South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
|Rest Of Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...Se Winds 10 Kt, Becoming S After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Tue...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Charleston SC
916pm EST Thu Dec 1 2022
High pressure will prevail across the region tonight, then will retreat over the North Atlantic through Friday night. A front will then shift into the area Saturday and Saturday night, and could linger in the vicinity into early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
The boundary layer has decoupled away from the coast this evening with calm winds being reported across much of the interior. Despite the calm winds, temperature falls have been very uneven since sunset owing to various degree of cirrus passing through aloft. This cirrus is expected to slowly expand and thicken overnight as marine-based stratocumulus tries to the approach the coast, especially the Georgia coast, prior to daybreak. This should at least temper the radiative scheme somewhat especially during the diurnal minimum just before sunrise. Lows were adjusted slightly in a number of spots, raising them in some while lowering them by as much as a half a category in others. For example, the majority of the reliable mesonet stations and RAWS in the Francis Marion National Forest were already in the mid 30s at 02/02z. A few upper 20s could certainly occur in this region ans other historically colder spots as noted from the afternoon forecaster. However, lows should generally range from the lower-mid 30s well inland to the upper 50s/near 50 at the beaches.
Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Sunday
Friday and Friday night: The day will begin with high pressure centered near the Delmarva before shifting off to the northeast into the evening. A subtle coastal trough will reside near the coast but will gradually wash out as the high moves away and allows the low level flow to turn from northeasterly to easterly. A few models still hint at the potential for weak isolated showers within the coastal trough that could push onshore in the afternoon hours. The forecast continues to be dry, but it isn't uncommon to see a few light returns in a scenario such as this. Cloud cover will increase through this period as the flow turns more onshore. Temperatures will be warmer, with mid to upper 60s in many places for highs and upper 40s to low 50s for lows.
Saturday through Sunday: An upstream cold front will draw closer to the area Saturday, then should push southward through the area into Sunday. Saturday is expected to be dry as the precipitation along the front diminishes the closer it gets to the area. Confidence in the Sunday forecast is on the low side thanks to significant differences between the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the ECMWF. The GFS brings shortwave energy through the progressive westerly flow aloft and result in a widespread rain event late Sunday. However, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is dry. Saturday should be quite warm with highs in the low to mid 70s, with a cool down to near normal temps for Sunday.
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
The forecast remains a bit uncertain starting early next week. The front should shift to the south Sunday night and Monday before eventually lifting back north as a warm front into the middle of next week. Until the front lifts back north there could be periods of showers, and rain chances are in the 20-30 percent range. Temperatures will likely be near normal values Monday, then become well above normal once the area is on the south side of the boundary. Another frontal zone could approach from the west late in the forecast period.
Tonight: Northeast winds will average 15-20 kt overnight except 10-15 kt along the South Santee to Edisto Beach nearshore leg with 5-10 kt in the Charleston Harbor. Elevated seas will continues with 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Georgia offshore waters through tonight.
Friday through Tuesday: Modest northeast winds will prevail Friday, turning easterly and then southeasterly Friday night. Expect light southerly flow starting Saturday, until a front passes through Saturday night and allows winds to turn northerly and northeasterly into early next week. The front will lift back northward late in the period, bringing flow back out of the south. Residual 6 ft seas are expected in the Georgia offshore waters for much of Friday into Friday evening. Thereafter, winds and seas will be well below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the forecast period.
Temperature data at the KSAV ASOS are suspect. Parts are on order and will arrive next week. Use data with caution.
NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 11pm EST Friday for AMZ374.