Marine Weather Net

South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast


THIS AFTERNOON

NE
WINDS
10
KNOTS

TONIGHT

NE
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

SUN

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SUN NIGHT

NE
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
AMZ350 Forecast Issued: 306 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
This Afternoon...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds.
Tonight...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Ft, Building To 4 To 5 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds, Becoming E 4 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers After Midnight.
Sun...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 5 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming E 6 Ft At 7 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Sun Night...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 6 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 7 Ft At 7 Seconds, Becoming E 7 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Chance Of Showers.
Mon...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 5 To 6 Ft In The Afternoon. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 8 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Mon Night...E Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft, Building To 5 To 7 Ft After Midnight. Wave Detail: E 6 Ft At 8 Seconds, Becoming Se 7 Ft At 9 Seconds. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Tue...Se Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 5 To 7 Ft.
Tue Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 5 To 6 Ft.
Wed...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Showers.
Wed Night...Se Winds 10 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
419pm EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will slowly move through our area into Sunday. High pressure will then return through the middle of next week. Another cold front could approach towards the end of next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Sunday Morning
Today: The mid-level wave that was located over New England this morning has since exited the coast of ME, with surface high pressure that was over the Great Lakes now centered across eastern Ohio. The eastward translation of the surface ridge has already had an impact on a stationary front across southern NC. This front has again started to push south/ southwest into northern SC this afternoon as a cold front while remaining stalled across the upstate of SC creating an inverted V frontal pattern. This has allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s across the midlands and coastal plain of SC. A widespread cumulus field also delineates the front quite nicely. There have also been a few weak showers in GA this afternoon, but the coverage/ intensity/ and duration has been weak and short as dry air entrainment is likely responsible for the demise of updrafts today (per KCHS 02.12z sounding illustrating substantial dry air in the 700/500 mb layer).

Tonight: Surface high pressure will move east this evening and be east of the Appalachians by late tonight. A secondary wedge front will then head southwest and push the stalled boundary currently across southern NC southwest. Winds and clouds will increase on the cool side of the boundary with lows around 60 degrees.

Short Term - 6am Sunday Morning Through Tuesday
The mid-levels Sunday morning will consist of a ~589 dam High over southern FL and ridging extending northward into the Great Lakes Region. The High will become more concentrated into Tuesday, strengthening to ~592 dam and shifting off the Southeast U.S. Meanwhile, the ridge will strengthen/amplify, with its axis stretching north into the Northeast U.S. At the surface, a weak stationary front should be located near our SC/GA border Sunday morning. This front should dissipate over land areas by Sunday evening. Though, it should remain just offshore through Sunday night. Then, surface troughing is expected to be just offshore Monday and Tuesday. Additionally, High pressure will be centered over NY Sunday morning. It's expected to shift off the New England Coast by late Monday, remaining far offshore on Tuesday. Models indicate increased moisture around the front, and then the remnants of it. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) should generally get into the 1.25-1.5" range, which is a bit above normal for this time of year. But there are hints that there could be pockets of even higher values. The synoptic models continue to have isolated to scattered light showers associated with the front Sunday, while the long- range CAMs are much drier. Given the dry air in place across our area due to the ongoing drought, we went with the CAMs, which limit most of the light showers to the coastal waters, with some showers possibly moving onshore at the beaches and just inland through Sunday night. Monday the models point towards a convergence of moisture and isolated to scattered showers near our SC/GA border. This is generally where we have a bit higher POPs, but adjustments will be needed with future model runs. Monday night starts to trend drier, continuing into Tuesday. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast should be minimal during the short term time period. Highs temperatures will be near normal on Sunday. But they should rise again on Monday, back to the upper 70s to maybe lower 80s. Tuesday they should be around 80 degrees.Lows Sunday night should generally be in the upper mid to upper 50s far inland, the lower 60s closer to the coast, and possibly the mid 60s at the beaches. They'll be several degrees warmer Monday night, mainly in the 60s. Finally, it's expected to be breezy at the beaches late through Monday night, possibly persisting into Tuesday.

Long Term - Tuesday Night Through Saturday
Mid-level ridging will persist just off the East Coast Tuesday night, then shift offshore on Wednesday. This will cause flow to turn more to the southwest where it will continue into Thursday. Weak ridging tries to rebuild over the Southeast U.S. Friday and Saturday. Surface troughing should persist just off the Southeast U.S. through Thursday. A weak cold front could move through on Friday, then stall over or near our area on Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Marine
Today And Tonight
Surface high pressure is currently located across eastern Ohio this afternoon and is forecast to move east overnight. As this occurs, a cold front currently located near the SC/ NC border will move south/ southwest late tonight. Behind the cold front, winds over the water will increase in speed out of the northeast with wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Seas will also slowly start to increase 3 to 5 feet. The front will likely cross the SC waters between 1 and 6 AM, and then the GA waters between 4 and 9 AM.

Extended Marine: A weak stationary front should be located near our SC/GA border Sunday morning. This front should dissipate over land areas by Sunday evening. Though, it should remain further offshore through Sunday night. Then, surface troughing is expected to be further offshore Monday and Tuesday. Additionally, High pressure will be centered over NY Sunday morning. It's expected to shift off the New England Coast by late Monday, remaining far offshore on Tuesday. Overall, this synoptic pattern will cause gusty NE winds Sunday, then trending lower Sunday night. Though, they'll remain elevated Monday and Tuesday, before easing on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of the ocean zones through Tuesday night. They should drop off within 20 nm on Wednesday, but continue for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

Tides / Coastal Flooding
Strong northeast winds will cause tidal anomalies to increase the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible with the Monday morning high tide for Charleston County and Coastal Colleton.

NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
GA...None. SC...None.

Marine
None.