South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
|Today...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tonight...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Mon Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 2 Ft.|
|Tue...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Tue Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming W After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Showers With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening, Then Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight.|
|Wed...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Wed Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Thu Night...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Mariners Are Reminded That Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Charleston SC
333am EDT Sunday Mar 29 2020
Very warm high pressure will prevail today ahead of a cold front that will cross the area tonight. High pressure will briefly return Monday, before low pressure crosses the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will return for mid to late week.
.NEAR TERM Through Tonight
Today: A mid-level ridge located over FL will steer low pressure far to our north, over the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure will prevail in the Atlantic while a cold front approaches from the west. Both synoptic models and most of the CAMs indicate showers in advance of the front will dissipate before they reach our area late in the afternoon or early evening. Given the low probability of measurable rainfall, we only went with 10% POPs far inland. At most, these locations may see a few sprinkles. Otherwise, the bulk of our area will be dry with increasing clouds. The heat will continue ahead of the front. Warm air advection, thickness values, and 850 mb temperatures will lead to another day with temperatures well into the 80s or lower 90s away from the beaches. Several records are in jeopardy of being broken. Additionally, gusty winds are expected this afternoon, especially along the coast.
Tonight: Mid-level zonal flow develops over the Southeast late. The cold front is expected to move through our area after midnight, then quickly offshore. Behind the front, high pressure will start to move in from the west. Dry conditions are expected with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures won't cool down too much behind the front. Lows will generally be in the 60s.
Short Term - Monday Through Wednesday
Quiet and dry weather expected on Monday as weak high pressure prevails. Should see a mix of sun and high clouds during the daytime hours, before cloud cover increases and thickens overnight in advance of the next weather system. While temperatures will be cooler than previous days, highs will still be able to reach the 80s - several degrees above late March normals. Lows Monday night will be in the upper 50s/low 60s.
Surface low pressure located over the Gulf coast states Tuesday morning will track east towards and into the area through the day. Aloft, a healthy mid level shortwave will shift into the eastern half of the country. Increasing moisture and forcing for ascent will allow showers and some thunderstorms to spread into the area from the west, primarily in the afternoon and evening. We maintained a similar Probability of Precipitation scheme, with the forecast featuring likely to categorical PoPs, highest inland. Other aspects of the forecast (temperatures and severe weather potential specifically) will be highly dependent on the track of the low. Most models have majority of the forecast area getting in the warm sector. Bulk shear is supportive of storm organization, but the instability progs are not that impressive. The best chance for seeing severe weather would be across the southern zones where ingredients are most favorable. Will continue to highlight this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The primary threats would be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
The low will lift away from the area on Wednesday as high pressure expands into the region from the west. Mid and upper level moisture will strip out pretty quickly, so we have a dry forecast in place. Clouds will likely linger in the morning but will diminish with time. It will be much cooler, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s in most locations.
Long Term - Wednesday Night Through Saturday
High pressure will be the dominant feature for the long term period, which will maintain quiet and dry weather. Should see plenty of sunshine, although clouds will increase late in the week. Temperatures slightly below normal on Thursday will warm for Friday and Saturday as heigheights build aloft.
Today: High pressure will be located to our east while a cold front approaches from the west. The interaction between these two features will elevate the surface pressure gradient, causing winds to increase. The strongest winds are expected in the late afternoon, especially along the Charleston County waters and in the Charleston Harbor. At this time it appears gusts should be just under 25 kt, so we did not issue any Small Craft Advisories. But this will need to be re-evaluated in the next few hours.
Tonight: The cold front will cross through the waters after midnight, causing winds to veer to the west and then ease.
Monday through Friday: High pressure on Monday will provide quiet marine conditions. Low pressure will then track east towards and eventually over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens, and a Small Craft Advisory could be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday for portions of the waters. No additional marine concerns are expected for late week as high pressure expands into the region.
Record high maximum and high minimum temperatures today.
KCHS: 87 (2012) / 67 (1997)
KSAV: 90 (1907) / 67 (1991)
KCXM: 91 (1907) / 68 (1997)
NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.