Marine Weather Net

Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

NW
WINDS
25 - 30
KNOTS

TUE

N
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

TUE NIGHT

SW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

WED

W
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ256 Forecast Issued: 125 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
Rest Of Tonight...Nw Winds 25 To 30 Kt, Becoming N 20 To 25 Kt Late. Seas 3 To 5 Ft.
Tue...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Subsiding To 2 To 3 Ft In The Afternoon.
Tue Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Wed Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Thu...N Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Ne In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Gusts Up To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain After Midnight.
Fri...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. Rain Likely.
Fri Night...E Winds 15 Kt, Becoming Ne After Midnight. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Showers Likely.
Sat...N Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.
Sat Night...N Winds 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1026pm EDT Monday Mar 18 2024

Synopsis
Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday night. Milder and continued dry through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast Atlantic coast.

Gusts along the I-95 corridor have increased to around 30 mph. Updated forecast to reflect current obs (mainly an adjustment to timing). Gusts should decrease late tonight as a shallow surface inversion limits mixing. Radar shows widespread weak echos which appear to be deepening as the upper level low converges with the existing surface boundary.

Near Term - Through Tuesday
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well offshore, while weak low pressure lingers across Appalachia and the Piedmont. The frontal passage from earlier this morning has allowed for very dry air to settle at the surface. Dewpoints this morning were in the mid 50s, and have now dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Ironically enough, clouds aloft have filled in over the last couple of hours, as a potent shortwave aloft starts to drop into the area from the northwest.

Said shortwave will quickly sweep through the area tonight. Cloud cover will continue to thicken aloft, despite the very dry air at the surface. There's a subtle hint of moisture convergence north of Cape Fear after 10 PM, and the atmosphere will try to squeeze out whatever water it can. However, the saturation is very thin, lingering at around 700mb. Surface dewpoints continue to plummet into the lower 20s, so whatever falls out of the cloud may dry out before it hits the surface ("virga" being the technical term for that phenomena). Some folks may see a couple sprinkles at best before 2am tonight across the coastal regions of southeast NC.

Elsewhere, lows tonight bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s. The temperatures meet Frost Advisory criteria inland, but tonight looks looks much too dry and windy to actually issue one. Probabilistic guidance suggests a modest chance (30-50%) of temperatures actually near or even just below freezing across certain parts of Darlington and Marlboro Counties. I'm not so confident on that idea, given the elevated winds, and if anybody does hit the freezing mark, it probably would only be for an hour or so. Therefore, holding off on a Freeze Warning tonight.

Plenty of sunshine on the way for Tuesday, but it'll be on the chilly side, with high pressure from the Midwest having an influence. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 50s in what looks to be the coolest day of the week.

Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday
Not much of note this period with the region under the influence of weak surface high pressure, allowing for continued dry weather over the local area. Some moderation of temps noted as thicknesses increase...highs in the 60s/70s unlike the 50s forecasted for Tuesday. A weak front moving through Wednesday night will lead to slightly cooler temps Thursday than Wednesday, but still near normal.

Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday
Focus in the long term period will be on developing Gulf of Mexico surface low pressure tracking northeastward. In general guidance seems a bit more progressive with this southern stream system now, however there remains large differences in timing. Enough confidence to retain likely Probability of Precipitation for Friday and Friday night, with the rain moderate to heavy at times and a slight chance of thunder. A drying trend ensues over the weekend, but it remains unclear how long the rain will linger especially on Saturday should the mid-level trough slow down. Temps fairly close to normal for late March this period.

Marine
Through Tuesday...Pressure gradient increases tonight with an upper level system moving through, bringing stiff northwesterly winds into the fold. These winds will initiate a Small Craft Advisory at 11pm EDT tonight, going through noon EDT Tuesday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts hit gale criteria tonight, particularly over the northeast SC coastal waters, but it's not quite consistent enough to upgrade these to a Gale Warning at this time. These offshore winds cause wind waves to poke up at 3-4ft. After the upper level disturbance moves through, winds eventually decrease to 10-15kts from the southwest by Tuesday afternoon. Seas decrease to 1-2ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Couple more SCA (Small Craft Advisory) headlines expected this period. First is Tuesday night as the pressure gradient increases in SW flow ahead of the next weak front. Somewhat improving conditions then for Wednesday and Thursday, before winds and seas ramp up Friday into Saturday in association with developing low pressure sliding up the SE coast. By early Saturday expect seas up to 8-9 ft and winds gusting to ~25 kt.

Fire Weather
A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity tomorrow afternoon will fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds will hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest winds will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later in the day. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible during the late afternoon and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to increased fire danger on Tuesday.

NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
NC...None. SC...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.