South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 722am EDT Wednesday May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday with isolated severe weather possible. - 2) Unsettled weather conditions this weekend with a stalled front nearby. KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday with isolated severe weather possible. High pressure extending across the western Atlantic will favor a south/southwest flow across the Southeast United States well in advance of cold front approaching the region, driven by a longwave trough advancing across the Great Lakes region toward the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast Coast. Latest guidance continues to support Deep moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) ~2.0 inches and surface dewpts in lower 70s) arriving across the region well in advance of the approaching cold front, setting the stage for increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms as the local area remains warm-sectored for much of the day. The main issue continues to revolve around limited instability during timing of enhanced deep-layer shear and forcing associated with low-level jetting while a strong h25 jet core passing inland and north of the region. Latest guidance suggests increasing levels of isentropic lift supportive of nearly widespread cloud cover locally and pre- frontal convection within the warm-sector ongoing upstream and/or developing across the far interior during morning hours, which would limit instability across parts the Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia to some degree prior to typical peak heating hours Thursday afternoon. However, some guidance does indicate an axis of modest instability (SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg) developing across Southeast Georgia into coastal parts of southern Southeast South Carolina, where a few breaks in cloud cover and/or warm air advection allow for surface temps to reach the mid-upper 80s during afternoon hours. Surface temps are likely to become warmest near the I-95 corridor in Southeast Georgia, possibly reaching the lower 90s before the onset on shower and thunderstorm activity. The combination of deep moisture (PWATs (Precipitable Waters) 2.0 inches/surface dewpts lower 70s) and 0-6 km Bulk Shear between 50-60 kt supports a severe weather threat locally on Thursday, dependent on surface heating/instability realized Thursday afternoon and the timing of cold frontal passage. which should occur starting around Thursday evening. Mostly unidirectional wind profiles indicated by soundings and h85-h5 crossover winds along with low-level lapse rates around 7 C/km support primarily a strong/damaging wind concern for a few thunderstorms that become strong/severe within clusters and/or small linear segments. However, there is an non-zero risk for a tornado across Southeast Georgia should ample instability develop ahead of an afternoon sea breeze promoting a near surface backing wind component. The bulk of thunderstorm activity should remain sub-severe, but capable of producing brief heavy downpours within a deep moisture environment, especially if the progression of the arriving cold front slows. The Storm Prediction Center continues to place a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather across the entire area Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather conditions this weekend with a stalled front nearby. Forecast confidence is quite low post cold frontal passage this weekend. Latest trends suggest some drying across northern areas on Friday, while precipitation activity holds across southern areas into Saturday as h5 vort energy ripples across a stalling front that attempts to lift back north across northern Florida/southern Georgia and into the local area. The position of the front will be key in regards to shower/thunderstorm activity each day during the weekend, and could potentially set up an unsettled precipitation pattern until another front arrives from the west early next week. Severe weather risk remains low this weekend, but gusty winds and brief heavy downpours are possible with shower/thunderstorm activity through the weekend. Marine Southerly flow will strengthen tonight as a cold front approaches. We're still showing a few short periods of 25 kt wind gusts later tonight and then Thursday afternoon, but it seems too marginal to pull the trigger on Small Craft Advisories just yet. NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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