South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 219pm EDT Monday Jun 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms expected to continue this week within a persistent summertime pattern. - 2) Minor coastal flooding possible along the Charleston and Colleton county coast with the evening high tide. KEY MESSAGE 1: Periodic showers and thunderstorms expected to continue this week within a persistent summertime pattern. Aloft, the pattern will feature broad troughing across the eastern half of the CONUS through the middle of the week. The latter part of the week is less certain, but there is potential for short-lived ridging on Thursday ahead of a vort max lifting out of the western Gulf that shifts across the Deep South and Southeast through Friday. At the surface, a weak boundary is expected to stretch from the Lower MS Valley and across the forecast area through mid week. Today: Modestly drier air has pushed in from the north, leaving much of the forecast area in an airmass with precipitable water values of 1.5 inches or less. Model guidance captures this and keeps most, if not all, diurnal convection to the south and west of the forecast area. The best chance for isolated to scattered coverage later this afternoon and evening will be southeast GA, primarily along and south of I-16. Overall, not much activity expected today. Just highs rising into the low to mid 90s. Tuesday: Higher convective coverage looks likely as the deep layer flow takes on a more southwesterly component and allows a better feed of moisture into the region. Precipitable water values should surge back into the 2+ inches range. This improved moisture availability combined with the broad trough aloft and the surface front nearby should yield more shower and thunderstorm activity. Storm motion should be sufficient to prevent too much of a locally heavy rainfall threat, with the exception of locations that potentially see multiple rounds of showers and storms. Wednesday, Thursday, and into Friday: Some suggestion in model guidance that we could see a relative lull in activity as the broad troughing aloft gets replaced by zonal flow and eventually short wave ridging. However, this could change as we move into Friday and shortwave trough and attending vort max move into the area. Confidence isn't particularly high this far out, but an increase in coverage will need to be monitored closely into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding possible along the Charleston and Colleton county coast with the evening high tide. Astronomical tide values are still running high thanks to the recent lunar perigee (6/14) and new moon (6/15). In fact, the astronomical tide for this evening at Charleston is 6.66 ft MLLW. However, winds along the coast are not particularly supportive of a large positive tidal departure being from the west and southwest. Therefore, there is a chance the observed evening high tide (~9:15 pm) could reach 7 ft MLLW but confidence is low. Current thinking is that a Coastal Flood Advisory will not be needed. Marine The local waters will sit between Atlantic high pressure to the east and a surface trough inland for much of the week. This will drive moderate southwest flow through most of the period, with winds occasionally surging into the 15-20 knot range. Periodic stronger flow is expected each afternoon and evening along the land/sea interface with the sea breeze, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A better chance of needing Small Craft Advisories will come Friday as the gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. Climate Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 15 KCHS: 80/2010 June 16: KCHS: 78/1998 June 18 KCHS: 78/2015 June 19 KCHS: 79/2025 KCXM: 81/2025 KSAV: 79/1881 NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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