South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
|Tonight...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts To 25 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft.|
|Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt, Diminishing To 5 To 10 Kt In The Afternoon. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Fri Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft.|
|Sat...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sat Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Sun...Ne Winds 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Slight Chance Of Rain.|
|Sun Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers.|
|Mon...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Mon Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft.|
|Tue Night...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.|
|Area Forecast Discussion|
National Weather Service Charleston SC
602pm EST Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis: Cool, dry high pressure will return through much of the weekend. High pressure will generally persist over the southeast states next week.
Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
Cloud cover has been a little slower in eroding from the west- southwest, so we have delayed any substantial clearing until the mid and late evening hours, leading to clear skies overnight. Not yet sure if this will have any bearing on low temps and/or the frost coverage, so no changes in those regards. Freeze warning remains in effect from Allendale to Candler and Bulloch starting at 3 am.
Previous discussion... Drier air is slowly working its way in from the west but it will likely be early evening before the overcast skies begin to erode from west to east. Most areas should be clear by shortly after midnight. Strong cold air advection will occur overnight, strengthening after midnight as winds veer to NW. 12Z models were considerably colder with overnight lows. We nudged temps down 1-2 degrees which now results in about two hours of 32 degree temperatures over far inland GA/SC zones. In collaboration with WFO CAE and FFC we issued a Freeze Warning for a handful of inland zones.
.SHORT TERM /6am FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will build into the area Friday and Saturday and then shift northeast of the area by Sunday.
Friday: Sinking motion in the wake of the strong system well to the northeast of the area and downslope low level wind flow off the southern Appalachians will result in clear skies. A cold start, some weak cold advection, and limited mixing due weak winds and a low sun angle will result in highs being in the mid to upper 50s. An ideal radiation cooling night is expected Friday night with light winds. Generally went a bit cooler than MAV and MET guidance and closer to the 00Z ECMWF ensemble MOS means which indicate a decent threat for frost except for areas near the coast and away from Lake Moultrie. For now, expanded the patchy and scattered frost areas a bit further south and east with this update, but not as far as might be needed. Not explicitly forecast, but there could be a few areas in the west that touch freezing late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Frost advisories will be likely and freeze watches/warnings will be possible. Lows are forecast to range from the mid 30s far inland to the lower and mid 40s near the coast.
Saturday and Sunday: Despite a cool start, some warm advection, abundant sunshine and better mixing will result in high temperatures on Saturday rising to the mid 60s in most areas. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night as isentropic lift along with increasing low level moisture commences. There could be some light rain that moves inland from the ocean on Sunday and included mention of a slight chance for rain generally within 20 miles of the coast. Further inland, feel that rain chances are too low to mention in the forecast. Despite more cloud cover, warm advection and a warmer start to the day will help high temperatures rise to the mid 60s in the northwest, north, and along the coast in South Carolina to the lower 70s in the south away from the coast
Long Term - Sunday Night Through Thursday
Dry weather will prevail through early next week as cooler high pressure moves into the area. A weak area of low pressure may develop offshore and cause a few showers mainly near the coast. Temperatures should mostly stay near normal.
Cold advection will occur tonight, maintaining winds 15-20 kt with some higher gusts. We held onto the Small Craft Advisory for Charleston nearshore waters until 4 am due mainly to lingering 6 ft seas though also better chances for some 25 kt wind gusts. Small Craft Advisory for offshore GA waters continues into Fri morning.
Winds and seas will decrease Friday as high pressure builds in and then generally light winds at or below 10 knots are expected through Sunday. A weak reinforcing cold front will move through the waters Sunday night and this will result in an uptick of the winds generally into the 10 to 15 knot range later Sunday night through Tuesday night with seas mainly from 2 to 4 feet during this period
NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
GA...Freeze Warning from 3am to 8am EST Friday for GAZ087-088-099- 100. SC...Freeze Warning from 3am to 8am EST Friday for SCZ040.
Small Craft Advisory until 4am EST Friday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 11am EST Friday for AMZ374