strong enough subsidence inversion will build in behind the departing upper disturbance to cap off daytime cumulus, maintaining dry weather.

Short Term - Monday Night Through Wednesday
Monday night into Tuesday the cold front should move through the area paired with an upper level trough that will stick around through the short term. There's still some uncertainty which how low temps will get Tuesday night behind the front, with maybe even upper 40s possible inland if clouds clear out quick enough. Guidance at the moment is still suggesting moderate mid to upper level cloud cover though so we'll have to see. Dry air behind the front will keep POPs low as Canadian high pressure builds down from the north.

Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Sunday
Ian will be the focus for the latter part of next week as we continue to monitor where it tracks. There is increasing confidence that come mid week we could start to see tropical moisture pushing in from the south. This paired with a stationary in the area should increase chances for rain throughout the long term.

Marine
Through Monday... Southwest winds will increase this evening to 15- 20 kt, and even a solid 20 knots north of Cape Fear. This is in advance of a cold front making its way eastward through the interior sections of the Carolinas. The front will reach the beaches by daybreak as winds diminish and shift westerly. Monday's seabreeze should be strong enough to erase the front's eastward progress, resetting the effective frontal position inland from the coast and allowing winds to again become south to southwest across the coastal waters.

Observed seas currently range from 2-3 feet but should build toward 4 feet later this evening mainly in a 4-5 second wind chop. While quite uncomfortable for smaller boats, this remains below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Lesser winds speeds and sea height are expected on Monday.

Monday Night through Friday... Winds will shift to northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots once the front moves offshore and high pressure starts to build in, with seas largely 2 to 3 feet. Into Wednesday, we could start to see Small Craft Advisory conditions for an extended period of time, with seas possibly building to 10 feet paired with sustained winds approaching 25 to 30 knots with higher gusts. The onset time and extent of these conditions will be dictated by Ian's track and the pressure gradient between it and the high, which should become clearer over the next couple days.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.

Marine
None.