Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC Marine Forecast
| Overnight...Ne Winds 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Tue Night...S Winds 5 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 Ft. |
| Wed Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. |
| Thu...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Increasing To 20 To 25 Kt In The Afternoon And Evening, Then Becoming W 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 5 Ft, Building To 5 To 8 Ft. Showers Through The Day, Then A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sat...W Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 20 To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 926pm EST Monday Feb 6 2023 Synopsis High pressure will build over the area from the north and west through Tuesday bringing fairly seasonable temperatures. The high will move offshore Wednesday and Thursday, raising temperatures above normal. Moisture will also increase ahead of a cold front Thursday that will bring showers and storms on Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for the weekend along with a return of dry conditions. High pressure to the northwest will continue expanding southeast overnight. Minimal changes for the evening update needed. Did pull mention of fog, although think isolated patches could develop along the coast. However, conditions would really limit duration and any visibility restrictions are likely to be above 3 miles. Near Term - Through Tuesday Benign weather through theNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight eigheights build aloft and surface high pressure pushes in from the west. This should move overhead come Tuesday morning before pushing offshore. Gusts should gradually calm into the evening hours, winds becoming calm and variable overnight. This paired with lingering low- level moisture could lead to patchy fog formation, particularly in the early morning hours right before sunrise. Cirrus should also start filtering in around this time, but expecting little to no influence on lows tonight. Went a bit lower than the previous forecast with much of the area in the low-mid 30s, a bit higher along the SC coast and a hit colder in traditionally colder spots. Surface winds become light and southerly/southeasterly throughout Tuesday. Highs in the low to mid 60s, perhaps a bit warmer with the onshore flow developing later in the day. Short Term - Tuesday Night Through Thursday Low amplitude upper ridge will extend north across the area thruout this period. At the same time, successive upper s/w trough. will remain well west to north of the FA as the track ne- ward from the Southwest States. Looking at a general warmup during this period with surface high pressure moving offshore from the Southeast States Tuesday night then stalling offshore Wednesday thru Thu. Backdoorish type cold front to drop south to the NC-VA border Wednesday then retreating back as a warm front Wednesday night thru Thu. Milder air works in for Wednesday and even warmer air advects in for Thu. Widespread upper 60s to around 70 for highs Wednesday will be eclipsed with Thu highs in the mid 70s. With winds generally onshore SE-S, max temps will be considerably lower at the beaches given SSTs in the 50s. Looking at dry conditions thru early Thu. However, the upper ridge axis does move off the East Coast during Thu allowing more clouds to encroach the FA as Gulf moisture opens up. An approaching cold front from the west late Thu will result in increasing chances for pcpn, especially west of the I-95 corridor. Mins Tuesday night will run in the widespread 30s with Wednesday night a good 10 to possibly 15 degrees hier from Tuesday night mins. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Monday The successive s/w trough. passage W thru N of the FA during the short-term will have carved out a positive and amplified upper trough to our west by the start of this long term period. Approaching cold front will temporarily stall just west of the FA Thu night into Fri. Embedded vorts within the upper trough will move across the FA Thu night with increased Pops. During Fri into early Sat, models indicate a rather strong 3H jet with the Carolinas located in the right rear quadrant Fri afternoon and night. Should see ample ie. 7H UVVs as a result. Have continued with slight chance for thunder FRi into Fri night with the question residing of whether enough instability will be avbl. The southerly winds will advect a good chunk of the surface based marine layer inland which will put a damper on avbl instability. Temps Thu night thru Fri night will continue at 10 to 20 degrees above normal, especially the night time lows. Various model soundings and time height displays indicate a 50+ kt low level jet, ie. 850mb and may possibly manifest as low as 900 mb. As a result, a strong shower with precipitation loading could produce a damaging wind gust without the presence of thunder. Given the dynamics, beneficial rains will likely result and continue to put a dent in the drought across portions of the FA. The upper trough becomes neutral as it progresses to and across the FA FRi night thru Sat. The CFP slated for late Fri night will end the precipitation threat but clouds will persist during Sat until the upper trough axis swings off the Carolina Coast late Sat. Lows Sat morning will occur around dawn but temps not climbing much during Sat due to the ensuing Cold Air Advection and breezy conditions. Any insolation will help counter some of this CAA. Temps return to normal late Sat thru Sunday with high pressure surface and aloft working its way to and across the FA. The high slides overhead and off the coast by late MON with temps moderating to slightly above normal with continued sunny skies. Marine Through Tuesday...High pressure builds tonight moving overhead Tuesday as winds become largely calm. Wind direction veers from Nw'ly to ENE'ly by Tuesday morning, then more S'ly later in the day. Wind speeds at or below 10 kts. Wave heigheights 1-3 ft amongst a diminishing NW wind wave and a 8-9 second SE swell. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Center of Surface high pressure to park offshore from the Carolinas Tuesday night thru Wednesday night with light WAA (Warm Air Advection - the movement of warm air) type SE-S flow becoming more dominate across the waters during this time period. Speeds will be on the lower side of guidance given SSTs in the 50s. The gradient tightens Thu into Thu night ahead of the approaching cold front which results with increasing southerly flow under continued WAA. This may eventually push winds to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Thu night. Rather benign short period seas to dominate the start of this period. However, models have a backdoor NE 12+ second period swell that invades the FA Wednesday thru Thu. Should stay below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds Tuesday night thru Wednesday night but come Thu with increasing wind driven waves combining in. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds may be met. Otherwise, it may take until Fri thru early Sat with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds and resulting SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas. Pcpn threat will run from Thu night thru Fri night. NOAA Wilmington NC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories SC...None. NC...None. Marine None. |
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