South Santee River to Edisto Beach, SC Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And Se 3 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 4 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And E 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Fri Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 9 Seconds. |
| Sat...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. Wave Detail: S 2 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. Wave Detail: S 3 Ft At 5 Seconds And Se 2 Ft At 8 Seconds. |
| Sun...Sw Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Sun Night...N Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 5 Ft. |
| Mon...Ne Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts To 30 Kt. Seas 4 To 6 Ft. |
| Mon Night...Ne Winds 15 To 20 Kt. Seas 3 To 4 Ft. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 230am EDT Sunday July 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as a stalled front remains in the vicinity of the South Carolina Lowcountry. - 2) Hot and humid conditions return to the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia during the middle of this week. KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as a stalled front remains in the vicinity of the South Carolina Lowcountry. The stationary front that has been lingering in the vicinity of the forecast area the last couple of days has shifted slightly, taking on a more northwest to southeast orientation. With the region still located along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough, this frontal orientation is in alignment with the mean flow. As of the 03Z WPC Surface Analysis, the front is located in the vicinity of Myrtle Beach. Through the remainder of the overnight hours and into this morning the front is expected to sag southward towards the Charleston Tri-County. With the front oriented along the mean synoptic flow, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to ripple southeastward along the front through the day today. Heavy rainfall remains the main forecast concern today, with plentiful moisture across the region. The KCHS 00Z RAOB (Radiosonde Observation or Upper-Air Observation) Sounding had a PWAT (Precipitable Water) value of 2.36", which was well above the 90th percentile according to Storm Prediction Center Climatology. PWATs (Precipitable Waters) are expected to remain in the 2.3-2.5" range through the remainder of today. The heavy rainfall threat today will be heavily tied to the location of the front. The 00Z suite of guidance is in decent agreement that the front will likely set up roughly along I-26 in SC. This would paint the greatest heavy rainfall threat over the Charleston Tri-County. The 00Z HREF probabilities are eye-catching, with a 50% contour of 3-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast >3" over the Charleston Tri-County at 21Z. Confidence on the exact positioning of the front is low and a slight shift northward or southward would greatly impact the location of the heavy rainfall threat. Another consideration is some models are depicting a weak low pressure center developing along the stalled front, which would aid in the heavy rainfall risk. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient instability for a risk of strong to severe gusts as well, and the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions return to the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia during the middle of this week. The mid-levels will consist of a very strong ridge over the Rockies and Plains early to mid week. Meanwhile, troughing will be along the Eastern Seaboard. We'll generally be on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with NNW flow overhead. At the surface, weak high pressure will prevail over or nearby early to mid next week. Hot and humid conditions are expected to return during the middle of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the hottest days of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, with some spots possibly reaching the 100 degree mark across far inland GA. Even temperatures at the coast will be in the 90s. Dewpoints are expected to be in the low 70s far inland, but pool into the mid to upper 70s at the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. This will equate to heat indices in the 100-105 degree range inland, and the 108-112 degree range for our coastal counties on Tuesday. Though, the range could increase to 110-115 degrees for our coastal counties on Wednesday. If this pans out, at least our coastal counties would need heat headlines both days. The wild card would be afternoon convection. Tuesday is looking fairly dry, but Wednesday may have scattered convection, which would quickly lower temperatures. It could also lead to strong to marginally severe storms. The heat and humidity is expected to drop to near normal values on Thursday with the arrival of a front. Marine Through Friday: A stationary front nearby will continue southwesterly winds today. Winds and seas are forecast to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday, so Small Craft Advisories may be needed for most of our waters. Climate Record High Temperatures: July 28: KCHS: 101/1949 KCXM: 100/1936 KSAV: 102/1949 July 29: KCHS: 100/1993 KCXM: 99/1999 KSAV: 103/1993 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 29: KCHS: 80/2016 KCXM: 85/1999 KSAV: 82/1878 NOAA Charleston SC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories GA...None. SC...None. Marine None. |
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