South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft After Midnight.|
|Wed...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft, Building To 3 To 4 Ft In The Afternoon.|
|Wed Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon.|
|Thu Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms.|
|Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Tstms. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Morning.|
|Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sat Night...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms.|
|Sun Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms. Mariners Are Reminded That Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Tstms.|
| Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722pm EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2020
High pressure will remain offshore through late week, while a trough of low pressure settles inland. A cold front will approach the region over the weekend and could linger in the vicinity into early next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning
Early this evening: No changes to the going forecast. Diurnal cumulus field has quickly dissipated with the loss of heating and we will continue to see scattered cirrus move through.
Tranquil weather expected as low and mid-level high pressure hangs on. Although there will likely be a few clouds, mainly the high variety, and a bit more boundary layer flow, we continued to trend toward the cooler model guidance overnight with low temperatures about 60-65 degrees inland and lower to mid 70s at the coast.
Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Friday
Wednesday: High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain rain- free conditions through Wednesday evening. The ongoing warming trend will continue, and temperatures should top out in the middle/upper 80s at many locations. Exceptions could include a few locations around 90F well inland and in the lower 80s on the beaches.
Wednesday night: Moisture will begin to spread into the region from the south/southwest, and a few showers could develop over far southern/inland counties late. Low temperatures should range from the upper 60s inland to the middle 70s at the coast.
Thursday and Thursday night: A broad, weak, negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft will lift northeast from the Gulf of Mexico northeast across the area. Weak forcing for ascent and transport of PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 2 inches will translate to an increasing chance for showers/thunderstorms across the region, especially across southern/coastal areas. Afternoon PoPS range from around 50 percent south to around 20 percent far north/inland. Instability remains unimpressive, so the potential for severe weather should remain low. Afternoon temperatures should top out in the lower/middle 80s south to the middle/upper 80s north, although temperatures will depend on timing/coverage of convection. Lows Thursday night will range from around 70s inland to the lower/middle 70s closer to the coast.
Friday: A weak upper trough and a moist environment featuring PWAT (Precipitable Water) values around 2 inches will persist, so showers/thunderstorms should readily develop as the region warms/destabilizes. Current forecasts cap max Probability of Precipitation around 50 percent, but locally greater coverage of showers/thunderstorms is possible especially during the afternoon. While the potential for severe weather should remain low, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday
A cold front will slowly approach the region over the weekend and then could stall in the vicinity early next week. Meanwhile, a low over the central Gulf of Mexico will lift north towards the U.S. coast, likely near LA/TX. A lot of uncertainty during this period, so forecast confidence is low. The best rain chances appear to be Saturday with convergence along the inland trough/front and then Monday when tropical moisture could spread into the area. Coverage will be highest during the day when instability is greatest. Temperatures are expected to be around normal.
Tonight: High pressure will extend across the area from the east keeping generally southerly winds 15 kt or less across the local waters. Swells will subside a bit leading to a slight decrease in significant wave heights, staying no higher than 4 ft.
Wednesday through Sunday: On the periphery of Atlantic high pressure, southerly winds will prevail through the period. Expect enhancement near the coast due to the sea breeze each afternoon/early evening and modest nocturnal surging overnight through the period. Winds remain capped at 20 kts, and seas remain below 6 ft through the period, so the probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain low.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
The upcoming lunar perigee, full moon and persistent onshore winds will result in elevated tide cycles into the weekend. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible during the evening high tides, mainly along the South Carolina coast.
NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.